Business
Commentary: AI isn’t ready to be your doctor yet — but will it ever be?
As almost everybody knows, the AI gold rush is upon us. And in few fields is it happening as fast and furiously as in healthcare.
That points to an important corollary: Beware.
Artificial intelligence technology has helped radiologists identify anomalies in images that human users have missed. It has some evident benefits in relieving doctors of the back-office routines that consume hours better spent treating patients, such as filing insurance claims and scheduling appointments.
Eventually, a lot of this stuff is going to be great, but we’re not there yet.
— Eric Topol, Scripps Research
But it has also been accused of providing erroneous information to surgeons during operations that placed their patients at grave risk of injury, and fomenting panic among users who take its offhand responses as serious diagnoses.
The commercial direct-to-consumer applications being promoted by AI firms, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT Health and Anthropic’s Claude for Healthcare — both of which were introduced in January — raise special concerns among medical professionals. That’s because they’ve been pitched to users who may not appreciate their tendency to output erroneous information errors and offer inappropriate advice.
“Eventually, a lot of this stuff is going to be great, but we’re not there yet,” says Eric Topol, a cardiologist associated with Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla.
“The fact that they’re putting these out without enough anchoring in safety and quality and consistency concerns me,” Topol says. “They need much tighter testing. The problem I have is that these efforts are largely stemming from commercial interests — there’s furious competition to be the first to come out with an app for patients, even if it’s not quite ready yet.”
That was the experience reported by Washington Post technology columnist Geoffrey A. Fowler, who provided ChatGPT with 10 years of health data compiled by his Apple Watch — and received a warning about his cardiac health so dire that it sent him to his cardiologist, who told him he was in the bloom of health.
Fowler also sought out Topol, who reviewed the data and found the Chatbot’s warning to be “baseless.” Anthropic’s chatbot also provided Fowler with a health grade that Topol deemed dubious.
“Claude is designed to help users understand and organize their health information, framing responses as general health information rather than medical advice,” an Anthropic spokesman told me by email. “It can provide clinical context—for example, explaining how a lab value compares to diagnostic thresholds—while clearly stating that formal diagnosis requires professional evaluation.”
OpenAI didn’t respond to my questions about the safety and reliability of its consumer app.
Topol, who has written extensively about advanced technology in medicine, is nothing like an AI skeptic. He calls himself an AI optimist, citing numerous studies showing that artificial intelligence can help doctors treat patients more effectively and even to improve their bedside manners.
But he cautions that “healthcare can’t tolerate significant errors. We have to minimize the errors, the hallucinations, the confabulations, the BS and the sycophancy” that AI technology commonly displays.
In medicine, as in many other fields, AI looks to have been oversold as a labor-saving technology. According to a study of AI-equipped stethoscopes provided to about 100 British medical groups published earlier this month in the Lancet, the British medical journal, the high-tech stethoscopes effectively identified some (but not all) indications of heart failure better than conventional stethoscopes. But 40% of the groups abandoned the new devices during the 12-month period of the study.
The main complaint was the “additional workflow burden” experienced by the users — an indication that whatever the virtues of the new technology, they didn’t outweigh the time and effort needed to use them.
Other studies have found that AI can augment physicians’ skills — when the doctors have learned to trust their AI tools and when they’re used in relatively uncomplicated, even generic, conditions.
The most notable benefits have been found in radiology; according to a Dutch study published last year, radiologists using AI to help interpret breast X-rays did as well in finding cancers as two radiologists working together. That suggested that judicious use of AI could free up time for one of the two radiologists. But in this case as in others, the AI helper didn’t do consistently well.
“AI misses some breast cancers that are recalled by human assessment,” a study author said, “but detects a similar number of breast cancers otherwise missed by the interpreting radiologists.”
AI’s incursion into healthcare even has become something of a cultural touchstone: In HBO’s up-to-the-minute emergency room series “The Pitt,” beleaguered ER doctors discover that an AI app pushed on them as a time-saving charting tool has “hallucinated” a history of appendicitis for a patient, endangering the patient’s treatment.
“Generative AI is not perfect,” the app’s sponsor responds. “We still need to proofread every chart it creates” — thus acknowledging, accurately, that AI can increase, not relieve, users’ workloads.
A future in which robots perform surgical operations or make accurate diagnoses remains the stuff of science fiction. In medicine, as elsewhere, AI technology has been shown to be useful to take over automatable tasks from humans, but not in situations requiring human ingenuity or creativity — or precision. And attempts to use AI-related algorithms to make healthcare judgments have been challenged in court.
In a class-action lawsuit filed in Minnesota federal court in 2023, five Medicare patients and survivors of three others allege that UnitedHealth Group, the nation’s largest medical insurer, relied on an AI algorithm to deny coverage for their care, “overriding their treating physicians’ determinations as to medically necessary care based on an AI model” with a 90% error rate.
The case is pending. In its defense, UnitedHealth has asserted that decisions on whether to approve or deny coverage remain entirely in the hands of physicians and other clinical professionals the company employs, and their decisions on coverage and care comply with Medicare standards.
The AI algorithm cited by the plaintiffs, UnitedHealth says, is not used “to deny care to members or to make adverse medical necessity coverage determinations,” but rather to help physicians and patients “anticipate and plan for future care needs.” The company didn’t address the plaintiffs’ assertion about the algorithm’s error rate.
“We shouldn’t be complacent about accepting errors” from AI tools, Topol told me. But it’s proper to wonder whether that message has been absorbed by promoters of AI health applications.
Disclaimers warning that AI responses “are not professionally vetted or a substitute for medical advice” have all but disappeared from AI platforms, according to a survey by researchers at Stanford and UC Berkeley.
The issue becomes more urgent as the language of chatbots becomes more sophisticated and fluent, inspiring unwarranted confidence in their conclusions, the researchers cautioned. “Users may misinterpret AI-generated content as expert guidance,” they wrote, “potentially resulting in delayed treatment, inappropriate self-care, or misplaced trust in non-validated information.”
Typically, state laws require that medical diagnoses and clinical decisions proceed from physical examinations by licensed doctors and after a full workup of a patient’s medical and family history. They don’t necessarily rule out doctors’ use of AI to help them develop diagnoses or treatment plans, but the doctors must remain in control.
The Food and Drug Administration exempts medical devices from government licensing if they’re “intended generally for patient education, and … not intended for use in the diagnosis of disease or other conditions. That may cover AI bots if they’re not issuing diagnoses.
But that may not help users who have willingly uploaded their medical histories and test results to AI bots, unaware of concerns, including whether their information will be kept private or used against them in insurance decisions. Gaps in their uploaded data my affect the advice they receive from bots. And because the bots know nothing except the content they’ve been fed, their healthcare outputs may reflect cultural biases in the basic data, such as ethnic disparities in disease incidence and treatment.
“If there’s a mistake with all your data, you could get into a pretty severe anxiety attack,” Topol says. “Patients should verify, not just trust” what they’ve heard from a bot.
Topol warns that the negative effect of misleading AI information may not only fall on patients, but on the AI field itself. “The public doesn’t really differentiate between individual bots,” he told me. “All we need are some horror stories” about misdiagnoses or dangerous advice, “and that whole area is tarred.”
In his view, that would limit the promise of technologies that could improve the effectiveness of medical practice in many ways. The remedy is for AI applications to be subjected to the same clinical standards applied to “a drug, a device, a diagnostic. We can’t lower the threshold because it’s something new, or different, with some broad appeal.”
Business
How Energy Prices Are Driving Demand for Solar Panels and Heat Pumps
Across Europe, the lesson from an old proverb just might be taking hold: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
For the second time in under five years, Europe is contending with an energy crisis set off by a war. Europeans have responded to the price shock by rushing to line up heat pumps, solar panels and electric vehicles. They are hoping to lower their bills and reduce their reliance on imported fossil fuels.
In March, the first month of the war in the Middle East, more than 344,000 electric vehicles were registered across Europe, over 40 percent more than a year earlier, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. Solar panel sales for Britain’s biggest power company, Octopus Energy, jumped 50 percent. And in Germany, inquiries about residential solar systems doubled compared with recent months, according to E.ON, an energy company.
Over the first three months of the year, about 575,000 heat pumps were sold in 11 large European countries, up 17 percent from a year earlier, the European Heat Pump Association said. The increases were particularly large in France, Germany and Poland.
For Heizma, an Austrian company that installs heat pumps, solar panels and other residential electrification services, sales in March and April broke records.
Since the war stopped a vast majority of fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the price of European natural gas, which is relied on to heat homes and power factories, has risen about 40 percent.
As prices spiked, interest in alternative energy supplies kept rising. Michael Kowatschew, a founder of Heizma, said customer inquiries were up 20 percent. Many of them invoked the importance of “resilience” and “European sovereignty.”
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a jolt for Europe, which had been dependent on Russia for critical supplies of energy. European governments turned to other gas and oil exporters, including the United States.
Europeans are noticing “more and more how dependent we are not only on fossil fuels but, through fossil fuels, on other countries and other regions,” Mr. Kowatschew said.
The European Union has spent an additional 24 billion euros on energy imports in under two months, said Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission.
“Households are now seeing that they are only one Trump-ignited war away from very expensive tank refueling or heating bills,” said Elisabetta Cornago, an energy and climate policy expert at the Center for European Reform.
This “shock-awareness factor” means that demand for electric vehicles, heat pumps and solar panels is likely to keep rising, she said.
Demand has increased even as European governments have started to cut taxes on energy bills and diesel and gasoline at the pump to shield households. The costs of solar panels and electric vehicles, still out of reach for some households, are becoming more affordable. Last week, Volkswagen, Europe’s largest automaker, revealed a new electric vehicle model with a starting price under €25,000 (about $29,000), more than 25 percent below a comparable VW popular model.
In Britain, the government said it would allow the sale of plug-in solar panels within the next few months. These devices, which can be attached to a balcony, can help curb energy bills and don’t require the more expensive installation of rooftop panels. They will be widely available in supermarkets and online.
In the meantime, rooftop solar has become more popular. Danny Hirst, the managing director at the Green Way Solar, which installs solar panels in England, has noticed a sharp increase in interest. Last fall, his company was receiving about 10 inquiries a week. Now, it sometimes gets 20 in a single day, he said.
“The general feeling that we’re hearing from clients now is that they’re just getting fed up with the uncertainty of energy prices,” Mr. Hirst said.
But will the interest be sustained? Companies and business groups said it was too soon to know.
For customers, there’s red tape. It can take weeks or months, partly because of regulatory approvals, for a customer to go from deciding to buy a heat pump or solar panels to installing them.
Then there is the push-pull issue of government policies over financial incentives or subsidies, which can drive consumer demand but cause it to taper if they are not designed properly.
Since the war started, countries across Europe have already put in place short-term measures to lower energy costs — more than €10 billion worth, according to an estimate by Bruegel, a think tank in Brussels.
The measures, such as tax cuts on gas at the pump and electricity bills, are predominately aimed at large parts of the population. Experts said governments should target their assistance to the most vulnerable households, while spending more to subsidize low-carbon energy.
This has echoes of the crisis from 2022. At the time, Europe had suddenly shifted away from Russian gas imported via pipelines, a prominent source of fuel. Energy prices rose sharply. Demand for electric vehicles, solar panels and heat pumps jumped.
But when Europe found other sources of natural gas and prices dropped from their peak, interest in renewable technologies waned. Meanwhile, governments had spent hundreds of billions of dollars to shield households and businesses from high energy costs, further reducing the urgency for households to switch to renewables, some analysts said.
Simone Tagliapietra, an energy and climate policy expert at Bruegel, said the lesson for policymakers from 2022 was that they should increase their support for low-carbon technologies, not broad based-measures that cheapen energy from oil and gas. The moment, he said, presents an opportunity for governments.
“We are facing a full-fledged oil and gas crisis,” Mr. Tagliapietra said.
At the same time, history shows that financial incentives needed to sustain consumer interest in technologies like solar panels must be consistent.
Mr. Hirst of the Green Way Solar has been in the solar industry for nearly a dozen years and has experienced the market’s ups and downs. There was a boom right after the 2022 crisis, he said, but then sales dropped. The promise of subsidies drove up interest in renewable technologies, but consumers then waited to make sure they received a subsidy before deciding to install solar panels or heat pumps.
There is a risk that this could happen again.
In Austria, demand for heat pumps dropped in the first three months of this year when some government funds for subsidies ran out.
Mr. Kowatschew at Heizma, the Austrian installation firm, said he was cautious about expanding too quickly. The company was established only two years ago. Its focus is on finding ways to make the installation process faster and more efficient so that workers can outfit two heat pumps a week instead of one, he said.
Still, business is good. Heizma made about €2 million in revenue in April, he said.
“Everyone now knows electrification makes sense,” he said. “It makes a lot of sense to switch to heat pumps, to solar and green electricity.”
Business
California tech company Cloudflare to lay off more than 1,000 workers, cites AI
Cloudflare is laying off 20% of its staff, the latest technology company to announce big cuts as it uses more artificial intelligence-powered tools.
The San Francisco web performance and cybersecurity company said it was getting rid of 1,100 people.
“The way we work at Cloudflare has fundamentally changed,” Chief Executive Matthew Prince and Chief Operating Officer Michelle Zatlyn told employees in an e-mail. “We don’t just build and sell AI tools and platforms. We are our own most demanding customer.”
It is the latest tech company this week to announce massive layoffs as tech workers embrace the use of AI agents to perform tasks such as generating code more quickly. Coinbase said Tuesday that it would cut 14% of its workforce, or roughly 700 workers. PayPal is reportedly planning to slash 20% of its staff.
Other companies such as Meta, Block and Oracle have announced layoffs this year. From January to April, U.S. tech employers announced 85,411 job cuts, up 33% from the same period last year, outplacement and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said Thursday.
Cloudflare’s email, which was published on its blog, said that in the last three months, its use of AI has jumped more than 600%. Employees in various roles in engineering, HR, finance and marketing are running “thousands of AI agent sessions each day to get their work done,” and the company has to be “intentional” as it prepares for the “agentic AI era,” the email said.
Cloudflare executives added that the company is hoping to avoid further major layoffs.
“We are making these changes now because making smaller, repeated cuts or dragging a reorganization out over multiple quarters creates prolonged emotional uncertainty for employees and stalls our ability to build,” the email said.
The company estimates that severance and other restructuring will cost between $140 million and $150 million for 2026.
Cloudflare didn’t say how many of those cuts will be in its San Francisco office. The company has offices in other parts of the world, including Asia, Europe and the Middle East, according to its website.
As of December, Cloudflare had 5,156 employees.
Cloudflare announced job cuts the same day it reported its first-quarter earnings. The company’s revenue jumped 34% year-over-year to $639.8 million in the first quarter. It posted a net loss of $22.9 million.
But the company’s forecast for the second quarter fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. Cloudflare projected revenue of $664 million to $665 million for the second quarter, which was lower than the $666 million Wall Street anticipated.
Cloudflare’s stock dropped roughly 18% to $209 per share in after-hours trading.
Business
Why Stocks and Bonds Are Responding Differently to the Iran War
The unique global status of the U.S. dollar and financial markets, and the strength of the U.S. economy, have enabled the government to retain its current rating. “A large, dynamic economy, the dollar’s reserve-currency role and the depth and liquidity of U.S. capital markets are key sovereign rating strengths,” Fitch said. But a variety of “governance” issues under the Trump administration, as well as the conflict in the Middle East, along with persistent and widening budget deficits, have challenged that credit rating.
Nonetheless, U.S. Treasuries have attracted global investors as a “safe haven” during the conflict. Other countries, like Britain, don’t have that status now. British 30-year government bonds, known as gilts, have reached their highest level since 1998. And Britain’s benchmark 10-year bond yield was close to 5 percent, a premium of more than 0.6 percentage points above the equivalent Treasury.
Major world central banks have responded defensively to these financial storms. As I wrote last week, the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England and Federal Reserve have all decided to take no action on their key interest rates because of the dual risks posed by rising oil prices resulting from the war with Iran: There are heightened risks of both runaway inflation and throttled economic growth.
That dilemma continues. Kevin M. Warsh, nominated to succeed Jerome H. Powell as Federal Reserve chair, has spoken frequently of the need to trim interest rates but the markets are skeptical. They project no Fed action on rates through December 2027 as the most likely outcome, with a greater possibility of interest rate increases than of reductions, according to futures prices tracked by CME FedWatch.
In short, central banks, which control the shortest-duration interest rates, and the bond market, which sets longer rates, view the economic environment with a jaundiced eye. There is a range of possibilities, from prosperity in many developed markets to chaos if the conflict in the Middle East widens. Fixed-income markets tend to focus on risks more than on the potential for windfall profits that the stock market cherishes.
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