Politics
Which Battleground State Voters Could Sway the Election?
It’s no secret that the political sentiments of Americans follow lines of race and ethnicity, education and age. But what makes presidential elections so competitive is how these demographic groups often balance each other out.
Voters in key states in 2020
In 2024, this delicate equilibrium is key to understanding the seven battleground states where, according to the polls, the presidential race is closest. Last election, several of these states were decided by fewer than 40,000 votes. Since then, together they’ve added about 1.3 million potential voters, and the smallest shifts in sentiment or turnout among certain groups could be enough to alter the outcome of this election.
To better understand the demographic forces at play in the battlegrounds, The New York Times conducted a granular review of the 2020 contest and compared precinct-level results with census data to estimate who cast ballots and how they voted. We examined race and ethnicity, age, education and geography to identify trends and key groups in each state. (Gender is another growing factor in partisanship but was not part of this analysis.)
2020 result: Biden won by 10,000 votes Key groups: Latino voters, young voters
The 2020 Electorate
3.4 million people voted
1.7 million people did not vote
What to watch President Biden’s winning coalition relied heavily on Latino voters, who made up nearly a quarter of those who voted in 2020, a figure that will likely rise in this election. But while Latino voters in the state have typically favored Democrats, no group is a monolith.
Experts say Latinos have weaker party attachment than other nonwhite groups and could be persuaded to change their votes. Moreover, a significant share of this group is made up of U.S.-born, young Latinos who will vote for the first time, and their sentiment is less predictable. Recent surveys have shown former President Donald J. Trump making inroads with young people and voters of color.
Mr. Trump’s biggest support in 2020 came from white voters aged 35 and older. This group accounted for half of the ballots cast, due in part to the outsize number of white retirees in the state.
For Democrats, there are potentially more votes to gain. In 2020, there were more ballots cast for the Democratic Senate candidate than for Mr. Biden. “Those voters who voted for Mark Kelly but decided not to vote for Biden or Trump could have decided the outcome of the race,” said Samara Klara, a political science professor at the University of Arizona.
2020 result: Biden won by 12,000 votes
Key groups: Black voters, white voters with a college degree
The 2020 Electorate
5 million people voted
2.5 million people did not vote
What to watch Democrats in Georgia have long been guided by the “30/30 rule,” a term made popular by the University of Georgia political scientist Charles S. Bullock III. It says that in order for Democrats to win, Black voters must make up 30 percent of all voters and at least 30 percent of white voters must vote Democratic.
Black voters, who cast nearly a third of the ballots in 2020, overwhelmingly favored Mr. Biden — by almost 90 percent. But that reliable base of support appeared to be slipping earlier this year, and it’s a group that experts say Vice President Kamala Harris must energize and excite. About 850,000 Black Georgia residents did not vote in 2020.
“If you have anemic turnout among Black voters, that will spell doom for the Democratic ticket,” said Andra Gillespie, a political science professor at Emory University.
Georgia voters, by race and education
Both parties will also be looking to appeal to a growing share of white voters with a bachelor’s degree, a group whose votes were split nearly evenly between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump in 2020.
2020 result: Biden won by 154,000 votes
Key groups: Suburban voters, Black voters, Arab American voters
The 2020 Electorate 5.5 million people voted
2 million people did not vote
What to watch In 2020, Mr. Biden won Michigan handily — at least by the standards of a battleground state.
But Mr. Trump performed very well with white residents in suburban and rural communities, who made up nearly two-thirds of the voters in the 2020 election.
Michigan voters by geography
Democrats’ strong performance among nonwhite voters and in the suburbs of Detroit helped erase Republicans’ advantage in the suburbs around smaller cities in 2020. But even though Black voters overwhelmingly supported Mr. Biden, they were a relatively small group — just 14 percent of those who cast ballots. And experts say that Black support for Democrats could be waning in Michigan.
“There’s definitely an attitude that they aren’t represented, in comparison to their population and their outsize role in the Democratic party,” said Matt Grossmann, a political science professor at Michigan State University. He pointed to Detroit, a majority-Black city that does not have any Black representation in Congress. “The feeling is, how much attention are you paying to us? And how much are you taking us for granted?”
Disillusionment among the estimated 3 percent of Michigan voters who are Muslim and Arab American — a traditionally strong Democratic constituency — could also make a difference this year. Many of these voters have voiced their anger and frustration with the Biden administration’s support for Israel in the war in Gaza, and some have said they may choose to sit out this election or cast ballots in favor of a third-party candidate.
2020 result: Biden won by 34,000 votes
Key groups: Nonwhite voters, voters without a college degree
The 2020 Electorate
1.4 million people voted
783,000 people did not vote
What to watch Nationally, education is a major political fault line, with college-educated voters far more likely to support the Democratic Party and less-educated voters favoring Republicans. But Nevada is the major exception to this rule: Democrats have won there in the past four elections, despite the state having a relatively low share of college-educated voters.
That’s because educational attainment divides mostly white voters, and many of Nevada’s less-educated voters are not white. Mr. Biden won half of the vote among voters without a four-year degree in Nevada, atypical for the nation as a whole.
Nevada voters by race and education
Over the last several years, inflation has hurt working-class voters, and concerns about the economy could make it easier for the Trump campaign to eat into the Democratic advantage with blue-collar voters of color.
“Nevada is a little bit of a different animal,” said David Damore, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, pointing to the state’s low voter turnout, high diversity and more transient population. “This all means that there are a lot of potential untapped voters that could be mobilized.”
2020 result: Trump won by 74,000 votes
Key groups: Rural voters, suburban voters
The 2020 Electorate 5.5 million people voted
2.3 million people did not vote
What to watch In 2020, North Carolina gave Mr. Trump the narrowest lead of any state he won. Voters in rural areas, who accounted for nearly a fifth of the total, helped deliver Mr. Trump his victory.
North Carolina voters by geography
But North Carolina also has many small cities with a strong partisan divide between city-dwellers, who favor Democrats, and suburbanites, who favor Republicans.
For Democrats to flip the state, they must lose fewer votes in rural areas and increase voter turnout in smaller cities, like Greensboro and Asheville, said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.
“If we see a marginal movement away from Trump in rural areas, that’s really important,” he said. “The map will still show these places as red, but those differences can be the difference between winning and losing.”
2020 result: Biden won by 82,000 votes Key groups: Voters without a four-year college degree, suburban voters
The 2020 Electorate
6.9 million people voted
3 million people did not vote
What to watch As it does in other states, education plays a big role in the partisan divide in Pennsylvania. White voters without a bachelor’s degree made up nearly half the total, and they favored Mr. Trump three to one in 2020. Even so, that wasn’t enough for him to overcome the coalition of white voters with a college degree and voters of color who delivered Mr. Biden a victory.
The other big factor is geography.
Pennsylvania voters by geography
Mr. Trump dominated the state’s rural areas and small towns, as well as the Pittsburgh suburbs. But Mr. Biden had a strong showing in Pennsylvania’s cities and in the Philadelphia suburbs, areas that accounted for more than 40 percent of the votes in 2020.
2020 result: Biden won by 21,000 votes
Key groups: Rural voters, young voters
The 2020 Electorate
3.3 million people voted
1.1 million people did not vote
Wisconsin saw a similar geographic divide among voters. The bulk of Mr. Trump’s support came from the state’s more than 1,000 small towns and the outer suburbs of Milwaukee.
But the fastest-growing part of the state is an area that increasingly favors Democrats: the suburbs of Madison, home to the main campus of the University of Wisconsin.
Wisconsin voters by geography
In 2020, turnout in Dane County, which includes Madison, was 89 percent.
“It is among the highest turnout counties in the country,” said Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “The question for Democrats here is, is it even possible to squeeze more votes out of Dane County?”
Politics
Video: Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
new video loaded: Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
transcript
transcript
Jan. 6 Rioter Hired by Pentagon
Elias Irizarry, who pleaded guilty to climbing through a broken window at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, now works for an office responsible for uncovering and defending against terrorism plots at the Pentagon.
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“Full pardon or commutation?” “Full pardon.”
By Alisa Shodiyev Kaff
June 4, 2026
Politics
Democrats split over Tlaib’s Lebanon measure as Republicans seize on Hezbollah omission
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Democrats splintered over a resolution seeking to block the U.S. from assisting Israel’s war against Hezbollah, an Iranian-backed terrorist group, on Thursday.
The measure, offered by progressive Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Mich., would require President Donald Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from Lebanon. For months, Israel and Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terrorist group and Iranian proxy, have been at war in southern Lebanon, but the United States has not joined the conflict.
A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., rejected the measure. Critics argued the resolution could aid Hezbollah and potentially hamstring U.S. military operations in the country.
Tlaib’s resolution failed 92-324, with more than half of House Democrats joining nearly all Republicans to vote it down.
The Lebanon war powers resolution divided Democrats, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., joining Republicans in rejecting the measure. (Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg)
REP RASHIDA TLAIB MOVES TO BLOCK US OPERATIONS IN LEBANON BUT IGNORES HEZBOLLAH
Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., an Israel critic, was the lone Republican to support Tlaib’s measure. Meanwhile, Reps. Derek Tran, D-Calif., and Betty McCollum, D-Minn., voted present.
House Democratic leaders said shortly before the vote they would oppose Tlaib’s resolution and work with the progressive lawmaker on a narrower measure exempting some U.S. military operations in the country. Their statement also denounced Hezbollah as a “violent terrorist organization” and a “sworn enemy of the United States.”
Tlaib, who has accused Israel of committing “ethnic cleansing” in Lebanon, did not mention Hezbollah in her resolution. She and other proponents of the measure also avoided discussing the Iranian proxy force during heated floor debate over the measure.
Republicans highlighted the omission and accused the legislation’s supporters of serving as “proxies for Hezbollah.”
“Apparently they don’t want to see Israel killing Hezbollah, even though it’s Hezbollah that is killing Israeli children, Israeli adults, Israeli elders,” House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Brian Mast, R-Fla., said Wednesday, referring to his Democratic colleagues.
Tlaib asserted that her resolution would only affect U.S. forces actively engaged in hostilities. Republicans, however, disputed that claim and suggested it would hurt U.S. efforts to counter Hezbollah.
“It doesn’t say anything about [whether] you can keep the Marines that are in the embassy,” Mast said, referring to the U.S. embassy in Beirut. “That’s a pretty big oversight. It doesn’t say anything about whether we can keep United States armed forces that are training missions with the LAF [Lebanese Armed Forces]. Again, pretty big oversight.”
Rep. Rashida Tlaib, a Democrat from Michigan, attempted to bar U.S. forces from joining Israel’s war in Lebanon. (Tierney L. Cross/Bloomberg)
RASHIDA TLAIB HIT WITH HOUSE CENSURE THREAT, ACCUSED OF ‘CELEBRATING TERRORISM’ IN PRO-PALESTINIAN SPEECH
The debate turned personal when Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, linked Tlaib to Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah is a terrorist organization … and its members are butchers that you like to hang out with to a certain extent,” the Ohio lawmaker said, referring to Tlaib.
A shouting match between the two then broke out, with Tlaib demanding that Miller’s remarks be stricken from the record.
The presiding chair ultimately complied with her request, but Miller doubled down on his remarks.
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“Yes, I said it. I own it, and I stand by it,” Mast said on behalf of Miller on the floor.
Tlaib’s failed war powers resolution comes as Iran has sought to tie Israel’s invasion of Lebanon to its ceasefire negotiations with the United States.
Hezbollah, which has long helped Iran project power in the region, rejected a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon’s government Thursday.
Politics
Senate rejects an initial attempt to ban Trump’s $1.8-billion ‘anti-weaponization’ fund
WASHINGTON — Initial efforts in the Senate failed Thursday to block the $1.8-billion fund that the Trump administration has sought to establish to pay people who claim the government wronged them, though further attempts were likely to come Thursday afternoon.
Republicans narrowly voted down a Democratic amendment to ban the payout fund and then Democrats killed a Republican amendment, which would have prohibited the use of federal money for the fund but would have sent $1.7 billion to the Justice Department’s fraud division.
It was the second effort in Congress to rebuke President Trump in two days, following the House vote Wednesday to rein in Trump’s war powers in Iran.
The dueling amendments were proposed by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). They were attached to the reconciliation bill that would fund Immigration and Customs Enforcement and the Border Patrol, a high priority for Republicans.
The votes came as the Senate began a “vote-a-rama,” during which lawmakers were expected to propose a stream of amendments to the immigration bill on various topics.
The Trump administration’s plan for the payment fund — widely seen as a way for Trump to compensate his political allies, including those who participated in the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol — set off particular ire from some GOP lawmakers.
The plan has fueled growing unrest within parts of Trump’s party over his governance, compounded by the president’s endorsement of primary challengers to Sens. John Cornyn (R-Texas) and Bill Cassidy (R-La.), as well as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), which angered some Republican senators.
Cassidy, who lost his primary and has since voiced strong opposition to Trump’s $1.8-billion fund, became a key player in the Thursday votes, voting down Schumer’s amendment but supporting Tillis’.
On Wednesday, Cassidy joined with Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) to argue in a court filing that the $1.8-billion fund circumvents Congress’ authority and violates the Constitution’s spending and appropriations clauses.
“It is an unconstitutional attempt to spend the People’s money without Congressional approval,” Cassidy and Booker wrote in an amicus brief filed in the federal court case challenging the fund.
The fund was created by the Justice Department to settle a lawsuit brought by Trump against the Internal Revenue Service over the leak of his tax returns. Trump and his sons agreed to drop their personal lawsuit against the government in exchange for the creation of the $1.776-billion fund. Critics immediately questioned the plan, and it drew a rare backlash from Republicans.
In late May, GOP senators derailed plans to vote on the immigration bill over their displeasure with the payout fund and with Trump’s desire to use taxpayer funds for his planned White House ballroom. Senate Republicans removed the ballroom funding from the immigration package Wednesday, another setback for Trump.
The Trump administration sought to back away from its plans for the fund this week, following bipartisan outcry and a federal court ruling that temporarily blocked any payouts from the fund. Acting Atty. Gen. Todd Blanche said Tuesday the administration would end its plans to move ahead with the concept.
But Trump on Wednesday told reporters he didn’t know whether the fund was dead, calling it “a beautiful thing.”
After Schumer proposed the first amendment to ban the fund Thursday morning, the Senate came to a standstill as three key Republican senators deliberated. Schumer framed his effort to ban the fund Thursday as a way to force a referendum on Trump’s plan.
The amendment “offers Republicans a choice: Do you support Donald Trump’s $2 billion taxpayer-funded slush fund, or do you want to protect the American people and their paychecks?” Schumer said on the Senate floor before the vote.
Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) urged Republicans to reject the amendment, saying Democrats were planning to “play so many games” on Thursday during the marathon session.
“We are going to fund immigration enforcement and border patrol, and I urge my Republican colleagues to stay united on that singular mission,” Moreno said.
The amendment failed after Cassidy voted against it. Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Jon Husted of Ohio and Dan Sullivan of Alaska voted in favor.
Schumer’s amendment was uniformly supported by Democrats, including California Sens. Adam Schiff and Alex Padilla.
Tillis, who also voted against Schumer’s amendment, immediately proposed his amendment. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) urged Democrats to oppose it, saying that the proposal would create “a new slush fund” by giving the money to the Justice Department.
“We heard over the last 48 hours that the acting attorney general said that this fund’s not moving forward. All this amendment does is codify what I believe the policy of the DOJ is,” Tillis said on the floor before voting began on his amendment. “This [fund] is unpopular, this administration has said they’re not moving forward with it; this is an opportunity for us to put it to bed.”
Responded Merkley: “Taking one slush fund and eliminating it and then creating a new slush fund still under control of the attorney general is not the way to go. The way to go is to get rid of these slush funds altogether.”
Trump has faced a recent string of failures, including the House vote Wednesday, a court ruling to remove his name from the Kennedy Center and a record-low approval rating among Americans as concern rises about economic issues, gas prices and Trump’s war with Iran.
On Wednesday, Trump lashed out against the four Republicans who backed the House war powers resolution, calling it “an unpatriotic thing” to do and calling the vote “meaningless.”
“They’re GRANDSTANDERS! They should be ashamed of themselves. MAGA!!! President DJT,” Trump wrote.
Times staff writer Ana Ceballos, in Washington, contributed to this report.
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