Atlanta, GA
Braves repeat their mistakes, walked off by Phillies 3-2 in 11
If you watched the entirety of the Braves’ 3-2, walkoff loss to the Phillies on Sunday night, I’m sorry. If you didn’t, but you did watch their 5-4 loss to open this series back on Thursday, well, you didn’t miss much. At this point, the Braves are making the same mistake over and over, and their injury-riddled roster isn’t able to overcome it. So it goes, except where it’s going is a pretty lame place.
To recap: on Thursday, the Braves let Charlie Morton persist far too long despite not pitching particularly well, leading to a big blow. Then, Grant Holmes doubled up on fastballs to Nick Castellanos, and paid the price, as a two-run homer turned a one-run lead into a one-run deficit that become a one-run loss.
So, on Sunday, the Braves let Spencer Schwellenbach persist far too long despite not pitching particularly well, leading to a big blow that, in Schwellenbach’s defense, was not really his fault, just poor fortune to have two softly-hit bloops find paydirt, followed by an okay hit ball that split the defense instead of going towards an outfielder. Then, after the Atlanta bullpen shone as brightly as they have all season, forcing a tie game all the way into the 11th, the Braves botched a double play chance, and asked Holmes to face Castellanos with two outs and the winning run on third. In a 1-2 count, Holmes threw a fastball down the middle, and Castellanos hit it back up the box to end the game.
It feels weird to lose the first and last game of the series in this very specific way, but mostly everything about this season has been the bad kind of weird. I’m not really even sure it’s worth recapping the game in full, because fundamentally, blah.
The Braves got on the board first, thanks to a two-out solo homer by Michael Harris II off Aaron Nola in the third. A walk, a single, and Whit Merrifield beating out a double play ball scored a second run in the fourth.
Spencer Schwellenbach didn’t pitch particularly well, which is more or less where the trouble began. He had an 0/1 K/BB ratio through two innings, and his only two strikeouts of the game came within a span of three batters in one of his two perfect frames. He had a fairly low pitch count, which is something akin to the kiss of death for a Braves starter once the middle innings roll around, and in this case, said kiss was sloppy and gross as well as being toxic. Basically, Trea Turner hit a soft bloop to right, and then Bryce Harper hit the uber-bloop at around 65 mph down the left field line, putting the tying run on second. Schwellenbach got ahead of Castellanos 0-2, despite hanging a slider on the second pitch, and then hung another slider, which was hit into left-center to tie the game.
Again, there’s no knock on Schwellenbach here in particular — you live by the BABIP, you die by the BABIP. The only real issue was, again, the lack of urgency. Schwellenbach wasn’t pitching that well, relying on balls finding gloves, pretty much all game. Castellanos came up with the leverage index above 3.00, i.e., more than triple the importance of the average situation. The Braves are hanging on to a playoff spot by a thread, every other relevant team in the Wild Card race had already won, and, oh, again — they got burned by the exact same lack of urgency earlier in this series. But, you know, once more into the breach.
Much of the rest of the game, until Holmes was asked to face Castellanos again, was basically what happens when neither the Island of Misfit Toys nor the few legitimate bats in the lineup can do anything.
The Braves got a leadoff walk in the seventh, but it was erased on a double play. There was a leadoff single in the eighth, but Jeff Hoffman blew Jorge Soler away with an elevated fastball, which apparently caused Marcell Ozuna to sit on the fastball for four straight pitches, of which only one was a fastball (and it was too high and inside to offer at), and on which Ozuna struck out in pretty pathetic fashion. Matt Strahm suffered some serious issues in the ninth… or maybe he was just keenly aware that walking the bases loaded to face Orlando Arcia and Luke Williams (who pinch-ran to enter the game, to no avail, in the eighth) is apparently a legitimate strategy.
The Braves didn’t score in extras, either, though there was a bunch of weird stuff there, including pinch-hitting Adam Duvall, who hadn’t had a PA in over a week, to face a righty, to replace Eli White, who himself came in as a defensive replacement. In the 11th, both Travis d’Arnaud and Merrifield failed to score Ozuna from third with one out, just like Arcia and Williams a few innings earlier.
While all of this was playing out, the bullpen was oh so good. This bullpen, especially when the dregs aren’t asked to get outs, and a modicum of handedness is paid attention to, is straight nails. The team doesn’t seem to care, though, but again, so it goes. A combination of Dylan Lee, Pierce Johnson, Joe Jimenez, Raisel Iglesias (for two innings), and Aaron Bummer combined to post a 7/2 K/BB ratio in five innings, and one of those walks was a really bizarre sequence where Bummer, after retiring Kyle Schwarber, was not asked to intentionally walk Turner despite Turner’s run being completely irrelevant — he walked him anyway, but what a completely useless gamble the Braves took there.
Anyway, that brought the game to the sequence where Bryce Harper faced Bummer and hit what should’ve been a double play ball right at Williams. The problem was that Williams threw to Merrifield, who wasn’t at the second base bag yet, and Merrifield had to awkwardly run to the base and throw across his body, which let Harper reach safely. A few pitches later, Holmes made the same mistake he made on Thursday, and here we are.
The Braves will now return home to face the Rockies, but at this point, especially at this point, it’s clear that it’s no longer about whom they face. It’s more just — will this be a game where the deliberate decision to let your starter go a third time through blows up in their face? If no, then they’ll win. If yes, well, you hope at least some of the bats will come through, or else it’ll be another game like this one.
The Braves have 25 games to run out the clock on the final playoff spot, or I guess make a run and take one of the higher ones, though that seems unlikely at the moment. They could make things easier for themselves, but let’s be real: if they didn’t do it in this series, or in this game, after they already lost a game in this series to the exact same stuff — when are they going to?
Atlanta Hawks (46-36, sixth in the Eastern Conference) vs. New York Knicks (53-29, third in the Eastern Conference)
New York; Monday, 8 p.m. EDT
LINE: Knicks -5.5; over/under is 216.5
EASTERN CONFERENCE FIRST ROUND: Knicks lead series 1-0
BOTTOM LINE: The New York Knicks host the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference first round with a 1-0 lead in the series. The Knicks won the last matchup 113-102 on Saturday, led by 28 points from Jalen Brunson. CJ McCollum led the Hawks with 26.
The Knicks are 35-17 in Eastern Conference games. New York has a 9-4 record in one-possession games.
The Hawks are 27-25 in Eastern Conference play. Atlanta is third in the league scoring 18.1 fast break points per game. McCollum leads the Hawks averaging 5.0.
The Knicks are shooting 47.8% from the field this season, 0.4 percentage points higher than the 47.4% the Hawks allow to opponents. The Hawks are shooting 47.4% from the field, 1.4% higher than the 46.0% the Knicks’ opponents have shot this season.
TOP PERFORMERS: Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 20.1 points and 11.9 rebounds for the Knicks. Brunson is averaging 19.9 points over the last 10 games.
Dyson Daniels is scoring 11.9 points per game and averaging 6.8 rebounds for the Hawks. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is averaging 21.3 points and 2.9 rebounds over the last 10 games.
LAST 10 GAMES: Knicks: 6-4, averaging 110.4 points, 40.7 rebounds, 26.2 assists, 8.4 steals and 3.3 blocks per game while shooting 49.4% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 106.9 points per game.
Hawks: 5-5, averaging 117.2 points, 43.5 rebounds, 27.7 assists, 8.4 steals and 4.7 blocks per game while shooting 47.2% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 112.0 points.
INJURIES: Knicks: Tyler Kolek: day to day (oblique), Mitchell Robinson: day to day (ankle), Karl-Anthony Towns: day to day (elbow).
Hawks: Jock Landale: out (ankle).
___
The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.
Atlanta, GA
Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks prediction, pick for Game 1 of 2026 NBA Playoffs first round
Sean Barnard details his preview and prediction for Saturday’s Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks matchup in the NBA Playoffs.
The NBA playoffs are officially underway with a loaded opening round. Taking place in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 matchup in the Eastern Conference, the Atlanta Hawks will take on the New York Knicks.
You can check out the full series preview on DraftKings Network here.
Looking at the odds for the series opener, the Knicks enter as 6.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hawks are +205 underdogs with the game total set at O/U 218.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Eastern Conference series opener.
Hawks vs. Knicks prediction, preview
The Atlanta Hawks went through a midseason transition, moving on from Trae Young after he headlined the production for the franchise for the past eight years. The Hawks have not missed a beat amid the major midseason shakeup, finishing as the sixth seed in the conference with a 46-36 overall record. On the season, Atlanta has gone 44-38 against the spread, and the game total has gone 41-41 to the over/under.
Jock Landale is the only player set to miss the matchup tonight. Jalen Johnson headlines the production, posting averages of 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has had a breakout season in a new location, adding 20.8 points, 3.7 assists, and 3.4 rebounds per game. CJ McCollum adds 18.7 points and 4.1 assists across his first 41 games with the organization, while Dyson Daniels, Onyeka Okongwu, Jonathan Kuminga, and Zaccharie Risacher also play notable roles.
Quin Snyder’s group scores 118.5 points per game, which ranks sixth in the NBA. The Hawks also rank 14th in offensive rating, 13th in field goal percentage, and fifth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 116.0 points per game against Atlanta, which ranks 18th in the league. They also rank ninth in defensive rating, 18th in opponent field goal percentage, and 12th in opponent three-point percentage.
The New York Knicks entered the season with legitimate title aspirations. They have had some notable ups and downs, but now face this opportunity. New York finished the regular season with a 53-29 record and sit in third place in the East. The Knicks have gone 44-39 against the spread, and the game total has gone 38-45 to the over/under.
The Knicks enter this matchup with a clear injury report and a large sample size of the team playing together. Jalen Brunson headlines the production with 26.0 points, 6.8 assists, and 3.3 rebounds, while Karl-Anthony Towns pitches in 20.1 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists of his own. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are responsible for the production at the wing positions, while Josh Hart sets the tone for this team from a hustle standpoint. New York also did an impressive job building out the bench unit this season, with players like Jordan Clarkson, Mitchell Robinson, Landry Shamet, and Tyler Kolek capable of serving as X-factors off the bench.
As a team, the Knicks are scoring 116.5 points per game, which ranks 10th in the NBA. New York also ranks third in offense rating, 11th in field goal percentage, and fourth in three-point percentage. Defensively, opponents are scoring 110.1 points per game against the Knicks, which ranks fifth in the league. They also rank seventh in defensive rating, fifth in opponent field goal percentage, and 20th in opponent three-point percentage.
Hawks vs. Knicks pick, best bet
These are two teams at different stages of their timeline, but neither will be afraid of this playoff spotlight. The Knicks pushed their chips in around this core and are hoping to be rewarded for it. They fell to the Indiana Pacers in the Conference Finals last year and have made the postseason in four consecutive seasons. Atlanta missed out on the playoffs in back-to-back years and turned a new page direction with Jalen Johnson now leading the charge. Without Trae Young, the Hawks now lean on more of a defensive-minded identity and have a roster loaded with athleticism.
During the regular season, these teams faced off three times. They split the first two matchups, which took place on December 27th and January 2nd. New York picked up a narrow 108-105 victory in the most recent game, which took place on April 6th. Both sides were aware that this was a potential postseason matchup, and this game had some major seeding implications. It was an evenly matched game in which neither team was able to extend a lead beyond 10 points, and the rebounding battle was separated by just one board. The biggest discrepancy came with the Knicks shooting 50% compared to the Hawks shooting 40%, and New York outscoring Atlanta 52-34 in the paint.
While there are higher expectations for this Knicks team in the postseason outlook, the Hawks stack up fairly well in this matchup. Jalen Brunson will be at the heart of the offensive attack for New York. But his biggest weakness is when he is guarded by high-level athletes with a size advantage over him. The Hawks have built out a roster loaded with this archetype of player, and there is not a clear matchup for Brunson to hunt in most lineup combinations.
Brunson has enough experience and savvy to will settle in over the course of the series. But expect some growing pains in the early parts of this matchup, and for this to be a huge hurdle for this Knicks team. I am backing the Hawks to cover the 5.5-point spread and would not be shocked if they steal the opening game. This is a series in which neither side should be expected to pull away by major margins throughout. Count on Atlanta to have defense success and have a clear gameplan for limiting the impact of Brunson. Expect this matchup to come down to the wire and take the points in the series opener.
Best Bet: Hawks +6.5 (-112)
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