Connect with us

Business

A Decade-Long Search for a Battery That Can End the Gasoline Era

Published

on

A Decade-Long Search for a Battery That Can End the Gasoline Era

On a frigid day in early January, as she worked in her office in the Boston suburb of Billerica, Mass., Siyu Huang received a two-word text message.

“Spinning wheels,” it said. Attached was a short video clip showing a car on rollers in an indoor testing center.

To the untrained eye there was nothing remarkable in the video. The car could have been getting its emissions tested at a Connecticut auto repair shop (except it had no tailpipe). But to Ms. Huang, the chief executive of Factorial Energy, the video was a milestone in a quest that had already occupied a decade of her life.

Ms. Huang, her husband, Alex Yu, and their employees at Factorial had been working on a new kind of electric vehicle battery, known as solid state, that could turn the auto industry on its head in a few years — if a daunting number of technical challenges could be overcome.

For Ms. Huang and her company, the battery had the potential to change the way consumers think about electric vehicles, give the United States and Europe a leg up on China, and help save the planet.

Advertisement

Factorial is one of dozens of companies trying to invent batteries that can charge faster, go farther, and make electric cars cheaper and more convenient than gasoline vehicles. Transportation is the biggest source of man-made greenhouse gases, and electric vehicles could be a potent weapon against climate change and urban air pollution.

The video that landed in Ms. Huang’s phone was from Uwe Keller, the head of battery development at Mercedes-Benz, which had been supporting Factorial’s research with money and expertise.

The short clip, of a Mercedes sedan at a research lab near Stuttgart, Germany, signaled that the company had installed Factorial’s battery in a car — and that it could actually make the wheels move.

The test was an important step forward in a journey that had begun while Ms. Huang and Mr. Yu were still graduate students at Cornell University. Until then, all their work had been in laboratories. Ms. Huang was excited that their invention was venturing into the world.

But there was still a long way to go. The Mercedes with a Factorial battery hadn’t yet been taken out on the road. That was the only place the technology really mattered.

Advertisement

Many start-ups have produced solid-state battery prototypes. But no American or European carmaker has put one into a production vehicle and proved that the technology could survive the bumps, vibrations and moisture of the streets. Or if any have, they have kept it a secret.

In late 2023, Mr. Keller, a veteran Mercedes engineer, proposed to Ms. Huang that they try.

“We’re car guys,” Mr. Keller said later. “We believe in things really moving.”

Ms. Huang stands out in a niche dominated by men from Silicon Valley. Some brag about their 100-hour workweeks; she believes in a good night’s sleep. “Having a clear mind to make the right decision is more important than how many hours you work,” she said.

She is approachable and laughs easily, but also projects determination. She works from a sparsely decorated office in Billerica that looks out on a patch of forest crossed by power lines. The furnishings include a plain black bookcase, stocked with a few technical volumes, that she inherited from a previous tenant. Her diplomas from Cornell — a Ph.D. in chemistry and a master’s in business administration — hang on the wall.

Advertisement

Ms. Huang grew up in Nanjing, China, where she was in an elementary school program that had her gather environmental data. The program instilled an interest in chemistry and an awareness of the vehicle exhaust and industrial pollution choking Nanjing’s air. She realized, she recalled, that “we need to grow a planet that’s healthier for human beings.”

In a dormitory at Xiamen University on China’s southern coast, where she studied chemistry, she saw an advertisement for a Swedish exchange program. After spending two years there, she and Alex, whom she had known since they were students in China, were both accepted to doctoral programs in Cornell’s chemistry department. She arrived in Ithaca, N.Y., in 2009 with $3,000, which she had managed to save from her Swedish scholarship. They have both since become U.S. citizens.

They were star students, said Héctor Abruña, a professor at Cornell known for his research in electrochemistry. He still has a picture on his office bookshelf of himself with Mr. Yu and Ms. Huang in their commencement robes.

With an idea that grew out of Dr. Abruña’s lab and some seed money from the State of New York, Mr. Yu and Ms. Huang founded the company that later became Factorial while she was still completing her business degree.

“They are extremely dedicated and extremely bright,” said Dr. Abruña, who continues to advise Factorial. “Straight shooters — zero BS.”

Advertisement

Mr. Yu is now Factorial’s chief technology officer. The company is, in that sense, a family operation. Ms. Huang is reticent about their private life, declining to say even how many children they have.

Initially the company focused on improving the materials that allow batteries to store energy. That changed after Mercedes invested in Factorial in 2021. Mercedes was looking for a bigger technological leap and encouraged Factorial to pursue solid state.

The technology has that name because it eliminates the liquid chemical mixture, known as an electrolyte, that helps transport energy-laden ions inside a battery. Liquid electrolytes are highly flammable. Replacing them with a solid or gelatinlike electrolyte makes batteries safer.

A battery that doesn’t overheat can be charged faster, perhaps in as little time as it takes to fill a car with gasoline. And solid-state batteries pack more energy into a smaller space, reducing weight and increasing range.

But solid-state batteries have one big drawback that explains why you can’t buy a car with one today. Such battery cells are more prone to grow spiky irregularities that cause short circuits. Vast riches await any company that can overcome this problem and develop a battery that is durable, safe and reasonably easy to manufacture.

Advertisement

Despite obvious differences between Factorial and Mercedes — the start-up has a little more than 100 employees, compared with 175,000 — Ms. Huang’s working style meshed with the culture at Mercedes and its roots in Swabia, the region around Stuttgart where people are known for their no-nonsense approach and restraint.

Mr. Keller found Ms. Huang’s low-key, factual manner to be a welcome contrast to the hype and unfulfilled promises that are pervasive in the battery and technology industries. Factorial, he said, “has not been announcing, announcing, announcing and not delivering.”

It’s an axiom in the battery business that producing a cool prototype is the easy part. The challenge is figuring out how to make millions of solid-state batteries at a reasonable price.

Factorial confronted that problem in 2022, setting up a small pilot factory in Cheonan, South Korea, a city near Seoul known for its tech industry. The project became, in Ms. Huang’s words, “production hell” — the same phrase Elon Musk used when Tesla was struggling to mass-produce a sedan and nearly went bankrupt.

To make money, a battery factory can’t produce too many defective cells. Ideally the yield, the percentage of usable cells, should be at least 95 percent. Hitting that target is devilishly difficult, involving volatile chemicals and fragile separators layered and packaged into cells with zero margin for error. The machinery doing all this is encased in Plexiglas chambers and overseen by workers dressed in head-to-toe protective gear to prevent contamination.

Advertisement

Dozens of companies are trying to mass-produce solid-state cells, including big carmakers like Toyota and smaller ones like QuantumScape, a Silicon Valley start-up backed by Volkswagen. Mercedes, hedging its bets, is also working with ProLogium, a Taiwanese company.

Nio, a Chinese carmaker, sells a vehicle with what it advertises as a solid-state battery. Analysts say the technology is less advanced than what Factorial is developing, offering fewer advantages in weight and performance. But there is little doubt that Chinese companies are investing heavily in solid state. Nio did not respond to a request for comment.

Every company has its own closely guarded recipes and manufacturing processes. “It’s difficult to say which technology will win,” said Xiaoxi He, a technology analyst at IDTechEx, a research firm.

Partly because solid-state batteries are so difficult to manufacture, many auto executives are skeptical that they will make commercial sense anytime soon. Shares in many solid-state battery start-ups have plunged, and management turmoil is common.

Factorial has insulated itself from the harsh judgments of Wall Street by never selling stock. Its funding comes from private investors including WAVE Equity Partners, a Boston firm, and partners that include the South Korean automaker Hyundai Motor; and Stellantis, which next year plans to test Factorial batteries in Dodge Charger muscle cars. It also has a partnership with LG Chem, a South Korean company that makes battery materials.

Advertisement

Projections of how soon solid-state batteries would be available have proved overly optimistic. Toyota displayed a futuristic prototype in 2020, but the company is still years away from selling a car with a solid-state battery.

Kurt Kelty, a vice president at General Motors in charge of batteries, is among those who will believe it when they see it. “We’re not banking on solid state,” Mr. Kelty said.

In the beginning, Factorial’s prototype assembly line in South Korea had a yield of just 10 percent, meaning 90 percent of its batteries were faulty. Despite her preference for a good night’s sleep, Ms. Huang often had to wake up at 4 a.m. to deal with problems at the factory, which was operating around the clock. She was in South Korea at least once a month.

“There were always issues,” she said. “There was a point, I was like, I don’t even know if we can make it.”

Advertisement

By 2023, Factorial had produced enough cells suitable for an automobile that Mr. Keller, a soft-spoken, amiable man who has worked at Mercedes for 25 years, began thinking about installing them in a car. The cost and the risk of failure were high enough that he sought approval from his bosses. Armed with PowerPoint slides, Mr. Keller went to Ola Källenius, an imposing Swede who is chief executive at Mercedes.

Mr. Källenius’s office is at the top of a glass and steel high-rise in the middle of a sprawling manufacturing and development complex beside the Neckar River in Stuttgart.

Mr. Keller argued that road testing would help determine, among other things, whether the batteries would work with air cooling alone. If so, that would eliminate the need for a heavier, more costly liquid-cooled system.

Mr. Källenius signed off on the project, reasoning that a tangible goal would motivate the team and hasten development. He drew an analogy to Formula 1 racing. “If you’re chasing the leader, and suddenly you can see him, you get faster,” Mr. Källenius recalled.

Ms. Huang was a bit surprised when, in late 2023, Mr. Keller told her that Mercedes wanted to put the cells in a working vehicle. “We didn’t realize it was coming so soon, honestly speaking,” she said with a laugh.

Advertisement

But by June 2024, Factorial had managed to produce enough high-quality cells to announce that it had begun delivering them to Mercedes. In November, the factory in South Korea hit 85 percent yield, the best result yet. Ms. Huang and the Korean team celebrated by going out to a barbecue joint.

Mercedes still had to figure out how to package the cells in a way that would protect them from highway dirt and moisture. And it had to integrate the battery pack into a vehicle, connecting it to the car’s control systems.

The Factorial cells had one big drawback that made them hard to install in a car. They expanded when charged and shrank when discharged. In Mr. Keller’s words, they “breathed.”

Mr. Keller turned to engineers on the Mercedes Formula 1 racing team, who are accustomed to quickly solving technical problems. They devised a mechanism that expanded and shrank with the cells, maintaining constant pressure.

By Christmas 2024, a team working at Mercedes’s main research center in Sindelfingen, outside Stuttgart, texted Mr. Keller those two words: “spinning wheels.”

Advertisement

Mr. Keller confessed that he got a little emotional when his team sent him the video of the car. He waited until after Christmas to forward it to Ms. Huang with the same two words.

Several weeks later, the Mercedes engineers took the car with Factorial’s battery, an otherwise standard EQS electric sedan, to a company track for its first road test.

The engineers drove the car slowly at first. They carefully monitored technical data displayed on the dashboard screen.

They drove faster and faster until, by the fourth day, they reached autobahn speeds of 100 miles per hour. The battery didn’t blow up. In theory, it can power the car for 600 miles, more than most conventional cars can travel on a tank of gasoline.

Mr. Keller had been keeping Ms. Huang apprised of the progress, but she was still surprised when, during a meeting on marketing strategy in February, people from the Mercedes communications department mentioned that they had written a news release announcing the achievement.

Advertisement

“Do you want to take a look?” they asked.

She certainly did. The first successful road test with a Factorial battery was an enormously important moment, one they had been anticipating for years. Yet the teams at Mercedes and Factorial did not throw parties to celebrate. They still had work to do.

The next step is to equip a fleet of Mercedes vehicles with batteries, perfect the manufacturing process and do the testing required to begin selling them. That will probably take until 2028, at least. Many experts don’t expect cars with solid-state batteries to be widely available until 2030, at the earliest.

In April, Ms. Huang finally found time to travel to Stuttgart and ride in the car herself.

It was a clear spring day, with greenery sprouting in the German countryside and flowers beginning to bloom. Mercedes employees escorted her to a garage in Sindelfingen, where the automaker also has a large factory complex.

Advertisement

Ms. Huang had seen many photos of the car, but she still felt a thrill when the garage doors opened. It felt “like a long-lost friend,” she said. “Like, ‘Finally I see you!’”

A Mercedes driver took her for a spin on the test track, zooming down an asphalt straightaway then around a banked curve that, Ms. Huang said, felt like a roller coaster.

Inside the car, there was no way to perceive the difference with the Factorial battery compared with a conventional one. “But it’s just so special because it’s with our battery.”

Business

Inside the race to train AI robots how to act human in the real world

Published

on

Inside the race to train AI robots how to act human in the real world

Now that artificial intelligence has mastered almost everything we do online, it needs help learning how we physically move around in the real world.

A growing global army of trainers is helping it escape our computers and enter our living rooms, offices and factories by teaching it how we move.

In an industrial town in southern India, Naveen Kumar, 28, stands at his desk and starts his job for the day: folding hand towels hundreds of times, as precisely as possible.

He doesn’t work at a hotel; he works for a startup that creates physical data used to train AI.

A robot practices for the 100-meter race before the opening ceremony of the World Humanoid Robot Games in Beijing in August.

Advertisement

(Ng Han Guan / Associated Press)

He mounts a GoPro camera to his forehead and follows a regimented list of hand movements to capture exact point-of-view footage of how a human folds.

That day, he had to pick up each towel from a basket on the right side of his desk, using only his right hand, shake the towel straight using both hands, then fold it neatly three times. Then he had to put each folded towel in the left corner of the desk.

If it takes more than a minute or he misses any steps, he has to start over.

Advertisement

His firm, a data labeling company called Objectways, sent 200 towel-folding videos to its client in the United States. The company has more than 2,000 employees; about half of them label sensor data from autonomous cars and robotics, and the rest work on generative AI.

Most of them are engineers, and few are well-practiced in folding towels, so they take turns doing the physical labor.

“Sometimes we have to delete nearly 150 or 200 videos because of silly errors in how we’re folding or placing items,” said Kumar, an engineering graduate who has worked at Objectways for six years.

The carefully choreographed movements are to capture all the nuances of what humans do — arm reaching, fingers gripping, fabric sliding — to fold clothes.

The captured videos are then annotated by Kumar and his team. They draw boxes around the different parts of the video, tag the towels, and label whether the arm moved left or right, and classify each gesture.

Advertisement

Kumar and his colleagues in the town of Karur, which is about 300 miles south of Bengaluru, are an unlikely batch of tutors for the next generation of AI-powered robots.

“Companies are building foundation models fit for the physical world,” said Ulrik Stig Hansen, co-founder of Encord, a data management platform in San Francisco that contracts with Objectways to collect human demonstration data. “There’s this huge resurgence in robotics.”

Encord works with robotics companies such as Jeff Bezos-backed Physical Intelligence and Dyna Robotics.

Tesla, Boston Dynamics and Nvidia are among the leaders in the U.S. in the race to develop the next generation of robots. Tesla already uses its Optimus robots — which seem to be often remotely controlled — for different company events. Google has its own AI models for robotics. OpenAI is beefing up its robotics ambitions.

Nvidia projects the humanoid robot market could reach $38 billion over the next decade.

Advertisement

There are also many lesser-known companies trying to provide the hardware, software and data to make a mass-produced, multitasking humanoid robot a reality.

Robots at Nvidia's booth an an expo in Beijing

Robots are displayed at Nvidia’s booth during the China International Supply Chain Expo in Beijing in July.

(Mahesh Kumar A. / Associated Press)

Large language models that power chatbots such as ChatGPT have mastered using language, images, music, coding and other skills by hoovering up everything online. They use the entire internet to figure out how things are connected and mimic how we do things, such as answering questions and creating photo-realistic videos.

Data on how the physical world works — how much force is required to fold a napkin, for example — is harder to get and translate into something AI can use.

Advertisement

As robotics improves and combines with AI that knows how to move in the physical world, it could bring more robots into the workplace and the home. While many fear this could lead to job losses and unemployment, optimists think advanced robots would free up humans from tedious work, lower labor costs and eventually give people more time to relax or focus on more interesting and important work.

Many companies have entered the fray as shovel sellers in the AI gold rush, seeing an opportunity to gather data for what is being called physical AI.

One group of companies is teaching AI how to act in the real world by having humans guide robots remotely.

Ali Ansari, founder of San Francisco-based Micro1, said emerging robotics data collection increasingly focuses on teleoperations. Humans with controllers make the robot do something like picking up a cup or making tea. The AI is fed videos of successful and failed attempts at doing something and learns to do it.

The remote-control training can happen in the same room as the robots or with the controller in a different country. Encord’s Hansen said that there are warehouses planned in Eastern Europe where large teams of operators will sit with joysticks, guiding robots across the world.

Advertisement

There are more of these, what some have dubbed “arm farms,” popping up as demand increases, said Mohammad Musa, founder of Deepen AI, a data annotation firm headquartered in California.

“Today, a mix of real and synthetic data is being used, gathered from human demonstrations, teleoperation sessions and staged environments,” he said. “Much of this work still occurs outside the West, but automation and simulation are reducing that dependency over time.”

Some have criticized teleoperated humanoids for being more sizzle than substance. They can be impressive when others are controlling them, but still far from fully autonomous.

Ansari’s Micro1 also does something called human data capture. It pays people to wear smart glasses that capture everyday actions. It is doing this in Brazil, Argentina, India, and the United States.

San José-based Figure AI, partnered with real estate giant Brookfield to capture footage from inside 100,000 homes. It will collect data about human movement to teach humanoid robots how to move in human spaces. The company said it will spend much of the $1 billion it raised to collect first-person human data.

Advertisement

Meta-backed Scale AI, has collected 100,000 hours of similar training footage for robotics through its prototype laboratory set up in San Francisco.

Still, training bots isn’t always easy.

Twenty-year-old Dev Mandal created a company in Bengaluru, hoping to cash in on the need for physical data to train AI. He offered India’s inexpensive labor to capture movements. After advertising his services, he got requests to help train a robotic arm to cook food as well as a robot to plug and unplug cables in data centers.

But he had to give up the business, as potential clients needed the physical movement data collected in a very specific manner, making it tougher for him to make money, even with India’s inexpensive labor. Clients wanted an exact robot arm, for example, using a certain kind of table with purple lights to be used.

“Everything, down to the color of the table, had to be specified by them,” he said. “And they said that this has to be the exact color.”

Advertisement

Still, there’s lots of work for the towel folders of Karur.

Their boss, Objectways founder Ravi Shankar, says that in recent months, his firm has captured and annotated footage of robotic arms folding cardboard boxes and T-shirts and picking out certain colored objects on a table.

It recently started annotating videos from more advanced humanoid robots, helping train them to sort and fold a mix of towels and clothes, folding them and placing them in different corners of the table. His team had to annotate 15,000 videos of the robots doing the jobs.

“Sometimes the robot’s arms throw the clothes and won’t fold properly. Sometimes it scatters the stack,” but the robots are learning quickly said Kavin, 27, an Objectways employee who goes by one name. “In five or 10 years, they’ll be able to do all the jobs and there will be none left for us.”

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

‘Our stomping ground’: Demolition of historic Valley Plaza mall begins

Published

on

‘Our stomping ground’: Demolition of historic Valley Plaza mall begins

David Udoff fondly remembers how his mother would drive him and his brother to Valley Plaza in her avocado Dodge Dart.

The family would shop at the once-vibrant and bustling selection of retail businesses. They would visit the Sears, a bakery and the animatronic fortune-telling machine in front of the drugstore. Then they would lunch on Salisbury steak and Jell-O platters at Schaber’s Cafeteria.

“The good old Valley days,” the 67-year-old former North Hollywood and Toluca Lake resident said of his family outings in the 1960s.

Now, swaths of the historic San Fernando Valley mall are being demolished after years of complaints from neighbors that the collection of vacant buildings and parking lots had fallen into disrepair.

Advertisement

The Valley Plaza, which opened in 1951, was among the first and largest open-air shopping malls on the West Coast and a major center of commerce.

In its heyday, the sprawling complex of suburban buildings and modernist high-rises drew crowds and even a visit from John F. Kennedy during his 1960 presidential campaign.

The demolition, which began this week, came after a panel of Los Angeles city commissioners appointed by Mayor Karen Bass voted in August to declare much of the site a public nuisance.

The vote greenlighted the destruction of six buildings in the plaza. Some structures deemed historic, including the iconic 12-story, 165-foot-tall tower — among the first skyscrapers built in L.A. — will be spared.

“It’s crazy that it’s happening. It has been an eyesore in the Valley for so long,” said Stuart Waldman, president of the Valley Industry and Commerce Assn. “We’re excited we are going to have something built there that will be usable.”

Advertisement

The site had drawn squatters, and nearby homeowners voiced concerns about crime and potential fires.

Waldman, who lives nearby, said watching the mall’s deterioration “has been sad.”

He said he expects the property will be turned into a mixed-use commercial and residential space, as was done in the development of NoHo West, which repurposed the site of the former Laurel Plaza mall and a Macy’s department store.

But Waldman warned it could be an uphill battle.

“It’s hard to build in L.A. It is expensive, and the city makes it difficult,” Waldman said. “I hope someone’s going to take a chance. It’s an opportunity to help the community while also making a profit.”

Advertisement

The influential regional shopping center was an early example of how building entrances were reoriented to face large rear parking lots instead of streets and sidewalks, emphasizing vehicle access from newly built freeways, according to the Los Angeles Conservancy.

“This was our stomping ground,” Jack McGrath, a former president of the Studio City Chamber of Commerce, said in a video series on Valley Plaza published by the news outlet Patch in 2013.

McGrath, in the video, described how thousands of people crowded into the mall’s sprawling parking lot to see Kennedy speak.

“This man was absolutely handsome, and more importantly, he had the best-looking tan I’ve ever seen on a man or a politician,” McGrath said. “The women were goofy, looking at this fellow.”

The shopping center’s decline began with the rise of big-box retail, as well as competition from other newer malls in Burbank and Sherman Oaks. Economic strife in the 1990s and damage from the 1994 Northridge earthquake also dealt blows, pushing some businesses to permanently close.

Advertisement

In 2000, about 30% of the mall’s storefronts were vacant, and in recent years film and television producers have used the site as a grimy, boarded-up backdrop — rather than an iconic institution once showcased in the music video for Randy Newman’s 1983 anthem, “I Love L.A.”

On Thursday, piles of dirt, concrete shards and other debris surrounded the property, with a bulldozer watching over.

Fred Gaines, an attorney for Charles Co., the real estate and development firm that owns the property, and which engaged the demolition contractor, said there was not yet a specific redevelopment plan for the site. He said future development would depend on how the city handles homelessness encampments in the area.

“We certainly will look to the city to fix this problem in the neighborhood and allow this to be a viable development site,” Gaines said.

Charles Co. has had its own problems in recent years, as one of the firm’s owners became embroiled in a major L.A. corruption case. Co-owner Arman Gabaee was sentenced in 2022 to four years in federal prison after making payments to a county official in return for leases and nonpublic information.

Advertisement

Udoff, the former Valley resident who currently lives in South Florida, said he tried to move back to L.A. a few years ago, but housing was too expensive. As prices rise in the Miami-area suburb where he lives, he is looking to resettle in a more affordable area in California or Oregon.

In August, he wrote a letter to Bass’ office urging the city to help steer development of the property into a cultural center or subsidized affordable housing.

“How things change,” Udoff said. “They should make it into something really nice.”

Times staff photographer Eric Thayer contributed to this report.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Business

Commentary: Meme stocks are still with us, offering new temptations for novice and unwary investors

Published

on

Commentary: Meme stocks are still with us, offering new temptations for novice and unwary investors

If you blinked you may have missed this, but the stock of Beyond Meat, the purveyor of meatless burger patties, had a spectacular run a few days ago.

The stock had surged by more than 1,400% in the four days through Oct. 22, when shares hit an intraday peak of $7.69, up from a low of 50 cents on Oct. 16.

Given that this El Segundo-based company has never had a profitable year since its 2019 initial public stock offering, the run-up was apparently triggered by the online touting of the stock by a trader named Demitri Semenikhin, and the shares have since settled back to $1.65 (in intraday trading Thursday), the action has market observers asking if “meme stocks” are back.

The answer is no — because they’ve never gone away.

I’ve been seeing signs of a ‘flight to crap’ recently.

— Market strategist Steve Sosnick

Advertisement

The appetite of small retail investors for what beckon as big scores in unloved stocks has remained strong since the meme stock trade attracted attention during the pandemic year 2021.

The “meme” sobriquet points to the most notable factor driving the swift run-up and rapid downfall of these stocks: They feed on momentum generated by internet touts, not sober assessments of business prospects and financial results. Indeed, the quintessential meme stock has little in the way of profits to catch the eye of serious investors.

Beyond Meat is just the latest company to enjoy sudden meme-dom, followed by an equally sudden dose of reality. In Beyond’s case, the surge came in the wake of its Oct. 13 announcement of the results of a debt swap deal that will massively dilute the stake of shareholders. Short sellers piled into the stock, setting up the momentary rebound typical of meme stocks.

Advertisement

Over the last few months, meme stock traders have piled into, and then out of, shares in Krispy Kreme, GoPro, Kohl’s and other companies that are disdained as underperformers by the Wall Street establishment, only to be taken up by an internet-fueled army of small investors. But those investors seldom have the resources to survive the almost inevitable snapback.

For those who may not recall the meme stock frenzy of 2020-21, here’s a trip down memory lane.

The emblematic meme stock of 2021 was GameStop, a spavined mall-based video game retailer that was struggling through the transformation of its franchise from brick-and-mortar stores to online commerce. The company had lost a combined $1.36 billion from 2018 through 2020, and its future looked bleak.

Then, as if out of nowhere, the stock got noticed by online investment promoters, who urged followers to buy GameStop shares to hurt Wall Street short sellers, who were betting that the stock would keep falling.

The shares climbed relentlessly through January 2021, soaring from a low of $12.16 in mid-December to an intraday high of about $483 on Jan. 28. It closed that day at $193.60, delivering a prompt lesson that investing in stocks based on claims touted online is a mug’s game.

Advertisement

All this action was the product of several confluent factors. One was the pandemic and its attendant lockdowns, which prompted people deprived of social contacts and customary entertainment pursuits to fill their empty hours day-trading stocks. Internet influencers goaded their followers into trading in concert with the goal of putting it to the Man — i.e., rich Wall Street hedge fund managers who were shorting unloved stocks and deserved to be taken down a peg.

GameStop stock wasn’t the first issue to get memed. In 2020, investors piled into Hertz, even though it had been forced to seek bankruptcy protection after the COVID-19 outbreak cratered the rental car market,. Bloomberg even declared 2020 “the year of the meme stock.” (Hertz abandoned a plan to sell new shares into the frenzy after regulators raised questions about it.)

But it was GameStop that made meme stock trading into, well, a meme. GameStop displayed all the elements that drove the meme frenzy, the Securities and Exchange Commission ultimately reported: “(1) large price moves, (2) large volume changes, (3) large short interest, (4) frequent Reddit mentions, and (4) significant coverage in the mainstream media.”

A key element of the meme market was an influx of young individual investors enthralled by get-rich-quick trading come-ons. Robinhood, an online brokerage that cut commissions to zero and enticed new customers with an app that made stock trading resemble playing a video game, disclosed that “its average customer is 31 years old and has a median account balance of $240,” the SEC reported.

One might have expected that as these factors ebbed, the meme stock frenzy would evaporate. It did, somewhat, but not nearly as much as Wall Street pros expected. Indeed, as GameStop rose, the buyers gleefully declared victory over the shorts, fueling the search for more meme-able stocks. Some investors made the theater operator AMC Entertainment a meme stock. Some joined new crazes, such as cryptocurrencies, nonfungible tokens and other assets more or less immune from the traditional investment fundamentals such as revenues and profits and business plans.

Advertisement

Nothing was especially new about individual stocks having a moment in the sun before falling back into obscurity, but the frenzy of early 2021 turned meme stocks into an assiduously followed investment category all its own. Financial pages and tout sheets ran wrap-ups of meme action every year. GameStop and AMC were perennial members of this club, supplemented by newcomers.

In 2022, the star was the bankruptcy-bound retailer Bed Bath & Beyond, which staged a nine-day rally that summer culminated in a one-day 40% surge Aug. 8 on extraordinary volume of 120.5 million shares. (Its Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing finally arrived in April 2023.)

To define the category, market analysts generally rely on the factors mentioned by the SEC in its reference to GameStop. But not all meme stocks were similarly obscure before having their day. One that has recently landed on meme stock rosters is Tesla: “Wildly overvalued compared to rival automakers, its shareholders are betting that they can sell their holdings to a greater fool in the near future,” economist J. Bradford Delong of UC Berkeley wrote in May 2024.

Earlier this year, Yale professor Jeff Sonnenfeld polled the attendees of his most recent CEO conference on the question: “Compared to NVIDIA’s 40x P/E forward multiple and Apple’s 30x multiple, has Tesla at 160x become the biggest meme stock in modern financial market history?”

Of the 100 participants, 83 voted “yes.”

Advertisement

Meme investors have acquired new tools to follow and invest in meme targets. Bloomberg and UBS have developed meme stock indexes, and in October a meme stock exchange-traded fund — a mutual fund that trades like a stock — was launched by the investment house Roundhill.

One can hardly fault Roundhill’s warning of the risks of meme investing: “Meme Stocks are characterized by high trading volumes and significant price volatility, often driven by social media trends and investor interest,” it advises potential investors. “Meme Stocks often trade untethered from … fundamentals, driven instead by speculative fervor and viral momentum.”

“Volatility” is the mot juste for this ETF: Despite notching a 17% gain over four days shortly after its introduction, MEME is currently down more than 23% from its Oct. 14 peak.

Meme-stock buying is often triggered or sustained by a nugget of bull-market sentiment. The Beyond Meat narrative included its Oct. 21 announcement of a deal with Walmart that will place its products in more than 2,000 stores. But whether that’s enough to overcome the company’s evident financial headwinds remains questionable.

For Opendoor Technologies, a money-losing residential real estate broker that quintupled in price during a few weeks this summer and nearly doubled in price on a single trading day in September, the story was that lower interest rates would spur more housing transactions.

Advertisement

Opendoor Chairman Keith Rabois bristled at a CNBC anchor’s description of the company as a meme stock during an interview in September, arguing that investors have begun to appreciate its “potential upside.” Beyond Meat didn’t respond to my request for comment on its share price. (Opendoor was the Roundhill ETF’s largest holding when the ETF was launched; more recently, the largest holding has been Beyond Meat.)

The economic fundamentals underlying the overall stock market don’t seem to have much to do with meme stock rallies. The original craze developed when interest rates were close to zero, making stocks look attractive compared with fixed income investments; the current craze has unfolded during a period of high interest rates and economic uncertainty — though that hasn’t stopped the major stock indexes from notching record highs lately.

Small investors would be well advised to keep in mind that the meme market could be the very definition of a risky place to trade. Meme investors tend to crowd into a stock after it has already begun its rapid march upward — and sometimes when that trend is about to reverse.

GameStop hasn’t fallen back to its pre-frenzy price in the low double digits, but with its current price below $23, investors who bought at its January 2021 peak have lost about 80% of their money. (The company staged a 4-to-1 stock split in July 2022, so one must multiply its current price by four to replicate its 2021 prices.)

The smart money says that the meme trade is with us to stay. There’s just too much uninformed, misinformed and self-interested commentary washing about in the investment sphere, too easily accessed by unwary and novice investors. Most of the advice being pushed on investors today isn’t much good, and what can be gleaned from promoters on Reddit even worse. The term “buyer beware” has never been so important.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending