• The cuts could lead to slower and less accurate forecast predictions.
• Experts warn the cuts could have severe consequences during extreme weather events.

The agency that issues warnings for floods, ice storms and wildfire danger in Oregon is short-staffed by at least 30% to 40% following a series of reductions, hiring freezes and buyouts as part of the Trump administration’s latest effort to shrink federal government.

The National Weather Service is down to roughly 60-70 employees, from a previous high of 100, in offices in Portland, Medford, Pendleton and Boise, Idaho, which forecasts for northeast Oregon.

Those who have lost jobs include meteorologists, hydrologists and technicians that maintain sensitive weather equipment.

The NWS plays a wide-ranging role in Oregon, influencing where wildland firefighters are positioned, when ships cross into the Columbia River and whether school is canceled.

In addition, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, which is based in Portland and measures snowpack and water supply across the Pacific Northwest, saw its staffing slashed 58% this month, from 12 to five employees.

Nationwide, hundreds and maybe thousands of workers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees both agencies, lost their jobs on Thursday, according to multiple reports.

As with other agencies targeted for reduction, including the U.S. Forest Service, the firings specifically affected probationary employees, a categorization that applies to new hires or those moved or promoted into new positions.

National Weather Service cuts ‘really detrimental, and dangerous’

Larry O’Neill, Oregon’s state climatologist who works closely with both agencies, said the cuts will be “really detrimental, and dangerous.”

“This is a critical public service. It plays a huge role in public safety and the economy, and it’s incredibly cheap for the benefit we get,” O’Neill said.

NRCS, which measures mountain snowpack and issues water supply forecasts used for irrigation, reservoir storage and hydropower, saw its staff slashed from 12 to five. The agency may discontinue measuring mountain snowpack by summer 2026.

“We don’t know how important these programs are until they’re gone,” O’Neill said. “There is no replacement for the type of detailed local forecasts they provide. Private industry cannot and won’t replace all the important things they do.”

Per longstanding NOAA practice “we are not discussing internal personnel and management matters,” said agency spokesman Scott Smullen. “NOAA remains dedicated to its mission, providing timely information, research, and resources that serve the American public and ensure our nation’s environmental and economic resilience. We continue to provide weather information, forecasts and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission.”

Loss of speed, accuracy a worry after staff shortages at NWS

The cuts could result in slower and less accurate forecasts, and what is possible for the agency to do, such as staffing major wildland fires and focusing on high-leverage situations, said O’Neill.

NWS produces a detailed forecast of every spot in Oregon, from the top of Mount Hood to the Alvord Desert. It operates weather radars that span the state.

Most notably, it issues warnings for weather that could impact travel or knock out power. It sounds the alarm when the river might flood or wildfire danger turns extreme. State and local government make decisions based on the forecasts.

“With these cuts, I think we’ll see delays or inaccurate forecasts come up, and that can have real world consequences,” O’Neill said. “And it has been done in such a haphazard way that it has removed some senior leadership and kind of left a void at the top with no plans to fill it that gap.”

Eyes in the storm

Last Monday, a powerful storm brought waves 60 feet high to the Columbia River Bar, the notoriously hazardous passageway between the Pacific Ocean and Columbia River. Each year, around 3,000 ships — carrying the world’s largest exports of wheat — make the crossing aided by the Columbia River Bar Pilots.

The bar pilots have long relied on NWS.

“We actually have a direct line to their office to talk to the meteorologists to get the best sense of how large the waves might get and when,” said Capt. Dan Jordan, administrator of the Columbia River Bar Pilots. “We use that information to make decisions about when to stop and restart shipping traffic. Without it, we won’t have the information to make the best decisions. Any disruption can really hurt commerce on the river.”

Meteorologists may be less able to work wildfires

NWS meteorologists regularly leave the office to work with incident command teams during major wildfires.

“I think one of the biggest impacts was that NWS won’t be able to provide meteorologists to work on incident management teams,” O’Neill said. “The bigger wildfires can create their own weather and turn deadly. NWS has trained their meteorologists specially for those roles, but if they’re this short-staffed, the concern is that they could no longer do that.”

The loss of technicians could also mean that when the weather radars go out, which does happen on a semi-regular basis, it will take longer to repair them. The loss of radar for extended periods jeopardizes accurate forecasting.

Loss of measuring snowpack, water supply

The Natural Resources Conservation Service does two key things in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest.

The first is that they maintain the SNOTEL network of roughly 300 weather stations that measure snow-water equivalent in the mountains.

The second is they produce water supply forecasts that feed into reservoir operations and determine irrigation allotments for the vast agriculture in central and eastern Oregon, and to a lesser extent the Willamette Valley.

The agency helps determine drought designations, so that farmers can apply for federal aid when conditions warrant.

O’Neill said that the SNOTEL network, at this point, would be discontinued by next year because it requires technicians to repair it, and most have lost their jobs.

“If we lose this, we’re basically flying blind as to how much water is stored in the snow in the mountains,” O’Neill said. “That impacts how reservoirs are managed and store water, and how they prepare to mitigate floods.

“We just won’t know how much water that we have, and that’s a pretty big problem in a state that depends on agriculture.”

Zach Urness has been an outdoors reporter in Oregon for 18 years and is host of the Explore Oregon Podcast. He can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on X at @ZachsORoutdoors and BlueSky at oregonoutdoors.bsky.social.