Business
The Google Insider Trading Case Hits Polymarket
Andrew here. Warning: If you bet on prediction markets about things you could know about from your work, it may be insider trading. That’s the lesson from new charges against an employee of Google.
Also, Jamie Dimon is thinking about spending $20 billion on acquisitions; we go through some possible targets. And take our quiz about the U.F.C. fight scheduled to take place at the White House.
Gaming prediction markets
In the public’s view, prediction markets are a way to bet on the N.B.A. playoffs, the Texas Senate race or what Costco executives will say on their next earnings call.
They’re also often seen as a hive of insider trading, a view reinforced by charges filed on Wednesday against a Google employee who made more than $1 million on Polymarket. The case raises more questions about how these platforms are policed — and who should do the policing.
What happened: The Google employee, Michele Spagnuolo (who used the handle AlphaRaccoon), was accused of betting on what people were searching for on Google — wagers he was sure to win because he had access to internal search data.
“Spagnuolo correctly predicted virtually all of the outcomes on these positions,” the Commodity Futures Trading Commission wrote in its complaint.
A Google representative said in a statement that using confidential information for making these kinds of bets was “a serious breach of our policies.”
Spagnuolo isn’t the only person charged with insider trading on Polymarket. Federal prosecutors in Manhattan last month accused Master Sgt. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a U.S. Special Forces soldier, of betting on the capture of Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela, an operation he participated in.
Insider trading is an increasing problem for prediction markets. Polymarket has faced significant scrutiny because its unregulated offshore platform has long made it easy to bet anonymously. (Kalshi, which is regulated in the U.S., has also suffered from insider trading.)
Polymarket has started clamping down on that practice, according to The Information — though some longtime users have chafed at those efforts. “Polymarket will go down the drain if they make KYC mandatory,” one user wrote on the company’s Discord discussion forum, referring to “know your customer” practices.
What are policymakers doing? Critics have accused the C.F.T.C., the primary American regulator of prediction markets, of failing to adequately police the industry. (Mike Selig, the commission’s chairman, told ABC News that his agency actively patrolled for wrongdoing.)
Some lawmakers are seeking to crack down on insider trading, including Representative James Comer, the Kentucky Republican who leads the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, and several bipartisan groups of senators.
Why it matters: Prediction markets have become big businesses. (Kalshi was most recently valued at $22 billion.) But a growing perception that they’re rife with cheating could threaten their popularity.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to fund U.S. drone companies. Shares in Unusual Machines, a drone start-up in which Donald Trump Jr. is an investor and advisory board member, are soaring in premarket trading after The Wall Street Journal, citing unnamed sources, reported on the potential investments. (The Times hasn’t independently confirmed the report.) The deals, aimed at bolstering domestic production, are still in the negotiation stage — equity stakes are a possibility — as the Pentagon vets the companies, The Journal adds.
Investors brace for Thursday’s inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures report for April, which will be closely watched by the Fed, is expected to show on Thursday that headline inflation hit a three-year high of 3.9 percent. The wartime energy spike is a big culprit, and that’s likely to tie the Fed’s hands on interest rates. Lisa Cook, a Fed governor whom President Trump has tried to fire, is the latest policymaker to say that there’s even a rate increase in the cards.
Jensen Huang reportedly agrees to join the board of a Chinese university. Huang, the Nvidia C.E.O., is expected to be the latest U.S. business leader to join the advisory board of Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management, The Financial Times reports. Tim Cook, Apple’s departing C.E.O., is the chairman, and Michael Dell and Elon Musk are members. (Nvidia is trying to jump-start business in China as the Washington-Beijing trade war continues.) Laura Loomer, a right-wing agitator, quickly seized on the Huang news, calling it “a massive scandal!!!!” on social media, and a national security risk.
What might Dimon buy?
Jamie Dimon, the C.E.O. of JPMorgan Chase, is sitting on a pile of cash and says he’s open to a deal. He even put a number on it: up to $20 billion.
While that’s not a big sum relative to the bank’s assets, it got us thinking: Where could JPMorgan, whose last major acquisition was First Republic during the 2023 regional-banking crisis, go fishing for a company to buy? Brian O’Keefe asked Mike Mayo, a banking analyst at Wells Fargo.
Here are three possibilities:
Wealth management. Driven by solid margins and lucrative high-net-worth customers, this area of finance has experienced an M.&A. boom in recent years. (The First Republic deal already bolstered JPMorgan’s wealth-advisory ranks.) Such a move would tick a lot of boxes, Mayo said, adding, “It could be a high-end private bank, it could be kind of a mass-affluent brokerage firm, it could be wealth advisory.”
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Mary Erdoes, who runs JPMorgan’s wealth management division, told analysts in February that her unit had reviewed 25 potential deals last year and passed on all of them.
Payments. JPMorgan has invested heavily in new payment platforms, including in JPM Coin, a digital token it has tested with Coinbase and Mastercard. The bank handles between $5 trillion and $10 trillion in transactions daily, Mayo said. “There could be more opportunities to enhance the efficiency, the effectiveness, the timeliness or the geographic reach in the payments area,” he added.
Digital banking. Dimon recently singled out Revolut, the British banking app that is plotting expansion into the U.S., as an emerging competitive threat. “To the extent that an acquisition could help JPMorgan become the next Revolut outside the United States, that would seem to be attractive,” Mayo noted.
There are some big asterisks to consider. Because of its size, JPMorgan would most likely be barred from buying another U.S. lender on antitrust grounds. For that reason, Mayo thinks that a deal, if there is one, would probably happen abroad.
Dimon himself is being coy. The bank may have amassed ample capital for acquisitions, but “it’s not burning a hole in our pocket at all,” Dimon said on Wednesday at an investor conference. “If it sits there for a while, no problem,” he added.
Dimon did not suggest any potential targets on Wednesday.
Here are some guesses:
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Aberdeen Group, Invesco or Julius Baer in wealth management?
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Revolut is too big, but how about Wise or Toast in payments?
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Or what about Monzo or Bunq, fintech banks that have grown rapidly in Europe?
Meta will charge for its chatbot
Meta will begin charging customers for access to its A.I.-powered chatbot, a big change for a company best known for its free products — and the latest sign that even deep-pocketed companies are wrestling with the enormous cost of artificial intelligence.
On Wednesday, we looked at how companies were reining in the costs of consuming A.I., including by switching to cheaper models. Meta’s move shows that the companies supplying A.I. models are also reckoning with ballooning costs, and seeking revenue to make up for those losses.
Meta is spending a fortune on A.I. Last month the company increased its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to as high as $145 billion, and Meta’s C.E.O., Mark Zuckerberg, said it would spend at least $600 billion on A.I. infrastructure in the next few years.
Some investors have looked skeptically on that plan. The company’s stock is down 2.3 percent this year.
Meta will use paid subscriptions to offset some of its A.I. investment. The basic tier of the chatbot, Meta One Plus, will be $7.99 per month. A premium version, Meta One Premium, will cost $19.99. From Bloomberg, which reported the subscription news earlier:
Meta has long argued that its A.I. investments are already paying off in the form of highly targeted and efficient advertising, which is improved thanks to A.I. models. But the company is also looking for other ways to recoup its A.I. spending, and consumer chatbot subscriptions have become popular with several other A.I. competitors, including Alphabet Inc.’s Google and OpenAI. Both rivals offer similarly priced subscription tiers.
The company has sought to expand its subscription business, testing plans for WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook. It has also tried to cut costs in other corners of its business. This month, Meta laid off 10 percent of its employee base, about 8,000 workers.
Investors, eager to see revenue gains from A.I., cheered Meta’s subscription-chatbot plan. The company’s stock price was up 3.7 percent at the market close on Wednesday.
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Elsewhere, shares in the software maker Snowflake are soaring in premarket trading on Thursday after it reported strong quarterly results that suggested that A.I. agents weren’t clobbering its core subscription business. Salesforce’s analyst call on Wednesday, however, renewed fears that this sector was still vulnerable to A.I. disruption.
Quiz: U.F.C. on the South Lawn
This question comes from a recent Times article. Click an answer to see if you’re right. (The link will be free.)
President Trump is getting ready to celebrate his 80th birthday — and America’s 250th — with an evening of mixed martial arts. Preparations are underway to host Ultimate Fighting Championship matches in an octagon on the White House’s South Lawn on June 14. Construction of the temporary arena, along with a 90-foot-tall arch known as “The Claw,” featuring LED lights and audio equipment, began this week.
U.F.C. plans to spend around $60 million on the event, said Mark Shapiro, the president and chief operating officer of TKO Group Holdings, U.F.C.’s parent company, on a recent earnings call. (He added that U.F.C. would lose about $30 million on the event but that it would be “an investment for the long term.”)
The expenses include about $700,000 to repair the lawn after the fight, Dana White, the U.F.C. president and chief executive, told Sports Business Journal.
How many people will the temporary arena hold for the U.F.C. event at the White House?
THE SPEED READ
Deals
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“SpaceX-Tesla Merger Is ‘Only a Matter of When,’ Early Investor Says” (Bloomberg)
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Shares in the European food-delivery company Delivery Hero are down sharply on Thursday after Uber, which is pursuing a takeover bid for the company, raised its stake to nearly 37 percent. (WSJ)
Politics, policy and regulation
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The attorneys general of New York and New Jersey subpoenaed FIFA over soaring World Cup ticket prices. (WSJ)
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Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said he would impose a 100 percent tax on payouts to state residents from the $1.8 billion fund tied to the Justice Department’s settlement with President Trump. (Politico)
Best of the rest
We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.
Business
Meta ordered by New Mexico judge to pay $567 million in landmark child safety case
In another major blow to Meta, a New Mexico judge ordered the social media giant pay $567 million and take actions to make its platform safer for young people.
The latest penalty is in addition to the $375 million that a New Mexico jury ordered Meta to pay after finding that the company violated state consumer protection laws for enabling the mental health harms and sexual exploitation of adolescents.
The case stems from a lawsuit that New Mexico Atty. Gen. Raúl Torrez filed against Meta in 2023. The lawsuit accused the California social media company of failing to remove child sexual abuse material and prioritizing engagement and ad revenue over safety.
The ruling adds to the growing scrutiny Meta and other platforms are facing over how social media affects the mental health and safety of young people. In March, a Los Angeles jury found that Meta-owned Instagram and Google-owned YouTube were negligent for designing addictive features that harmed the mental health of a California woman. Another youth safety case involving Meta is also headed to trial this month in California.
In the New Mexico case, the First Judicial Court in Santa Fe determined that Meta’s conduct created a “public nuisance” and ordered the company to create a fund to remedy harms.
“Meta’s platforms create a public nuisance because their purpose and effect is to optimize engagement, including in ways that are detrimental to teenagers’ health and safety,” Judge Bryan Biedscheid wrote in the more than 60-page ruling on Thursday.
The court compared Meta to a factory and child sexual exploitation and harm to pollution.
“Just as noxious pollution produced by the factory can harm the common public right to reasonably clean air, the harmful effects of Meta’s platforms on children do not stay contained by its platforms and, instead, migrate to the internet as a whole and, perhaps most concerning, to the real world,” Biedscheid wrote.
The judge outlined steps that Meta must take to mitigate harms including preventing New Mexico minors from engaging in romantic or sexualized interactions with its AI chatbots, eliminating push notifications during certain hours and building a banner screen with resources that’s displayed at least once a week for minors.
The court, though, did acknowledge that social media also has benefits and didn’t go as far as ordering Meta to change its algorithm and recommendations because it affects content on the platform. Measures that would impact Meta’s algorithm would likely violate the 1st Amendment and Section 230, which protects platforms for being legally liable for content posted by its users.
Meta, the parent company of Instagram and Facebook, said it disagreed with the ruling and would appeal.
“We work hard to keep people safe on our platforms and have been transparent about the challenges of identifying and removing bad actors and harmful content,” a Meta spokesperson said. “We remain confident in our record of protecting teens online and will continue to defend ourselves against claims that misrepresent the facts.”
Torrez, the New Mexico attorney general, said in a statement Meta knew for years that its platforms were harming kids and now it’s paying for choosing “engagement and profit over their safety.”
“This is not just a judgment against one company. It is a blueprint,” Torrez said. “For the first time, a court has ruled that a social media giant can be held liable for building products that endanger children and has ordered the structural changes needed to fix it. New Mexico led the way in the courtroom. Now other states, and other countries confronting the same crisis, have a roadmap they can follow.”
Business
L.A. County weighs a grant fund to keep indie films from leaving
Independent filmmaker Sylvia Ray always wanted to shoot her first feature film, “The Middle,” in California — as it’s set in Barstow, where she grew up.
Instead, she shot it in Mexico.
The math made the decision for her. Grants and incentives from the municipality of Torreón and the state of Coahuila covered 30%-40% of her production budget, which came in under a million dollars, Ray said, adding that she didn’t have to pay for film permits, on-site security or local hotel accommodations. Over 21 days in March and April, the production hired 75 local crew members and college students.
“All I needed was a desert landscape and American homes. I could have definitely shot it in L.A. comfortably. Had I gotten more support and made it make sense for us financially,” Ray said. “But it just didn’t.”
Her budget was too small to qualify for any California film incentive at the time, as the state’s program doesn’t reach projects costing under $1 million. Low-budget filmmakers and producers say that gap is a major problem. California’s incentives, even after the recent expansion, are built for productions several rungs above them.
Los Angeles County has plans to change that. Supervisors Lindsey Horvath and Kathryn Barger are developing an Entertainment Evergreen Fund, first introduced last July, which would channel money to productions the state’s tax credit doesn’t reach. The fund would distribute grants rather than tax credits.
No dollar amount has been attached and the county has not committed funding. The board intends to explore a public-private model, with funding sources, amounts and any cost sharing determined only after an outside consultant completes an analysis and presents recommendations to the board of supervisors.
“Like every County initiative, this work must be balanced with our current fiscal realities,” Barger said in a statement, adding that she hopes to build “a sustainable … partnership” that helps keep L.A. as “the global leader in entertainment production.”
“State tax credits have been the most instrumental tool to keep production local, and we want to amplify their success to make clear to the industry: LA County wants you here,” Horvath added.
Director Sylvia Ray on set of “The Middle.”
(Alex Crunker)
Why L.A. got expensive for small films
Many small-budget filmmakers struggle with location and permitting costs in L.A., said Philip Sokoloski, vice president of communications at FilmLA, the nonprofit that coordinates permits and tracks local production.
“Many property owners inclined to rent out their homes or places of business for filming are used to an era where there was a lot of money to go around … It’s not true anymore,” Sokoloski said. “Until that message is widely understood, there’s a certain priced-out-of-the-market feeling that many indies are experiencing.”
A fund, he said, could help offset those costs.
The film grant proposal comes amid a bleak period for local film and TV production, which has struggled to rebound after the pandemic.
Director Vanna James on set for the film “The Seed” in a residential neighborhood in North Hollywood on Tuesday
Despite improvements attributed to an expansion of the state’s film tax credit program, feature film shoot days in the L.A. region dropped 20% in the second quarter compared to last year, while shoot days for TV productions plummeted 30%, according to a recent report from FilmLA.
Making an indie movie is harder than it has ever been, said Steven Wolfe, a producer whose credits include “(500) Days of Summer” and more than 45 other films. Companies are less willing to finance independent projects, buyers are spending less and the exhibition market is harder to navigate. Yet “there’s an audience that’s very hungry for them,” he said.
Wolfe is developing what he calls a passion project with a first-time feature director, set to shoot in Los Angeles. Whether it gets made, he said, depends on whether the fund materializes.
“All of us recognize the need to take extreme action and soon on trying to rebuild Los Angeles as the film capital of the world,” he said.
1. Maurice Hall films a scene for the film “The Seed.” 2. Rolls of gaffer tap on the set of “The Seed,” filming in North Hollywood.
What’s being proposed
The fund is being shaped with input from the Indie Film Task Force, a group of industry voices led by the nonprofit NewFilmmakers Los Angeles. The task force pushed for grants rather than a tax credit, arguing that small budgets don’t generate enough tax liability for a credit to be worth much.
“We see this as a foundational level investment. It is a trickle-up incentive that’s going to feed into the studios,” said NFMLA Executive Director Larry Laboe. “This is a way to invest very little money in a lot of different productions and hope for some big wins from those productions that can trickle up.”
Laboe cites Curry Barker’s box office underdog “Obsession” as the latest example of a major low-budget indie success. The horror flick, which hit theaters in May, was made in Los Angeles for a budget of $750,000 and has since grossed nearly $475 million worldwide.
Laboe, one of the proposal’s leading advocates, has projected the fund’s ceiling could reach $100 million, depending on fundraising. NFMLA isn’t positioned to administer it, though he’s open to a role.
Actor Celestino Camille works on a scene for the film “The Seed” in a residential neighborhood in North Hollywood on Tuesday.
Barger said her conversations with filmmakers, labor representatives and production companies have surfaced “several promising ways an Evergreen Fund could strengthen our local industry,” including “grant incentives that encourage productions of all sizes — including independent filmmakers — to choose Los Angeles County.”
The case against film grants
Film and TV production incentives rarely deliver the economic benefit that justifies them and only occasionally change where a project shoots, said Patrick Button, an associate professor of economics at Tulane University who studies the programs. He sees a particular problem with targeting small productions: Indie filmmakers, already working on thin budgets, are the least likely to relocate in pursuit of a subsidy. Chasing incentives across jurisdictions is largely the province of major studios.
“Despite the goal with these incentives being to attract filmmaking and lead to economic stimulus, that’s not materialized in the data,” Button said. “In general, these incentives don’t have a good return on investment for the states and their counties.”
He also noted “a lot of stress on the L.A. County budget right now, and a lot of other things that the money could be spent on,” and expects the fund’s effect to be “very small.”
Laboe countered that covering even 10% of an indie production budget would help keep work local, adding that filmmakers may be able to layer a county grant with the state credit where it applies.
Who it would reach?
Independent productions are a meaningful share of SAG-AFTRA members’ income, particularly as major studios chase incentives abroad. More small films shot locally would mean more roles, said SAG-AFTRA L.A. Local President Joely Fisher.
“People are rolling up their sleeves, raising money and going to make a movie for under a million bucks,” Fisher said. “But also they’re able to take more chances. People are being discovered in these indie movies, and I think that that’s a great thing for our newer members, who can cut their teeth on something indie.”
Making the film is only half of it. The fund also should address marketing costs, or the films won’t get seen, said Jackie Brenneman, president of the Independent Film & Television Alliance. Those budgets traditionally come from distributors, but more independent films now go directly to theaters without one.
“You have to be able to exploit the thing you make,” Brenneman said. “If we want to be able to access theaters, the theater’s first question is going to be, what’s your marketing plan? What’s your marketing budget?” .
Ray is still editing “The Middle.” Whatever happens with the fund, it won’t reach her first feature. But she’s already thinking about her next one.
“After this film is done, I’ll have my next one to worry about,” she said. “As a filmmaker here, there are so many hurdles, and it would just be nicer to have a clear pipeline, a scaling budget for all of these things and [provide] access to people who want to support emerging talent and artists, not just the studio system.”
Business
Commentary: The feds are issuing tariff refunds to big companies, but you still shouldn’t expect a check
Apple, Amazon and other companies are collecting billions in tariff refunds, but their customers may not see the money.
Back in February, hours after the Supreme Court overturned most of President Trump’s tariffs, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent joshed about whether consumers would get a piece of the refunds when the government refunded the illegal duties.
Responding to a question about that at an economics conference, Bessent stated — with “a condescending smirk,” I reported at the time — “I get a feeling the American people won’t see it.”
Now that the refunds have begun, with hundreds of millions of dollars — in some cases more than a billion — going out to major retailers and manufacturers, we can test Bessent’s conclusion against reality. As it turns out, and to no one’s real surprise, he had a point.
We are not the importer of record for the large majority of items….given suppliers typically handle imports and pay relevant tariffs.
— Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky explains why Amazon won’t be cutting tariff refund checks to most customers
Big companies have been exceedingly cagey about how they’re going to spend the refunded money. But sending checks to customers who paid higher prices because of the tariffs doesn’t seem to be in the offing. Some companies have implied that they might reduce prices, but they haven’t been very specific.
The closest any has come to clarity may be Walmart, whose top executives told investors in May that they had instituted price “rollbacks” on 7,200 items, 20% more than last year. Although they said they would devote the refund to “price investment,” which sounds like lowering prices. They said the wholesale prices on some incoming merchandise were lower than they were during the tariff period and therefore customers would pay less.
But they implied that the rollbacks reflected Walmart’s general practice of squeezing prices lower wherever they can. Anyway, Walmart announces price rollbacks on various items all the time.
Before examining what other companies are planning, here’s some background.
The duties at issue were the so-called “liberation day” tariffs Trump imposed across the globe in April last year. For months, Trump dangled the prospect of tariff refunds — actually, tariff “dividend” checks of $2,000 — in front of taxpayers. In effect, that would mean returning to taxpayers the money that his tariffs have cost them, since it’s black-letter economics that tariffs are a burden on domestic consumers, equivalent to a tax.
In his 6-3 ruling invalidating levies imposed on imports under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, or IEEPA, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. made clear that those tariffs were unconstitutional and illegal from their inception. He left no doubt that those who paid the tariffs are entitled to refunds, though he didn’t weigh in on how that should be done.
Numerous companies, including Costco, filed lawsuits or claims with the government demanding repayment. Several have announced or hinted at how much they’re getting. Apple, for example, indicated on its most recent quarterly earnings conference call that in the second quarter that ended June 31 it received more than $1.6 billion, or about half of the $3.3 billion it had previously marked as its tariff cost.
But Apple didn’t say that it would refund any portion of that sum directly to consumers, perhaps because it had never said the tariffs had prompted it to raise prices in the first place. Chief Executive Tim Cook said only that Apple plans to reinvest the refund “into the U.S.”
It’s worth noting that Apple recently raised prices on many products, but the company ascribed those increases to higher costs for memory chips, driven up by intense demand from AI firms. A company spokesman referred me to Cook’s comments on the conference call.
Amazon, which disclosed refunds of $600 million in the second quarter, says it might pass on refunds to specific customers in “a limited set of circumstances where we can trace that we passed specific import charges on to customers,” Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky told investment analysts on July 30. “When we receive those refunds, we will proactively contact affected customers and automatically issue refunds to them.”
Olsavsky meant what he said when he used the term “limited.” On the July 30 earnings conference call, he said it wasn’t Amazon that paid the tariffs on most goods sold on its website.
“We are not the importer of record for the large majority of items…. given suppliers typically handle imports and pay relevant tariffs.” In other words, if you want a refund, talk to them.
As for merchandise that Amazon sold itself, Olsavsky said the company “did a lot of work forward buying and pre-positioning inventory to avoid tariff costs.” (He was trying to explain why Amazon’s tariff refund seemed so measly.) When I asked Amazon for more details on its tariff plans, its spokesperson simply referred me to Olsavsky’s remarks.
Other companies have said they’ll use tariff refunds to cover other inflationary effects, such as those due to the Iran war. They include PepsiCo and the spice merchant McCormick & Co., which both cited nontariff price increases as a target of the refunds.
Some retailers may have chosen to “eat” the tariffs without directly passing them on to customers, but it would not be surprising to learn that the charges got covered through some other corporate dollar-shifting to preserve profits — you may not have detected it at the kitchen table, but you can be sure it was there, somehow.
The invalidated tariffs cost American households $1,000 each last year and $900 each this year, the nonprofit Tax Foundation reckoned. But the components of that cost are varied and murky, making it hard to determine the best way to return the costs to consumers.
Some of the tariff effect has shown up in higher retail prices for foreign goods or domestic goods made wholly or partially from tariffed imported parts. Higher prices have a more generalized effect on economic growth, which can’t be attributed to specific products.
Trump’s disorganized tariff policies, including his on-again, off-again threats to use them to punish trade partners for actions that have nothing to do with trade, have prompted some companies to defer decisions on plant construction or other capital-intensive efforts. That has created economic headwinds, resulting in fewer jobs.
The Trump administration still seems to resent having to refund tariffs. Appearing on a webcast Tuesday hosted by right-wing figure Steve Bannon, Bessent tried to blame Democrats for pressure to refund the tariffs, even though the order came down from the Supreme Court.
“When the Democrats scream, ‘Oh, the refunds should go back to the American people,’ well, the American people had it,” Bessent said, scowling. “It was in the Treasury and it was paying down the debt.”
Is that so? The $168 billion Bessent cited as the government’s tariff take was a tax on consumers, as pretty much every qualified economist knows. It was charged to domestic importers, not to foreign exporters, and one way or another it was likely to show up at the kitchen table, often by higher prices or reduced availability of manufactured goods but sometimes in less obvious ways. I asked the Treasury Department to clarify, but it declined to comment.
According to Bessent, the tariff income was being used to “pay down the [federal] debt.” If he was implying that the money was specifically pigeonholed for an accelerated retirement of government securities, that’s untrue. The money was swept into the general fund, where it amounted to a relative pittance — one-fourteenth of the amount collected from personal income taxes in fiscal 2025.
Like any other government receipts, the tariff income was used to cover everything the government pays for, including healthcare and national security. Even if the tariff money were specifically directed at debt service, it wouldn’t have done much to defray the roughly $1 trillion in interest the government will incur this year.
By the way, what drives the national debt? To a significant extent, it’s the tax cuts that Trump signed into law in 2017, most of which went to corporations and rich Americans. To follow Bessent’s reasoning, then, ordinary American consumers got charged billions of dollars to pay for a tax cut that put pennies in their pockets.
None of this should obscure that the confusion over tariff refunds stems from federal judges’ willingness to allow Trump to collect the duties even while their legality was a live issue. Nor should anyone think that the issue has gone away: Trump has responded to the Supreme Court’s decision by conjuring up new legal rationales for new tariffs.
One unchanging feature of this battle is Trump’s determination to use tariffs to satisfy his personal pique at one trade partner or another, on grounds that have nothing at all to do with what U.S. industries, if any, need protection from foreign competition and which countries have an unduly large trade surplus with the U.S.
Refunds or not, Trump’s tariff policies will be a continuing weight on the economy, and for most Americans, that weight won’t be lifted anytime soon.
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