Finance
Originalism’s campaign finance conundrum
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In a recent interview, Justice Amy Coney Barrett shared her view that “originalism became prominent as a theory” as a counterweight to the theory of “living constitutionalism” that “had become dominant” during the courts led by Chief Justices Earl Warren and Warren Burger. According to Barrett, whereas the living constitutionalism of the Warren-Burger eras put the court in the position of functionally amending the Constitution by updating its meaning, originalism instead aims to understand “how those who ratified the Constitution understood the words.”
There is no doubt that decisions from the Warren and Burger courts are now open to question by a solid majority of originalist justices; the court’s 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, holding that there is no constitutional right to an abortion, is only the most noteworthy example of this. But many other precedents from that same era have not yet received comparable scrutiny, prominent among these being the court’s seminal campaign finance decision in the 1976 case of Buckley v. Valeo.
When the Supreme Court hears oral argument in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission this morning, Tuesday, Dec. 9, it will confront fundamental questions about the First Amendment and money in politics. But the case also presents an underappreciated puzzle: How should originalists think about Buckley, which created much of our constitutional framework around campaign finance?
What Buckley did
In the early 1970s, Congress crafted legislation aimed at addressing the soaring cost of political campaigns and reducing the perceived influence of wealthy interests. The Federal Election Campaign Act of 1971 passed with bipartisan supermajorities in both chambers. President Richard Nixon signed it into law, noting that “the goal of controlling campaign expenditures was a highly laudable one.” When Congress amended FECA in 1974, which, among other things, further limited the amounts that could be contributed to federal candidates, President Gerald Ford proclaimed: “The unpleasant truth is that big money influence has come to play an unseem[ly] role in our electoral process. This bill will he[l]p to right that wrong.”
Nevertheless, in Buckley – which turns 50 next month – the Supreme Court struck down most of FECA’s core provisions. The court functionally equated spending money in politics with “the freedom of speech” itself, concluding that limits on campaign spending “necessarily reduces the quantity of expression by restricting the number of issues discussed, the depth of their exploration, and the size of the audience reached.” While the court upheld limits on direct contributions to federal candidates as a guard against quid pro quo corruption, it invalidated all limits on expenditures by campaigns or independent groups.
Buckley runs to a remarkable 144 pages in the U.S. Reports — the longest majority opinion the court has ever produced. Yet nowhere in those 144 pages does the court engage in any sort of originalist analysis of the core questions in the case. There’s no sustained examination of what “the freedom of speech” originally entailed, no investigation of how the founding generation would have understood campaign finance regulation, and no inquiry into which institution they expected to resolve such questions.
A methodological resemblance
Indeed, Buckley emerged during a period when originalism was not the court’s dominant mode of constitutional interpretation, and the decision bears striking similarities to other cases that originalists have criticized for lacking grounding in the Constitution’s original meaning. Three examples are especially pertinent.
First, in the 1965 case of Griswold v. Connecticut, Justice William O. Douglas famously identified a constitutional right to privacy prohibiting states from banning contraception for married couples. He derived this from “penumbras, formed by emanations” of various Bill of Rights provisions, a move which originalists have condemned for creating rights without any clear textual foundation. Buckley took similar leaps, deriving the concept of unlimited campaign spending from the First Amendment’s “freedom of speech” without any consideration of this amendment’s original meaning.
Second is Miranda v. Arizona, decided in 1966, which prescribed specific warnings that police officers must give to individuals in custody. In that case, the court provided no textualist or originalist grounding in the Fifth Amendment’s self-incrimination clause. For that reason, originalists have long derided the decision as “inconsistent with the original understanding of the right against self-incrimination” and “a usurpation of legislative and administrative powers, thinly disguised as an exercise in constitutional exegesis[.]” Buckley likewise creates detailed rules constraining democratic choices about campaign finance without any obvious textual commands.
Last is 1973’s Roe v. Wade, which created an elaborate trimester framework that, according to originalists, resembled legislation far more than constitutional interpretation. Like Roe, Buckley constructed a detailed architecture — distinguishing contributions from expenditures, applying different levels of scrutiny to each, and creating categorical rules about corruption — that looks far more legislative than interpretive.
None of this necessarily means that Buckley – or any of the cases cited above – reached the wrong result as a matter of policy. But it does raise questions about methodology. If these forms of reasoning were problematic to originalists in Griswold, Roe, and Miranda, what makes them acceptable in Buckley?
The “who decides” question
Recent originalist scholarship reveals an even deeper problem with Buckley, however. Stanford law professor Jud Campbell’s path-breaking research on the founding era has shown that recovering original meaning requires an understanding of not just what rights the Founders recognized, but which institution they expected to resolve disputes about those rights.
Based on this understanding, and as relevant to Buckley, a key question isn’t merely whether political speech was valued at the founding (it certainly was) – but whether courts were expected to micromanage legislative efforts to address corruption or preserve electoral integrity. And Campbell’s research demonstrates that there was no such view. Instead, the Founders believed that representative institutions could regulate liberty in the public interest – speech included – provided that the people consented through their elected representatives. As Campbell has explained, there is “no evidence that the Founders denied legislative authority to regulate expressive conduct in promotion of the public good — a principle that runs contrary to countless modern decisions.”
Of course, the Founders did expect courts to enforce some constitutional limits. But they expected judges to defer to legislative judgments unless a constitutional violation was clear beyond dispute. Aggressive judicial review using heightened scrutiny is a 20th-century innovation, not a founding-era practice.
But Buckley considered none of this.
Citizens United and beyond
In 2010, Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission extended Buckley’s framework, holding that corporations and other entities have a First Amendment right to make unlimited independent expenditures in elections. In doing so, the court struck down longstanding federal restrictions on corporate campaign spending and overruled precedents upholding such limits. The reasoning was pure Buckley: vigorous judicial review, equation of spending with speech, and dismissal of legislative concerns about corruption unless narrowly defined as quid pro quo arrangements. For this reason, Citizens United has also been critiqued as a non-originalist decision.
The court has only continued this pattern. When Montana sought to apply its century-old ban on corporate expenditures – a law rooted in the state’s particular history with corporate domination of politics – the court summarily reversed in a one-paragraph, unsigned opinion. In McCutcheon v. Federal Election Commission, the majority struck down aggregate limits on individual contributions. In Arizona Free Enterprise Club v. Bennett, the court invalidated Arizona’s public financing scheme. Each decision further entrenched the court as the nation’s primary campaign finance regulator, with democratic bodies relegated to implementing the court’s commands.
The contrast with other constitutional areas is striking. In economic regulation, national security, and countless other domains, the court defers to legislative fact-finding and policy judgments. But campaign finance is apparently different. Here the court insists on its own assessment of empirical questions: What constitutes corruption? When does money create the appearance of improper influence? Will such appearance “cause the electorate to lose faith in our democracy”?
Implications for NRSC v. FEC
As the court considers NRSC v. FEC, it once again faces a choice about how seriously to take originalism when it comes to campaign finance. The case involves federal contribution limits and party coordination rules – specifically, whether limits on how much political parties can spend on campaign advertising that is coordinated with the party’s candidate for office are consistent with the First Amendment. These are technical questions, but they are rooted in the same framework as Buckley.
An originalist approach would ask not only what the understanding of free speech was at the time of the founding (as Buckley failed to do), but whether campaign finance was understood to be an area of vigorous judicial oversight or legislative primacy. As for the latter concern, the founding generation’s answer seems clear. They valued political speech but expected elected representatives to make judgments about how to structure democratic processes.
Defenders of Buckley might respond that political speech occupies a unique constitutional position, or that judicial protection is essential regardless of original understanding. These are serious arguments. But they represent a departure from originalist methodology rather than an application of it. They prioritize judicial assertiveness over the founding generation’s institutional assumptions.
The question, then, is whether originalism’s principles apply consistently across subject areas, or whether campaign finance represents a special case in which other considerations override originalist constraints. If the latter, the court should say so explicitly rather than leaving the tension implicit.
This doesn’t prejudge how NRSC should come out. The court might conclude (unlike in Dobbs) that stare decisis counsels retaining Buckley despite originalist doubts concerning it. Or it might begin the process of unwinding Buckley’s framework, returning campaign finance to democratic processes while maintaining a limited judicial role. Or it might articulate why campaign finance truly is exceptional in ways the Founders would have recognized. But it is high time that the court confronts this tension directly rather than allow Buckley to further distort its approach to such a vital area of the democratic process.
Disclosure: American Promise filed an amicus brief in support of neither party in National Republican Senatorial Committee v. Federal Election Commission.
Finance
Hong Kong reasserts role as safe haven in global finance amid Iran conflict
The seven-week military conflict in the Middle East will redefine Hong Kong’s role as a global financial centre, positioning the city as a safe harbour for capital and investments.
Anecdotal evidence suggested that more banks had turned to Hong Kong to protect their businesses and committed themselves to expanding their presence in the city. At the same time, inquiries about adding allocations of mainland Chinese assets among global investors had recently increased, potentially enlarging the customer base for the city’s asset-management industry and family offices and driving demand for offshore yuan-linked financial products.
For years, Hong Kong’s status as a financial centre in the Asia-Pacific region has been challenged by Dubai, which has risen to prominence as a gateway linking Asia and Europe in capital flows, transport and logistics. With the war destabilising the Middle East – at one point forcing the closure of the Dubai International Airport and sending stocks in the Gulf region plunging – Hong Kong has re-emerged due to its geographical location, a pegged exchange rate, free capital flows and support from China’s economic strength.
“In that context, China and Hong Kong are attracting renewed attention,” said Gary Dugan, CEO of The Global CIO Office in Dubai, which advises family offices and ultra-high-net-worth individuals globally. “There is growing interest among some clients in increasing exposure to China and Hong Kong. It is less a simple flight to safety and more a reassessment of where investors see relative value, policy consistency and long-term strategic opportunity.”
Dubai now relies on trade, tourism and finance as the pillars of its economy, reflecting the success of its four-decade diversification away from oil for sustained growth. The United Arab Emirates city is home to Jebel Ali Free Zone, the biggest free-trade zone in the Middle East, and the second-largest stock market in the region, with combined market values of US$1.01 trillion. The city, also a global hub for gold trading, has a population of 4 million, about 80 per cent of which are foreign expatriates. Dubai’s economy grew by 4.7 per cent in the January-to-September period last year.
Finance
Budget crisis is top concern for MPS leader Cassellius | Opinion
Before seeking a new referendum MPS needs to rebuild trust in the community through completing state audits, putting in place controls to prevent overspending and routine reports to the public.
For MPS Superintendent Brenda Cassellius, who just wrapped up her first year leading Milwaukee’s public school system, her tenure has been punctuated by some very big numbers.
The first is $252 million. That is the amount of new spending voters narrowly approved in an April 2024 referendum to support operations in Wisconsin’s largest school district. Just months later, MPS was rocked by revelations the district was months behind in filing key financial reports to the state, which led to former Superintendent Keith Posley’s resignation.
The second is $1 billion. MPS faces a deferred maintenance backlog exceeding $1 billion. The district’s enrollment has declined 30% over the last 30 years, leaving many schools at less than 50% full. That, in part, is driving a plan to close some schools and to improve others to help lower costs.
The final is $46 million, the deficit MPS was running for the 2024-25 school year, an unexpected shortfall which has led to hundreds of staff layoffs.
Getting the district’s accounting, budgeting and financial reporting back on track has dominated Cassellius’s first year at MPS. In an April 15 interview with the Journal Sentinel’s editorial board, she talked in detail about the challenges putting that into order and progress she sees in restoring transparency into its operations.
State funding and aging buildings create budget nightmares
Cassellius says state needs to keep up its share of school funding
In an interview with the Journal Sentinel editorial board, MPS leader Brenda Cassellius says budgets and buildings are her two top worries.
Cassellius said the on-going budget crisis is her top concern. She said the state’s failure to live up to its share of funding is exacerbating MPS’ budget woes. A group of school districts, teachers and parents filed suit against the state Legislature and its Joint Finance Committee claiming the current state funding system is unconstitutional and prevents schools from meeting students’ educational needs.
Funding for special education is especially critical. About 20% of MPS students have disabilities, almost twice the share of the city’s charter schools, and the average of 14% across Wisconsin.
“What’s keeping me up now, you know, is really just the budget crisis we’re in, with not only this year but multiple years going out without additional state aid, we’ve been not getting funding for what our needs are for our students, and particularly our students with special needs,” she said.
Although the state budget increased special education funding to a 42% reimbursement rate, the actual rate has been about 35%. Another component to the budget headache is the age of MPS buildings. The average age is 85 years-old compared to 45 across the nation.
“We have just kicked this can down the curb or kicked it down the street or whatever you call it for too long. And it’s time that we really take on a serious conversation about the conditions of the learning environments in which we send our children,” she said. “Particularly in Milwaukee Public Schools, we serve the most vulnerable children. Children who have language barriers, children who have disabilities, children in high-concentrated poverty.”
What needs to happen before MPS seeks another referendum
Voters need to be comfortable MPS has made tough budget decisions
In an interview with Journal Sentinel editorial board, Brenda Cassellius said voters will need to see budget improvements before seeking more spending
Cassellius said MPS will definitely need to go back to voters for a new referendum in the future. In addition to the 2024 measure, voters approved an $87 million plan in 2020.
Before doing that, she said the district first needs to rebuild trust in the community through completing required state audits, putting into place controls to prevent overspending and routine reports to the school board and public about finances.
“I don’t think that the voters are going to want us to bring something forward until they feel comfortable that we have done the cleanup that is necessary,” she said. “And we’ve built the trust that we have the sufficient controls in place.”
In the interim, she’s hoping the state will meet its constitutional responsibility to adequately fund public schools.
“What the public expects is you know where the money is, you’re spending it as close as you can to children, you’re getting good on the promise around art, music, and PE, and the things the public said they wanted to fund,” Cassellius said. “And they want their kids to have so that they have a quality education and an excellent education in Milwaukee Public Schools, and that they had the right amount of staff that they actually need. In the school to be safe and to run a good operation.”
Rebuilding finance staff in wake of $46 million in overspending
MPS is rebuilding school finance staff in wake of reporting lapses
In an interview with the Journal Sentinel editorial board April 15, MPS superintendent discusses accountability for district’s financial problems.
The $46 million budget shortfall from the 2024-25 school year started coming into view last fall and was confirmed in mid-January. Cassellius noted that in addition to hiring a new superintendent, MPS also parted ways with its comptroller and CFO.
“We are really rebuilding the personnel and staff of the finance department. That is what’s critical, is having the right people in the right seats doing the work,” she said. “Also critical is making sure that you have the right controls in place. The audit findings found that we did not have proper controls in place and now we have those proper controls in place and when we find things we put new SOPs in place and that is what any business does.”
Identifying that shortfall, though painful, was the result of better accounting.
“Being three years behind in auditing means that you don’t have full sight on your actual revenues and expenditures. And so we have now full sight of our revenues and our expenditures and that’s why we were able to see this new deficit of $46 million,” she said. “And we still continue to work with DPI on those processes to make sure that every month we’re doing monthly to actuals and doing those accounting, reporting that to the board. In a way that is consumable to the public that they can understand.”
Jim Fitzhenry is the Ideas Lab Editor/Director of Community Engagement for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Reach him at jfitzhen@gannett.com or 920-993-7154.
Finance
Psychological shift unfolds in soft Aussie housing market: ‘Vendors feel pressure’
Property markets move in cycles, and with interest rates rising and other pressures like high fuel costs, some markets are clearly slowing down. Many first-home buyers who have only ever seen markets going up are conditioned to think that when purchasing, competition is always intense and decisions need to be made quickly.
In those times, buyers often feel they need to act fast, stretch their budget and secure a property at almost any cost. But things have definitely changed.
In a softer market, the dynamic shifts. Properties take longer to sell, competition thins, and it’s the vendors who begin to feel pressure.
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For buyers who understand how to navigate that change, the balance of power quickly moves in their favour. The opportunity is not simply to buy at a lower price. It is to negotiate from a position of strength.
If that’s you right now, these are the key skills first-home buyers need to take advantage of in softer market conditions.
The most important shift in a soft market is psychological. In a rising market, buyers often feel like they are competing for limited opportunities. In a softer market, the opposite is true. There are more properties available, fewer active buyers and less urgency overall. This gives buyers options.
When buyers understand that they are not competing with multiple parties on every property, their decision-making improves. They are more willing to walk away, compare opportunities and avoid overpaying. Negotiation strength comes from not needing to transact immediately. When that pressure is removed, buyers are able to engage more strategically.
One of the most common mistakes first-home buyers make is continuing to apply strategies that only work in rising markets. Auction urgency is a clear example. In strong markets, auctions often attract multiple bidders and create competitive tension. In softer conditions, properties are more likely to pass in, shifting the process away from a public bidding environment into a private negotiation.
This is where leverage increases.
Private negotiations allow buyers to introduce conditions that protect their position. These may include finance clauses, longer settlement periods or price adjustments based on due diligence. Opportunities that are rarely available in competitive markets become standard in softer ones.
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