Business
$1-million milestone: Orange County median home price hits seven figures
The median dwelling worth in Orange County reached $1 million final month, turning into the primary Southern California county to ever hit that dear mark and underscoring simply how costly the area has develop into.
The brink was crossed when the Orange County median gross sales worth for brand new and present homes, condos and townhomes rose from $985,000 in February to $1,020,000 in March, in response to information launched this week by researcher DQNews. It constitutes a 22% bounce in median worth from a yr prior.
Million-dollar properties unfold quickly all through Southern California throughout the pandemic, turning into commonplace in communities as soon as considered comparatively reasonably priced like Highland Park and West Adams in Los Angeles County. The median worth in Los Angeles County rose to $840,000 in March, up 12% from a yr earlier.
The Orange County milestone marks a momentous rise in wealth, a minimum of on paper, for native owners. But it surely comes as a regionwide lack of reasonably priced housing has pushed folks into homelessness and induced others to go away the state seeking shelter they will afford.
In response to a latest survey from the Public Coverage Institute of California, 64% of California adults view housing affordability as an enormous downside, with greater than half of adults saying they’re involved they received’t find the money for to pay their lease or mortgage.
The $1-million dwelling increase has been pushed by a number of components. An intense scarcity of housing has sparked brutal bidding wars that push costs far above asking. Traders are additionally gobbling up extra properties to flip or lease out, accounting for roughly 1 / 4 of Southern California dwelling gross sales.
One other main purpose for the swift rise in $1-million properties is the truth that extra folks can afford such a excessive worth.
Rising incomes, a booming inventory market and mortgage rates of interest that fell beneath 3% throughout the pandemic opened up the $1-million risk to a wider pool of patrons.
If debtors put 20% down and had minimal money owed, that they had an excellent shot at getting a mortgage for a $1-million home in the event that they made a minimum of $150,000 yearly.
In Orange County, dwelling to many high-paying know-how, healthcare and finance jobs, the median family earnings in 2020 was $94,441, and practically 30% of households made a minimum of $150,000, in response to a Beacon Economics evaluation of U.S. census information.
Although dwelling costs have been decrease throughout the early 2000s housing bubble, extra Orange County residents can afford a purchase order at the moment, a mirrored image of rising incomes and decrease mortgage charges.
Again within the second quarter of 2006, the median worth of an present single household home in Orange County was within the $700,000s — a worth solely 10% of households within the county might afford, in response to the California Assn. of Realtors.
By the fourth quarter of 2021, the median worth of an present single household home had already surpassed $1 million, in response to the affiliation’s calculations, and 17% of Orange County households might afford it.
The decadelong run-up in dwelling values means many householders are sitting on piles of fairness, enabling them to promote at a revenue and purchase a way more costly home even when their incomes didn’t rise.
“It type of feeds again onto itself,” mentioned Christopher Thornberg, founding associate with Beacon Economics. “Fairness will get traded into fairness.”
Debbie Felix, an agent with Seven Gables Actual Property, mentioned many mother and father are additionally gifting their grownup kids down funds.
Only a few years in the past, she mentioned, a three-bedroom home in Fountain Valley went for about $900,000, but it surely’s now frequent for such “starter properties” to go for above $1 million.
She is on the brink of listing a three-bedroom, 1,633-square-foot home in Fountain Valley at practically $1.15 million.
“It’s loopy,” she mentioned. “That home will in all probability go $100,000 over asking.”
Whether or not dwelling costs in Orange County and elsewhere surge from right here is an open query.
Mortgage rates of interest are rising quickly, making the $1-million dwelling a more durable purchase than a number of months in the past.
March information from DQNews signify closed gross sales, which means many patrons opened escrow and locked of their charges in February. Charges have been rising then however have been nonetheless greater than 1 proportion level beneath at the moment.
The common price on a 30-year fastened mortgage hit 5.11% this week, up from 3.55% to start with of February, in response to Freddie Mac. In November, charges have been below 3%.
Assuming a purchaser put down 20% to purchase a $1-million home, the month-to-month mortgage fee — together with property tax and insurance coverage — could be $4,840 if the rate of interest was 3.55%, the common at first of February.
At this week’s common mortgage price of 5.11%, that month-to-month fee could be $5,574 — a rise of $734 a month, in response to a Redfin mortgage calculator.
The change will knock some folks out of the $1-million worth level, and a number of actual property consultants say they anticipate dwelling costs throughout the market to rise at smaller increments now that borrowing prices are larger.
However analysts mentioned they don’t anticipate costs to fall, citing rising incomes, low stock and the hesitancy for owners to promote for lower than their neighbors did.
Thornberg mentioned Orange County and the remainder of Southern California are comparatively cheap in contrast with different main metropolises all over the world. Given the world is dwelling to main industries, leisure and exquisite climate, dwelling costs “are going to proceed to go up.”
“It’s not a bubble,” Thornberg mentioned. “Everybody has bought to get used to it.”
Business
As Delta Reports Profits, Airlines Are Optimistic About 2025
This year just got started, but it is already shaping up nicely for U.S. airlines.
After several setbacks, the industry ended 2024 in a fairly strong position because of healthy demand for tickets and the ability of several airlines to control costs and raise fares, experts said. Barring any big problems, airlines — especially the largest ones — should enjoy a great year, analysts said.
“I think it’s going to be pretty blue skies,” said Tom Fitzgerald, an airline industry analyst for the investment bank TD Cowen.
In recent weeks, many major airlines upgraded forecasts for the all-important last three months of the year. And on Friday, Delta Air Lines said it collected more than $15.5 billion in revenue in the fourth quarter of 2024, a record.
“As we move into 2025, we expect strong demand for travel to continue,” Delta’s chief executive, Ed Bastian, said in a statement. That put the airline on track to “deliver the best financial year in Delta’s 100-year history,” he said.
The airline also beat analysts’ profit estimates and said it expected earnings per share, a measure of profitability, to rise more than 10 percent this year.
Delta’s upbeat report offers a preview of what are expected to be similarly rosy updates from other carriers that will report earnings in the next few weeks. That should come as welcome news to an industry that has been stifled by various challenges even as demand for travel has rocketed back after the pandemic.
“For the last five years, it’s felt like every bird in the sky was a black swan,” said Ravi Shanker, an analyst focused on airlines at Morgan Stanley. “But it appears that this industry does have its ducks in a row.”
That is, of course, if everything goes according to plan, which it rarely does. Geopolitics, terrorist attacks, air safety problems and, perhaps most important, an economic downturn could tank demand for travel. Rising costs, particularly for jet fuel, could erode profits. Or the industry could face problems like a supply chain disruption that limits availability of new planes or makes it harder to repair older ones.
Early last year, a panel blew off a Boeing 737 Max during an Alaska Airlines flight, resurfacing concerns about the safety of the manufacturer’s planes, which are used on most flights operated by U.S. airlines, according to Cirium, an aviation data firm.
The incident forced Boeing to slow production and delay deliveries of jets. That disrupted the plans of some airlines that had hoped to carry more passengers. And there was little airlines could do to adjust because the world’s largest jet manufacturer, Airbus, didn’t have the capacity to pick up the slack — both it and Boeing have long order backlogs. In addition, some Airbus planes were afflicted by an engine problem that has forced carriers to pull the jets out of service for inspections.
There was other tumult, too. Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy. A brief technology outage wreaked havoc on many airlines, disrupting travel and resulting in thousands of canceled flights in the heart of the busy summer season. And during the summer, smaller airlines flooded popular domestic routes with seats, squeezing profits during what is normally the most lucrative time of year.
But the industry’s financial position started improving when airlines reduced the number of flights and seats. While that was bad for travelers, it lifted fares and profits for airlines.
“You’re in a demand-over-supply imbalance, which gives the industry pricing power,” said Andrew Didora, an analyst at the Bank of America.
At the same time, airlines have been trying to improve their businesses. American Airlines overhauled a sales strategy that had frustrated corporate customers, helping it win back some travelers. Southwest Airlines made changes aimed at lowering costs and increasing profits after a push by the hedge fund Elliott Management. And JetBlue Airways unveiled a strategy with similar aims, after a less contentious battle with the investor Carl C. Icahn.
Those improvements and industry trends, along with the stabilization of fuel, labor and other costs, have created the conditions for what could be a banner 2025. “All of this is the best setup we’ve had in decades,” Mr. Shanker said.
That won’t materialize right away, though. Travel demand tends to be subdued in the winter. But business trips pick up somewhat, driven by events like this week’s Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
The positive outlook for 2025 is probably strongest for the largest U.S. airlines — Delta, United and American. All three are well positioned to take advantage of buoyant trends, including steadily rebounding business travel and customers who are eager to spend more on better seats and international flights.
But some smaller airlines may do well, too. JetBlue, Alaska Airlines and others have been adding more premium seats, which should help lift profits.
While he is optimistic overall, Mr. Shanker acknowledged that the industry was vulnerable to a host of potential problems.
“I mean, this time last year you were talking about doors falling off planes,” he said. “So who knows what might happen.”
Business
Insurance commissioner issues moratorium on home policy cancellations in fire zones
California Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara has issued a moratorium that bars insurers from canceling or non-renewing home policies in the Pacific Palisades and the San Gabriel Valley’s Eaton fire zones.
The moratorium, issued Thursday, protects homeowners living within the perimeter of the fire and in adjoining ZIP codes from losing their policies for one year, starting from when Gov. Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on Wednesday.
The moratoriums, provided for under state law, are typically issued after large fires and apply to all policyholders regardless of whether they have suffered a loss.
Lara also urged insurers to pause for six months any pending non-renewals or cancellations that were issued up to 90 days before Jan. 7 that were to take effect after the start of the fires — something he does not have authority to prohibit.
“I call upon all property insurance companies to halt these non-renewals and cancellations and provide essential stability for our communities, allowing consumers to focus on what’s important at the moment — their safety and recovery,” said Lara on Friday during a press conference in downtown Los Angeles.
Insurance companies in California have wide latitude to not renew home policies after they expire, though they must provide at least 75 days’ notice. However, policies in force can be canceled only for reasons such as non-payment and fraud.
Insurers have dropped hundreds of thousands of policyholders across California in recent years citing the increasing risk and severity of wind-driven wildfires attributed to climate change. The insurance department said residents living in fire zones can be subject to sudden non-renewals, prompting the need for the moratoriums.
In addition, Lara asked insurers to extend to policyholders affected by the fires time to pay their premiums that go beyond the existing 60-day grace period that is mandatory under state law.
It’s not clear how many homeowners in Pacific Palisades and elsewhere might not have had coverage, but many homeowners reported that insurers had not renewed their policies before the disaster struck. State Farm last year told the Department of Insurance it would not renew 1,626 policies in Pacific Palisades when they expired, starting last July.
Residents can visit the Department of Insurance website at insurance.ca.gov to see if their ZIP codes are included in the moratorium. They can also contact the department at (800) 927-4357 or via chat or email if they think their insurer is in violation of the law.
The Pacific Palisades fire, the most destructive fire in Los Angeles history, as of Friday morning had grown to more than 20,000 acres, burning more than 5,000 homes, businesses and other buildings. It was 6% contained.
The Eaton fire, which has burned many structures in Altadena and Pasadena, has spread to nearly 14,000 acres and was 3% contained as of early Friday. Ten people have died in the fires.
Business
In Los Angeles, Hotels Become a Refuge for Fire Evacuees
The lobby of Shutters on the Beach, the luxury oceanfront hotel in Santa Monica that is usually abuzz with tourists and entertainment professionals, had by Thursday transformed into a refuge for Los Angeles residents displaced by the raging wildfires that have ripped through thousands of acres and leveled entire neighborhoods to ash.
In the middle of one table sat something that has probably never been in the lobby of Shutters before: a portable plastic goldfish tank. “It’s my daughter’s,” said Kevin Fossee, 48. Mr. Fossee and his wife, Olivia Barth, 45, had evacuated to the hotel on Tuesday evening shortly after the fire in the Los Angeles Pacific Palisades area flared up near their home in Malibu.
Suddenly, an evacuation alert came in. Every phone in the lobby wailed at once, scaring young children who began to cry inconsolably. People put away their phones a second later when they realized it was a false alarm.
Similar scenes have been unfolding across other Los Angeles hotels as the fires spread and the number of people under evacuation orders soars above 100,000. IHG, which includes the Intercontinental, Regent and Holiday Inn chains, said 19 of its hotels across the Los Angeles and Pasadena areas were accommodating evacuees.
The Palisades fire, which has been raging since Tuesday and has become the most destructive in the history of Los Angeles, struck neighborhoods filled with mansions owned by the wealthy, as well as the homes of middle-class families who have owned them for generations. Now they all need places to stay.
Many evacuees turned to a Palisades WhatsApp group that in just a few days has grown from a few hundred to over 1,000 members. Photos, news, tips on where to evacuate, hotel discount codes and pet policies were being posted with increasing rapidity as the fires spread.
At the midcentury modern Beverly Hilton hotel, which looms over the lawns and gardens of Beverly Hills, seven miles and a world away from the ash-strewed Pacific Palisades, parking ran out on Wednesday as evacuees piled in. Guests had to park in another lot a mile south and take a shuttle back.
In the lobby of the hotel, which regularly hosts glamorous events like the recent Golden Globe Awards, guests in workout clothes wrestled with children, pets and hastily packed roll-aboards.
Many of the guests were already familiar with each other from their neighborhoods, and there was a resigned intimacy as they traded stories. “You can tell right away if someone is a fire evacuee by whether they are wearing sweats or have a dog with them,” said Sasha Young, 34, a photographer. “Everyone I’ve spoken with says the same thing: We didn’t take enough.”
The Hotel June, a boutique hotel with a 1950s hipster vibe a mile north of Los Angeles International Airport, was offering evacuees rooms for $125 per night.
“We were heading home to the Palisades from the airport when we found out about the evacuations,” said Julia Morandi, 73, a retired science educator who lives in the Palisades Highlands neighborhood. “When we checked in, they could see we were stressed, so the manager gave us drinks tickets and told us, ‘We take care of our neighbors.’”
Hotels are also assisting tourists caught up in the chaos, helping them make arrangements to fly home (as of Friday, the airport was operating normally) and waiving cancellation fees. A spokeswoman for Shutters said its guests included domestic and international tourists, but on Thursday, few could be spotted among the displaced Angelenos. The heated outdoor pool that overlooks the ocean and is usually surrounded by sunbathers was completely deserted because of the dangerous air quality.
“I think I’m one of the only tourists here,” said Pavel Francouz, 34, a hockey scout who came to Los Angeles from the Czech Republic for a meeting on Tuesday before the fires ignited.
“It’s weird to be a tourist,” he said, describing the eerily empty beaches and the hotel lobby packed with crying children, families, dogs and suitcases. “I can’t imagine what it would feel like to be these people,” he said, adding, “I’m ready to go home.”
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