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College Football Playoff bracket predictions: The Athletic’s national championship picks

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College Football Playoff bracket predictions: The Athletic’s national championship picks

Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? Six teams received at least one vote in our survey of 30 college football writers and editors at The Athletic, a big change from 10 years of postseason tournaments in which only four teams were in the field.

Though Oregon got a majority of the votes, plenty of variety emerged as our staff filled out their brackets ahead of the first round, which begins with Indiana at Notre Dame on Friday night. In fact, even No. 12 seed Clemson, which has three losses, got a national championship vote.

Here’s who we picked and how those predictions compare to Austin Mock’s projections model:

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First round

First round Staff Model

63.3%

71%

36.7%

29%

90.0%

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72%

10.0%

28%

90.0%

65%

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10.0%

35%

73.3%

67%

26.7%

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33%

Not surprisingly, the consensus of our 30 voters is chalk.

Per BetMGM, the better seed is favored by at least 7.5 points in every first-round game. Mock’s projections give each favorite at least a 65 percent chance to win, and our closest staff vote is Tennessee getting 11 votes to win at Ohio State in a matchup that undoubtedly presents challenges for the Buckeyes, especially after the way their offensive line played in the loss to Michigan.

Quarterfinals

Rose Bowl Staff Model

83.3%

53%

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16.7%

37%

0.0%

11%

Oregon ended up with a tough draw despite being the nation’s only unbeaten team, as it will head to the Rose Bowl to face the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee. Mock’s model gives the Ducks just a 53 percent chance of getting through. Ohio State would be a rematch, as Oregon beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thriller in Eugene in October.

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Still, 25 of our 30 voters picked Oregon to win the Rose Bowl, compared to just five for Ohio State and zero for Tennessee. Every person who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked them to win the national title.

Peach Bowl

  

Staff

  

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Model

  

80.0%

60%

13.3%

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22%

6.7%

18%

Arizona State is seeded fourth as the Big 12 champion but ranked 12th in the CFP Top 25 — nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas is the overwhelming favorite to both beat Clemson and get through the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl to advance to an in-state semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, with only four people choosing Arizona State to win and two picking Clemson.

Sugar Bowl

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Staff

  

Model

  

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53.3%

52%

46.7%

34%

0.0%

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14%

Only three of 30 voters picked Indiana to beat Notre Dame, and none had the Hoosiers pulling off two upsets and also taking down Georgia. The staff is split on a potential Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl, however: Fourteen of the 27 people to pick Notre Dame to beat Indiana also have the Fighting Irish toppling the Bulldogs.

Fiesta Bowl

  

Staff

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Model

  

53.3%

33%

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36.7%

48%

10.0%

19%

This is the least chalky part of the bracket. Most voters like Penn State to beat SMU at home, but our staff is fond of Boise State revitalizing its Cinderella status on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and Broncos (3-0) are unbeaten in the Fiesta Bowl. Here, only half of the 22 voters who picked Penn State to beat SMU also picked the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. In total, Boise State gets 16 votes to win the Fiesta Bowl to Penn State’s 12 and SMU’s two.

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Mock’s model disagrees, as it has Penn State beating both SMU and Boise State 48 percent of the time.

Semifinals

Cotton Bowl

  

Staff

  

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Model

  

66.7%

32%

16.7%

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25%

13.3%

29%

3.3%

5%

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0.0%

5%

0.0%

4%

Whoever emerges from the Oregon-Ohio State-Tennessee trio may end up with a tough draw in the semifinals in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, which would be playing close to home. Still, two-thirds of our staff likes Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, while just five opted for Ohio State, four chose Texas and one rolled with a surprise run to the national title game by No. 12 seed Clemson.

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Orange Bowl

  

Staff

  

Model

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50.0%

29%

40.0%

20%

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6.7%

26%

3.3%

11%

0.0%

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8%

0.0%

6%

Though Mock’s model puts the chances of Georgia, Penn State and Notre Dame advancing to the national title game all between 20 and 29 percent, our staff has mostly rallied around either Georgia or Notre Dame. Georgia got 15 votes to win the Orange Bowl to Notre Dame’s 12, while Penn State got just two and Boise State got one.

National championship

Going undefeated is difficult, but 17 of our 30 voters believe Oregon can run the table for a 15-0 record to become the first new national champion since Florida in 1996. It’s a big step up from the Ducks earning 10.7 percent of our preseason vote and 6.7 percent of the midseason vote.

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Only four teams received votes to win the national title in the preseason: Ohio State (57.1 percent), Georgia (28.6 percent), Oregon (10.7 percent) and Alabama (3.6 percent). That number expanded to five by midseason: Texas (50 percent), Ohio State (36.7 percent), Oregon (6.7 percent), Georgia (3.3 percent) and Clemson (3.3 percent).

Now, the field of possible national champions has been narrowed to just 12, but six teams received at least one vote to win it all. Here is a case for each of those six teams:

Oregon: Every other team has a weakness that’s been exposed at some point. The teams that present the biggest threats to Oregon — Ohio State, Texas and Georgia — looked vulnerable the last time they took the field. Oregon’s defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks have shown they can win a shootout if they have to. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I’d want if I could pick one Playoff QB to lead a deep run. — Austin Meek

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Ohio State: Ohio State put together a horrific game plan against Michigan and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I anticipate Ohio State will play much looser and put a premium on getting the nation’s best set of skill-position players into the right spots and maximizing potential mismatches to its advantage. — Scott Dochterman

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Texas: The Longhorns have the best and deepest roster. For all the attention on the quarterbacks and Texas’ offensive-minded head coach, it’s the defense that has carried the Longhorns: They allow just one point per drive, lowest in the FBS. And when the offense gets going, it makes Texas hard to beat. — Sam Khan Jr.

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Georgia: Georgia is talented, extremely battle tested (six games vs. top-16 teams), and, most importantly, will be at its healthiest all season — except for quarterback Carson Beck, of course. Also, the title game is in Atlanta. — Stewart Mandel

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Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defense will get the job done. I love how this team responded to the loss to Northern Illinois, and that will carry over into the Playoff. The Irish were written off after that loss, and Marcus Freeman’s group showed an impressive determination to move past that. — Daniel Shirley

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Clemson: Quinn Ewers has not looked 100 percent since September, Arizona State has to fly all the way to Atlanta for its quarterfinal and the winner of the Rose Bowl may be running on fumes by the semis. Ten years of CFP history have taught me that if something good can happen for Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik has been just clutch enough, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on a Justyn Ross-like late-season trajectory and I can’t help but assume Dabo Swinney has the perfect mentality for tournament football. — Eric Single

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So what matchup will we see for the national championship on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?

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Matchup Votes

Oregon-Georgia

10

Oregon-Notre Dame

8

Ohio State-Georgia

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3

Oregon-Penn State

2

Texas-Georgia

2

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Texas-Notre Dame

2

Ohio State-Notre Dame

2

Clemson-Boise State

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1

Stewart Mandel ranked all 36 possibilities after the bracket was revealed. Our 30 voters came up with eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia the most common at one-third of the vote. Twenty-seven of the 30 had at least one of Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia, including two who picked Georgia meeting Texas for the third time this season.

Special shout out to our one voter who went for the chaos bracket choice of Clemson vs. Boise State.

(Photo of Jalon Walker and Dillon Gabriel: Tim Warner, Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)

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Keith Olbermann under fire for calling Lou Holtz a ‘scumbag’ after legendary coach’s death

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Keith Olbermann under fire for calling Lou Holtz a ‘scumbag’ after legendary coach’s death

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Former ESPN broadcaster Keith Olbermann once again incited backlash on social media Wednesday after he called late legendary college football coach Lou Holtz a “legendary scumbag” in an X post on the day Holtz was announced dead. 

“Legendary scumbag, yes,” Olbermann wrote in response to a clip of Holtz criticizing former President Joe Biden in 2020 for supporting abortion rights. 

Olbermann received scathing criticism in response to his post on X.

 

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“You’re a scumbag that needs mental help,” one X user wrote to Olbermann. 

One user echoed that sentiment, writing to Olbermann, “You’re the real scumbag here. Lou Holtz had more class, integrity, and genuine decency in his pinky finger than you’ll ever show in your lifetime.”

Another user wrote, “You’re a grumpy, lonely, Godless man. All the things Lou Holtz was not.”

Keith Olbermann speaks onstage during the Olbermann panel at the ESPN portion of the 2013 Summer Television Critics Association tour at the Beverly Hilton Hotel July 24, 2013, in Beverly Hills, Calif.  (Frederick M. Brown/Getty Images)

Olbermann has made it a pattern of sharing politically charged far-left statements that are often combative and ridiculed on social media, typically resulting in immense backlash.

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After the U.S. men’s hockey team’s gold medal win, Olbermann heavily criticized the team for accepting an invitation from President Trump to the State of the Union address. Olbermann wrote on X that any members of the men’s team who attended the event were “declaring their indelible stupidity and misogyny,” while praising the women’s team for declining the invitation.

In January, Olbermann attacked former University of Kentucky women’s swimmer Kaitlynn Wheeler for celebrating a women’s rights rally outside the U.S. Supreme Court during oral arguments for two cases focused on the legality of biological male trans athletes in women’s sports.

Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz listens before being presented with the Presidential Medal of Freedom at the White House in Washington, D.C., Dec, 3, 2020.  (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

“It’s still about you trying to find an excuse for a lifetime wasted trying to succeed in sports without talent,” Olbermann wrote in response to Wheeler’s post. 

In 2025, Olbermann faced significant backlash after posting (and later deleting) a message on X aimed at CNN contributor Scott Jennings, that said, “You’re next motherf—–,” shortly after the assassination of conservative influencer Charlie Kirk. 

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Holtz was a stern supporter of President Donald Trump, even saying in February 2024 that Trump needed to “coach America back to greatness!”

Near the end of Trump’s first term, shortly after former President Joe Biden defeated him in the 2020 election, Trump awarded Holtz with the Presidential Medal of Freedom, the highest civilian award of the United States. 

After Holtz’s death was announced Wednesday, several top GOP figures paid tribute to the coach on social media. 

Those GOP lawmakers included senators Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala.; Todd Young, R-Ind.; Tom Cotton, R-Ark.; and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C.; representatives Greg Murphy, R-N.C.; David Rouzer, R-N.C.; Erin Houchin, R-Ind.; and Steve Womack, R-Ark.; and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; Indiana Gov. Mike Braun; U.S. Education Secretary Linda McMahon; and Rudy Giuliani.

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Lou Holtz, former Notre Dame football coach, addresses the America First Policy Institute’s America First Agenda Summit at the Marriott Marquis July 26, 2022. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc)

At the time of publication, prominent Democrat leaders have appeared silent on Holtz’s passing, including prominent Democrats with a football background. 

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who worked as an assistant high school football coach; Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., who was a recruiting target for Holtz in 1986 as a college prospect; Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, who played in the NFL; and Rep. Kam Buckner, D-Ill., who played football for the University of Illinois, have not posted acknowledging Holtz’s death. 

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Stephen A. Smith called Zion Williamson a ‘food addict,’ is now feuding with the Pelicans on social

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Stephen A. Smith called Zion Williamson a ‘food addict,’ is now feuding with the Pelicans on social
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Williamson has been listed as 6-foot-6, 284 pounds since New Orleans selected him out of Duke with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft. His weight and fitness level have been regularly criticized, and the amount of time Williamson has missed because of injuries hasn’t helped (including all of the 2021-22 season following offseason right foot surgery).

After playing only 30 games last season because of a left hamstring strain and a lower back injury, Williamson reported for 2025-26 looking trim and in shape. He told reporters that he and Pelicans trainer Daniel Bove had come up with a strategy to address his fitness while rehabbing his hamstring and that he stuck to it.

“I haven’t felt like this since college, high school,” Williamson said at the time, “where I can walk in the gym and I’m like just, ‘I feel good.’”

Williamson has played in 46 of the Pelicans’ 63 games this season, already the third-most games he has played in his seven NBA seasons. In a recent interview with ESPN’s Malika Andrews, Williamson addressed how the past criticism affected him mentally.

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“I would say the most difficult point was when I missed my third year with a broken foot, and there was a lot of criticism on my weight, my care for the game, etc.,” Williamson said. “But … while people were saying what they’re saying — and everybody’s entitled to their own opinion, it is what it is — I’m in Portland rehabbing, not knowing if my foot’s gonna heal, and it was frustrating. It was very frustrating.

“I was low. I was really low because I just wanted to play basketball. I just wanted to play the game I love, but every time you turn the TV on, every time I check my phone, it was nothing but negative criticism, man. At the time, it did a lot, like I said, it did a lot, but it was a blessing in disguise, and I learned from it and I grew from it.”

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ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum questions Trump’s college sports reform meeting as potential ‘circus’

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ESPN analyst Paul Finebaum questions Trump’s college sports reform meeting as potential ‘circus’

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President Donald Trump will host a White House roundtable regarding college athletics reform later this week.

The panel is expected to include prominent coaches, college sports and pro sports league commissioners, and other professional athletes, according to OutKick.

The group will meet March 6 to examine solutions to key challenges, including NCAA authority; name, image and likeness issues (NIL); collective bargaining; and governance concerns. 

 

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President Donald Trump holds a football presented to him during a ceremony to present the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy to the US Naval Academy football team, the Navy Midshipmen, in the East Room of the White House on April 15, 2025 in Washington, D.C. (BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

The meeting Friday will include big names like Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Adam Silver and Tiger Woods. Trump has been adamant about “saving college sports,” even signing an executive order setting new restrictions on payments to college athletes back in July.

However, ESPN college analyst Paul Finebaum, who has previously hinted at a congressional run as a Republican, remains a bit skeptical.

“The easiest thing, guys, is just to say this is ridiculous,” Finebaum said to Greg McElroy and Cole Cubelic on WJOX. “And I read the other day, ‘Why is Nick Saban going?’ Why is anybody going? The bottom line is this. If something doesn’t happen very quickly, and I mean in the next short period of time, we’re talking about weeks, not years, then this thing could blow up.

“However it came about, I’m in favor of. The question now becomes, with some of the most powerful people in Washington in the same room, including the most powerful person in the country, can anything get done, or will it be a circus? Will it be just another show?”

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U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with former Alabama Crimson Tide football coach Nick Saban as Trump takes the stage to address graduating students at Coleman Coliseum at the University of Alabama on May 01, 2025 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

Trump’s order prohibits athletes from receiving pay-to-play payments from third-party sources. However, the order did not impose any restrictions on NIL payments to college athletes by third-party sources.

A House vote on the SCORE Act (Student Compensation and Opportunity through Rights and Endorsements), which would regulate name, image, and likeness deals, was canceled shortly before it was set to be brought to the floor in December.

The White House endorsed the act, but three Republicans, Byron Donalds, Fla., Scott Perry, Pa., and Chip Roy, Texas, voted with Democrats not to bring the act to the floor. Democrats have largely opposed the bill, urging members of the House to vote “no.”

President Donald Trump looks on before the college football game between the US Army and Navy at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland, on Dec. 13, 2025.  (Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)

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The SCORE Act would give the NCAA a limited antitrust exemption in hopes of protecting the NCAA from potential lawsuits over eligibility rules and would prohibit athletes from becoming employees of their schools. It prohibits schools from using student fees to fund NIL payments.

Fox News’ Chantz Martin and Ryan Gaydos contributed to this report.

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