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Trump’s Economy at One Year: Food Prices, Stock Market and More

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Trump’s Economy at One Year: Food Prices, Stock Market and More

President Trump campaigned in 2024 on promises to “end inflation,” bring back manufacturing jobs and deliver an economic boom. A year after he returned to the White House, he has yet to deliver on those pledges. Still, there has been progress in some areas, and the economy has proved surprisingly resilient.

Here are eight of the promises Mr. Trump made as a candidate, and where things stand after his first year back in office.

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Food Prices

Prices are down for a few specific grocery categories, like eggs, but are up sharply in others, like beef. Overall, food inflation has slowed significantly since peaking in 2022, but it has actually picked up somewhat since Mr. Trump returned to office — December saw the biggest one-month increase in grocery prices since 2022.

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Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. The New York Times

Mr. Trump often went even further on the campaign trail, promising to “bring down the prices of all goods.” Economists say that was never credible — and, indeed, outright declines in prices, known as deflation, are generally a sign of a deep economic slump. But they say inflation might have cooled more this year if Mr. Trump hadn’t imposed tariffs on a broad range of imported goods.

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Gas Prices

Gas prices have fallen under Mr. Trump, though not to the sub-$2 level that he promised on the campaign trail. The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $2.78 in early January, according to the Energy Information Administration, down from just over $3 a year earlier. Gas prices hit a record high of more than $5 a gallon in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but had fallen significantly even before Mr. Trump returned to office.

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Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted. Source: Energy Information Administration. The New York Times

Energy experts generally say presidents have little control over the price of oil. The major factors driving the recent decline, including robust domestic oil production, were in place long before Mr. Trump returned to office, although his trade policies may also have played a role by leading to lower forecasts for global growth. Still, prices at the pump are the lowest they’ve been in nearly five years.

Electricity Prices

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Campaign rally in Asheville, N.C., Aug. 14, 2024

“Under my leadership, the United States will commit to the ambitious goal of slashing energy and electricity prices by half, at least half. We intend to slash prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months.”

Hasn’t happened

Unlike gasoline, the electricity market is extremely regional, with different parts of the country paying sharply different prices for power. On average, however, residential electricity prices in December were up 6.7 percent from a year earlier, and have risen far more in some areas.

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Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. The New York Times

Power prices are being driven in part by rising demand from the data centers used to train and run artificial intelligence models. That has created a political liability for Mr. Trump, whose administration has embraced the A.I. boom. Rising electric bills were a major issue in gubernatorial races last year, and are expected to feature heavily in midterm campaigns this year.

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The Auto Industry

U.S. auto production peaked in the mid-1980s and has fallen steadily since then. That decline showed little sign of reversing during Mr. Trump’s first year back in office. Globally, U.S. carmakers have lost ground to foreign competitors, particularly Chinese companies specializing in affordable electric vehicles. Employment in the automaking sector has fallen by about 28,000 jobs in the past year.

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. The New York Times

Manufacturing Jobs

Campaign speech in Savannah, Ga., Sept. 25, 2024

“This new American industrialism will create millions and millions of jobs, massively raise wages for American workers, and make the United States into a manufacturing powerhouse like it used to be many years ago.”

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Hasn’t happened

Manufacturing employment was roughly flat in Mr. Trump’s first few months back in the White House, but has now fallen for eight straight months. Wage growth for rank-and-file factory workers also slowed in 2025.

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. The New York Times

Mr. Trump’s supporters say it will take time for his trade policies to translate into factory jobs. But critics note that investment in factory construction, which should respond more quickly to policy changes, has also fallen.

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Stock Market

NRA event in Dallas, May 18, 2024

“We are a nation whose stock market’s continued success is contingent on MAGA winning the next election.”

So far, so good

Mr. Trump’s first year was a wild one for the stock market. At one point last spring, the S&P 500 closed down nearly 18 percent from its peak, narrowly avoiding the 20 percent drop that is the conventional definition of a bear market. But despite several other jittery moments, stocks ended 2025 up 16 percent, making it a strong year.

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Some of the ups and downs were the direct results of Mr. Trump’s policies. Stocks fell more than 10 percent in two days in early April after Mr. Trump announced tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners. They rallied by nearly as much when Mr. Trump rolled back many of those tariffs a few days later.

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Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted. Source: LSEG Data & Analytics. The New York Times

But the driving force behind the market gains was investor optimism about artificial intelligence. Companies tied to the A.I. boom saw their stock prices soar, even as some other sectors lagged. That increasing concentration has fueled concerns that the bull market could be vulnerable if A.I. proves to be a bubble.

Tariff revenue

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Campaign rally in Juneau, Wisc., Oct. 6, 2024

“We will use the hundreds and billions — it’s really trillions, OK, but we’re going to use the hundreds of billions — of tariff dollars to benefit American citizens and to pay off debt because we have to start paying off debt.”

Some progress

The U.S. Treasury collected a record $264 billion in tariff revenue in 2025, more than three times the total in 2024. In November, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the tariffs would bring in about $2.5 trillion in revenue through 2035, about half as much as the corporate income tax. That assumes the tariffs remain in place, however — the Supreme Court is considering a legal challenge that could invalidate some of the duties.

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Note: Data is not seasonally adjusted. Source: Treasury Department. The New York Times

Even if tariffs remain in place, the debt will continue to grow because tariffs won’t fully offset the lost revenue from the tax cuts that Mr. Trump signed into law last year. That bill will add $3.4 trillion to the deficit over 10 years, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

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Trade deficit

As a candidate, Mr. Trump promised his tariffs would discourage imports and encourage companies to shift production back to the United States, shrinking the trade deficit. In his first months back in office, the opposite occurred: The trade deficit exploded as companies rushed to import goods to get ahead of tariffs.

Imports dropped off sharply once Mr. Trump’s trade policies took effect, narrowing the deficit significantly late in the year. But imports could pick up again once companies sell through their inventories, and there has been little evidence of companies moving production back to the United States in a major way.

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Note: Data is trade in goods, not services, and is not seasonally adjusted. Source: Census Bureau. The New York Times

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China is a somewhat different story. The U.S.-China trade deficit peaked during Mr. Trump’s first term and has declined since then, as both the Trump and Biden administrations imposed tariffs and other restrictions on trade with China. But some Chinese companies are routing trade through other countries to avoid U.S. duties, making it hard to estimate exactly how much imports from China have fallen.

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After Warner Bros. merger, changes are coming to the historic Paramount lot. Here’s what to expect

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After Warner Bros. merger, changes are coming to the historic Paramount lot. Here’s what to expect

With Paramount Skydance’s acquisition of Warner Bros. expected to saddle the combined company with $79 billion in debt, Paramount executives are looking to do away with redundant assets including real estate — and there is a lot of that.

Chief in the public’s imagination are their historic studios in Burbank and Hollywood, where legendary films and television show have been made for generations and continue to operate year-round.

“Both of these studios are in the core [30-mile zone,] the inner circle of where Hollywood talent wants to be,” entertainment property broker Nicole Mihalka of CBRE said. “It’s very prime real estate.”

When Sony and Apollo were bidding for Paramount in early 2024, their plan was to sell the Paramount property, but there is no indication that Paramount would part with its namesake lot.

For now, Paramount’s plan is to keep both studios operating with each studio releasing about 15 films a year, but the goal is to eventually consolidate most of the studio operations around the Warner Bros. lot in Burbank in order to to eliminate redundancies with the Paramount lot on Melrose Avenue, people close to Chief Executive David Ellison said.

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A view of the Warner Bros. Studios water tower Feb. 23, 2026, in Burbank.

(Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times)

Paramount would not look to raze its celebrated studio lot — the oldest operating film studio in Los Angeles — because of various restrictions on historic buildings there. Paramount also has a relatively new post-production facility on site and will likely need to the studio space.

Instead, the plan would be to lease out space for film productions, including those from combined Paramount-HBO streaming operations. Ellison also is considering plans to develop other parts of the 65-acre site for possible retail use, as well as renting space for commercial offices.

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The studios’ combined property holdings are vast, and real estate data provider CoStar estimates they have about 12 million square feet of overlapping uses, including their studio campuses, offices and long-term leases in such film centers as Burbank, Hollywood and New York.

Century-old Paramount Pictures Studios is awash in Hollywood history — think Gloria Swanson as Norma Desmond desperately trying to enter its famous gate in “Sunset Boulevard,” and other classics such as “The Godfather,” “Titanic” and “Breakfast at Tiffany’s.”

The lot, however, is a congested warren of stages, offices, trailers and support facilities such as woodworking mills that date to the early 20th century. The layout is byzantine in part because Paramount bought the former rival RKO studio lot from Desilu Productions to create the lot known today.

Warner Bros. occupies 11 million square feet and owns 14 properties totaling 9.5 million square feet, largely in the United States and United Kingdom, CoStar said. About 3 million square feet of that commercial property is in the Los Angeles area.

The firm’s portfolio also includes the sprawling Warner Bros. Studios Leavesden complex in the U.K. and Turner Broadcasting System headquarters in Atlanta.

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Paramount Skydance occupies 8 million square feet and owns 14 properties totaling 2.1 million square feet, according to CoStar. In addition to its Hollywood campus, Paramount’s holdings include prominent buildings in New York such as the Ed Sullivan Theater and CBS Broadcast Center.

Warner Bros. operates a 3-million-square-foot lot in Burbank with more than 30 soundstages — along with space for building sets and backlot areas — where famous movies including “Casablanca” and television shows such as “Friends” were filmed. Paramount’s 1.2-million-square-foot Melrose campus anchors a broader network of owned and leased production space, CoStar said.

Paramount’s lot is already cleared for more development. More than a decade ago, Paramount secured city approval to add 1.4 million square feet to its headquarters and some adjacent properties owned by the company.

The redevelopment plan, valued at $700 million in 2016, underwent years of environmental review and public outreach with neighbors and local business owners.

The plan would allow for construction of up to 1.9 million square feet of new stage, production office, support, office, and retail uses, and the removal of up to 537,600 square feet of existing stage, production office, support, office, and retail uses, for a net increase of nearly 1.4 million square feet.

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The proposal preserves elements of the past by focusing future development on specific portions of the lot along Melrose and limited areas in the production core, architecture firm Rios said.

The Warner Bros. and Paramount lots “are two of the most prime pieces of real estate in the country,” Mihalka said. “These are legacy assets with a lot of potential to be [tourist] attractions in addition to working studios.”

Hollywood is still reeling from previous mergers, in addition to a sharp pullback in film and television production locally as filmmakers chase tax credits offered overseas and in other states, including New York and New Jersey.

Last year, lawmakers boosted the annual amount allocated to the state’s film and TV tax credit program and expanded the criteria for eligible projects in an attempt to lure production back to California. So far, more than 100 film and TV projects have been awarded tax credits under the revamped program.

The benefits have been slow to materialize, but Mihalka predicts that the tax credits and desirability of working close to home will lead to more studio use in the Los Angeles area, including at Warner Bros. and Paramount.

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“These are such prime locations that we’ll see show runners and talent push back on having shows located out of state and insist on being here,” she said. “I think you’re going to see more positive movement here.”

Times staff writer Meg James contributed to this report.

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How our AI bots are ignoring their programming and giving hackers superpowers

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How our AI bots are ignoring their programming and giving hackers superpowers

Welcome to the age of AI hacking, in which the right prompts make amateurs into master hackers.

A group of cybercriminals recently used off-the-shelf artificial intelligence chatbots to steal data on nearly 200 million taxpayers. The bots provided the code and ready-to-execute plans to bypass firewalls.

Although they were explicitly programmed to refuse to help hackers, the bots were duped into abetting the cybercrime.

According to a recent report from Israeli cybersecurity firm Gambit Security, hackers last month used Claude, the chatbot from Anthropic, to steal 150 gigabytes of data from Mexican government agencies.

Claude initially refused to cooperate with the hacking attempts and even denied requests to cover the hackers’ digital tracks, the experts who discovered the breach said. The group pummelled the bot with more than 1,000 prompts to bypass the safeguards and convince Claude they were allowed to test the system for vulnerabilities.

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AI companies have been trying to create unbreakable chains on their AI models to restrain them from helping do things such as generating child sexual content or aiding in sourcing and creating weapons. They hire entire teams to try to break their own chatbots before someone else does.

But in this case, hackers continuously prompted Claude in creative ways and were able to “jailbreak” the chatbot to assist them. When they encountered problems with Claude, the hackers used OpenAI’s ChatGPT for data analysis and to learn which credentials were required to move through the system undetected.

The group used AI to find and exploit vulnerabilities, bypass defences, create backdoors and analyze data along the way to gain control of the systems before they stole 195 million identities from nine Mexican government systems, including tax records, vehicle registration as well as birth and property details.

AI “doesn’t sleep,” Curtis Simpson, chief executive of Gambit Security, said in a blog post. “It collapses the cost of sophistication to near zero.”

“No amount of prevention investment would have made this attack impossible,” he said.

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Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment. It told Bloomberg that it had banned the accounts involved and disrupted their activity after an investigation.

OpenAI said it is aware of the attack campaign carried out using Anthropic’s models against the Mexican government agencies.

“We also identified other attempts by the adversary to use our models for activities that violate our usage policies; our models refused to comply with these attempts,” an OpenAI spokesperson said in a statement. “We have banned the accounts used by this adversary and value the outreach from Gambit Security.”

Instances of generative AI-assisted hacking are on the rise, and the threat of cyberattacks from bots acting on their own is no longer science fiction. With AI doing their bidding, novices can cause damage in moments, while experienced hackers can launch many more sophisticated attacks with much less effort.

Earlier this year, Amazon discovered that a low-skilled hacker used commercially available AI to breach 600 firewalls. Another took control of thousands of DJI robot vacuums with help from Claude, and was able to access live video feed, audio and floor plans of strangers.

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“The kinds of things we’re seeing today are only the early signs of the kinds of things that AIs will be able to do in a few years,” said Nikola Jurkovic, an expert working on reducing risks from advanced AI. “So we need to urgently prepare.”

Late last year, Anthropic warned that society has reached an “inflection point” in AI use in cybersecurity after disrupting what the company said was a Chinese state-sponsored espionage campaign that used Claude to infiltrate 30 global targets, including financial institutions and government agencies.

Generative AI also has been used to extort companies, create realistic online profiles by North Korean operatives to secure jobs in U.S. Fortune 500 companies, run romance scams and operate a network of Russian propaganda accounts.

Over the last few years, AI models have gone from being able to manage tasks lasting only a few seconds to today’s AI agents working autonomously for many hours. AI’s capability to complete long tasks is doubling every seven months.

“We just don’t actually know what is the upper limit of AI’s capability, because no one’s made benchmarks that are difficult enough so the AI can’t do them,” said Jurkovic, who works at METR, a nonprofit that measures AI system capabilities to cause catastrophic harm to society.

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So far, the most common use of AI for hacking has been social engineering. Large language models are used to write convincing emails to dupe people out of their money, causing an eight-fold increase in complaints from older Americans as they lost $4.9 billion in online fraud in 2025.

“The messages used to elicit a click from the target can now be generated on a per-user basis more efficiently and with fewer tell-tale signs of phishing,” such as grammatical and spelling errors, said Cliff Neuman, an associate professor of computer science at USC.

AI companies have been responding using AI to detect attacks, audit code and patch vulnerabilities.

“Ultimately, the big imbalance stems from the need of the good-actors to be secure all the time, and of the bad-actors to be right only once,” Neuman said.

The stakes around AI are rising as it infiltrates every aspect of the economy. Many are concerned that there is insufficient understanding of how to ensure it cannot be misused by bad actors or nudged to go rogue.

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Even those at the top of the industry have warned users about the potential misuse of AI.

Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, has long advocated that the AI systems being built are unpredictable and difficult to control. These AIs have shown behaviors as varied as deception and blackmail, to scheming and cheating by hacking software.

Still, major AI companies — OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and Google — signed contracts with the U.S. government to use their AIs in military operations.

This last week, the Pentagon directed federal agencies to phase out Claude after the company refused to back down on its demand that it wouldn’t allow its AI to be used for mass domestic surveillance and fully autonomous weapons.

“The AI systems of today are nowhere near reliable enough to make fully autonomous weapons,” Amodei told CBS News.

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iPic movie theater chain files for bankruptcy

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iPic movie theater chain files for bankruptcy

The iPic dine-in movie theater chain has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and intends to pursue a sale of its assets, citing the difficult post-pandemic theatrical market.

The Boca Raton, Fla.-based company has 13 locations across the U.S., including in Pasadena and Westwood, according to a Feb. 25 filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of Florida, West Palm Beach division.

As part of the bankruptcy process, the Pasadena and Westwood theaters will be permanently closed, according to WARN Act notices filed with the state of California’s Employment Development Department.

The company came to its conclusion after “exploring a range of possible alternatives,” iPic Chief Executive Patrick Quinn said in a statement.

“We are committed to continuing our business operations with minimal impact throughout the process and will endeavor to serve our customers with the high standard of care they have come to expect from us,” he said.

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The company will keep its current management to maintain day-to-day operations while it goes through the bankruptcy process, iPic said in the statement. The last day of employment for workers in its Pasadena and Westwood locations is April 28, according to a state WARN Act notice. The chain has 1,300 full- and part-time employees, with 193 workers in California.

The theatrical business, including the exhibition industry, still has not recovered from the pandemic’s effect on consumer behavior. Last year, overall box office revenue in the U.S. and Canada totaled about $8.8 billion, up just 1.6% compared with 2024. Even more troubling is that industry revenue in 2025 was down 22.1% compared with pre-pandemic 2019’s totals.

IPic noted those trends in its bankruptcy filing, describing the changes in consumer behavior as “lasting” and blaming the rise of streaming for “fundamentally” altering the movie theater business.

“These industry shifts have directly reduced box office revenues and related ancillary revenues, including food and beverage sales,” the company stated in its bankruptcy filing.

IPic also attributed its decision to rising rents and labor costs.

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The company estimated it owed about $141,000 in taxes and about $2.7 million in total unsecured claims. The company’s assets were valued at about $155.3 million, the majority of which coming from theater equipment and furniture. Its liabilities totaled $113.9 million.

The chain had previously filed for bankruptcy protection in 2019.

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