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Markets Remain Uneasy as Trump Prepares Sweeping ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs

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Markets Remain Uneasy as Trump Prepares Sweeping ‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs

President Trump has settled on a final plan for sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, which are expected to take effect on Wednesday after he announces the details at an afternoon Rose Garden ceremony.

The White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed the timeline in a briefing with reporters on Tuesday, adding that Mr. Trump had been huddling with his trade team to hash out the finer points of an approach meant to end “decades of unfair trade practices.”

When pressed on whether the administration was worried the tariffs could prove to be the wrong approach, Ms. Leavitt struck a confident note: “They’re not going to be wrong,” she said. “It is going to work.”

The administration has been weighing several different tariff strategies in recent weeks. One option examined by the White House is a 20 percent flat tariff on all imports, which advisers have said could help raise more than $6 trillion in revenue for the U.S. government.

But advisers have also discussed the idea of assigning different tariff levels to countries depending on the trade barriers those countries impose against American products. They have also said that some nations might avoid tariffs entirely by striking trade deals with the United States.

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Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office on Monday, Mr. Trump said the United States would be “very nice, relatively speaking,” in imposing tariffs on a vast number of countries — including U.S. allies — that he believes are unfairly inhibiting the flow of American exports.

“That word reciprocal is very important,” Mr. Trump told reporters. “What they do to us, we do to them.”

By Tuesday, Ms. Leavitt said the president had made a decision and was with his trade team now “perfecting it.” When asked if companies could do anything to avoid the tariffs, Ms. Leavitt said the president was “always up to take a phone call” from companies but was “very much focused on fixing the wrongs of the past.”

She also said that many foreign governments had called the president and his team about the tariffs, but that Mr. Trump was focused on the interests of the United States.

“The president has a brilliant team of advisers who have been studying these issues for decades, and we are focused on restoring the golden age of America and making America a manufacturing superpower,” she said.

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The prospect of tariffs has left markets uneasy. Stocks edged down at the start of trading, with the S&P 500 opening about 0.4 percent lower before rebounding after a choppy day yesterday that ended with the index registering its worst month and quarter since 2022.

Investors are still seeking clarity on the scope of Mr. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs, and the economic uncertainty surrounding a global trade war has fueled stock market volatility in recent weeks.

It has similarly troubled the manufacturing industry, which showed signs of contraction in March, according to new data released Tuesday from the Institute for Supply Management, which is closely tracked by the White House. The report found declines in employment and new orders, as firms raised alarms about the nature of Mr. Trump’s tariffs and the prospect for costly global retaliation.

The president is set to receive reports from his advisers on nearly two dozen trade-related topics on Tuesday, advising him on how he might proceed on addressing a range of issues.

The reports, which are due from the Commerce and Treasury departments as well as the United States Trade Representative, will look at the causes of persistent trade deficits, unfair trade practices by other countries, gaps in existing trade agreements and recommendations for achieving reciprocity in trade relationships, among other issues.

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The trade representative, for example, was responsible for identifying countries with which the United States should negotiate new trade agreements, and whether China has upheld its commitments under a 2020 trade deal that Mr. Trump signed in his first term.

In several cases, Mr. Trump has acted before even seeing the details of the reports. Although he asked for reviews into whether foreign metals posed a risk to national security, Mr. Trump has already imposed 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. He also hit Canada, Mexico and China with tariffs intended to stem the flow of fentanyl and migrants into the United States, which is another area that his administration was studying.

How Mr. Trump plans to proceed on Wednesday remains an open question — one that has left America’s trading partners struggling to determine a response.

While the European Union has already announced that it will respond to steel and aluminum tariffs with countermeasures, officials are still contemplating how to respond to the measures that Mr. Trump has yet to unveil.

Although the European response so far has concentrated on imposing higher tariffs on a wide variety of goods — whiskey, motorcycles and women’s clothing are among the products that could be affected — officials are also open to placing trade barriers on services, using a new trade weapon that was developed only in 2021.

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That tool could be used to hit big tech firms, said two diplomats familiar with the matter but who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. That means that instead of affecting physical goods, it could have an impact on companies like Google, Meta, or even American banks.

The goal would be to give the European Union more leverage, since Europe buys more services from the United States than it exports — making its market, and access to European consumers, a potentially powerful tool. But no decisions have been made.

“Europe holds a lot of cards,” Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said during a speech on Tuesday. “From trade to technology to the size of our market.”

Officials are emphasizing that their goal is still to negotiate, though they will respond firmly if needed.

“All instruments are on the table,” Ms. von der Leyen said.

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Danielle Kaye contributed reporting.

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Trump orders federal agencies to stop using Anthropic’s AI after clash with Pentagon

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Trump orders federal agencies to stop using Anthropic’s AI after clash with Pentagon

President Trump on Friday directed federal agencies to stop using technology from San Francisco artificial intelligence company Anthropic, escalating a high-profile clash between the AI startup and the Pentagon over safety.

In a Friday post on the social media site Truth Social, Trump described the company as “radical left” and “woke.”

“We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and will not do business with them again!” Trump said.

The president’s harsh words mark a major escalation in the ongoing battle between some in the Trump administration and several technology companies over the use of artificial intelligence in defense tech.

Anthropic has been sparring with the Pentagon, which had threatened to end its $200-million contract with the company on Friday if it didn’t loosen restrictions on its AI model so it could be used for more military purposes. Anthropic had been asking for more guarantees that its tech wouldn’t be used for surveillance of Americans or autonomous weapons.

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The tussle could hobble Anthropic’s business with the government. The Trump administration said the company was added to a sweeping national security blacklist, ordering federal agencies to immediately discontinue use of its products and barring any government contractors from maintaining ties with it.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who met with Anthropic’s Chief Executive Dario Amodei this week, criticized the tech company after Trump’s Truth Social post.

“Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon,” he wrote Friday on social media site X.

Anthropic didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Anthropic announced a two-year agreement with the Department of Defense in July to “prototype frontier AI capabilities that advance U.S. national security.”

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The company has an AI chatbot called Claude, but it also built a custom AI system for U.S. national security customers.

On Thursday, Amodei signaled the company wouldn’t cave to the Department of Defense’s demands to loosen safety restrictions on its AI models.

The government has emphasized in negotiations that it wants to use Anthropic’s technology only for legal purposes, and the safeguards Anthropic wants are already covered by the law.

Still, Amodei was worried about Washington’s commitment.

“We have never raised objections to particular military operations nor attempted to limit use of our technology in an ad hoc manner,” he said in a blog post. “However, in a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values.”

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Tech workers have backed Anthropic’s stance.

Unions and worker groups representing 700,000 employees at Amazon, Google and Microsoft said this week in a joint statement that they’re urging their employers to reject these demands as well if they have additional contracts with the Pentagon.

“Our employers are already complicit in providing their technologies to power mass atrocities and war crimes; capitulating to the Pentagon’s intimidation will only further implicate our labor in violence and repression,” the statement said.

Anthropic’s standoff with the U.S. government could benefit its competitors, such as Elon Musk’s xAI or OpenAI.

Sam Altman, chief executive of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT and one of Anthropic’s biggest competitors, told CNBC in an interview that he trusts Anthropic.

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“I think they really do care about safety, and I’ve been happy that they’ve been supporting our war fighters,” he said. “I’m not sure where this is going to go.”

Anthropic has distinguished itself from its rivals by touting its concern about AI safety.

The company, valued at roughly $380 billion, is legally required to balance making money with advancing the company’s public benefit of “responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity.”

Developers, businesses, government agencies and other organizations use Anthropic’s tools. Its chatbot can generate code, write text and perform other tasks. Anthropic also offers an AI assistant for consumers and makes money from paid subscriptions as well as contracts. Unlike OpenAI, which is testing ads in ChatGPT, Anthropic has pledged not to show ads in its chatbot Claude.

The company has roughly 2,000 employees and has revenue equivalent to about $14 billion a year.

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Video: The Web of Companies Owned by Elon Musk

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Video: The Web of Companies Owned by Elon Musk

new video loaded: The Web of Companies Owned by Elon Musk

In mapping out Elon Musk’s wealth, our investigation found that Mr. Musk is behind more than 90 companies in Texas. Kirsten Grind, a New York Times Investigations reporter, explains what her team found.

By Kirsten Grind, Melanie Bencosme, James Surdam and Sean Havey

February 27, 2026

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Commentary: How Trump helped foreign markets outperform U.S. stocks during his first year in office

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Commentary: How Trump helped foreign markets outperform U.S. stocks during his first year in office

Trump has crowed about the gains in the U.S. stock market during his term, but in 2025 investors saw more opportunity in the rest of the world.

If you’re a stock market investor you might be feeling pretty good about how your portfolio of U.S. equities fared in the first year of President Trump’s term.

All the major market indices seemed to be firing on all cylinders, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gaining 17.9% through the full year.

But if you’re the type of investor who looks for things to regret, pay no attention to the rest of the world’s stock markets. That’s because overseas markets did better than the U.S. market in 2025 — a lot better. The MSCI World ex-USA index — that is, all the stock markets except the U.S. — gained more than 32% last year, nearly double the percentage gains of U.S. markets.

That’s a major departure from recent trends. Since 2013, the MSCI US index had bested the non-U.S. index every year except 2017 and 2022, sometimes by a wide margin — in 2024, for instance, the U.S. index gained 24.6%, while non-U.S. markets gained only 4.7%.

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The Trump trade is dead. Long live the anti-Trump trade.

— Katie Martin, Financial Times

Broken down into individual country markets (also by MSCI indices), in 2025 the U.S. ranked 21st out of 23 developed markets, with only New Zealand and Denmark doing worse. Leading the pack were Austria and Spain, with 86% gains, but superior records were turned in by Finland, Ireland and Hong Kong, with gains of 50% or more; and the Netherlands, Norway, Britain and Japan, with gains of 40% or more.

Investment analysts cite several factors to explain this trend. Judging by traditional metrics such as price/earnings multiples, the U.S. markets have been much more expensive than those in the rest of the world. Indeed, they’re historically expensive. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index traded in 2025 at about 23 times expected corporate earnings; the historical average is 18 times earnings.

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Investment managers also have become nervous about the concentration of market gains within the U.S. technology sector, especially in companies associated with artificial intelligence R&D. Fears that AI is an investment bubble that could take down the S&P’s highest fliers have investors looking elsewhere for returns.

But one factor recurs in almost all the market analyses tracking relative performance by U.S. and non-U.S. markets: Donald Trump.

Investors started 2025 with optimism about Trump’s influence on trading opportunities, given his apparent commitment to deregulation and his braggadocio about America’s dominant position in the world and his determination to preserve, even increase it.

That hasn’t been the case for months.

”The Trump trade is dead. Long live the anti-Trump trade,” Katie Martin of the Financial Times wrote this week. “Wherever you look in financial markets, you see signs that global investors are going out of their way to avoid Donald Trump’s America.”

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Two Trump policy initiatives are commonly cited by wary investment experts. One, of course, is Trump’s on-and-off tariffs, which have left investors with little ability to assess international trade flows. The Supreme Court’s invalidation of most Trump tariffs and the bellicosity of his response, which included the immediate imposition of new 10% tariffs across the board and the threat to increase them to 15%, have done nothing to settle investors’ nerves.

Then there’s Trump’s driving down the value of the dollar through his agitation for lower interest rates, among other policies. For overseas investors, a weaker dollar makes U.S. assets more expensive relative to the outside world.

It would be one thing if trade flows and the dollar’s value reflected economic conditions that investors could themselves parse in creating a picture of investment opportunities. That’s not the case just now. “The current uncertainty is entirely man-made (largely by one orange-hued man in particular) but could well continue at least until the US mid-term elections in November,” Sam Burns of Mill Street Research wrote on Dec. 29.

Trump hasn’t been shy about trumpeting U.S. stock market gains as emblems of his policy wisdom. “The stock market has set 53 all-time record highs since the election,” he said in his State of the Union address Tuesday. “Think of that, one year, boosting pensions, 401(k)s and retirement accounts for the millions and the millions of Americans.”

Trump asserted: “Since I took office, the typical 401(k) balance is up by at least $30,000. That’s a lot of money. … Because the stock market has done so well, setting all those records, your 401(k)s are way up.”

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Trump’s figure doesn’t conform to findings by retirement professionals such as the 401(k) overseers at Bank of America. They reported that the average account balance grew by only about $13,000 in 2025. I asked the White House for the source of Trump’s claim, but haven’t heard back.

Interpreting stock market returns as snapshots of the economy is a mug’s game. Despite that, at her recent appearance before a House committee, Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi tried to deflect questions about her handling of the Jeffrey Epstein records by crowing about it.

“The Dow is over 50,000 right now, she declared. “Americans’ 401(k)s and retirement savings are booming. That’s what we should be talking about.”

I predicted that the administration would use the Dow industrial average’s break above 50,000 to assert that “the overall economy is firing on all cylinders, thanks to his policies.” The Dow reached that mark on Feb. 6. But Feb. 11, the day of Bondi’s testimony, was the last day the index closed above 50,000. On Thursday, it closed at 49,499.50, or about 1.4% below its Feb. 10 peak close of 50,188.14.

To use a metric suggested by economist Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan, if you invested $48,488 in the Dow on the day Trump took office last year, when the Dow closed at 48,448 points, you would have had $50,000 on Feb. 6. That’s a gain of about 3.2%. But if you had invested the same amount in the global stock market not including the U.S. (based on the MSCI World ex-USA index), on that same day you would have had nearly $60,000. That’s a gain of nearly 24%.

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Broader market indices tell essentially the same story. From Jan. 17, 2025, the last day before Trump’s inauguration, through Thursday’s close, the MSCI US stock index gained a cumulative 16.3%. But the world index minus the U.S. gained nearly 42%.

The gulf between U.S. and non-U.S. performance has continued into the current year. The S&P 500 has gained about 0.74% this year through Wednesday, while the MSCI World ex-USA index has gained about 8.9%. That’s “the best start for a calendar year for global stocks relative to the S&P 500 going back to at least 1996,” Morningstar reports.

It wouldn’t be unusual for the discrepancy between the U.S. and global markets to shrink or even reverse itself over the course of this year.

That’s what happened in 2017, when overseas markets as tracked by MSCI beat the U.S. by more than three percentage points, and 2022, when global markets lost money but U.S. markets underperformed the rest of the world by more than five percentage points.

Economic conditions change, and often the stock markets march to their own drummers. The one thing less likely to change is that Trump is set to remain president until Jan. 20, 2029. Make your investment bets accordingly.

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