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Top Federal Reserve officials leave door open for large interest rate cuts if data worsens

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Top Federal Reserve officials leave door open for large interest rate cuts if data worsens

Top Federal Reserve officials have left the door open to half-point interest rate cuts, even as they signalled the US central bank would move cautiously at its meeting this month following a mixed jobs report on Friday.

In appearances on Friday, governor Christopher Waller and president John Williams of the New York Fed endorsed a series of rates cuts this year given the fall in inflation and softening of the US labour market.

Now that “downside risks” had increased, Waller said the economic backdrop “requires action” from the Fed to avoid undue damage to the labour market, which he said was “continuing to soften but not deteriorate”.

Waller stressed the economy was “performing in a solid manner” with “good” prospects for continued growth, adding he expected rate cuts would be “done carefully”. The latest jobs report, he said in a moderated discussion, was no cause for panic but represented a return to a more “normal” pace of growth.

But he signalled he was open to cutting more aggressively if the data warranted it — comments that sparked a rally in US Treasuries.

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“If the data suggests the need for larger cuts, then I will support that,” he said.

The two-year Treasury yield, which closely tracks interest rate expectations, dropped 0.1 percentage point to 3.65 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield fell 0.02 percentage points to 3.71 per cent.

Fed funds futures markets fluctuated on Friday, at one point pricing in a higher probability of a half-point rate cut from the Fed this month. Those bets were scaled back, however, but traders still expect more than a full percentage point of cuts this year, suggesting the central bank may have to escalate its response.

US stocks also sank on Friday, with the S&P 500 down 1.7 per cent and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite gauge shedding 2.5 per cent by the mid-afternoon in New York.

Williams also signalled that the Fed would react to incoming data as needed even as he underscored the economy remains on solid footing and monetary policy was “well positioned” to keep it that way.

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Their comments came just after data showed the US added 142,000 jobs in August, while the unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.2 per cent.

The figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Friday came in below economists’ expectations for 165,000 new positions but surpassed the downwardly revised 89,000 jobs created in July.

A month ago, the BLS reported employment in July rose by just 114,000, which lifted the unemployment rate to 4.3 per cent and sparked concerns that the world’s largest economy was heading for a recession.

Fed officials will meet on September 17-18 when they are expected to agree to lower rates by a quarter point from their current 23-year high of 5.25 per cent to 5.5 per cent.

Analysts said market expectations for a 0.5 percentage point cut in September was an overreaction.

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“The market is overly worried about a recession, and this report shows that there is no sign of a recession,” Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management’s chief economist, said. “There is no need to go 50 [basis points] when the unemployment rate is falling.”

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Fed officials are scrutinising the labour market for signs of weakness as they try to push inflation back down to the central bank’s 2 per cent target, which is based on the annual change in the personal consumption expenditures index.

Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy prices and is closely watched by policymakers, was 2.6 per cent in August, compared with a peak of more than 5 per cent in 2022.

The increase in August payrolls was in line with the average pace of jobs growth in recent months but marked a slowdown from the monthly gain of 202,000 over the past 12 months, according to the BLS. Construction and healthcare sectors were the strongest. The manufacturing sector recorded job losses.

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Combined, employment in June and July was 86,000 roles lower than previously reported, stoking concerns that the labour market started losing momentum earlier than thought. For the month, average hourly earnings increased 0.4 per cent, translating to a 3.8 per cent year-on-year rise.

Williams forecast the unemployment rate would steady at about 4.25 per cent this year as the economy expanded by as much as 2.5 per cent, indicating little concern about an impending recession.

While Tom Porcelli, chief US economist at PGIM Fixed Income, does not expect the Fed to deliver a half-point cut this month, he said the data warrants multiple ones, underscoring the vast range of views about the economic outlook.

“If you’re waiting for evidence to show up in the most lagging of economic indicators — the payrolls report — then you are already late,” he said.

In an interview on Friday, former New York Fed president William Dudley said he was also fearful the Fed was moving too slowly, having previously advocated for the central bank to cut rates in July. He said both a recession and a soft landing were “in play”.

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Under Trump, Green Card Seekers Face New Scrutiny for Views on Israel

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Under Trump, Green Card Seekers Face New Scrutiny for Views on Israel

For decades, immigrants who have followed the rules and have not broken the law have had hopes of earning a green card, a document that allows them to live legally in the United States and gain a path to citizenship.

But under new guidance issued by the Trump administration, immigrants can now be denied a green card for expressing political opinions, such as participating in pro-Palestinian campus protests, posting criticism of Israel on social media and desecrating the American flag, according to internal Department of Homeland Security training materials reviewed by The New York Times.

The documents, which have not been previously reported, show how expansively the Trump administration is carrying out a directive from last August to vet green card applicants for “anti-American” and “antisemitic” views.

The administration includes criticism of Israel as a potentially disqualifying factor, with the training materials citing as an example of questionable speech a social media post that declares, “Stop Israeli Terror in Palestine” and shows the Israeli flag crossed out.

The materials were distributed last month to immigration officers at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security and handles applications for green cards and other forms of legal status.

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They reflect how U.S.C.I.S. — long considered the gateway agency for legal migration — has rapidly transformed under President Trump into another cog in his administration’s deportation machine. The agency has worked to strip naturalized Americans of their citizenship and has hired armed federal agents to investigate immigration crimes.

The administration is also granting permanent legal residency to far fewer applicants. Green card approvals have fallen by more than half in recent months, according to a Times analysis of agency data.

“There is no room in America for aliens who espouse anti-American ideologies or support terrorist organizations,” Joseph Edlow, the agency’s director, told Congress in February.

Critics of Mr. Trump’s approach say the administration is seeking to restrict legitimate political speech, and has conflated opposition to Israeli government policies with antisemitism.

Basing green card decisions on “ideological screenings is fundamentally un-American and should have no place in a country built on the promise of free expression,” said Amanda Baran, a senior agency official under President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

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Administration officials said they were defending American values.

“If you hate America, you have no business demanding to live in America,” said Zach Kahler, a spokesman for U.S.C.I.S.

Abigail Jackson, a White House spokeswoman, said the administration’s policies had “nothing to do with free speech” and were meant to protect “American institutions, the safety of citizens, national security and the freedoms of the United States.”

The administration has moved aggressively against immigrants for expressing political views that officials have deemed anti-American, making ideology a central part of its immigration vetting process. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has revoked the visas of pro-Palestinian student activists, including one who wrote a column criticizing her university’s response to pro-Palestinian demands.

The Department of Homeland Security has proposed reviewing the social media histories of tourists seeking to visit the United States.

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Immigration officers have significant discretion in deciding whether to grant foreigners long-term permanent residence. They have long considered a variety of factors, including criminal records, national security threats, family ties to the United States and employment histories.

Ideology has also traditionally been one of those factors. In some cases, U.S. law forbids officers from granting green cards to people who have belonged to a Communist or other “totalitarian” political party, have promoted anarchy or have called for the overthrow of the U.S. government by “force or violence or other unconstitutional means.”

But in the past, immigration officers have focused on statements that could incite or encourage violence, given concerns about infringing on constitutionally protected speech, former U.S.C.I.S. officials said.

The new training materials reviewed by The Times guide immigration officers through the factors they should consider when ruling on green card applications. They discourage officers from granting green cards to people with a history of “endorsing, promoting or supporting anti-American views” or “antisemitic terrorism, ideologies or groups.”

Immigration officers have been told to weigh those factors as “overwhelmingly negative.”

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The documents list support for “subversive” ideologies as among other factors that could lead to an application being rejected. As an example, the materials point to someone “holding a sign advocating overthrow of the U.S. government.”

In addition, the guidance describes the desecration of the American flag as a negative factor, citing Mr. Trump’s executive order last year directing the Justice Department to prosecute protesters who burn the flag. The Supreme Court has ruled that flag burning is a form of political expression protected by the First Amendment.

Immigration officers have also been told to scrutinize applicants who encourage antisemitism “through rhetorical or physical actions.” They were instructed to “focus particularly on aliens who engaged in on-campus anti-American and antisemitic activities” after the Hamas attacks against Israel in 2023, the documents show.

Further examples in the documents of conduct characterized as antisemitic include a social media post showing a map of Israel with the nation’s name crossed out and replaced with the word “Palestine.” Another illustrative post suggests that Israelis should “taste what people in Gaza are tasting.”

Immigration officers must elevate all cases involving “potential anti-American and/or antisemitic conduct or ideology” to their managers and to the agency’s general counsel’s office for review, according to the documents.

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In recent months, the agency has also changed the way it refers to the employees who adjudicate green card applications, long known as “immigration services officers.” In job postings, it now calls them “homeland defenders.”

“Protect your homeland and defend your culture,” one posting says.

Steven Rich contributed reporting.

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America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war

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America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war

Additional work by Jana Tauschinski

Oil and gas tanker location and destination data are from Kpler. The map shows the latest position for vessels with an active AIS signal on April 19–20, filtered by minimum capacity thresholds: crude tankers of at least 50,000 deadweight tonnage (DWT); oil product tankers of at least 55,000 DWT; oil/chemical tankers of at least 40,000 DWT; LNG carriers of at least 150,000 cubic metres; and LPG carriers of at least 50,000 cubic metres. Net fossil fuel import data by country are based on Ember analysis of the IEA World Energy Balances 2023.

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Roommate faces murder charges in deaths of 2 University of South Florida doctoral students

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Roommate faces murder charges in deaths of 2 University of South Florida doctoral students

A 26-year-old man is facing two counts of first-degree murder in the deaths of two University of South Florida doctoral students who went missing last week, local authorities said Saturday. 

The Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office in Florida said that evidence presented to the state attorney’s office resulted in the charges against Hisham Abugharbieh, the roommate of Zamil Limon, one of the doctoral students. 

Abugharbieh is accused of premediated murder with a weapon. He was arrested on Friday, the same day Limon was found dead. 

The family of Nahida Bristy, the other doctoral student, told CBS News that police said she is also likely dead. That is based on the volume of blood discovered at Abugharbieh’s residence, which he shared with Limon.

“Police told us she is no longer with us,” Bristy’s brother, Zahid Prato, said early Saturday.

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The family was told her body may never be found and police believe she may have been dismembered, according to Prato. 

CBS News has reached out to police for more information.

Authorities said in a statement Saturday they were still searching for Bristy.

Limon’s remains were found on the Howard Franklin Bridge in Tampa Friday morning, Chief Deputy Joseph Maurer with the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office said. His cause of death was pending autopsy results.

Deputies with the sheriff’s office took Abugharbieh into custody on Friday after responding to a domestic violence call at a home in the Lake Forest Community, a neighborhood near USF’s Tampa campus, officials said. He also faces charges of domestic violence and evidence tampering, as well as a charge of failing to report a death to law enforcement.

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Limon and Bristy, both 27, had last been seen in the Tampa area on April 16. 

Limon was studying the use of AI in environmental science and was set to present his doctoral thesis this week, his family said. Bristy is studying chemical engineering. 

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