Business
How India Profits From Its Neutrality in the Ukraine War
India’s purchases have put it strategically between Russia and the Western coalition backing Ukraine, as the world’s economic relationships continue to be rewired in the wake of the war.
The United States, Europe and other countries have imposed sweeping sanctions on Moscow. In an effort to hurt Russia but keep global supplies steady, the West also imposed a cap on the price Russia could charge for its oil.
This cheaper oil has found new markets — including India, which now purchases nearly two million barrels a day, roughly 45 percent of its imports, according to the International Energy Agency.
In addition to stoking India’s economy, cheap Russian oil has given India a lucrative business refining that crude and exporting the products to other regions that suddenly need fresh energy supplies. That includes the European Union, which has banned direct oil purchases from Russia.
India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, has taken a neutral stance on the conflict in Ukraine. The country’s balancing act will be in focus this week, as Mr. Modi makes his first state visit to the United States.
The nations’ leaders will meet on Thursday to discuss new partnerships in defense, clean energy and space, in an effort to solidify what the Biden administration has called “one of our most consequential relations.” The conversations are likely to touch on reducing India’s ties to Russia, which include partnerships in defense and energy.
In a little over a year, India has gone from purchasing hardly any Russian oil to buying about half of what the country exports by sea.
Russia is the world’s third largest oil producer. Some of that oil is exported through pipelines, the destination of which cannot be changed without hefty investments. But the tankers that ferry oil across oceans can be more easily rerouted, often to China and India, which together purchased almost 80 percent of seaborne Russian crude oil exports in May.
China and India are buying so much Russian oil now that Moscow is selling more crude than it was before it invaded Ukraine. At the same time, lower prices have meant that the Russian government is earning less revenue on its oil trade.
The reasons for falling oil prices are complex, and experts debate how much they are because of the West’s price cap, or merely the result of a slowing global demand. Either way, India has found a way to take advantage of the situation.
The bulk of the crude that goes to India from Russia arrives at ports near Jamnagar in Gujarat State and is piped to nearby refineries.
The Jamnagar Refinery, which is owned by Reliance Industries, is the largest in the world, with the capacity to process more than 1.2 million barrels per day. Reliance is controlled by Mukesh Ambani,
India’s most powerful businessman and a strategic partner to Mr. Modi’s government.
India’s second-largest refinery is less than 10 miles away: the Vadinar complex owned by Nayara Energy. Nayara is half-owned by Rosneft, Russia’s state oil company; a Russian investment group has a stake in the other half.
So as the trade in this region grows, Russian companies — and, by extension, Moscow — are reaping some of the benefits.
Some of what’s processed at these sites is used domestically. But a growing amount is funneled to the global market, starting with Southeast Asia, Africa and — increasingly — Europe and the United States. India sells all of these products at market prices, earning revenue for its companies and bulking up the country’s reserves of foreign currency with dollars and euros.
The Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a research group based in Finland, published a report in April that highlighted the role of certain “laundromat” countries, which buy Russian oil, refine it into other products and sell it on to buyers in Europe, the United States and other jurisdictions that have halted direct purchases from Russia.
Chief among these countries named in the report was India, as well as China, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Singapore.
The port of Sikka, which serves the Jamnagar Refinery, was both the largest global import point for seaborne Russia crude oil and the single biggest point of oil exports to the countries that had imposed the cap, the report said. From December to February, the refinery exported almost $3 billion worth of refined products to countries observing the price cap.
India has rejected the notion that it is trying to profit from wartime sanctions.
In the lead up to India’s first time hosting the Group of 20 nations summit in September, the country’s diplomats have been working furiously to balance the concerns of the European Union, the United States, China, Russia and other members.
But the Modi government’s first priority appears to be making India, which recently surpassed China as the world’s most populous country, more self-reliant. In practice, that means pursuing its own interests without regard for its partners’ complaints.
In December, S. Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, was asked in Parliament about India’s decision to buy Russian crude. “It is a sensible policy to go where we get the best deal in the interest of the Indian people,” he said. “If it is your contention that our position has been in putting the interests of the Indian public first, I plead guilty.”
Methodology
Ship paths
Tanker ship position data was provided by SynMax, a satellite data analytics company, using two commodity tracking platforms, Theia and Leviaton AI. Using this data, The Times was able to map the paths that ships leaving Russia took between January and May in both 2021 and 2023.
By comparing the path data with known port locations published in the World Port Index, The Times calculated when a ship stopped at a specific port. The data was filtered further to show only ships that left Russian waters and headed directly to an Indian port.
Crude prices
The Times analyzed oil shipment data from Kpler, a firm that tracks global trade, to find how much Russian crude was flowing into India. Using the date of departure of each shipment, The Times cross-referenced the type of crude oil flowing into India with corresponding price data from Argus Media, a commodity research firm.
Based on prices set at departure ports, Indian crude buyers may have saved $5.8 billion to $14.7 billion. Departure price data does not include the shipping and insurance cost that buyers have to pay to get crude to its final destination, therefore total savings may not have been as much.
Russian Urals Crude, for example, was priced at an average of $65 a barrel in May as delivered to West Indian ports, compared with $50 when priced in departure ports in Russia.
Additional sources
Victoria Grabenwöger, crude oil analyst at Kpler; Dror Guzman, Principal Software Engineer at Synmax; and Seana Lanigan, Head of Media Relations at Argus Media
Business
On TikTok, Users Thumb Their Noses at Looming Ban
Over the last week, the videos started appearing on TikTok from users across the United States.
They all made fun of the same thing: how the app’s ties to China made it a national security threat. Many implied that their TikTok accounts had each been assigned an agent of the Chinese government to spy on them through the app — and that the users would miss their personal spies.
“May we meet again in another life,” one user wrote in a video goodbye set to Whitney Houston’s cover of Dolly Parton’s “I Will Always Love You.” The video included an A.I.-generated image of a Chinese military officer.
The videos were just one way that some of TikTok’s 170 million monthly U.S. users were reacting as they prepared for the app to disappear from the country as soon as Sunday.
The Supreme Court is set to rule on a federal law that required TikTok’s Chinese owner, ByteDance, to sell the app by Jan. 19 or face a ban in the United States. U.S. officials have said China could use TikTok to harvest Americans’ private data and spread covert disinformation. TikTok, which has said a sale is impossible and challenged the law, is now awaiting the Supreme Court’s response.
The possibility that the justices will uphold the law has set off a palpable sense of grief and dark humor across the app. Some users have posted videos suggesting ways to circumvent a ban with technological workarounds. Others have downloaded another Chinese app, Xiaohongshu, also known as “Red Note,” to thumb their noses at the U.S. government’s concerns about TikTok’s ties to China.
The videos highlight the collision taking place online between the law, which Congress passed with wide support last year, and everyday users of TikTok, who are dismayed that the app may soon disappear.
“Much of my TikTok feed now is TikTokers ridiculing the U.S. government, TikTokers thanking their Chinese spy as a form of ridicule,” said Anupam Chander, a professor of law and technology at Georgetown University and an expert on the global regulation of new technologies. “TikTokers recognize that they are not likely to be manipulated by anyone. They are actually quite sophisticated about the information they’re receiving.”
TikTok declined to comment on the users’ references to its ties to China.
Some users are not willing to give up the app — or their supposed spies — so easily.
Hundreds of TikTok videos over the last week have cataloged how teenagers could keep using the app in the United States, according to a review by The New York Times. One of the most popular methods described is the use of a VPN, or a virtual private network, which can mask a user’s location and make it appear that the person is elsewhere.
“They can’t actually ban TikTok in the U.S. because VPNs are not banned,” Sasha Casey, a TikTok user, said in a recent video that was liked over 60,000 times. “Use a VPN. And send a picture to Congress while you do it, because that’s what I’ll be doing.”
While VPNs can make it appear that a phone, a laptop or another electronic device is in a remote location, it is not clear if the technology can circumvent the ban. A device’s real location is stored in many places, including in the app store that was used to download TikTok.
TikTok fans also seem to be behind the sudden surge in popularity for Xiaohongshu, the most downloaded free app on Tuesday and Wednesday in the U.S. Apple Store. Hundreds of millions of people in China use the app, which, like TikTok, features short videos and text-based posts. Xiaohongshu means “little red book” in Mandarin.
Mr. Chander anticipates that the Supreme Court will uphold the ban law this week, though he believes that TikTok has the winning case. He said the downloads of Red Note and the Chinese spy memes showed that many Americans did not agree with their government’s security concerns, particularly at the expense of free speech.
“When the United States shutters a massive free expression service, which our democratic allies have not shuttered, it will make us the censor and put us in the unusual position of silencing expression,” Mr. Chander said. “It will make Americans who use TikTok really distrustful of the U.S. government as carrying their best interests.”
Business
Edison stock turns volatile as growing blame for wildfires lands on the power company
Southern California’s catastrophic fires have rocked the stock of Edison International, the parent company of Southern California Edison, as accusations and lawsuits about the utility’s potential role in starting the fires mount.
Shares of Edison International closed up 5% at $61.30 on Wednesday after plunging 23% this month, making it one of the worst performers on the Standard & Poor’s 500. The rebound came after Ladenburg Thalmann analysts upgraded their rating of the stock to neutral from sell, saying that their target price of $56.50 a share reflected worst-case outcomes associated with the current wildfires.
“At this time, it is too early to discern what the outcomes will be with respect to the impact of the fires on the California Wildfire Insurance Fund solvency and/or the future earnings of Edison International,” the analysts wrote, according to Barron’s. “An initial assessment of SCE’s role in the start of the fires will likely not occur until the summer of 2025 at the earliest.”
State lawmakers established the wildfire fund in the wake of wildfires several years ago after Wall Street investors lost confidence and ratings agencies threatened to downgrade California’s investor-owned utilities.
Market analyst Zacks downgraded Edison International stock from outperform to neutral after the fires started last week. Zacks predicted Edison’s operating revenue would increase during 2025 and 2026, while acknowledging that “the company has been incurring significant wildfire-related costs” and that “higher-than-expected decommissioning costs could materially impact the company’s operating results.”
RBC Capital Markets, another analyst, had a loftier view of Edison as recently as October when it called the utility “a high quality operator, with investor confidence around wildfire risk improving from best in class mitigation efforts.”
The fallout from the fires is an abrupt disruption for a company that had been surging in recent months. In its most recent quarterly report, the company posted a profit of $516 million, or $1.33 per share, compared with $155 million, or 40 cent per share, in the third quarter of last year.
“Our team has achieved remarkable success over the last several years managing unprecedented climate challenges, making our operations more resilient and positioning us strongly for the growth ahead,” President Pedro J. Pizarro said in the report.
Fire agencies are investigating whether downed Southern California Edison utility equipment played a role in igniting the 800-acre Hurst fire near Sylmar, company officials have acknowledged.
The company issued a report Friday saying that a downed conductor was discovered at a tower in the vicinity of the Hurst fire, but that it “does not know whether the damage observed occurred before or after the start of the fire.” The fire is nearly fully contained, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
SCE is also under scrutiny for possibly being involved in sparking the Eaton fire that has burned 14,000 acres and destroyed thousands of structures, wiping out whole swaths of Altadena, where at least 16 people died in the blaze.
On Tuesday the Newport Beach law firm of Bridgford, Gleason & Artinian filed a mass action complaint in Los Angeles Superior Court against SCE regarding the Eaton fire on behalf of victims including Jeremy Gursey, whose Altadena property was destroyed in the fire.
“Based upon our investigation, our discussions with various consultants, the public statements of SCE, and the video evidence of the fire’s origin, we believe that the Eaton Fire was ignited because of SCE’s failure to de-energize its overhead wires which traverse Eaton Canyon—despite a red flag PDS wind warning issued by the national weather service the day before the ignition of the fire,” lawyer Richard Bridgford said in a statement.
The firm said it has represented more than 10,000 California fire victims in past suits against Pacific Gas & Electric Co. and SCE. Bridgford told Yahoo Finance that his inbox is full of Southern California residents seeking to participate in the Eaton fire lawsuit and that he anticipates “there’ll be hundreds joining.”
The most extreme level of a red flag fire warning, a “particularly dangerous situation,” returned to parts of Los Angeles and Ventura counties Wednesday morning, heightening concerns about the potential for new fires.
“The danger has not yet passed,” Los Angeles Fire Department Chief Kristin Crowley said during a news conference Wednesday. “So please prioritize your safety.”
Business
Albania Gives Jared Kushner Hotel Project a Nod as Trump Returns
The government of Albania has given preliminary approval to a plan proposed by Jared Kushner, Donald J. Trump’s son-in-law, to build a $1.4 billion luxury hotel complex on a small abandoned military base off the coast of Albania.
The project is one of several involving Mr. Trump and his extended family that directly involve foreign government entities that will be moving ahead even while Mr. Trump will be in charge of foreign policy related to these same nations.
The approval by Albania’s Strategic Investment Committee — which is led by Prime Minister Edi Rama — gives Mr. Kushner and his business partners the right to move ahead with accelerated negotiations to build the luxury resort on a 111-acre section of the 2.2-square-mile island of Sazan that will be connected by ferry to the mainland.
Mr. Kushner and the Albanian government did not respond Wednesday to requests for comment. But when previously asked about this project, both have said that the evaluation is not being influenced by Mr. Kushner’s ties to Mr. Trump or any effort to try to seek favors from the U.S. government.
“The fact that such a renowned American entrepreneur shows his interest on investing in Albania makes us very proud and happy,” a spokesman for Mr. Rama said last year in a statement to The New York Times when asked about the projects.
Mr. Kushner’s Affinity Partners, a private equity company backed with about $4.6 billion in money mostly from Saudi Arabia and other Middle East sovereign wealth funds, is pursuing the Albania project along with Asher Abehsera, a real-estate executive that Mr. Kushner has previously teamed up with to build projects in Brooklyn, N.Y.
The Albanian government, according to an official document recently posted online, will now work with their American partners to clear the proposed hotel site of any potential buried munitions and to examine any other environmental or legal concerns that need to be resolved before the project can move ahead.
The document, dated Dec. 30, notes that the government “has the right to revoke the decision,” depending on the final project negotiations.
Mr. Kushner’s firm has said the plan is to build a five-star “eco-resort community” on the island by turning a “former military base into a vibrant international destination for hospitality and wellness.”
Ivanka Trump, Mr. Trump’s daughter, has said she is helping with the project as well. “We will execute on it,” she said about the project, during a podcast last year.
This project is just one of two major real-estate deals that Mr. Kushner is pursuing along with Mr. Abehsera that involve foreign governments.
Separately, the partnership received preliminary approval last year to build a luxury hotel complex in Belgrade, Serbia, in the former ministry of defense building, which has sat empty for decades after it was bombed by NATO in 1999 during a war there.
Serbia and Albania have foreign policy matters pending with the United States, as both countries seek continued U.S. support for their long-stalled efforts to join the European Union, and officials in Washington are trying to convince Serbia to tighten ties with the United States, instead of Russia.
Virginia Canter, who served as White House ethics lawyer during the Obama and Clinton administrations and also an ethics adviser to the International Monetary Fund, said even if there was no attempt to gain influence with Mr. Trump, any government deal involving his family creates that impression.
“It all looks like favoritism, like they are providing access to Kushner because they want to be on the good side of Trump,” Ms. Canter said, now with State Democracy Defenders Fund, a group that tracks federal government corruption and ethics issues.
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