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What We’re Watching in 2025

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What We’re Watching in 2025

Andrew here. Happy New Year and happy Saturday. This morning, we’re taking a look at what may — or may not — happen in 2025. This is not an effort to crystal-ball the future so much as it is a rundown of big topics that the DealBook team and I have on our radar screen in the new year.

On this list: Changes to deal-making in the new Trump era, the future (or end) of D.E.I. efforts, the growing momentum of workers returning to the office, the evolving relationship between China and the U.S., new investments in artificial intelligence, and yes, the role of Elon Musk in all of the above. Let us know what you think. And we’ll revisit this list at the end of the year.

Deals will flow. Deal makers pretty much universally expect a flood of deals under President-elect Donald Trump after four years of pent-up activity under President Biden, whose antitrust enforcers challenged a record number of mergers. The more interesting question: Which kinds of companies will make those deals? More M.&A. in the energy sector seems probable, given Trump’s support for the industry. Bank deals could also take off: After the regional banking crisis, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the country could benefit from more mergers. Deals may also pop up to address cybersecurity concerns, the impact of GLP-1 drugs and the fierce A.I race.

Media companies will reshuffle. Media executives and their advisers have been saying for years that the industry needs a drastic overhaul to address its new reality: an overabundance of streaming options and the decline of the legacy cable industry. Deals that were effectively considered a no-go under Biden’s aggressive antitrust enforcers may finally be given a green light under a Trump administration.

Everyone is watching to see what a handful of key players do next: Will Comcast’s move to spin off its cable business inspire others, such as Warner Bros. Discovery, to do the same? Will Paramount use Larry Ellison’s deep pockets to acquire streaming businesses? Will Rupert Murdoch respond to his failed attempt to change his family trust by selling Fox, making it bigger, or trying to buy out some of his children? Will Trump allow a major media company (or his own) to buy TikTok?

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Big Tech may not catch a break. While corporate America has been anticipating a longer leash under the Trump administration, Silicon Valley giants may still face a lot of scrutiny. Several of Trump’s picks to lead key regulators — Andrew Ferguson at the Federal Trade Commission, Gail Slater at the Justice Department’s antitrust division and Brendan Carr of the Federal Communications Commission — are expected to keep looking closely at Big Tech.

Unlike Lina Khan, the outgoing F.T.C. chief whose lawsuits fighting tech giants’ market power came from a progressive perspective, many of Trump’s picks have accused companies like Google and Meta of silencing conservative voices.

What will Elon Musk do with his power? The tech billionaire has been one of the most influential and omnipresent voices in Trump’s ear since the election, and his perch as co-head of the Department of Government Efficiency potentially gives him great sway — some critics say too much — over government agencies that fear budget cuts.

But the extent of Musk’s agenda remains unclear. He has already fought longtime Trump allies in defense of the skilled-worker visa program known as H-1B, a battle that he appears to have won for now. He’s also likely to push for further deregulation and more openness when it comes to A.I. and crypto. One unknown: how Musk, who sells a lot of Teslas in China, will weigh in on Beijing policy.

Executives want employees back in the office — and politics out of it. Starting this month, many of Amazon’s corporate staff members were required to work from the office five days a week, up from three days a week previously. The tech company’s return-to-office mandate caused waves and there are signs that office attendance across industries is ticking up.

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But remote work remains prevalent, with about 30 million workers in hybrid or fully remote arrangements. Will other big tech companies follow Amazon’s lead in 2025?

Along with office attendance, executives are increasingly cracking down on employee activism. Starbucks sued a union that represents some of its workers after local affiliates posted pro-Palestinian social media posts (the union sued back). After Google fired dozens of employees last year over protests related to the company’s cloud computing contract with the Israeli government, the Google C.E.O., Sundar Pichai, told employees that work was not a place to “fight over disruptive issues or debate politics.” The sentiment seems to be catching on: Big tech companies that saw protests after Trump was elected in 2016 were silent after he was elected in 2024. Will the quiet continue?

D.E.I. will fight for its life. In 2024, the programs were attacked by lawsuits, activists such as Robby Starbuck and conservative lawmakers. As companies prepare for a Trump administration, some, like JetBlue and Molson Coors, have flagged diversity, equity and inclusion policies as a risk factor in their security filings. Walmart, Ford Motor and Toyota have rolled back some programs, and others are rebranding their efforts without advertising it, in hopes of attracting less attention. Fewer have publicly fought back, though Costco last month challenged a proposal by activist shareholders looking to end its D.E.I. efforts.

Infrastructure will become a growing focus of the A.I. race. The fight to dominate artificial intelligence is also spurring investment in infrastructure to generate the huge amount of electricity it requires. The International Energy Agency has forecast data center energy demand could double by 2026.

Some of the tech industry’s highest-profile executives are investing. Sam Altman of OpenAI, Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates are all backing nuclear fusion start-ups. Microsoft and BlackRock launched a $30 billion fund to invest in A.I. infrastructure last year. Silver Lake, the private equity firm, is spending big on data centers.

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One name to watch this year: SoftBank. The Japanese tech investor has reportedly talked to Apollo, the private equity firm, about creating a $20 billion A.I. investment fund, and Masa Son, SoftBank’s mercurial C.E.O., is hunting for deals.

Defense tech could be in for a bumper year. Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine. Whether or not he succeeds, the defense tech industry will benefit either way. It’s already happening: Venture investment in defense start-ups soared last year, and by September had surpassed the total amount invested in 2023. Palantir, a data analytics company, was a star performer. Its market capitalization jumped almost fivefold to $180 billion in 2024, its operating margins have risen sharply and it joined the S&P 500 in September.

Others are also profiting from rising global uncertainty. Anduril Industries, a California-based defense start-up backed by Peter Thiel, the venture capitalist and Palantir co-founder, announced in August that it had raised $1.5 billion in a funding round that valued it at $14 billion. And Helsing, a German start-up that uses A.I. to process live data from the battlefield, is one of Europe’s best-funded companies.

If Trump does manage to end the war, it’s plausible that Western defense companies will find opportunities helping to build Ukraine’s military capability. If he doesn’t, more of their tech may be deployed on the ground there. Smaller, A.I.-powered companies are already testing their equipment in real time in a war where drones and other tech are playing a big role.

How will Trump take on China, and how will Beijing respond? Trump has promised to increase tariffs on goods from China, accusing Beijing and its companies of unfair competition among other things. It’s the same stance he took during his first presidency, when he ratcheted up trade restrictions with the world’s second-biggest economy.

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Much uncertainty remains about how Trump’s threats will play out once he’s in office, but Chinese companies have proven adept at finding ways around previous restrictions. Some moved final manufacturing and assembly operations to countries like Mexico, Vietnam and Malaysia so they could export directly to the United States without paying the 25 percent levy Trump imposed during his first term. Other businesses, such as Temu, the e-commerce company, set up operations in the U.S. to appear less Chinese and more American. Even after that facade faded, it’s still thriving: Temu was the most downloaded free app in Apple’s App Store in 2024.

How will Trump’s policies affect the economy? Trump’s plan to cut taxes and red tape is expected to keep G.D.P. growth steady at about 3 percent this year, and bolster American businesses’ bottom line in the short run. But his vow to impose tariffs on some of the country’s biggest trading partners on his first day in office could seriously crimp global growth in 2025.

Another pressing question is whether Trump will dismantle the Inflation Reduction Act, which would put billions of dollars’ worth of tax credits in jeopardy. That prospect has prompted even some Big Oil executives to lobby Trump hard to preserve the law.

A wild-card: inflation. Will Trump’s policies reignite it, spooking both the Fed and the so-called bond vigilantes? Keep an eye on the yield for 10-year Treasury notes, market watchers say. A spike there could force the administration to dial back its most ambitious plans to stimulate growth. Already, inflation fears have prompted the Fed to slash its forecast for 2025 rate cuts.

Thanks for reading! We’ll see you Monday.

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California crypto company accused of illegally inflating Katy Perry NFTs and fraud

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California crypto company accused of illegally inflating Katy Perry NFTs and fraud

Four years ago, California startup Theta Labs’ cryptocurrency was soaring, and its future appeared bright when it landed a partnership with pop star Katy Perry.

The Bay Area company had built a marketplace for digital collectibles known as nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, and had teamed up with Perry to launch NFTs tied to her Las Vegas concert residency. Its THETA token jumped by more than 500% in early 2021, reaching a peak of more than $15, making it one of the world’s most valuable cryptocurrencies. Later in the year, the spotlight shone on the company when it announced the Perry partnership.

“I can’t wait to dive in with the Theta team on all the exciting and memorable creative pieces, so my fans can own a special moment of my residency,” Perry said in a June 2021 news release.

Today, like many cryptocurrencies, THETA is 95% off its 2021 peak. It took a hit this week after former executives accused it of manipulating markets to dupe consumers into buying its products. On Tuesday, it was trading at less than 30 cents.

Two former executives from Theta Labs sued the startup, alleging in separate lawsuits that the company and its chief executive, Mitch Liu, engaged in fraud and manipulated the cryptocurrency market for his benefit. Liu retaliated against them after the employees refused to engage in deceptive business practices and raised concerns, the lawsuits say.

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Some of the alleged misconduct involved placing fake bids on Perry’s NFTs, engaging in token “pump and dump” schemes and using celebrity endorsements and “misleading” partnerships with high-profile companies such as Google to deceive the public, according to the December lawsuits filed in Los Angeles Superior Court.

Perry is not accused of any wrongdoing in the suit, and Theta denies the charges.

The lawsuits against Theta Labs are the latest controversy to rattle an industry beset by scandals.

Cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed, and its founder, Samuel Bankman-Fried, was sentenced to 25 years in prison in 2024 after being found guilty of multiple fraud charges. Binance founder and former Chief Executive Changpeng Zhao also got prison time after he pleaded guilty to violating money laundering laws, but President Trump pardoned him this year.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission previously charged celebrities such as Kim Kardashian, Lindsay Lohan, Jake Paul and Ne-Yo for promoting crypto without disclosing they were paid to do so.

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Theta Labs created a network that rewarded people with cryptocurrency for contributing spare bandwidth and computing power to enhance video streaming and lower content delivery costs. The company describes Theta Network as a “blockchain-powered decentralized cloud for AI, media and entertainment.” The network has two tokens: THETA, used to secure the network, and TFUEL, used to pay users for services and power operations.

The whistleblowers suing Theta Labs are Jerry Kowal, its former head of content, and Andrea Berry, previously the company’s head of business development.

“Liu used Theta Labs as his personal trading vehicle, perpetrating fraud, self-dealing, and market manipulation,” said Mark Mermelstein, Kowal’s attorney, in a statement. “His calculated ‘pump-and-dump’ schemes repeatedly wiped out employee and investor value. This suit is about demanding accountability and proving no one is above the law.”

Theta, Liu and its parent company, Sliver VR Technologies, deny the allegations and “intend to prove with evidence the fallacy of the stories being told in the lawsuits,” according to Kronenberger Rosenfeld, the law firm representing the defendants. The lawsuits are an attempt to paint the company in a negative light in hopes of securing a settlement, a lawyer for the firm said.

Kowal has sued his former employers before. In 2014, he accused Netflix of spreading false claims that he stole confidential information and Amazon of wrongful termination.

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The latest lawsuits allege that Liu profited from buying and selling THETA tokens using insider knowledge about partnerships with celebrities, studios and others in the entertainment industry.

“Liu’s true motive in pursuing such partnerships was not to develop a sustainable content business but to generate publicity that could be used to artificially inflate token prices for Liu’s personal gain,” Kowal’s lawsuit says.

Kowal worked for Theta from 2020 to 2025.

In 2020, Liu traded and sold tokens knowing that the company would close a content licensing deal with MGM Studios, according to the lawsuit. After the deal’s announcement, THETA token’s market capitalization increased by more than $50 million in just 24 hours, the lawsuit says.

When NFTs started to take off in 2021, Kowal closed deals with high-profile partners such as Perry, Fremantle Media and Resorts World Las Vegas for the startup’s NFT marketplace.

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As part of the deal with Perry, the singer received $8.5 million and additional warrants for the right to license her image and likeness for the NFTs.

To inflate the price and demand for these digital collectibles, Liu allegedly made bids on NFTs and directed employees to do the same. This led to people overpaying for the Perry NFTs.

Representatives for Perry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Multiple examples of alleged manipulation are outlined in the lawsuits. In one instance from 2022, the startup launched a new token called TDROP that employees also received as part of a bonus.

Liu gained control of 43% of the supply of the cryptocurrency, according to Kowal’s lawsuit. When the TDROP token reached a high, he then sold the token, and its price collapsed by more than 90% within months.

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Berry’s lawsuit also alleges that Theta Labs announced “misleading” or fake partnerships with high-profile companies such as Google and entities including NASA to pump up the value of the THETA token. Theta paid for Google Cloud products but claimed it was a partner when it was a Google customer, according to the lawsuit.

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Courts rejects bid to beef up policies issued by California’s home insurer of last resort

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Courts rejects bid to beef up policies issued by California’s home insurer of last resort

Retired nurse Nancy Reed has been through the ringer trying to get insurance for her home next to a San Diego County nature preserve.

First, she was dropped by her longtime carrier and forced onto the state’s insurer of last resort, the California FAIR Plan, which offers basic fire policies — something thousands of residents have experienced at the hands of fire-leery insurance companies.

But what she didn’t expect was how hard it would be to find the extra coverage she needed to augment her FAIR Plan policy, which doesn’t cover common perils such as water damage or liability if someone is injured on a property.

She secured the “difference-in-conditions” policies from two insurers, only to be dropped by both before finally finding another for her Escondido home.

“I’ve lived in this house for 25 years, and I went from a very fair price to ‘we’re not insuring you anymore’ — and I’ve had three different difference-in-conditions policies,” said Reed, 71, who is paying about $2,000 for 12 months of the extra coverage. “And I’m holding my breath to see if I will be renewed next year.”

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Now, a Department of Insurance regulation that would have required the FAIR plan to offer that additional coverage has been blocked by a state appeals court — leaving the plan’s customers to find that insurance in a market widely considered dysfunctional.

The court ruled earlier this month that the order would have forced the plan to offer liability insurance, which was not the intent of the Legislature when it established the plan in 1968 to offer essential insurance for those who couldn’t get it.

“We appreciate that the court confirmed the California FAIR Plan is designed and intended to operate as California’s insurer of last resort, providing basic property coverage when it cannot be obtained in the voluntary market,” said spokesperson Hilary McLean.

Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara said he is “looking at all available options” following the decision. “I’ve been fighting so people can have access to all of the coverage the FAIR Plan is required by law to provide,” he said in a statement.

Lara has faced criticism from consumer advocates who’ve called for his resignation over his response to the state’s ongoing property insurance crisis.

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A FAIR Plan policy covers fires, lightning, smoke damage and internal explosions, as well as vandalism and some other hazards at an additional cost. But in addition to water damage and liability protection, it doesn’t cover such common perils as theft and the damage caused by trees falling on a house.

The demand for the additional coverage — commonly referred to as a “wrap-around” policy — has become even greater than in 2021 when Lara issued the order overturned on appeal.

The FAIR Plan at the time had about 160,000 active dwelling policies following a series of catastrophic wildfires, including the 2018 fire that nearly destroyed the mountain town of Paradise. By September, that number had grown to 646,000.

The insurance department lists less than two dozen companies that offer wrap-around policies, including major California home insurers such as Mercury and Farmers and a a number of smaller carriers.

Broker Dina Smith said that to find the coverage for her home insurance clients she needs to place about 90% of them with carriers not regulated by the state — with the combined coverage typically costing at least twice as much as a regular policy.

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“The [market] is very limited,” said Smith, a managing director at Gallagher.

Safeco has not written California wrap-around coverage since the beginning of the year and will begin non-renewing existing policies next month. Smith also said carriers are being selective, with the ones that offer the coverage often demanding exclusions, such as for certain types of water damage.

“If I’ve got a newer home with no prior claims … for liability losses, it’s going to be easy to write. If I get a home that is built in the 1950s that might still have galvanized pipes … that’s going to be a tough one,” she said.

Attorney Amy Bach, executive director of United Policyholders, a San Francisco consumer group, said the difference-in-conditions, or DIC, market is getting just as problematic for homeowners as the overall market.

“The market is not as strong as it needs to be … given how many people are in the FAIR Plan, and there aren’t as many DIC options — with the DIC companies being just as picky as the primary insurers,” she said.

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There is also confusion about the policies, she said. Her group is considering pushing for a law next year that would clearly label the coverage so consumers better understand what they are buying.

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Student Loan Borrowers in Default Could See Wages Garnished in Early 2026

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Student Loan Borrowers in Default Could See Wages Garnished in Early 2026

The Trump administration will begin to garnish the pay of student loan borrowers in January, the Department of Education said Tuesday, stepping up a repayment enforcement effort that began this year.

Beginning the week of Jan. 7, roughly 1,000 borrowers who are in default will receive notices informing them of their status, according to an email from the department. The number of notices will increase on a monthly basis.

The collection activities are “conducted only after student and parent borrowers have been provided sufficient notice and opportunity to repay their loans,” according to the email, which was unsigned.

The announcement comes as many Americans are already struggling financially, and the cost of living is top of mind. The wage garnishing could compound the effects on lower-income families contending with a stressed economy, employment concerns and health care premiums that are set to rise for millions of people.

The email did not contain any details about the nature of the garnishment, such as how much would be deducted from wages, but according to the government’s student aid website, up to 15 percent of a borrower’s take-home pay can be withheld. The government typically directs employers to withhold a certain amount, similar to a payroll tax.

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A borrower should be sent a notice of the government’s intent 30 days before the seizure begins, according to the website, StudentAid.gov.

The administration ended a five-year reprieve on student loan repayments in May, paving the way for forced collections — meaning tax refunds and other federal payments, like Social Security, could be withheld and applied toward debt payments.

That move ushered in the end of pandemic-era relief that began in March 2020, when payments were paused. More than 9 percent of total student debt reported between July and September was more than 90 days delinquent or in default, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In April, only one-third of the 38 million Americans who owed money for college or graduate school and should have been making payments actually were, according to government data.

“It’s going to be more painful as you move down the income distribution,” said Michael Roberts, a professor of finance at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. But, he added, borrowers have to contend with the fact that they did take out money, even as government policies allowed many to put the loans at the back of their minds.

After several extensions by the Biden administration, payments resumed in October 2023, but borrowers were not penalized for defaulting until last year. About five million borrowers are in default, and millions more are expected to be close to missing payments.

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The government had signaled this year that it would send notices that could lead to the garnishing of a portion of a borrower’s paycheck. Being in collections and in default can damage credit scores.

The government garnished wages before the pandemic pause, said Betsy Mayotte, president of the Institute of Student Loan Advisors, which provides free advice for borrowers. But the 2020 collections pause was the first she was aware of, she said, and that may make the deductions more shocking for people who have not had to pay for years.

“There’s a lot of defaulted borrowers that think that there was a mistake made somewhere along the line, or the Department of Education forgot about them,” Ms. Mayotte said. “I think this is going to catch a lot of them off guard.”

The first day after a missed payment, a loan becomes delinquent. After a certain amount of time in delinquency, usually 270 days, the loan is considered in default — the kind of loan determines the time period. If someone defaults on a federal student loan, the entire balance becomes due immediately. Then the loan holder can begin collections, including on wages.

But there are options to reorganize the defaulted loans, including consolidation or rehabilitation, which requires making a certain number of consecutive payments determined by the holder.

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Often, people who default on debt owe the smallest amounts, said Constantine Yannelis, an economics professor at the University of Cambridge who researches U.S. student loans.

“They’re often dropouts or they went to two-year, for-profit colleges, and people who spent many, many years in schools, like doctors or lawyers, have very low default rates,” he said.

This year, millions of borrowers saw their credit scores drop after the pause on penalties was lifted. If someone does not earn an income, the government can take the person to court. But, practically speaking, a borrower’s credit score will plummet.

Dr. Yannelis added that a common reason people default was that they were not aware of the repayment options. There are plans that allow borrowers to pay 10 percent of their income rather than having 15 percent garnished, for example.

The whiplash policy changes around the time of the pandemic were “a terrible thing from a borrower-welfare perspective,” Dr. Yannelis said. “Policy uncertainty is really terrible for borrowers.”

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