Between any two presidential elections, there is an enormous amount of churn in the electorate, both nationally and at the state level. A lot of this is obvious: People die, young people turn 18 and register to vote (and then often don’t vote again for a decade or two), people lose or gain interest in candidates or issues.
Washington
Analysis | Where 2024 voters moved since 2020 — and how they registered
There’s another factor, too, that often goes underrecognized. Over the course of four years, a lot of people simply pull up stakes and move. And that, at least in theory, can have an effect on the outcome of an election.
This is not easy to track. The Census Bureau collects data on interstate moves year over year, but in the aggregate. We can’t see, for example, whether someone moved from one state to another and then back. And we can only guess at what the political effects might be. Is someone moving from Ohio to Michigan adding a Republican vote to the latter state or is it a Democrat seeking slightly bluer climes?
We have another set of data that offers us a better lens into this question of partisan flow. L2, a political data vendor, tracks individual registrations over time, including after people move across state lines. An analysis of that data offers a picture — albeit an incomplete one — of the influx and outflow of state residents by party.
There are two caveats that are worth keeping in mind.
The first is that not every move is captured in this data, even among voters who were registered in both states. In many cases, of course, people moving across state lines will register to vote for the first time in the new state; they won’t be reflected in this data. Nor will people who couldn’t be matched to their prior registrations (generally because they didn’t complete a change of address form with the post office).
The other caveat is that this analysis includes partisanship data that’s modeled by L2. In some states, registration is nonpartisan. In those states, L2 uses other data — voting patterns or demographics — to estimate partisanship.
With those qualifiers in place, we can simply jump into the data. What we were interested in was less the numbers of people going from state to state (given the qualifier about those numbers) than the patterns of that movement. For each state, we calculated the number of Democrats, Republicans and third-party or nonpartisans that moved into a state since 2020 and the number of each group that moved out. Then we presented those totals as a percentage of the state’s total population.
This was the result. Thicker bars on the left side than the right indicate more arrivals than departures. The bars are generally ordered by size: If the Republican bar is on top, more Republicans than other groups were coming or going.
There are a lot of nuances to pick out of those charts; we’ll leave you to that.
Let’s drill down on the question we started with, though — considering how this might affect the presidential race. Comparing the net change among partisans (that is, those arriving minus those leaving) to the 2020 vote, we see that more-Democratic states were often those with bigger positive inflows of Democrats, though it’s cloudy. That partisan correlation was much stronger in more-Republican states.
In the middle there we see the swing states that flipped around in 2016 and 2020. We can pull the eight closest states in 2020 out and see that the net change by party varies. In Georgia, there’s been a bigger positive change for Democrats; in Florida, strongly for Republicans.
But what are the actual numbers, you demand. Well, in Georgia, the net advantage (comparing parties after subtracting outgoing voters from incoming ones) was a gain of about 18,000 Democrats. In Florida, it was 124,000 Republicans.
But again, this is just a sliver of movement. The Census Bureau’s data on moves from 2021 to 2022 shows 50 percent more inflow to Florida than there were new arrivals tracked by L2 over all four years. In Georgia, the Census Bureau’s one-year total is more than twice the L2 numbers. People are missed — including people registering for the first time.
There’s one other point worth making: People who have newly moved are less likely to vote. Here’s other data from the Census Bureau, looking at the 2020 election.
There are a lot of reasons for this: They haven’t registered yet, for one, or they may not know where they are supposed to cast their ballot. People who move frequently are less likely to own homes and skew younger, and younger people vote less often.
In other words, do not use these numbers to make bold predictions about how this consistently close presidential contest will end up. Use them, instead, as a reminder to register and vote.
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Washington
Touring Trump’s Washington: How the president is putting his imprint on the nation’s capital
The United States is celebrating its 250th year. And what better way to mark that anniversary than with an American summer staple — a trip to the nation’s capital.
But visitors to Washington will find that the city is undergoing tremendous change, courtesy of President Donald Trump’s takeover makeover.
Since returning to office 17 months ago, Trump has demonstrated a continuing fixation with the District of Columbia. The Republican president has slapped his image and name on buildings, torn down storied structures, altered others, started massive construction projects and deployed armed military personnel.
The traditional tourist sights remain. But with slight detours, an open mind and a critical eye, the ambitious walker can see all the ways the president has pushed to remake the capital.
On the eve of the United States’ birthday, take a trip with The Associated Press across a changing Washington.
A new study found that the National Guard in D.C. has had no effect on violent crime. News4’s Jackie Bensen unpacks it.
First stop: An indefinite National Guard deployment
We start our tour at Union Station and Metro Center, the city’s main transit hubs. Notice the Greco-Roman architecture of the former, the Brutalist design of the latter. Now see the ongoing, indefinite deployment of armed National Guard troops there and in many other parts of the city.
National Guard members from the district and several states have been in the city since August 2025, deployed under an emergency order issued by Trump in what he called a bid to fight crime. Trump has portrayed the deployment as a lifeline for the city. They will be here for most, if not all, of 2026 and are expected to number 5,000 this summer.
FILE – Members of the National Guard walking in the lobby of Union Station in Washington, May 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke, file)
It’s not the first time the military has deployed to the capital. Troops were in Washington throughout the Civil War, to quell riots after Martin Luther King Jr.’s 1968 assassination and, famously, hours into the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
But in Trump’s Washington, Guardsmen at street corners and metro stations have become an increasingly normal part of the city’s scenery.
And no one knows when they will leave.
Second stop: Scars left by DOGE
Exit Union Station, take in the view of the Capitol and turn right down Pennsylvania Avenue. There sits a building now synonymous with the Department of Government Efficiency, the Trump administration’s effort to shrink the federal government.
The U.S. Agency for International Development was the first major federal agency targeted by then-DOGE leader Elon Musk in the remake of the federal government, when cost-cutting measures prompted the terminations of tens of thousands of workers. USAID spent billions on humanitarian aid worldwide and was credited with saving millions of lives over time.
By eliminating 90% of foreign aid contracts, the Trump administration effectively cut some $60 billion in funding.
After workers cleared their desks in February 2025, the USAID offices on Pennsylvania Avenue were repurposed for other government uses.
The shuttering of the agency also contributed to a massive increase in unemployment in the region where about one-fifth of the workforce lives.
Many workers still ask: When their lives were upended, what was saved?
FILE – A banner featuring an image of President Donald Trump hangs on the Department of Justice in Washington, Wednesday, May 27, 2026. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
Third stop: Trump’s image staring down
Walking south along any of the numbered streets leads to Constitution Avenue and the National Mall. Banners bearing Trump’s image have adorned the facades of several government buildings over the past 17 months — an uncommon practice for a sitting American president and a highly literal sign of his imprint upon the city.
At the Department of the Interior, his image has equal billing with George Washington on similar banners proclaiming “America’s First” and “America First.”
A mile away, Trump’s face glowers from the storied Department of Justice building, a physical display of Trump’s efforts to exert power over the law enforcement agency that once investigated him. It’s also a striking symbol of the erosion of the department’s tradition of independence from White House control, as the president pushes to prosecute his political adversaries.
Next up: The Reflecting Pool painted ‘American flag blue’
Westward toward the Lincoln Memorial sits the recently repainted Reflecting Pool.
The site has always been a must-see on any tourist’s checklist. But the Reflecting Pool, the scene of historic marches and protests, today also symbolizes Trump’s drive to change Washington.
Trump called the area “filthy” and had workers paint it in a color he has called “American flag blue.” A Washington-based nonprofit that tried to block the move said it undermined the somber tone of the area, which sits near the memorials to Lincoln and to the Vietnam and Korean wars.
Since the makeover, the pool has been fraught with problems, from runaway algae growth to dead ducks and a torn lining. Authorities say vandals have been responsible for some of the problems and arrests have been made. The National Park Service said the liner was intentionally cut with a sharp razor or knife.
Getty Images Getty Images Chipped paint and algae in the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool after it was painted blue in Washington, DC, US, on Monday, June 22, 2026. Photographer: Aaron Schwartz/Bloomberg via Getty Images
A walk over the Memorial Bridge across the Potomac River leads directly to the proposed future site of Trump’s 20-story, gold-adorned triumphal arch. Although embroiled in a court battle, like a number of his projects, the arch has been approved by a key federal agency and survey work has begun at the site.
In a city meticulously planned and rich with the symbolism that defines the nation, new construction can unsettle the carefully crafted balance.
The arch, when built, will break up the intentionally designed symbolic sightline between Arlington House, once the home of Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee, and the Lincoln Memorial, which symbolized the reunification of a divided nation following the Civil War.
Just ahead: The Trump-Kennedy Center
Visible from the site is the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts — known for much of this year as the Donald J. Trump and John F. Kennedy Memorial Center.
Congress named the performing arts venue as a living memorial to Kennedy in 1964, the year after he was assassinated. A law explicitly prohibits its board of trustees from making the center into a memorial to anyone else, and from putting another person’s name on the building’s exterior.
A court decision eventually stripped the center of Trump’s name, but a tarp remains there, obscuring the change.
Getty Images Getty Images A tarp covers the facade of the John F. Kennedy Memorial Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, DC, on June 14, 2026. (Photo by Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP via Getty Images)
Trump also added his name to the U.S. Institute of Peace, part of a broader series of tributes that has been largely unprecedented for a sitting, living president.
In the middle of it all: A significantly changed White House
No tour would be complete without 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. — the White House. There, gazers can look at the construction site formerly known as the East Wing. It’s now the president’s ballroom-in-waiting as the courts and Congress battle over whether to build it.
The White House has said the $400 million cost would be paid by private donors, but public money — around $1 billion for the entire White House complex, including the ballroom — would be used for security measures. The proposed building has also expanded to a size larger than the rest of the White House. Trump argues the ballroom is necessary for security reasons, and amplified that assertion after the attack on the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner in April.
Guests attend a Rose Garden Club dinner hosted by US President Donald Trump (off frame) for American farmers at the White House in Washington, DC, on June 25, 2026. (Photo by Mandel NGAN / AFP via Getty Images)
Not viewable on the tour: the area formerly known as the Rose Garden. Planted by then-first lady Jackie Kennedy, it has been paved over into a patio.
Last stop: Black Lives Matter Plaza no more
Directly north, across Pennsylvania Avenue, is the area of town formerly known as Black Lives Matter Plaza. During Trump’s first term, a more defiant Democratic Mayor Muriel Bowser ordered the painting and naming of the area as a remembrance of the death of George Floyd at the hands of the Minneapolis police.
This combination of images shows Black Lives Matter plaza on 16th Street, NW, near the White House on March 10, 2025, top, as work was beginning to remove signage and markings, and on April 1, 2025, after the work was completed. (AP Photo)
BLM Plaza became a magnet point for years of political activism. Hundreds of protests started, ended or rallied there.
The plaza came down in March 2025 at Bowser’s direction, spurred by threats from Congress to hold the city’s funding. The decision served as an acknowledgment of a major shift in tone under Trump.
That’s the tour, folks. Please enjoy your stay.
Former BYU star, AJ Dybantsa, was selected by the Washington Wizards with the no. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Before basketball became such a big part of AJ Dybantsa’s life, he was like any other kid — growing up as a fan of a fictional superhero.
When he was about five, his father bought him a Spider-Man basketball hoop that went on the back of his door.
“I loved Spider-Man growing up. So I just started shooting from my bed with this miniature ball. Then I started playing in the YMCA leagues … ended up falling in love with the game,” Dybantsa said. “So Spider-Man is the reason why I love basketball.”
The Washington Wizards are certainly glad Dybantsa took up the sport and committed himself to it. Two days after taking the 6-foot-9 star out of BYU with the top pick in the NBA draft, the team introduced him Thursday at a hotel overlooking the Potomac River, about 1 1/2 miles south from where the Wizards play their home games.
“Nothing comes easy, but I want to be a piece of the puzzle that is part of the rebuild,” he said. “Obviously, Wizards fans have been waiting for a long time.”
This was the first time the Wizards have picked first in the draft since 2010 when they took John Wall. Dybantsa joins a team that hasn’t won 50 games in a season since 1979 — and more recently managed only 50 victories over the past three seasons combined.
One issue of uncertainty was resolved at the news conference. Dybantsa wore No. 3 in college, but in Washington that belongs to Trae Young. Dybantsa will change to No. 4.
“Previously wore No. 3, but I was the No. 1 pick,” he said. “Wanted to add those up, and we got four.”
Dybantsa averaged 25.5 points per game in college, becoming the first freshman to lead the nation in scoring since his new teammate, Young, did it at Oklahoma in 2017-18.
Washington fans will have a chance soon enough to see what Dybantsa brings on the court, but Thursday’s event was an opportunity to see the type of person they’ll be investing so much hope in. Dybantsa was personable and confident, and he seemed eager to get down to business. That much was clear back at the combine before the draft.
“It was like a job. My dad was like, ‘This is your first job interview,’” he said. “So we decided to dress up. I went to a suit and tie in every single interview. Media availability, that was in a suit and tie. So I just wanted to treat it like a real job.”
That made quite an impression on Wizards general manager Will Dawkins.
“It was a pretty fun first introduction, just to learn the maturity that he brings,” Dawkins said. “We allow opportunities to ask questions. Sometimes you get the standard questions from guys. We didn’t get that from AJ. He’s just curious and mature and asked some really deep questions.”
Dybantsa said he intends to graduate college, finishing his studies online, and he has big plans for how he can make a difference away from basketball. The 19-year-old has already started a foundation aimed at empowering young people.
“My mom’s from Jamaica, my dad’s from Congo. We’re going to start off just sending 20 kids from there to different universities,” he said. “If that’s universities in the continent of Africa, if that’s different universities in Jamaica, if that’s universities in the States, we’re going to try that. But after those, we’re just going to expand all around the world. We just want to help kids all around the world.”
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