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Why It’s Hard to Run Venezuela

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Why It’s Hard to Run Venezuela

Under Nicolás Maduro, a status quo prevailed among Venezuela’s powerful armed factions: Paramilitary cells enforced the government’s priorities. Ever-expanding crime syndicates, deep-pocketed prison gangs and combat-tested Colombian rebels often colluded with local officials or the federal government.

But with Mr. Maduro gone, and allies and opponents competing to fill the power vacuum at Venezuela’s center, there are many forces — or breakaway groups within them — that could frustrate the ambitions of whoever governs the country.

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Photos by Juan Barreto/Agence France-Presse and Adriana Loureiro Fernandez/The New York Times

For now, Delcy Rodríguez, a Maduro ally who led the stabilization of Venezuela’s economy after a harrowing crash, has emerged as the Trump administration’s choice to lead the country. Ms. Rodríguez, the administration determined, has a firmer grip than the political opposition on Venezuela’s many security forces and intelligence agencies, and their paramilitary offshoots.

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But the transition from Mr. Maduro’s authoritarian rule is just starting. The huge investments Venezuela will need to revive its vital oil industry, and the broader economy, require at least a semblance of stability.

That means the central government has to assert authority over areas of the country where well-armed crime syndicates or paramilitary agents hold sway, choking off their revenue streams from illegal activities, including extortion, drug smuggling and kidnapping. But that could upset the power dynamics Mr. Maduro used to cement control.

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Rebecca Hanson, a sociologist at the University of Florida and an expert on Venezuela’s security landscape, said that suddenly reducing the access to illicit markets and extortion rackets that criminal groups now enjoy is a recipe for turmoil.

“That invariably results in the perfect cocktail of increased conflict, both between criminal armed groups, and between criminal groups and the state,” Ms. Hanson said.

The new dynamic does not mean a full-blown civil war is on the horizon, security experts said. But pockets of civil strife could materialize under different circumstances. These include pushback from factions in the armed forces against Venezuela’s submission to the Trump administration, or a purge of security forces and intelligence agencies by an opposition-led government, potentially flooding the country with thousands of armed individuals with an ax to grind.

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But there are more immediate security challenges. One involves the colectivos, the armed civilian cells that function as paramilitary enforcers for the government.

These groups generally operate in cities where they control small but strategically important swaths of territory. In Caracas, they are based in strongholds like 23 de Enero, an area of decaying modernist apartment blocks under a mile from the Miraflores presidential palace.

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What colectivos look like in the streets of Caracas

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Armed members of a colectivo inspect the trunk of a car on Jan. 3, 2026. Photo by Jesús Vargas/Getty Images

Some colectivos there are more ideologically aligned with Chavismo, the socialist-inspired movement forged by Hugo Chávez. Others hew to their own mercenary ideals, relying on government payouts and small-scale criminal activities to stay afloat.

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Some colectivos have been seen on the streets of Caracas since Mr. Maduro’s capture. Valentín Santana, the leader of one of the oldest colectivos, La Piedrita, suggested that unnamed elements within the government had been colluding with the United States prior to Mr. Maduro’s capture, revealing fissures within Venezuela’s power structures.

“They betrayed our president, Nicolás Maduro, but history will make them pay,” Mr. Santana said in a video made after Mr. Maduro’s capture.

Should even a small number of individuals from such groups mount armed challenges to the established order, Caracas offers multiple options for refuge with its labyrinthine squatter settlements, sprawling apartment blocks, abandoned high-rises and hilly topography.

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The Coche neighborhood in El Valle in Caracas. Leonardo Fernández Viloria/Reuters

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Outside Caracas, security challenges also abound. Unlike the colectivos, some armed groups in rural areas are already battle-tested against well-trained adversaries. These include Colombian guerrillas with thousands in their ranks, often operating from Venezuelan territory.

These rebel groups, the National Liberation Army, or E.L.N., and splinter cells from the demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, no longer have realistic chances of seizing control of a central government.

But their numbers are resurging as they vie for control over drug smuggling routes and extortion rackets, while still relying on other illicit revenue streams like abducting oil workers.

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Venezuela’s mineral deposits are another potential source of instability, notably in the gold-rich state of Bolívar. Las Claritas Sindicato, one of the most powerful criminal groups engaged in illegal mining, is deeply rooted there.

Las Claritas, like similar groups, applies taxes on miners and traders, and exerts strict control over outposts where it imposes its own laws and punishments for scofflaws, according to InSight Crime, a research group focused on organized crime.

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Venezuela’s leadership faces not only challenges from illegal armed groups, but also potential defiance from within governing circles.

At the moment, there is a fragile alliance between civilian factions, led by Ms. Rodríguez and her brother, Jorge Rodríguez, the head of the National Assembly; and military factions led by Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López.

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In a photo provided by the Venezuelan government, Venezuelan leaders walk together at the National Assembly, in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. Marcelo Garcia/Miraflores Palace/Handout via Reuters

But an open rupture between these camps over a contentious issue like U.S. meddling in Venezuela could open up other chances for conflict, warned Ms. Hanson, the sociologist.

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Security forces and intelligence agencies are more closely aligned with the military faction, potentially threatening the stability of a civilian government whether it is led by a Chavista, like Ms. Rodríguez, or an opposition leader, like Maria Corina Machado, the recipient of last year’s Nobel Peace Prize.

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Ukraine peace talks on ‘situational pause’ as Middle East conflict intensifies: Kremlin

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Ukraine peace talks on ‘situational pause’ as Middle East conflict intensifies: Kremlin

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Ukraine peace talks are on a “situational pause” as the Middle East conflict intensifies, the Kremlin said Thursday, even as Kyiv signaled negotiations could resume as soon as this weekend.

Following reports in Russian media that the Kremlin had paused talks on Ukraine and that the Middle East conflict could push Kyiv toward compromise, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed the pause.

“This is a situational pause, for obvious reasons,” Peskov told reporters when asked about the report, according to Reuters.

Peskov added that as soon as “our American partners” could refocus on the Ukraine conflict, Moscow hopes the pause will end and new talks can begin, the outlet reported.

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UKRAINE TO MEET TRUMP ENVOYS AHEAD OF HIGH-STAKES GENEVA TALKS WITH RUSSIA AS WAR ENTERS FIFTH YEAR

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during a briefing in Kyiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026. (Danylo Antoniuk/AP)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video posted on X that Kyiv has received signals from the U.S. that it is ready to resume talks aimed at ending the war.

“There has been a pause in the talks, and it is time to resume them,” he said. “We are doing everything to ensure that the negotiations are genuinely substantive.”

Zelenskyy added that a Ukrainian negotiating team is already on its way to the U.S. and is expected to hold meetings Saturday.

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RUSSIA, UKRAINE TO DISCUSS TERRITORY AS TRUMP SAYS BOTH SIDES ‘WANT TO MAKE A DEAL’

Firefighters put out the fire in the ruins of an apartment building following Russia’s missile attack in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Saturday, March 7, 2026. (AP Photo/Andrii Marienko)

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump said the “hatred” between Russia and Ukraine was getting in the way of reaching a peace deal.

Speaking at the Shield of the Americas Summit in Doral, Florida, Trump said the “hatred between Putin and his counterpart is so great.”

“It’s so great that, you know, Ukraine, Russia, you’d think there would be a little bit of camaraderie, [but] there’s not. And the hatred is so great. It’s very hard for them to get there. It’s very, very hard to get there. So we’ll see what happens,” Trump said. “But we’ve been close a lot of times and one or the other would back out.”

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UKRAINE’S ZELENSKYY: RUSSIA TRYING ‘TO PLAY’ GAME WITH TRUMP, STALL PEACE TALKS

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shake hands at a news conference following a meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club on December 28, 2025 in Palm Beach, Florida. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

Trump’s comments came after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in January that Russia was losing between 20,000 and 25,000 troops each month in its war against Ukraine.

The pause in talks comes as Ukraine is increasingly being drawn into the wider Middle East conflict.

With the conflict in Iran now in its third week, Ukraine is providing technology and battlefield-tested tactics to counter Iranian drone attacks.

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U.S. and Gulf partners have requested Ukrainian assistance, with Kyiv signaling it is prepared to share both systems and personnel to help defend against Iranian aerial threats.

Fox News Digital’s Greg Norman-Diamond and Morgan Phillips contributed to this report, along with Reuters.

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‘Nobody can blackmail us’: Leaders excoriate Orbán’s veto

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‘Nobody can blackmail us’: Leaders excoriate Orbán’s veto

Fury over Viktor Orbán’s decision to veto the European Union’s €90 billion loan for Ukraine burst into the open on Thursday as leaders castigated, one by one, in the harshest terms yet, the “unacceptable” behaviour of the Hungarian prime minister.

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The condemnation was led by António Costa, the usually mild-mannered president of the European Council, whose authority is being directly challenged by Orbán’s disruption.

“The leaders took the floor to condemn the attitude from Viktor Orbán, to remember that a deal is a deal and all the leaders need to honour that word,” Costa said at the end of the summit, venting months of frustration over the antics of the Hungarian.

“Nobody can blackmail the European Council. Nobody can blackmail the European Union institutions,” he told reporters after being questioned by Euronews, insisting that the loan will be paid out as agreed last December. Still, Orbán doubled down on his veto.

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Separately, Costa praised Ukraine’s efforts to repair the Druzhba pipeline and allow an EU-led inspection on site in line with demands by Hungary and Slovakia just days before the summit, despite the fact that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was personally against reinstating transit of Russian oil through Ukraine as the war continues.

Orbán insists that Ukraine has purposely sabotaged the pipeline to orchestrate an energy crisis ahead of a tight election on April 12. Zelenskyy says the allegation is unfounded but has also lashed out in public at Orbán in multiple occasions.

Costa, according to a diplomat, said both must tone down the rhetoric, but also noted that Hungary is putting on the table impossible conditions, such as ensuring the safety of transit, while Russia keeps pounding Ukraine with missiles and drones.

“This is not acting in good faith, when you put a condition that neither the European Union nor the member states can ensure,” Costa said.

“Because only Russia is willing to decide if they try again to destroy the Druzhba pipeline,” he added, noting Moscow has attacked it more than 20 times since 2022.

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“And of course, it is not the responsibility of Ukraine, the Commission, the European Council or any member state.”

In an effort to break the impasse, Brussels announced two days before the summit that Ukraine had allowed an external inspection and the EU would provide funding to fix the pipeline. But the pressure on Zelenskyy to approve the on-site mission failed to get the Hungarian leader to change his mind.

And it now poses a direct threat to the credibility of the institutions, the functioning of the EU and the top leadership from Costa to Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

On Thursday evening, von der Leyen said Hungary, alongside Slovakia and the Czech Republic, agreed at the highest political level to go ahead with the loan in December in exchange for being financially exempted.

“That condition has been fulfilled. So let us be clear about where we stand: the loan remains blocked because one leader is not honouring his word,” she said.

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“But let me reiterate what I already said in Kyiv: we will deliver one way or the other.”

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also accused Orbán of an “act of serious disloyalty” that should be prevented in the future, changing voting rules if necessary.

French President Emmanuel Macron called for the December deal to be respected and warned that concerns about energy security “must not be instrumentalised”.

Sweden’s Ulf Kristersson, Austria’s Christian Stocker and Belgium’s Bart De Wever were among those who criticised Orbán for exploiting the dispute with Kyiv for his re-election campaign, which has taken an explosive tone in its final stretch.

High Representative Kaja Kallas went further, questioning the motivations of the veto and the Hungarian arguments: “I guess, in the time of elections, people are not that rational.”

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No backing down

A roundtable session described as “heated and tense” by diplomats was not enough to get Orbán to back down. If anything, he doubled down. And leaders quickly understood the veto will most certainly remain until the Hungarian elections take place.

After the summit, the Hungarian leader went a step beyond and suggested Brussels is working with Ukraine to force a pro-Brussels government in Budapest.

“The European institutions, including parts of the Commission and the European Parliament, would like to have a change of government in Hungary. And they finance it,” he said as he departed the meeting.

The accusations are not new, but they are serious as they imply political meddling. As the campaign enters its final weeks, Orbán is intensifying his attacks on his opponent, Péter Magyar, as a puppet candidate of von der Leyen and Zelenskyy.

Before leaving Brussels, he vowed to “no money for Ukraine” until the oil flows are back and claimed he “had defended the Hungarian national interest by breaking the blockade”.

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The Hungarian veto comes at a precarious time for Europe.

The United States, under President Donald Trump, has cut off all assistance to Ukraine, leaving Europeans to pick up the tab alone.

The €90 billion loan agreed in December, following contentious talks among leaders, serves as the backbone of Ukraine’s budget needs for 2026 and 2027. Without it, Ukrainian authorities have warned they may not be able to make ends meet, and that could have serious repercussions on the battlefield.

Under the original plan, Kyiv was supposed to receive the first payment in early April to avoid a sudden cut-off in foreign assistance. But the veto, coupled with the Hungarian vote, has thrown that timeline into disarray.

Although opinion polls show Orbán trailing Magyar by double digits, he could still win as the gap narrows ahead of the vote and prolong the veto even further.

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To make matters more difficult, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, whose country is also connected to Druzhba, has warned that he will continue the blockage if Orbán loses the elections and the pipeline is not repaired.

The dispute poses an exceptionally complex challenge for Brussels, which is caught between safeguarding energy security for member states and supporting Ukraine.

For António Costa, the person tasked with ensuring that decisions taken by EU leaders are upheld, Orbán’s defiance threatens to undercut his authority.

“It’s completely unacceptable what Hungary is doing,” Costa said on Thursday. “And this behaviour cannot be accepted by the leaders.”

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New study challenges a site that’s key to how humans got to the Americas

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New study challenges a site that’s key to how humans got to the Americas

NEW YORK (AP) — For decades, the strongest evidence for the earliest human settlement in the Americas came from a site in Chile called Monte Verde.

Scientists found echoes of human presence dating back to around 14,500 years ago, including footprints, wooden tools, foundations for a building and the remains of an ancient fire pit. They dated sediments and artifacts from the site to this time frame.

A new study challenges the age of this important site, suggesting Monte Verde might be much younger than scientists thought. But not everyone agrees with the findings.

Scientists sampled and dated sediments from nine areas along the Chinchihuapi Creek by the site and analyzed how the landscape changed over thousands of years. They uncovered a layer of volcanic ash from an eruption dating back to about 11,000 years ago.

Anything above that layer — in this case, the Monte Verde wood and artifacts — had to be younger, according to study co-author Claudio Latorre.

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“We basically reinterpreted the geology of the site. And we came to the conclusion that the Monte Verde site cannot be older than 8,200 years before present,” said Latorre, who works at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile.

The researchers think changes to the landscape, including a stream wearing down the rocks, may have mixed old layers with new, causing researchers to date ancient wood as part of the Monte Verde site.

The findings were published Thursday in the journal Science. Several scientists, including those involved with the original excavations, take issue with the results.

“They have provided, at best, a working hypothesis that is not supported by the data they presented,” said Michael Waters of Texas A&M University, who had no role in either study.

Experts not involved with the research say the study includes analysis of samples from the area surrounding Monte Verde, where the geology isn’t comparable to the site itself. And they say there’s not enough evidence that the layer of volcanic ash once covered the entire landscape.

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They also say the study doesn’t offer a sufficient explanation for the artifacts found at the site that have been directly dated to 14,500 years ago, including a mastodon tusk fashioned into a tool, a wooden lance and a digging stick with a burned tip.

“This interpretation disregards a vast body of well-dated cultural evidence,” archaeologist Tom Dillehay of Vanderbilt University, who led the site’s first excavation, said in an email.

The new study’s authors disagree with these criticisms, saying they sampled within, upstream and downstream of the site. And there’s not enough evidence that the dated artifacts at the site really are that old, said co-author Todd Surovell, of the University of Wyoming.

The Monte Verde site is critical to scientists’ understanding of how people got to the Americas. Scientists used to think the first arrivals were a group of people 13,000 years ago who made tipped stone tools known as Clovis points. The discovery and dating of Monte Verde, which was initially mired in controversy, appeared to put that to rest.

It’s unclear how a new date for the site might affect the human story. Since Monte Verde, researchers have uncovered sites in North America that predate the Clovis people, such as Cooper’s Ferry in Idaho and the Debra L. Friedkin site in Texas.

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But another big question is how, exactly, people got to the Americas from Asia, maneuvering south of two massive ice sheets covering Canada. Did humans arrive in time for the sheets to part, revealing an ice-free corridor? Did they travel along the coast in boats, or over a mix of water and land?

A revised date for Monte Verde could reopen discussions about the most likely route by early humans, said Surovell. Future independent analyses of other early human sites could provide more clarity.

“Given enough time and given the ability to do science, science is self-corrective,” Surovell said. “It eventually reaches the truth.”

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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