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Commentary: Trump won't last forever. Here's what it will take to rebuild what he's tearing down

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Commentary: Trump won't last forever. Here's what it will take to rebuild what he's tearing down

The all-purpose adage offering optimism — and sometimes pessimism — to those confronting a crisis head-on is: “This too shall pass.”

One gets the impression that this is a crutch favored by some major institutions that have capitulated to Donald Trump’s demands — such as universities that have committed to fines and payouts stretching out several years, beyond the end of Trump’s current (and final) term and law firms that have made nebulous commitments to represent Trump’s favored litigants in cases that may not even be brought until after the 2028 elections.

Some institutions and services that have suffered major cuts in government funding may be tempted to hunker down, covering what they think may be a temporary shortfall in the expectation that a subsequent administration will restore the withheld funding and cover their interim losses. Recovery, however, may be tougher than they think.

The best-case scenario is that we limp along for the next three and a half years…But that’s just a hope.

— Jonathan Howard, New York University

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I reached out to some of my most trusted contacts in science, medicine, labor and other fields, hoping to hear encouragement that the current situation will be fleeting and it isn’t too soon to look ahead; Trump’s presidential term, after all, is finite.

I ended up with a string of the gloomiest conversations in my long career — and I’ve covered two foreign civil wars and more stock market crashes and economic slumps than I can count. (Well, let’s say more than a dozen.)

“We’re still in free fall and people are still in a ‘shock and awe’ phase,” says vaccinologist Peter Hotez, who has written to defend sound science throughout Trump’s terms. “What’s happening right now is continuing to evolve, and we don’t really know where it’s going. It’s important not to take the attitude of ‘this too will pass,’ hunker down for a couple of years and then it will go back to the way it was.”

The administration’s cuts in biomedical research funding, the “continuing ascendance of the MAHA movement” — Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s disdain for accepted science in favor of pseudoscience — betokens a dark period ahead, Hotez told me. “Even if these things stop tomorrow, you’ve got a pretty demoralized physician and scientific workforce. What this administration has done has given being a scientist an unsavory element — it’s no longer a noble profession.”

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Of particular concern is the administration’s injection of partisan ideologies into the scientific grant-making process, shattering applicants’ confidence that their submissions are considered fairly. The scoring of grant applications by professional panels used to be the key element in the process.

“Now, even if you get a fundable score,” Hotez says, “there’s still somebody behind the curtain who still could nix it for ideological reasons. And even if your first year is funded there’s no guarantee for out years.”

The uncertainty that injects could hamstring scientific research for a generation, or longer.

“How easy is it to rebuild a lab that’s been hit by cuts?” says John P. Moore, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Weill Cornell Medical College, where labs have been hobbled by the administration’s toying with grants. “The answer is it’s very difficult, once you lose key members of a research group, who are often the senior technicians who have institutional memory and keep a program going day to day. At a certain point, a freeze or a termination is not reversible.”

Moore also points to the consequences of a loss of foreign-born scientists. “America is now not a welcoming country for immigrants, period. Scientists who are here on short-term visas are realizing that their future is not in this country. Other countries are seeking to suck up talent that otherwise would have come here. That’s going to have an impact over time, and it’s not going to be easy to reverse.”

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In my conversations with scientists, one name kept coming up: Trofim Lysenko, the charlatan whose reign over Soviet science during Stalin’s regime from the 1930s to the 1960s and whose promotion of an anti-science ideology, especially a campaign against genetics research, encompassed repeated crop failures and famines costing some 7 million lives. I made the connection between Lysenkoism and Trump’s appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to head the Department of Health and Human Services in November.

“The Soviet Union did everything they could to invest back in science and genetics and molecular biology, but it was still stagnant,” says Angela Rasmussen, a leading American virologist now working in Canada. “But despite the attempts to rebuild what Lysenko had torn down, they were never able to compete with people everywhere else because they had lost so much by shutting down all genetics research during that time.”

Three factors could be lasting obstacles: Trump’s undermining of federal employment, of the law and of the economy.

Trump has systematically demoralized the workforce responsible for enforcing the regulations that remain. That’s the observation of David Weil, a labor expert at Brandeis University whose nomination by President Biden for a top-level post at the Department of Labor was sidelined by conservative opposition in 2022.

The law has been a thin reed to lean on, Weil observes. A key example is the attack by Elon Musk’s SpaceX on the National Labor Relations Board, which garnered an opinion from the notoriously right-wing 5th Circuit Court of Appeals last month finding that the NLRB’s structure “violates the separation of powers” established by the Constitution. That’s a remarkable finding, given that the NLRB was established 90 years ago, in 1935.

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“If the Supreme Court upholds the 5th Circuit, “ Weil told me, “that’s the end of the NLRA,” the act that established the board, “and we go back to a system where there’s no federal statutory method for protecting private sector workers.”

What Weil finds especially disquieting is the Supreme Court’s practice of allowing Trump to continue challenged policies while the underlying issues are litigated. “Instead of letting the status quo to prevail until we adjudicate the issues, they’re letting Trump prevail until they adjudicate. That, to me, is a formula for destruction. How do you rebuild then?”

The court has done this by lifting the stays on Trump policies imposed by lower courts, pending further rulings. That’s what happened as recently as Monday, when the court overturned a Los Angeles federal judge’s order that had barred “roving patrols” of immigration officers from snatching people off Southern California streets based on how they look, what language they speak, what work they do or where they happen to be.

One issue casting a shadow over all others is the future course of Trump’s economy. At this moment, the warning signs are all flashing red. Inflation is on the rise — core inflation as measured by the personal consumption index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, rose in July to an annualized rate of 2.9%, the highest rate since February; economists expect the rate to keep rising as businesses pass through more of their tariff-related costs to consumers.

Meanwhile, new hiring has ground to a screeching halt, according to the latest government statistics. The unemployment rate notched up to 4.3% in July, not the direction Trump would like to see. The rate hasn’t been this high since the pandemic year of 2021.

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Trump also has remade the government’s relationship with industry, extracting a fee from the AI chipmaker Nvidia of 15% of its revenue from selling chips to China and taking a 9.9% equity stake in the faltering chipmaker Intel. That’s not the first time the government has owned a piece of a public company — it owned most of GM during the Great Recession, but later sold its stake; Trump is talking about making a habit of these buy-ins through a sovereign wealth fund, an idea that’s far from universally favored by political leaders and economists.

Trump’s rampage through government agencies, especially those devoted to science, health and the economy, has left some so severely damaged that fixing what’s broken might require the establishment of a Cabinet-level post to oversee the repair job.

Consider the state of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, where five top officials resigned or were forced out late last month — including CDC Director Susan Monarez, who was fired after less than a month on the job after tangling with Health and Human Affairs Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Anyone tasked by a future administration with rebuilding the CDC, which once set the global gold standard for public health, will have to be told: “You know you’ll be starting from scratch, right?”

It’s only fair to say that the GOP hasn’t had a monopoly on philistine attacks on scientific research. The pioneer of such cocksure philistinism was Sen. William Proxmire (D-Wis.), who started issuing his “Golden Fleece” awards in 1975. Proxmire became addicted to the fawning press attention he got from caricaturing serious scientific research as ludicrous. His know-nothing rabble-rousing appalled progressives who otherwise admired him for his principled stands against the Vietnam War and in favor of campaign finance reform.

But its more lasting and destructive effect was to render political attacks on scientific research acceptable. Proxmire’s goal was personal aggrandizement. The goal of the current attackers is more sinister — they’re engaged in an anti-science campaign for strictly ideological purposes.

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“The best-case scenario is that we limp along for the next three and a half years,” says Jonathan Howard, a neurologist at New York University and a practiced debunker of the pseudoscience that contaminated efforts to fight the pandemic. “Good people stay on and do good work the best they can and we get a reprieve in three and a half years and the amount of damage they’re able to do is limited in that time. But that’s just a hope.”

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Senators dig into FCC chairman’s role in Jimmy Kimmel controversy

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Senators dig into FCC chairman’s role in Jimmy Kimmel controversy

U.S. senators peppered Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr with questions during a wide-ranging hearing exploring media censorship, the FCC’s oversight and Carr’s alleged intimidation tactics during the firestorm over ABC comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s comments earlier this fall.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) called Wednesday’s hearing of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee following the furor over ABC’s brief suspension of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” amid social media backlash over Kimmel’s remarks in the wake of conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s killing.

Walt Disney Co. leaders yanked Kimmel off the air Sept. 17, hours after Carr suggested that Disney-owned ABC should punish the late-night comedian for his remarks — or face FCC scrutiny. Soon, two major TV station groups announced that they were pulling Kimmel’s show, although both reinstated the program several days after ABC resumed production.

Progressives were riled by the President Trump-appointed chairman’s seeming willingness to go after broadcasters in an alleged violation of their First Amendment rights. At the time, a few fellow Republicans, including Cruz, blasted Carr for suggesting to ABC: “We can do this the easy way or hard way.”

Cruz, in September, said that Carr’s comments belonged in the mob movie “Goodfellas.”

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On Wednesday, Carr said his comments about Kimmel were not intended as threats against Disney or the two ABC-affiliated station groups that preempted Kimmel’s show.

The chairman argued the FCC had statutory authority to make sure that TV stations acted in the public interest, although Carr did not clarify how one jumbled sentence in Kimmel’s Sept. 15 monologue violated the broadcasters’ obligation to serve its communities.

Cruz was conciliatory Wednesday, praising Carr’s work in his first year as FCC chairman. However, Democrats on the panel attempted to pivot much of the three-hour session into a public airing of the Trump administration’s desire to punish broadcasters whom the president doesn’t like — and Carr’s seeming willingness to go along.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) called Wednesday’s Senate committee hearing.

(Associated Press)

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Carr was challenged by numerous Democrats who suggested he was demonstrating fealty to the president rather than running the FCC as an independent licensing body.

Despite the landmark Communications Act of 1934, which created the FCC, the agency isn’t exactly independent, Carr and fellow Republican Commissioner Olivia Trusty testified.

The two Republicans said because Trump has the power to hire and fire commissioners, the FCC was more akin to other agencies within the federal government.

“Then is President Trump your boss?” asked Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.). The senator then asked Carr whether he remembered his oath of office. Federal officials, including Carr, have sworn to protect the Constitution.

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“The American people are your boss,” Kim said. “Have you ever had a conversation with the president or senior administration officials about using the FCC to go after critics?”

Carr declined to answer.

Protesters outside the Jimmy Kimmel Theater in September 2025.

Protesters flocked to Hollywood to protest the preemption of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” after ABC briefly pulled the late-night host off air indefinitely over comments he made about the fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)

The lone Democrat on the FCC, Anna M. Gomez, was frequently at odds with her fellow commissioners, including during an exploration of whether she felt the FCC was doing Trump’s bidding in its approach to merger approvals.

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Trump separately continued his rant on media organizations he doesn’t like, writing in a Truth Social post that NBC News “should be ashamed of themselves in allowing garbage ‘interviews’” of his political rivals, in this case Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.).

Trump wrote that NBC and other broadcasters should pay “significant amounts of money for using the very valuable” public airwaves.

Earlier this year, FCC approval of the Larry Ellison family’s takeover of Paramount stalled for months until Paramount agreed to pay Trump $16 million to settle a lawsuit over his grievances with edits of a CBS “60 Minutes” pre-election interview with Kamala Harris.

“Without a doubt, the FCC is leveraging its authority over mergers and enforcement proceedings in order to influence content,” Gomez said.

Parts of the hearing devolved into partisan bickering over whether Democrats or Republicans had a worse track record of trampling on the 1st Amendment. Cruz and other Republicans referenced a 2018 letter, signed by three Democrats on the committee, which asked the FCC to investigate conservative TV station owner Sinclair Broadcast Group.

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“Suddenly Democrats have discovered the 1st Amendment,” Cruz said. “Maybe remember it when Democrats are in power. The 1st Amendment is not a one-way license for one team to abuse the power.

“We should respect the free speech of all Americans, regardless of party,” Cruz said.

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Commentary: Republicans don’t have a healthcare plan, just a plan to kill Obamacare

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Commentary: Republicans don’t have a healthcare plan, just a plan to kill Obamacare

For millions of Americans, Jan. 1 won’t be an occasion to celebrate the coming of the new year. It will be an occasion for dread.

The reason is the impending termination of crucial premium subsidies for Affordable Care Act health plans. Without a last-minute agreement between congressional Democrats and Republicans, the subsidy structure that has been in place since 2021 will revert to the original arrangement written into the act in 2010.

Millions of Americans dependent on the ACA will face potentially ruinous increases in coverage costs. Many will have to drop their coverage. That process will leave those with the most urgent and costly treatments in the ACA, and those who think they can get away with dropping insurance — or simply can’t afford it — on the outs. The result will be a sicker coverage cohort, which will raise prices for everybody.

I want to see the billions of dollars go to the people, not to the insurance companies and I want to see the people to go out and buy themselves great healthcare.

— An empty promise from President Trump

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The current stalemate is the offspring of the GOP’s 15-year campaign to undermine — really, to kill — Obamacare.

Republicans have dressed up their attack on the ACA with reams of empty rhetoric. They habitually call the ACA a “disaster,” without offering a cogent explanation of why.

Plainly, they see Obamacare as a nice, juicy partisan target, but they’re not reading the room. The ACA’s popularity has steadily increased since mid-2016; in KFF’s most recent tracking poll, taken in September, favorable opinion swamped unfavorable opinion 64% to 35%.

Americans have voted for the ACA with their feet. Since 2018, enrollment in Obamacare plans has more than doubled, from 11.4 million to 24.3 million this year, with a notable enrollment increase starting in 2021, when the premium subsidy structure was improved. That’s the change due to expire on Dec. 31 (Republicans, please note). The enrollment figure doesn’t include the 16.7 million Americans enrolled in Medicaid under ACA expansion rules — a provision still rejected by benighted political leaders in 10 red states.

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They blame the ACA for higher healthcare costs. A few things about this: Yes, healthcare costs have continued to rise since its enactment. But they’ve risen at a much slower rate than before. Out-of-pocket per capita healthcare spending rose at a rate of 3.4% a year from 2000 to 2018, often exceeding the general inflation rate, but by only 1.9% a year since then.

That increase isn’t driven by the ACA. It’s the result of several factors, including the general aging of the U.S. population and a sharp increase in pharmaceutical costs, due in part to the advent of high-priced specialty prescription drugs.

The GOP has amended its attack on the ACA in recent months, as the clamor to extend the premium subsidies has intensified. Republicans are now decrying the ACA as a haven for fraud — “a broken system fueled by fraud,” says House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). Johnson drew his conclusion from a report by the Government Accountability Office published earlier this month.

Johnson may have been hoping that no one would actually go and read that report. I did so, only to find that it doesn’t say what he claims it did. The GAO tested ACA enrollment controls on the federal marketplace — did enrollees accurately estimate their income and submit accurate Social Security numbers? Its test involved submitting applications from 20 fictitious individuals, of whom 18 were approved.

Is this an adequate sample? The GAO itself says it isn’t. The results, it says, “cannot be generalized to the overall enrollment population.” In some test cases, the applications included false Social Security numbers, which are used to verify income claims. But the GAO says that in the real world, absence of verified Social Security numbers “does not necessarily represent overpayments.”

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Are these findings cause for concern? Sure, even though the GAO provided no findings about how widespread these flaws may be. In any case, there’s no evidence here that “the ACA marketplace is a magnet for fraud,” as Johnson called it, suggesting that thousands or millions of applicants are lined up for some healthcare gravy train. And it’s certainly no reason to kill the subsidies.

The other linchpin of the GOP attack on the Affordable Care Act is heavy breathing over how the ACA premium subsidies are paid directly to insurance carriers, rather than as cash to households. This idea trickles down from President Trump but has been embraced by Republicans in Congress. So it deserves a very close look.

Here’s Trump last week: “I want to see the billions of dollars go to the people, not to the insurance companies and I want to see the people to go out and buy themselves great healthcare. Much better healthcare at very little cost.” This has been an enduring promise from Trump, who never bothers to explain how the nirvana of great healthcare at little cost can be achieved.

Here’s Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), a physician who cast the final vote to confirm Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services Secretary, a vote that has left him humiliated over and over by Kennedy: “Republicans absolutely want to help the American people with the affordability of their out-of-pocket [spending]. We want to put money in their pocket to pay the out-of-pocket.”

Before delving deeper into this issue, a few words about the existing ACA premium subsidies.

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The original ACA subsidies capped premiums on a sliding scale ranging from 2.07% of income for those earning 138% of the federal poverty line to 9.83% of income for those at 400% of the poverty line. This year, 138% of the poverty level for a family of four is $44,367, and 400% is $128,600.

The ACA’s architects knew these subsidies were inadequate. Especially troubling was the sharp cutoff of any subsidies for families earning even a dime more than 400% of the poverty level. This became known as the “subsidy cliff.” But it was an artifact of political compromise; the expectation was that Congress would get around to fixing the cheeseparing subsidy schedule at a later date.

In the pandemic-driven American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, Congress refashioned the subsidies so families with incomes up to 150% of the poverty level ($56,475 for a family of four this year) could find decent Obamacare plans for free. For those above that level and up to 400%, the subsidies were significantly increased. That’s the change set to expire Dec. 31.

It’s true that eligibility for these subsidies is technically unlimited, but the conservative trope that they benefit “millionaires” is nonsense. As I reported earlier this year, the new structure means technically that someone earning $1 million a year would have to pay no more than $85,000 per person for an ACA plan.

Is this a handout? ACA expert Charles Gaba tested the claim by hunting for a benchmark Silver ACA plan, on which the subsidies are based, costing that much anywhere in the U.S. The highest-cost plans he found anywhere are in four counties of West Virginia, where a Silver plan for a 64-year-old couple tops out at $63,100 a year — in a state with the highest ACA premiums in the nation.

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Cassidy’s proposal is essentially to replace the existing subsidy enhancements with health savings accounts, which must be paired with high-deductible health plans, and to seed them with $1,000 a year per adult ages 18 to 49 and $1,500 for those 50 and up. Households with income up to 700% of the federal poverty level would be eligible — that’s about $225,000 for a family of four.

Let’s start with the plain arithmetic of this proposal. The accounts must be paired with a bronze-level ACA plan. Those plans cover only about 60% of average healthcare costs. Deductibles are high — at Covered California, the state’s ACA marketplace, the bronze plan deductible is $5,800 per person and $11,600 for a family. Out-of-pocket maximums are also high — $10,600 per individual and $21,200 for a family.

So right from the outset, the Cassidy proposal would leave families facing serious medical expenses out in the cold.

The HSA idea is part of a GOP argument that giving families cash to spend on healthcare gives them “skin in the game” — that by forking over dollars, they’ll be more sensitive to the cost of medical care and therefore seek out or negotiate lower prices.

Two of the argument’s leading academic promoters, Liran Einav of Stanford and Amy Finkelstein of MIT, wrote in a 2023 book lauding deductibles and co-pays that “patients must pay something for their care, otherwise they’ll rush to the doctor every time they sneeze.” More recently, as the facts have come in, they’ve said: “We take it back.”

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The truth is that there’s no evidence that higher financial obstacles to healthcare produce better outcomes. They do discourage unnecessary treatments, as a seminal Rand Corp. study found in 1981. But they also discourage necessary treatments.

The idea that deductibles and co-pays will prompt the average person to seek out low-cost providers is a fantasy. People typically seek out medical care in an atmosphere of urgency. They don’t take the time to compare prices as if they’re buying a car; they go to the doctor and follow his or her instructions, including prescribed procedures and diagnostic tests. (Sometimes they do price shop, but generally for treatments that can be deferred and are medically routine and elective — one study showing cost savings from price shopping focused on hip and knee replacements, for instance).

As for the claims of Trump and other Republicans that Americans, armed with cash in their pocket, can use it to negotiate medical care — who has the time, energy or bargaining skill to do that?

In any case, the HSA is mischaracterized as a healthcare provision. It’s not; it’s a tax break in disguise, useful for higher-income taxpayers who can afford to cover the high deductibles themselves while pocketing a tax deduction. It’s especially appealing for those who are in good health and expect to stay so — they proceed on the assumption that they probably won’t have a serious (and expensive) medical issue.

U.S. healthcare costs per capita have continued to rise since the enactment of the Affordable Care Act, but at a much lower rate than before.

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(JAMA)

The bottom line is that the Republican Party is out of healthcare ideas. They’ve had 15 years to conjure up a better program than the Affordable Care Act, and have nothing to show us except proposals that won’t work for the average family. They’re up against a wall of their own making, and are pretending that they have something better. They don’t, and you and I will be paying the price of their failure.

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Port of Los Angeles records bustling 2025 but expects trade to fall off next year

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Port of Los Angeles records bustling 2025 but expects trade to fall off next year

The Port of Los Angeles expects it will move than 10 million container units for the second year in a row despite President Trump’s tariffs — but that number is likely to drop off in 2026 as the fallout of the administration’s trade war persists.

This year’s volume will reflect a decision by importers to get ahead of the tariffs before the duties took effect — with trade later slowing, according to the monthly report by the nation’s largest container port.

“In a word, 2025 was a roller coaster,” port Executive Director Gene Seroka said during the webcast.

In November, there was a 12% decrease in volume with about 782,000 TEUs, or 20-foot equivalent container units, processed by the port. The decrease was driven by an 11% fall in year-over-year import volume.

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“Much of that difference is tied to last year’s rush to build inventories and now with some warehouse levels still elevated, importers are pacing their orders a bit more carefully,” Seroka said.

Still, by the end of November, the port had moved almost 9.5 million container units, 1% more than last year, leading to the expectation that volume will top 10 million for the year.

The port moved 10.3 million container units last year and set a record in 2021 when it moved 10.7 million container units.

However, exports — cargo shipments from the port — fell for the seventh time in 11 months in November, sliding 8%, which will lead to the first annual decline since 2021. Seroka blamed the drop on the response to the tariffs.

“We’re also seeing the effects of retaliatory tariffs and third country trade deals on U.S. ag and manufacturing exports,” Seroka said. “This is a headwind we may face for some time to come.”

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The port director said he expects that imports will decline in the “single digits” next year because of continued high inventory levels, but he doesn’t anticipate a drastic downturn in overall trade.

“I don’t see the port volume falling off a cliff, and it’s a pretty good leading indicator to the U.S. economy that we should take stock in,” said Seroka, who added that there is much economic uncertainty entering next year.

The question of where the economy is headed was highlighted Tuesday by the latest jobs figures, which were delayed by the government shutdown.

They showed the economy lost 105,00 jobs in October as federal workers departed after the Trump administration cuts but gained 64,000 jobs in November.

The November job gains came in higher than the 40,000 that economists had forecast, but the unemployment rate still rose to 4.6%, the highest since 2021.

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Constance Hunter, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, who provided a 2026 U.S. national economic forecast for the port on Tuesday, said the jobs figures offer mixed signals.

The job gains were driven by the health and human services sector, reflecting a narrowing of where job growth is occurring. At the same time, more types of companies are adding jobs rather than subtracting them.

Hunter forecast that the economy will grow in the first half of the year, as consumers receive tax cuts called for in Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” tax-and-spending measure. However, tariffs will weigh down the economy later.

One key issue driving uncertainty, she said, is whether the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold the tariffs Trump imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

The Trump administration announced Tuesday that the government had collected more than $200 billion in tariff revenue this year. Trump has talked about sending out $2,000 rebate checks to consumers with some of the funds.

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However, a Supreme Court loss would force the government to return, by various estimates, $80 billion or more of the money to importers, putting a crimp in the president’s plans for economic stimulus.

Other factors driving uncertainty, Hunter said, are the Ukraine-Russia war, U.S.-China tensions over Taiwan and the “durability of peace in the Middle East.”

“All of these things are going to conspire to keep what we call the uncertainty index elevated,” she said.

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