California
California Wildfire Live Updates: New Fire Ignites In San Fernando Valley—As Death Toll Reaches 6
Topline
A fire erupted in western San Fernando Valley on Thursday afternoon, becoming one of five active fires in Los Angeles County as the region endures historically destructive blazes that have so far killed at least six people.
A firefighter sprays water on the Sunset fire on Vista street on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025 in Los … [+]
Timeline
California Gov. Gavin Newsom approved a request from Los Angeles County to deploy 8,000 National Guard members to the region to help combat fires and prevent looting (the sheriff’s department arrested 20 people for looting as of Thursday afternoon).
The NFL announced the Jan. 13 wild card playoff matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings will be moved from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, citing concerns for public safety.
Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna and county supervisor Kathryn Barger announced the county requested support from the National Guard, which is expected to deploy as early as Thursday evening as curfews from 6 p.m. to 6 a.m. are put in place to combat looting in evacuation areas linked to the Palisades and Eaton fires.
The Kenneth Fire began in the neighborhood of West Hills and spread to 50 acres, triggering evacuation orders for some residents in the Hidden Hills community.
The death toll from the fires reached six, according to multiple outlets, with the city of Malibu reporting its first death of a resident killed in the Palisades fire.
Biden said the federal government will pay the full cost of the disaster response for 180 days, covering the costs of things like “debris and hazard removal, temporary shelters, first responders’ salaries and all necessary measures to protect life and property” (the federal funding initially covered 75% of eligible firefighting costs).
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said the Sunset fire in the Hollywood Hills was “fully contained” after the fire began Wednesday evening and spread to 43 acres.
Los Angeles Unified School District announced its schools and offices will remain closed through Friday, adding students will continue to have access to digital academic resources, meal distribution and mental health support services.
The NBA postponed a game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Charlotte Hornets scheduled to take place at 7:30 p.m. on Thursday night at Crypto.com Arena, the NBA announced, with ESPN insider Shams Charania noting Lakers head coach JJ Redick lost his home in the fires.
Luna said he was “not satisfied” with some of the preliminary numbers he was getting regarding the death toll from the fires and he asked for patience on the subject, saying “right now, frankly, we don’t know” how many people have died, but they will eventually.
The Los Angeles Fire Department lifted the last evacuation order related to the Sunset Fire, providing some relief to residents, though it said there are still “LAFD companies working in the area” and asked people “to be careful while returning” to their homes.
Pasadena urged residents in a portion of the city to not use tap water for drinking or cooking “until further notice,” citing the Eaton Fire’s damage to reservoirs and pump stations that potentially impacted water quality in certain areas.
Los Angeles Department of Water and Power said 95,203 of its customers are without power and that the estimated time to respond to outages remains at 24 to 48 hours, noting within a statement its boil water notice remains in effect for residents in Pacific Palisades’ 90272 zip code and the adjacent area.
Biden said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, he was again briefed on the fires and would make remarks to the nation after the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter, which began at 10 a.m. EST.
The wildfires have severely impacted the air quality in the Los Angeles area with levels of PM 2.5 pollutants—airborne particles less than 2.5 microns in diameter—hitting 165, which is labeled “unhealthy” by the EPA’s AirNow tracker and 11 times above the World Health Organization’s recommended safe limit of 15.
At least 2,000 homes, businesses and other buildings have been destroyed by the fire so far, and more than 130,000 people have been forced to evacuate—some even multiple times as the fires spread to other parts of Los Angeles county.
According to the National Weather Service, the dry Santa Ana winds moving in from the northeast will “continue over Eaton Fire through the next few days, with somewhat weaker winds Thursday morning followed by increasing winds Thursday afternoon…into early Friday.”
The NWS also noted that the red flag warnings across Los Angeles and nearby Ventura County will remain in effect until 6 p.m. on Friday.
At least 250,000 homes and businesses across Los Angeles County and neighboring Ventura County remained without power on Wednesday night, according to PowerOutage.us, as the Los Angeles Department of Water & Power said its crews had managed to restore power to “more than 152,000” since the start of the fires.
After lifting the most of the evacuation zone around the Hollywood Hills fire, the LAFD urged residents to be “cautious when returning to their homes because firefighters are continuing to work in their neighborhoods,” and said areas where the evacuation order has not been lifted will remain closed until Thursday morning.
The Los Angeles Fire Department said “the majority of the Evacuation Zone for the Sunset Fire is LIFTED” in an update shortly after midnight as Cal Fire’s tracker showed the size of the blaze in the Hollywood Hills shrinking from its previous size of 60 acres to 43 acres at 12:17 a.m. PST.
City of Pasadena officials warned that the tap water in the areas that have been evacuated due to the Eaton Fire is not safe to drink and said the residents should “not try to treat the water” themselves but use bottled water instead.
Cal Fire’s latest update at 9:40 p.m. PST showed that at least 10% of the Hurst Fire has been brought under control although the blaze still continues to cover around 855 acres.
The Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department said the the “most intense fire activity” in the Hollywood hills fire is occurring on the southwestern side, while the perimeter on the eastern side is “holding well thanks to a fire road and ground crews in place.”
Cal Fire has deployed several helicopters and tankers to douse the Hollywood Hills fire, with flight tracker data showing at least six aircraft flying over the area—aerial operations had been impacted on Tuesday night and early Wednesday due to the strong winds.
The city of Santa Monica instituted a mandatory curfew from sunset to sunrise on Wednesday night “to support law enforcement efforts in these zones, and other measures to facilitate an effective response,” the Palisades Fire.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said the Los Angeles Police Department’s officers are being deployed to Hollywood “to help alleviate evacuation traffic,” as the city moves to “urgently to close roads, redirect traffic and expand access for LAFD vehicles to respond to the growing fire.”
The mandatory evacuation order triggered by the Hollywood Hills fire covers areas between the 101 Freeway on the east, Laurel Canyon on the west, Mulholland Drive on the north and Hollywood Boulevard on the south—an evacuation warning is also in effect covering remaining areas of Hollywood Boulevard and parts of Sunset Boulevard.
Another fire, called the Sunset Fire, broke out around 6 p.m. PST in the Hollywood Hills which has rapidly grown in recent hours to engulf more than 50 acres or area, prompting mandatory evacuations.
Biden canceled the final overseas trip of his presidency on Wednesday—shortly before he was set to travel to Italy and the Vatican—to stay in Washington D.C. and monitor the emergency in California.
Biden approves a Major Disaster Declaration for California, making federal funding available to those impacted by the fires in Los Angeles County.
Officials told The New York Times the death toll in the Eaton Fire rose to five after saying earlier in the day two people had died, and the Los Angeles Times reported all five deaths “occurred in and around Altadena and Pasadena.”
Santa Monica expanded its evacuation order, advising residents for all areas north of Montana Avenue from the beach to 11th Street to leave immediately, and areas to the south and east remain under evacuation warnings.
Nearly 1 million customers of electricity providers in Los Angeles County were without power, PowerOutage.us reported before it said the outage management system of Southern California Edison—the main electricity provider in the county—went offline.
The Palisades Fire in Los Angeles’ Pacific Palisades—an affluent coastal neighborhood—exploded to 15,832 acres, according to Cal Fire, making it the largest fire of the four burning in Los Angeles County as of Wednesday afternoon.
The Eaton Fire in Altadena, a small city directly north of Pasadena, grew to 10,600 acres with 0% containment, according to the Cal Fire.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass announced Los Angeles Fire Department air operations resumed after a lengthy suspension of air support began Tuesday due to high winds.
County of Los Angeles Fire Chief Anthony Marrone said at least two civilians died in the Eaton Fire, though the cause of their deaths were not disclosed.
Deanne Criswell, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said FEMA is “closely monitoring” the wildfires and has authorized additional assistance from the agency to support firefighting efforts.
The Woodley Fire began in the Sepulveda Basin neighborhood, expanding to 30 acres before being brought under control, according to The New York Times.
The Hurst Fire ignited in the suburban area of Sylmar.
Newsom declared a state of emergency, urging residents to heed evacuation orders and saying, “This is a highly dangerous windstorm creating extreme fire risk, and we’re not out of the woods.”
The Palisades Fire started in the Pacific Palisades neighborhood and resulted in about 30,000 people receiving evacuation orders as it initially spread to about 2,000 acres.
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How Big Is The Palisades Fire?
The Palisades Fire began around 10:30 a.m. local time Tuesday and burned 17,234 acres as of Thursday morning, according to the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, which issued evacuation orders for residents of the Palisades and for those living along a long stretch of the Pacific Coast Highway. Cal Fire continued to report 0% fire containment Thursday. Los Angeles Fire Department chief Kristin M. Crowley said Thursday “it is safe to say that the Palisades fire is one of the most destructive natural disasters in the history of Los Angeles,” noting preliminary reports estimate thousands of structures have been damaged or destroyed, The New York Times reported.
How Big Is The Eaton Fire?
The second blaze, called the Eaton Fire, began Tuesday evening in Eaton Canyon near the San Gabriel Mountains and grew rapidly Wednesday to cover 10,600 acres, with 0% contained as of Thursday afternoon. The Eaton Fire also triggered a round of mandatory evacuations in the nearby areas of Altadena, Pasadena and Sierra Madre. City officials said Thursday more than 1,000 structures have been damaged or destroyed in the greater Pasadena area.
How Big Is The Hurst Fire?
The Hurst Fire was reported later Tuesday night after it broke out near the Los Angeles-area suburban neighborhood of Sylmar, north of the rest of the city. Shortly after it was reported, the Los Angeles Fire Department issued evacuation orders in the area, warning of a “rapid rate of spread.” As of an 8:30 a.m. PST update Thursday, the Hurst fire covered 671 acres, as authorities contained 10% of the blaze.
How Big Is The Lidia Fire?
The Lidia Fire was first reported Wednesday afternoon, burned 348 acres and was 60% contained Thursday morning, according to Cal Fire. Anthony Marrone, fire chief for Los Angeles County, said Thursday forward progress on the fire had been stopped. LAist reported the fire, which began in the Angeles National Forest, posed such an extreme threat that the forest will remain closed for at least one week.
How Big Was The Sunset Fire In The Hollywood Hills?
The Sunset Fire, which broke out Wednesday evening, grew to engulf around 43 acres. Bass said Thursday the fire was fully contained. Evacuation orders in the area were lifted at 7:30 a.m., and LAFD advised residents returning to their homes to use caution as workers were still in the area. The fire burned near a number of Hollywood landmarks, including the popular urban hiking trail Runyon Canyon, Hollywood Boulevard and the Hollywood Walk of Fame.
How Big Was The Woodley Fire?
The Woodley Fire was first reported Wednesday morning, and fire crews were able to hold the fire to 30 acres, LAist reported. It was reported as 100% contained Thursday and officials said there were no current threats tied to it.
How Much Will The Wildfires Cost?
JPMorgan analysts led by Jimmy Bhullar estimated in a note Thursday there could be $50 billion in total damages, including $20 billion in insured losses, though they noted “estimates of potential economic and insured losses are likely to increase.” Those estimates would place the fires as the costliest in U.S. history. Jasper Cooper, vice president-senior credit officer at Moody’s Ratings, said the credit rating business expects “insured losses to run in the billions of dollars given the high value of homes and businesses in the impacted areas,” adding “commercial property losses could be significant.”
How Did The California Fires Start—and Why Are They Spreading?
A mix of extremely gusty winds, drought conditions and low humidity created conditions conducive for fires to quickly spread. The appearance of weather conditions suggestive of La Niña, a climate phenomenon linked to drier conditions and drought in southern parts of the U.S., likely played a large part in priming southern California for extreme fire conditions this week. Los Angeles in particular has seen an underwhelming amount of rain in the last eight months alongside a dry winter. The last time the city recorded over a tenth of an inch of rainfall was last May, according to the Los Angeles Times, contributing to drought. The dry conditions paired with historically strong winds gave way to this week’s fires. Wind gusts of up to 99 mph were reported near Altadena and other nearby areas early Wednesday. The National Weather service forecast wind gusts of 50 to 80 mph in parts of southern California and up to 100 mph gusts in mountains and foothills into Wednesday night. The conditions are the result of a wind pattern called the Santa Ana winds or “devil winds,” which are often fast-moving, dry and warm winds that originate inland, around Nevada and Utah, and blow toward the coastal regions of Southern California. Cal Fire is still investigating the specific causes for each of the fires blazing in Los Angeles County.
How Many Deaths And Injuries Have The Fires Caused?
The Eaton Fire has killed at least five people, multiple outlets reported Wednesday. Earlier in the day, Marrone confirmed two were killed and said there have also been a “high number of significant injuries to residents who did not evacuate.” A 25-year-old firefighter sustained a serious head injury while combatting the Palisades Fire on Tuesday, the Los Angeles Fire Department told NBC News. There were “multiple burn victims” who were treated by medical officials, though the number of people who were treated is not immediately known.
What Celebrities Are Affected By The Fires—like James Woods And Mark Hamill?
See a full list here. Paris Hilton, who wrote she had evacuated her home, reportedly lost her Malibu home to the fire. Billy Crystal and his wife Janice said they lost their Pacific Palisades home to the fire, after first moving to the location in 1979. Jamie Lee Curtis, who appeared on “The Tonight Show” on Wednesday, said she likely lost her home to the fire and wrote on Instagram calling for people to “reach out to anyone who lives in Los Angeles” to offer assistance. Eugene Levy, the Pacific Palisades’ honorary mayor, told the Los Angeles Times he fled his home and said the “smoke looked pretty black and intense over Temescal Canyon.” Meanwhile, actor Mark Hamill wrote on Instagram Tuesday that he evacuated his Malibu home, while Vice President Kamala Harris’ home in Los Angeles was put under an evacuation order, though no one was in the home at the time the order was placed, spokesperson Ernesto Apreza said.
Which Celebrities Have Donated To Relief Efforts?
Curtis, who advocated in a “Tonight Show” appearance Wednesday for people to donate to relief efforts, said on Instagram on Thursday she was donating $1 million to start a support fund for the city and people impacted by the fire. The Los Angeles Chargers announced Wednesday they were giving $200,000 to wildfire relief efforts. Bethenny Frankel’s charity also announced on Fox News on Thursday it was raising money for California wildfire victims.
Is The Hollywood Sign On Fire?
No—despite social media rumors and AI-generated images. Read more here.
Which Schools Are Closed Due To The Wildfires?
All Los Angeles Unified Schools will remain closed Friday after being shut down Thursday. Al schools under the Pasadena Unified School District will remain closed throughout the week. Several other school districts in the region also canceled classes Wednesday through Friday, including the Glendale Unified School District and Burbank Unified School District, and two other area districts—Alhambra Unified School District and South Pasadena Unified School District—closed through Thursday. Pepperdine University announced Thursday morning its undergraduate classes and the “vast majority” of its graduate classes on the Malibu campus will take place online through Jan. 19. The university’s Calabasas campus closed Wednesday, with administrators noting students with classes scheduled for Calabasas, West Los Angeles or the Irvine campuses “will receive further guidance from their deans and/or supervisors.”
Which Events And Tv Shows Are Cancelled Due To The Wildfires?
The Critics Choice Awards—slated for Sunday—were postponed due to the fires, the organization told Variety. Several other TV shows—from “Jimmy Kimmel Live” to “NCIS”—paused production (see here for a list). The Screen Actors Guild canceled it in-person awards nomination ceremony on Wednesday because of the wildfires “in an abundance of caution.” The nominations will be announced on the SAG Awards website on Thursday, the guild said. Universal Studios said its park in Hollywood would close Wednesday because of “extreme winds and fire conditions,” adding they expect to reopen on Thursday. The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences extended its voting deadline for the 97th Academy Awards by two days, according to multiple outlets. The voting period, which is now open, is set to conclude Tuesday due to the delay. The announcement of this year’s Oscar nominees will also be pushed back two days, and is now scheduled for Jan. 19.
What Other Sports Events Were Impacted By Wildfires?
The Thursday matchup between the Lakers and Hornets was postponed with no indication of a make-up date. A Wednesday night NHL game between the Los Angeles Kings and Calgary Flames at Crypto.com Arena was also postponed and has yet to be rescheduled. A women’s college basketball game featuring Pepperdine University and the University of Portland scheduled for 6 p.m. Thursday was postponed, according to the West Coast Conference. The city’s SoFi Stadium was the initial venue for the Jan. 13 NFL wild-card playoff game between the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings, but was switched to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, in the interest of public safety. The NFL did not provide any information on ticket refunds at the time of the announced change of venues.
Has The Fire Impacted Flights From Lax And Other Airports?
Los Angeles International Airport, located about 19 miles south of the Pacific Palisades, has not experienced significant flight cancellations as of Thursday morning, according to FlightAware. Just 1% of departures were canceled and 5% were delayed as of 8:55 a.m. PST. Some flights were disrupted at the much smaller Hollywood Burbank Airport: About 8% of departures were delayed and another 1% were canceled Thursday.
What Other Areas Face Fire Risks In Southern California?
The NWS issued an extreme fire weather alert—its highest designation for fire potential—from Wednesday to Thursday for a 2,356-square mile stretch of land that includes areas such as Glendale, Oxnard, Santa Clarita, Thousand Oaks and Pasadena.
Chief Critic
President-elect Donald Trump and one of his key advisers, Elon Musk, have been critical of the local government’s response to the fire since they broke out. In a Thursday post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Musk claimed “the immense loss of homes in LA is primarily due to” bad governance leading to a shortage of water and “nonsensical overregulation that prevented creating fire breaks and doing brush clearing.” Trump has also taken aim at Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, saying on Truth Social Thursday “nobody has ever seen such failed numbers before!” (referring to the Palisades Fire’s zero containment) and blamed it on “gross incompetence” by Newsom and Bass.
Further Reading
With negligible rain in 8 months, Southern California swings toward drought (LA Times)
Residents flee on foot as Palisades Fire torches hillside homes (LAist)
A California man was arrested on suspicion of committing lewd acts and exploiting minors through online platforms.
The Santa Barbara County Sheriff’s Office identified the suspect as Edward “Eddie” Alessandro Zarate, 20, of Santa Maria.
On May 28, authorities began investigating Zarate over allegations that he was communicating with underage girls online and exchanging sexually explicit material with them.
Detectives later learned that Zarate allegedly communicated with minor victims through mobile phone apps such as Whipd, Purp, Wizz and Snapchat, along with exchanging text messages.
Zarate’s profiles appeared to portray him as a juvenile.
“Once he established communication with minors, he would often encourage them to move conversations off the platform and continue communicating via text message,” the sheriff’s department said. “During these conversations, Zarate would disclose his true age and identity.”
So far, authorities are aware of two female juveniles who have met with Zarate in person and reportedly engaged in lewd acts.
He is accused of communicating with minors in multiple states including California, Florida and Illinois. In California alone, detectives believe Zarate contacted minors from Los Angeles, Oxnard, Santa Barbara, San Diego, Santa Maria, Lompoc, Paso Robles, Nipomo, Arroyo Grande and San Francisco.
“Based on the scope of the investigation, detectives believe there may be additional survivors who have not yet been identified,” authorities said.
On June 10, Zarate was arrested and booked on multiple felony charges including oral copulation with a person under 18 years of age, unlawful sexual intercourse with a minor, sending harmful matter to a minor, and two counts of possession of obscene material depicting a minor.
Anyone who may be a victim, has communicated with Zarate online or through text or has information on the case is asked to call Sheriff’s Detectives at 805-681-4150. Anonymous tips can be provided to the SBSD’s tipline at 805-681-4171 or online at SBSheriff.org.
Top universities reject Trump’s ‘compact’ over academic freedom
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Brown University, University of Pennsylvania, and University of Southern California rejected Trump’s “compact.”
To the surprise of perhaps no Californians, several California universities appeared in the top rankings of the world’s best universities in the latest U.S. News and World Report rankings released on June 16.
Of the more than 2,250 worldwide research institutions that U.S. News & World Report evaluated for this list, six California universities ranked in the top 50 globally, with an even split among Northern and Southern California institutions.
The 2026 list includes universities from more than 100 countries, with the following countries receiving the most schools in the overall rankings:
- China: 409
- United States: 275
- India: 123
- United Kingdom: 93
- Japan: 86
Did your California alma mater appear among the top global universities?
U.S. News and World Report methodology
When determining a university’s placement on the list, U.S. News & World Report considered factors more relevant to research-oriented institutions than to undergraduate-focused metrics like bachelor’s degree graduation rates.
It focused on aspects like academic institutions’ research and reputation, number of publications, the quality of publications and citations. It considers other factors, including location, campus culture, the strength of particular programs, and cost, which are also very important.
“For students seeking universities with strong academic excellence and global recognition, the Best Global Universities rankings offer an essential comparative resource,” said LaMont Jones, Ed.D., managing editor for Education at U.S. News.
“Our methodology focuses on a school’s research mission and scholarly impact, helping students identify institutions that are truly at the forefront of global knowledge creation.”
Out of the top 10 global universities, two California institutions made the list:
- Harvard University
- Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
- Stanford University
- University of Oxford
- University of Cambridge
- Tsinghua University
- University of California Berkeley
- Yale University
- University College London
- Columbia University
How did California colleges rank in U.S. News and World Report’s Best Global Universities 2026 list?
Outside of the top 10 universities, California saw a handful of other institutions rank highly on U.S. News & World Report list.
Notably, the University of California – Los Angeles just missed the top 10 list, ultimately ranking as the 11th-best global university and the second-best public institution on the list. It was beaten out as the best public institution by its academic counterpart, the University of California, Berkeley, which was ranked the 7th-best global university.
Additionally, a number of University of California schools made the top of the list, ultimately reaffirming the quality of the institutions’ public campuses across the state.
“Research from the University of California is vital to work that benefits all Americans, from breakthroughs in the treatment of Parkinson’s to the science behind previously unimagined successes in fighting cancer and the development of quantum computers that will enable the critical advances of the 21st century,” the University of California said in a press release about its rankings.
Here’s the list of California universities that made the top 100 list:
- 3. Stanford University
- 7. University of California Berkeley
- 11. University of California – Los Angeles
- 22. University of California – San Francisco
- 23. (Tied) California Institute of Technology
- 23. (Tied) University of California – San Diego
- 74. University of Southern California
- 95. University of California – Davis
- 99. University of California – Irvine
- 100. University of California – Santa Barbara
Noe Padilla is a Northern California Reporter for USA Today. Contact him at npadilla@usatodayco.com, follow him on X @1NoePadilla or on Bluesky @noepadilla.bsky.social. Sign up for the TODAY Californian newsletter or follow us on Facebook at TODAY Californian.
The most significant seismic event in California’s history – an earthquake of 7.9 magnitude – occurred in 1857 and ruptured about 225 miles on the San Andreas Fault. That earthquake, dubbed the last “Big One,” killed two people and produced shaking that lasted between one and three minutes.
Since then, California has exploded in population and been has been rattled by many major earthquakes. But Californians have also grown familiar with the existential dread of another “Big One” looming.
Researchers have long warned there will be another massive earthquake in Southern California. They just don’t know when.
A recent study says warning signs continue to grow in 2026. The San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems have reached the highest stress levels seen in the past 1,000 years, according to a study conducted at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa.
The San Andreas fault runs throughout the state, passing through San Francisco and San Bernardino, while the San Jacinto fault is in Southern California and runs through Riverside, San Diego and Imperial Counties.
Unable to view our graphics? Click here to see them.
Why the San Andreas Fault is so risky
Faults rupture on the San Andreas Fault approximately every 150 years, according to UCLA professor Jonathan Stewart, who studies earthquake engineering.
But it’s been over 300 years since the last “large rupture” occurred south of the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake, Stewart said. “As far we know it didn’t produce a large rupture since around 1690. To the present that’s a lot more than 150 years, so there’s a lot of build-up. That doesn’t mean it’s going to happen immediately, it just means there is more stress built-up.”
When the earthquake happens, it is likely to cause a lot of damage. One major concern is the state’s water systems.
“An earthquake like this would rupture most, if not all of the major aqueducts bringing water into Southern California,” Stewart said. “Most people will not be in a collapsed structure after this earthquake, but everybody’s going to be affected by water problems.”
Study highlights longstanding risk
To investigate the probability of an earthquake occurring, researchers built a physics-based simulation and fed it the earthquake history from the region. By doing so, they were able to estimate how much stress has built up along the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto fault systems.
The results suggest that catastrophe may be near.
“Right now, with stress at historically high levels across the region and more than 160 years elapsed since the last major rupture, the system is in a critically loaded state,” lead author Liliane Burkhard said.
Most importantly, the Cajon Pass, at the junction of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, could facilitate a joint rupture of the two faults. This scenario, according to the study, would probably be “significantly more damaging” than a single-fault event.
How is earthquake safety considered?
Seismic hazard assessments are critical for the safety of the millions of residents in California’s densely-populated and earthquake-prone areas.
Seismic Hazard maps show the relative hazard associated with earthquakes using information on past faults, the behavior of seismic waves and the near-surface conditions of specific locations, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
Larger values indicate a stronger level of earthquake shaking. A peak ground velocity of 269 cm/sec would correspond to extreme shaking and heavy damage. For reference, the largest ground velocity recorded in Taiwan’s 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake reached 318 cm/sec and had a magnitude of 6.7.
That earthquake killed more than 2,000 people and incurred approximately $14 billion in damage.
How do the fault lines rupture?
The San Andreas and San Jacinto faults are strike-slip faults, which typically cause horizontal displacement. Both faults comprise the geologic boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate.
If a major earthquake occurs on the San Andreas fault, it is likely to produce surface rupture, which occurs when a fault breaks through to the surface. Most earthquakes, however, do not produce surface rupture, according to USGS.
In a major rupture, strong shaking could cause severe damage near the fault and in areas built on soft or water-saturated soils, which can amplify shaking. Rupture can directly offset roads, buildings, and other structures that span the fault trace.
Although the study helps explain the risk associated with the California fault lines, Burkhard emphasized that it shouldn’t serve as a forecast.
“This is not a prediction of when an earthquake will happen,” Burkhard said. “However, studies like this are important contributions to national and global earthquake hazard research in that we are using rigorous, quantitative science to better understand the risk facing millions of people.”
Contributing: Brandi D. Addison, USA TODAY NETWORK
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