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Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Keep Beating the S&P 500 Over the Long Term

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Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Keep Beating the S&P 500 Over the Long Term

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is an index of 500 companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges. It’s a prestigious achievement for any company to be admitted into the index, and only the highest-quality names make the cut.

Selection is at the discretion of the Index Committee, but companies must be profitable, and they also need a market capitalization of at least $18 billion. That figure rises over time, because the S&P 500 is weighted by market cap, which means the largest companies in the index have a greater influence over its performance than the smallest.

As a result, technology has become the largest sector in the index with a weighting of 31.4%. It includes trillion-dollar giants Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia.

A sculpture of a golden bull standing on a laptop computer.

Image source: Getty Images.

Meet the S&P 500 Growth index

The S&P 500 Growth index holds around 231 of the best-performing stocks in the regular S&P 500, and excludes the rest. It selects those stocks based on factors like their momentum and the sales growth of the underlying companies.

Therefore, it’s no surprise the tech sector has a whopping 50.2% weighting in the Growth index. Nvidia, for example, grew its revenue by 262% year over year during its most recent quarter, and its stock has soared 200% over the past 12 months alone.

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But here’s the best part. The Growth index rebalances every quarter, which means it removes stocks that no longer meet its criteria for inclusion and replaces them with more suitable candidates. As a result, this index has typically outperformed the regular S&P 500 over the long term.

The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF tracks the S&P 500 Growth index

The Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF (NYSEMKT: VOOG) is designed to track the performance of the S&P 500 Growth index by holding the same stocks and maintaining similar weightings.

The below table shows the top five holdings in the Vanguard ETF, and how their weightings compare to the regular S&P 500:

Stock

Vanguard ETF Weighting

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S&P 500 Weighting

1. Apple

12.28%

6.89%

2. Microsoft

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11.93%

6.70%

3. Nvidia

11.04%

6.20%

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4. Amazon

4.43%

3.69%

5. Meta Platforms

4.17%

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2.24%

Data source: Vanguard. Portfolio weightings are accurate as of July 31, 2024, and are subject to change.

The Vanguard ETF delivered a return of 36.5% over the past year, comfortably outperforming the S&P 500, which is up 30.2%:

There were two factors at play:

  1. The five stocks in the above table have delivered an average return of 76.7% over the past year, and since they have a much higher weighting in the Vanguard ETF relative to the S&P 500, that contributed to the outperformance of the ETF.

  2. As I mentioned earlier, the Growth index (and by extension, the Vanguard ETF), only holds the top-performing stocks from the S&P 500 and excludes the laggards, which also contributed to the higher return in the ETF.

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AAPL ChartAAPL Chart

AAPL Chart

The Vanguard ETF can outperform the S&P 500 over the long term

The Vanguard ETF has delivered a compound annual return of 15.9% since it was established in 2010, beating the average annual gain of 13.7% in the S&P 500 over the same period. While that 2.2 percentage point difference each year doesn’t sound like much, it makes a big impact in dollar terms thanks to the effects of compounding:

Starting Balance (2010)

Compound Annual Return

Balance in 2024

$10,000

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15.9% (Vanguard ETF)

$78,916

$10,000

13.7% (S&P 500)

$60,345

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Calculations by author.

If technologies like cloud computing, semiconductors, and artificial intelligence continue to drive the tech sector forward, the largest holdings in the Vanguard ETF are likely to remain constant in the coming years. In that scenario, I predict the ETF will continue outperforming the S&P 500.

However, even if there is a shift in market leadership, the Growth index will rebalance as necessary. Therefore, if the Vanguard ETF does suffer a period of underperformance relative to the S&P 500, I think it’s likely to be very short-lived.

Should you invest $1,000 in Vanguard Admiral Funds – Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF right now?

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Consider when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005… if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you’d have $792,725!*

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Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Prediction: This Unstoppable Vanguard ETF Will Keep Beating the S&P 500 Over the Long Term was originally published by The Motley Fool

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Bangladesh Says $300 Billion Climate Finance Goal Falls Short, Calls for More Support

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Bangladesh Says 0 Billion Climate Finance Goal Falls Short, Calls for More Support
DHAKA, June 23 (Reuters) – Bangladesh called on ⁠Tuesday ⁠for more funds and ⁠faster support for developing countries facing escalating threats from climate change, saying the global climate financing goal of $300 billion per ‌year fell short of ‌their needs. Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s …
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EU and Hong Kong in talks on new financial services dialogue, envoy says

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EU and Hong Kong in talks on new financial services dialogue, envoy says

Senior officials from the European Union and Hong Kong are in talks to launch a financial services dialogue, with companies from the bloc keen to explore opportunities in the Northern Metropolis, its top representative in the city has said.

Ambassador Harvey Rouse, head of the EU Office in Hong Kong, made the remarks at the Greenway 2026 forum on Tuesday, where he highlighted opportunities for cooperation on sustainable innovation and the green transition.

In a keynote address, Rouse said Hong Kong had established itself as one of Asia’s leading centres for green and sustainable finance, and that, as “two of the world’s leaders” in this field, both sides had an opportunity to deepen cooperation.

“Indeed, this cooperation is already under way,” he said.

“Senior exchanges between Hong Kong and the European Commission have intensified over the past year with visits of EU officials to Hong Kong and vice versa. Both sides are looking at starting soon a financial services dialogue to enhance cooperation.”

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Rouse said European firms could also provide investment and expertise to support Hong Kong’s green transition.

“This is particularly relevant as Hong Kong develops the Northern Metropolis,” he said, referring to the city’s 30,000-hectare (74,131-acre) megaproject near the border with mainland China.

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London Mayor: UK Tops Green Finance Rankings for Eighth Straight Year | OilPrice.com

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London Mayor: UK Tops Green Finance Rankings for Eighth Straight Year | OilPrice.com

As the City of London Corporation marks the fifth instalment of the Net Zero Delivery Summit this week, I reflect on the world we were in back in 2022. Only four years ago businesses and communities were recovering from Covid, war had returned to the European continent with the invasion of Ukraine, and surging fuel and food prices were driving global inflation to historic levels. Since then, global instability has only deepened, with conflict in the Middle East and tariff wars disrupting global trade. 

We have to face a difficult truth that the relative stability among major powers that has defined the period since the Second World War – what the historian John Lewis Gaddis called the Long Peace – was actually more of an anomaly. We are living through a period of more volatile geopolitics, faster-moving innovation, and fiercer global competition for investment than at almost any point in recent memory.”

When I travel to overseas markets as Lady Mayor, however, one thing remains constant. Whatever the local view on net zero or climate change, businesses and government leaders are acutely aware that climate resilience is no longer a nice-to-have or an afterthought, it’s critical. Putting my insurance hat on for a moment: global natural catastrophes have increased five-fold over the past 50 years, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The 2025 California wildfires are estimated to have cost insurers around $40bn, among the largest insured losses on record for a wildfire event. The business case for greater climate resilience and adaptation makes itself. So does the case for accelerating the transition to clean energy in our heavy-emitting industries, and for scaling up carbon credit markets. These measures don’t just give us a genuine chance to ease the mounting pressures of climate change, they create jobs, opportunity and innovation here in the UK and globally.

Stop dithering on climate action

But I sense among business and sustainability leaders a real appetite to move beyond the stop-start approach and dithering on climate action. They want to know who’s getting results consistently, who has a model we can follow, who has the talent and expertise to execute at scale, and where they can easily raise capital for clean energy projects. That answer is unequivocally London. During my mayoralty, I’ve partnered with City trade associations and businesses to launch the Team UK campaign, amplifying a confident, evidence-based narrative of London and the UK’s strengths as a global financial hub. We’re the largest and most active capital market in Europe, we have the most fintechs in Europe, we’re the third biggest tech hub globally – and we do just as well in sustainable and green finance. That’s a story we need to shout about; it’s one the world needs to hear.

The UK is the largest market globally for project-level financing for clean energy, the biggest in Europe for private investment in green tech, and has topped the global green finance centre rankings for eight consecutive editions. The mayoralty is about connecting capital with opportunity, and that’s exactly why events like the Net Zero Delivery Summit at the heart of London Climate Action Week, with the likes of Bloomberg partnering, are so important. It’s where the right leaders convene, the right conversations happen, and new partnerships are made that turn commitment into action.

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Mark Carney, now Canada’s Prime Minister, was a keynote speaker at one of our early climate finance summits, back when he was Governor of the Bank of England. His words from a speech that same era still ring true today: “Once climate change becomes a defining issue for financial stability, it may already be too late.” In my role as Lady Mayor the best I can do is set the stage for world leaders to come together and chart a course of greater action – that stage is in the Square Mile and it meets at the Net Zero Delivery Summit.

By City AM

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