Sports
College Football Playoff bracket predictions: The Athletic’s national championship picks
Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? Six teams received at least one vote in our survey of 30 college football writers and editors at The Athletic, a big change from 10 years of postseason tournaments in which only four teams were in the field.
Though Oregon got a majority of the votes, plenty of variety emerged as our staff filled out their brackets ahead of the first round, which begins with Indiana at Notre Dame on Friday night. In fact, even No. 12 seed Clemson, which has three losses, got a national championship vote.
Here’s who we picked and how those predictions compare to Austin Mock’s projections model:
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College Football Playoff 2024 projections: Odds to advance for all 12 teams in the bracket
First round
| First round | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
63.3% |
71% |
|
|
36.7% |
29% |
|
|
90.0% |
72% |
|
|
10.0% |
28% |
|
|
90.0% |
65% |
|
|
10.0% |
35% |
|
|
73.3% |
67% |
|
|
26.7% |
33% |
Not surprisingly, the consensus of our 30 voters is chalk.
Per BetMGM, the better seed is favored by at least 7.5 points in every first-round game. Mock’s projections give each favorite at least a 65 percent chance to win, and our closest staff vote is Tennessee getting 11 votes to win at Ohio State in a matchup that undoubtedly presents challenges for the Buckeyes, especially after the way their offensive line played in the loss to Michigan.
Quarterfinals
| Rose Bowl | Staff | Model |
|---|---|---|
|
83.3% |
53% |
|
|
16.7% |
37% |
|
|
0.0% |
11% |
Oregon ended up with a tough draw despite being the nation’s only unbeaten team, as it will head to the Rose Bowl to face the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee. Mock’s model gives the Ducks just a 53 percent chance of getting through. Ohio State would be a rematch, as Oregon beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thriller in Eugene in October.
Still, 25 of our 30 voters picked Oregon to win the Rose Bowl, compared to just five for Ohio State and zero for Tennessee. Every person who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked them to win the national title.
|
Peach Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
80.0% |
60% |
|
|
13.3% |
22% |
|
|
6.7% |
18% |
Arizona State is seeded fourth as the Big 12 champion but ranked 12th in the CFP Top 25 — nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas is the overwhelming favorite to both beat Clemson and get through the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl to advance to an in-state semifinal in the Cotton Bowl, with only four people choosing Arizona State to win and two picking Clemson.
|
Sugar Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
52% |
|
|
46.7% |
34% |
|
|
0.0% |
14% |
Only three of 30 voters picked Indiana to beat Notre Dame, and none had the Hoosiers pulling off two upsets and also taking down Georgia. The staff is split on a potential Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl, however: Fourteen of the 27 people to pick Notre Dame to beat Indiana also have the Fighting Irish toppling the Bulldogs.
|
Fiesta Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
53.3% |
33% |
|
|
36.7% |
48% |
|
|
10.0% |
19% |
This is the least chalky part of the bracket. Most voters like Penn State to beat SMU at home, but our staff is fond of Boise State revitalizing its Cinderella status on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and Broncos (3-0) are unbeaten in the Fiesta Bowl. Here, only half of the 22 voters who picked Penn State to beat SMU also picked the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. In total, Boise State gets 16 votes to win the Fiesta Bowl to Penn State’s 12 and SMU’s two.
Mock’s model disagrees, as it has Penn State beating both SMU and Boise State 48 percent of the time.
Semifinals
|
Cotton Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
66.7% |
32% |
|
|
16.7% |
25% |
|
|
13.3% |
29% |
|
|
3.3% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
5% |
|
|
0.0% |
4% |
Whoever emerges from the Oregon-Ohio State-Tennessee trio may end up with a tough draw in the semifinals in the Cotton Bowl against Texas, which would be playing close to home. Still, two-thirds of our staff likes Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, while just five opted for Ohio State, four chose Texas and one rolled with a surprise run to the national title game by No. 12 seed Clemson.
|
Orange Bowl
|
Staff
|
Model
|
|---|---|---|
|
50.0% |
29% |
|
|
40.0% |
20% |
|
|
6.7% |
26% |
|
|
3.3% |
11% |
|
|
0.0% |
8% |
|
|
0.0% |
6% |
Though Mock’s model puts the chances of Georgia, Penn State and Notre Dame advancing to the national title game all between 20 and 29 percent, our staff has mostly rallied around either Georgia or Notre Dame. Georgia got 15 votes to win the Orange Bowl to Notre Dame’s 12, while Penn State got just two and Boise State got one.
National championship
Going undefeated is difficult, but 17 of our 30 voters believe Oregon can run the table for a 15-0 record to become the first new national champion since Florida in 1996. It’s a big step up from the Ducks earning 10.7 percent of our preseason vote and 6.7 percent of the midseason vote.
Only four teams received votes to win the national title in the preseason: Ohio State (57.1 percent), Georgia (28.6 percent), Oregon (10.7 percent) and Alabama (3.6 percent). That number expanded to five by midseason: Texas (50 percent), Ohio State (36.7 percent), Oregon (6.7 percent), Georgia (3.3 percent) and Clemson (3.3 percent).
Now, the field of possible national champions has been narrowed to just 12, but six teams received at least one vote to win it all. Here is a case for each of those six teams:
Oregon: Every other team has a weakness that’s been exposed at some point. The teams that present the biggest threats to Oregon — Ohio State, Texas and Georgia — looked vulnerable the last time they took the field. Oregon’s defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks have shown they can win a shootout if they have to. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I’d want if I could pick one Playoff QB to lead a deep run. — Austin Meek
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Oregon goes unbeaten (with swagger) in first Big Ten season. And the Ducks aren’t finished
Ohio State: Ohio State put together a horrific game plan against Michigan and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I anticipate Ohio State will play much looser and put a premium on getting the nation’s best set of skill-position players into the right spots and maximizing potential mismatches to its advantage. — Scott Dochterman
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Will Howard realizes his final chapter at Ohio State has yet to be written
Texas: The Longhorns have the best and deepest roster. For all the attention on the quarterbacks and Texas’ offensive-minded head coach, it’s the defense that has carried the Longhorns: They allow just one point per drive, lowest in the FBS. And when the offense gets going, it makes Texas hard to beat. — Sam Khan Jr.
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Texas will go as far as Quinn Ewers takes it, for better or worse
Georgia: Georgia is talented, extremely battle tested (six games vs. top-16 teams), and, most importantly, will be at its healthiest all season — except for quarterback Carson Beck, of course. Also, the title game is in Atlanta. — Stewart Mandel
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A backup QB, of all people, comes to Georgia’s rescue — not detriment
Notre Dame: Notre Dame’s defense will get the job done. I love how this team responded to the loss to Northern Illinois, and that will carry over into the Playoff. The Irish were written off after that loss, and Marcus Freeman’s group showed an impressive determination to move past that. — Daniel Shirley
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How Notre Dame saved its Playoff expectations after the season’s worst loss
Clemson: Quinn Ewers has not looked 100 percent since September, Arizona State has to fly all the way to Atlanta for its quarterfinal and the winner of the Rose Bowl may be running on fumes by the semis. Ten years of CFP history have taught me that if something good can happen for Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik has been just clutch enough, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on a Justyn Ross-like late-season trajectory and I can’t help but assume Dabo Swinney has the perfect mentality for tournament football. — Eric Single
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Dabo Swinney guides Clemson back to the Playoff — fool’s gold or proof of concept?
So what matchup will we see for the national championship on Jan. 20 in Atlanta?
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
|
Oregon-Georgia |
10 |
|
Oregon-Notre Dame |
8 |
|
Ohio State-Georgia |
3 |
|
Oregon-Penn State |
2 |
|
Texas-Georgia |
2 |
|
Texas-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Ohio State-Notre Dame |
2 |
|
Clemson-Boise State |
1 |
Stewart Mandel ranked all 36 possibilities after the bracket was revealed. Our 30 voters came up with eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia the most common at one-third of the vote. Twenty-seven of the 30 had at least one of Oregon, Ohio State or Georgia, including two who picked Georgia meeting Texas for the third time this season.
Special shout out to our one voter who went for the chaos bracket choice of Clemson vs. Boise State.
(Photo of Jalon Walker and Dillon Gabriel: Tim Warner, Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)
Sports
Cubs look to build on offensive breakout against struggling Blue Jays starter Patrick Corbin
MLB faces DOJ investigation over Pride hats controversy
Major League Baseball is under a DOJ investigation following controversy over Pride-themed hats. The San Francisco Giants pitchers wrote Bible verses on rainbow caps, prompting an MLB warning and a DOJ statement questioning a ‘double standard’ for ‘Black Lives Matter’ patches versus religious inscriptions. This follows the York Revolution forfeiting a game due to players refusing Pride jerseys, highlighting free speech and religious liberty issues within sports.
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I’m glad we didn’t take the run line yesterday in the baseball game. We had the under eight for the game between the White Sox and Tigers, and it ended 4-3. The Tigers did pull off the win, but as I mentioned, it wasn’t justified that Detroit should be -250, even with Tarik Skubal on the mound. Today, we shift to the Chicago National League team as the Cubs host the Blue Jays.
The Toronto Blue Jays are a team I’ve written about probably more than most squads in the league. That’s not a complaint or anything, it just happens that I see a lot of value in their games. Most of that is because when they are favorites, they aren’t big favorites given their 37-39 record and rash of injuries to their pitching staff. When they are dogs, they are usually pretty small pups, offering little value, but that means the opposing favorite isn’t too high of a price.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning during the game between the Chicago Cubs and the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on Saturday, May 30, 2026 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images) (Ali Overstreet/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
The Jays were blitzed by the Cubs yesterday, and they will need a strong start today from Patrick Corbin. The once highly touted hurler is just 2-3 with a 4.57 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He had a decent year with the Rangers, but seems to be struggling again, as he did in his time with the Nationals. Corbin is a little more reliable on the road, given that he has pitched 10 more innings and has allowed three fewer runs on the road than at home, leading to a 3.57 ERA. He hasn’t given the Blue Jays much lately, going just 11.2 innings in three starts and allowing 11 runs on 17 hits. Cubs hitters are very strong against him, batting .316 against him.
The Cubs are one of the more frustrating teams to watch this season. Perhaps that is me just saying that as a fan of the team, but they’ve had two 10-game winning streaks, and also a losing streak of 10 games. Since May 9, the team has gone 13-24. Sure, some of that can be attributed to injuries to their pitching staff — they have only two healthy starters from the beginning of the year. But, most of this needs to be placed on the hitting of the club. Nico Hoerner is batting .238, Ian Happ is at .228, and Dansby Swanson is a pathetic .177.
Toronto Blue Jays’ Ernie Clement hits a three-run home run during the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles in Toronto on June 6, 2026. (Frank Gunn/The Canadian Press)
Still, the Cubs broke out the bats yesterday, and Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like the five-tool player from the first half of last season. If they can get some pitching, maybe they will be the dominant team we saw earlier this year. Today’s starter is Colin Rea, who has not been very good this month. He has made three starts, allowed 19 hits, and 13 earned runs over 14.2 innings pitched. He has, however, been much better at home with a 3.03 ERA in five starts (six appearances). Blue Jays hitters haven’t seen much of him, but are hitting .176 against Rea in 17 at-bats.
There is a clear player prop to play in this one. However, the bad news is that he is not on the list of options, so you might need to request or find him in a different book other than DraftKings. Michael Conforto is 12-for-36 against Corbin with seven extra-base hits, including five homers. I’d play him at 2+ total bases and at one homer as long as you can get +200 or better for the bases, and +700 for the homer prop.
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Pete Crow-Armstrong #4 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after getting hit by a pitch in the eighth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Rate Field on May 17, 2026 in Chicago, Illinois. (Michael Hirschuber/Getty Images)
If you can’t find it, or they never post it (but I have to imagine they will give options once he is added to the lineup, and he absolutely should be, given his history), I still have a play. I’m taking the Cubs at -130 here. Rea isn’t the most reliable, but he should at least be decent here, and the Cubs will have the fresher bullpen. Give me the Cubs to win this one.
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For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024
Sports
Dodgers’ walk-off stuns Orioles as Dalton Rushing helps cap wild comeback
Dalton Rushing was frustrated. He just chased a slider in the dirt — again. And this time, the game was on the line. The Dodgers were down to their last out. He was down to his last strike.
So he took a moment, took a breath, and looked to the Dodgers dugout.
The first person he spotted was Mookie Betts, who had just cut the Orioles’ lead to a run with a solo homer. Betts was locked in with Rushing, brimming with confidence, cheering him on.
“For a guy like that, a guy that’s lived in that moment, he’s succeeded in that moment, he’s failed in that moment, he knows what it feels like, it’s pretty special,” Rushing recounted.
Rushing’s eyes traveled along the railing, noting his teammates all on the top step, all relying on him.
He dug into the box, expecting the slider that Baltimore’s Ryan Helsley threw next — it was high, for a ball. Then Rushing got a fastball he could drive. And he did not miss.
The next moments in the Dodgers’ 6-5 walk-off win Friday were chaos.
Rushing lined a tying single into right field, giving Alex Call time to score from second. Call slid across the plate as the throw from Orioles right fielder Tyler O’Neill took for a long hop to catcher Samuel Basallo.
Basallo misjudged it, taking an unhurried shuffle up the line, before the ball glanced off his glove and rolled toward the Dodgers dugout.
Third base coach Dino Ebel waved home Ryan Ward, who scored standing up.
Manager Dave Roberts, who looked down at his card when the throw was in the air, was already thinking through extra innings when the crowd erupted again. He heard field coordinator Bob Geren shouting something like, “The run counts.”
The Dodgers (49-27) ran onto the field and swarmed Rushing, who had just reached second. They jumped and yelled as the Dodgers Stadium lights flashed around them.
“It was good to get Freddie [Freeman] a night off for being the guy in the middle for a change, you know?” Rushing said with a grin. “No, it’s a great feeling, and I think it honestly just feels great that we won that baseball game.”
For several innings, it looked like they wouldn’t.
Dalton Rushing celebrates after hitting a run-scoring single in the ninth to help lift the Dodgers to a 6-5 walk-off win over the Baltimore Orioles at Dodger Stadium.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
The Dodgers had jumped out to an early 3-0 lead, on a two-run single from Max Muncy in the first inning and an RBI double from Andy Pages in the second. Then their scoring dried up.
Rushing was having as frustrating of a night as anyone, with a line out and three strikeouts.
His first strikeout was part of a brutal sequence. The Dodgers loaded the bases with no outs in the third. Then Ward, Rushing and Alex Freeland, all went down swinging.
Rushing struck out on a slider in the dirt. And Orioles starter Trey Gibson got him to bite on the same putaway pitch in the fifth.
Rushing’s reactions steadily grew more animated, on the field and in the dugout.
Mookie Betts celebrates as he runs the bases after hitting a solo home run in the ninth inning Friday against the Orioles.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
Alex Freeland signals safe after sliding past Baltimore catcher Samuel Basallo to score on a double by Andy Pages in the second inning Friday.
(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times)
“He plays with a fire under his ass,” Freeland said. “He gets after it. He expects nothing but the best for himself day in and day out, and that comes with it.”
Said Roberts: “After he … vents, he does a good job of collecting himself to get back into the next play, the next at-bat, catching.”
On Friday, he was catching Roki Sasaki, who faced just one batter over the minimum through five innings. But during the third time through the order, the Orioles finally figured him out and hit back-to-back home runs.
With two outs and a runner on, Sasaki yanked a splitter to the inside edge of the strike zone to Gunnar Henderson, who lifted it over the wall in right field. Pete Alonso then homered to left-center field on an inside fastball about belt high to tie the score.
“I thought he threw the baseball really well,” Roberts said. “I liked the way he competed. The fastball command was good. He was fantastic tonight.”
The Orioles (35-42) pulled ahead against the Dodgers bullpen. Will Klein surrendered a seventh-inning single to Jackson that sent two baserunners, including one inherited from Dodgers left-hander Jack Dreyer, across the plate.
Kyle Hurt and Blake Treinen threw clean eighth and ninth innings.
Finally, in the bottom of the ninth, Betts ended the Dodgers’ scoring drought. Then Muncy — later replaced by the pinch-running Call — and Ward drew walks.
With two outs, Rushing stepped up to the plate, fell behind in the count 0-2 and reset.
“I look in the dugout, and all those guys care about is that next pitch, and the next pitch after that, and the next pitch after that,” Rushing said. “They just want you to win one pitch at a time.”
So, that’s what he did.
Sports
World Cup Red Cards: 2026 Has More Red Cards Than Each Of Last 2 World Cups
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The referees have been active at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
It took only 27 games across seven days for officials to allocate more red cards than they did during the entire 2018 and 2022 FIFA World Cups. The record for red cards in a single World Cup stands at 28 in 2006. These moments led to penalty kicks, set pieces outside the box and offenses capitalizing on shorthanded opponents.
FOX Sports rules analyst Mark Clattenburg weighed in on the increase in red cards.
“Players are well-behaved, but they’re just making mistakes in and around the penalty area, in maybe a panic,” Clattenburg said. “And not saying the players getting inside the penalty area and conceding the penalties are more than happy to commit a foul and commit a red card, knowing that they miss the next match, but now that they have 26 players on the roster, there are plenty of players to certainly cover [those] positions.”
The record for red cards in a single World Cup is 28 in the 2006 edition of the tournament, and nine of those were straight red cards.
- 2026: 6 red cards (all 6 straight reds)
- 2022: 4 red cards (1 straight red)
- 2018: 4 red cards (2 straight reds)
- 2014: 10 red cards (7 straight reds)
- 2010: 17 red cards (9 straight reds)
- 2006: 28 red cards (9 straight reds)
Here’s a look at every red card and the impact they’ve had on the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Miguel Almiron was sent off right before halftime in Paraguay’s match against Türkiye after a VAR check determined that he said something while covering his mouth to an opposing player.
Madibo made an ill-timed tackle in the midfield on Canada’s Ismaël Koné. Koné was ultimately stretchered off the pitch as Qatar was reduced to nine men.
With Canada taking an early 2-0 lead, Homam Ahmed’s desperate tackle on Tajon Buchanan just outside the box only made matters worse. Canada scored moments later against a 10-man Qatar side to increase the advantage to 3-0.
Tarik Muharemović tackled Swiss striker Breel Embolo on the precipice of the 18-yard box, preventing a one-on-one between Embolo and the goalkeeper. Switzerland didn’t convert the ensuing set piece, but with Bosnia and Herzegovina down to 10 men, the Swiss went on to score three late goals and close out a 4-1 victory.
As tempers boiled in the opening match, Mexico made it a three-red-card affair. César Montes took down Khuliso Mudau in an attacking position in the second minute of injury time. South Africa couldn’t capitalize on the set piece, and the match ended with a 2-0 Mexico victory.
Themba Zwane was sent off for making contact with Brian Gutiérrez in the head during a South African attack. He put his team in a stick situation, down to nine men. Zwane’s suspension was extended from the normal one game to three after FIFA ruled it fell under Article 14’s rule for violent contact.
In the 2026 FIFA World Cup opening match, Sithole took down Mexico’s Brian Gutierrez just outside the box, earning a red card as the last line of defense between Gutierrez and the goalkeeper. Sithole’s red card led to a free kick from a threatening position, but Mexico couldn’t convert. However, in the 67th minute, Mexico capitalized on the one-man advantage as Raúl Jiménez scored his first World Cup goal.
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