Business
Commentary: Why are beef prices so high? Blame tariffs, drought and a disgusting parasite
It has become routine practice to turn to Trump administration spokespersons to learn how Democrats and illegal immigrants are the source of all our problems. The high price of beef? Check.
Here, for example, is Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explaining for Fox News on Sunday why beef prices have been soaring:
“This is the perfect storm,” he said, “something we inherited.” (That’s the blaming the Democrats part.)
The beef segment remains our only soft spot.
— Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King
“Also,” he continued, “because of the mass immigration, a disease we’d been rid off in North America made its way up through South America as these migrants, they brought some of their cattle with them. So part of the problem is we’ve had to shut the border to Mexican beef.”
As is sometimes the case with Bessent, there’s a tiny nugget of truth in his words, surrounded by a bodyguard of misrepresentation.
The truth nugget is that the U.S. Department of Agriculture shut the border to Mexican cattle in March, in order to block the spread to the U.S. of the New World screwworm, a gruesome parasite that has been found in Central and South American herds.
But Bessent’s image of immigrants smuggling their infected beeves across the border is transparent fantasy. The USDA’s announcement of the blockade didn’t tie the screwworm peril to immigration, illegal or otherwise, but to commercial imports. The agency also stated that the infestation hadn’t yet penetrated farther north than Oaxaca and Veracruz, 700 miles from the U.S. border.
The Treasury Secretary’s spiel can properly be seen as standard Trumpian deflection.
That’s because at least some of the run-up in beef prices at the supermarket can be blamed on Trump policies, including his tariff on beef imported from Brazil, which has been a major exporter to the U.S. Trump himself implicitly acknowledged this Friday, when he announced that he was scrapping tariffs on beef and other foodstuffs to bring prices down.
Trump’s budget-cutting also has contributed to the crisis. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins in June announced a “five-pronged plan” to combat the parasite south of the border. What she didn’t mention was that in March, the Trump administration cut off funding for anti-screwworm efforts operated by the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization as part of its decimation of the U.S. Agency for international Development.
That said, much more is driving beef inflation than tariffs and the screwworm. And an examination of all the root causes indicates that things are likely to get worse at the meat counter before they get better. A recovery in beef prices, according to agricultural experts, may take years.
The root of the beef price problem: The size of the U.S. cattle herd peaked in 1975 and is now lower than it has been since 1951.
(USDA)
Before going further, let’s look at the raw numbers. It won’t be news to most shoppers that beef prices have been on a long-term ascent. The average price of uncooked beef steaks reached a record $12.26 per pound in September, up 15.2% from just before Trump took office.
That’s the tail of a long trend, however: The price was $3.64 in January 1998, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, meaning that it has more than trebled during a period in which the overall consumer price index merely doubled.
In recent months, major food processing companies have felt more than a slight pinch. Donnie King, chief executive of Tyson Foods, which owns such lunch meat and sausage brands as Hillshire Farms, BallPark, Jimmy Dean and Aidells, told investors at its fourth-quarter earnings roundup Nov. 10 that “the beef segment remains our only soft spot.”
The company reported an adjusted operating loss of $426 million on beef in fiscal 2025 and projected a loss of up to $600 million in the category for the 2025-26 fiscal year, in part because cattle costs had increased by $1.84 billion, a far larger cost increase than it experienced for any other input. It said that its earnings have been protected by gains in chicken, which has attracted shoppers shunning beef. Overall, for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 27, Tyson reported a profit of $507 million on revenue of $54.4 billion.
That brings us to the real factors driving beef prices higher. To a great extent, they’re secular. One is a long-term decline in the size of the U.S. cattle herd, which has fallen to about 87.2 million head of cattle and calves, its lowest level since 1951. Among the factors in that slide was a drought that struck the cattle-raising prairie states starting in 2020 and lasting through 2022. The all-time peak in the U.S. herd came in 1975, when it reached 132 million head.
Hay prices shot up by about 45% in 2022. With feed costs consuming the value of livestock, ranchers sold off their herds or stepped up the slaughter of their cows and heifers — producing a short-term glut of beef at store shelves but mortgaging their future supply.
Raising an animal from calf to marketable beef takes at least three years. Tyson executives told investors that they had seen signs that ranchers were finally rebuilding their herds, but that means a continued shortage of beef in the years just ahead.
Into this uncertain environment, Trump threw another complication: tariffs. These included a 50% levy on imports from Brazil, which Trump imposed in July not as a protectionist step, but because he was discontented with the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro for an alleged coup plot. (Bolsonaro was convicted and sentenced in September to more than 27 years in prison.)
That was a problem because, although foreign beef doesn’t account for a large share of overall beef consumption, it’s important for some categories, notably “lean beef trim,” which gets mixed in with fattier U.S. ground beef to yield the hamburger meat favored by American consumers. Brazil’s production of lean trim helped its beef exports reach more than 25% of all U.S. beef imports.
The long-term rise in beef prices has provoked market participants into a spate of finger-pointing, not all of which is groundless. In 2019, consumer advocates accused Tyson, Cargill and other meat-packers in a lawsuit of conspiring to fix beef prices. Tyson and Cargill settled the accusations against them last month without acknowledging guilt, Tyson paying $55 million and Cargill, $33.5 million. Two foreign-owned companies, JBS USA and National Beef Packing, are still in court.
Others have pointed to putative profiteering by cattle ranchers, whose profits per animal have spiraled higher, even as many have pared the size of their herds.
One might also point to American consumers, who haven’t moderated their beef buying enough to subject the commodity to the rigors of supply-and-demand economics.
The administration’s approach to the rise in beef prices has been chaotic and incoherent. Last month, Trump said he would alleviate the price spike by importing more beef from Argentina.
The proposal garnered instantaneous backlash from American cattle producers. They said the plan “only creates chaos at a critical time of the year for American cattle producers, while doing nothing to lower grocery store prices,” in the words of Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Assn. The group noted that Argentina accounts for a bare 2% of U.S. beef imports, meaning that even a significant expansion of the trade flow would do little to moderate prices.
In sum, there’s little Trump can do to influence beef prices, except to make the situation worse, as happened because of his tariffs. Now that he has reversed course and lifted his thumb off the Brazil trade, prices might improve, if modestly. But all those other factors such as drought, the long-term decline in domestic herds and disease, will still be with us, for some time.
Business
Indian truckers sue California’s DMV for revoking their licenses
Immigrant truck drivers have sued the California Department of Motor Vehicles for terminating the commercial driver’s licenses of thousands of drivers, alleging that the decision violated their rights and threatened their livelihood.
California’s DMV gave a 60-day cancellation notice to 17,000 drivers on Nov. 6 after a federal audit found the licenses issued to immigrant drivers were set to expire after the time they were legally allowed to remain in the U.S.
In the event of such clerical errors by the DMV, the suit alleges, California law requires the DMV to change the expiration of its own accord or to allow applicants to reapply for a corrected license.
“The state of California must help these 20,000 drivers because, at the end of the day, the clerical errors threatening their livelihoods are of the CA-DMV’s own making,” said Munmeeth Kaur, legal director of the Sikh Coalition, a group fighting for the civil rights of Sikhs.
The Sikh Coalition and Asian Law Caucus filed the class-action lawsuit on behalf of five commercial driver’s license holders, challenging the DMV’s decision to revoke licenses.
Since November, the number of cancellation notifications has grown to more than 20,000.
“If the court does not issue a stay, we will see a devastating wave of unemployment that harms individual families, as well as the destabilization of supply chains on which we all rely,” said Kaur.
The Sikh Coalition also noted that the action was taken under pressure from the federal government. It said the California DMV has failed to provide recourse, and informed applicants that it’s not issuing or renewing non-resident commercial driver’s licenses.
Punjabi Sikh truckers have emerged as a pillar of the American trucking industry. For years, many have sought asylum in the U.S. and entered the transportation industry.
There are around 750,000 Punjabi Sikhs in the United States. Of those, about 150,000 work in the trucking industry, with the majority based on the West Coast.
The issue of immigrant truckers became a political flash point earlier this year, when a Punjabi Sikh driver took an illegal U-turn at a turnpike that caused a crash in Florida that killed three people. The Trump administration swung into action and found seven states, including California, Washington and Texas, that had lax licensing rules.
The crackdown has caused a wave of racism and racial profiling of Sikh truckers, many of whom sport turbans and beards as symbols of their faith, which is neither Hindu nor Muslim.
Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy singled out California for issuing commercial driver’s licenses to what his department says are unqualified immigrant truckers that put lives on the road in danger. Many truckers quit the industry after the introduction of enhanced English proficiency tests, where highway inspectors check for language proficiency and highway traffic sign competency.
Policy changes regarding noncitizen commercial licenses and English-language proficiency enforcement could remove more than 400,000 commercial drivers from the market over the next three years, according to J.B. Hunt, one of the largest trucking companies.
Business
Commentary: The latest government inflation and GDP figures are worthless, and will be for months to come
The federal government’s monthly releases of economic statistics — especially the inflation rate and growth as tracked by gross domestic product — have long occasioned partisan preening (or denunciation) and for a general public stock-taking of the health of the economy.
Not this month. This time, they’re the occasion for doubt and confusion.
On Dec. 18, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that inflation had fallen to an annual rate of 2.7% in November, down from 3% in September and well below the 3.1% consensus of economists. And on Tuesday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real gross domestic product had shot up by a surprising 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter of 2025 ended Sept. 30.
The numbers give you meaningful information about the system, but not about how people experience their actual lives.
— Zachary Karabell
Unsurprisingly, the Trump administration and its Republican acolytes seized on the figures to boast about Trump’s economic policies. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett proclaimed the inflation figure to be “an absolute blockbuster report.” He described the GDP figure as “a great Christmas present for the American people.”
“America is winning again,” crowed House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) after the GDP report. He called it “the direct result of congressional Republicans and President Trump delivering policies that drive growth and expand opportunity for American families and workers.”
Um, not so fast.
The economists whose jobs involve scrutinizing those statistics to glean what they really mean don’t view them as unalloyed support for Trumponomics. Quite the contrary. Many see them as artifacts of the long government shutdown, which halted the collection of data that go into those reports, severely distorting the results. Furthermore, they expect the flaws in those reports to persist well into 2026, undermining their usefulness as true economic indicators.
“You’ve got to take it with a grain of salt,” said Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG US, of the inflation report. “It’s confusing and it doesn’t quite square with prices that we’ve observed.”
A close examination of the GDP figures also underscores the narrow basis driving economic growth in recent months — it’s essentially the product of robust spending by wealthy consumers and massive corporate investments in AI technology. For middle- and lower-income Americans, the economic present and future don’t look anywhere as sunny as the numbers would suggest.
“The numbers give you meaningful information about the system, but not about how people experience their actual lives,” says financial analyst and economic commentator Zachary Karabell, whose 2014 book “The Leading Indicators” injected some perspective on how we interpret economic statistics and explained why our faith in them is often misplaced.
Indeed, consumer confidence has been sinking for months, according to the Conference Board. That points to an enduring question about the U.S. economy: Whose economy is it?
More than ever, it belongs to the rich, producing a “K-shaped” economy, which has been playing out in shopping patterns this holiday season, as my colleague Caroline Petrow-Cohen recently wrote.
According to Bank of America analysts, since this spring, spending by the highest-earning third of Americans has been soaring, while that of middle- and lower-income households has stagnated. In part that’s because the stock market has remained vibrant.
Since the top 20% of households as measured by income own about 87% of directly-held equities, stock market gains “tend to disproportionately benefit the higher-income cohort,” the BofA analysts noted. By contrast, “almost 30% of lower-income households appear to be living ‘paycheck to paycheck.’”
The highest-earning 10% of households now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, according to Moody’s Analytics. That’s the highest level since the data began to be collected in the 1980s, when the rich accounted for only about one-third of spending.
Job growth may already have turned negative, even if the published employment figures don’t yet show it, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged during a Dec. 10 news conference following the Fed’s decision to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.
Non-farm payroll gains have averaged about 40,000 a month since April, Powell observed. “We think there’s an overstatement in these numbers by about 60,000,” he said. “So that would be negative 20,000 per month.”
The divergence between the gross economic statistics and the lived experience of Americans is nothing new. It was remarked on by Robert F. Kennedy Sr. in a speech in March 1968, less than three months before his nascent presidential campaign was ended by an assassin’s bullet.
“Gross national product counts air pollution and cigarette advertising, and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage,” he observed. “It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for the people who break them. It counts the destruction of the redwood and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl. It counts napalm and counts nuclear warheads and armored cars for the police to fight the riots in our cities. … Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. … It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile.”
That brings us to the specific flaws in the latest statistics.
The government shutdown, which lasted 43 days from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12, was the most important cause of gaps in the collected data for the consumer price index calculation. As Swonk noted in a social media post, cutbacks at the BLS had already reduced the staff assigned to sampling prices by 25%. That prompted the agency to substitute “imputed” numbers for hard data.
“Those cases can show up as zeros in the percent change of the release,” Swonk wrote — obviously lowering the bottom-line figure. A sampling scheduled for mid-October had to be canceled, so figures dating from August were used instead — concealing any price increases in subsequent months.
A major problem concerns housing costs, which account for about one-third of the data inputs for the CPI. Because the BLS was unable to collect rental data for October, it implied that the monthly change in rents was 0% in October — further skewing the reported CPI lower. Experts say it will take at least six months to use newly collected data to provide a reliable estimate of housing inflation.
The delay in sampling, Swonk adds, means that some seasonal price phenomena were missed. She points specifically to airfares — the originally scheduled sampling would have incorporated a pre-Thanksgiving run-up in fares, but by the time the data were collected fares had returned to a non-holiday level.
Inflation data also are incorporated into GDP estimates — the lower the inflation rate, Swonk notes, the better the GDP looks. An artificially reduced inflation rate will translate into higher reported GDP growth.
All this might have a limited economic impact — corporations, banks and academic economists generally have sources other than the government to reach their conclusions — if not for the partisan political exploitation of the numbers.
As Karabell reported in his 2014 book, Simon Kuznets, the government statistician who helped to codify the collection of government figures in the 1930s, was concerned about how politics would give the statistics a misleading social significance.
“These numbers have turned into absolute markets of the human condition,” Karabell wrote, “when they are simply statistical descriptions of specific systems.”
Economists have warned that some economic factors haven’t yet fully played out. That includes Trump’s tariffs, which in their execution have been lower than they appeared on the surface, and higher healthcare premiums, which have been forecast or announced but won’t actually become effective until 2026.
If the job market continues to weaken, that will show up more vividly in 2026. The interplay between “a surging economy and a soft labor market,” argues Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at the business consulting firm RSM, “is likely to be the major economic narrative next year.”
Business
California crypto company accused of illegally inflating Katy Perry NFTs and fraud
Four years ago, California startup Theta Labs’ cryptocurrency was soaring, and its future appeared bright when it landed a partnership with pop star Katy Perry.
The Bay Area company had built a marketplace for digital collectibles known as nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, and had teamed up with Perry to launch NFTs tied to her Las Vegas concert residency. Its THETA token jumped by more than 500% in early 2021, reaching a peak of more than $15, making it one of the world’s most valuable cryptocurrencies. Later in the year, the spotlight shone on the company when it announced the Perry partnership.
“I can’t wait to dive in with the Theta team on all the exciting and memorable creative pieces, so my fans can own a special moment of my residency,” Perry said in a June 2021 news release.
Today, like many cryptocurrencies, THETA is 95% off its 2021 peak. It took a hit this week after former executives accused it of manipulating markets to dupe consumers into buying its products. On Tuesday, it was trading at less than 30 cents.
Two former executives from Theta Labs sued the startup, alleging in separate lawsuits that the company and its chief executive, Mitch Liu, engaged in fraud and manipulated the cryptocurrency market for his benefit. Liu retaliated against them after the employees refused to engage in deceptive business practices and raised concerns, the lawsuits say.
Some of the alleged misconduct involved placing fake bids on Perry’s NFTs, engaging in token “pump and dump” schemes and using celebrity endorsements and “misleading” partnerships with high-profile companies such as Google to deceive the public, according to the December lawsuits filed in Los Angeles Superior Court.
Perry is not accused of any wrongdoing in the suit, and Theta denies the charges.
The lawsuits against Theta Labs are the latest controversy to rattle an industry beset by scandals.
Cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed, and its founder, Samuel Bankman-Fried, was sentenced to 25 years in prison in 2024 after being found guilty of multiple fraud charges. Binance founder and former Chief Executive Changpeng Zhao also got prison time after he pleaded guilty to violating money laundering laws, but President Trump pardoned him this year.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission previously charged celebrities such as Kim Kardashian, Lindsay Lohan, Jake Paul and Ne-Yo for promoting crypto without disclosing they were paid to do so.
Theta Labs created a network that rewarded people with cryptocurrency for contributing spare bandwidth and computing power to enhance video streaming and lower content delivery costs. The company describes Theta Network as a “blockchain-powered decentralized cloud for AI, media and entertainment.” The network has two tokens: THETA, used to secure the network, and TFUEL, used to pay users for services and power operations.
The whistleblowers suing Theta Labs are Jerry Kowal, its former head of content, and Andrea Berry, previously the company’s head of business development.
“Liu used Theta Labs as his personal trading vehicle, perpetrating fraud, self-dealing, and market manipulation,” said Mark Mermelstein, Kowal’s attorney, in a statement. “His calculated ‘pump-and-dump’ schemes repeatedly wiped out employee and investor value. This suit is about demanding accountability and proving no one is above the law.”
Theta, Liu and its parent company, Sliver VR Technologies, deny the allegations and “intend to prove with evidence the fallacy of the stories being told in the lawsuits,” according to Kronenberger Rosenfeld, the law firm representing the defendants. The lawsuits are an attempt to paint the company in a negative light in hopes of securing a settlement, a lawyer for the firm said.
Kowal has sued his former employers before. In 2014, he accused Netflix of spreading false claims that he stole confidential information and Amazon of wrongful termination.
The latest lawsuits allege that Liu profited from buying and selling THETA tokens using insider knowledge about partnerships with celebrities, studios and others in the entertainment industry.
“Liu’s true motive in pursuing such partnerships was not to develop a sustainable content business but to generate publicity that could be used to artificially inflate token prices for Liu’s personal gain,” Kowal’s lawsuit says.
Kowal worked for Theta from 2020 to 2025.
In 2020, Liu traded and sold tokens knowing that the company would close a content licensing deal with MGM Studios, according to the lawsuit. After the deal’s announcement, THETA token’s market capitalization increased by more than $50 million in just 24 hours, the lawsuit says.
When NFTs started to take off in 2021, Kowal closed deals with high-profile partners such as Perry, Fremantle Media and Resorts World Las Vegas for the startup’s NFT marketplace.
As part of the deal with Perry, the singer received $8.5 million and additional warrants for the right to license her image and likeness for the NFTs.
To inflate the price and demand for these digital collectibles, Liu allegedly made bids on NFTs and directed employees to do the same. This led to people overpaying for the Perry NFTs.
Representatives for Perry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.
Multiple examples of alleged manipulation are outlined in the lawsuits. In one instance from 2022, the startup launched a new token called TDROP that employees also received as part of a bonus.
Liu gained control of 43% of the supply of the cryptocurrency, according to Kowal’s lawsuit. When the TDROP token reached a high, he then sold the token, and its price collapsed by more than 90% within months.
Berry’s lawsuit also alleges that Theta Labs announced “misleading” or fake partnerships with high-profile companies such as Google and entities including NASA to pump up the value of the THETA token. Theta paid for Google Cloud products but claimed it was a partner when it was a Google customer, according to the lawsuit.
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