Politics
Which Battleground State Voters Could Sway the Election?
It’s no secret that the political sentiments of Americans follow lines of race and ethnicity, education and age. But what makes presidential elections so competitive is how these demographic groups often balance each other out.
Voters in key states in 2020
In 2024, this delicate equilibrium is key to understanding the seven battleground states where, according to the polls, the presidential race is closest. Last election, several of these states were decided by fewer than 40,000 votes. Since then, together they’ve added about 1.3 million potential voters, and the smallest shifts in sentiment or turnout among certain groups could be enough to alter the outcome of this election.
To better understand the demographic forces at play in the battlegrounds, The New York Times conducted a granular review of the 2020 contest and compared precinct-level results with census data to estimate who cast ballots and how they voted. We examined race and ethnicity, age, education and geography to identify trends and key groups in each state. (Gender is another growing factor in partisanship but was not part of this analysis.)
2020 result: Biden won by 10,000 votes Key groups: Latino voters, young voters
The 2020 Electorate
3.4 million people voted
1.7 million people did not vote
What to watch President Biden’s winning coalition relied heavily on Latino voters, who made up nearly a quarter of those who voted in 2020, a figure that will likely rise in this election. But while Latino voters in the state have typically favored Democrats, no group is a monolith.
Experts say Latinos have weaker party attachment than other nonwhite groups and could be persuaded to change their votes. Moreover, a significant share of this group is made up of U.S.-born, young Latinos who will vote for the first time, and their sentiment is less predictable. Recent surveys have shown former President Donald J. Trump making inroads with young people and voters of color.
Mr. Trump’s biggest support in 2020 came from white voters aged 35 and older. This group accounted for half of the ballots cast, due in part to the outsize number of white retirees in the state.
For Democrats, there are potentially more votes to gain. In 2020, there were more ballots cast for the Democratic Senate candidate than for Mr. Biden. “Those voters who voted for Mark Kelly but decided not to vote for Biden or Trump could have decided the outcome of the race,” said Samara Klara, a political science professor at the University of Arizona.
2020 result: Biden won by 12,000 votes
Key groups: Black voters, white voters with a college degree
The 2020 Electorate
5 million people voted
2.5 million people did not vote
What to watch Democrats in Georgia have long been guided by the “30/30 rule,” a term made popular by the University of Georgia political scientist Charles S. Bullock III. It says that in order for Democrats to win, Black voters must make up 30 percent of all voters and at least 30 percent of white voters must vote Democratic.
Black voters, who cast nearly a third of the ballots in 2020, overwhelmingly favored Mr. Biden — by almost 90 percent. But that reliable base of support appeared to be slipping earlier this year, and it’s a group that experts say Vice President Kamala Harris must energize and excite. About 850,000 Black Georgia residents did not vote in 2020.
“If you have anemic turnout among Black voters, that will spell doom for the Democratic ticket,” said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University.
Georgia voters, by race and education
Both parties will also be looking to appeal to a growing share of white voters with a bachelor’s degree, a group whose votes were split nearly evenly between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump in 2020.
2020 result: Biden won by 154,000 votes
Key groups: Suburban voters, Black voters, Arab American voters
The 2020 Electorate 5.5 million people voted
2 million people did not vote
What to watch In 2020, Mr. Biden won Michigan handily — at least by the standards of a battleground state.
But Mr. Trump performed very well with white residents in suburban and rural communities, who made up nearly two-thirds of the voters in the 2020 election.
Michigan voters by geography
Democrats’ strong performance among nonwhite voters and in the suburbs of Detroit helped erase Republicans’ advantage in the suburbs around smaller cities in 2020. But even though Black voters overwhelmingly supported Mr. Biden, they were a relatively small group — just 14 percent of those who cast ballots. And experts say that Black support for Democrats could be waning in Michigan.
“There’s definitely an attitude that they aren’t represented, in comparison to their population and their outsize role in the Democratic party,” said Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University. He pointed to Detroit, a majority-Black city that does not have any Black representation in Congress. “The feeling is, how much attention are you paying to us? And how much are you taking us for granted?”
Disillusionment among the estimated 3 percent of Michigan voters who are Muslim and Arab American — a traditionally strong Democratic constituency — could also make a difference this year. Many of these voters have voiced their anger and frustration with the Biden administration’s support for Israel in the war in Gaza, and some have said they may choose to sit out this election or cast ballots in favor of a third-party candidate.
2020 result: Biden won by 34,000 votes
Key groups: Nonwhite voters, voters without a college degree
The 2020 Electorate
1.4 million people voted
783,000 people did not vote
What to watch Nationally, education is a major political fault line, with college-educated voters far more likely to support the Democratic Party and less-educated voters favoring Republicans. But Nevada is the major exception to this rule: Democrats have won there in the past four elections, despite the state having a relatively low share of college-educated voters.
That’s because educational attainment divides mostly white voters, and many of Nevada’s less-educated voters are not white. Mr. Biden won half of the vote among voters without a four-year degree in Nevada, atypical for the nation as a whole.
Nevada voters by race and education
Over the last several years, inflation has hurt working-class voters, and concerns about the economy could make it easier for the Trump campaign to eat into the Democratic advantage with blue-collar voters of color.
“Nevada is a little bit of a different animal,” said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, pointing to the state’s low voter turnout, high diversity and more transient population. “This all means that there are a lot of potential untapped voters that could be mobilized.”
2020 result: Trump won by 74,000 votes
Key groups: Rural voters, suburban voters
The 2020 Electorate 5.5 million people voted
2.3 million people did not vote
What to watch In 2020, North Carolina gave Mr. Trump the narrowest lead of any state he won. Voters in rural areas, who accounted for nearly a fifth of the total, helped deliver Mr. Trump his victory.
North Carolina voters by geography
But North Carolina also has many small cities with a strong partisan divide between city-dwellers, who favor Democrats, and suburbanites, who favor Republicans.
For Democrats to flip the state, they must lose fewer votes in rural areas and increase voter turnout in smaller cities, like Greensboro and Asheville, said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.
“If we see a marginal movement away from Trump in rural areas, that’s really important,” he said. “The map will still show these places as red, but those differences can be the difference between winning and losing.”
2020 result: Biden won by 82,000 votes Key groups: Voters without a four-year college degree, suburban voters
The 2020 Electorate
6.9 million people voted
3 million people did not vote
What to watch As it does in other states, education plays a big role in the partisan divide in Pennsylvania. White voters without a bachelor’s degree made up nearly half the total, and they favored Mr. Trump three to one in 2020. Even so, that wasn’t enough for him to overcome the coalition of white voters with a college degree and voters of color who delivered Mr. Biden a victory.
The other big factor is geography.
Pennsylvania voters by geography
Mr. Trump dominated the state’s rural areas and small towns, as well as the Pittsburgh suburbs. But Mr. Biden had a strong showing in Pennsylvania’s cities and in the Philadelphia suburbs, areas that accounted for more than 40 percent of the votes in 2020.
2020 result: Biden won by 21,000 votes
Key groups: Rural voters, young voters
The 2020 Electorate
3.3 million people voted
1.1 million people did not vote
Wisconsin saw a similar geographic divide among voters. The bulk of Mr. Trump’s support came from the state’s more than 1,000 small towns and the outer suburbs of Milwaukee.
But the fastest-growing part of the state is an area that increasingly favors Democrats: the suburbs of Madison, home to the main campus of the University of Wisconsin.
Wisconsin voters by geography
In 2020, turnout in Dane County, which includes Madison, was 89 percent.
“It is among the highest turnout counties in the country,” said Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “The question for Democrats here is, is it even possible to squeeze more votes out of Dane County?”
Politics
Hochul endorses legislation to allow New Yorkers to sue ICE agents: ‘Power does not justify abuse’
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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is supporting legislation that would allow state residents to sue ICE agents for violating their constitutional rights.
The governor said on Tuesday during her State of the State address that she wants to allow New Yorkers to “hold ICE agents accountable in court when they act outside the scope of their duties.”
“This doesn’t interfere with lawful enforcement or public safety,” Hochul said. “It simply affirms a core truth: Power does not justify abuse. And if someone’s constitutional rights are violated here in the state of New York, I say they deserve their day in court.”
Last year, New York State Sen. Brad Hoylman-Sigal and Assemblymember Micah Lasher proposed measures to allow private citizens to file lawsuits against federal officials who violate their constitutional rights.
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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul is backing legislation that would allow state residents to sue ICE agents for violating their constitutional rights. (Julia Nikhinson/AP Photo)
Lasher’s version cites Title 42, Section 1983 of the U.S. Code, which allows people to sue state and local officials for violating their rights. The proposal highlights that New York does not have a law in place allowing citizens to sue federal officials.
“Every day, ICE is terrorizing our communities & violating our civil rights. We must be able to hold them accountable,” Lasher, who is running for Congress, wrote on X, adding that he is glad Hochul is taking up his legislation.
Multiple states, including California, Massachusetts and New Jersey, have implemented similar laws allowing residents to sue federal officials.
Hochul also proposed other immigration guardrails, including a measure to require judicial warrants before ICE can conduct raids in sensitive locations like schools, churches and hospitals.
People march during a protest after the killing of Renee Nicole Good in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Getty Images)
Earlier this year, the Trump administration reversed a Biden administration policy barring immigration arrests in these sensitive locations.
The governor also announced that New York “will not allow the use of state resources to assist in federal immigration raids on people who have not committed serious crimes.”
Department of Homeland Security spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin alleged in a statement to The Hill that Hochul “continues to smear law enforcement who are simply enforcing the rule of law and are putting their lives on the line to remove violent criminals from New York.”
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Renee Nicole Good, a U.S. citizen, was fatally shot by ICE agent Jonathan Ross in Minnesota. (Getty Images)
McLaughlin also argued that there has been an increase in threats against federal law enforcement officers who she purports have shown “incredible restraint and professionalism in exhausting all options before any kind of non-lethal force is used.”
This debate has intensified after a recent incident in Minneapoliss, where Renee Nicole Good, a U.S. citizen, was fatally shot by an ICE agent during an enforcement action. Protests followed in multiple cities, and Democrats and local residents have condemned the shooting and urged charges against the agent.
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The Trump administration and Republican lawmakers have defended the incident by arguing that it was a justified shooting.
Officials are also investigating a second ICE-involved shooting that happened in Minneapolis on Wednesday, as the mayor continues to demand that the agency leave the city and state.
A group of Los Angeles labor unions is proposing a ballot measure they say would combat income inequality in the city by raising taxes on companies whose chief executive officers make at least 50 times more than their median-paid employee.
The so-called Overpaid CEO Tax initiative was announced Wednesday at a rally outside Elon Musk’s Tesla Diner in West Hollywood, and featured union workers holding signs that read “Taxing greed to pay for what we need,” and a cartoon cutout of a boss carrying money bags and puffing a fat cigar.
“It’s high time the rich paid more taxes,” said Kurt Petersen, the co-president of Unite Here Local 11, which represents airport and hotel employees.
Sister Diane Smith of Clergy and Laity United for Economic Justice joins the Fair Games Coalition at a rally in West Hollywood on Wednesday.
(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
The proposal is sponsored by the Fair Games Coalition, a collection of labor groups that includes the Los Angeles teachers union, and comes on the heels of a statewide ballot proposal for a one-time 5% wealth tax on California billionaires that would raise money for healthcare for the most vulnerable.
Revenues raised by the CEO tax would be earmarked for specific purposes and not go directly to the city’s general fund.
According to proponents, 70% would go to the Working Families Housing Fund; 20% would go to the Street and Sidewalk Repairs Programs and 5% would go both to the After-School Programs Fund and the Fresh Food Access Fund.
In order to place the measure on the November ballot, supporters must collect 140,000 signatures in the next 120 days.
Critics say the proposal is misguided and would drive business away from the city.
“It would encourage companies that have minimal contact and business in Los Angeles to completely pull out,” said Stuart Waldman, head of the Valley Industry & Commerce Assn. “You’ll never see another hotel built in Los Angeles. It’s just one more thing that will drive business away.”
He added that $350 million for affordable housing would create about 350 units of affordable housing per year, which would not do much to affect the city’s housing crisis.
“That does nothing to help people. But on the contrary, that tax would do more to hurt people by pushing businesses out of Los Angeles and pushing jobs out of Los Angeles,” he said.
United Teachers-Los Angeles President Cecily Myart-Cruz said teachers support the proposal because it would not only raise money for after-school programs, but also help teachers find housing in L.A.
“They can’t live where we teach, because the prices are out of reach,” Myart-Cruz said.
Supporters argue that the tax will not chase businesses out of Los Angeles.
Kurt Petersen, co-president of Unite Here Local 11, speaks in favor of a measure that would increase taxes on companies whose chief executive officers make at least 50 times more than their median paid employee.
(Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times)
“Sure if they want to leave the second largest market in the country, go for it. But no one’s leaving that,” Petersen said.
The ordinance, if passed by voters, would impose an additional tax of up to 10 times the company’s regular business tax, based on the pay difference between the highest-paid employee at the company and the lowest, the initiative said.
According to the coalition, the current city business tax is between 0.1% and 0.425% of gross receipts.
If a top manager at a company makes between 50 and 100 times the median employee, the company will pay an “Overpaid CEO tax” equal to the business tax otherwise paid by the company. If the top manager makes greater than 500 times the median employee, the business would be required to pay an additional tax of 10 times the business tax otherwise owed.
“The bigger the gap, the higher the tax,” Petersen said.
Politics
Republicans light cigars, cigarettes on burning photos of Khamenei to show support for Iranian protesters
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Republican lawmakers are jumping on a social media trend to show their support for the anti-regime protesters in Iran.
Sen. Tim Sheehy, R-Mont., and Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., posted photos of themselves using burning photos of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to light up a cigarette and a cigar respectively. Both lawmakers used the caption “Smoke ’em if you got ’em.”
The lawmaker’s images mirror a social media trend in which people are using burning photos of Khamenei to light cigarettes and cigars. The trend emerged as the people of Iran hold increasingly intense protests against the Islamic regime. The movement against the regime has seen increasing support from abroad as world leaders back the people of Iran.
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People gather during a protest on Jan. 8, 2026, in Tehran, Iran. (Anonymous/Getty Images)
Khamenei’s regime has started to crack down on protests and even instituted a sweeping internet blackout to try to quell the unrest. Some have posited that the internet blackout was also meant to impede the spreading of information about and visuals of abuses committed against protesters by regime-backed forces.
Recently, exiled Iranian crown prince Reza Pahlavi has publicly urged President Donald Trump and the U.S. to back protesters in Iran as they fight the decades-old regime.
Sheehy told Fox News Digital that he takes the issue personally, saying that Iran has participated in the torturing, kidnapping and killing of Americans across the globe, “including friends of mine.”
“The Iranian regime are a bunch of murderous b——- who have been chanting ‘death to America’ for the past 46 years. They have backed up this chant by kidnapping, torturing, and killing thousands of Americans all over the world, including friends of mine. For me, it’s personal; it’s time to take out the trash,” Sheehy said in a statement provided to Fox News Digital via email.
Sen. Tim Sheehy, R-Mont., showed his solidarity with the people of Iran by hopping on a social media trend in which she used a burning photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to light a cigarette. (Courtesy of Sen. Tim Sheehy’s Office)
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The senator also expressed his solidarity with the people of Iran and encouraged them to keep fighting the regime.
“To the Iranian people — we applaud your courage, keep fighting, and know we fully support your brave efforts to topple this evil regime,” he added.
Tenney’s office also spoke with Fox News Digital about the congresswoman’s post, praising the bravery of the people of Iran for standing up to the regime. Additionally, Tenney’s office expressed the congresswoman’s solidarity with the Iranian people.
“The bravery of the Iranian people in the face of decades of oppression by a brutal, extremist regime is extraordinary. Men and women across Iran are risking their lives to stand up to authoritarian mullahs who have denied them basic freedoms for generations,” Tenney’s office said in a statement to Fox News Digital.
Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., showed her solidarity with the people of Iran by hopping on a social media trend in which she used a burning photo of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to light a cigar. (Courtesy of Rep. Claudia Tenney’s Office)
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“The congresswoman stands firmly with the Iranian people and their demand for dignity and self-determination, and believes their courage must be recognized and amplified. Today, the Iranian people finally have an ally in the White House, President Trump, who has made clear that the United States stands with those fighting for freedom against tyranny,” Tenney’s office added.
Trump has been vocal about his support for the people of Iran and has warned that the U.S. would be ready to step in if the regime used violence against protesters.
“Iran is looking at FREEDOM, perhaps like never before,” the president wrote in a Truth Social post on Jan. 10. “The USA stands ready to help!!!”
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