Politics
Trump camp confident based on early voting, while Black leaders say Harris is struggling
At a time when we’re all deluged with conflicting polls and statistical ties, Donald Trump’s campaign is unusually confident.
The Kamala Harris operation also sees reason for optimism, with news that late deciders are breaking her way by more than 10%. But she still casts herself as the underdog. Her “SNL” appearance doesn’t change that; nor does Trump saying that RFK’s plan to remove fluoride from the water, a major public health advance, “sounds okay to me.”
Most media folks, either publicly or privately, believe Trump will win, even as the anti-Trumpers beg their followers to turn out for the VP – such as MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace asking her ex-boss George W. Bush to publicly back Harris.
The climax of the campaign seems built around a gaping gender gap–with Kamala doing far better among women and Trump much better among men.
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Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are headed for a photo finish on Election Day – though morale in one camp is evidently far higher than it is in the other. (AP)
The view from the Trump camp is that registration figures favor Republicans, based on mail-in voting, in the battleground states that will decide the race. Nearly half the country has already voted.
Take the crucial commonwealth of Pennsylvania. In 2020, Democrats had a 7.5% advantage, and that’s now shrunk to a 3-point edge.
What’s more, just 39% of Democrats who have voted there so far are men, compared to 49% among Republicans.
Democratic strategist Tom Bonier, who appears on MSNBC, says the Pennsylvania electorate is much more Republican, and much more male, than last time.
Harris needs a huge turnout in Philadelphia to carry the state, and numerous news reports say she’s still struggling to win over some Black men.
In Wisconsin, the view from Trump World is that in-person voting (which tends to favor the former president) is outnumbering mail ballots (which lean Democratic). Trump’s strength is among male, white and rural voters. So, as in the case of Philly, Harris must do very well in Milwaukee and Madison to carry the state.
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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell recently told me is a toss-up, remains an enigma, because it doesn’t track party registration. So the ballgame there may turn on how well Harris does in Detroit.
The Trump camp sees similar advantages in such swing states as Georgia and North Carolina, where public polling is close but would be a bigger stretch for a Harris win. The election really turns on the three Blue Wall states.
Maybe Harris should have picked Josh Shapiro?
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Lititz, Pa., on Sunday, Nov. 3. The Trump campaign appears confident of a win based on early in-person votes outnumbering mail-in ballots – which skew heavily Democratic – in key areas. (AP/Matt Rourke)
In one key state after another, local Black leaders are quoted on the record as saying they’re worried about warning signs in their community:
Politico: “The city of Milwaukee is trailing the rest of the state by about 7 percent both in its mail-in return rate and in overall registered voter turnout. It’s a warning sign, even some Democrats privately say, for Harris as her campaign looks to run up the score with urban and suburban voters to overcome Wisconsin’s rural counties.”
Capital B, Atlanta: The turnout of Black voters in Georgia “has dropped from more than 29 percent” on the first day of early voting “to about 25 percent…That’s the bad news for Harris…
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“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats looking for a guaranteed win in statewide office races in Georgia usually need to hit a 30 percent Black turnout rate.”
Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, Black voters had cast 207,000 fewer ballots compared with four years ago — a drop of almost 40 percent.”
“I am worried about turnout in Detroit. I think it’s real,” said Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told ABC.
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after delivering remarks at a church service at Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Christ, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024, in Detroit. Former Harris surrogate Jamal Simmons told ABC that he is “worried about turnout” in the Motor City. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)
A sunnier view is offered by this Politico piece, which says that public polls appear to be undercounting Harris’ support.
The story says that “shy Trump voters” – who don’t want to tell pollsters who they’re supporting–are a thing of the past, given the aggressive nature of his campaign.
Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters are missed by the polls, especially Republicans frustrated with their own party: Nikki Haley voters.
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Citing a national survey, Politico says 66% of those voting for Haley in the primaries backed Trump in 2016, dropping to 59% four years ago and an estimated 45% this time. “Meanwhile, their support for the Democratic presidential nominee has nearly tripled from only 13 percent supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36 percent indicating an intent to vote for Kamala Harris.”
To which I say: Who the hell knows?
We’re at the point now before tomorrow’s election that pollsters are analyzing the polls to figure out which ones are off. And–here comes the cliché – it all depends on turnout. Despite raising a billion bucks, if some of Harris’ potential supporters stay home, that sinks her candidacy.
The scenarios favored by the Trump team rest largely on party registration, not polls that have missed the mark in the last two cycles.
That explains why the former president is more confident, even as he asks his advisers whether they really believe he’s going to win.
Politics
Graham’s death ignites GOP scramble for Senate seat as Trump hints he already has a favorite
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Sen. Lindsey Graham’s, R-S.C., sudden death from an undisclosed illness has triggered a two-pronged approach to replace him, and President Donald Trump will likely be a focal point in the process.
Graham’s passing overnight comes at a time when Republicans in the upper chamber need every vote they can get. The Senate GOP now holds a 52-seat majority, and with the timetable for Sen. Mitch McConnell’s, R-Ky., absence still unclear, that majority is now effectively 51 votes.
That will up the pressure, and drama, to find a replacement for the longtime South Carolina lawmaker.
LINDSEY GRAHAM, SOUTH CAROLINA SENATOR WHO ROSE FROM SMALL-TOWN ROOTS TO GOP POWER BROKER, DIES AT 71
Sen. Lindsey Graham speaks with reporters aboard Air Force One with President Donald Trump and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on the way back to Washington, D.C., on Jan. 4, 2026. (Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images)
Trump, during an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday, said, “I have somebody that I think would be great.”
“But I don’t want to say it now because it’s just, it’s too soon with Lindsey,” Trump said. “I don’t wanna even talk about anybody, but I do have somebody that I think is really good.”
It’s a process guided by the Constitution and state law. The first step will require South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, a Republican, to appoint a replacement for Graham on a temporary basis.
McMaster, a close ally of Trump, can appoint a temporary replacement as soon as he wants. That pick will serve until the next special or general election.
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Fox News Digital did not immediately hear back from McMaster’s office on when he would make the announcement, or who he was considering for the seat.
Graham was already in-cycle running for a fifth term in the upper chamber, and he easily cruised to a primary victory early last month. That means that whoever McMaster taps would serve until the end of the year to finish off the remainder of Graham’s fourth term.
The second prong is finding his long-term successor.
The candidate filing period for that special election to win the GOP nomination opens July 21. The election is slated for Aug. 11, according to South Carolina law.
That race could see several familiar faces in South Carolina GOP politics jumping in, including McMaster himself, who is termed out as governor.
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Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., departs the U.S. Capitol after a series of House votes on funding for Homeland Security and a War Powers resolution on Iran on March 5, 2026, in Washington, D.C. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Trump heaped praise on McMaster, noting that he endorsed his first bid for the White House in 2016.
“Henry’s been a great governor, you know now he’s termed out, but he’s going to do the right thing,” Trump said. “I think Henry will be fantastic.”
There are six members of South Carolina’s GOP congressional delegation who could toss their hats into the mix. Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., who recently lost a bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination, is eyeing jumping into the special election.
A person familiar with Mace’s plans told Fox News Digital, “Congresswoman Mace is considering a bid to run.”
Then there’s Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C., the longest-serving Republican member of the Palmetto State’s delegation. He quickly snuffed speculation about whether he’d leap into the fray.
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“I was grateful to speak with President Trump today reminiscing about our mutual friend, Senator Lindsey Graham,” Wilson said on X. “I assured him my goal is to remain in the House to keep his two-vote majority for the American people!!!”
Then there’s the remaining four: South Carolina Republican Reps. Ralph Norman, who also lost out on scoring the GOP nomination for governor, Russell Fry, William Timmons and Sheri Biggs, none of whom, so far, have signaled that they would jump into the battle for Graham’s seat.
Meanwhile, South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette could also be in the mix.
A source familiar told Fox News Digital that Evette is receiving “tons of encouragement from all across the state and from around the country” to serve as the temporary caretaker for Graham’s seat.
The source said that Evette is also being encouraged to run to seek a full six-year term in the Senate.
Evette, a top South Carolina ally of Trump’s and McMaster’s, was endorsed by both as she finished first in South Carolina’s Republican gubernatorial primary in this year’s race to succeed McMaster.
But after Trump also endorsed her GOP rival in the runoff, State Attorney General Alan Wilson, she was trounced by Wilson a few weeks ago in the runoff election
Fox News Digital did not immediately receive responses to requests for comment from possible contenders in the House.
Politics
On birthright citizenship, the Supreme Court ‘originalists’ split on history and Trump
WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court’s conservative justices say they decide cases based on the words and original history of the Constitution — and not on their personal or political views.
Following the lead set by the late Justice Antonin Scalia, they say they see history and “originalism” as a guiding principle to prevent judges from changing the Constitution to adjust to new and changing times.
This text-and-history approach is said to contrast with an evolving or “living Constitution” favored by progressives and liberal activists.
But this year saw a flip of sorts on birthright citizenship.
The foremost conservatives agreed with President Trump that the surge of illegal immigration called for reconsidering the promise of citizenship at birth set out in the 14th Amendment of 1868.
“The number of illegal immigrants in this country exploded” in recent years, Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. wrote in dissent. The rule of citizenship at birth provides “a powerful incentive to enter or remain in this country illegally,” he added.
“The Constitution is an enduring document,” wrote Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh, but its rules and meaning must adjust to “modern situations that were unknown or unanticipated by the Constitution’s Framers.”
In a concurring opinion, he said that “significant illegal immigration into the United States is a new circumstance that was largely unknown as of 1868.”
There were no federal immigration laws in the mid-19th century, but it was an era when a surge of Irish immigrants had settled on the East Coast and large numbers of Chinese immigrants came to California.
Under the law, their children were deemed to be citizens at birth.
Among the conservative originalists, only Justice Amy Coney Barrett signed the majority opinion that was written by Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and joined by the three liberals.
The opening words of the 14th Amendment of 1868 say: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to the jurisdiction thereof are citizens of the United States.”
In 1898, the Supreme Court upheld the rule of citizenship at birth in the case of Wong Kim Ark, who was born in San Francisco to Chinese parents.
In an executive order, Trump proposed to end birthright citizenship for the newborns whose parents were in the country illegally or temporarily.
Writing for the court, the chief justice said the words of the 14th Amendment were clear and were clearly understood at the time. He dismissed the “dramatically revisionist view” that has been cited recently.
Kavanaugh voted with the majority to block Trump’s order from taking effect. He did so because Congress had adopted birthright citizenship in a 1952 law.
“Consistent with the 14th Amendment, Congress could … enact new legislation establishing exceptions to birthright citizenship,” he wrote.
Justices Clarence Thomas and Alito wrote long dissents arguing that the framers of the 14th Amendment did not or would not have favored birthright citizenship.
They pointed to recent scholarship by law professors that raised questions about the accepted understanding of the 14th Amendment and the citizenship rule.
Thomas said citizenship of the child should turn on whether the parents were “domiciled” in this country. Black people who were enslaved were undoubtedly domiciled here, but the same is not true of temporary visitors.
Justice Neil M. Gorsuch agreed in part with Thomas and questioned whether the newborns of temporary visitors should be deemed as citizens at birth.
Many court commentators were surprised by the close 5-4 divide on the constitutional issue.
“Given how clear the language was, I expected it to be 7 to 2,” said Melissa Murray, a New York University law professor. “I really gasped when I saw it was 5-4. This is not settled. We’re not done with this debate.”
Sarah Isgur, a podcaster and SCOTUSblog analyst, said that “originalism is getting more and more muddled. Either the history matters or it doesn’t.”
However, she agreed with Kavanaugh’s approach of leaving it to Congress to reconsider the issue.
Not all originalists are conservative.
Yale Law Professor Akhil Amar, a constitutional historian, argued that the history of birthright citizenship is clear and not subject to revisionist thinking. He said the Reconstruction Congress adopted this principle of citizenship at birth and stated their intent in clear words in the 14th Amendment.
“When a baby is born on American soil and an American flag flies above, that baby is a birthright citizen, as the Reconstruction Republicans across the land understood,” he wrote in February. This rule “has virtually nothing to do with the baby’s parents.”
Last week, he was mostly cheered by the court’s ruling.
“It’s a triumph, but it should have been 9-0,” Amar said on a review of the court term sponsored by SCOTUSblog. “Shame on the dissenters. They didn’t even the address the statute” and its wording.
But the majority led by Roberts “clearly affirmed the plain meaning of the constitutional text and its history. And that’s a win,” he said.
History has a recurring role at the Supreme Court.
Isgur noted the court will hear arguments in the fall on whether the 2nd Amendment of 1791 gives gun owners a right to have “assault weapons” like AR-15 rifles.
She said the court will decide then between history and changed circumstances.
At issue is whether these modern rapid-fire rifles fit within the history of the gun rights protected by the 2nd Amendment or instead represent a new and dangerous threat to public safety that was unknown in 1791.
Scalia’s opinion upholding gun rights in 2008 is often cited as a model of originalism, but it too emerged from a court divided 5-4.
The 2nd Amendment says, “A well-regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bears Arms, shall not be infringed.”
For decades, the Supreme Court had all but ignored the 2nd Amendment, viewing it as a somewhat outdated provision involving militias, akin to the 3rd Amendment. It forbids having soldiers “quartered in any house … in time of peace.”
Four liberal dissenters in 2008 said the court should stand by that understanding of history.
Justice John Paul Stevens said the 2nd Amendment was added to the Constitution to protect state militias from federal interference. Moreover, the reference to “bear arms” suggests it was about militias, he said.
But Scalia’s opinion stands as the landmark precedent, and he said the dissenters had the history all wrong.
The right to have guns for self-defense arose in England and came to the American colonies. “By the time of the founding, the right to have arms had become fundamental for English subjects,” he wrote.
The 2nd Amendment did not establish a new right, he said. Rather, it “codified a pre-existing right [of] having and using arms for self-preservation and [defense],” he wrote.
“There seems to us no doubt, on the basis of both text and history,” Scalia wrote, “that the 2nd Amendment conferred an individual right to keep and bear arms.”
Politics
Sen. Lindsey Graham dead at 71 after ‘brief and sudden’ illness, office says
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Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., died Saturday evening following a “brief and sudden” illness, according to a statement from his office.
“On the evening of Saturday, July 11, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham passed away from a brief and sudden illness,” his office said.
“Senator Graham’s family appreciates prayers at this time and asks for privacy during this incredibly difficult period,” it continued.
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Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., speaks with reporters about aid to Ukraine, on Capitol Hill, Wednesday, March 10, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
This is a breaking story; check back for updates.
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