Business
Shift in China-U.S. trade is hurting California, helping Texas
As if it weren’t worrisome enough for California that more highly skilled, highly paid workers have been leaving for Texas, evidence shows that the Lone Star State has begun to siphon trade dollars and uncounted jobs away from the Southland’s ports and the distribution hubs in the Inland Empire.
And the apparent cause of the new wrinkle in the Texas-California rivalry is not some new policies or programs adopted in Texas to make it a greater magnet for economic activity that was previously in California. Instead, it’s a consequence of the U.S.-China trade war that began when Donald Trump occupied the White House and has continued with President Biden’s efforts to reduce American dependence on China, especially for high-tech products that involve national security and other issues.
To get around the U.S. tariffs and trade restrictions, Chinese companies have sharply stepped up investments into Mexico and been moving products into the United States by truck instead of shipping by sea through the massive port and distribution systems in Southern California.
The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are the busiest in the nation and handle about 40% of all ocean cargo from Asia. But last year the number of 20-foot-equivalent containers from China entering the San Pedro ports complex fell a combined 12.5% from 2022, to the lowest level in at least a decade, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.
“If we’re doing less business, it means fewer jobs, quite simply,” said Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles. He said that every four containers translate into one job. “Economically, where all of us spend our money, if we don’t have this cargo coming through, it will be less — and there will be choices to be made.”
China’s share of all containers entering the Port of L.A. still remains dominant, at 53% last year, although that’s down from 57% in 2022. Seroka sees that percentage slipping to the mid-40s in the coming years.
The Southland’s cargo volume, overall, has picked up significantly in recent months, thanks to the end of labor contract talks and diversions to the West Coast due to military conflict and drought disrupting the Suez and Panama canals, respectively.
But longer term, Seroka said a dwindling of Chinese inbound containers has to be made up elsewhere. In addition to some 15,000 longshoremen, the two ports support hundreds of thousands of jobs in the region — in trucking, warehousing, trade finances and countless small businesses.
California’s stringent environmental regulations and high business costs add to the pressure.
To be sure, increased Mexican imports also benefit Southern California, which historically has gotten a large volume of overland trade, particularly electronic products coming up the San Diego border. But the biggest entry point for Mexican goods is Laredo, Texas, just north of the big manufacturing center in Monterrey, Mexico, and then El Paso, close to Juarez.
“Since more and more goods are coming from Mexico, Texas is geographically and conveniently located,” said Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at Loyola Marymount University.
Tom Fullerton, a border business economist at the University of Texas in El Paso, said a lot of things made in Mexico are intermediate components, many of which go back and forth across the border as many as a dozen times. Some 90% is transported by trucks. No wonder employment for truck drivers in Texas has been growing nonstop, while California’s has come to a screeching halt, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“Increased Chinese investment simply creates more business opportunities for firms in Texas,” Fullerton said.
At the moment, trade economies in both Texas and California face some head winds, including a slowing U.S. economy as a result of anti-inflation efforts, plus cutbacks by retailers and other buyers that overstocked merchandise even as American consumers have been shifting their spending from stuff to services, such as travel and entertainment.
“Now that we filled the house with everything, everything we could wear and use for years, they’re saying, ‘Let’s go to the movies, the ballgame,’” said Jock O’Connell, a California trade specialist at Beacon Economics. “U.S. demand for imported goods from anywhere is slacking.”
Last year U.S. imports of all merchandise from China, by ship and air, fell by a whopping 20% from 2022, to $427 billion. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that Chinese imports in January were up slightly from December, but down 6% from January 2023.
Meantime, U.S. imports from Mexico continued to rise in January and compared with a year earlier, extending the lead over China. Mexican imports jumped after the worst of the pandemic passed and reached $476 billion last year. It was the first time in more than two decades that Americans bought more merchandise from Mexico than China.
Overall, the U.S. trade deficit of all goods and services fell last year by almost 19%, the largest drop since 2009, as Americans bought less foreign oil and fewer China-made phones, toys and household goods. In January, the trade deficit increased, to $89 billion, as American exports were lower than December and year-earlier figures.
Efforts to diversify production away from China have been going on for years, in part as a hedge against political risks and rising labor and business costs in China. But the move to Mexico and some other nations gained speed after then-President Trump in 2018 slapped large tariffs on a wide array of Chinese imports.
President Biden hasn’t lifted them, and in some ways further tightened the trade screws on China. The pandemic added to the so-called reshoring or near-shoring momentum as multinationals, stung by a breakdown in transport and supply chains, sought to be closer to their markets.
Harry Moser, founder of the Reshoring Initiative to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., said the changes in trade volume by country don’t tell the full story. Although he called the drop in the American trade deficit with China last year a good thing, Moser questioned whether the U.S. is really less dependent on China.
What’s happening, he argued, is that there’s considerable rerouting of trade from China through Mexico. And he fears it could get worse, pointing to the Chinese firm BYD’s plans to build an electric vehicle factory in Mexico for export to the U.S. Even Tesla, which makes its cars in Shanghai as well as Texas, is apparently urging some of its Chinese suppliers to locate in Mexico, he said.
“It’s not time to celebrate the China news,” Moser said of the reported drop in Chinese imports to the U.S.
Apparently there’s no cause to celebrate in the Southland either.
Chinese automotive parts companies have been among the most aggressive in stepping up investments in Mexico. Thirty-three car parts suppliers of Chinese origin are now registered in Mexico, and 18 exported $1.1 billion worth of products to the U.S. last year, up 15% from 2022, said Michelle Sagrero, communications manager at INA, the auto parts industry association in Mexico. She said more Chinese investments are in the works, though she said it was too early to disclose how many companies.
Overall, Chinese foreign direct investment, while stalling in the U.S., has kept growing in Mexico and topped $2.5 billion in 2022, a fivefold increase from 2000-04, according to Red ALC-China, a nonpartisan network of academics in Mexico and other countries. The tally for Chinese investments in 2023 hasn’t been published yet, but “it’ll be substantially higher,” said Enrique Dussel Peters, coordinator for the Center for Chinese-Mexican Studies at UNAM, a university in Mexico City.
The U.S.-China trade war has undoubtedly played a big role, he said. In his study for a United Nations economic group, Dussel Peters found that in 2021, companies exporting goods from China to the U.S. paid 18.8% of the value of their shipment in tariffs and transportation costs. The comparable costs for Mexico-originated exports to the U.S. — 1.05%.
“The difference is substantial, to put it politely,” he said.
Dussel Peters said he expects more Chinese and other foreign companies to invest and set up shop in Mexico. Mexico has free trade pacts not only with the U.S. but also a few dozen other nations, and it has its own sizable domestic market too. But he noted that there is one potential hitch. Thus far, Washington hasn’t come down hard in pressuring Mexico to follow the U.S. on China trade and investments.
“There is always the threat that the U.S. becomes more serious about complying with U.S. regulations and restrictions,” Dussel Peters said. “You can’t continue with a trade war and profound conflict and have a major partner of the U.S. with a sign saying to the Chinese, ‘Welcome to Mexico.’”
Business
Versant launches, Comcast spins off E!, CNBC and MS NOW
Comcast has officially spun off its cable channels, including CNBC and MS NOW, into a separate company, Versant Media Group.
The transaction was completed late Friday. On Monday, Versant took a major tumble in its stock market debut — providing a key test of investors’ willingness to hold on to legacy cable channels.
The initial outlook wasn’t pretty, providing awkward moments for CNBC anchors reporting the story.
Versant fell 13% to $40.57 a share on its inaugural trading day. The stock opened Monday on Nasdaq at $45.17 per share.
Comcast opted to cast off the still-profitable cable channels, except for the perennially popular Bravo, as Wall Street has soured on the business, which has been contracting amid a consumer shift to streaming.
Versant’s market performance will be closely watched as Warner Bros. Discovery attempts to separate its cable channels, including CNN, TBS and Food Network, from Warner Bros. studios and HBO later this year. Warner Chief Executive David Zaslav’s plan, which is scheduled to take place in the summer, is being contested by the Ellison family’s Paramount, which has launched a hostile bid for all of Warner Bros. Discovery.
Warner Bros. Discovery has agreed to sell itself to Netflix in an $82.7-billion deal.
The market’s distaste for cable channels has been playing out in recent years. Paramount found itself on the auction block two years ago, in part because of the weight of its struggling cable channels, including Nickelodeon, Comedy Central and MTV.
Management of the New York-based Versant, including longtime NBCUniversal sports and television executive Mark Lazarus, has been bullish on the company’s balance sheet and its prospects for growth. Versant also includes USA Network, Golf Channel, Oxygen, E!, Syfy, Fandango, Rotten Tomatoes, GolfNow, GolfPass and SportsEngine.
“As a standalone company, we enter the market with the scale, strategy and leadership to grow and evolve our business model,” Lazarus, who is Versant’s chief executive, said Monday in a statement.
Through the spin-off, Comcast shareholders received one share of Versant Class A common stock or Versant Class B common stock for every 25 shares of Comcast Class A common stock or Comcast Class B common stock, respectively. The Versant shares were distributed after the close of Comcast trading Friday.
Comcast gained about 3% on Monday, trading around $28.50.
Comcast Chairman Brian Roberts holds 33% of Versant’s controlling shares.
Business
Ties between California and Venezuela go back more than a century with Chevron
As a stunned world processes the U.S. government’s sudden intervention in Venezuela — debating its legality, guessing who the ultimate winners and losers will be — a company founded in California with deep ties to the Golden State could be among the prime beneficiaries.
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves on the planet. Chevron, the international petroleum conglomerate with a massive refinery in El Segundo and headquartered, until recently, in San Ramon, is the only foreign oil company that has continued operating there through decades of revolution.
Other major oil companies, including ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil, pulled out of Venezuela in 2007 when then-President Hugo Chávez required them to surrender majority ownership of their operations to the country’s state-controlled oil company, PDVSA.
But Chevron remained, playing the “long game,” according to industry analysts, hoping to someday resume reaping big profits from the investments the company started making there almost a century ago.
Looks like that bet might finally pay off.
In his news conference Saturday, after U.S. Special Forces snatched Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife in Caracas and extradited them to face drug-trafficking charges in New York, President Trump said the U.S. would “run” Venezuela and open more of its massive oil reserves to American corporations.
“We’re going to have our very large U.S. oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,” Trump said during a news conference Saturday.
While oil industry analysts temper expectations by warning it could take years to start extracting significant profits given Venezuela’s long-neglected, dilapidated infrastructure, and everyday Venezuelans worry about the proceeds flowing out of the country and into the pockets of U.S. investors, there’s one group who could be forgiven for jumping with unreserved joy: Chevron insiders who championed the decision to remain in Venezuela all these years.
But the company’s official response to the stunning turn of events has been poker-faced.
“Chevron remains focused on the safety and well-being of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets,” spokesman Bill Turenne emailed The Times on Sunday, the same statement the company sent to news outlets all weekend. “We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations.”
Turenne did not respond to questions about the possible financial rewards for the company stemming from this weekend’s U.S. military action.
Chevron, which is a direct descendant of a small oil company founded in Southern California in the 1870s, has grown into a $300-billion global corporation. It was headquartered in San Ramon, just outside of San Francisco, until executives announced in August 2024 that they were fleeing high-cost California for Houston.
Texas’ relatively low taxes and light regulation have been a beacon for many California companies, and most of Chevron’s competitors are based there.
Chevron began exploring in Venezuela in the early 1920s, according to the company’s website, and ramped up operations after discovering the massive Boscan oil field in the 1940s. Over the decades, it grew into Venezuela’s largest foreign investor.
The company held on over the decades as Venezuela’s government moved steadily to the left; it began to nationalize the oil industry by creating a state-owned petroleum company in 1976, and then demanded majority ownership of foreign oil assets in 2007, under then-President Hugo Chávez.
Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves — meaning they’re economical to tap — about 303 billion barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
But even with those massive reserves, Venezuela has been producing less than 1% of the world’s crude oil supply. Production has steadily declined from the 3.5 million barrels per day pumped in 1999 to just over 1 million barrels per day now.
Currently, Chevron’s operations in Venezuela employ about 3,000 people and produce between 250,000 and 300,000 barrels of oil per day, according to published reports.
That’s less than 10% of the roughly 3 million barrels the company produces from holdings scattered across the globe, from the Gulf of Mexico to Kazakhstan and Australia.
But some analysts are optimistic that Venezuela could double or triple its current output relatively quickly — which could lead to a windfall for Chevron.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Business
‘Stranger Things’ finale turns box office downside up pulling in an estimated $25 million
The finale of Netflix’s blockbuster series “Stranger Things” gave movie theaters a much needed jolt, generating an estimated $20 to $25 million at the box office, according to multiple reports.
Matt and Ross Duffer’s supernatural thriller debuted simultaneously on the streaming platform and some 600 cinemas on New Year’s Eve and held encore showings all through New Year’s Day.
Owing to the cast’s contractual terms for residuals, theaters could not charge for tickets. Instead, fans reserved seats for performances directly from theaters, paying for mandatory food and beverage vouchers. AMC and Cinemark Theatres charged $20 for the concession vouchers while Regal Cinemas charged $11 — in homage to the show’s lead character, Eleven, played by Millie Bobby Brown.
AMC Theatres, the world’s largest theater chain, played the finale at 231 of its theaters across the U.S. — which accounted for one-third of all theaters that held screenings over the holiday.
The chain said that more than 753,000 viewers attended a performance at one of its cinemas over two days, bringing in more than $15 million.
Expectations for the theater showing was high.
“Our year ends on a high: Netflix’s Strangers Things series finale to show in many AMC theatres this week. Two days only New Year’s Eve and Jan 1.,” tweeted AMC’s CEO Adam Aron on Dec. 30. “Theatres are packed. Many sellouts but seats still available. How many Stranger Things tickets do you think AMC will sell?”
It was a rare win for the lagging domestic box office.
In 2025, revenue in the U.S. and Canada was expected to reach $8.87 billion, which was marginally better than 2024 and only 20% more than pre-pandemic levels, according to movie data firm Comscore.
With few exceptions, moviegoers have stayed home. As of Dec. 25., only an estimated 760 million tickets were sold, according to media and entertainment data firm EntTelligence, compared with 2024, during which total ticket sales exceeded 800 million.
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