Between any two presidential elections, there is an enormous amount of churn in the electorate, both nationally and at the state level. A lot of this is obvious: People die, young people turn 18 and register to vote (and then often don’t vote again for a decade or two), people lose or gain interest in candidates or issues.
Washington
Analysis | Where 2024 voters moved since 2020 — and how they registered
There’s another factor, too, that often goes underrecognized. Over the course of four years, a lot of people simply pull up stakes and move. And that, at least in theory, can have an effect on the outcome of an election.
This is not easy to track. The Census Bureau collects data on interstate moves year over year, but in the aggregate. We can’t see, for example, whether someone moved from one state to another and then back. And we can only guess at what the political effects might be. Is someone moving from Ohio to Michigan adding a Republican vote to the latter state or is it a Democrat seeking slightly bluer climes?
We have another set of data that offers us a better lens into this question of partisan flow. L2, a political data vendor, tracks individual registrations over time, including after people move across state lines. An analysis of that data offers a picture — albeit an incomplete one — of the influx and outflow of state residents by party.
There are two caveats that are worth keeping in mind.
The first is that not every move is captured in this data, even among voters who were registered in both states. In many cases, of course, people moving across state lines will register to vote for the first time in the new state; they won’t be reflected in this data. Nor will people who couldn’t be matched to their prior registrations (generally because they didn’t complete a change of address form with the post office).
The other caveat is that this analysis includes partisanship data that’s modeled by L2. In some states, registration is nonpartisan. In those states, L2 uses other data — voting patterns or demographics — to estimate partisanship.
With those qualifiers in place, we can simply jump into the data. What we were interested in was less the numbers of people going from state to state (given the qualifier about those numbers) than the patterns of that movement. For each state, we calculated the number of Democrats, Republicans and third-party or nonpartisans that moved into a state since 2020 and the number of each group that moved out. Then we presented those totals as a percentage of the state’s total population.
This was the result. Thicker bars on the left side than the right indicate more arrivals than departures. The bars are generally ordered by size: If the Republican bar is on top, more Republicans than other groups were coming or going.
There are a lot of nuances to pick out of those charts; we’ll leave you to that.
Let’s drill down on the question we started with, though — considering how this might affect the presidential race. Comparing the net change among partisans (that is, those arriving minus those leaving) to the 2020 vote, we see that more-Democratic states were often those with bigger positive inflows of Democrats, though it’s cloudy. That partisan correlation was much stronger in more-Republican states.
In the middle there we see the swing states that flipped around in 2016 and 2020. We can pull the eight closest states in 2020 out and see that the net change by party varies. In Georgia, there’s been a bigger positive change for Democrats; in Florida, strongly for Republicans.
But what are the actual numbers, you demand. Well, in Georgia, the net advantage (comparing parties after subtracting outgoing voters from incoming ones) was a gain of about 18,000 Democrats. In Florida, it was 124,000 Republicans.
But again, this is just a sliver of movement. The Census Bureau’s data on moves from 2021 to 2022 shows 50 percent more inflow to Florida than there were new arrivals tracked by L2 over all four years. In Georgia, the Census Bureau’s one-year total is more than twice the L2 numbers. People are missed — including people registering for the first time.
There’s one other point worth making: People who have newly moved are less likely to vote. Here’s other data from the Census Bureau, looking at the 2020 election.
There are a lot of reasons for this: They haven’t registered yet, for one, or they may not know where they are supposed to cast their ballot. People who move frequently are less likely to own homes and skew younger, and younger people vote less often.
In other words, do not use these numbers to make bold predictions about how this consistently close presidential contest will end up. Use them, instead, as a reminder to register and vote.
As grim as the political scene is in Israel today – with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition bulldozing through contentious and damaging legislation on the final days of the Knesset before the October election – the view on the other side of the world in Washington regarding Israel is just as worrisome.
Two events overnight Wednesday emerging from the US Capitol, one a vote and the other an interview, exemplified the rockslide – turning into an avalanche – of anti-Israel sentiment that has taken hold in the hallowed halls of decision-makers.
The degree to which both the Republican and Democratic parties are sharpening their claws against Israel and hyper-focusing on it to the exclusion of critical issues indicates that the long-standing US-Israel bond is in a real crisis.
Nearly half of the Democrats in the House of Representatives, 103, voted for an amendment to cut off aid to Israel. The amendment was defeated 314-104. It was sponsored by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Kentucky), whose disagreement with his party on Israel is his signature issue. He recently lost the GOP primary to run for reelection in the November midterms.
Lest we breathe a sigh of relief that Republicans en masse voted against the amendment, US Vice President JD Vance demonstrated that Israel has just as much to worry about from the Right in the US.
Vance claims Israeli ‘influence campaigns’ affect US political decisions
In an interview with highly popular America First podcaster Joe Rogan, who has labeled Israel’s war efforts in Gaza as “genocide,” Vance suggested that shadowy Israeli “influence campaigns” exist in the US.
“I definitely think you have seen this very discreet, extremely well-funded campaign to try to derail the negotiation and try to derail the deal,” he told Rogan.
An article in Time magazine on Tuesday was “worth reading because it lists a bunch of people who have quite literally been paid by a former Trump campaign person, who was himself paid by certain elements within the Israeli government,” Vance said. “And those people are attacking me viciously for quite literally trying to accomplish the negotiation objective that the president set for the country.”
“Many of the people who were receiving that money were actually attacking me in completely dishonest ways,” he said. “You know, my response to that is: ‘Go to hell.’ I’m going to do what I have to do for the American people. I represent Americans first.”
Vance shares claim spread by far Right influencers linking Jeffrey Epstein to Israeli intelligence
Vance, who is seen as a prime contender to be the Republican nominee for president in 2028, also waded into the conspiracy surrounding Jeffrey Epstein, the late convicted sex offender. Epstein “clearly had connections to the highest levels of Israeli intelligence,” he said, reiterating a claim that has been refuted and discredited.
The embrace by such a senior Trump administration official of conspiracy theories about Epstein’s ties to Israeli intelligence, which have proliferated in the years since his death and often have veered into antisemitism, is part and parcel with Vance’s increasing alignment with the far Right base populated by the likes of Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, and Candace Owens.
Taken separately, the vote in the House of Representatives and the Vance interview are worrisome signs that the “special” relationship between Israel and the US is on life support at best. Taken together, they should be an alarming wake-up call that the days of the “kishkes” identification test with Israel – as exemplified diversely by the late Lindsey Graham and former president Joe Biden – are long gone.
Although it’s easy to place the blame elsewhere – and there are a plethora of strong arguments to be made in retort to both Democratic and Republican detractors of Israel – we must also look inward and see what can be done to reverse the tide of sentiment against us.
We can surely criticize the headline-provoking gambit by US Rep. Ro Khanna (D-California) last week, who chose to only hear and see the Palestinian side of life in the West Bank. But we can also acknowledge that vigilante Jewish groups are patrolling the area in a heavy-handed and lawless fashion that creates potentially lethal friction points and does irreparable damage to Israel’s image.
We can criticize Rahm Emmanuel for haughtily coming to Israel and warning us about what needs to be done to repair the US-Israel relationship, while acknowledging that some of his points were spot-on and unfolding before our very eyes in the House vote and Vance interview.
Jerusalem can no longer ignore or downplay the growing trends in the US of having to endorse the “Israel is genocide” trope to become a candidate, or of blaming Israel for getting the US entangled in Iran. The unsettling news this week demonstrates that with stark clarity.
Washington DC air quality could deteriorate Friday
Wildfire smoke from Canada may push DC to Code Red Friday (AQI 151–200); even healthy people may feel effects.
Washington DC’s air quality has worsened this week as wildfire smoke from Canada traveled hundreds of miles south, prompting air quality alerts and creating hazy skies across the region.
There’s belief by some forecasters that the worst is yet to come.
Here’s what they say about Friday’s forecast, which Capital Weather says could feature “the worst air quality in years” in DC.
Could air quality reach Code Red levels in Washington DC?
Washington DC’s air quality reached Code Orange this week, meaning conditions are unhealthy for sensitive groups, including children, older adults and people with heart or lung disease.
Forecasters warn conditions could deteriorate further Friday as a thicker plume of wildfire smoke settles over the region. The Maryland Department of the Environment’s forecast suggests parts of the DC metro area could reach Code Red — an AQI of 151 to 200 — if the heaviest smoke reaches the surface.
“A weak cold front will move south Thursday night and Friday morning, ushering in a significant amount of smoke into Maryland that will persist all day Friday due to weak, recirculating winds,” officials said.
Capital Weather Gang reported that smoke concentrations are expected to peak Friday afternoon into Friday evening, when air quality could deteriorate to levels not seen in three years.
Other forecasters indicate the highest concentrations of smoke are expected late Friday before conditions gradually improve over the weekend.
What do Code Red air quality levels mean?
Many areas north of DC are already in a Code Red, meaning anyone could experience health effects from the air quality, not just sensitive groups.
On the Air Quality Index (AQI) scale, Code Red represents levels between 151 and 200. At those levels, even healthy people may experience eye or throat irritation, coughing or difficulty breathing after prolonged exposure.
If the DC area were to reach that level, residents should limit their time outdoors. If you must spend an extended period outdoors, DC Health recommends wearing a well-fitting N95 or KN95 mask.
People with asthma, heart disease or other respiratory conditions, as well as children, older adults and pregnant people, may be especially vulnerable to wildfire smoke and should take extra precautions. Anyone who develops symptoms such as coughing, shortness of breath, chest pain or difficulty breathing should move indoors and seek medical attention if symptoms become severe.
SEATTLE – President Donald Trump fired a newly appointed federal prosecutor in Seattle less than an hour after he was named to the position.
What we know:
Former King County judge Roger Rogoff was assigned to take over as U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Washington on Wednesday. The seat has remained empty since Charles Neil Floyd was appointed as First Assistant U.S. Attorney back in February, though he kept running the office as western Washington’s U.S. District Attorney.
Rogoff was named to the position by Chief U.S. District Judge David G. Estudillo, but soon after the judicial order was posted, the White House blocked the move and fired Rogoff.
The backstory:
The Trump administration made similar moves in the firings of two other U.S. attorneys — Donal Kinsella of New York and Desiree Grace of New Jersey — the same day they were sworn in. Both were set to replace Trump-appointed interim judges, but were fired shortly after getting the job.
Local perspective:
Western Washington is not a typical case though, as the district hasn’t had a permanent U.S. Attorney since now-Attorney General Nick Brown left the position in 2023. Since then, there’s been several interim U.S. attorneys, which only allows them to serve for a limited time.
Rogoff was set to serve as acting U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Washington until President Trump selected a replacement. Instead, the position remains unfilled.
What they’re saying:
Acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche wrote the following in response to Rogoff’s firing:
“District court judges can appoint a temporary U.S. Attorney, and POTUS can fire them. WDWA judges abandoned the time-honored process of consultation with the administration so that the selected U.S. Attorney is qualified to serve in the administration. Roger Rogoff has been fired by the President.”
However, Senator Patty Murray criticized the decision, saying Rogoff was qualified for the position and appointed legally. She issued the following statement:
“Roger Rogoff’s is eminently qualified—throughout his career, he has demonstrated an outstanding commitment to public service, and he was appointed legally by the federal judges in the Western District of Washington. He should have never been fired, but the President wants to appoint an out-of-touch extremist who will put Trump over the rule of law. This administration doesn’t want to deal with advice and consent—they just want to install cronies to carry out a corrupt political agenda. The people of Washington state deserve someone in this role who will enforce the law fairly and responsibly—not some Trump administration sock puppet. The President needs to understand that DOJ works for the American people—it’s not his personal law firm to enforce his mob-style politics.”
What’s next:
A federal lawsuit could be in order challenging Rogoff’s dismissal, however no immediate announcements were made by state leaders.
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The Source: Information in this story came from order filed in U.S. District Court in the Western District of Washington, statements from acting U.S. Attorney General Todd Blanche and Senator Patty Murray, and FOX 13 Seattle reporting.
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