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Details Emerge on Broncos’ Decision Not to Trade Courtland Sutton

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Details Emerge on Broncos’ Decision Not to Trade Courtland Sutton


Recently, the San Francisco 49ers extended disgrunteled wide receiver Brando Aiyuk after months of trade speculation, and along the way, the Denver Broncos were linked. According to reports by ESPN’s Dianna Russini and Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer, the Broncos were involved in a potential trade that never was. 

We learned after the extension that the Niners wanted a receiver to replace Aiyuk, if he were to be traded, and they had their eyes on Courtland Sutton, the Broncos’ top wide receiver. To feel comfortable making the trade, the Niners were reportedly willing to give Denver a third-round pick for Sutton.

When you add in Breer’s report, the pick to be exchanged would’ve been a Niners’ third-round pick by way of the Pittsburgh Steelers. The question is, did the Broncos make the right decision?

In order to answer that question, we must examine all the details that have emerged since Aiyuk’s extension knocked loose a lot of new information. Let’s dive in.

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The Broncos moved on from Tim Patrick to ease their log jam at wide receiver and create an avenue for younger receivers like Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, and Marvin Mims Jr. to see the field. Releasing Patrick wasn’t a move to help the salary cap situation since the Broncos ate $6 million in dead money while saving a little over $1.1 million in cap space. It was about the log jam at the position. 

Sutton has the second-highest cap hit on the Broncos roster, at a hair under $17.3 million, behind left tackle Garett Bolles. Sutton was unsatisfied with his contract, and for months, the Broncos were unwilling to rework his deal.

However, the two sides finally came to an agreement on some bonuses that were considered unlikely to be earned. The fact that they are unlikely to be earned matters a ton here. 

When performance bonuses are handed out, they’re dubbed unlikely or likely to be earned based on a player’s track record. If they’re likely to be earned, they’ll count against the current year’s salary cap, and if they go unearned, the team will re-gain that cap space the following season.

As unlikely bonuses, they count against the following year’s salary cap if earned. This is important in this situation with Sutton. 

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The Broncos wouldn’t be on the hook for any of the money unless he earned those bonuses. If he were with the Niners and earned them, it would go against their salary cap. With no new guaranteed money, the Broncos would save $9.6 million against the salary cap with $7.6 million in dead money. 

Had the Broncos traded Sutton, this would likely have kept Patrick on the roster. Remember, Patrick represents roughly $6 million in dead money while freeing up $1.1 million.

Trading Sutton would’ve added $1.6 million more in dead money, but it would have freed up $8.5 million more in usable cap space, which could’ve also been used to roll over into the 2025 season. The Broncos will still be dealing with Russell Wilson’s dead cap hit, so an extra $8.5 million could be useful. 

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The other fact here is the additional third-round pick, which, according to Breer, would’ve been from the Steelers. It’s impossible to predict where that third-round pick would end up, but let’s look at where different publications projected them. 

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Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season, and the defense they have is excellent, so most outlets view them as a nine or 10-win team. NFL.com had Pittsburgh tied with the Broncos as the 11th team in the AFC, but no record was given.

USA TODAY had the Steelers at 10-7, as did Sports Illustrated. I was unable to find a Steelers record prediction from ESPN or other national sites. That record would have put that pick Denver would have garnered from San Francisco for Sutton at around pick at No. 85 overall or the 20th or 21st pick in the third round. That’s better than if the pick was coming from the Niners, who are projected to be in the late 90s, as they’re one of the favorites to contend for a Super Bowl this year. 

The final fact to consider is the uncertainty of Sutton’s future with the team. There was a chance for the Broncos to rework his deal, which could’ve included an extension to secure his future with the team for at least a couple more seasons, but the team passed on that.

Rumors have been circulating about the Broncos wanting to move on from Sutton for almost three years. So, that’s important to remember when talking about the uncertainty of his standing with the team in future years. 

The Broncos had a chance to proceed with Patrick, an extra third-round pick, and an additional $8.5 million in salary cap space, but they passed on that avenue. Would that have been better than having only Sutton for the 2024 season with uncertainty beyond 2025, the final year of his deal?

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The Broncos are betting that Sutton’s worth more to them on the team than all those other resources combined, and only time will tell whether they made the right decision.


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Here’s how the NFL typically handles the top seeded team’s Divisional Round schedule

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Here’s how the NFL typically handles the top seeded team’s Divisional Round schedule


As the number one seed in the AFC, the Denver Broncos could end up playing on either Saturday or Sunday. It all comes down to which teams win during Wild Card weekend.

Head Coach Sean Payton was asked about the potential Divisional Round schedule and he said nothing is finalized. However, the NFL has been known to follow a certain schedule that could end up with the Broncos playing on Saturday if either the Buffalo Bills or Los Angeles Chargers win on Sunday and they’d play the following Sunday only if they had to wait until Monday for the outcome of the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers game.

The other thing with that extra week off is about preparation. One of the better questions the media asked of Payton on Friday was whether or not they do more advanced scouting on potential opponents they have not yet played this season.

“Look, there are four options,” Payton said. “One is in the division. We’ve played one two years in a row—or it feels like that with Houston. Buffalo. We’ll break down kind of all four and then look at… We’ll have personnel reports on the four… You do have enough time to look at third down, look at personnel packages, study situational football. I think that’s pretty common when you look at playoff history. A lot of times, you end up with a division team sometimes in the first round. I know that’s happened a number of times over the years with me. It’s hard to gauge how these other games are going to go not having spent much time looking at New England. [We’ve] seen Jacksonville. It’s one of those where you just watch them. You’re working while you watch them. You’re working on each plan, and then you go from there.”

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I came away feeling like Payton and the Broncos know two of their potential opponents fairly well. The other two will get some high level review, but nothing super deep as there just isn’t enough time. That is saved for this coming week when the opponent is finalized.

Payton and his staff have some great experience coaching in the playoffs, so this young Broncos team should be well-prepared for their football game.

Frankly, I like the idea of the Broncos getting their game out of the way early. Give Payton and his staff an extra day to begin the prep work needed for the AFC Championship game provided they come out with a win in the Divisional Round.



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Denver weather: Snow tails off Friday, but morning commute could be slick

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Denver weather: Snow tails off Friday, but morning commute could be slick


The waves of snow that fell across Denver Thursday were expected to diminish Friday morning, but the roads could be slick for commuters, a weather forecaster said. The National Weather Service in Boulder said to expect a 40% chance of snow across Denver on Friday with a high temperature reaching about 34 degrees. That’s about […]



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Denver Broncos’ stunning season: Ending Chiefs’ reign and clinching top AFC seed

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Denver Broncos’ stunning season: Ending Chiefs’ reign and clinching top AFC seed


DENVER — Sean Payton listed three goals for his Denver Broncos this season, and chief among them was knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs.

They did that, winning the AFC West for the first time in a decade and ending K.C.’s nine-year reign atop the division.

The Chiefs, who have played in the past seven AFC championship games, are already aiming for next season after a 6-11 finish that ended with Patrick Mahomes with a surgically repaired knee.

Payton’s second goal was earning the best seed possible in the playoffs so the Broncos wouldn’t have to hit the road like they did last year when they were blasted 31-7 in Buffalo in the wild-card round.

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The Broncos earned the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a franchise record-tying 14 wins.

Super Bowl 60 was the third goal and they’re two home victories away from getting there.

The journey won’t be easy. These are the first AFC playoffs without Mahomes, Peyton Manning or Tom Brady since 1998, another reason it’s seen as a wide-open field without a prohibitive favorite to raise the Lamar Hunt Trophy on Jan. 25.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye celebrates after a touchdown scored by running back TreVeyon Henderson during the second half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins in Foxborough, Mass., Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026. Credit: AP/Charles Krupa

All four division winners were new this year with Denver, New England, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh all earning at least one home playoff game.

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The Broncos will find out their opponent for the divisional round this weekend. They’ll play the lowest remaining seed after wild-card weekend that features two AFC games Sunday and another Monday night.

The Buffalo Bills (12-5) visit the Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) on Sunday followed by the Los Angeles Chargers (11-6) visiting the New England Patriots (14-3). On Monday night, the Houston Texans (12-5) visit the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) as Aaron Rodgers returns to the postseason for the first time since 2021 when he was with Green Bay.

“I think it’s the best possible position to be in,” Broncos second-year QB Bo Nix said. “Two home games is where we want to be. It’s better than having to play on the road and it’s better than having to play an extra game. I think for us, it’s the best-case scenario. It’ll be good to play here because of our stadium and the atmosphere. I think that’ll apply a little bit more pressure. At the end of the day, it’s an open tournament and it’s going to be a really good opportunity to play really good teams. Each one that comes in here is going to be a tough, physical, competitive game.”

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks to throw a...

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) looks to throw a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Tennessee Titans, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Jacksonville, Fla. Credit: AP/John Raoux

1. (14-3).

Three Lombardi trophies in eight Super Bowl appearances.

Lift the Lombardi: Denver’s defense amassed 68 sacks, the fifth most in history and four shy of the 1984 Chicago Bears’ NFL-record of 72. Here’s the thing: they could have had many more, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has built an unselfish pass rush that seeks more to cage in quarterbacks with edge rushers and blitzers never rushing deeper than the QB. Patrick Surtain II, Zach Allen, Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper and Talanoa Hufanga can all wreck offensive game plans.

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Cancel the confetti: As usual in Denver, the offense doesn’t shine like the defense does. Although QB Bo Nix tied Russell Wilson’s NFL record with two dozen victories in his first two NFL seasons, the former Oregon signal caller was erratic with his throws and inconsistent in his play all season. Still, he was clutch when it mattered, throwing for 17 TDs and just two INTs when trailing in 2025. The Broncos are hopeful that if they reach the Super Bowl they’ll get RB J.K. Dobbins back from foot surgery to give their backfield a boost. Until then, its rookie R.J. Harvey’s chance to shine.

“It doesn’t have to be aesthetically pleasing to be effective.” — Payton.

2. (14-3).

Six titles in 11 Super Bowl appearances.

Lift the Lombardi: The Patriots are hungry as they return to the playoffs for the first time since 2021 on the heels of a potential MVP season from second-year quarterback Drake Maye. His production with a league-best 72.0 completion rate, along with 4,394 passing yards and 31 touchdowns are what make New England a threat to emerge from the AFC. Their mix of impactful young talent such as running back TreVeyon Henderson and veteran leaders such as wide receiver Stefon Diggs typify a roster that has bought into new coach Mike Vrabel’s approach. He knows playoff football well, having won three Super Bowls with the Patriots as a player and guiding the Tennessee Titans to three playoff appearances in his six seasons as coach.

Cancel the confetti: One thing that might be a cause for concern is New England’s inconsistency against the run over the latter part of the season. The Patriots defense didn’t allow a 100-yard rusher in the first 11 games. But when defensive tackle Milton Williams went on injured reserve with an ankle injury for five straight games, the Patriots allowed four rushers to eclipse the century mark with him sidelined. He returned for the regular-season finale, but if teams can control the game on the ground and keep the ball out of Maye’s hands for long stretches, it could add up to a short postseason for New England.

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“We’re not here just to get here. We have to be able to host games and compete for championships. There’s not going to be any consolation prize for anybody. We understand what we have to do.” — Vrabel.

3. (13-4).

No Super Bowl appearances.

Lift the Lombardi: The Jaguars are one of four NFL teams — along with Cleveland, Detroit and Houston — that have never reached the Super Bowl. Getting there in coach Liam Coen’s first season would be one of the biggest surprises in recent NFL history. Coen is the seventh head coach in NFL history to win 13 or more games in his first season, and the Jaguars are one of three teams — along with 2005 Patriots and 1999 Colts — to win 13 or more games a year after losing 13 or more. It’s the kind of turnaround that gives players and coaches plenty of confidence heading into their wild-card game against Buffalo. Recent play helps, too. Jacksonville has won eight in a row and nine of 10 since its bye while averaging 32.8 points. The only loss was the largest collapse in franchise history. That 36-29 debacle at Houston in early November still resonates two months later.

Cancel the confetti: Jacksonville has few, if any, elite playmakers on either side of the ball. The team’s only Pro Bowl selection was long snapper Ross Matiscik, and although quarterback Trevor Lawrence, linebacker Devin Lloyd, receiver Parker Washington and safety Antonio Johnson have enjoyed breakout seasons, it’s fair to wonder how far this team can go in the playoffs without any superstars.

4. (10-7).

Six Lombardi trophies in eight Super Bowl appearances.

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Lift the Lombardi: Pittsburgh survived a turbulent regular season by winning four of its final five, capped by a heart-stopping Week 18 victory over rival Baltimore that gave the Steelers their first AFC North title in five years. Aaron Rodgers, in his 21st season, appears to be getting better as the temperature drops and the Steelers will have wide receiver DK Metcalf back after serving a two-game suspension for making contact with a fan in Detroit. Throw in a sometimes leaky defense that is still capable of season-shifting plays, and there’s optimism in Pittsburgh that a deep run is possible for the first time in nearly a decade.

Cancel the confetti: The Steelers have dropped six straight playoff games, most of them in blowout fashion. While longtime coach Mike Tomlin says the weight of those failures rests solely with him and not his team, for long stretches during the season, Pittsburgh looked like a playoff team in name only. The offense has been largely incapable of producing big plays and the pass defense is ranked 29th. Rodgers noted the belief in the locker room is high after last week’s stirring rally against Baltimore. Still, the Steelers have been so uneven over the past four months that the idea they can somehow string together four wins seems like a big stretch.

“It’s not about the organization or myself. It’s about this collective, and quite frankly, most of these men don’t care about the last whatever years that you mentioned (without playoff success). Most of them are new to us, and so that’s where my focus is. I’m certainly not going to unpack my bags on the collective’s bed, if you will.” — Tomlin.

5. (12-5).

No Super Bowl appearances.

Lift the Lombardi: The Texans have never reached the Super Bowl or even the conference title game, but the team’s powerful defense gives them hope that this could be their year as they enter the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak. The unit, led by stars Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and Derek Stingley held teams to 17.3 points and 277.2 yards per game this season to set franchise marks in both categories. The Texans rank third in the NFL with 29 takeaways and their consistent defensive play helped them overcome losing QB C.J. Stroud to a concussion for three games midseason and rally from an 0-3 start to make the postseason for a third straight year.

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Cancel the confetti: While the defense has been the best in the NFL this season, the offense never really took off with new coordinator Nick Caley and ranks in the middle of the pack. The group was slowed by a season-long injury to running back Joe Mixon and an ineffective performance by backup Nick Chubb. Rookie Woody Marks has had some success, but will need to improve to help the team be more effective in the red zone. Houston has struggled in that area throughout the season and ranks 30th in the NFL by scoring touchdowns on just 46.30% of its trips inside the 20.

“Our team has been through a lot. What I would say about our team is it really doesn’t matter any way the game shapes up. Whatever we need to do to win the game, we find a way to win the game.” — coach DeMeco Ryans.

6.

(12-5).

No Lombardi trophies in four Super Bowl appearances.

Lift the Lombardi: Josh Allen is coming off two weeks of rest and oversees a balanced offense that features the NFL’s rushing champion in James Cook. The fourth-year running back’s more prominent role this season has taken the load off Allen having to do it all on his own. The late-season addition of Brandin Cooks adds a much-needed speed element to a receiving group that had difficulty stretching the field.

Cancel the confetti: Allen still has a propensity to want to do it all on his own. Though he’s twice rallied Buffalo from double-digit fourth-quarter deficits this season, Allen’s also shown signs of pressing and impatience. He’s been sacked a career-high 40 times, and is 3-5 when committing one giveaway, and 1-4 in outings he’s had two turnovers. Buffalo’s bend-but-don’t-break defense has broken too often in allowing 2,315 yards rushing. Buffalo has lost all five road playoff games under coach Sean McDermott, and is 0-8 — not counting two neutral site Super Bowl losses — since winning at Miami in the 1992 AFC championship game.

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“We take a lot of pride in what we’ve done here. And nobody has more internal drive and internal expectations than I do or we do. And very confident in who we are. There’s one thing that remains. We know what that is.” — McDermott on Buffalo failing to make a Super Bowl appearance since he took over in 2017.

7. (11-6).

No Lombardi trophies in one Super Bowl appearance.

Lift the Lombardi: The Chargers are coming off their second consecutive 11-win season and postseason berth under coach Jim Harbaugh. QB Justin Herbert will be playing with a broken left hand (non-throwing) after resting for the regular-season finale against Denver. He racked up 3,727 yards and 26 touchdowns this season. The Chargers have a trio of receivers with at least 50 catches, 700 receiving yards and four TD catches in Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey.

Cancel the confetti: The banged-up offensive line has been an issue all season. Rashawn Slater was lost in the preseason and then Joe Alt went down six games in. Only Zion Johnson played all 17 games. Herbert went through the wringer nearly every week and still played at a high level despite having surgery on his broken hand. The Chargers rested him and several other starters in Week 18 in the hopes of having fresh bodies for the playoffs. But the O-line will have to better protect Herbert if the Chargers hope to win their first playoff game since 2018.

“I’m sure the more they watch Justin, they realize, ‘Wow, he’s even better than we thought he was.’” — Harbaugh on the Patriots scouting Herbert.

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With contributions from AP Pro Football Writer Mark Long and AP Sports Writers Kyle Hightower, Will Graves, Kristie Rieken, John Wawrow and Beth Harris.



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