Montana
What to Expect in the Montana Presidential and State Primaries – Flathead Beacon
The general election for a race that could determine the Senate majority begins right after Montana voters lock in their nominees in Tuesday’s primaries.
The center of the political storm in Montana is the U.S. Senate race, in which Democrat Jon Tester is running for reelection. Republican leaders including Sen. Steve Daines, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial committee, are supporting Tim Sheehy for the GOP nomination. Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL who has the personal wealth to help pay for an expensive challenge to Tester, faces two other candidates on the ballot.
Rep. Matt Rosendale’s attempt to join the race was quickly rebuffed when former President Donald Trump endorsed Sheehy the day that Rosendale announced he was running for Senate, too. Rosendale dropped out of the race less than a week later, announcing his intent to run for reelection instead. At that point, however, Republicans had already lined up to run for his open House seat. Now, Rosendale isn’t running for office in 2024 at all.
State Auditor Troy Downing is among the candidates in a crowded primary to replace Rosendale, as are former Rep. Denny Rehberg and several others. Meanwhile, the other member of Montana’s congressional delegation, Rep. Ryan Zinke, is running for reelection, as is Gov. Greg Gianforte.
Tester is a top target for Republicans, one of two Democrats running for reelection in a state that Trump won in 2020. Rosendale failed to oust Tester in the 2018 race, and Republicans are hoping that Sheehy will be more successful.
Rosendale’s open seat might mean a major political comeback for Rehberg, or a launching pad for another candidate in the crowded field. Daines served in the at-large congressional seat before making the leap to the Senate. And Gianforte, who won a House seat in a contentious 2017 special election, is now governor.
Here’s a look at what to expect on Tuesday:
PRIMARY DAY
The primary will be held Tuesday. Polls close at 10 p.m. ET, or 8 p.m. local time.
WHAT’S ON THE BALLOT
The Associated Press will provide results for and determine winners in 72 races, including the presidential primaries. Trump and President Joe Biden, a Democrat, are the only candidates on their respective ballots, but voters have the option to select “no preference” or write in a candidate in both races.
The AP is also tabulating results for the Republican and Democratic primaries for the U.S. Senate race. Tester appears on the Democratic ballot alongside Michael Hummert, who had not filed any campaign fundraising as of the latest deadline. Tester has $11.8 million on hand and has spent $26 million this cycle as of latest filing.
Voters will also select nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, who run as a team, as one ballot option.
Other statewide offices including secretary of state and attorney general appear on the ballot as well as state legislative primaries and judicial races.
WHO GETS TO VOTE
Montana has an open primary system, which means any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary.
DELEGATE ALLOCATION RULES
Montana’s 20 pledged Democratic delegates are allocated according to the national party’s standard rules. Five at-large delegates are allocated in proportion to the statewide vote, as are three PLEO delegates, or “party leaders and elected officials.” The state’s two congressional districts have a combined 12 delegates at stake, which are allocated in proportion to the vote results in each district. Candidates must receive at least 15% of the statewide vote to qualify for any statewide delegates, and 15% of the vote in a congressional district to qualify for delegates in that district.
In the Republican primary, 31 delegates are unbound to a presidential candidate.
DECISION NOTES
Sheehy has never appeared on a ballot for statewide office, but he has a major financial advantage in the Republican primary for U.S. Senate. He has already spent $8.3 million as of a May 15 filing and had an additional $2.2 million in the bank. Two other candidates on the ballot have not come close to keeping up with Sheehy’s fundraising or spending.
Gianforte is running for another term as governor alongside Lt. Gov. Kristen Juras. He faces a challenge from the right by state Rep. Tanner Smith, who represents part of Flathead County in the state House. Smith’s running mate, Randy Pinocci, represents District 1 on the Public Service Commission, which covers much of the eastern portion of the state.
After decennial redistricting, Montana’s at-large congressional district was split in two. The first district covers the western portion of the state, running along the Idaho border. Most of the district favors Republicans, though there are Democratic-leaning pockets around a handful of cities, including Bozeman, Missoula and Butte. For that reason, the 1st District has become a target for Democrats. In 2022, Zinke won the general election by just about 3 percentage points over Democratic nominee Monica Tranel, who’s running uncontested for the nomination in 2024.
The 2nd District falls in the eastern portion of the state, stretching from Helena to the North Dakota border and is even friendlier to Republicans than the 1st District. Rehberg, Downing and Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen have appeared on a statewide ballot before, making them familiar names to many voters. According to data from AdImpact, Downing has a significant advantage over his competitors in ad spending on the race.
Ken Bogner, president pro tempore of the state senate, is also running for the open 2nd District seat. Bogner is from Miles City in Custer County. A number of other candidates also appear on the ballot but have lagged far behind in campaign fundraising.
The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
Montana elections automatically go to a recount in the event of a tied vote. Candidates may request a recount if the margin of the race is less than a half a percentage point.
WHAT DO TURNOUT AND ADVANCE VOTE LOOK LIKE
As of May 22, there were 752,395 registered voters in Montana. Montana voters do not register with a political party.
In the 2020 presidential election, turnout was 22% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 31% in the Republican primary.
In the June 2022 primary, about 87% of votes were cast before Election Day.
As of May 28, a total of 448,022 ballots had been sent to voters, and 136,979 had been returned.
HOW LONG DOES VOTE-COUNTING USUALLY TAKE?
In the 2022 primary election, the AP first reported results at 10:06p.m. ET, or six minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 6:02 a.m. ET with about 93% of total votes counted.
ARE WE THERE YET?
As of Tuesday, there will be 41 days until the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, 76 days until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago and 154 days until the November general election.
Montana
Proposed Bridger pipeline would bring crude from Canada through Montana to Wyoming
The Bridger project is a massive oil pipeline project that would come in from Alberta, Canada, into Montana at Phillips County, then go through nine counties before getting to Wyoming.
The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and the Montana Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) are reviewing the project, and it could cut across private, state, and federal land.
Watch Bridger pipeline story here:
Proposed Bridger pipeline would bring crude from Canada through Montana to Wyoming
The 647-mile-long Bridger pipeline would move up to 550,000 barrels of crude oil a day.
“It’s a win for Montana. It’s a win for America,” said Yellowstone County Commissioner Mark Morse.
Morse and the Yellowstone County commissioners are among the many Montana leaders supporting the project.
Just this week, they drafted a letter to the Bureau of Land Management expressing that support.
“The energy security is again, it’s going to be on the North American continent and transporting oil via a pipeline is safer than rail or truck,” Morse said.
Commissioners also say the pipeline would be an economic boost for Yellowstone County, bringing construction jobs, supply contracts, and local spending.
“We’ll be a hub for their construction activities,” Morse said. “Supplying parts and pieces, labor.”
But there are plenty of opponents.
They say the risks are simply too high, pointing to past oil spills, including the 2015 Poplar pipeline rupture that sent 30,000 gallons of crude oil into the Yellowstone River near Glendive and a diesel spill of 45,000 gallons near Sussex, Wyoming.
“If that crossing has spilled into the Missouri River, it eventually would make it to that intake,” said Lance Fourstar, co-director of the American Indian Movement Montana. “Highly carcinogenic tar sand bitumen, so we already know it’s highly carcinogenic.”
Fourstar also has concerns about sacred tribal lands.
“The key point of concern is the sovereignty and treaty rights,” Fourstar said. “This project crosses lands, that with treaty reserved rights, hunting, fishing, and gathering.”
The Montana Environmental Information Center (MEIC) says the pipeline would originate in Alberta with what it calls environmentally destructive fuel sources.
“It’s an environmental disaster waiting to happen in a state that gets a lot of revenue from fishing and agriculture. A majority of the route crosses through Montana, putting land and water at risk,” MEIC spokesperson Shannon James said in a telephone interview with MTN News.
But for Yellowstone County leaders like Morse, it’s a win-win, not just for Yellowstone County, but also the country.
“I just see energy independence for America,” Morse said.
MTN News contacted True Companies in Casper, which proposed the Bridger pipeline.
True and BLM were not available for interviews.
Montana
Walker Hayes to headline 2026 Northwest Montana Fair
KALISPELL, Mont. — Country music star Walker Hayes will headline the 2026 Northwest Montana Fair concert, opening the Northwest Montana Fair & Rodeo in Kalispell.
Hayes is scheduled to perform Wednesday, Aug. 12, 2026, at the Flathead County Fairgrounds. The 2026 Northwest Montana Fair & Rodeo runs Aug. 12-16.
Hayes is known for hit songs including “Fancy Like,” “AA,” and “You Broke Up With Me.”
“We are thrilled to bring Walker Hayes to the Northwest Montana Fair,” said Sam Nunnally, Manager of the NW Montana Fair & Rodeo. “Our goal each year is to create unforgettable experiences for our community and visitors, and this concert will be a highlight of the 2026 Fair.”
Tickets for the Walker Hayes concert will be available through the Northwest Montana Fair website at nwmtfair.com.
The Northwest Montana Fair & Rodeo welcomes more than 80,000 guests annually and is one of the largest summer events in the region, featuring concerts, PRCA ProRodeo action, carnival rides, exhibits, food vendors, and family entertainment.
Montana
GOP congressional candidates Aaron Flint and Al Olszewski face off in Bozeman
BOZEMAN — Aaron Flint and Al Olszewski, Republican candidates for Montana’s Western District U.S. House race, squared off Tuesday in their party’s only scheduled debate before the party primary.
The two debated for about 90 minutes at Bozeman’s Calvary Chapel before an audience of about 120 people. Bozeman anchors Gallatin County, which is second in Republican votes only to Flathead County within the 18-county district.
Natural resource jobs, affordable housing and U.S. military attacks on Iran dominated the discussion. Each question drew 12 minutes of response. Both men called for an end to stock trading by members of Congress, and for federal budgets to be passed on time through regular procedures.
The Montana GOP sponsored the debate. Candidate Christi Jacobsen, Montana’s secretary of state, was unable to attend, according to state Republican Party Chair Art Wittich. State Senate President Matt Regier moderated.
Among the highlights: Flint mentioned no fewer than eight times that he is endorsed by President Donald Trump. Olszewski mentioned Trump by name only a couple of times.
Never too far from Flint’s talking points were “far-left socialists,” whom he credited for “gerrymandering” the Western House District (which has delivered comfortable wins for Republicans since first appearing on the ballot in 2022). The 2026 election cycle was the target of Democrats on the state’s districting commission, Flint said. (Both Democrats on the commission that drew the district in 2021 voted against its current configuration.)
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The near faux pas of the night came during Olszewski’s discussion of good-paying jobs in trades and natural resources: “Trades jobs, natural resource jobs, you know, high-dollar, white-collar jobs, our remote workers who have moved into Montana, and we’ve adapted an economy around them. You know, these are the people, and those are the jobs that will bring our kids home, those high-paying white-collar jobs, or a good natural resource job in western Montana, in one of those mines, or, you know, you know, a sawyer or a hooker” — big pause — “as in timber, not the other way around.”
The line that didn’t land: Flint tried and failed to get audience applause for the 2024 defeat of Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester by Republican Sen. Tim Sheehy — an unseating Flint campaigned for.
“How many of you out there are so glad that we finally got rid of the flip-flop, flat-top liberal senator, Jon Tester? How many of you are so glad we finally did that?”
After a silence, Flint explained to people watching the debate on Facebook that the audience was just being polite.
“They’re waving because we can’t have disruptions. See, they’re good rule followers here in the Republican Party,” Flint said.
Asked how to alleviate Montana’s housing affordability crisis:
Olszewski: “The only way you can afford an expensive house is you’ve got to have a job that pays good money. Tourist jobs provide rent and roommates. Trades jobs, natural resource jobs, high‑dollar white‑collar jobs … those are the jobs that will bring our kids home.” Dr. Al, as Olszewski is widely known, said Wall Street investment buyers are distorting housing prices and the federal government has weakened the dollar.
Flint: “Thirty percent of the cost of a home is all due to red tape and regulations … It costs $100,000 to build a home before you even put a hole in the ground.”
Flint said reviving Montana’s timber industry would lower home values and added, “I support President Trump’s ban on these big Wall Street firms buying single-family homes. I think that’s something that we’ve got to get across the finish line.”
“We can deliver when it comes to making the Montana dream affordable again by delivering affordable housing. But another piece is promoting trades and trades education to build up our workforce.”
Asked how Congress should respond to the Iran conflict:
Olszewski: “I supported our president with what happened in Venezuela. There’s a $25 million bounty on basically someone that was killing our people through drugs, right? I’m not so happy with what’s going on in the Iran war. I’m not a warrior. I’m a physician from the military that fixed military people … What my perspective is, is that countries can win wars, but people do not. They don’t come back.” Olszewski said Congress will have to decide whether to authorize further use of military force and set terms in about 10 days.
Flint: “Let me just say this. We are sick and tired of these forever wars, and we do not want to see a long-term boots-on-the-ground Iraq-style nation-building exercise, and I think President Trump shares that mission as well. Let me also say this about Iran. First off, [former Venezuelan President Nicolás] Maduro is behind bars. [Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei is dead, but the far-left socialists are on the march in Montana.”
Asked about reforming Congress:
Olszewski: “What our congressmen and congresswomen have to understand is that if you’re in the House, the House belongs to the people, and they need to, first and foremost, represent you, not themselves, not special interests. It’s not about sound-bites. It’s about actually getting work done and governing.” Olszewski said the House needs to pass a budget based on 12 agency appropriations bills before the end of each federal fiscal year, a process known as “regular order.”
Flint: “We need to return to regular order and get single-subject bills and get these appropriations bills done one by one. If they can’t get a budget done, they shouldn’t get paid. And we need a ban on congressional stock trading. Because I think part of the reason why the American people are so frustrated with Congress right now is because … they believe that Congress is so useless, because we’ve got some of these politicians back there that are getting rich off the backs of taxpayers.”
Neither candidate offered a plan for cutting taxes, once a staple of Republican platforms. Both supported reductions in federal spending without identifying particular cuts.
Voting in Montana’s 2026 primary election begins May 4 and ends June 2.
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