The National Weather Service warns of a “high-impact and potentially life-threatening weather pattern” in Hawaii this week, with torrential rainfall, flash flooding, strong winds, severe thunderstorms and mountain snow.

Through Saturday, “we could easily see over 20 inches in the harder-hit areas, but that’s just a ballpark estimate,” said Laura Farris, a meteorologist at the weather service office in Hawaii.

Greater totals are possible atop the state’s volcanoes, which can measure feet of rain from the biggest storms.

The cause is a strong low-pressure system that will bring two rounds of stormy weather to the state Tuesday through Saturday. These systems are locally referred to as ‘Kona lows,’ and are responsible for Hawaii’s most extreme weather during winter months.

“The high-end potential of this Kona storm is significantly outside the realm of ‘normal’ wet season weather,” the weather service said.

Heavy rain will begin over Kauai on Tuesday morning before reaching Oahu on Tuesday night, prompting the weather service to issue a flood watch for those islands, which is in effect through Saturday afternoon.

A lull in storminess Thursday won’t last long, as “an even stronger disturbance is expected Friday into Saturday with major flooding and damaging winds,” the weather service said. That storm is likely to prompt additional flood watches and warnings for Maui and other Hawaiian islands. About 10 inches of rain is predicted in Honolulu, with 30-plus inches of rain possible atop the state’s volcanoes, through Saturday.

Severe thunderstorms could generate hail and damaging winds, with isolated tornadoes even possible Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances are highest for Kauai and Oahu initially, but the second disturbance over the weekend will raise odds for hail, wind and tornadoes across all islands. Significant snow accumulations are forecast for the summits of the Big Islands.

Hawaii is no stranger to heavy rain, as Mount Waialeale, on Kauai, is one of the wettest spots on Earth and averages nearly 40 feet of rain each year, according to NASA. But rainfall rates are expected to approach 2 to 3 inches per hour within the heaviest bands, too much for even tropical islands to handle without flooding.

This Kona low will have an abundance of moisture to work with. The low’s counterclockwise motion, in tandem with an anomalous clockwise-spinning high-pressure system to the east, will work to draw abundant moisture toward Hawaii from the south. It’s the same area of high pressure responsible for the spring heat wave that’s forecast to grip the Western U.S.

The moisture transport won’t stop upon reaching the island state. It will continue northeastward toward the Pacific Northwest, where a strong Pineapple Express may raise flood danger early next week.

We were in Hilo for a story that had zero to do with the parks. Visiting Volcanoes National Park again, together with the coconut bridge problem, had sent us across the island from Kona, and the plan was straightforward enough: After our long-awaited volcano visit ended, we planned to do the remaining reporting, get something to eat, and head back out to Kauai via wonderful Hilo Airport. We had not flown through Hilo in years and wanted to check it out, too, and we were glad we did. And we were not expecting Hilo itself to change anything about the day. But it did.

Hilo gave us something we weren’t expecting.

What changed it was not a museum, any paid admission attraction, or some “must-see” visitor stop. It was a public park near the airport that we could have very easily passed by.

Liliuokalani Gardens does not look that impressive from the road. There was no gate, no fee, no reservation sign, and none of the now-familiar friction that can come with so many Hawaii stops. You did not have to plan for it, book it, or have any special reason for just being there. We just showed up. And almost immediately, we had the same thought that many other locals and visitors probably would: how is this still free?

Liliuokalani Gardens still feels generous and opulent.

Not free in the sense of being modest or “nice for what it is.” Free in the sense that if this were packaged somewhere else as a formal attraction, people would pay for it without much hesitation. The gardens are spacious, beautifully kept up, and full of details that only really register once you show up and slow down. The ponds, the bridges, the stonework, the open lawns, the beautiful trees, the way the paths keep opening up to new views. Nothing about it feels slapped together or reduced to the bare minimum.

What impressed us was just how easy it felt spending time there. People were wandering, stopping, sitting, talking, exercising, and taking their time. Some sat on benches and picnicked, as we did, while others strolled along the paths without any clear destination. Nobody seemed rushed. It was clearly Hilo at its best.

More often than not, the Hawaii experience starts before you even arrive. There is planning, the fee, the booking window, the parking issues, the time slot, the shuttle, the warning signs, the whole uncomfortable low-grade sense that you are entering something managed as tightly as Hawaii deems necessary. Some of that is understandable. Some of it is probably unavoidable. But it changes the feeling of a place in Hawaii. And it turns too many stops into logistics first and enjoyment second. But not here.

Liliuokalani Gardens felt like the opposite. We could hear planes not far off landing and taking off, and still see how close we were to the airport and town, but inside the gardens, all of that fell away. What took over instead was the sound of water, the stillness around the ponds, the nesting nenes, the bridges, and the rare feeling that nobody was trying to move us along.

After we left the park and before returning to Hilo Airport, we also stopped at Rainbow Falls. That stop turned out to be a whole different story. More on that soon.

Liliuokalani Gardens dates back to 1917.

The Territorial Legislature set aside land in Hilo for a public park dedicated to Queen Liliuokalani. The gardens’ own history says the park grew out of an early Hilo push to create a Japanese garden and tea house, influenced by Hawaii’s large Japanese immigrant community and by Laura Kennedy’s 1914 trip to Japan. That history helps explain why the place feels so substantial today: it now spans 24.67 acres, including the Japanese-style garden, Moku Ola, and other connected park areas.

What Hilo exposed about Hawaii.

These places are not good only because they are free. They are just good, period. The fact that they are free only sharpens the comparison. In a state where more visitor experiences now come wrapped in fees, reservations, restrictions, and various bottlenecks, Hilo can still find ways to offer places that feel open.

That does not mean every site in Hawaii can or should work this way. Some places are too fragile, too much in demand, or too small. But Hilo is a reminder that not everything meaningful in Hawaii has to be turned into a managed product. Not every worthwhile thing needs a layer of hassle between the visitor and Hawaii itself.

We did not go to Hilo looking for a parks story at all. We were nearby because of the coconut bridge problem.

Hawaii visitors are paying more, planning more, and dealing with infinitely more rules than they used to. Sometimes that is the price of preserving what visitors came for in the first place. Sometimes, however, it reflects a broader shift in how the state now handles access, demand, and public spaces.

Hilo offered exceptional beauty without a transaction attached and access without any conditions. We could just arrive spontaneously, stay as long as we wanted, look around, and then leave on our own terms. After so many Hawaii stops built around fees, timing, and control, this is one place where the welcome doesn’t come with a price tag.

For more information, visit the Friends of Lili’uokalani Gardens website or Facebook page.

Lead Photo: © Beat of Hawaii.

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) – If you liked the weather yesterday, you can pretty much copy and paste that onto today’s forecast. It’ll be another nice day with a mix of clouds and sunshine. However, this morning, unstable clouds are moving into the windward slopes of the islands, bringing showers to mountain areas.

That will change as a really strong low-pressure system moves toward the islands and strengthens as the week goes on, with tomorrow (Monday) being a transition day. This is a serious storm system for Hawaii that will start impacting us on Tuesday and last through the weekend, bringing heavy flooding, strong and gusty winds, thunderstorms that could become severe, and five days of winter weather for the summits and higher slopes of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.

A great tool to have is our First Alert Weather App and interactive radar.

Rain/Thunderstorms

Even though the storm center is hundreds of miles away, its effects are already being felt. Thunderstorm bands are forming 500 to 700 miles from the storm’s center, and high-level clouds with embedded thunderstorms are already showing up just 150 to 250 miles west of Kauai. A super-strong jet stream (a fast-moving air current) is pushing these storm bands toward Hawaii. A Flood Watch may be issued this afternoon.

Ensemble models are in good agreement on the track and intensity of this storm. The combination of tropical moisture moving north and the way the upper atmosphere is set up will create deep, organized thunderstorms that will bring heavy showers throughout the islands. The first few days of rain will completely soak the ground. Once the soil is saturated, even lighter rain will quickly turn into runoff and cause flooding. That means the flooding threat actually gets worse later in the week, not better. Heavy rain starting Tuesday will bring 4 to 12 inches of rainfall statewide over the next five days.

Wind

Starting Tuesday, winds will shift to blow from the south and southwest as the storm system approaches. These winds will get progressively stronger through the week. By Friday through Sunday, the winds will be dangerous — strong enough to knock down trees, especially on the northern and eastern slopes of the islands’ mountains. A High Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning is likely to be issued.

The heavy rain earlier in the week will soak the ground and weaken tree root systems. When the strong winds hit, these weakened trees will be more likely to fall. Falling trees and branches will likely knock down power lines, causing power outages across the state.

On top of the strong winds, severe thunderstorms will develop as tropical moisture and southerly winds collide. These storms could be dangerous, with:

• Damaging wind gusts
• Very heavy rainfall
• Dangerous lightning

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be issued at some point during this event.

High-elevation snow and ice, along with stronger winds, are also expected over the highest elevations of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa on Hawaii Island. These conditions will likely limit road access to the observatories at summit level. Winter Storm Warnings are likely to be issued for those areas later this week.

Surf

Expect choppy conditions on east-facing shores today, then calmer surf for most of the week. North and west shores will see small, steady waves, while south-facing shores will turn rough and choppy starting Tuesday.

Get 10-minute weather updates, plus your 7-day forecast on Hawaii News Now Sunrise every weekday morning from 4:30 a.m. to 9 a.m. HST with Guy Hagi and team. Meteorologist Drew Davis will have your updates in the midday and early evenings and then Meteorologist Jennifer Robbins at 4 p.m. until 7 p.m; then at 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. on Hawaii News Now. Also on weekend mornings with Billy V & weekend nights with Ben Gutierrez.

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