Nevada

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts

Published

1 year ago

November 4, 2024

Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts

Topline

Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.

Donald Trump arrives at a Turning Point Action campaign rally on October 24 in Las Vegas.

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Key Facts

Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston—CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of presidential races in the state—wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the hardest since I started doing this.”

Ralston’s prediction comes as Trump and Harris are virtually tied in other Nevada polls—FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point edge.

Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final pre-election Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3%—essentially a tie—among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Oct. 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.

Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.

Surprising Fact

A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.

Tangent

The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.

What To Watch For

The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.

Big Number

56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key Background

Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.

Nevada reaches settlement with Hyundai and Kia over anti-theft technology

Published

11 hours ago

December 17, 2025

Press Room

Nevada reaches settlement with Hyundai and Kia over anti-theft technology

LAS VEGAS (FOX5) — Attorney General Aaron Ford’s office says Nevada and other states reached a settlement with Hyundai and Kia for selling cars that lack industry-standard anti-theft technology.

“Hyundai and Kia did not meet their responsibilities to the public and created a public safety issue by neglecting to use industry-standard technology on their vehicles,” Ford said. “I strongly urge any impacted Nevadans to make use of this settlement agreement to install these safety measures and, if eligible, to seek monetary restitution.”

As part of the settlement, the automakers agreed to equip all future cars with the anti-theft technology and offer ignition cylinder protectors to owners or leasees of eligible vehicles.

In statements, both companies affirmed their commitment to work with law enforcement to combat car theft.

According to a media release, consumers who previously installed the software update on their vehicles (or were scheduled to do so) but nonetheless experienced a theft or attempted theft of their vehicle on or after April 29, 2025, are eligible to file a claim for restitution for certain theft and attempted-theft related expenses.

For more information about eligibility and how to submit a claim for compensation, Ford’s office says to visit the following:

Hyundai: www.HKMultistateimmobilizersettlement.com
For Kia: https://customercare.kiausa.com/SWLD or call (800) 333-4Kia(4542)

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Nevada

Clark County prepares for second annual Missing in Nevada Day event

Published

23 hours ago

December 17, 2025

Press Room

Clark County prepares for second annual Missing in Nevada Day event

Las Vegas (KSNV) — The Clark County coroner will host the second annual Missing in Nevada Day event, providing families with a vital opportunity to file reports of missing loved ones, receive updates on existing cases, and connect with investigators and advocates.

The event will take place on Saturday, Jan. 31, from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. at UNLV’s University Gateway Building. Clark County Coroner Melanie Rouse highlighted the addition of new resources this year.

Families are encouraged to bring photographs, dental records, and fingerprints.

MORE ON NEWS 3 | US House passes bill for new Southern Nevada water pipeline

DNA samples may also be collected from close biological family members to help build a profile for the missing loved one.

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Nevada

Enrollment climbs in charter schools, drops in Clark and Washoe school districts

Published

1 day ago

December 16, 2025

Press Room

Enrollment climbs in charter schools, drops in Clark and Washoe school districts

All but three public school districts across the state saw student enrollment drop this year, according to the data compiled by the Nevada Department of Education. Statewide enrollment in K-12 public school districts dipped by around 2% for the 2025-26 academic year. Charter School Authority absorbs 6 CCSD-run charter schools The notable exception was the […]

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