Business
China’s Population Declines for 3rd Straight Year
To get its citizens to have more children and stop its population from shrinking, China has tried it all, even declaring having babies an act of patriotism. And yet, for the third year in a row, its population got smaller.
Not even a surprise uptick in the number of babies born, a first in seven years, could reverse the course of an aging and declining population.
China is staring down a longer term baby bust that is rippling through the economy. Hospitals are shutting their obstetrics units, and companies that sold baby formula are idling factories. Thousands of kindergartens have closed and more than 170,000 preschool teachers lost their jobs in 2023.
The country’s birthrate, as one former kindergarten in the southern city of Chongqing put it, “is falling off a cliff.” Enrollments in China’s kindergartens plummeted by more than five million in 2023, according to the most recently available data.
On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that 9.54 million babies were born last year, up slightly from 9.02 million in 2023. Taken together with the number of people who died over 2024 — 10.93 million — China’s population shrank for a third straight year.
The small bump in newborns, in part because it was the auspicious Year of the Dragon in the Chinese zodiac, didn’t change the broader trajectory, experts said. China’s childbearing population is declining and young people are reluctant to have children.
“In the medium and long term, the annual number of births in my country will continue to decline,” said Ren Yuan, a professor at Fudan University’s Institute of Population Studies.
The lack of babies is adding to China’s economic challenges. A shrinking working-age population is straining an underfunded pension system, and an aging society is leaning on a creaking health care system. China also reported on Friday that the economy grew by 5 percent in 2024, a number that was in line with expectations but that many experts said did not fully reflect a crisis of confidence among households reeling from a multiyear property crisis.
To encourage people to have more babies, the authorities are offering tax benefits, cheaper housing and cash. Cities are promising to cover the cost of in vitro fertilization. In some parts of the country, they are even promising to get rid of restrictions that penalize single mothers.
The government has called on local officials to put in place early-warning systems to monitor big changes in population at the village and town levels around the country. Some officials are even knocking on doors and calling women to inquire about their menstrual cycles.
Companies are also getting involved. In 2023, the travel site Trip.com started paying employees nearly $1,400 a year for each newborn until the age of 5. Last week, the founder of electric vehicle maker XPeng said he would give employees nearly $4,100 if they had a third child.
“We want our employees to have more kids,” said He Xiaopeng, the founder, in a video posted on social media. “I think the company should take care of the money, so employees can have children.”
The problem is not unique to China, which in 2023 was passed by India as the world’s most populous nation. Falling birthrates are often a measure of a country’s move up the economic ladder because fertility rates tend to fall as incomes and education levels go up. But China’s sudden decline in population arrived much sooner than the government had expected. Many families are earning more money than they were a decade ago, but have lost income because of the housing crisis.
Officials have long feared the day when there will not be enough workers to support retirees. Now the government has less time to prepare. More than 400 million people will be 60 or older in the next decade.
China is facing two challenges on this front. Its public pension system is severely underfunded and many young people are reluctant — or are unable — to contribute. A low retirement age has made things worse. After years of deliberation, the government decided on a 15-year plan to gradually increase the official age to 63 for men, 58 for women in office jobs and 55 for women who work in factories. The changes took effect this month.
The party only loosened birth restrictions in 2015 to allow families to have two children, an easing that created a sudden boom. Hospitals had to add beds in the corridors because there weren’t enough.
But the moment was short-lived. By 2017, births started declining every year until last year.
In 2021, panicked officials loosened China’s birth policy again, allowing couples to have three children. It was too late. The next year, so few babies were born that the population began to shrink for the first time since the Great Leap Forward, Mao Zedong’s failed experiment that resulted in widespread famine and death in the 1960s.
China has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, far below what demographers refer to as the replacement rate required for a population to grow. This threshold requires every couple, on average, to have two children.
Experts said the number of births would likely continue to fluctuate.
“For a country of 1.4 billion a half million more births is not much of a rebound at all,” Wang Feng, a professor of sociology at the University of California, Irvine. “This is in comparison to the lowest year, in 2023 when the pandemic certainly put a pause on childbearing.”
Many young Chinese people are quick to rattle off reasons not to have children: the rising cost of education, growing burdens of taking care of their aging parents and a desire to live a lifestyle known as “Double Income, No Kids.”
For women, the sentiment is especially strong. Daughters who were the only children in their families received education and employment opportunities their parents often did not. They have grown up to become empowered women who see Mr. Xi’s appeals to them to do their patriotic duty and bear children as one step too far. Many of these women have said that deep-seated inequality and insufficient legal protections have made them reluctant to get married.
The steep drop in babies is having a drastic effect on health care, education and even the consumer market. Companies that once minted money selling baby formula to feed a baby boom are now making shakes with calcium and selenium for older adults with brittle bones.
Nestlé, the world’s largest food company, is shutting a factory for the China market that employs more than 500 people halfway across the world in Europe. The company will focus on selling premium baby products and expanding its offering in adult nutrition in China, a spokesman said.
The pressure on China’s health care system is even more pronounced. Dozens of hospitals and maternal health clinic chains have reported closing over the past two years.
On social media forums, nurses specializing in obstetrics have talked about low pay and lost jobs. One doctor told state media that being in obstetrics, once considered an “iron rice bowl” position with guaranteed job security, had become a “rusty iron rice bowl.”
And some smaller hospitals have stopped paying their staff, Han Zhonghou, a former official at a hospital in northern China, told a Chinese magazine.
“Life for maternal and child hospitals,” Mr. Han said, “is getting harder and harder by the year.”
Business
After ‘Megalopolis’ flops, Francis Ford Coppola puts his pricey watch collection up for auction
Francis Ford Coppola wants an offer he can’t refuse — on his timepieces.
The Academy Award-winning director is selling seven watches from his personal collection, including his custom F.P. Journe FFC Prototype, estimated to sell for more than $1 million, according to a statement from Phillips, the New York City-based auction house. Phillips will hold the auction on Dec. 6 and 7.
The sale could help stanch losses from last year’s box-office flop “Megalopolis,” which cost over $120 million to make and was largely financed by the 86-year-old director. The movie grossed only $14.3 million worldwide.
The film, Coppola’s first since his 2011 horror movie “Twixt,” premiered at Cannes last year to largely negative reviews. The Times’ Joshua Rothkopf called it a “wildly ambitious, overstuffed city epic.”
At a news conference at Cannes, Coppola discussed the tremendous amount of his own money that he had sunk into the film, saying that he “never cared about money” and that his children “don’t need a fortune.”
Among the Coppola timepieces also going under the hammer are examples from Patek Philippe, Blancpain and IWC.
But the headlining piece is the F.P. Journe FFC Prototype that features a black titanium, human-like hand that resembles a steampunk gauntlet that articulates the hours when the fingers extend or retract.
Francis Ford Coppola’s custom F.P. Journe FFC timepiece uses a single hand to indicate all 12 hours.
(Phillips)
The watch was a collaboration between Coppola and master watchmaker François-Paul Journe that began following a conversation the pair had during a visit he made to the filmmaker’s Inglenook winery in Napa Valley in 2012.
Coppola asked Journe if a human hand had ever been used to mark time. That question sparked a years-long conversation during which the watchmaker grappled with how to indicate the 12 hours of the dial using just five fingers.
Journe found his inspiration in Ambroise Paré, a 16th century French barber surgeon and an innovator of prosthetic limbs in particular, including Le Petit Lorrain, a prosthetic hand made of iron and leather that featured hidden gears and springs enabling the fingers to move, not dissimilar to a watch mechanism.
“Speaking with Francis in 2012 and hearing his idea on the use of a human hand to indicate time inspired me to create a watch I never could have imagined myself. The challenge was formidable — exactly the type of watchmaking project I adore,” said Journe in a statement.
Journe eventually created six prototypes and delivered Coppola’s watch to him in 2021.
“I’m proud to fully support the sale of this watch through Phillips to fund the creation of his artistic masterpieces in filmmaking,” he said.
Coppola first became interested in the watchmaker when he gifted his wife Eleanor an F.P. Journe Chronomètre à Résonance in platinum with a white gold dial for Christmas in 2009, prompting the director to extend an invitation to Journe to visit him at his Napa winery.
Eleanor Coppola, a documentary filmmaker and writer, died in 2024 after 61 years of marriage. Her F.P. Journe timepiece is also part of the auction and is estimated to fetch between $120,000 to $240,000.
Business
Disney warns that ESPN, ABC and other channels could go dark on YouTube TV
Walt Disney Co. is alerting viewers that its channels may go dark on YouTube TV amid tense contract negotiations between the two television giants.
The companies are struggling to hammer out a new distribution deal on YouTube TV for Disney’s channels, including ABC, ESPN, FX, National Geographic and Disney Channel. YouTube TV has become one of the most popular U.S. pay-TV services, boasting about 10 million subscribers for its packages of traditional television channels.
Those customers risk losing Disney’s channels, including KABC-TV Channel 7 in Los Angeles and other ABC affiliates nationwide if the two companies fail to forge a new carriage agreement by Oct. 30, when their pact expires.
“Without an agreement, we’ll have to remove Disney’s content from YouTube TV,” the Google Inc.-owned television service said Thursday in a statement.
Disney began sounding the alarm by running messages on its TV channels to warn viewers about the blackout threat.
The Burbank entertainment company becomes the latest TV programmer to allege that the tech behemoth is throwing its weight around in contract negotiations.
In recent months, both Rupert Murdoch’s Fox Corp. and Comcast’s NBCUniversal publicly complained that Google’s YouTube TV was attempting to unfairly squeeze them in their separate talks. In the end, both Fox and NBCUniversal struck new carriage contracts without their channels going dark.
Univision wasn’t as fortunate. The smaller, Spanish-language media company’s networks went dark last month on YouTube TV when the two companies failed to reach a deal.
“For the fourth time in three months, Google’s YouTube TV is putting their subscribers at risk of losing the most valuable networks they signed up for,” a Disney spokesperson said Thursday in a statement. “This is the latest example of Google exploiting its position at the expense of their own customers.”
YouTube TV, for its part, alleged that Disney was the one making unreasonable demands.
“We’ve been working in good faith to negotiate a deal with Disney that pays them fairly for their content on YouTube TV,” a YouTube TV spokesperson said in a statement. “Unfortunately, Disney is proposing costly economic terms that would raise prices on YouTube TV customers and give our customers fewer choices, while benefiting Disney’s own live TV products – like Hulu + Live TV and, soon, Fubo.”
Disney’s Hulu + Live TV competes directly with YouTube TV by offering the same channels. Fubo is a sports streaming service that Disney is in the process of acquiring.
YouTube said if Disney channels remain “unavailable for an extended period of time,” it would offer its customers a $20 credit.
The contract tussle heightens tensions from earlier this year, when Disney’s former distribution chief, Justin Connolly, left in May to take a similar position at YouTube TV. Connolly had spent two decades at Disney and ESPN and Disney sued to block the move, but a judge allowed Connolly to take his new position.
YouTube TV launched in April 2017 for $35 a month. The package of channels now costs $82.99.
To attract more sports fans, YouTube TV took over the NFL Sunday Ticket premium sports package from DirecTV, which had been losing more than $100 million a year to maintain the NFL service. YouTube TV offers Sunday Ticket as a base plan add-on or as an individual channel on YouTube.
Last year, YouTube generated $54.2 billion in revenue, second only to Disney among television companies, according to research firm MoffettNathanson.
The dispute comes as NFL and college football is in full swing, with games on ABC and ESPN. The NBA season also tipped off this week and ESPN prominently features those games. ABC’s fall season began last month with fresh episodes of such favorite programs as “Dancing with the Stars” and “Abbott Elementary.”
ABC stations also air popular newscasts including “Good Morning America” and “World News Tonight with David Muir.” Many ABC stations, including in Los Angeles, run Sony’s “Wheel of Fortune” and “Jeopardy!”
“We invest significantly in our content and expect our partners to pay fair rates that recognize that value,” Disney said. “If we don’t reach a fair deal soon, YouTube TV customers will lose access to ESPN and ABC, and all our marquee programming – including the NFL, college football, NBA and NHL seasons – and so much more.”
Business
10 years since Aliso Canyon: Disaster was wake-up call for U.S. on dangers of underground gas
On an evening 10 years ago, Porter Ranch resident Matt Pakucko stepped out of his music studio and was walloped by the smell of gas — like sticking your head in an oven, he recalled.
Pakucko called the fire department. It turned out crews had already been up to the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility in the Santa Susana Mountains behind the neighborhood, responding to a report of a leak. Many of his neighbors were beginning to feel ill, reporting issues such as heart palpitations, vomiting, burning eyes and bloody noses.
“I swear I thought I was standing behind a 747 with its engines blowing — it was not just gas, it was oil smell, it was chemical smell that permeated,” recalled Pakucko, who went on to co-found the advocacy group Save Porter Ranch. “I couldn’t stay out there for 30 seconds. It tasted like f— gasoline.”
Soon it was clear that this wasn’t just a leak — it was a blowout. Over the course of 112 days, the Aliso Canyon facility would spew an estimated 120,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals into the atmosphere. It was the worst natural-gas well blowout in U.S. history, and an environmental disaster whose effects will be unpacked for generations.
The event was widely seen as a wake-up call to the dangers of methane and underground natural gas storage. Methane, a planet-warming greenhouse gas, is about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide and is responsible for about a quarter of all the human-caused climate change we are experiencing. A study published by UCLA researchers last month found that women in their final trimester of pregnancy who were living within 6.2 miles downwind of the blowout in 2015 had a nearly 50% higher-than-expected chance of having a low birth-weight baby.
The blowout ushered in a wave of new regulations to strengthen the governance of natural gas storage facilities in California and the United States, as well as new tools and technology to monitor methane emissions.
But 10 years later, some Porter Ranch residents say the wounds still feel fresh, and too many promises have been broken. After the disaster, then-Gov. Jerry Brown called for the permanent closure of Aliso Canyon by 2027 — a goal his successor, Gavin Newsom, called a top priority and vowed to meet even sooner.
Instead, Aliso Canyon remains open, with regulators voting in December to continue using the facility for years — probably into the 2030s — citing the need for natural gas to help maintain affordable energy rates and grid reliability in California.
The facility is a key asset for Southern California Gas. In an emailed statement, the company said the state would struggle to meet electricity demand without Aliso Canyon’s storage. The site fuels 17 power plants and helps keep the lights on during the hours that can’t yet be met by solar, wind and other renewable resources, the company said. Natural gas still represents about 40% of the state’s electricity supply.
“There’s a lot of work to do to get off natural gas and oil in California,” said Adam Peltz, senior attorney with the nonprofit Environmental Defense Fund. “That work is underway, but it’s not complete. If you’ve built an economy on fossil fuels, it takes awhile to get off of it.”
Aliso Canyon was originally drilled as an oil field in the late 1930s before SoCalGas converted it to natural gas storage in the early 1970s. Utilities often use played out crude oil fields as places to pump gas downward under pressure and hold it until it is needed.
Aliso Canyon is one of the largest natural gas storage facilities in the U.S.
In the lead-up to the blowout, SoCalGas was filling the site in preparation for the winter heating season. Crews were using tremendous force to pump gas down a well that was more than 60 years old. But a metal casing on well SS-25 had corroded, and gas began blowing out at very high volumes.
Methane is not visible to the naked eye, but aerial images captured with infrared cameras and released by the Environmental Defense Fund showed a geyser-like eruption of the flammable, climate changing gas — making it clear to the whole world the magnitude of the disaster.
Matt Pakucko, right, founder of Save Porter Ranch, and other protesters against SoCalGas hold a rally at the intersection of Tampa Avenue and Rinaldi Street on Sept. 28, 2021, in Porter Ranch.
(Irfan Khan / Los Angeles Times)
It took nearly four months for crews to stop the leak. By that time, damage was done. More than 8,000 households were temporarily displaced, businesses were shut down, and two schools were relocated for several months.
Researchers are still working to unpack the health outcomes of the event. SoCalGas, meanwhile, has paid about $2 billion in settlements and agreed to operate the facility at a lower maximum pressure.
Officials with the gas company said they have shored up the facility, including replacing the inner steel tubing on all operating wells and conducting continuous ambient methane monitoring. All wells at the site are subject to real-time pressure readings and visual inspections four times a day, among other protocols, SoCalGas said.
“Over the past 10 years, SoCalGas has conducted comprehensive safety reviews and implemented multiple safety layers that protect one of California’s most important assets for energy reliability and affordability,” the company said.
While the maximum allowable operating pressure at the site remains reduced — about 3,183 pounds per square inch compared with 3,600 pounds per square inch in 2015 — state officials recently voted to let SoCalGas increase storage at the facility to 68.6 billion cubic feet of natural gas from 41 billion cubic feet, outraging many in the community.
But experts say there are silver linings to the disaster. California overhauled its underground natural gas storage regulations to make them the strongest in the nation and among the strongest in the world, according to Peltz, of the Environmental Defense Fund. The changes include more thoughtful rules for well construction, better monitoring and risk management, and improved planning and emergency response.
Congress reacted to the disaster by requiring its regulatory agency, the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration, to issue safety standards for natural gas storage nationwide. In 2016, it adopted best practices recommended by the American Petroleum Institute, which were strengthened at the beginning of this month.
Many states with natural gas storage previously had no regulations at all, Peltz said.
“On a national basis, the systems will be safer as a result of that change,” he said.
There have been technological advancements too. The infrared aerial recording of the leak captured in 2015 was a relatively new technique at the time, but has now become commonplace. The California Air Resources Board conducted its first large-scale statewide aerial methane survey in 2016, identifying many of the largest methane sources in the state.
There have also been considerable advancements in the ability to observe methane super-emitters through satellites and remote sensors, according to Seth Shonkoff, executive director at the science research institute PSE Healthy Energy and an associate researcher at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health.
“The rub is that we know more than we ever have, and we’re perhaps controlling more than we would have if we didn’t have the technology to see them, but we’re still seeing more and more of these large-scale emission events all across the United States and all across the world,” he said.
Methane concentrations in the atmosphere are still rising. It is streaming, often constantly, from facilities associated with the oil and gas industry, landfills and dairy farms, among other sources.
The Aliso Canyon Southern California Gas storage facility on May 28, 2020.
(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)
Methane isn’t the only concern either. Researchers now have a better understanding of what’s in the gas that blew from Aliso Canyon and that continues to be stored in natural gas facilities around the country. Although it is primarily composed of methane, roughly 99% of samples analyzed by Shonkoff and his team have contained hazardous air pollutants such as benzene, hexane and toluene, largely as a result of commingling with depleted oil and other subsurface materials.
Moving forward, he said, it will be critically important for gas companies to disclose to regulators and risk managers what their gas is composed of, so that if it leaks, responders can quickly determine the appropriate response.
“If we had had that with Aliso Canyon, we could have, within a matter of hours, understood whether people should get out of the way or stay inside, and we wouldn’t have had as many people suffering from health symptoms,” Shonkoff said.
In 2024, the Biden administration passed the first comprehensive rules to limit methane pollution by fining oil and gas developers for excessive emissions. But this year, the Trump administration revoked the rule, which it described as a tax.
At the same time, many natural gas storage facilities across the country are old and require retrofitting to meet current regulations, but such upgrades can be slow and expensive — often leaving ratepayers on the hook.
Residents near Aliso Canyon have also long feared an earthquake or wildfire in the area. The gas field sits along the Santa Susana fault and is in a high fire hazard severity zone. SoCalGas says it has numerous safety plans and procedures in place.
Perhaps the greatest tension remains between those who wish to see Aliso Canyon shuttered and the officials who say the facility is critically important to California’s energy supply, which is increasingly trying to serve power-hungry artificial intelligence data centers.
Dozens of Porter Ranch protesters chant “shut it all down,” as they demonstrate at the Aliso Canyon gas storage facility in Porter Ranch on May 15, 2016.
(Francine Orr / Los Angeles Times)
California has committed to reaching 100% carbon neutrality by 2045. But SoCalGas says it still needs Aliso Canyon.
“SoCalGas is aligned with the state of California in pursuing the technologies and infrastructure that supports California’s climate plan, including clean renewable hydrogen and renewable natural gas, that could, over time with other renewable energy projects, deliver the reliability and affordability Aliso Canyon supports today,” the utility said in a statement. However, any decision to reduce or eliminate operations at Aliso Canyon must be based on genuine reduced demand that is permanent, the company said.
Pakucko, of Save Porter Ranch, noted that the facility was offline for two years after the blowout without an interruption in service.
“Two years!” he said. “And guess what? We managed without the facility.”
For others in the area, it feels like the latest in string of broken promises.
Among SoCalGas’s settlement agreements was a $120-million consent decree with the state of California requiring the utility to fund methane mitigation projects, air monitoring and other initiatives to address alleged harms caused by the blowout. About $25 million of that went toward a long-term health study on the effects of natural gas exposure, which is being conducted by researchers at UCLA. The results are eagerly awaited.
About $26 million went to a program for dairy digesters in the Central Valley, which capture methane from cow manure before it enters the atmosphere. Many had hoped those funds would be spent closer to home, including former L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti, who at one point envisioned the mitigation money being used to transform Porter Ranch into a net-zero community.
“That would have been so great,” said Patty Gleuck, a Porter Ranch resident who served on the community advisory group for the health study. Instead, “that money went to this dairy digester program that does not benefit this area.”
Like Pakucko, Gleuck recalled suffering health effects during the blowout, including a tightness in her chest and a metallic taste in her mouth that dissipated when she left the area and resumed when she returned.
She still suffers from a chronic cough and uses an inhaler, she said, adding that “a lot of inhalers were prescribed in the area.”
“A lot of people moved away, taking a loss on their homes because they were so sick, or their family members were sick,” she said. “I just don’t think that there has been justice.”
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