Nevada
Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Independents Will Propel Harris To Victory, Renowned Forecaster Predicts
Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris will eke out a narrow win against former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state, veteran journalist Jon Ralston, who is revered for the accuracy of his presidential race predictions in the state, forecasted Monday, citing independent voters in the state he thinks will push Harris over the edge.
Donald Trump arrives at a Turning Point Action campaign rally on October 24 in Las Vegas.
Key Facts
Harris will win 48.5% of the vote, Trump will win 48.2% and 3.3% of voters will select “none of these candidates” on their ballots, Ralston—CEO and editor of the nonprofit Nevada Independent who has a perfect record of predicting the outcome of presidential races in the state—wrote Monday, calling this year’s election “the hardest since I started doing this.”
Ralston’s prediction comes as Trump and Harris are virtually tied in other Nevada polls—FiveThirtyEight’s weighted polling average shows Trump with a 0.4-point edge.
Harris and Trump are tied at 48% in the final pre-election Emerson College/The Hill poll out Monday (margin of error 3.3 points), and Harris is up three points, 49%-46%, in a New York Times/Siena poll of likely Nevada voters released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).
Harris is also ahead 51%-47% in a survey of likely voters released last week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide polls backed by universities (933 respondents).
Meanwhile, Trump is up 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).
Harris also leads 48.8%-48.3%—essentially a tie—among likely voters in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey released Oct. 23 (margin of error 5 points), she trails Trump 47%-46% in an AARP survey of likely voters released Oct. 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal poll out Oct. 11 (margin of error 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.
Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.
Surprising Fact
A plurality of voters, 30%, identify as independents in Nevada. Ralston predicts they will swing toward Harris, citing a new Democrat-backed law that automatically registers voters as nonpartisan at DMVs if they don’t choose a political party.
Tangent
The GOP has a lead in mail ballots that have been returned so far, raising their hopes of retaking the state. “Republicans are looking better in the early count than they ever have,” Jon Ralston, CEO and editor of the Nevada Independent who is highly respected for his early voting predictions, told Vox on Tuesday, a week before the election. Ralston said there are some indicators younger voters will cast their ballots later and that independents will favor Harris, however, which could swing the vote toward Democrats.
What To Watch For
The state does not release results until after the last voter in line when polls close at 10 p.m. EST casts their ballot. Mail-in ballots can be counted 15 days before Election Day, which could lead to quicker results than in 2020, but a state law that allows mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they are received by Nov. 9 could elongate the process. The majority of Nevada voters cast their ballots by mail.
Big Number
56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
Key Background
Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic. Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters. Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.
Tangent
The Harris campaign made a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.
Further Reading
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)
Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Keeps Lead In Arizona As Harris Holds Narrow Edge In Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)
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if ($(‘.rj-story-full’).hasClass(‘tag-vegas-weekend’)) { //vegas-reawakening
html=””;
html += ”;
html += ”;
html += ‘
html += ‘
html += ‘
html += ”;
html += ”;
$(‘.nlsm-small’).addClass(‘vegas-reawakening’).html(html);
return;
}
//add newsletters embed
var default_category_to_show = [‘News’, ‘Local’, ‘Life’, ‘Crime’];
var newsletter_1st_lv = [];
newsletter_1st_lv[‘default’] = {‘id’:’starting_point,pm_update’, ‘track_name’:’StartingPoint’, ‘title’:’LOCAL NEWS YOUR WAY‘, ‘subtitle’:’Sign up for our free daily Morning and Afternoon Update newsletters.’};
newsletter_1st_lv[‘Sports’] = {‘id’:’sports’, ‘track_name’:’Sports’, ‘title’:’SPORTS NEWS YOUR WAY‘, ‘subtitle’:’Sign up for our free Sports Update newsletter.’};
newsletter_1st_lv[‘Business’] = {‘id’:’business’, ‘track_name’:’Business’, ‘title’:’BUSINESS NEWS YOUR WAY‘, ‘subtitle’:’Sign up for our free Business Update newsletter.’};
newsletter_1st_lv[‘Live Well’] = {‘id’:’livewell’, ‘track_name’:’livewell’, ‘title’:’LIVE WELL NEWSLETTER‘, ‘subtitle’:’Your weekly source for living your healthiest and happiest life.’};
newsletter_1st_lv[‘Entertainment’] = {‘id’:”,’alert_id’:’entertainment’, ‘track_name’:’Entertainment’, ‘title’:’WANT THE LATEST ON LAS VEGAS ENTERTAINMENT?‘, ‘subtitle’:’Sign up for free entertainment email alerts’};
//newsletter_1st_lv[‘Nevada Preps’] = {‘id’:’nevada_preps’, ‘title’:’HIGH SCHOOL SPORTS YOUR WAY‘, ‘subtitle’:’Stay up to date with our free Nevada Preps newsletter.’};
//newsletter_1st_lv[‘Investigations’] = {‘id’:’rj_investigates’, ‘title’:’INVESTIGATIVE NEWS YOUR WAY‘, ‘subtitle’:’Sign up for our free RJ Investigates newsletter.’};
var cat_has_subcat = [‘News’,’Business’,’Entertainment’,’Sports’, ‘Opinion’];
var newsletter_2nd_lv = [];
newsletter_2nd_lv[‘Politics and Government’] = {‘id’:”,’alert_id’:’political’, ‘track_name’:’Political’, ‘title’:’LOCAL, REGIONAL AND NATIONAL POLITICS COVERAGE‘, ‘subtitle’:’
//newsletter_2nd_lv[‘Politics and Government’] = {‘id’:’political’, ‘title’:’ELECTION 2020: BE INFORMED’, ‘subtitle’:’
//newsletter_2nd_lv[‘Debra J. Saunders’] = {‘id’:’44’, ‘title’:’YOUR WEEKLY POLITICAL FIX‘, ‘subtitle’:’Sign up for our free DC-LV newsletter with political stories from the swamp to the Strip.’};
//newsletter_2nd_lv[‘CES 2021’] = {‘id’:’ces’, ‘title’:’CES 2021: STAY IN THE KNOW’, ‘subtitle’:’
//newsletter_2nd_lv[‘TV’] = {‘id’:’tv_briefing’, ‘title’:’GET YOUR TV LISTINGS‘, ‘subtitle’:’Your Weekly TV Briefing.’};
//newsletter_2nd_lv[‘UNLV’] = {‘id’:’unlv_rebel_news’, ‘title’:’UNLV SPORTS YOUR WAY‘, ‘subtitle’:’Stay up to date on the Rebels with our free newsletter.’};
newsletter_2nd_lv[‘Rodeo’] = {‘id’:’rodeo_nfr’, ‘track_name’:’RodeoNFR’, ‘title’:’RODEO NEWS YOUR WAY‘, ‘subtitle’:’Don’t miss any of the action! Click here for full NFR coverage or Sign up for our free newsletter below’};
newsletter_2nd_lv[‘Raiders News’] = {‘id’:’vegasnation’, ‘track_name’:’VegasNation’, ‘title’:’WANT EVEN MORE RAIDERS NEWS?‘, ‘subtitle’:’Sign up for our free Vegas Nation newsletter.’};
newsletter_2nd_lv[‘Golden Knights’] = {‘id’:”,’alert_id’:’golden_knights’, ‘track_name’:’GoldenKnights’, ‘title’:’WANT MORE KNIGHTS IN YOUR DAY?‘, ‘subtitle’:’Sign up for free Golden Knights email alerts for all the latest updates’};
var main_cat=””;
var m_hierarchy = [];
var m_cat = [];
var m_hl_cat=””;
if (window.dataLayer[0].metrics) {
main_cat = window.dataLayer[0].metrics.section; //National Finals Rodeo
m_hierarchy = window.dataLayer[0].metrics.hierarchy.split(‘ | ‘); //”Sports | Rodeo | National Finals Rodeo”
m_cat = window.dataLayer[0].metrics.categories; //[“National Finals Rodeo”,”Rodeo”,”Sports”]
m_hl_cat = window.dataLayer[0].metrics[‘hl-category’]; //Sports
}
var i, k, found, newsletter;
newsletter = false;
found = false;
if (default_category_to_show.includes(m_hl_cat)) {
newsletter = newsletter_1st_lv[‘default’];
}
if (newsletter_1st_lv.hasOwnProperty(m_hl_cat)) {
newsletter = newsletter_1st_lv[m_hl_cat];
}
// check main category
if (newsletter_2nd_lv.hasOwnProperty(main_cat)) {
found = true;
newsletter = newsletter_2nd_lv[main_cat];
}
if (!found) {
// check in hierarchy (main category hierarchy)
i = m_hierarchy.length;
while (!found && i >= 0) {
i–;
if (i > 0) {
if (newsletter_2nd_lv.hasOwnProperty(m_hierarchy[i])) {
found = true;
newsletter = newsletter_2nd_lv[m_hierarchy[i]];
}
} else {
// i=0, check first level
if (newsletter_1st_lv.hasOwnProperty(m_hierarchy[i])) {
found = true;
newsletter = newsletter_1st_lv[m_hierarchy[i]];
}
}
}
}
if (!found) {
// check in category
i = m_cat.length;
while (!found && i > 0 && cat_has_subcat.includes(m_hl_cat)) {
i–;
if (newsletter_2nd_lv.hasOwnProperty(m_cat[i])) {
found = true;
newsletter = newsletter_2nd_lv[m_cat[i]];
}
}
}
if (newsletter !== false && !$(‘.rj-story-full’).hasClass(‘tag-hide-newsletter’) && !$(‘.rj-story-full’).hasClass(‘ rj-story-sponsored-full’)) {
var alert_id = ”;
if (newsletter.alert_id) {
alert_id = newsletter.alert_id;
}
html=””;
html += ”;
html += ”;
html += ”;
$(‘.nlsm-small’).html(html);
}
//});
})(jQuery);
Nevada
Heat, wind, and monsoon on deck this week for Southern Nevada
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low: 79°
TOMORROW: Sunny and breezy. SW winds in the afternoon 5-10mph, gusts up to 25mph. Overnight rain chances 10-30% with isolated t-storms. Increasing cloud cover in the evening. High: 109°
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers with isolated t-storms before 11AM. Breezy with SW winds 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph. High: 106°
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we’re tracking the arrival of monsoonal moisture. The impact is minimal…just a 10-30% chance of rain in the valley at this time. Could see a few sprinkles or potentially just some virga. Isolated t-storms have not been ruled out, but more rain is expected in San Bernardino County to our southwest. We’ll see cloud cover move in with this system Tuesday night, although it’s not long-lived and won’t bring us any more moisture after Wednesday.
Temperatures cool off slightly Wednesday with a high of 106. On Thursday we’ll see 107.
Windy weather ramps up later this work week with gusts up to 30mph Thursday, Friday, Saturday due to a low-pressure system in the Pacific Northwest. We will cool off slightly due to the influence of this system back towards the low 100s and high 90s by next weekend.
Nevada
Organizers in Idaho, Nevada, and Virginia Are Putting Abortion Rights on Ballot
By Marianne Dhenin
This article was originally published by Truthout
Grassroots canvassers are hitting the streets to urge voters to defend abortion rights in their states this November.
It has been four years since the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization eliminated the federal constitutional right to abortion, leaving people in the U.S. to navigate a confusing patchwork of abortion protections, restrictions, and outright bans depending on jurisdiction. Organizers have ramped up efforts to improve access since the ruling, and thanks to that work, measures to protect and ensure reproductive freedoms are expected to be on the ballot in three states come November: Idaho, Nevada, and Virginia.
“When Idaho’s trigger ban went into effect in August of 2022, people needed to talk about it, and we came together informally and then eventually [there was] the idea that, ‘Hey, we need to draft a ballot initiative. We need to raise money for some attorneys. We need to get our act together,’” Melanie Folwell, executive director of Idahoans United for Women and Families, told Truthout. That organization was founded soon after and has led the campaign to get the Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act Initiative on the ballot this year. The initiative would decriminalize abortion and provide that “every person has the right to … make personal decisions about reproductive health care,” including abortion, contraception, and more.
Idaho was one of 13 states with trigger bans on the books when Dobbs came down. Those bans were passed after the Supreme Court’s 1973 decision in Roe v. Wade upheld a constitutional right to abortion, meaning they could not be enforced as long as that decision stood. But when Roe was overturned, the bans came into effect.
Other restrictions and bans have followed Dobbs as the Trump administration and right-wing lawmakers move to eliminate reproductive health care. Nationwide, 30 states now have bans, hostile legislation, or lack reproductive rights protections, according to the Center for Reproductive Rights.
Effects of Idaho’s Abortion Ban
When Idaho’s ban first came into effect, it prohibited abortion with exceptions for the life of the pregnant person and some survivors of rape and incest. Then in 2023, the state’s Republican supermajority narrowed the rape and incest exceptions to apply only during the first trimester. Today, the ban is among the strictest in the nation.
Most Idahoans who need access to an abortion are now forced to travel out of state, including some pregnant patients facing medical emergencies. Access to other reproductive health care has also become more difficult as OB-GYNs leave, feeling it no longer safe to practice in a state with a near-total abortion ban that includes criminal and civil liabilities for providers found in violation of the law. Some hospital labor and delivery departments have shuttered altogether — including, Folwell said, the one where she gave birth to her daughter about two decades ago.
As maternity care deserts worsen across Idaho, so-called crisis pregnancy centers are moving into the gaps. Those fake clinics are meant to look like real health centers, but they operate without medical licensing and aim to scare, shame, or pressure visitors out of accessing abortion care.
Other states with abortion bans have experienced similar consequences.
“Access to reproductive health care has been so relentlessly politicized for power and influence and gain for decades now in this state, and unfortunately, women in Idaho, and people looking to grow a family, plan a family, [or] just be a person in Idaho are finding that the impacts of all that political football are very personal,” Folwell told Truthout.
Hundreds of Idahoans stepped up to collect the signatures required to move the abortion-decriminalizing Idaho Reproductive Freedom and Privacy Act Initiative forward.
More than 105,000 Idahoans (or about 10 percent of the state’s voting population) signed — well over the required 6 percent. Officials have until June 30 to certify the number of valid signatures before the initiative can be officially placed on the November ballot.
Struggles for Abortion Rights in Virginia and Nevada
Similar efforts are ongoing in Virginia and Nevada, where constitutional amendments protecting abortion have already been put on the states’ respective ballots. In Nevada, Question 6, or the Right to Abortion Initiative, would ensure access to abortion until the point of “fetal viability,” generally estimated to be around 24 weeks. It is the second time Question 6 will appear on ballots; under state law, a ballot measure must pass twice to become a part of the state constitution. In 2024, it passed with 64 percent of the vote.
“This campaign was a grassroots-led effort powered by state partners, activists, and our over 50,000 battle-born members,” Reproductive Freedom for All Director of State Campaigns Caroline Mello Roberson said in a press release when Question 6 first passed in 2024. “We’re excited to continue working to ensure that reproductive freedom is a reality for all Nevada families and lock our rights into law in 2026.”
Meanwhile, if passed, the Virginia Right to Reproductive Freedom Amendment would establish “the right to make and effectuate one’s own decisions about all matters related to one’s pregnancy.” Passing the amendment would also make Virginia the only state in the South with abortion protections. Currently, most Southern states enforce either a total ban on abortion or bans beginning at six or 12 weeks.
“Anybody in Florida, anybody in Tennessee, they would have to drive to Virginia to get the access they need, and that is not an easy thing to do. But I think it’s also meaningful to be able to perhaps provide that not just for Virginians but also for people in the South,” Sara Sanatkar, canvass and field manager at Repro Rising, told Truthout. Repro Rising is one of several Virginia organizations in Virginians for Reproductive Freedom, the coalition leading the campaign for a state constitutional amendment that would protect abortion rights. That coalition also came together in response to Dobbs.
Canvassers Mobilize a Grassroots Upswell for Abortion Rights
Though the political climates differ between the three states expected to vote on reproductive freedom this November, canvassers hitting the streets to mobilize community members are carrying similar messages. Organizers told Truthout that people relate to personal stories from their neighbors about how access to reproductive health care or restrictions placed on it has shaped their lives. They also tend to agree that decisions around reproductive health care should remain between an individual and their loved ones.
“We can all agree that when it’s time to make a difficult decision about your future, your health, your life, your hopes and your dreams, that decision should be made at your kitchen table with your people and not with the government, not with a politician, with a seat at that table,” Folwell told Truthout. “That is a message that resonates broadly across all kinds of people, across all kinds of places.”
The canvassing taking shape now in Idaho, Virginia, and Nevada is just the current leg in marathon organizing efforts. Passing legislation to better protect abortion rights has been a goal for advocates and organizers since the Supreme Court agreed to take up Dobbs, and the campaigns that grew into this year’s ballot measures coalesced soon after and are rooted in organizing relationships that run even deeper. But those leading the campaigns warn organizers elsewhere not to be discouraged by the time it takes to make change.
“We’ve seen over and over again, and not just in really progressive states, when voters have the opportunity to make their voices heard on reproductive freedom, they do,” Han Jones, campaign manager with Virginians for Reproductive Freedom, told Truthout. “I would encourage folks to take the long road that it sometimes is and keep working because this is something that people want, and it’s something that we can fight for.”
Hannah Servedio, director of organizing at Virginians for Reproductive Freedom, told Truthout that advice goes for anyone concerned about the rollbacks of reproductive rights across the country. Each of the reproductive rights ballot measures slated for this November started with community members coming together and committing to change.
“You don’t need the title of ‘organizer’ to be an organizer,” they said. “You can just decide that you’d like to work with other people who care about this issue and organize your community — you can take that role on for yourself.”
Now, with only months left in the final leg of their campaigns, organizers in Idaho, Nevada, and Virginia are hard at work ensuring their yearslong efforts will pay off come Election Day.
Mary Olivia Rentner, communications director at Virginians for Reproductive Freedom, told Truthout that though the work is tireless, it never stops feeling fulfilling: “To have this moment where there is actionable change happening, where we can actually see the future of our Commonwealth being shaped by people who aren’t going to let our rights be taken away, who are going to protect the care that is life-saving and life-changing, and protect the doctors and nurses who provide it, it brings me a lot of hope about the differences that we can make within our communities, within our state, and within the country.”
This article was originally published by Truthout and is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). Please maintain all links and credits in accordance with our republishing guidelines.
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