Business
U.S. economic growth remains impressive. It's the envy of the world, except at home
WASHINGTON — The last and most consequential report on the nation’s economic health before next week’s election provided more evidence of America’s resilient growth. Whether it will make a difference to voters is an open question.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that U.S. gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, expanded at a robust annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter. A country’s GDP is a tally of the value of all goods and services produced in the nation.
The growth was a slight deceleration from the 3% annualized increase in the second quarter, but U.S. economic activity continued to far outpace almost every other developed nation. “The outlook is for more of the same with growth the envy of the world,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds, a economic and markets research firm in New York.
The latest GDP increase was again powered by durable consumer spending as U.S. households have benefited from a solid job market, declining inflation and booming stock market.
“It’s impressive, phenomenal,” said Jeffrey Korzenik, chief economist at Fifth Third Bank, referring to the American economy’s exceptional run of strong output and full employment.
The Labor Department is set on Friday to release job creation and unemployment numbers for October, but analysts are discounting the report as the data are expected to be badly distorted by the temporary effects of two hurricanes and a strike by Boeing workers. In September, the American economy added 254,000 new jobs and unemployment ticked down to a historically low 4.1%.
With the third-quarter results, U.S. GDP is now projected to increase by nearly 3% for the full year, after posting similarly strong results in 2023 and the second half of 2022 . That compares with projected growth this year of about 1% or less for other leading advanced economies, including Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and Canada.
U.S. GDP reached about $82,000 last year on a per-person basis — almost double the average of rich nations and more than six times that of China, the second largest economy after the U.S., and Russia, No. 11 in total output, according to World Bank data.
“The U.S. is still the standard among developed markets,” said Stephen Juneau, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America.
Juneau sees some of the same underlying strengths in the latest report continuing to keep the economy on a steady if somewhat slower growth trajectory in the coming quarters.
The banking sector has been solid, as have corporate profits. Productivity has picked up in recent quarters. And an influx of immigrants, legal and undocumented, has boosted the labor supply, helping employers to keep growing and hold down wage inflation. “That’s been an exceptionalism of the U.S. economy — waves of immigration,” said Juneau.
They’ve also helped boost household spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic output. Consumer spending jumped 3.7% in the third quarter, as people bought more cars and spent money on healthcare services and to travel and eat out. Although lower-income and younger people are straining more to keep up with expenses and make debt payments, households on the whole are managing well.
Most people entered the sharp but brief pandemic recession in 2020 in good financial shape. And since then, their finances and spending have been supported by stable jobs — layoffs have remained unusually low — large government support, including stimulus checks, and appreciating assets. Most homeowners had locked in low mortgage rates before the Federal Reserve began jacking up interest rates in March 2022 to curb inflation.
Although job and wage gains are expected to moderate, the Fed has begun cutting interest rates now that inflation is closing in on its 2% target. That should help businesses and consumers, and give a lift to the housing market. In the third quarter, residential investment continued to be a drag on GDP, but businesses spent more for equipment especially to boost their information and transportation capabilities. That bodes well for future growth and productivity, which also has picked up in recent quarters.
U.S. imported more goods in the last quarter than it exported, which is a minus for GDP. But in places like Southern California, home to the largest warehousing and logistics operations in the U.S., that’s translated to more activity in the storage and movement of goods. The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest container complex in the nation, said it handled a record 954,706 containers in September, although some of the 27% increase reflected advanced purchases and diversions due to labor tensions at Eastern seaports.
“Right now the U.S. consumer is buying everything that isn’t nailed down,” said Rupkey. “The economy now is stronger than it was before the pandemic and trying to convince people otherwise is just completely foolhardy. The economy by almost every measure is better than it was four years ago.”
Yet while the U.S. economy may be the envy of the world, it isn’t so much at home. Polls have consistently shown Americans are mired in a sour, griping mood when it comes to the economy, which may prove to be a significant factor in the election.
Many analysts attribute the disconnect to two key elements: One is bad memories of high inflation especially in 2022, which means that prices for groceries and other goods, while now growing far more modestly, remain on the whole about 20% higher than before the pandemic. The second is that people’s feelings about the economy reflect their political leanings: Many Republicans, disregarding their own strong personal finances, have a jaundiced view of the economy under Democratic President Biden.
Korzenik, the Fifth Third Bank economist, suggests a third factor might be at play: He says there’s been a general worsening or shrinking of services for consumers, whether it’s a stay at a hotel where many now don’t do housekeeping unless requested, or a lack of experienced staff to help you at retail stores.
“I’m getting less for my money,” he said, calling it an overall “degradation of service quality.”
The American economy also has weak spots. Manufacturing activity remains soft. Strong growth in stocks and houses has come hand in hand with increased wealth inequality. And heavy federal spending in response to the pandemic added to the deficit and bloated public debts, which will crowd out investments and increase the government’s interest costs.
Of more immediate concern, there is a lot of uncertainty over the election outcome, especially because of Trump’s threats to ramp up tariffs and deport millions of undocumented immigrants, which would affect the labor market. For now, though, economists remain bullish about the outlook.
“The U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders at the current time and save a large external shock or domestic policy error, the U.S. economy is poised to close out the year on a strong economic note,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the tax and consulting firm RSM US.
Business
Nike to Cut 1,400 Jobs as Part of Its Turnaround Plan
Nike is cutting about 1,400 jobs in its operations division, mostly from its technology department, the company said Thursday.
In a note to employees, Venkatesh Alagirisamy, the chief operating officer of Nike, said that management was nearly done reorganizing the business for its turnaround plan, and that the goal was to operate with “more speed, simplicity and precision.”
“This is not a new direction,” Mr. Alagirisamy told employees. “It is the next phase of the work already underway.”
Nike, the world’s largest sportswear company, is trying to recover after missteps led to a prolonged sales slump, in which the brand leaned into lifestyle products and away from performance shoes and apparel. Elliott Hill, the chief executive, has worked to realign the company around sports and speed up product development to create more breakthrough innovations.
In March, Nike told investors that it expected sales to fall this year, with growth in North America offset by poor performance in Asia, where the brand is struggling to rejuvenate sales in China. Executives said at the time that more volatility brought on by the war in the Middle East and rising oil prices might continue to affect its business.
The reorganization has involved cuts across many parts of the organization, including at its headquarters in Beaverton, Ore. Nike slashed some corporate staff last year and eliminated nearly 800 jobs at distribution centers in January.
“You never want to have to go through any sort of layoffs, but to re-center the company, we’re doing some of that,” Mr. Hill said in an interview earlier this year.
Mr. Alagirisamy told employees that Nike was reshaping its technology team and centering employees at its headquarters and a tech center in Bengaluru, India. The layoffs will affect workers across North America, Europe and Asia.
The cuts will also affect staffing in Nike’s factories for Air, the company’s proprietary cushioning system. Employees who work on the supply chain for raw materials will also experience changes as staff is integrated into footwear and apparel teams.
Nike’s Converse brand, which has struggled for years to revive sales, will move some of its engineering resources closer to the factories they support, the company said.
Mr. Alagirisamy said the moves were necessary to optimize Nike’s supply chain, deploy technology faster and bolster relationships with suppliers.
Business
Senate committee kills bill mandating insurance coverage for wildfire safe homes
A bill that would have required insurers to offer coverage to homeowners who take steps to reduce wildfire risk on their property died in the Legislature.
The Senate Insurance Committee on Monday voted down the measure, SB 1076, one of the most ambitious bills spurred by the devastating January 2025 wildfires.
The vote came despite fire victims and others rallying at the state Capitol in support of the measure, authored by state Sen. Sasha Renée Pérez (D-Pasadena), whose district includes the Eaton fire zone.
The Insurance Coverage for Fire-Safe Homes Act originally would have required insurers to offer and renew coverage for any home that meets wildfire-safety standards adopted by the insurance commissioner starting Jan. 1, 2028.
It also threatened insurers with a five-year ban from the sale of home or auto insurance if they did not comply, though it allowed for exceptions.
However, faced with strong opposition from the insurance industry, Pérez had agreed to amend the bill so it would have established community-wide pilot projects across the state to better understand the most effective way to limit property and insurance losses from wildfires.
Insurers would have had to offer four years of coverage to homeowners in successful pilot projects.
Denni Ritter, a vice president of the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn., told the committee that her trade group opposed the bill.
“While we appreciate the intent behind those conversations, those concepts do not remove our opposition, because they retain the same core flaw — substituting underwriting judgment and solvency safeguards with a statutory mandate to accept risk,” she said.
In voting against the bill Sen. Laura Richardson, (D-San Pedro), said: “Last I heard, in the United States, we don’t require any company to do anything. That’s the difference between capitalism and communism, frankly.”
The remarks against the measure prompted committee Chair Sen. Steve Padilla, (D-Chula Vista), to chastise committee members in opposition.
“I’m a little perturbed, and I’m a little disappointed, because you have someone who is trying to work with industry, who is trying to get facts and data,” he said.
Monday’s vote was the fourth time a bill that would have required insurers to offer coverage to so-called “fire hardened” homes failed in the Legislature since 2020, according to an analysis by insurance committee staff.
Fire hardening includes measures such as cutting back brush, installing fire resistant roofs and closing eaves to resist fire embers.
Pérez’s legislation was thought to have a better chance of passage because it followed the most catastrophic wildfires in U.S. history, which damaged or destroyed more than 18,000 structures and killed 31 people.
The bill was co-sponsored by the Los Angeles advocacy group Consumer Watchdog and Every Fire Survivor’s Network, a community group founded in Altadena after the fires formerly called the Eaton Fire Survivors Network.
But it also had broad support from groups such as the California Apartment Association, the California Nurses Association and California Environmental Voters.
Leading up to the fires, many insurers, citing heightened fire risk, had dropped policyholders in fire-prone neighorhoods. That forced them onto the California FAIR Plan, the state’s insurer of last resort, which offers limited but costly policies.
A Times analysis found that that in the Palisades and Eaton fire zones, the FAIR Plan’s rolls from 2020 to 2024 nearly doubled from 14,272 to 28,440. Mandating coverage has been seen as a way of reducing FAIR Plan enrollment.
“I’m disappointed this bill died in committee. Fire survivors deserved better,” Pérez said in a statement .
Also failing Monday in the committee was SB 982, a bill authored by Sen. Scott Wiener, (D-San Francisco). It would have authorized California’s attorney general to sue fossil fuel companies to recover losses from climate-induced disasters. It was opposed by the oil and gas industry.
Passing the committee were two other Pérez bills. SB 877 requires insurers to provide more transparency in the claims process. SB 878 imposes a penalty on insurers who don’t make claims payments on time.
Another bill, SB 1301, authored by insurance commissioner candidate Sen. Ben Allen, (D-Pacific Palisades), also passed. It protects policyholders from unexplained and abrupt policy non-renewals.
Business
How We Cover the White House Correspondents’ Dinner
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Politicians in Washington and the reporters who cover them have an often adversarial relationship.
But on the last Saturday in April, they gather for an irreverent celebration of press freedom and the First Amendment at the Washington Hilton Hotel: The White House Correspondents’ Association dinner.
Hosted by the association, an organization that helps ensure access for media outlets covering the presidency, the dinner attracts Hollywood stars; politicians from both parties; and representatives of more than 100 networks, newspapers, magazines and wire services.
While The Times will have two reporters in the ballroom covering the event, the company no longer buys seats at the party, said Richard W. Stevenson, the Washington bureau chief. The decision goes back almost two decades; the last dinner The Times attended as an organization was in 2007.
“We made a judgment back then that the event had become too celebrity-focused and was undercutting our need to demonstrate to readers that we always seek to maintain a proper distance from the people we cover, many of whom attend as guests,” he said.
It’s a decision, he added, that “we have stuck by through both Republican and Democratic administrations, although we support the work of the White House Correspondents’ Association.”
Susan Wessling, The Times’s Standards editor, said the policy is a product of the organization’s desire to maintain editorial independence.
“We don’t want to leave readers with any questions about our independence and credibility by seeming to be overly friendly with people whose words and actions we need to report on,” she said.
The celebrity mentalist Oz Pearlman is headlining the evening, in lieu of the usual comedy set by the likes of Stephen Colbert and Hasan Minhaj, but all eyes will be on President Trump, who will make his first appearance at the dinner as president.
Mr. Trump has boycotted the event since 2011, when he was the butt of punchlines delivered by President Barack Obama and the talk show host Seth Meyers mocking his hair, his reality TV show and his preoccupation with the “birther” movement.
Last month, though, Mr. Trump, who has a contentious relationship with the media, announced his intention to attend this year’s dinner, where he will speak to a room full of the same reporters he often derides as “enemies of the people.”
Times reporters will be there to document the highs, the lows and the reactions in the room. A reporter for the Styles desk has also been assigned to cover the robust roster of after-parties around Washington.
Some off-duty reporters from The Times will also be present at this late-night circuit, though everyone remains cognizant of their roles, said Patrick Healy, The Times’s assistant managing editor for Standards and Trust.
“If they’re reporting, there’s a notebook or recorder out as usual,” he said. “If they’re not, they’re pros who know they’re always identifiable as Times journalists.”
For most of The Times’s reporters and editors, though, the evening will be experienced from home.
“The rest of us will be able to follow the coverage,” Mr. Stevenson said, “without having to don our tuxes or gowns.”
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