Business

The Fed Isn’t Rushing to Save the Markets This Time

Published

9 months ago

April 5, 2025

The Fed Isn’t Rushing to Save the Markets This Time

The notion that the Federal Reserve will rush in to rescue investors in a crisis has comforted investors for decades. But in the big market downturn induced by President Trump’s tariffs, no Fed rescue is in sight.

Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, made that clear on Friday. The tariffs are much “larger than expected,” he said, and their immense scale makes it especially important for the central bank to understand their economic effects before taking action.

“It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy,” he said at a conference in Virginia.

In fact, I’d say, the likelihood of further market declines is much greater than the chance that the Fed will turn the markets around in the immediate future.

What U.S. stock investors have experienced until now is what’s known on Wall Street as a correction — a decline of 10 percent or more from a market peak. The correction doesn’t end, by this common definition, until the markets have turned around and that peak has been surpassed. For days, though, the market momentum has been almost entirely downward. So another dubious distinction is in sight: a bear market, which is a decline of at least 20 percent from a market top. For the S&P 500, which closed at 5,074.08 on Friday, down from its peak of 6,144.15 on Feb. 19, a bear market is already within shouting distance, a scant 2.6 percentage points away.

It would be lovely to be able to say that the stock market bottom is near, or that it has already been reached, Edward Yardeni, a veteran market watcher, said in a conversation on Friday.

“I’ve been pretty good at picking market bottoms, and I’m not shy about calling one when I see one,” he said. “But that usually has happened when the Fed has taken action. And right now, its pretty clear that Powell won’t be doing that.”

The Fed is holding back this time for good reasons. The impact of the sudden new range of tariffs imposed by the president — and the tit-for-tat tariffs announced on Friday by China that are likely to be followed by similar moves from a host of other countries — is far from clear.

But this much is certain. Tariffs are a tax, one that is likely to slow economic growth as well as raise prices. Those effects complicate the task of the Fed, which has a dual mandate: promoting full employment (and economic growth) and holding the rate of inflation down to a reasonable level.

With the Fed still battling inflation after the runaway surge in prices of 2022 and 2023, it is reluctant to lower interest rates when price increases in a range of goods could be just around the corner. And on Friday, the latest jobs report from the government showed that the economy in March remained reasonably strong. Employers added 228,000 jobs for the month, far more than anticipated, and while the unemployment rate rose slightly, to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent, there were few signs of substantial weakness.

Given that backdrop, Mr. Powell seemed to be signaling that it would take an actual slowdown, with substantial job declines, to justify rate cuts under current circumstances. Consumer confidence has declined, and an Economic Policy Uncertainty Index that is closely watched by economists and business executives has soared. But concrete data isn’t here yet. If they’re not rolled back, the tariffs are likely to take a while to result in widespread layoffs — and without strong evidence of a slowdown, the Fed may be reluctant to act.

Yet the Fed has already come under pressure from President Trump to lower interest rates. This is the “PERFECT time” for a Fed rate cut, he said on the Truth Social media platform on Friday, shortly before Mr. Powell’s speech. Maintaining Fed independence is important in the markets, and there was no indication that this overt presidential pressure had any effect on Mr. Powell’s staunch resolve to bide his time, and to lower interest rates only when and if the Fed decided it was time to do so.

So investors may need to be very patient, and to hope that changes in tariff policy occur rapidly enough in Washington to turn the markets around and, more important, avert a recession. Recessions are typically associated with wide-ranging job losses, and they cause immense hardship in the real world as well as in financial markets.

Recessions usually make bear markets much worse, Ned Davis Research, an independent financial research firm, has found. Bear markets accompanied by recessions had a median duration of 528 calendar days and a market decline of 32.8 percent, the firm has found, using Dow Jones industrial average data since 1900. Bear markets that occurred without recessions had a median duration of 224 days and a decline of 23.3 percent.

“Bear markets are unfortunate whenever they occur, but they tend to be much worse if there’s also a recession,” Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, said in an interview.

Yet the Trump tariffs, which would be the steepest in a century if fully carried out, have already set off a global trade war. The president could reverse himself, remove most of the tariffs and try to undo some of the damage, but there are no signs that he’s planning to do so. In the meantime, the chances of a recession and of further market declines have been growing.

Mr. Yardeni said that while he remained optimistic about the long-term prospects for the United States, fear, confusion and uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff policy make him less positive about the next year. The chances of “stagflation” — a dreaded combination of high inflation and a slowing economy — are now 45 percent in the next 12 months, up from 35 percent one month ago, he said, and that wouldn’t help the stock market.

Goldman Sachs says there’s now a 35 percent chance of a recession in the next year, and late in March it ratcheted down its estimate for the S&P 500, projecting a 5 percent price decline over the next three months. At the start of the year, Goldman was rampantly bullish, forecasting a 16 percent increase in the S&P 500 over the course of 2025. If the market falls much further, Goldman and other market strategists are likely to revise their estimates still lower. JPMorgan has already raised the odds of a global recession this year to 60 percent.

As I’ve pointed out in recent columns, though, bonds have been performing well this year, easing some of the pain for investors, and international stock markets have done better than the U.S. ones, although they, too, have been battered as the reality of a new world of higher tariffs has sunk in. Old-fashioned low-cost diversified investing — I practice it using index funds that track virtually all tradable global markets — has eased some of the pain this year.

But in a full-blown recession and a bear market, few people will be entirely spared. Eventually, markets rebound, and those with long horizons are likely to prosper, regardless of what happens in the next few weeks.

Some market declines are blessedly brief. But in the bear market that started in October 2007, during the great recession of that period, it took more than four years, including dividends, for investors in the S&P 500 to climb back to the peak of their holdings in that index.

Even so, it was worth hanging on, for those who were able to do so.

Since the 2007 market peak, the S&P 500 has had a total return of more than 356 percent, even including the latest market declines. Staying in the market has paid off over the long run, and it’s likely to do so again. But sticking with it, even in times like these, can be tough. You need strength and plenty of patience to be a long-term investor.

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Business

Erewhon and others shut by fire set to reopen in Pacific Palisades mall

Published

6 hours ago

December 18, 2025

Press Room

Erewhon and others shut by fire set to reopen in Pacific Palisades mall

Fancy grocer Erewhon will return to Pacific Palisades in an entirely rebuilt store, as the neighborhood’s luxury mall, owned by developer Rick Caruso, undergoes renovations for a reopening next August.

Palisades Village has been closed since the Jan. 7 wildfire destroyed much of the neighborhood. The outdoor mall survived the blaze but needed to be refurbished to eliminate contaminants that the fire could have spread, Caruso said.

The developer is spending $60 million to bring back Palisades Village, removing and replacing drywall from stores and restaurants. Dirt from the outdoor areas is also being replaced.

Demolition is complete and the tenants’ spaces are now being restored, Caruso said.

“It was not a requirement to do that from a scientific standpoint,” he said. “But it was important to me to be able to tell guests that the property is safe and clean.”

Erewhon’s store was taken down to the studs and is being reconfigured with a larger outdoor seating area for dining and events.

When it opens its doors sometime next year, it will be the only grocer in the heart of the fire-ravaged neighborhood.

The announcement of Erewhon’s comeback marks a milestone in the recovery of Pacific Palisades and signals renewed investment in restoring essential neighborhood services and supporting the community’s long-term economic health, Caruso said.

A photograph of the exterior of Erewhon in Pacific Palisades in 2024.

(Kailyn Brown/Los Angeles Times)

“They are one of the sexiest supermarkets in the world now and they are in high demand,” he said. “Their committing to reopening is a big statement on the future of the Palisades and their belief that it’s going to be back stronger than ever.”

Caruso previously attributed the mall’s survival to the hard work of private firefighters and the fire-resistant materials used in the mall’s construction. The $200-million shopping and dining center opened in 2018 with a movie theater and a roster of upmarket tenants, including Erewhon.

“We’re honored to join the incredible effort underway at Palisades Village,” Erewhon Chief Executive Tony Antoci said in a statement. “Reopening is a meaningful way for us to contribute to the healing and renewal of this neighborhood.”

Erewhon has cultivated a following of shoppers who visit daily to grab a prepared meal or one of its celebrity-backed $20 smoothies.

The privately held company doesn’t share financial figures, but has said its all-day cafes occupy roughly 30% of its floor space and serve 100,000 customers each week.

Erewhon has also branched out beyond selling groceries.

Its fast-growing private-label line now includes Erewhon-branded apparel, bags, candles, nutritional supplements and bath and body products.

Erewhon will also open new stores in West Hollywood in February, in Glendale in May and at Caruso’s The Lakes at Thousand Oaks mall in July 2026.

About 90% of the tenants are expected to return to the mall when it reopens, Caruso said, including restaurants Angelini Ristorante & Bar and Hank’s. Local chef Nancy Silverton has agreed to move in with a new Italian steakhouse called Spacca Tutto.

In May, Pacific Palisades-based fashion designer Elyse Walker said she would reopen her eponymous store in Palisades Village after losing her 25-year flagship location on Antioch Street in the inferno.

Fashion designer Elyse Walker announced the reopening of her flagship store

“People who live in the Palisades don’t want to leave,” Walker said at the time. “It’s a magical place.”

Caruso carried on annual holiday traditions at Palisades Village this year, including the lighting of a 50-foot Christmas tree for hundreds of celebrants Dec. 5. On Sunday evening, leaders from the Chabad Jewish Community Center of Pacific Palisades gathered at the mall to light a towering menorah.

A total of 6,822 structures were destroyed in the Palisades fire, including more than 5,500 residences and 100 commercial businesses, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

Caruso said he hopes the shopping center’s revival will inspire residents to return. His investment “shows my belief that the community is coming back,” he said. “Next year is going to be huge.”

Business

How the ‘Wicked’ Movies Boosted the Musical’s Broadway Sales

Published

17 hours ago

December 17, 2025

Press Room

How the ‘Wicked’ Movies Boosted the Musical’s Broadway Sales

Oct. 30, 2003

Broadway Opening

Kristin Chenoweth and Idina Menzel in the Broadway debut of “Wicked” at the Gershwin Theater.

“Wicked” is an undisputed juggernaut — one of the biggest productions in musical theater history. The stage show, by the composer Stephen Schwartz and the librettist Winnie Holzman, has grossed $1.8 billion on Broadway, and $6.2 billion globally. Worldwide, it has been seen by more than 72 million people.

But none of that was a foregone conclusion. Based on Gregory Maguire’s 1995 novel, which in turn was based on L. Frank Baum’s “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz,” the musical had a so-so reception during its pre-Broadway run in San Francisco in the spring of 2003. In New York that fall, it divided critics when it opened on Broadway at the Gershwin Theater, starring Idina Menzel as the green-skinned “wicked witch,” Elphaba, and Kristin Chenoweth as her frenemy, Glinda, a.k.a. the Good Witch of the South. (“There’s Trouble in Emerald City” was the headline on the review in The New York Times.)

“You wake up the morning after opening night, and some of those notices were pretty devastating, and you think, ‘Oh, well, this is the final word,’” Mantello said. “But then the audiences are telling you a completely different story.”

Menzel performed “Defying Gravity” at the 2004 Tony Awards, and took home the prize for best leading actress in a musical.

The production pretty quickly became a fan favorite, and over the years, audiences made the show their own. The “Wizard of Oz” base was, of course, a huge factor — the 1939 film is a much-loved American classic — but, also, the musical’s depiction of female friendship became a central part of its allure, and kept audiences returning for repeat viewings.

March 23, 2006

1,000th Broadway Performance

“Once word kicked in, it took on a life that none of us could have ever predicted,” Mantello said. “It was the audience, and not a critical consensus, that turned it into the hit that it became.”

It’s a hit! Fans waiting for Menzel’s autograph outside the Gershwin Theater in May 2004.

Menzel, the original Elphaba, won a Tony Award for best leading actress in a musical in 2004. In 2005, the day before her final performance, she fell through a trap door onstage; she couldn’t perform at her last show, but made a cameo in a red tracksuit.

Sept. 27, 2006

‘Wicked’ International

The show expanded rapidly, and now has a global footprint. The London production opened in September 2006, after the prior year’s introduction of a North American tour and a production in Chicago, where it ran for three and a half years. Los Angeles, Japan and Germany began in 2007; and Australia in 2008. In the years since, productions have run in the Netherlands, Mexico, South Korea and Brazil; productions are still running in London and South Korea, and touring in North America.

A South Korean production featured, in 2016, Jeong Sun-ah and Cha Ji-yeon.

Oct. 30, 2018

Another Milestone: 15 Years

The 15th anniversary cast included Amanda Jane Cooper as Glinda and Jessica Vosk as Elphaba.

In 2018, the show celebrated its 15th anniversary, a milestone achieved by few shows. And “Wicked” has continued to outpace its peers: It has since become the fourth-longest-running production in Broadway history, following “The Phantom of the Opera,” “Chicago” and the top-grossing show, “The Lion King.”

Sept. 14, 2021

‘Wicked’ Reopens After the Shutdown

The show reopened with Ginna Claire Mason as Glinda.

Broadway shows were closed from the spring of 2020 through the fall of 2021 because of the coronavirus pandemic. In August 2021, the touring production of “Wicked” restarted in Dallas — the first Broadway touring production to do so — and in September 2021 “Wicked” reopened on Broadway.

Dec. 7, 2022

Yes, We’re Making a Movie

The idea of adapting “Wicked” for the screen goes way back. In fact, it predates the stage musical. Universal Pictures had optioned the novel but couldn’t figure out how to turn it into a film, and agreed to let Schwartz, working with Holzman, develop it into a stage musical first. (Universal didn’t miss out; it is one of the lead producers of the stage musical, along with Marc Platt and David Stone.)

Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande rehearsing “Popular” in September 2022.

Once the stage production became a ginormous hit, the film adaptation was an inevitability, but still there were false starts, abandoned schedules and creative-team overhauls along the way. News coverage of a film adaptation began in 2010; at one point, the director Stephen Daldry was attached and a 2019 release was announced; in 2021 Jon M. Chu became the director, and the next year he said it would be split into two films.

Grande and Erivo had both become fans via the stage show. Grande saw it with her grandmother on Broadway in 2004 (and met Chenoweth backstage); Erivo saw the London production when she was a student.

Feb. 11, 2024

Marketing Saturation

The “Wicked” films’ rollout began in earnest in early 2024, with a trailer that ran during the Super Bowl, and the actresses were ubiquitous throughout that year, including in promotional spots that aired during the Paris Summer Olympics. (NBC Universal, the parent company of Universal Pictures, has the American broadcasting right to the Games.)

The marketing budgets for most Hollywood films are vastly larger than those for Broadway shows. In this case, because there are two films — one released last year and one released last month — the marketing campaigns, as well as publicity and news coverage, was doubled. The films had an estimated marketing budget of at least $125 million each — or $250 million total — along with the numerous brand partnerships that also generated a ton of attention. By contrast, the Broadway show has an annual marketing budget of about $11 million.

Nov. 22, 2024

‘Wicked: Part I’ U.S. Theatrical Release

The movies’ effect on the stage production was significant. In 2023, “Wicked” grossed $97.85 million on Broadway; in 2024 it was up nearly 15 percent, to $112.13 million, and this year it expects to be up another 13.4 percent, to $127.3 million.

The show says the effect in London has also been sizable: It expects London “Wicked” grosses this year to be up 29.4 percent over last year, and last year the grosses were up 10.5 percent over the previous year. (The show also holds a record for the highest weekly grosses in West End history, set this year during the week that included New Year’s Day.)

“It’s amazing,” Schwartz said in an interview. “Before the movies came out, I wondered what the impact would be on the show. I don’t think any of us anticipated how strong it would be. You can never plan on this kind of thing, or even hope for it, but it’s really lovely.”

Dec. 25, 2024

$5 Million on Broadway

Actors don harnesses and elaborate wings to portray the flying monkeys who become Elphaba’s allies.

The Broadway production of “Wicked” grossed $5 million over Christmas week last year (just a month after the first film’s release) — it is the first and only Broadway show to gross that much in a single week. (It was also the first show to cross the $2 million mark and the $3 million mark.)

Nov. 21, 2025

‘Wicked: For Good’ U.S. Theatrical Release

What’s next? The second movie was released just before Thanksgiving, giving a second surge for “Wicked” in all its forms, and now the year looks to be ending strong for the stage show. The Broadway production grossed more than $3 million over Thanksgiving week (by comparison, it had generally been grossing $2.3 million to $2.5 million during Thanksgiving weeks that preceded the films’ release). Just around the corner: the Christmas and New Year’s stretch, always a good period for Broadway, and this year, even more so for “Wicked.”

Broadway grosses reflect the most recent box office receipts as reported by the Broadway League. Grosses are not adjusted for inflation.

Images: Sara Krulwich/The New York Times and Universal Pictures.

Videos: CBS; Wicked Musical Korea; Broadway.com; Theater Mania; Ariana Grande; Pink News; Out; FOX; NBC; Universal Pictures.

Produced by Leo Dominguez, Hollis Johnson, Rebecca Lieberman and Josephine Sedgwick. Additional reporting by Leo Dominguez and Jeremy Singer-Vine.

Business

Senators dig into FCC chairman’s role in Jimmy Kimmel controversy

Published

18 hours ago

December 17, 2025

Press Room

Senators dig into FCC chairman’s role in Jimmy Kimmel controversy

U.S. senators peppered Federal Communications Commission Chairman Brendan Carr with questions during a wide-ranging hearing exploring media censorship, the FCC’s oversight and Carr’s alleged intimidation tactics during the firestorm over ABC comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s comments earlier this fall.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) called Wednesday’s hearing of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee following the furor over ABC’s brief suspension of “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” amid social media backlash over Kimmel’s remarks in the wake of conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s killing.

Walt Disney Co. leaders yanked Kimmel off the air Sept. 17, hours after Carr suggested that Disney-owned ABC should punish the late-night comedian for his remarks — or face FCC scrutiny. Soon, two major TV station groups announced that they were pulling Kimmel’s show, although both reinstated the program several days after ABC resumed production.

Progressives were riled by the President Trump-appointed chairman’s seeming willingness to go after broadcasters in an alleged violation of their First Amendment rights. At the time, a few fellow Republicans, including Cruz, blasted Carr for suggesting to ABC: “We can do this the easy way or hard way.”

Cruz, in September, said that Carr’s comments belonged in the mob movie “Goodfellas.”

On Wednesday, Carr said his comments about Kimmel were not intended as threats against Disney or the two ABC-affiliated station groups that preempted Kimmel’s show.

The chairman argued the FCC had statutory authority to make sure that TV stations acted in the public interest, although Carr did not clarify how one jumbled sentence in Kimmel’s Sept. 15 monologue violated the broadcasters’ obligation to serve its communities.

Cruz was conciliatory Wednesday, praising Carr’s work in his first year as FCC chairman. However, Democrats on the panel attempted to pivot much of the three-hour session into a public airing of the Trump administration’s desire to punish broadcasters whom the president doesn’t like — and Carr’s seeming willingness to go along.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) called Wednesday’s Senate committee hearing.

(Associated Press)

Carr was challenged by numerous Democrats who suggested he was demonstrating fealty to the president rather than running the FCC as an independent licensing body.

Despite the landmark Communications Act of 1934, which created the FCC, the agency isn’t exactly independent, Carr and fellow Republican Commissioner Olivia Trusty testified.

The two Republicans said because Trump has the power to hire and fire commissioners, the FCC was more akin to other agencies within the federal government.

“Then is President Trump your boss?” asked Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.). The senator then asked Carr whether he remembered his oath of office. Federal officials, including Carr, have sworn to protect the Constitution.

“The American people are your boss,” Kim said. “Have you ever had a conversation with the president or senior administration officials about using the FCC to go after critics?”

Carr declined to answer.

Protesters outside the Jimmy Kimmel Theater in September 2025.

The lone Democrat on the FCC, Anna M. Gomez, was frequently at odds with her fellow commissioners, including during an exploration of whether she felt the FCC was doing Trump’s bidding in its approach to merger approvals.

Trump separately continued his rant on media organizations he doesn’t like, writing in a Truth Social post that NBC News “should be ashamed of themselves in allowing garbage ‘interviews’” of his political rivals, in this case Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.).

Trump wrote that NBC and other broadcasters should pay “significant amounts of money for using the very valuable” public airwaves.

Earlier this year, FCC approval of the Larry Ellison family’s takeover of Paramount stalled for months until Paramount agreed to pay Trump $16 million to settle a lawsuit over his grievances with edits of a CBS “60 Minutes” pre-election interview with Kamala Harris.

“Without a doubt, the FCC is leveraging its authority over mergers and enforcement proceedings in order to influence content,” Gomez said.

Parts of the hearing devolved into partisan bickering over whether Democrats or Republicans had a worse track record of trampling on the 1st Amendment. Cruz and other Republicans referenced a 2018 letter, signed by three Democrats on the committee, which asked the FCC to investigate conservative TV station owner Sinclair Broadcast Group.

“Suddenly Democrats have discovered the 1st Amendment,” Cruz said. “Maybe remember it when Democrats are in power. The 1st Amendment is not a one-way license for one team to abuse the power.

“We should respect the free speech of all Americans, regardless of party,” Cruz said.