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College Football Playoff bracket predictions: The Athletic’s national championship picks

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College Football Playoff bracket predictions: The Athletic’s national championship picks

Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? Six teams received at least one vote in our survey of 30 college football writers and editors at The Athletic, a big change from 10 years of postseason tournaments in which only four teams were in the field.

Though Oregon got a majority of the votes, plenty of variety emerged as our staff filled out their brackets ahead of the first round, which begins with Indiana at Notre Dame on Friday night. In fact, even No. 12 seed Clemson, which has three losses, got a national championship vote.

Here’s who we picked and how those predictions compare to Austin Mock’s projections model:

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First round

First round Staff Model

63.3%

71%

36.7%

29%

90.0%

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72%

10.0%

28%

90.0%

65%

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10.0%

35%

73.3%

67%

26.7%

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33%

Not surprisingly, the consensus of our 30 voters is chalk.

Per BetMGM, the better seed is favored by at least 7.5 points in every first-round game. Mock’s projections give each favorite at least a 65 percent chance to win, and our closest staff vote is Tennessee getting 11 votes to win at Ohio State in a matchup that undoubtedly presents challenges for the Buckeyes, especially after the way their offensive line played in the loss to Michigan.

Quarterfinals

Rose Bowl Staff Model

83.3%

53%

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16.7%

37%

0.0%

11%

Oregon ended up with a tough draw despite being the nation’s only unbeaten team, as it will head to the Rose Bowl to face the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee. Mock’s model gives the Ducks just a 53 percent chance of getting through. Ohio State would be a rematch, as Oregon beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thriller in Eugene in October.

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Still, 25 of our 30 voters picked Oregon to win the Rose Bowl, compared to just five for Ohio State and zero for Tennessee. Every person who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked them to win the national title.

Peach Bowl

  

Staff

  

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Model

  

80.0%

60%

13.3%

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22%

6.7%

18%

Arizona State is seeded fourth as the Big 12 champion but ranked 12th in the CFP Top 25 — nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas is the overwhelming favorite to both beat Clemson and get through the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl to advance to an in-state semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, with only four people choosing Arizona State to win and two picking Clemson.

Sugar Bowl

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Staff

  

Model

  

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53.3%

52%

46.7%

34%

0.0%

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14%

Only three of 30 voters picked Indiana to beat Notre Dame, and none had the Hoosiers pulling off two upsets and also taking down Georgia. The staff is split on a potential Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl, however: Fourteen of the 27 people to pick Notre Dame to beat Indiana also have the Fighting Irish toppling the Bulldogs.

Fiesta Bowl

  

Staff

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Model

  

53.3%

33%

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36.7%

48%

10.0%

19%

This is the least chalky part of the bracket. Most voters like Penn State to beat SMU at home, but our staff is fond of Boise State revitalizing its Cinderella status on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and Broncos (3-0) are unbeaten in the Fiesta Bowl. Here, only half of the 22 voters who picked Penn State to beat SMU also picked the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. In total, Boise State gets 16 votes to win the Fiesta Bowl to Penn State’s 12 and SMU’s two.

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Mock’s model disagrees, as it has Penn State beating both SMU and Boise State 48 percent of the time.

Semifinals

Cotton Bowl

  

Staff

  

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Model

  

66.7%

32%

16.7%

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25%

13.3%

29%

3.3%

5%

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0.0%

5%

0.0%

4%

Whoever emerges from the Oregon-Ohio State-Tennessee trio may end up with a tough draw in the semifinals in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, which would be playing close to home. Still, two-thirds of our staff likes Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, while just five opted for Ohio State, four chose Texas and one rolled with a surprise run to the national title game by No. 12 seed Clemson.

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Orange Bowl

  

Staff

  

Model

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50.0%

29%

40.0%

20%

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6.7%

26%

3.3%

11%

0.0%

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8%

0.0%

6%

Though Mock’s model puts the chances of Georgia, Penn State and Notre Dame advancing to the national title game all between 20 and 29 percent, our staff has mostly rallied around either Georgia or Notre Dame. Georgia got 15 votes to win the Orange Bowl to Notre Dame’s 12, while Penn State got just two and Boise State got one.

National championship

Going undefeated is difficult, but 17 of our 30 voters believe Oregon can run the table for a 15-0 record to become the first new national champion since Florida in 1996. It’s a big step up from the Ducks earning 10.7 percent of our preseason vote and 6.7 percent of the midseason vote.

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Only four teams received votes to win the national title in the preseason: Ohio State (57.1 percent), Georgia (28.6 percent), Oregon (10.7 percent) and Alabama (3.6 percent). That number expanded to five by midseason: Texas (50 percent), Ohio State (36.7 percent), Oregon (6.7 percent), Georgia (3.3 percent) and Clemson (3.3 percent).

Now, the field of possible national champions has been narrowed to just 12, but six teams received at least one vote to win it all. Here is a case for each of those six teams:

Oregon: Every other team has a weakness that’s been exposed at some point. The teams that present the biggest threats to Oregon — Ohio State, Texas and Georgia — looked vulnerable the last time they took the field. Oregon’s defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks have shown they can win a shootout if they have to. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I’d want if I could pick one Playoff QB to lead a deep run. — Austin Meek

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Ohio State: Ohio State put together a horrific game plan against Michigan and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I anticipate Ohio State will play much looser and put a premium on getting the nation’s best set of skill-position players into the right spots and maximizing potential mismatches to its advantage. — Scott Dochterman

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Texas: The Longhorns have the best and deepest roster. For all the attention on the quarterbacks and Texas’ offensive-minded head coach, it’s the defense that has carried the Longhorns: They allow just one point per drive, lowest in the FBS. And when the offense gets going, it makes Texas hard to beat. — Sam Khan Jr.

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Georgia: Georgia is talented, extremely battle tested (six games vs. top-16 teams), and, most importantly, will be at its healthiest all season — except for quarterback Carson Beck, of course. Also, the title game is in Atlanta. — Stewart Mandel

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Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defense will get the job done. I love how this team responded to the loss to Northern Illinois, and that will carry over into the Playoff. The Irish were written off after that loss, and Marcus Freeman’s group showed an impressive determination to move past that. — Daniel Shirley

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Clemson: Quinn Ewers has not looked 100 percent since September, Arizona State has to fly all the way to Atlanta for its quarterfinal and the winner of the Rose Bowl may be running on fumes by the semis. Ten years of CFP history have taught me that if something good can happen for Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik has been just clutch enough, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on a Justyn Ross-like late-season trajectory and I can’t help but assume Dabo Swinney has the perfect mentality for tournament football. — Eric Single

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So what matchup will we see for the national championship on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?

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Matchup Votes

Oregon-Georgia

10

Oregon-Notre Dame

8

Ohio State-Georgia

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3

Oregon-Penn State

2

Texas-Georgia

2

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Texas-Notre Dame

2

Ohio State-Notre Dame

2

Clemson-Boise State

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1

Stewart Mandel ranked all 36 possibilities after the bracket was revealed. Our 30 voters came up with eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia the most common at one-third of the vote. Twenty-seven of the 30 had at least one of Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia, including two who picked Georgia meeting Texas for the third time this season.

Special shout out to our one voter who went for the chaos bracket choice of Clemson vs. Boise State.

(Photo of Jalon Walker and Dillon Gabriel: Tim Warner, Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)

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Nick Saban questions Texas A&M crowd noise before Aggies face Miami in playoff

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Nick Saban questions Texas A&M crowd noise before Aggies face Miami in playoff

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Despite dropping their regular-season finale to in-state rival Texas, the Texas A&M Aggies qualified for the College Football Playoff and earned the right to host a first-round game at Kyle Field.

Nick Saban, who won seven national championships during his storied coaching career, experienced his fair share of hostile environments on road trips. 

But the former Alabama coach and current ESPN college football analyst floated a surprising theory about how Texas A&M turns up the volume to try to keep opposing teams off balance.

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A view of the midfield logo before the game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the LSU Tigers at Kyle Field on Oct. 26, 2024 in College Station, Texas. (Tim Warner/Getty Images)

While Saban did describe Kyle Field as one of the sport’s “noisiest” atmospheres, he also claimed the stadium’s operators have leaned on artificial crowd noise to pump up the volume during games.

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“I did more complaining to the SEC office—it was more than complaining that I don’t really want to say on this show—about this is the noisiest place. Plus, they pipe in noise… You can’t hear yourself think when you’re playing out there,” he told Pat McAfee on Thursday afternoon.

Adding crowd noise during games does not explicitly violate NCAA rules. However, the policy does mandate a certain level of consistency.

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A general view of Kyle Field before the start of the game between Texas A&M Aggies and the Alabama Crimson Tide at Kyle Field on Oct. 12, 2019 in College Station, Texas. (John Glaser/USA TODAY Sports)

According to the governing body’s rulebook: “Artificial crowd noise, by conference policy or mutual consent of the institutions, is allowed. The noise level must be consistent throughout the game for both teams. However, all current rules remain in effect dealing with bands, music and other sounds. When the snap is imminent, the band/music must stop playing. As with all administrative rules, the referee may stop the game and direct game management to adjust.”

General view of fans watch the play in the first half between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Ball State Cardinals at Kyle Field on Sept. 12, 2015 in College Station, Texas. (Scott Halleran/Getty Images)

Regardless of the possible presence of artificial noise, the Miami Hurricanes will likely face a raucous crowd when Saturday’s first-round CFP game kicks off at 12 p.m. ET.

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Veteran leadership and talent at the forefront of Chargers’ late-season surge

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Veteran leadership and talent at the forefront of Chargers’ late-season surge

Denzel Perryman quickly listed name after name as he dove deep into his mental roster of the 2015 Chargers.

Manti Teʻo, Melvin Ingram, Kavell Conner and Donald Butler took Perryman under their wing, the Chargers linebacker said. The 11-year veteran said he relied on older teammates when he entered the NFL as they helped him adjust to the schedule and regimen of professional football.

“When I was a young guy,” Perryman said, “my head was all over the place — just trying to get the gist of the NFL. They taught me how to be where my mind is.”

With the Chargers (10-4) entering the final stretch of the season and on the cusp of clinching a playoff berth heading into Sunday’s game against the Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1), veterans have played an important role in the team winning six of its last seven games.

A win over the Cowboys coupled with either a loss or tie by the Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon or an Indianapolis Colts loss or tie on Monday night would secure a playoff berth for the Chargers.

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Perryman, who recorded a season-best nine tackles in the Chargers’ win over the Kansas City Chiefs last week, credits Philip Rivers and the rest of the Chargers’ veterans for showing him “how to be a pro” a decade ago. Now he’s passing along those lessons to younger players in a transfer of generational knowledge across the Chargers’ locker room.

“When I came in as a young guy, I thought this happens every year,” safety Derwin James Jr. said of winning, starting his career on a 12-4 Chargers team in 2018. “Remember the standard. Remember, whatever we’re doing now, to uphold the standard, so that way, when guys change, coaches change, anything changes, the standard remains.”

Running off the field at Arrowhead Stadium, third-year safety Daiyan Henley charged at a celebrating Tony Jefferson, a veteran mentor at his position who was waiting for teammates after being ejected for an illegal hit on Chiefs wide receiver Tyquan Thornton.

After the game Jefferson and Henley hopped around like schoolchildren on the playground. That’s the atmosphere the veterans want to create, Jefferson said, one in which younger players in the secondary can turn to him.

“That’s what we’re here for,” Jefferson said. “For them to watch us and follow, follow our lead, and see how we do our thing.”

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It’s not just the veteran stars that are making a difference. Marcus Williams, a 29-year-old safety with 109 games of NFL experience, replaced Jefferson against the Chiefs after being elevated from the practice squad. The 2017 second-round pick played almost every snap in Jefferson’s place, collecting four tackles.

“That just starts with the culture coach [Jim] Harbaugh creates,” defensive coordinator Jesse Minter said. “It’s really a 70-man roster.”

Harbaugh highlighted defensive lineman/fullback Scott Matlock’s blocking technique — a ba-boop, ba-boop, as Harbaugh put it and mimed with his arms — on designed runs as an example of a veteran bolstering an offensive line trying to overcome the absence of Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater.

Harbaugh said his father, Jack, taught Matlock the ba-boop, ba-boop blocking technique during an August practice.

“He’s severely underrated as an athlete,” quarterback Justin Herbert said of the 6-foot-4, 296-pound Matlock, who also catches passes in the flat as a fullback.

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With three games left in the regular season, Jefferson said the focus is on replicating the postseason-like efforts they gave in consecutive wins over the Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

“It was good that they were able to get a taste of that,” Jefferson said of his younger teammates playing against last season’s Super Bowl teams, “because these games down the stretch are really what’s to come in the playoffs.”

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Rams star Puka Nacua fined by NFL after renewed referee criticism and close loss to Seahawks

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Rams star Puka Nacua fined by NFL after renewed referee criticism and close loss to Seahawks

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Los Angeles Rams star wide receiver Puka Nacua’s tumultuous Thursday began with an apology and ended with more controversial remarks.

In between, he had a career-best performance. 

After catching 12 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns in Thursday’s overtime loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Nacua once again expressed his frustration with how NFL referees handled the game.

Nacua previously suggested game officials shared similarities to attorneys. The remarks came after the third-year wideout claimed some referees throw flags during games to ramp up their camera time.

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Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints at SoFi Stadium.  (Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images)

After the Seahawks 38-37 win propelled Seattle to the top spot in the NFC standings, Nacua took a veiled shot at the game’s officials. 

“Can you say i was wrong. Appreciate you stripes for your contribution. Lol,” he wrote on X.

The Pro Bowler added that his statement on X was made in “a moment of frustration after a tough, intense game like that.”

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RAMS STAR PUKA NACUA ACCUSES REFS OF MAKING UP CALLS TO GET ON TV: ‘THE WORST’

“It was just a lack of awareness and just some frustration,” Nacua said. “I know there were moments where I feel like, ‘Man, you watch the other games and you think of the calls that some guys get and you wish you could get some of those.’ But that’s just how football has played, and I’ll do my job in order to work my technique to make sure that there’s not an issue with the call.”

But, this time, Nacua’s criticism resulted in a hefty fine. The league issued a $25,000 penalty, according to NFL Network. 

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) runs with the ball during the second half against the Seattle Seahawks Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, in Seattle.  (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

Nacua had expressed aggravation on social media just days after the 24-year-old asserted during a livestream appearance with internet personalities Adin Ross and N3on that “the refs are the worst.”

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“Some of the rules aren’t … these guys want to be … these guys are lawyers. They want to be on TV too,” Nacua said, per ESPN. “You don’t think he’s texting his friends in the group chat like, ‘Yo, you guys just saw me on “Sunday Night Football.” That wasn’t P.I., but I called it.’”

Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (12) scores a touchdown during the second half against the Seattle Seahawks Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025, in Seattle.  (AP Photo/John Froschauer)

On Thursday, reporters asked Nacua if he wanted to clarify his stance on the suggestion referees actively seek being in front of cameras during games. 

“No, I don’t,” he replied.

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Also on Thursday, Nacua apologized for performing a gesture that plays upon antisemitic tropes.

“I had no idea this act was antisemitic in nature and perpetuated harmful stereotypes against Jewish people,” the receiver said in an Instagram post. “I deeply apologize to anyone who was offended by my actions as I do not stand for any form of racism, bigotry or hate of another group of people.”

Rams coach Sean McVay dismissed the idea that all the off-field chatter surrounding Nacua was a distraction leading up to Los Angeles’ clash with its NFC West division rival. 

“It wasn’t a distraction at all,” McVay said. “Did you think his play showed he was distracted? I didn’t think so either. He went off today.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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