Culture
The 8 NFL free-agent signings with the best chance to outproduce their contracts
The first wave of NFL free agency is winding down, and there are now plenty of deals to assess.
In the team free agency rankings we released ahead of the negotiation window earlier this month, we dove into the data from the previous four years, 2021 through 2024. We logged cash spent on each free agent during that span. We also logged the value produced — using Football Reference’s Approximate Value metric — by each player while he was on his free-agent contract. By comparing these two figures, we determined how much value each free agent produced per $1 million in cash spent, or AV per million. And, in turn, we ranked teams at large by how much value they were producing per $1 million cash spent on the free agent market.
Now we can use that data to try and project the best value deals from the early returns in this 2025 free agent class. From 2021 to 2024, the league average in AV per million was .713. That is the benchmark we will use in our projections. Any player who produces more than .713 AV per million can be classified as an above-average return on investment. For reference, quarterback Russell Wilson had the highest AV per million of any free agent signed in the 2024 class. He finished with 9 AV in 11 starts for Pittsburgh. The Steelers paid Wilson just $1.21 million in cash.
What we are looking for are low-cost signings that have the chance to outperform their bargain deals.
Here are our eight best potential value deals of the first wave of free agency.
(All contract figures courtesy of Over the Cap.)
Levi Onwuzurike, IDL, Detroit Lions
2025 cash: $4 million
Interior defensive linemen got paid in this free-agent cycle. Milton Williams signed with the New England Patriots for $26 million in average per year (APY). Osa Odighizuwa returned to the Dallas Cowboys on a contract worth $20 million in APY. Javon Kinlaw got $15 million in APY from the Washington Commanders, while Tershawn Wharton got just over $15 million in APY from the Carolina Panthers. Onwuzurike had more pressures (47) and a higher pass rush win percentage (11.9) than both Wharton and Kinlaw in 2024, according to Pro Football Focus. He returned to the Lions on a far cheaper deal.
Onwuzurike only finished the season with 1 1/2 sacks, and perhaps that lack of box score production affected his market. But the upside here feels tremendous if Onwuzurike can maintain his level of pressure. An AV per million above 2.0 seems well in reach. Only 34 free agents from the 2024 class hit that number in 2024.
Joshua Uche, edge, Philadelphia Eagles
2025 cash: $1.92 million
The Eagles were the clear winners of free agency in 2024. It is no coincidence they went on to win the Super Bowl. Philadelphia received above-average AV per million returns on several free agents, including linebacker Zack Baun (4.0), running back Saquon Barkley (1.2) and guard Mekhi Becton (1.5). Baun was in the top 10 in AV per million after transitioning to off-ball linebacker and having a breakout All-Pro season.
If the Eagles are going to hit big on a 2025 free agent value signing like they did with Baun last year, Uche is a good bet. He is cheap. He had an 11 1/2-sack season with the Patriots in 2022. He will be playing alongside one of the best defensive tackles in football in Jalen Carter. And we saw in 2024 what kind of impact Carter had on his teammates, including Williams and edge rusher Josh Sweat, both of whom left in free agency. The big question with Uche is whether he can earn playing time in a deep edge rusher room in Philly. Nolan Smith Jr., Bryce Huff and Jalyx Hunt all return. The Eagles also signed Azeez Ojulari to a one-year deal in free agency.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR, Miami Dolphins
2025 cash: $3.2 million
One big theme in our AV-per-million player rankings: Low-cost receivers with a pathway to playing time tend to produce substantial returns on investment. The Washington Commanders had two receivers in our 2024 top 10: Olamide Zaccheaus (4.64 in AV per million) and Noah Brown (4.13). Zaccheaus made $1.29 million in cash and caught 45 passes for 506 yards and three touchdowns. Brown made $1.21 million in cash and caught 35 passes for 453 yards and one touchdown.
Westbrook-Ikhine fits the profile in this year’s class. He has good size at 6-foot-2, 211 pounds and is a legitimate weapon in the red zone. His skill set is a logical complement to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Westbrook-Ikhine had nine touchdowns in 2024, tied for eighth among receivers. Six of those came in the red zone, also tied for eighth.
Richie Grant, S, San Francisco 49ers
2025 cash: $1.5 million
Grant, a former second-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons in 2021, started 32 games over the 2022 and 2023 seasons. But he lost his starting job when coach Raheem Morris and his staff took over in 2024. He should have a chance to compete for a starting job with the 49ers, who lost Talanoa Hufanga in free agency. Grant will have to beat out 2023 third-round pick Ji’Ayir Brown and Jason Pinnock, who San Francisco signed to a one-year, $2.2 million deal in free agency.
If Grant wins the job and plays starting snaps, there is a clear avenue toward a high AV per million. The 49ers have a history of finding value on cheap safety contracts. In 2022, they paid $1.12 million in cash for veteran Tashaun Gipson Sr., who started all 17 games. Gipson’s 6.25 AV per million that season ranks second for any free agent during the 2021-24 window.
If Richie Grant becomes a starter for the 49ers, he could be a bargain for his $1.5 salary in 2025. (Brett Davis / Imagn Images)
Ifeatu Melifonwu, S, Miami Dolphins
2025 cash: $3 million
The Dolphins had to retool their safety room during this year’s free agency period. Jevon Holland signed a big deal with the New York Giants. Jordan Poyer, who turns 34 in April, is a free agent. The Dolphins, at least partially because of their tight cap situation, had to look for cheap answers at the position. They signed Ashtyn Davis to a one-year, $2.5 million deal and they signed Melifonwu to a slightly more expensive contract. Both of these deals have the potential for AV-per-million upside.
Melifonwu, a college cornerback who transitioned to safety in Detroit, has a higher ceiling. He has battled injuries and only played more than 10 games one time in his first four NFL seasons with the Lions. But when he played a full season in 2023, Melifonwu showed a ton of promise, including as a blitzer and in his ball production.
Najee Harris, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
2025 cash: $5.25 million
Harris is positioned to be a workhorse back for the Chargers, who cut Gus Edwards and have not yet re-signed J.K. Dobbins. Harris has not missed a game in his four NFL seasons. He has carried the ball at least 255 times and rushed for at least 1,000 rushing yards in all of those seasons. He has never finished a season with less than 6 AV. He has averaged 7.75 AV per season. This could end up being more of a base-hit signing.
If Harris can rediscover some of his rookie-year form, particularly as a pass catcher, this could become a more significant return on investment. In 2021, Harris caught 74 passes on 94 targets for 467 yards. His quarterback that season was Ben Roethlisberger. Harris produced a career-high 10 AV. The Steelers have been in QB purgatory since then, even if they got some viable production out of Wilson in 2024. Justin Herbert is quite willing to hit his check down if he has the running back to do it. Just ask Austin Ekeler.
This signing is reminiscent of the Devin Singletary deal with the Houston Texans in 2023. Singletary was entering his age-26 season and coming off his rookie deal that offseason. He was moderately productive over his first four seasons. He signed a one-year deal with the Texans and made $3.125 million in cash. That year, Singletary played all 17 games and produced 2.24 AV per million. Harris is entering his age-27 season. The cash figures are slightly elevated. But in terms of percentage of the cap, Singletary was at 1.4 percent. and Harris is at 1.9 percent.
Van Jefferson, WR, Tennessee Titans
2025 cash: $1.67 million
The Titans have some decisions to make before the start of the 2025 season, including who their starting quarterback will be. They have the No. 1 pick, which they could use on a quarterback. They could very well add another receiver in the draft. But as it stands, Jefferson has a chance to be the No. 2 option for whoever is throwing the football, behind Calvin Ridley.
This feels similar to the Zaccheaus and Brown deals, who were playing alongside No. 1 Terry McLaurin. The Commanders struck gold with quarterback Jayden Daniels. At the price, there is plenty of room for a strong return on Jefferson, who in 2021 caught 50 passes for 802 yards and six touchdowns with the Los Angeles Rams.
Cornelius Lucas, OT, Cleveland Browns
2025 cash: $3.25 million
Lucas has made a career out of being a trustworthy swing tackle. The 33-year-old has double-digit career starts on both the right and left side, but he has only started more than eight games in one season.
The Browns do not have a reliable plan for left tackle on the roster. Dawand Jones, a 2023 fourth-round pick, has landed on IR in each of his first two seasons. The team signed Teven Jenkins but he’s primarily been a guard. Jedrick Wills is a free agent. Not to mention that right tackle Jack Conklin turns 31 in August and has battled multiple serious knee injuries, most recently in 2023. If Lucas starts a bunch of games at tackle for the Browns this season, he will be high up in our AV per million rankings next March.
(Top photos of Levi Onwuzurike and Najee Harris: Jorge Lemus / NurPhoto via Getty Images and Candice Ward / Getty Images)
On Dec. 16, 1775, a girl was born in Steventon, England — the seventh of eight children — to a clergyman and his wife. She was an avid reader, never married and died in 1817, at the age of 41. But in just those few decades, Jane Austen changed the world.
Her novels have had an outsize influence in the centuries since her death. Not only are the books themselves beloved — as sharply observed portraits of British society, revolutionary narrative projects and deliciously satisfying romances — but the stories she created have so permeated culture that people around the world care deeply about Elizabeth Bennet and Mr. Darcy, even if they’ve never actually read “Pride and Prejudice.”
With her 250th birthday this year, the Austen Industrial Complex has kicked into high gear with festivals, parades, museum exhibits, concerts and all manner of merch, ranging from the classily apt to the flamboyantly absurd. The words “Jane mania” have been used; so has “exh-Aust-ion.”
How to capture this brief life, and the blazing impact that has spread across the globe in her wake? Without further ado: a mere sampling of the wealth, wonder and weirdness Austen has brought to our lives. After all, your semiquincentennial doesn’t come around every day.
By ‘A Lady’
Austen published just four novels in her lifetime: “Sense and Sensibility” (1811), “Pride and Prejudice” (1813), “Mansfield Park” (1814) and “Emma” (1815). All of them were published anonymously, with the author credited simply as “A Lady.” (If you’re in New York, you can see this first edition for yourself at the Grolier Club through Feb. 14.)
Where the Magic Happened
Placed near a window for light, this diminutive walnut table was, according to family lore, where the author did much of her writing. It is now in the possession of the Jane Austen Society.
An Iconic Accessory
Few of Austen’s personal artifacts remain, contributing to the author’s mystique. One of them is this turquoise ring, which passed to her sister-in-law and then her niece after her death. In 2012, the ring was put up for auction and bought by the “American Idol” champion Kelly Clarkson. This caused quite a stir in England; British officials were loath to let such an important cultural artifact leave the country’s borders. Jane Austen’s House, the museum now based in the writer’s Hampshire home, launched a crowdfunding campaign to Bring the Ring Home and bought the piece from Clarkson. The real ring now lives at the museum; the singer has a replica.
Austen Onscreen
Since 1940, when Austen had a bit of a moment and Greer Garson and Laurence Olivier starred in MGM’s rather liberally reinterpreted “Pride and Prejudice,” there have been more than 20 international adaptations of Austen’s work made for film and TV (to say nothing of radio). From the sublime (Emma Thompson’s Oscar-winning “Sense and Sensibility”) to the ridiculous (the wholly gratuitous 2022 remake of “Persuasion”), the high waists, flickering firelight and double weddings continue to provide an endless stream of debate fodder — and work for a queen’s regiment of British stars.
Jane Goes X-Rated
The rumors are true: XXX Austen is a thing. “Jane Austen Kama Sutra,” “Pride and Promiscuity: The Lost Sex Scenes of Jane Austen” and enough slash fic and amateur porn to fill Bath’s Assembly Rooms are just the start. Purists may never recover.
A Lady Unmasked
Austen’s final two completed novels, “Northanger Abbey” and “Persuasion,” were published after her death. Her brother Henry, who oversaw their publication, took the opportunity to give his sister the recognition he felt she deserved, revealing the true identity of the “Lady” behind “Pride and Prejudice,” “Emma,” etc. in a biographical note. “The following pages are the production of a pen which has already contributed in no small degree to the entertainment of the public,” he wrote, extolling his sister’s imagination, good humor and love of dancing. Still, “no accumulation of fame would have induced her, had she lived, to affix her name to any productions of her pen.”
Wearable Tributes
It is a truth universally acknowledged that a Jane Austen fan wants to find other Jane Austen fans, and what better way to advertise your membership in that all-inclusive club than with a bit of merch — from the subtle and classy to the gloriously obscene.
The Austen Literary Universe
On the page, there is no end to the adventures Austen and her characters have been on. There are Jane Austen mysteries, Jane Austen vampire series, Jane Austen fantasy adventures, Jane Austen Y.A. novels and, of course, Jane Austen romances, which transpose her plots to a remote Maine inn, a Greenwich Village penthouse and the Bay Area Indian American community, to name just a few. You can read about Austen-inspired zombie hunters, time-traveling hockey players, Long Island matchmakers and reality TV stars, or imagine further adventures for some of your favorite characters. (Even the obsequious Mr. Collins gets his day in the sun.)
A Botanical Homage
Created in 2017 to mark the 200th anniversary of Austen’s death, the “Jane Austen” rose is characterized by its intense orange color and light, sweet perfume. It is bushy, healthy and easy to grow.
Aunt Jane
Hoping to cement his beloved aunt’s legacy, Austen’s nephew James Edward Austen-Leigh published this biography — a rather rosy portrait based on interviews with family members — five decades after her death. The book is notable not only as the source (biased though it may be) of many of the scant facts we know about her life, but also for the watercolor portrait by James Andrews that serves as its frontispiece. Based on a sketch by Cassandra, this depiction of Jane is softer and far more winsome than the original: Whether that is due to a lack of skill on her sister’s part or overly enthusiastic artistic license on Andrews’s, this is the version of Austen most familiar to people today.
Cultural Currency
In 2017, the Bank of England released a new 10-pound note featuring Andrews’s portrait of Austen, as well as a line from “Pride and Prejudice”: “I declare after all there is no enjoyment like reading!” Austen is the third woman — other than the queen — to be featured on British currency, and the only one currently in circulation.
In the Trenches
During World War I and World War II, British soldiers were given copies of Austen’s works. In his 1924 story “The Janeites,” Rudyard Kipling invoked the grotesque contrasts — and the strange comfort — to be found in escaping to Austen’s well-ordered world amid the horrors of trench warfare. As one character observes, “There’s no one to touch Jane when you’re in a tight place.”
Baby Janes
You’re never too young to learn to love Austen — or that one’s good opinion, once lost, may be lost forever.
The Austen Industrial Complex
Maybe you’ve not so much as seen a Jane Austen meme, let alone read one of her novels. No matter! Need a Jane Austen finger puppet? Lego? Magnetic poetry set? Lingerie? Nameplate necklace? Plush book pillow? License plate frame? Bath bomb? Socks? Dog sweater? Whiskey glass? Tarot deck? Of course you do! And you’re in luck: What a time to be alive.
Around the Globe
Austen’s novels have been translated into more than 40 languages, including Polish, Finnish, Chinese and Farsi. There are active chapters of the Jane Austen Society, her 21st-century fan club, throughout the world.
Playable Persuasions
In Austen’s era, no afternoon tea was complete without a rousing round of whist, a trick-taking card game played in two teams of two. But should you not be up on your Regency amusements, you can find plenty of contemporary puzzles and games with which to fill a few pleasant hours, whether you’re piecing together her most beloved characters or using your cunning and wiles to land your very own Mr. Darcy.
#SoJaneAusten
The wild power of the internet means that many Austen moments have taken on lives of their own, from Colin Firth’s sopping wet shirt and Matthew Macfadyen’s flexing hand to Mr. Collins’s ode to superlative spuds and Mr. Knightley’s dramatic floor flop. The memes are fun, yes, but they also speak to the universality of Austen’s writing: More than two centuries after her books were published, the characters and stories she created are as relatable as ever.
Bonnets Fit for a Bennett
For this summer’s Grand Regency Costumed Promenade in Bath, England — as well as the myriad picnics, balls, house parties, dinners, luncheons, teas and fetes that marked the anniversary — seamstresses, milliners, mantua makers and costume warehouses did a brisk business, attiring the faithful in authentic Regency finery. And that’s a commitment: A bespoke, historically accurate bonnet can easily run to hundreds of dollars.
Most Ardently, Jane
Austen was prolific correspondent, believed to have written thousands of letters in her lifetime, many to her sister, Cassandra. But in an act that has frustrated biographers for centuries, upon Jane’s death, Cassandra protected her sister’s privacy — and reputation? — by burning almost all of them, leaving only about 160 intact, many heavily redacted. But what survives is filled with pithy one-liners. To wit: “I do not want people to be very agreeable, as it saves me the trouble of liking them a great deal.”
Stage and Sensibility
Austen’s works have been adapted numerous times for the stage. Some plays (and musicals) hew closely to the original text, while others — such as Emily Breeze’s comedic riff on “Pride and Prejudice,” “Are the Bennet Girls OK?”, which is running at New York City’s West End Theater through Dec. 21 — use creative license to explore ideas of gender, romance and rage through a contemporary lens.
Austen 101
Austen remains a reliable fount of academic scholarship; recent conference papers have focused on the author’s enduring global reach, the work’s relationship to modern intersectionality, digital humanities and “Jane Austen on the Cheap.” And as one professor told our colleague Sarah Lyall of the Austen amateur scholarship hive, “Woe betide the academic who doesn’t take them seriously.”
W.W.J.D.
When facing problems — of etiquette, romance, domestic or professional turmoil — sometimes the only thing to do is ask: What would Jane do?
A famous poet once observed that it is difficult to get the news from poems. The weather is a different story. April showers, summer sunshine and — maybe especially — the chill of winter provide an endless supply of moods and metaphors. Poets like to practice a double meteorology, looking out at the water and up at the sky for evidence of interior conditions of feeling.
The inner and outer forecasts don’t always match up. This short poem by Louise Glück starts out cold and stays that way for most of its 11 lines.
And then it bursts into flame.
“Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” comes from Glück’s debut collection, “Firstborn,” which was published in 1968. She wrote the poems in it between the ages of 18 and 23, but they bear many of the hallmarks of her mature style, including an approach to personal matters — sex, love, illness, family life — that is at once uncompromising and elusive. She doesn’t flinch. She also doesn’t explain.
Here, for example, Glück assembles fragments of experience that imply — but also obscure — a larger narrative. It’s almost as if a short story, or even a novel, had been smashed like a glass Christmas ornament, leaving the reader to infer the sphere from the shards.
We know there was a couple with a flat tire, and that a year later at least one of them still has feelings for the other. It’s hard not to wonder if they’re still together, or where they were going with those Christmas presents.
To some extent, those questions can be addressed with the help of biographical clues. The version of “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson” that appeared in The Atlantic in 1967 was dedicated to Charles Hertz, a Columbia University graduate student who was Glück’s first husband. They divorced a few years later. Glück, who died in 2023, was never shy about putting her life into her work.
But the poem we are reading now is not just the record of a passion that has long since cooled. More than 50 years after “Firstborn,” on the occasion of receiving the Nobel Prize for literature, Glück celebrated the “intimate, seductive, often furtive or clandestine” relations between poets and their readers. Recalling her childhood discovery of William Blake and Emily Dickinson, she declared her lifelong ardor for “poems to which the listener or reader makes an essential contribution, as recipient of a confidence or an outcry, sometimes as co-conspirator.”
That’s the kind of poem she wrote.
“Confidence” can have two meanings, both of which apply to “Early December in Croton-on-Hudson.” Reading it, you are privy to a secret, something meant for your ears only. You are also in the presence of an assertive, self-possessed voice.
Where there is power, there’s also risk. To give voice to desire — to whisper or cry “I want you” — is to issue a challenge and admit vulnerability. It’s a declaration of conquest and a promise of surrender.
What happens next? That’s up to you.
Cold weather can serve as a plot point or emphasize the mood of a scene, and this week’s literary geography quiz highlights the locations of recent novels that work winter conditions right into the story. Even if you aren’t familiar with the book, the questions offer an additional hint about the setting. To play, just make your selection in the multiple-choice list and the correct answer will be revealed. At the end of the quiz, you’ll find links to the books if you’d like to do further reading.
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