With Donald Trump’s election as president, the cryptocurrency community saw blue skies ahead.

The election sent the price of bitcoin to a record high, exceeding $75,000. After all, during the campaign Trump had vowed to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the planet” and to create a “strategic reserve” of bitcoin. He and his family members formed World Liberty Financial, a crypto trading firm.

Within three days of his inauguration, Trump issued an executive order promoting the expansion of crypto in the U.S. He denigrated enforcement efforts by the Biden administration as reflecting a “war on cryptocurrency.”

On the second day of his presidency, he pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the boss of a notorious online black market in which transactions were conducted in crypto. Ulbricht, who had become something of a hero to crypto promoters, was serving two life sentences at the time. In July, Trump signed the so-called GENIUS Act, which dilutes consumer banking protections involving stablecoins, a crypto token.

Last year, the FBI labeled crypto a hive of “pervasive” criminality. Under Trump, things are likely to get worse. Since Trump took office, the Securities and Exchange Commission has closed or deferred 18 cases or investigations related to cryptocurrency firms.

Yet despite all these tailwinds from the White House, federal agencies and a compliant Congress, cryptocurrencies are having one terrible year. The price of bitcoin closed at a record $124,752 on Oct. 10 but has since fallen to about $87,845. That’s a stomach-churning loss of almost 30% in just six weeks.

Since Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration, bitcoin has lost more than 11% of its value. In the same period, the stock market, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, has gained nearly 12%. To the question of who is getting rich on crypto in the Trump era, the answer thus far is: Trump, his family, and their friends. Everyone else has been taken to the woodshed.

Why has this happened?

To a certain extent, it’s a confluence of factors, not all of which can be blamed on Trump. But his economic policies, including his on-and-off-again tariff announcements, have certainly accounted for some of the notable crypto downdrafts of the last 11 months. Other geopolitical developments haven’t been friendly to crypto.

Another important factor is the growth of leverage in crypto accounts — users borrowing against their crypto holdings like stock investors buying on margin, a practice that can magnify gains in rising assets — but also magnify losses.

Let’s take a closer look at crypto’s terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year.

The first slap in the face with a wet fish came for crypto on Feb. 21. That’s when the crypto exchange Bybit, which is sometimes counted on the second-largest crypto exchange in the world, lost $1.5 billion in crypto tokens to hackers — “the largest cryptocurrency heist in history,” by the assessment of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. The FBI promptly traced the exploit to North Korea.

Trump can’t be blamed for the Bybit hack, but Trump’s weakening of America’s cyberdefenses doesn’t bode well for the future.

According to the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, a congressionally established body tasked with overseeing cyberdefense, Trump’s “cuts to cyber diplomacy and science programs and the absence of stable leadership at key agencies like the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Agency (CISA), the State Department, and the Department of Commerce” have resulted in the country’s ability to protect against cyber threats “stalling and, in several areas, slipping.”

That’s especially important when it involved North Korea. According to many experts, the rogue state has made up for its exclusion from the global economy by creating an alarmingly effective cyberhacking program.

Since 2017, North Korean hackers have stolen more than $5 billion in cryptocurrencies, as calculated by the cybersecurity firm TRM Labs. The North Koreans have not only made their thievery more efficient, but have also refined their money-laundering techniques to the point that the stolen booty disappears into the dark reaches of cyberspace within days.

This has undermined the crypto camp’s claim to offer users secure access to their funds. Crypto’s reaction to Trump’s economic policies has undercut the promoters’ claim that their asset class is a remedy for economic turmoil in the outside world.

“Bitcoin and other crypto assets are once again demonstrating that they are among some of the first assets to decline among broader economic uncertainty,” the indispensable crypto observer Molly White wrote in March, after Trump’s tariff threats and fears of higher inflation provoked a three-day slide of 12.6% in bitcoin—the worst downdraft since the bankruptcy of FTX in 2022. Bitcoin fell nearly 10% in the four days after Trump announced his “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2.

Another selloff erupted on Oct. 10, the day Trump abruptly announced new tariffs on China. That day became labeled “crypto’s Black Friday,” as crypto exchanges forced the liquidation of some $19 billion in leveraged holdings in 24 hours. Bitcoin lost $10,000 in value in a matter of minutes.

As White observed, the downdraft was frenzied in part because the crypto market lacks the circuit breakers installed in the stock and bond markets, which automatically halt trading before a selloff can gain steam, allowing traders and market makers to catch their breath. Nothing like that stands in the way of a tsunami of account liquidations by thinly-regulated crypto brokers.

Since then, the selling has continued almost unabated. At midday Wednesday, bitcoin has recovered by about 2.8%, but it is still appreciably lower than its price on Jan. 1 or on Inauguration Day.

Market observers say that institutional investors as well as small retail investors all have been bailing on crypto. Over the last year, banks and other financial services firms have made it easier for small investors to buy crypto — exchange traded funds and firms that have constructed themselves as crypto treasuries have proliferated.

But those devices also make it easier to sell. Investors have withdrawn an estimated $3.5 billion from crypto ETFs so far this month. The publicly traded company Strategy, the business model of which is to accumulate bitcoin, has lost some 60% of its value since mid-July.

Historical patterns suggest that the chief victims of the crypto selloff are small investors, however. They tend to buy into a stock or other asset when it is rising, and sell into a bear market (just the opposite of the buy-low, sell-high principle favored by experts). To the extent they were lured by the runup in crypto prices, they may be holding the bag just now.

That points us to the likely winners in the current crypto cycle: Trump and his circle. Trump in 2021 called bitcoin a “scam,” and in 2019 posted that the values of cryptocurrency were “based on thin air,” but he “has now warmly embraced its supposed virtues,” as federal Judge Jed S. Rakoff, who has presided over lawsuits alleging crypto-related fraud, recently wrote.

Consider World Liberty Financial, which was co-founded by Trump and his offspring Eric, Barron and Don Jr. (Trump himself is listed by the company as “co-founder emeritus,” a designation he acquired upon taking office as president.)

World Liberty’s fortunes have benefited from reported actions by Binance, the largest crypto exchange in the world. Earlier this year, Binance accepted a $2-billion investment from an Abu Dhabi-based investment firm to be paid in USD1, the dollar-linked “stablecoin” marketed by World Liberty. The acceptance of USD1 as a crypto token has added to its value, and therefore to the financial gains enjoyed by the Trump family.

On Oct. 23, Trump pardoned Binance founder Chengpeng Zhao, who had served a four-month term in U.S. prison and was fined $50 million after pleading guilty to violations of U.S. anti-money laundering regulations. Binance also pleaded guilty and paid more than $4.3 billion in settling the criminal case.

Asked during a Nov. 2 interview on “60 Minutes” why he pardoned Zhao, Trump replied, “I know nothing about the guy, other than I hear he was a victim of weaponization by government. When you say the government, you’re talking about the Biden government.”

I asked the White House whether Trump’s involvement in crypto while he held authority over crypto regulations amounted to a conflict of interest.

I received an emailed response from Trump spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt, who wrote, “The media’s continued attempts to fabricate conflicts of interest are irresponsible and reinforce the public’s distrust in what they read. Neither the President nor his family have ever engaged, or will ever engage, in conflicts of interest.”

The truth is that bitcoin investors may have less to fear from Trump’s dabbling in crypto than in the shortcomings of crypto itself as an asset class. As I’ve reported before, unlike almost any other asset, crypto tokens are untethered from anything of concrete value. That doesn’t mean that crypto will periodically drive higher, only that when holders are running for the exits, there may not be a discernible floor to how low it will go.

Crypto tokens don’t throw off interest or dividends. Their prices aren’t based on even a theoretical value of issuing enterprises such as corporations, municipalities or federal agencies. As commodities, they resemble collectibles like Beanie Babies, with values derived from the “greater fool” theory — that someone is out there willing to pay more than your acquisition cost to take them off your hands. That’s a path painted in red.

Snapchat, an app whose disappearing messages and silly face filters made chatting with loved ones more casual, is close to a milestone that few social media platforms achieve: reaching 1 billion monthly users.

But Snap, the Santa Monica company behind the app, faces a crucial test. The 14-year-old tech company is still losing money and has seen its share price tumble as it barrels forward to popularize augmented reality glasses next year.

And even though more people in developing countries are using the app, Snapchat usage in markets where the company makes more revenue per user, including the United States and Europe, has dropped.

Snapchat has 943 million monthly active users globally, according to the company.

Growth in India, where TikTok is banned, and Pakistan have fueled Snapchat’s global user growth, data from market intelligence firm Sensor Tower show. In India, Snapchat monthly users have surpassed 250 million, making up more than a quarter of its user base, according to numbers Snap released in July.

At the same time, in the third quarter, Snapchat monthly active users declined by 4% in the U.S. and double digits in France, Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom, Sensor Tower said.

Snap Chief Executive Evan Spiegel wrote in a September note to employees the company is in a “crucible moment,” comparing it to a “middle child” wedged between larger tech giants and smaller rivals.

“This moment isn’t just about survival,” Spiegel wrote in the note. “It’s about proving that a different way of building technology, one that deepens friendships and inspires creativity, can succeed in a world that often rewards the opposite.”

The 35-year-old tech executive co-founded Snapchat — initially known as Picaboo — in 2011 with friends as part of a class project while attending Stanford University. Back then, texts and photos posted on social media such as Facebook and Instagram were more permanent.

Snapchat’s logo is a ghost and the app distinguished itself from its competitors by giving people a way to share photos and messages that disappeared once someone viewed it. Instead of a social media app that opens to a feed of content, Snapchat opens to a camera.

Rather than worry about whether they looked perfect, people leaned into quirky and creative ways to express themselves. They overlaid effects onto their selfies, transforming their faces into cute dogs and even puking rainbows. The app encouraged people to keep sending these disappearing messages known as “Snaps” to their loved ones at least once a day, keeping what’s known as a “streak” alive.

As Snapchat’s popularity soared, fueling the rise of vertical videos, bigger social media rivals took notice. Snapchat’s co-founders turned down Facebook’s multibillion-dollar offer to buy the company.

Facebook and its photo-sharing app Instagram copied Snapchat’s signature features including Stories, which allowed people to post images and videos that vanish after 24 hours. This prompted some Snapchat users to flock to its rival Instagram. Spiegel jokingly titled himself as the vice president of product at Meta, Facebook’s parent company, on LinkedIn, a nod to the social media giant’s cloning of Snapchat’s features.

Although Snapchat set itself apart from other social media, it also faced similar concerns tech platforms grappled with such as child safety and mental health. The app is popular among teenagers, prompting some users to question if they’re too old for Snapchat and should leave.

Alex Sirek started using Snapchat as a teen to chat and make plans with her friends, filling the app with high school and college memories.

But as she grew up, she realized there were downsides to being on the app. She constantly opened Snapchat to check her face, which made her feel bad about her skin. When friends posted about partying or going out, she felt the fear of missing out.

Last year, looking to free up storage on her smartphone, Sirek deleted Snapchat.

After about a year, the 24-year-old San Diego fitness influencer downloaded Snapchat again but rarely uses the app.

“I kept wanting to open it, but now I just don’t even think about it,” she said. “I forget that I have it on my phone.”

Investor confidence in the company has plummeted. In 2021, Snap’s stock peaked at more than $83 per share. Snap’s share price closed Tuesday at $7.64.

Competing with larger rivals such as Instagram, Facebook, YouTube and TikTok, for ad dollars has been challenging for Snapchat and it has struggled to consistently turn a profit. Apple’s privacy feature made it tougher for advertisers to track users across apps and websites, posing an extra hurdle for social networks.

Research firm eMarketer estimates that in 2025 Snapchat will claim 2.1% of U.S. social network ad spending, but said that share is dropping.

Snapchat’s initial focus on disappearing messages made it tougher for the company to rope in advertisers because people typically don’t want to see ads in the middle of a private conversation. But the company has been updating its ad tools and expanded the places where ads are shown, including between short videos.

Although Snapchat is popular among Gen Z and millennials, its audience might limit what businesses want to advertise on its platform.

“It definitely skews a lot younger and that naturally sort of limits advertiser interests in its audience,” said Max Willens, a senior analyst at eMarketer. If a business wants to advertise retirement planning, for example, they would probably go to Facebook instead of Snapchat.

On Snapchat, advertisers have also used augmented reality effects to promote their brands in quirky ways to a young audience. Snapchat users can transform themselves into a dancing McDonald’s McRib sandwich or snap selfies with digital animals from the Disney film “Zootopia 2.”

Snap has been looking at other ways to make money. The company offers subscription plans so users can customize the app’s wallpaper, personalize their digital avatars known as Bitmojis and see how often their friends view their content. It started to limit the amount of free storage it offers to 5 gigabytes. AI company Perplexity said it will pay Snap $400 million over one year so users can find answers from its “AI-powered answer engine.”

In the third quarter, Snap revenue reached $1.5 billion, up 10% compared with the same period last year. The company narrowed its net loss to $104 million, versus a net loss of $153 million during the year-earlier period.

This month, JP Morgan analysts raised Snap’s price target to $8 after the Perplexity deal but kept an underweight rating on the shares, meaning they expect the stock to underperform.

The firm said Snap has “a sizable market opportunity, an engaged user base, and a solid track record of innovation” but it’s also looking for “more consistent execution, improved user & revenue trends, & greater profitability.”

Snap has made bold and expensive bets on the future of computing by releasing a drone and glasses to capture photos and videos — though those products flopped. Now Snap plans to release augmented reality glasses in 2026 that let people interact with digital images overlaid onto the physical world. Instead of taking out your phone, people will be able to review documents, stream movies, play chess and more through glasses.

For now, analysts say it’s too early to tell if Snap’s bets will pay off or the company will end up in the social media graveyard like Myspace or Vine.

“There’s nothing written down that says you just get to be around forever if you’re a social media platform,” Willens said. “Although almost all of those still kind of trudge along in some state or another.”