Business
Commentary: Trump is demanding a 10% cap on credit card interest. Here’s why that’s a lousy idea
A few days ago, President Trump staked a claim to the “affordability” issue by demanding that banks cap their credit card interest rates at 10% for one year.
Actually, Trump announced that in effect he had imposed the cap, a claim that some news organizations accepted as gospel.
So let’s dispose of that misconception right off: Trump has zero power to cap interest rates on credit cards. Only Congress can do so.
The idea of a 10% rate cap has all the seriousness of bread-and-circuses governance.
— Adam Levitin, Georgetown Law
More to the point, his proposal, announced via a post on his TruthSocial platform, is a terrible idea. It’s half-baked at best, and harbors unintended consequences by the carload — so much, in fact, that the putative savings that ordinary households could see from the rate reduction might be diluted, or even reversed, by the drawbacks.
Still, the idea has so much consumerist appeal that it placed Trump in accord with some of his most obdurate critics, such as Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who has been pressing to place limits on bank fees for years. Warren said she and Trump had a phone conversation in which they seemed to have talked companionably about the issue.
Trump’s announcement did have the salutary effect of placing the issue of financial services costs on the front burner, after its having languished for years. But it obscured the immense complexities of making any such change.
“Certainly this demonstrates a populist streak on both sides of the aisle,” says Adam Rust, director of financial services at the Consumer Federation of America. “But you can’t just write a tweet and upend a huge market.”
The market for credit cards is indeed huge. As of 2024, credit card debt in the U.S. exceeded $1.21 trillion. This is the most profitable line of business for many banks, producing $120 billion in interest income and $162 billion in fees, chiefly those the card issuers impose on merchants.
“Almost 30% of that is pure profit,” reported Brian Shearer of Vanderbilt University, a former official at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, in a 2025 study.
So it should come as no surprise that the entire banking industry has circled the wagons against a cap on credit card interest rates, especially one as stringent as 10%. On Jan. 9, the very day of Trump’s announcement, five leading bank lobbying organizations issued a joint statement asserting that a 10% cap would be “devastating for millions of American families and small business owners who rely on and value their credit cards, the very consumers this proposal intends to help.”
Among its drawbacks, the statement said, “this cap would only drive consumers toward less regulated, more costly alternatives.”
It’s tempting to dismiss the statement as the normal grousing of a big industry about a government regulation. Banks have acquired a certain reputation for profiteering from customers, especially less well-heeled customers, and playing fast and loose with the facts about their costs and profits. But the truth is that on this topic, they have a point.
Let’s take a look, starting with some basic facts — and misconceptions — about credit cards.
The credit card market is heterogeneous, segmented by income and more importantly by credit score. Those with the highest FICO scores typically get the lowest interest rates, but are also more inclined to pay off their balances every month without incurring any fees, even as their average balances are the highest.
About 40% of all users, including many with middling credit scores, pay off their balances monthly but use their cards for convenience, to access fraud protections provided by credit cards but not by other forms of credit, and to garner card rewards.
Interest fees aren’t the issuers’ sole source of revenue. Most revenue comes at the other end of the transaction, in interchange or “swipe” fees paid by merchants.
That’s why card issuers still cherish high-income transactors and shower them with rewards — the monthly balances of users in the 760-to-840 FICO score range vastly exceed those of other users, indicating that they’re generating correspondingly more in interchange fees from the merchants they patronize.
The average interest rate on credit cards reached 25.2% last year, according to a December report by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. It has steadily increased since 2022, mostly because of an increase in the prime rate, the benchmark for card issuers.
How did it get so high? Blame the Supreme Court, which in 1978 undermined state usury laws by ruling that banks could charge customers the usury rate of their home state rather than the rate in the customer’s state. That’s why your credit card may be “issued” by a bank subsidiary in Utah, South Dakota or Delaware, which have lax usury limits. The solution would be enactment of a nationwide usury limit, but that falls entirely within congressional authority.
So what would happen if Congress did place a limit on the maximum credit card interest rate — if not 10%, then 15% or 18%, as has been proposed in the past? Shearer contends that banks make such fat profits from credit card users at every FICO level that they could still earn healthy returns even at a 15% cap. Shearer estimated that a cap of 15% would produce more than $48 billion in annual customer savings “coming almost entirely out of bank profits.”
Other analysts are not so sanguine. “There is no free lunch here,” argues Adam Levitin, a credit market expert at Georgetown law school. Levitin argues that while issuer profits are large, their margins are not so large. He calculates that a 10% cap would make the general credit card business unprofitable, because there wouldn’t be enough headroom over the benchmark prime rate (currently 6.75%) to cover administrative costs and other overhead.
Issuers don’t have many options to preserve their profitability. So they’re likely to respond by shutting the door on low-income and low-FICO customers and ratcheting back credit limits.
“The effects will be devastating,” Levitin says. “Families that need the short-term float or the ability to pay back purchases over several months won’t have it. How will they pay for a new water heater when the old one goes out and they don’t have $3,000 sitting around?”
Many will be forced to resort to other short-term unsecured lenders — payday lenders, buy-now-pay-later firms and others that don’t offer the consumer protections of credit cards and would be exempt from the interest cap on credit cards.
“The idea of a 10% rate cap,” Levitin says, “has all the seriousness of bread-and-circuses governance.”
The availability of credit from alternative consumer lenders that don’t offer the statutory protections mandated for credit cards concerns consumer advocates.
A hard cap on interest rates “could create a sharp contraction in the kind of credit available in the marketplace,” says Delicia Hand of Consumer Reports. “It sounds good, but there could be unintended consequences, especially if you don’t think about what fills the gap,”
Alternative products aren’t regulated as stringently as credit cards. “Direct-to-consumer products can layer subscription fees, expedited access fees, and ‘voluntary’ tips in combinations that produce effective annual percentage rates ranging from under 100% to well over 300% — and in some documented cases, exceeding 1,000% when annualized for frequent users,” Hand said in remarks prepared for delivery Tuesday to the House Committee on Financial Services.
If an interest rate cap is too tight, all but the highest-rated customers might face higher annual fees and stingier rewards. Issuers are likely to squeeze merchants too. Big businesses — think Costco and Amazon — might be able to negotiate swipe fees down and eat the remainder instead of passing them through to consumers. But small neighborhood merchants might refuse to accept credit cards for purchases below a certain amount, or add a swipe fee surcharge to customers’ bills.
Other complexities bedevil proposals like Trump’s, or for that matter bills introduced last year in the Senate by Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) and in the House by Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), capping rates at 10% for five years. Those measures have the virtue of simplicity — they’re only three pages long — but the drawback, also, of simplicity.
Among the open questions, Levitin observes, are whether the 10% cap would apply to all balances or just to purchases. If the former, it remakes credit cards into tools for “low-cost leverage for cryptocurrency speculation and sports betting,” because in today’s interest rate environment it’s cheap money.
Trump’s announcement, in particular, displays all the drawbacks of insufficient cogitation characteristic of so many of his ventures. Published on Jan. 9, it called for the cap to be implemented on Jan. 20, the anniversary of his inauguration: a mere 11 days to implement a change in a $1.21-trillion market with potential ramifications on a dizzying scale.
Since he doesn’t have the authority to mandate the cap by executive order, he’s in effect calling for the banks to make the change voluntarily. Given the impact on their profits, on the gonna-happen scale, that’s a “not.”
Adding to the sour ironies of this effort, Trump’s far-right budget director, Russell Vought, has been pursuing a vicious campaign to destroy the agency with statutory authority over the consumer lending industry, the CFPB — of which Trump appointed Vought acting director.
Vought also rescinded a Biden-era CFPB rule reducing credit card late fees to no more than $8 from as much as $41—further undermining Trump’s attempt to pose as a friend of the credit card customer.
Consumer advocates are pleased that the debate over card fees has placed financial services costs squarely in the “affordability” debate, where they belong.
There’s no question that capping card interest rates at some level could bring savings to consumers to maintain monthly balances — “revolvers,” in industry parlance. “It could be worth several bags of groceries a month, or a tank of gas,” Rust conjectures — “significant savings for millions of people.”
The challenge is finding “where the right level is, balancing risk and availability,” he told me. “That’s not clear at the moment.”
Business
Trump orders federal agencies to stop using Anthropic’s AI after clash with Pentagon
President Trump on Friday directed federal agencies to stop using technology from San Francisco artificial intelligence company Anthropic, escalating a high-profile clash between the AI startup and the Pentagon over safety.
In a Friday post on the social media site Truth Social, Trump described the company as “radical left” and “woke.”
“We don’t need it, we don’t want it, and will not do business with them again!” Trump said.
The president’s harsh words mark a major escalation in the ongoing battle between some in the Trump administration and several technology companies over the use of artificial intelligence in defense tech.
Anthropic has been sparring with the Pentagon, which had threatened to end its $200-million contract with the company on Friday if it didn’t loosen restrictions on its AI model so it could be used for more military purposes. Anthropic had been asking for more guarantees that its tech wouldn’t be used for surveillance of Americans or autonomous weapons.
The tussle could hobble Anthropic’s business with the government. The Trump administration said the company was added to a sweeping national security blacklist, ordering federal agencies to immediately discontinue use of its products and barring any government contractors from maintaining ties with it.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who met with Anthropic’s Chief Executive Dario Amodei this week, criticized the tech company after Trump’s Truth Social post.
“Anthropic delivered a master class in arrogance and betrayal as well as a textbook case of how not to do business with the United States Government or the Pentagon,” he wrote Friday on social media site X.
Anthropic didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Anthropic announced a two-year agreement with the Department of Defense in July to “prototype frontier AI capabilities that advance U.S. national security.”
The company has an AI chatbot called Claude, but it also built a custom AI system for U.S. national security customers.
On Thursday, Amodei signaled the company wouldn’t cave to the Department of Defense’s demands to loosen safety restrictions on its AI models.
The government has emphasized in negotiations that it wants to use Anthropic’s technology only for legal purposes, and the safeguards Anthropic wants are already covered by the law.
Still, Amodei was worried about Washington’s commitment.
“We have never raised objections to particular military operations nor attempted to limit use of our technology in an ad hoc manner,” he said in a blog post. “However, in a narrow set of cases, we believe AI can undermine, rather than defend, democratic values.”
Tech workers have backed Anthropic’s stance.
Unions and worker groups representing 700,000 employees at Amazon, Google and Microsoft said this week in a joint statement that they’re urging their employers to reject these demands as well if they have additional contracts with the Pentagon.
“Our employers are already complicit in providing their technologies to power mass atrocities and war crimes; capitulating to the Pentagon’s intimidation will only further implicate our labor in violence and repression,” the statement said.
Anthropic’s standoff with the U.S. government could benefit its competitors, such as Elon Musk’s xAI or OpenAI.
Sam Altman, chief executive of OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT and one of Anthropic’s biggest competitors, told CNBC in an interview that he trusts Anthropic.
“I think they really do care about safety, and I’ve been happy that they’ve been supporting our war fighters,” he said. “I’m not sure where this is going to go.”
Anthropic has distinguished itself from its rivals by touting its concern about AI safety.
The company, valued at roughly $380 billion, is legally required to balance making money with advancing the company’s public benefit of “responsible development and maintenance of advanced AI for the long-term benefit of humanity.”
Developers, businesses, government agencies and other organizations use Anthropic’s tools. Its chatbot can generate code, write text and perform other tasks. Anthropic also offers an AI assistant for consumers and makes money from paid subscriptions as well as contracts. Unlike OpenAI, which is testing ads in ChatGPT, Anthropic has pledged not to show ads in its chatbot Claude.
The company has roughly 2,000 employees and has revenue equivalent to about $14 billion a year.
Business
Video: The Web of Companies Owned by Elon Musk
new video loaded: The Web of Companies Owned by Elon Musk

By Kirsten Grind, Melanie Bencosme, James Surdam and Sean Havey
February 27, 2026
Business
Commentary: How Trump helped foreign markets outperform U.S. stocks during his first year in office
Trump has crowed about the gains in the U.S. stock market during his term, but in 2025 investors saw more opportunity in the rest of the world.
If you’re a stock market investor you might be feeling pretty good about how your portfolio of U.S. equities fared in the first year of President Trump’s term.
All the major market indices seemed to be firing on all cylinders, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 index gaining 17.9% through the full year.
But if you’re the type of investor who looks for things to regret, pay no attention to the rest of the world’s stock markets. That’s because overseas markets did better than the U.S. market in 2025 — a lot better. The MSCI World ex-USA index — that is, all the stock markets except the U.S. — gained more than 32% last year, nearly double the percentage gains of U.S. markets.
That’s a major departure from recent trends. Since 2013, the MSCI US index had bested the non-U.S. index every year except 2017 and 2022, sometimes by a wide margin — in 2024, for instance, the U.S. index gained 24.6%, while non-U.S. markets gained only 4.7%.
The Trump trade is dead. Long live the anti-Trump trade.
— Katie Martin, Financial Times
Broken down into individual country markets (also by MSCI indices), in 2025 the U.S. ranked 21st out of 23 developed markets, with only New Zealand and Denmark doing worse. Leading the pack were Austria and Spain, with 86% gains, but superior records were turned in by Finland, Ireland and Hong Kong, with gains of 50% or more; and the Netherlands, Norway, Britain and Japan, with gains of 40% or more.
Investment analysts cite several factors to explain this trend. Judging by traditional metrics such as price/earnings multiples, the U.S. markets have been much more expensive than those in the rest of the world. Indeed, they’re historically expensive. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index traded in 2025 at about 23 times expected corporate earnings; the historical average is 18 times earnings.
Investment managers also have become nervous about the concentration of market gains within the U.S. technology sector, especially in companies associated with artificial intelligence R&D. Fears that AI is an investment bubble that could take down the S&P’s highest fliers have investors looking elsewhere for returns.
But one factor recurs in almost all the market analyses tracking relative performance by U.S. and non-U.S. markets: Donald Trump.
Investors started 2025 with optimism about Trump’s influence on trading opportunities, given his apparent commitment to deregulation and his braggadocio about America’s dominant position in the world and his determination to preserve, even increase it.
That hasn’t been the case for months.
”The Trump trade is dead. Long live the anti-Trump trade,” Katie Martin of the Financial Times wrote this week. “Wherever you look in financial markets, you see signs that global investors are going out of their way to avoid Donald Trump’s America.”
Two Trump policy initiatives are commonly cited by wary investment experts. One, of course, is Trump’s on-and-off tariffs, which have left investors with little ability to assess international trade flows. The Supreme Court’s invalidation of most Trump tariffs and the bellicosity of his response, which included the immediate imposition of new 10% tariffs across the board and the threat to increase them to 15%, have done nothing to settle investors’ nerves.
Then there’s Trump’s driving down the value of the dollar through his agitation for lower interest rates, among other policies. For overseas investors, a weaker dollar makes U.S. assets more expensive relative to the outside world.
It would be one thing if trade flows and the dollar’s value reflected economic conditions that investors could themselves parse in creating a picture of investment opportunities. That’s not the case just now. “The current uncertainty is entirely man-made (largely by one orange-hued man in particular) but could well continue at least until the US mid-term elections in November,” Sam Burns of Mill Street Research wrote on Dec. 29.
Trump hasn’t been shy about trumpeting U.S. stock market gains as emblems of his policy wisdom. “The stock market has set 53 all-time record highs since the election,” he said in his State of the Union address Tuesday. “Think of that, one year, boosting pensions, 401(k)s and retirement accounts for the millions and the millions of Americans.”
Trump asserted: “Since I took office, the typical 401(k) balance is up by at least $30,000. That’s a lot of money. … Because the stock market has done so well, setting all those records, your 401(k)s are way up.”
Trump’s figure doesn’t conform to findings by retirement professionals such as the 401(k) overseers at Bank of America. They reported that the average account balance grew by only about $13,000 in 2025. I asked the White House for the source of Trump’s claim, but haven’t heard back.
Interpreting stock market returns as snapshots of the economy is a mug’s game. Despite that, at her recent appearance before a House committee, Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi tried to deflect questions about her handling of the Jeffrey Epstein records by crowing about it.
“The Dow is over 50,000 right now, she declared. “Americans’ 401(k)s and retirement savings are booming. That’s what we should be talking about.”
I predicted that the administration would use the Dow industrial average’s break above 50,000 to assert that “the overall economy is firing on all cylinders, thanks to his policies.” The Dow reached that mark on Feb. 6. But Feb. 11, the day of Bondi’s testimony, was the last day the index closed above 50,000. On Thursday, it closed at 49,499.50, or about 1.4% below its Feb. 10 peak close of 50,188.14.
To use a metric suggested by economist Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan, if you invested $48,488 in the Dow on the day Trump took office last year, when the Dow closed at 48,448 points, you would have had $50,000 on Feb. 6. That’s a gain of about 3.2%. But if you had invested the same amount in the global stock market not including the U.S. (based on the MSCI World ex-USA index), on that same day you would have had nearly $60,000. That’s a gain of nearly 24%.
Broader market indices tell essentially the same story. From Jan. 17, 2025, the last day before Trump’s inauguration, through Thursday’s close, the MSCI US stock index gained a cumulative 16.3%. But the world index minus the U.S. gained nearly 42%.
The gulf between U.S. and non-U.S. performance has continued into the current year. The S&P 500 has gained about 0.74% this year through Wednesday, while the MSCI World ex-USA index has gained about 8.9%. That’s “the best start for a calendar year for global stocks relative to the S&P 500 going back to at least 1996,” Morningstar reports.
It wouldn’t be unusual for the discrepancy between the U.S. and global markets to shrink or even reverse itself over the course of this year.
That’s what happened in 2017, when overseas markets as tracked by MSCI beat the U.S. by more than three percentage points, and 2022, when global markets lost money but U.S. markets underperformed the rest of the world by more than five percentage points.
Economic conditions change, and often the stock markets march to their own drummers. The one thing less likely to change is that Trump is set to remain president until Jan. 20, 2029. Make your investment bets accordingly.
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