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Covid, Russia and Economy Put the ‘China Model’ to the Test

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Covid, Russia and Economy Put the ‘China Model’ to the Test

A yr in the past, whereas many international locations have been nonetheless reeling from Covid-19, China appeared to be certainly one of few locations prospering by way of the pandemic. It was additionally the one main financial system that reported development in 2020. International buyers have been bullish on Chinese language shares whilst Beijing’s regulatory crackdown on its non-public sector grew to become extra like a political marketing campaign.

That led some folks in China to argue that its one-party authoritarian rule supplied a compelling different to conventional liberal democracy. The US was declining politically and economically, they stated, and the world was “gravitating towards China.” Many Chinese language cheered the narrative on-line.

A yr later, the tone inside China is extra certainly one of anxiousness, anger and despair. Prior to now month, lots of of tens of millions of individuals there have struggled beneath lockdowns as coronavirus outbreaks unfold throughout the nation. International buyers are dumping Chinese language shares over geopolitical, regulatory and pandemic uncertainties. And the federal government’s assist of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as he wages battle in Ukraine has risked the world’s criticism, and probably sanctions.

It’s all resulting in more and more anxious questions concerning the nation’s path — and even about whether or not an excessive amount of energy has been concentrated within the fingers of the nation’s chief, Xi Jinping, who’s in search of a 3rd five-year time period on the Communist Get together congress late within the yr.

On social media, a rising variety of residents are accusing the Communist Get together of breaching its social contract with the folks. That they had tolerated, and generally praised, one-party rule in trade for financial development and social stability. However its stringent lockdown measures, that are straining whole cities, and its regulatory crackdowns are costing lots of them jobs and earnings and leaving their futures trying way more unsure and gloomier than a couple of years in the past.

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After one official newspaper, Guangming Every day, revealed a commentary concerning the authorities’s persistence in pursuing its “zero-Covid” coverage, which has led to harsh and unpredictable lockdowns, customers on the social media platform Weibo posted almost 10,000 feedback, with the overwhelming majority urging the federal government to finish the technique. “Please learn these feedback. Please take a look at the lives of abnormal folks,” wrote a consumer referred to as Diqiuren1990. All of the feedback disappeared the subsequent day after the commenting operate was disabled.

After the Chinese language ambassador to the US wrote an opinion piece for The Washington Submit about China’s place on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, tens of 1000’s of social media customers on WeChat rushed to submit feedback on a Chinese language translation. The overwhelming majority of these posts criticized China’s place, which is pro-Russia beneath a veneer of neutrality. “There’s no neutrality within the battle between justice and evil,” one remark stated. “Straddling between two boats will solely find yourself in falling within the water.” All of these feedback ended up censored, too.

And a viral video with the headline “The demise of China’s glory and dream” lamented the disastrous influence of the federal government’s crackdowns on the non-public sector. It was appreciated by most of the nation’s prime buyers, students and entrepreneurs, together with a co-founder of Tencent, China’s largest web firm, who had left the corporate. The video has been deleted.

In non-public, some teachers and businesspeople are discussing rising issues about Mr. Xi’s deal with rivaling the US and proving the viability of the Chinese language political mannequin — a spotlight that some fear has turn into an obsession.

The competitors between international locations, Mr. Xi has stated, is in the end competitors between political methods. The dealing with of the pandemic “made it evident which nation’s management and political system is superior,” he advised prime cadres in January 2021. “Time and momentum are on our aspect.”

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Chinese language residents must be extraordinarily cautious in criticizing Mr. Xi, a few of whose critics have been sentenced to as a lot as 18 years in jail. So some are resorting to quoting former prime leaders to precise their frustration that Mr. Xi has stepped away from the confirmed path of reform and opening that supplied the nation with many years of prosperity.

Some quoted the nation’s former paramount chief Deng Xiaoping as saying the 2 international locations that had benefited probably the most from invading China have been Japan and imperial Russia, and to a sure extent the Soviet Union — a roundabout strategy to say China ought to distance itself from Russia.

They shared photographs of former President Jiang Zemin sharing a dance with Bernadette Chirac, the spouse of France’s former president Jacques Chirac, in 1999. These have been the times when China was extra in style on the planet.

They quoted former President Hu Jintao’s well-known instruction that China ought to “keep away from self-inflicted setbacks,” which one Chinese language diplomat interpreted as avoiding political campaigns just like the Cultural Revolution that threw the nation into chaos and destitution. Quoting that within the present context quantities to a not-so-indirect criticism of Mr. Xi’s ruling model.

They even used the Soviet Union for instance to show the peril of dictatorship. A contemporary nation “ought to have the system to forestall one individual from taking the entire nation over the precipice,” in keeping with one article posted on WeChat, the social media platform.

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The general public’s pent-up anger just isn’t more likely to be sufficient to sway Beijing’s decision-making or to threaten the rule of the Communist Get together, which is accustomed to protecting folks in line by utilizing indoctrination and intimidation. However it marks a departure from the heavy silence that has prevailed beneath Mr. Xi’s rule.

Two years in the past, China celebrated the deserves of its top-down ruling method by pointing to its success in constructing a brand new hospital in simply 10 days in Wuhan and containing the unfold of the coronavirus in three months. Right this moment, many individuals view the makeshift quarantine facilities as a symbol of Beijing’s cussed insistence on a pricey coronavirus coverage that appears to primarily serve the aim of proving the prevalence of its system.

The nation’s unforgiving pandemic management measures are being referred to as the “white terror,” a nod to the huge military of neighborhood staff who put on white hazmat fits. Individuals have shared movies and pictures of protests through which demonstrators chanted, “We have to work!” and “We have to eat!”

Some commenters stated that Beijing had wasted its early success in pandemic management as a result of it believed that its political will alone would suffice to beat the virus. They questioned why the federal government hadn’t spent the massive sources it deployed in mass testing and quarantines on a vaccination drive, particularly amongst older folks. They requested whether or not Beijing was irresponsible in not approving the simpler Western vaccines for the sake of nationwide pleasure.

Many accused the federal government of failing to see the massive sacrifices that companies and people needed to make, or complained that folks have been struggling to get by and falling behind on mortgages and different private loans. They have been offended that some folks had died of coronary heart assaults, bronchial asthma, most cancers and different illnesses as a result of hospitals turned them away beneath Covid restriction pointers.

“So long as you don’t die of Covid, you’ll be able to die of any trigger,” goes a viral on-line quip.

Beijing stays unwavering within the face of public resentment.

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“Prior to now two years, China has totally demonstrated the numerous benefit in its political system and its sturdy nationwide capability in containing the pandemic,” learn a commentary within the state-run Individuals’s Every day newspaper on Monday. The zero-Covid coverage is a “line of protection {that a} nation of 1.4 billion folks must maintain,” it stated.

Beijing additionally appeared to have dug in its heels on supporting Russia by operating a collection of official commentaries that blamed U.S. hegemony for the battle in Ukraine. On Tuesday, a commentary within the Individuals’s Every day referred to as the US “the initiator” of the battle, which it referred to as a “disaster.” On Wednesday, one other commentary on the identical web page stated the US was “including oil to flames” by offering navy help to Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia.

That’s troubling for a lot of people who find themselves anxious that Beijing’s pro-Moscow stance might speed up China’s decoupling from the West, and even result in Russia-like sanctions that may have large implications in expertise, commerce and capital markets.

“Is it good or unhealthy if China is forged on the identical aspect of the Iron Curtain as Russia?” the nationalistic author Wang Xiaodong requested his followers on Weibo. His conclusion: China ought to strive its greatest to keep away from the situation as a result of it must pay a particularly excessive value.

The one coverage space that Beijing has relented on considerably has been its regulatory crackdowns on the non-public sector. After a heavy sell-off of Chinese language shares in mid-March, China’s financial czar, Liu He, urged authorities businesses to roll out market-friendly insurance policies and to point out warning in introducing any measures that risked hurting the markets.

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However China’s political-campaign-style regulatory crackdown has carried out its injury. Mass job reducing, as soon as uncommon in China, is occurring in tech, actual property, training and on-line video games, a few of the industries that have been hit the toughest by the crackdowns. Posts about unemployment are shared extensively as a depressing sentiment grips the educated center class.

“Standing at this historic turning level, we glance again to the Golden Age,” learn an internet submit about China’s 4 many years of financial transformation and desires of particular person prosperity. “All of us thought it might be our future,” it stated. “It turned out to be an illusory dream.”

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Downtown Los Angeles Macy's is among 150 locations to close

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Downtown Los Angeles Macy's is among 150 locations to close

The downtown Los Angeles Macy’s department store, situated on 7th Street and a cornerstone of retail in the area, will shut down as the company prepares to close 150 underperforming locations in an effort to revamp and modernize its business.

The iconic retail center announced this week the first 66 closures, including nine in California spanning from Sacramento to San Diego. Stores will also close in Florida, New York and Georgia, among other states. The closures are part of a broader company strategy to bolster sustainability and profitability.

Macy’s is not alone in its plan to slim down and rejuvenate sales. The retailer Kohl’s announced on Friday that it would close 27 poor performing stores by April, including 10 in California and one in the Los Angeles neighborhood of Westchester. Kohl’s will also shut down its San Bernardino e-commerce distribution center in May.

“Kohl’s continues to believe in the health and strength of its profitable store base” and will have more than 1,100 stores remaining after the closures, the company said in a statement.

Macy’s announced its plan last February to end operations at roughly 30% of its stores by 2027, following disappointing quarterly results that included a $71-million loss and nearly 2% decline in sales. The company will invest in its remaining 350 stores, which have the potential to “generate more meaningful value,” according to a release.

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“We are closing underproductive Macy’s stores to allow us to focus our resources and prioritize investments in our go-forward stores, where customers are already responding positively to better product offerings and elevated service,” Chief Executive Tony Spring said in a statement. “Closing any store is never easy.”

Macy’s brick-and-mortar locations also faced a setback in January 2024, when the company announced the closures of five stores, including the location at Simi Valley Town Center. At the same time, Macy’s said it would layoff 3.5% of its workforce, equal to about 2,350 jobs.

Farther north, Walgreens announced this week that it would shutter 12 stores across San Francisco due to “increased regulatory and reimbursement pressures,” CBS News reported.

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The justices are expected to rule quickly in the case.

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The justices are expected to rule quickly in the case.

When the Supreme Court hears arguments on Friday over whether protecting national security requires TikTok to be sold or closed, the justices will be working in the shadow of three First Amendment precedents, all influenced by the climate of their times and by how much the justices trusted the government.

During the Cold War and in the Vietnam era, the court refused to credit the government’s assertions that national security required limiting what newspapers could publish and what Americans could read. More recently, though, the court deferred to Congress’s judgment that combating terrorism justified making some kinds of speech a crime.

The court will most likely act quickly, as TikTok faces a Jan. 19 deadline under a law enacted in April by bipartisan majorities. The law’s sponsors said the app’s parent company, ByteDance, is controlled by China and could use it to harvest Americans’ private data and to spread covert disinformation.

The court’s decision will determine the fate of a powerful and pervasive cultural phenomenon that uses a sophisticated algorithm to feed a personalized array of short videos to its 170 million users in the United States. For many of them, and particularly younger ones, TikTok has become a leading source of information and entertainment.

As in earlier cases pitting national security against free speech, the core question for the justices is whether the government’s judgments about the threat TikTok is said to pose are sufficient to overcome the nation’s commitment to free speech.

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Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, told the justices that he “is second to none in his appreciation and protection of the First Amendment’s right to free speech.” But he urged them to uphold the law.

“The right to free speech enshrined in the First Amendment does not apply to a corporate agent of the Chinese Communist Party,” Mr. McConnell wrote.

Jameel Jaffer, the executive director of the Knight First Amendment Institute at Columbia University, said that stance reflected a fundamental misunderstanding.

“It is not the government’s role to tell us which ideas are worth listening to,” he said. “It’s not the government’s role to cleanse the marketplace of ideas or information that the government disagrees with.”

The Supreme Court’s last major decision in a clash between national security and free speech was in 2010, in Holder v. Humanitarian Law Project. It concerned a law that made it a crime to provide even benign assistance in the form of speech to groups said to engage in terrorism.

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One plaintiff, for instance, said he wanted to help the Kurdistan Workers’ Party find peaceful ways to protect the rights of Kurds in Turkey and to bring their claims to the attention of international bodies.

When the case was argued, Elena Kagan, then the U.S. solicitor general, said courts should defer to the government’s assessments of national security threats.

“The ability of Congress and of the executive branch to regulate the relationships between Americans and foreign governments or foreign organizations has long been acknowledged by this court,” she said. (She joined the court six months later.)

The court ruled for the government by a 6-to-3 vote, accepting its expertise even after ruling that the law was subject to strict scrutiny, the most demanding form of judicial review.

“The government, when seeking to prevent imminent harms in the context of international affairs and national security, is not required to conclusively link all the pieces in the puzzle before we grant weight to its empirical conclusions,” Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. wrote for the majority.

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Elena Kagan was the U.S. solicitor general the last time a major decision in a clash between national security and free speech came up in a Supreme Court case, in 2010.Credit…Luke Sharrett/The New York Times

In its Supreme Court briefs defending the law banning TikTok, the Biden administration repeatedly cited the 2010 decision.

“Congress and the executive branch determined that ByteDance’s ownership and control of TikTok pose an unacceptable threat to national security because that relationship could permit a foreign adversary government to collect intelligence on and manipulate the content received by TikTok’s American users,” Elizabeth B. Prelogar, the U.S. solicitor general, wrote, “even if those harms had not yet materialized.”

Many federal laws, she added, limit foreign ownership of companies in sensitive fields, including broadcasting, banking, nuclear facilities, undersea cables, air carriers, dams and reservoirs.

While the court led by Chief Justice Roberts was willing to defer to the government, earlier courts were more skeptical. In 1965, during the Cold War, the court struck down a law requiring people who wanted to receive foreign mail that the government said was “communist political propaganda” to say so in writing.

That decision, Lamont v. Postmaster General, had several distinctive features. It was unanimous. It was the first time the court had ever held a federal law unconstitutional under the First Amendment’s free expression clauses.

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It was the first Supreme Court opinion to feature the phrase “the marketplace of ideas.” And it was the first Supreme Court decision to recognize a constitutional right to receive information.

That last idea figures in the TikTok case. “When controversies have arisen,” a brief for users of the app said, “the court has protected Americans’ right to hear foreign-influenced ideas, allowing Congress at most to require labeling of the ideas’ origin.”

Indeed, a supporting brief from the Knight First Amendment Institute said, the law banning TikTok is far more aggressive than the one limiting access to communist propaganda. “While the law in Lamont burdened Americans’ access to specific speech from abroad,” the brief said, “the act prohibits it entirely.”

Zephyr Teachout, a law professor at Fordham, said that was the wrong analysis. “Imposing foreign ownership restrictions on communications platforms is several steps removed from free speech concerns,” she wrote in a brief supporting the government, “because the regulations are wholly concerned with the firms’ ownership, not the firms’ conduct, technology or content.”

Six years after the case on mailed propaganda, the Supreme Court again rejected the invocation of national security to justify limiting speech, ruling that the Nixon administration could not stop The New York Times and The Washington Post from publishing the Pentagon Papers, a secret history of the Vietnam War. The court did so in the face of government warnings that publishing would imperil intelligence agents and peace talks.

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“The word ‘security’ is a broad, vague generality whose contours should not be invoked to abrogate the fundamental law embodied in the First Amendment,” Justice Hugo Black wrote in a concurring opinion.

The American Civil Liberties Union told the justices that the law banning TikTok “is even more sweeping” than the prior restraint sought by the government in the Pentagon Papers case.

“The government has not merely forbidden particular communications or speakers on TikTok based on their content; it has banned an entire platform,” the brief said. “It is as though, in Pentagon Papers, the lower court had shut down The New York Times entirely.”

Mr. Jaffer of the Knight Institute said the key precedents point in differing directions.

“People say, well, the court routinely defers to the government in national security cases, and there is obviously some truth to that,” he said. “But in the sphere of First Amendment rights, the record is a lot more complicated.”

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How the devastating Los Angeles fires could deepen California's home insurance crisis

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How the devastating Los Angeles fires could deepen California's home insurance crisis

When raging wildfires tore through Pacific Palisades and other local communities this week, they not only left a path of destruction reminiscent of a World War II bombing campaign, but threatened to deepen a crisis that has already left hundreds of thousands of Californians struggling to find and keep affordable homeowners insurance.

The multiple fires from Los Angeles to the San Gabriel Valley that have burned thousands of structures since Tuesday — leading to losses that by one early estimate are well into the tens of billions of dollars — hit Southern California as insurers have been dropping customers statewide citing the increasing number and severity of wildfire-related losses.

The Palisades fire alone, which consumed more than 5,000 homes and structures, is being called the most destructive fire ever to hit the city, while the fires across the county are likely to be one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history.

“It’s just an unmitigated disaster,” said Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a consumer advocacy group. “Wildfires in January? This just proves insurers’ point that the risk is so significantly increased due to climate change.”

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State Farm, the state’s largest home insurer, announced in March it would not renew 72,000 property insurance policies, while Chubb and its subsidiaries stopped writing new high-value homes with higher wildfire risk — just to name two insurers that pulled back from the California market.

It’s not clear how many homeowners in Pacific Palisades and elsewhere might not have had coverage, but at least some homeowners reported that insurers had not renewed their policies before the disaster struck. Actor James Woods, who lost his home in the Palisades fire, tweeted Tuesday that “one of the major insurances companies canceled all the policies in our neighborhood about four months ago.”

State Farm last year told the Department of Insurance it would not renew 1,626 policies in Pacific Palisades when they expired, starting last July.

A spokesperson for State Farm declined to comment on the decision but said: “Our number one priority right now is the safety of our customers, agents and employees impacted by the fires and assisting our customers in the midst of this tragedy.”

The situation has left many homeowners in neighborhoods at high wildfire risk with little choice but to seek relief from the California FAIR Plan, an insurer of last resort that sells policies with lesser coverage. The policies cover losses up to $3 million to a dwelling and its contents caused by certain hazards, such as fire, but do not include personal liability and other protection that are typically offered by private insurers.

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The FAIR Plan has seen its policies grow from a little over 200,000 in September 2020 to more than 450,000 as of last September. That has roughly tripled its loss exposure to $458 billion over the same period. Pacific Palisades has one of the state’s highest concentrations of FAIR Plan policy holders, with the insurer estimating its exposure in the neighborhood at $5.89 billion.

JP Morgan analysts estimate that total L.A. County losses could be close to $50 billion, while the losses insurers will have to pay could top $20 billion. Another estimate puts the losses even higher.

Such losses could cause insurers to exit the market completely, which Tokio Marine America Insurance Co. and Trans Pacific Insurance Co. said in April they would do in not renewing 12,556 homeowners.

The losses also could prompt insurers to further raise premiums, even though some insurers already have been granted big rate hikes, such as a 34% increase Allstate received last year.

Denise Rappmund, senior analyst at Moody’s Ratings, said, “These events will continue to have widespread, negative impacts for the state’s broader insurance market — increased recovery costs will likely drive up premiums and may reduce property insurance availability.”

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Should insurers further withdraw from the market, that would put additional pressure on the FAIR Plan, which is is backed by the state’s licensed insurers, such as State Farm, who have to pay claims if they exceed the FAIR Plans reserves, reinsurance and catastrophe bonding. The insurers also can assess their own policyholders surcharges in the billions of dollars to bail out the plan under regulations put in place last year by Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara as part of his Sustainable Insurance Strategy to help the crippled market.

It’s unclear whether the plan will be able to absorb the losses like it did after the 2018 Camp fire that destroyed the town of Paradise in North California. That conflagration was the single costliest natural disaster in the world that year with $12.5 billion in covered losses and $16.5 billion in total losses, according to the reinsurance firm, Munich RE.

“This further complicates an already complicated and hardened market,” Lara said of the fires, in an interview with The Times.

Nonetheless, Lara’s reforms seek to ensure the FAIR Plan remains solvent and to make it more attractive for insurers to write policies in fire risky neighborhoods now being absorbed by the program. He said the regulations should encourage insurers to write more homeowners policies, and if not, they can be adjusted. “I feel very confident,” he said.

For the first time, California insurers can use so-called “catastrophe models” in setting their rates. Instead of largely relying on past claims data, the computer programs attempt to better refine an insurer’s risk by taking into account a multitude of variables that affect a property’s likelihood to suffer a loss.

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The other major policy change allows insurers to charge California homeowners for the cost of reinsurance they buy from other insurers to limit their losses during huge catastrophes, such as wildfires and floods. This cost shift to policyholders is common elsewhere but a big change for California, where it will raise premiums.

In return for those concessions, insurers will have to write insurance in high-risk wildfire neighborhoods equivalent to 85% of their market share, meaning an insurer with a 10% statewide market share would have to cover 8.5% of the homes in such neighborhoods — a target they have at least two years to reach. Lara’s plan has been blasted by the Los Angeles group, Consumer Watchdog, which says the regulations lack teeth in actually requiring insurers to meet the coverage goals.

“The Sustainable Insurance Strategy is not a magic wand. It’s a set of incentives,” Bach said. “At the end of the day, insurers are always still going to analyze, ‘Are we going to make money here or not?’”

How much this week’s fires will disrupt the already troubled insurance market depends, of course, on how big a disaster they are — but all indications are that insurers will have to absorb billions of dollars of claims given the number of homes destroyed, especially in the wealthy enclave of Pacific Palisades, where the average home is valued at about $3.5 million by Zillow.

Insurance industry experts say a clearer picture on the estimated losses will only come after adjusters have time to review submitted claims.

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“I think it’s going to be 45 days before we know what the true damage is,” said Max Gilman, president of California personal lines at the brokerage HUB International.

Whatever the final cost, Gilman noted that the fires came after a couple of relatively light fire seasons — though in November the Mountain fire in Ventura County scorched more than some 20,640 acres and destroyed more than 130 homes amid parched conditions. That made it at the time the third most destructive fire in Southern California in a decade.

“I think what’s currently transpiring is going to be of grave concern for the future,” he said. “I feel like we we took three steps forward to take five steps back.”

Denne Ritter, a vice president with the American Property Casualty Insurance Assn. trade group, said it is too early to assess the impact of the fires on Lara’s reforms, especially given how they are just being put in place. Only one catastrophe model has been submitted for review to regulators, while the reinsurance regulation released last month still awaits final approval by the Office of Administrative Law.

“What the insurance industry wants is a healthy market in California where we can compete for business, as we have historically. And the number one priority right now is helping our customers get the resources they need to rebuild their lives and restore their property,” she said.

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However, she noted that Mercury Insurance — which recently announced it started writing insurance again in Paradise — and Farmers Insurance, which said last month it is increasing the number of new home policies it will write, have “certainly made moves indicating a more bullish approach on the market.”

Allstate also has said it will resume writing new policies once Lara’s reforms are in place and it can get rates that fully cover its costs.

But all those pronouncements came before this week’s catastrophic fires.

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