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New Jersey’s population reached a record 9.5 million in 2024, a surprise surge that was driven by international immigrants who have more than made up for a modest birth rate and long-time residents leaving the Garden State, analysts said.

The steady stream of immigrants during the past five years has given New Jersey the strongest population growth in the Northeast. And while President Donald Trump has moved quickly to crack down on immigration, experts say the influx has helped the state’s economy by adding to the labor force and sparking new businesses.

“Immigrants at all levels are an engine of growth,” said Jennifer Gordon, a professor at Fordham Law School in New York who specializes in immigration law.

New Jersey’s population, merely inching ahead for the better part of two decades, jumped 1.3% in 2024, according to U.S. Census data, placing the Garden State among the 10 fastest growing states nationwide.

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It gave Gov. Phil Murphy a chance during his recent State of the State address to tout the New Jersey economy and fire back against a perennial survey by United Van Lines that invariably shows residents leaving in droves.

“Apparently, there are far more moving vans coming into New Jersey than leaving,” he said.The van line survey might not be wrong; New Jersey continues to see more people leave than arrive from other states, according to Census data. But the survey is confined to the company’s own customers. New Jersey has made up for the loss of with a gain of 327,188 international immigrants since 2020, data shows.

New Jersey has about 2.3 million immigrants, including about 450,000 who are undocumented. They make up nearly a quarter of the state’s population, higher than the national rate of 14.3%, according to government data.

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Experts say the arrival of immigrants makes sense. New Jersey long has been a magnet for foreign-born residents who have managed to carve out a home and build a culture that in turn has attracted more immigrants.

“Diversity of the (New Jersey) population provides a strong draw for international immigrants,” said Kusum Mundra, an economics professor at Rutgers University in Newark.

Rafael Henrique, 34, is part of the wave. He recently launched Long Branch Business, a Portuguese language magazine whose advertisers include a barber shop, a butcher, a pet groomer and a transportation service.

Henrique, who lives in West Long Branch, said he arrived five years ago from his home state of Minas Gerais in southeast Brazil, following in the footsteps of a second cousin.

The Census data doesn’t show how many Brazilians live in Long Branch, but the town is dotted with Brazilian restaurants, bakeries and markets.

Henrique’s reason for moving to the Jersey Shore echoed generations of immigrants.

“Most people move for safety and to provide better living conditions for their family,” he said.

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From July 2023 to July 2024, New Jersey had a net population gain of 121,209, according to the Census Bureau data that was compiled by Rutgers University economist James W. Hughes. It was the fastest growth rate in the Northeast.

Where did the population growth come from?

• International immigration. New Jersey gained 130,692 international immigrants. For context, the state has the 11th highest overall population nationwide, but the fifth-most international immigrants.
• Birth rate. New Jersey had 101,199 births and 75,189 deaths, for a net population gain of 26,010. The state’s birth rate ranks in the middle of the pack, Hughes said, but in the long run, it isn’t high enough to replace the aging baby boomer population.
• Domestic migration. New Jersey had a net loss of 35,554 as residents left the state for new jobs, lower costs or warmer weather. The three most popular destinations, according to Census data: Pennsylvania, New York and Florida.

Despite the net loss of domestic migration, New Jersey’s housing market remains tight. The state has been attracting New York residents in particular who have been searching for more safety and space since the pandemic. And at least some New Jersey residents who bought or refinanced their homes during the pandemic at record-low mortgage rates and are unwilling to move to another home now that rates are hovering around 7%, Hughes said.

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The population growth has helped the state’s job market. New Jersey has added 176,900 jobs since February 2020, the month before the pandemic hit, a 4.1% gain. It’s slower than the U.S. job growth rate of 4.6%, but four times stronger than New York and Massachusetts, and twice as strong as Pennsylvania, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

“With declining births, with net domestic migration losses, immigration is really the only key source of population growth in New Jersey,” Hughes said.

How long that growth continues isn’t clear. With supporters concerned about the impact of immigration on taxpayer resources, President Trump in his first day returning to office declared a national emergency on the U.S. and Mexico border. He has promised massive deportations. And he signed a decree ending birthright citizenship, which is protected by the Constitution.

New Jersey on Tuesday joined 17 other states in a lawsuit challenging Trump’s birthright citizenship order.

“They are going to try and do things that make it harder for children born to undocumented immigrants to claim U.S. citizenship, even though they’re constitutionally entitled to it,” Fordham’s Gordon said. “I don’t think that’s bluster. I think the question is how much of it they’ll be able to achieve, given the large distance between saying something like that rhetorically and actually getting it done on the ground.”

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Michael L. Diamond is a business reporter for the Asbury Park Press. He has been writing about the New Jersey economy and health care industry since 1999. He can be reached at mdiamond@gannettnj.com.