Business
Election deepfakes and high-profile bankruptcies: Here's what AI will bring in 2024
If 2023 was the year that AI finally broke into the mainstream, 2024 could be the year it gets fully enmeshed in our lives — or the year the bubble bursts.
But whatever happens, the stage is set for another whirlwind 12 months, coming in the wake of Hollywood’s labor backlash against automation; the rise of consumer chatbots, including OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Elon Musk’s Grok; a half-baked coup against Sam Altman; early inklings of a regulatory crackdown; and, of course, that viral deepfake of Pope Francis in a puffer jacket.
To gauge what we should expect in the new year, The Times asked a slate of experts and stakeholders to send in their 2024 artificial intelligence predictions. The results alternated between enthusiasm, curiosity and skepticism — an appropriate mix of sentiments for a technology that remains both polarizing and unpredictable.
Regulators will step in, and not everyone will be happy about it.
When a surgeon or a stockbroker goes to work, they do so with the backing of a license or certification. Could 2024 be the year we start holding AI to the same standard?
“In the next year, we may require AI systems to get a professional license,” said Amy Webb, chief executive of the Future Today Institute, a consulting firm. “While certain fields require professional licenses for humans, so far algorithms get to operate without passing a standardized test. You wouldn’t want to see a urologist for surgery who didn’t have a medical license in good standing, right?”
It’d be a development in line with political changes over the last few months, which saw several efforts to more conscientiously regulate this powerful new technology, including a sweeping executive order from President Biden and a draft Senate policy aimed at reining in deepfakes.
“I’m particularly concerned about the potential impact [generative AI] could have on our democracy and institutions in the run-up to November’s elections,” Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), who co-sponsored the deepfakes draft, said of the coming year. “Creators, experts and the public are calling for federal safeguards to outline clear policies around the use of generative AI, and it’s imperative that Congress do so.”
Regulation isn’t just a domestic concern, either. Justin Hughes, a professor of intellectual property and trade law at Loyola Law School, said he expects the European Union will finalize its AI Act next year, triggering a 24-month countdown for broad AI regulations in the EU. Those would include transparency and governance requirements, Hughes said, but also bans on dangerous uses of AI such as to infer someone’s ethnicity and sexual orientation or manipulate their behavior. And as with many European regulations, the effects could trickle down to American firms.
Yet the rising calls for guardrails have already triggered a backlash. In particular, a movement known as effective accelerationism — or “e/acc” — has picked up steam by calling for rapid innovation with limited political oversight.
Julie Fredrickson, a tech investor aligned with the e/acc movement, said she envisions the new year bringing further tensions around regulation.
“The biggest challenge we will encounter is that using [tools that] compute IS speech and that raises critical constitutional issues here in the United States that any regulatory framework will need to deal with,” Fredrickson said. “The public must make our government understand that it cannot make trade-offs restricting our fundamental rights like speech.”
Authenticity will grow more important than ever.
Imagine being able to know with certainty whether that vacation photo your friend just posted on Instagram was taken in real life or generated on a server farm somewhere.
Mike Gioia, co-founder of the AI workflow startup Pickaxe, thinks it might soon be possible. Specifically, he predicts Apple will launch a “Photographed on iPhone” stamp next year that would certify AI-free photos.
Other experts agree that efforts to bolster trust and authenticity will only grow more important as AI floods the internet with synthetic text, photos and videos (not to mention bots aimed at imitating real people). Andy Parsons, senior director of Adobe’s Content Authenticity Initiative, said he anticipates the increased adoption of “Content Credentials,” or metadata embedded in digital media files that, almost like a nutrition label, would record who made something and with what tools.
Such stopgaps could prove particularly important as America enters a presidential election year — its first in history that will take place amid a torrent of cheap, viral AI media.
Bill Burton, former deputy press secretary for the Obama administration, predicted: “The most viewed and engaged videos in the 2024 election are generated by AI.”
The steam engine of innovation will keep chugging along …
Last year brought substantial advances in AI technology, from the launch of mainstream products — ChatGPT, deemed the fastest-growing consumer app in history, released its fourth version — to continued breakthroughs in AI research and development.
Many AI insiders think that pace of innovation will continue into the new year.
“Every business and consumer app user will be using AI and they won’t know it,” said Ted Ross, general manager of the City of Los Angeles Information Technology Agency. “I predict that artificial intelligence features and high-visibility [generative] AI platforms, such as ChatGPT, will rapidly integrate into existing business and consumer applications with the user often unaware.”
Other developments could be more niche but no less impactful. Some experts predict a rise in leaner and more targeted alternatives to the “large language models” that underlie ChatGPT and Grok. The AI itself could get better at self-improvement, too.
“There hasn’t been a lot of tooling that targets speeding up AI research,” said Anastasis Germanidis, chief technology officer of the synthetic video startup Runway. “We’ll likely see more of those tools emerge in the coming year,” including to help write or debug code.
… Unless the bubble bursts.
The AI market is frothy right now, but not everyone thinks the glory days can last.
“A hyped AI company will go bankrupt or get acquired for a ridiculously low price” at some point in 2024, Clément Delangue, chief executive of the open source AI development community Hugging Face, wrote in a recent tweet.
Eric Siegel, a former Columbia University professor and the author of “The AI Playbook: Mastering the Rare Art of Machine Learning Deployment,” has struck an even warier tone.
“There will be growing consternation as the lack of a killer [generative] AI app becomes increasingly apparent,” Siegel told The Times, referencing an app that would drive widespread adoption of AI. “Disillusionment will ultimately set in as today’s grandiose expectations fail to be met.”
Eventually, he warned, we could even enter an “AI Winter,” or a period of declining interest — and investment — in the technology.
But that is probably still a few years away, he added: “The current ‘craze’ has built incredible momentum, and that momentum will continue to be fueled as new impressive-looking and potentially valuable capabilities continue to pop up.”
Even the skeptics, it seems, anticipate a banner year for AI.
Business
iPic movie theater chain files for bankruptcy
The iPic dine-in movie theater chain has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and intends to pursue a sale of its assets, citing the difficult post-pandemic theatrical market.
The Boca Raton, Fla.-based company has 13 locations across the U.S., including in Pasadena and Westwood, according to a Feb. 25 filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in the Southern District of Florida, West Palm Beach division.
As part of the bankruptcy process, the Pasadena and Westwood theaters will be permanently closed, according to WARN Act notices filed with the state of California’s Employment Development Department.
The company came to its conclusion after “exploring a range of possible alternatives,” iPic Chief Executive Patrick Quinn said in a statement.
“We are committed to continuing our business operations with minimal impact throughout the process and will endeavor to serve our customers with the high standard of care they have come to expect from us,” he said.
The company will keep its current management to maintain day-to-day operations while it goes through the bankruptcy process, iPic said in the statement. The last day of employment for workers in its Pasadena and Westwood locations is April 28, according to a state WARN Act notice. The chain has 1,300 full- and part-time employees, with 193 workers in California.
The theatrical business, including the exhibition industry, still has not recovered from the pandemic’s effect on consumer behavior. Last year, overall box office revenue in the U.S. and Canada totaled about $8.8 billion, up just 1.6% compared with 2024. Even more troubling is that industry revenue in 2025 was down 22.1% compared with pre-pandemic 2019’s totals.
IPic noted those trends in its bankruptcy filing, describing the changes in consumer behavior as “lasting” and blaming the rise of streaming for “fundamentally” altering the movie theater business.
“These industry shifts have directly reduced box office revenues and related ancillary revenues, including food and beverage sales,” the company stated in its bankruptcy filing.
IPic also attributed its decision to rising rents and labor costs.
The company estimated it owed about $141,000 in taxes and about $2.7 million in total unsecured claims. The company’s assets were valued at about $155.3 million, the majority of which coming from theater equipment and furniture. Its liabilities totaled $113.9 million.
The chain had previously filed for bankruptcy protection in 2019.
Business
Startup Varda Space Industries snags former Mattel plant in El Segundo
In an expansion of its business of processing pharmaceuticals in Earth’s orbit, Varda Space Industries is renting a large El Segundo plant where toy manufacturer Mattel used to design Hot Wheels and Barbie dolls.
The plant in El Segundo’s aerospace corridor will be an extension of Varda Space Industries’ headquarters in a much smaller building on nearby Aviation Boulevard.
Varda will occupy a 205,443-square-foot industrial and office campus at 2031 E. Mariposa Ave., which will give it additional capacity to manufacture spacecraft at scale, the company said.
Originally built in the 1940s as an aircraft facility, the complex has a history as part of aerospace and defense industries that have long shaped the South Bay and is near a host of major defense and space contractors. It is also close to Los Angeles Air Force Base, headquarters to the Space Systems Command.
Workers test AstroForge’s Odin asteroid probe, which was lost in space after launch this year.
(Varda Space Industries)
Varda is one of a new generation of aerospace startups that have flourished in Southern California and the South Bay over the last several years, particularly in El Segundo, often with ties to SpaceX.
Elon Musk’s company, founded in 2002 in El Segundo, has revolutionized the industry with reusable rockets that have radically lowered the cost of lifting payloads into space. Though it has moved its headquarters to Texas, SpaceX retains large-scale operations in Hawthorne.
Varda co-founder and Chief Executive Will Bruey is a former SpaceX avionics engineer, and the company’s spacecraft are launched on SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rockets from Vandenberg Space Force Base in Santa Barbara County.
Varda makes automated labs that look like cylindrical desktop speakers, which it sends into orbit in capsules and satellite platforms it also builds. There, in microgravity, the miniature labs grow molecular crystals that are purer than those produced in Earth’s gravity for use in pharmaceuticals.
It has contracts with drug companies and also the military, which tests technology at hypersonic speeds as the capsules return to Earth.
Its fifth capsule was launched in November and returned to Earth in late January; its next mission is set in the coming weeks. Varda has more than 10 missions scheduled on Falcon 9s through 2028.
For the last several decades, the Mariposa Avenue property served as the research and development center for Mattel Toys. El Segundo has also long been a center for the toy industry as companies like to set up shop in the shadow of Mattel.
The Mattel facility “has always been an exceptional property with a legacy tied to aerospace innovation, and leasing to Varda Space Industries feels like a natural continuation of that story,” said Michael Woods, a partner at GPI Cos., which owns the property.
“We are proud to support a company that is genuinely pushing the boundaries of what’s possible, and are excited to watch Varda grow and thrive here in El Segundo,” Woods said.
As one of the country’s most active hubs of aerospace and defense innovation, El Segundo has seen its industrial property vacancy fall to 3.4% on demand from space companies, government contractors and technology startups, real estate brokerage CBRE said.
Successful startups often have to leave the neighborhood when they want to expand, real estate broker Bob Haley of CBRE said. The 9-acre Mattel facility was big enough to keep Varda in the city.
Last year, Varda subleased about 55,000 square feet of lab space from alternative protein company Beyond Meat at 888 Douglas St. in El Segundo, which it started moving into in June.
Varda will get the keys to its new building in December and spend four to eight months building production and assembly facilities as it ramps up operations. By the end of next year, it expects to have constructed 10 more spacecraft.
In the future, Varda could consolidate offices there, given its size. Currently, though, the plan is to retain all properties, creating a campus of three buildings within a mile of one another that are served by the company’s transportation services, Chief Operating Officer Jonathan Barr said.
“We already have Varda-branded shuttles running up and down Aviation Boulevard,” he said.
Business
How Iran War Is Threatening Global Oil and Gas Supplies
Ships near the Strait of Hormuz before and after attacks began
Every day, around 80 oil and gas tankers typically pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast that carries a fifth of the world’s oil and a significant amount of natural gas.
On Monday, just two oil and gas tankers appear to have crossed the strait, according to a New York Times analysis of shipping activity from Kpler, an industry data firm. Since then, one tanker passed through.
“It’s a de facto closure,” said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer of Pickering Energy Partners, a Houston financial services firm. “You’ve got a significant number of vessels on either side of the strait but no one is willing to go through.”
Tankers have been staying away from Hormuz since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran that began on Saturday. A prolonged conflict could ripple broadly across the global economy, threatening the energy supplies of countries halfway around the world and stoking inflation.
International oil prices have climbed 12 percent since the fighting began, trading Tuesday around $81 a barrel, and natural gas prices have surged in Europe and in Asia.
A senior Iranian military official threatened on Monday to “set on fire” any ships traveling through the Strait of Hormuz. Vessels in the region have already come under attack. Several oil and gas facilities have also been struck or affected by nearby shelling, though the damage did not initially appear to be catastrophic.
Where ships and energy facilities have been damaged
A fire broke out Tuesday at a major energy hub in Fujairah, United Arab Emirates, from the falling debris of a downed drone, the authorities said. On Monday, Qatar halted production of liquefied natural gas, or fuel that has been cooled so that it can be transported on ships, after attacks on its facilities.
The sharp reduction in tanker traffic is reducing the supply of oil and gas to world markets, pushing up prices for both commodities. And the longer that ships stay away from the Strait of Hormuz, the less oil and gas get out to the world, which could raise prices even more.
Shipping companies have paused their tankers to protect their crew and cargo, and because insurance companies are charging significantly more to cover vessels in the conflict area.
On Tuesday, President Trump said that “if necessary,” the U.S. Navy would begin escorting tankers through the strait. He also said a U.S. government agency would begin offering “political risk insurance” to shipping lines in the area.
In addition to tankers, other large vessels regularly go through the strait, including car carriers and container ships. In normal conditions, nearly 160 make the trip each day.
Some ships in the region turn off the devices that broadcast their positions, while others transmit false locations — making it hard to give a full picture of the traffic in the strait.
The Shiva is a small oil tanker that has repeatedly faked its location, according to TankerTrackers.com, which tracks global oil shipments. It is suspected of carrying sanctioned Iranian oil, according to Kpler. The Shiva was one of the two tankers that crossed the strait on Monday.
The oil and gas that typically move through the strait come from big producing countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and United Arab Emirates, and are exported around the world.
Where tankers moving through the Strait have traveled
In 2024, more than 80 percent of the oil and gas transported through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asia. China, India, Japan and South Korea were the top importers, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Countries have energy stockpiles that could last them into the coming months, but a continued shutdown of the strait could damage their economies.
Several big disruptions have roiled supply chains in recent years, but the tanker standstill in the Strait of Hormuz could have an outsize impact.
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