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Fed leader, concerned about jobs downturn, tees up interest rate cuts

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Fed leader, concerned about jobs downturn, tees up interest rate cuts

After a near-textbook campaign to rein in inflation by raising interest rates, the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome H. Powell, all but promised Friday to start lowering rates next month — with fingers crossed that it’s not too late to avoid a recession.

From the beginning of the inflationary surge triggered more than three years ago by the economic disruptions of the pandemic, it was clear that raising interest rates could tame price hikes. It was also clear that, if rates stayed too high too long, they could choke the economy into recession.

And few states are showing stronger signs of a possible downturn than California, which has felt the impact of high interest rates more severely than others. Not only has its unemployment rate been among the highest in the land while its job creation rate lagged, but pillar industries such as entertainment and tech have also gone through major disruption and many residents and businesses have left the state.

“Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace,” Powell said in a widely anticipated speech at the annual summer symposium of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyo. “But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” he said, giving the strongest signal yet of an imminent rate cut.

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Investors cheered the news. Major stock indexes rose almost immediately after he began speaking.

Powell did not tip his hand on the size of the coming rate cut, but most analysts widely expect a small quarter-point move next month and a succession of similar reductions over the next year.

But Powell’s emphasis on doing “everything we can to support a strong labor market” gave some economists reason to think that the Fed could make a half-point move next month. Powell said that the pace of policy actions would “depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Whatever the initial size may be, it should fairly quickly nudge down interest rates on credit cards, auto loans and other consumer financing, but the broader economic effects of Fed policy are likely to take hold only gradually.

And with the political climate at a boil and the U.S. unemployment rising significantly since the start of the year, the Fed may find itself behind the curve in reversing course after what has been, up to now, a successful run of lowering inflation while preventing the economy from falling into a recession — the so-called soft landing.

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“They’ve got to get going,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, who for months has been calling on the Fed to start lowering rates.

Barring major economic changes or extreme volatility in markets, most economists see two to three quarter-point cuts this year and several more over the course of 2025, eventually bringing the Fed’s benchmark rate from the current two-decade high of 5.3% down to around 3%.

Financial markets have already priced in a September quarter-point cut, with stocks having mostly recovered from a big jolt a couple of weeks ago when investors feared the economy was turning down quickly and that it was already too late for the Fed.

Interest rates for a conventional 30-year mortgage were down to a hair below 6.5% this week, from more than 7% as recently as May. Lower rates should also help with auto purchases. Zandi said car sales have slowed as consumers have been waiting for better rates. The average interest rate on a five-year new auto loan was 8.2% in the second quarter, the highest since the Fed’s record keeping began in 2006.

The overriding question with the economy is jobs, both for workers and for political leaders facing a national election in November. And jobs are one of the two basic elements of the Fed’s responsibility. The other is price stability.

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Powell acknowledged on Friday that the Fed initially misjudged the inflation spike in spring 2021, thinking that the pandemic-related surge in prices would be “transitory” and one that the Fed could look past.

Most analysts criticized Fed officials for waiting too long to raise rates, but Powell noted that they were hardly alone. “The good ship Transitory was a crowded one,” he said, adding in impromptu remarks, “I think I see some former shipmates out there today,” prompting a moment of laughter from the audience during his 15-minute speech.

It wasn’t until March 2022 when the Fed began raising rates. And, until recently, Powell and his colleagues focused squarely on consumer price inflation, which peaked in June 2022 at 9.1% and has since dropped to just under 3%. With inflation now trending toward the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank’s attention has turned to employment, which has become more worrisome in recent weeks.

First-time unemployment claims have moved up while the number of job openings has shrunk. The nation’s unemployment rate, 4.3% in July, is up from 3.7% in January, and new reports this week indicate that job growth from March 2023 to March 2024 was considerably smaller than previously estimated, though still healthy.

“The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable,” Powell said, adding, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”

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California’s unemployment rate has held steady in the last three months at 5.2%, but that’s still the second-highest in the country after Nevada. (California earlier in the year had the highest jobless figure.) More recently the pace of job growth in California has picked up, but the July report from the state’s Employment Development Department shows workers in California on average are putting in fewer hours of work.

That may not be a bad thing if more workers are opting for a better work-life balance, something that has become more important since the pandemic, said Erica Groshen, an economist and former commissioner of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. And, longer term, it could mean companies are more productive if they’re producing as much or more with less labor input.

But the decline in work hours, she said, could signal weakening demand and pending layoffs if business conditions persist or worsen.

The latest data from the state EDD show average weekly hours of work for all private-sector employees was down to 33.4 hours in July, from 34.5 a year ago. That may not seem like much, but it means a significant corresponding drop in average weekly earnings, which turned negative in July compared with a year earlier. Workers in information, education and health services, professional and business services, and the leisure sector, posted fewer hours of work.

“The softening job market tends to go with reduced hours,” said Sung Won Sohn, professor of economics and finance at Loyola Marymount University. “Typically, firms start cutting back hours before shedding jobs.”

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That is likely even more true now because over the past several years many employers have had trouble finding new workers when they needed them.

Tom Trujillo, president of a family-owned business that operates eight Wienerschnitzel restaurants in the Southland, has held on to his staff of about 140. But like many other fast-food franchisees, Trujillo said he has cut back on overtime and some part-time employees’ hours as a result of the $20 minimum wage that took effect in April for his industry.

In response , he said he’s raised prices and that some of his stores are opening a little later and some dining rooms closing an hour or two earlier.

“I have a reserve credit line, with a zero balance,” Trujillo said. “The lower interest rates would be nice if I have to draw on that.”

But what he said he needs most today are more customers and for them to come more often.

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Whether lower interest rates could help drive greater sales at Trujillo’s and other businesses remains to be seen.

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iPic movie theater chain files for bankruptcy

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iPic movie theater chain files for bankruptcy

The iPic dine-in movie theater chain has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and intends to pursue a sale of its assets, citing the difficult post-pandemic theatrical market.

The Boca Raton, Fla.-based company has 13 locations across the U.S., including in Pasadena and Westwood, according to a Feb. 25 filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of Florida, West Palm Beach division.

As part of the bankruptcy process, the Pasadena and Westwood theaters will be permanently closed, according to WARN Act notices filed with the state of California’s Employment Development Department.

The company came to its conclusion after “exploring a range of possible alternatives,” iPic Chief Executive Patrick Quinn said in a statement.

“We are committed to continuing our business operations with minimal impact throughout the process and will endeavor to serve our customers with the high standard of care they have come to expect from us,” he said.

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The company will keep its current management to maintain day-to-day operations while it goes through the bankruptcy process, iPic said in the statement. The last day of employment for workers in its Pasadena and Westwood locations is April 28, according to a state WARN Act notice. The chain has 1,300 full- and part-time employees, with 193 workers in California.

The theatrical business, including the exhibition industry, still has not recovered from the pandemic’s effect on consumer behavior. Last year, overall box office revenue in the U.S. and Canada totaled about $8.8 billion, up just 1.6% compared with 2024. Even more troubling is that industry revenue in 2025 was down 22.1% compared with pre-pandemic 2019’s totals.

IPic noted those trends in its bankruptcy filing, describing the changes in consumer behavior as “lasting” and blaming the rise of streaming for “fundamentally” altering the movie theater business.

“These industry shifts have directly reduced box office revenues and related ancillary revenues, including food and beverage sales,” the company stated in its bankruptcy filing.

IPic also attributed its decision to rising rents and labor costs.

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The company estimated it owed about $141,000 in taxes and about $2.7 million in total unsecured claims. The company’s assets were valued at about $155.3 million, the majority of which coming from theater equipment and furniture. Its liabilities totaled $113.9 million.

The chain had previously filed for bankruptcy protection in 2019.

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Startup Varda Space Industries snags former Mattel plant in El Segundo

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Startup Varda Space Industries snags former Mattel plant in El Segundo

In an expansion of its business of processing pharmaceuticals in Earth’s orbit, Varda Space Industries is renting a large El Segundo plant where toy manufacturer Mattel used to design Hot Wheels and Barbie dolls.

The plant in El Segundo’s aerospace corridor will be an extension of Varda Space Industries’ headquarters in a much smaller building on nearby Aviation Boulevard.

Varda will occupy a 205,443-square-foot industrial and office campus at 2031 E. Mariposa Ave., which will give it additional capacity to manufacture spacecraft at scale, the company said.

Originally built in the 1940s as an aircraft facility, the complex has a history as part of aerospace and defense industries that have long shaped the South Bay and is near a host of major defense and space contractors. It is also close to Los Angeles Air Force Base, headquarters to the Space Systems Command.

Workers test AstroForge’s Odin asteroid probe, which was lost in space after launch this year.

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(Varda Space Industries)

Varda is one of a new generation of aerospace startups that have flourished in Southern California and the South Bay over the last several years, particularly in El Segundo, often with ties to SpaceX.

Elon Musk’s company, founded in 2002 in El Segundo, has revolutionized the industry with reusable rockets that have radically lowered the cost of lifting payloads into space. Though it has moved its headquarters to Texas, SpaceX retains large-scale operations in Hawthorne.

Varda co-founder and Chief Executive Will Bruey is a former SpaceX avionics engineer, and the company’s spacecraft are launched on SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rockets from Vandenberg Space Force Base in Santa Barbara County.

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Varda makes automated labs that look like cylindrical desktop speakers, which it sends into orbit in capsules and satellite platforms it also builds. There, in microgravity, the miniature labs grow molecular crystals that are purer than those produced in Earth’s gravity for use in pharmaceuticals.

It has contracts with drug companies and also the military, which tests technology at hypersonic speeds as the capsules return to Earth.

Its fifth capsule was launched in November and returned to Earth in late January; its next mission is set in the coming weeks. Varda has more than 10 missions scheduled on Falcon 9s through 2028.

For the last several decades, the Mariposa Avenue property served as the research and development center for Mattel Toys. El Segundo has also long been a center for the toy industry as companies like to set up shop in the shadow of Mattel.

The Mattel facility “has always been an exceptional property with a legacy tied to aerospace innovation, and leasing to Varda Space Industries feels like a natural continuation of that story,” said Michael Woods, a partner at GPI Cos., which owns the property.

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“We are proud to support a company that is genuinely pushing the boundaries of what’s possible, and are excited to watch Varda grow and thrive here in El Segundo,” Woods said.

As one of the country’s most active hubs of aerospace and defense innovation, El Segundo has seen its industrial property vacancy fall to 3.4% on demand from space companies, government contractors and technology startups, real estate brokerage CBRE said.

Successful startups often have to leave the neighborhood when they want to expand, real estate broker Bob Haley of CBRE said. The 9-acre Mattel facility was big enough to keep Varda in the city.

Last year, Varda subleased about 55,000 square feet of lab space from alternative protein company Beyond Meat at 888 Douglas St. in El Segundo, which it started moving into in June.

Varda will get the keys to its new building in December and spend four to eight months building production and assembly facilities as it ramps up operations. By the end of next year, it expects to have constructed 10 more spacecraft.

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In the future, Varda could consolidate offices there, given its size. Currently, though, the plan is to retain all properties, creating a campus of three buildings within a mile of one another that are served by the company’s transportation services, Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Barr said.

“We already have Varda-branded shuttles running up and down Aviation Boulevard,” he said.

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How Iran War Is Threatening Global Oil and Gas Supplies

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How Iran War Is Threatening Global Oil and Gas Supplies

Ships near the Strait of Hormuz before and after attacks began

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Note: Times shown are in Iran Standard Time. Some ships in the region transmit false positions and others sometimes stop broadcasting their locations, and may not be reflected in the animation. Ships with sparse location data are shown in a lighter shade. Source: Kpler and Spire.

Every day, around 80 oil and gas tankers typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast that carries a fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas.

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On Monday, just two oil and gas tankers appear to have crossed the strait, according to a New York Times analysis of shipping activity from Kpler, an industry data firm. Since then, one tanker passed through.

“It’s a de facto closure,” said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston financial services firm. “You’ve got a significant number of vessels on either side of the strait but no one is willing to go through.”

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Tankers have been staying away from Hormuz since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that began on Saturday. A prolonged conflict could ripple broadly across the global economy, threatening the energy supplies of countries halfway around the world and stoking inflation.

International oil prices have climbed 12 percent since the fighting began, trading Tuesday around $81 a barrel, and natural gas prices have surged in Europe and in Asia.

A senior Iranian military official threatened on Monday to “set on fire” any ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels in the region have already come under attack. Several oil and gas facilities have also been struck or affected by nearby shelling, though the damage did not initially appear to be catastrophic.

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Where ships and energy facilities have been damaged

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Note: Damage as of 2 p.m. Eastern time Tuesday. Source: Kpler, Kuwait National Petroleum Company, Saudi Arabian Ministry of Energy, Planet Labs, QatarEnergy, United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations and Vanguard Tech.

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A fire broke out Tuesday at a major energy hub in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, from the falling debris of a downed drone, the authorities said. On Monday, Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas, or fuel that has been cooled so that it can be transported on ships, after attacks on its facilities.

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Facilities at Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia were on fire on Monday after two Iranian drones were intercepted, according to Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy, causing fragments to fall. Vantor

The sharp reduction in tanker traffic is reducing the supply of oil and gas to world markets, pushing up prices for both commodities. And the longer that ships stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, the less oil and gas get out to the world, which could raise prices even more.

Shipping companies have paused their tankers to protect their crew and cargo, and because insurance companies are charging significantly more to cover vessels in the conflict area.

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On Tuesday, President Trump said that “if necessary,” the U.S. Navy would begin escorting tankers through the strait. He also said a U.S. government agency would begin offering “political risk insurance” to shipping lines in the area.

In addition to tankers, other large vessels regularly go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. In normal conditions, nearly 160 make the trip each day.

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Some ships in the region turn off the devices that broadcast their positions, while others transmit false locations — making it hard to give a full picture of the traffic in the strait.

The Shiva is a small oil tanker that has repeatedly faked its location, according to TankerTrackers.com, which tracks global oil shipments. It is suspected of carrying sanctioned Iranian oil, according to Kpler. The Shiva was one of the two tankers that crossed the strait on Monday.

The oil and gas that typically move through the strait come from big producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and United Arab Emirates, and are exported around the world.

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Where tankers moving through the Strait have traveled

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Note: Tanker paths are since Jan. 1 and include all tankers and gas carriers. Source: Kpler and Spire.

In 2024, more than 80 percent of the oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asia. China, India, Japan and South Korea were the top importers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

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Countries have energy stockpiles that could last them into the coming months, but a continued shutdown of the strait could damage their economies.

Several big disruptions have roiled supply chains in recent years, but the tanker standstill in the Strait of Hormuz could have an outsize impact.

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