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Analysis | Where 2024 voters moved since 2020 — and how they registered

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Analysis | Where 2024 voters moved since 2020 — and how they registered


Between any two presidential elections, there is an enormous amount of churn in the electorate, both nationally and at the state level. A lot of this is obvious: People die, young people turn 18 and register to vote (and then often don’t vote again for a decade or two), people lose or gain interest in candidates or issues.

There’s another factor, too, that often goes underrecognized. Over the course of four years, a lot of people simply pull up stakes and move. And that, at least in theory, can have an effect on the outcome of an election.

This is not easy to track. The Census Bureau collects data on interstate moves year over year, but in the aggregate. We can’t see, for example, whether someone moved from one state to another and then back. And we can only guess at what the political effects might be. Is someone moving from Ohio to Michigan adding a Republican vote to the latter state or is it a Democrat seeking slightly bluer climes?

We have another set of data that offers us a better lens into this question of partisan flow. L2, a political data vendor, tracks individual registrations over time, including after people move across state lines. An analysis of that data offers a picture — albeit an incomplete one — of the influx and outflow of state residents by party.

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There are two caveats that are worth keeping in mind.

The first is that not every move is captured in this data, even among voters who were registered in both states. In many cases, of course, people moving across state lines will register to vote for the first time in the new state; they won’t be reflected in this data. Nor will people who couldn’t be matched to their prior registrations (generally because they didn’t complete a change of address form with the post office).

The other caveat is that this analysis includes partisanship data that’s modeled by L2. In some states, registration is nonpartisan. In those states, L2 uses other data — voting patterns or demographics — to estimate partisanship.

With those qualifiers in place, we can simply jump into the data. What we were interested in was less the numbers of people going from state to state (given the qualifier about those numbers) than the patterns of that movement. For each state, we calculated the number of Democrats, Republicans and third-party or nonpartisans that moved into a state since 2020 and the number of each group that moved out. Then we presented those totals as a percentage of the state’s total population.

This was the result. Thicker bars on the left side than the right indicate more arrivals than departures. The bars are generally ordered by size: If the Republican bar is on top, more Republicans than other groups were coming or going.

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There are a lot of nuances to pick out of those charts; we’ll leave you to that.

Let’s drill down on the question we started with, though — considering how this might affect the presidential race. Comparing the net change among partisans (that is, those arriving minus those leaving) to the 2020 vote, we see that more-Democratic states were often those with bigger positive inflows of Democrats, though it’s cloudy. That partisan correlation was much stronger in more-Republican states.

In the middle there we see the swing states that flipped around in 2016 and 2020. We can pull the eight closest states in 2020 out and see that the net change by party varies. In Georgia, there’s been a bigger positive change for Democrats; in Florida, strongly for Republicans.

But what are the actual numbers, you demand. Well, in Georgia, the net advantage (comparing parties after subtracting outgoing voters from incoming ones) was a gain of about 18,000 Democrats. In Florida, it was 124,000 Republicans.

But again, this is just a sliver of movement. The Census Bureau’s data on moves from 2021 to 2022 shows 50 percent more inflow to Florida than there were new arrivals tracked by L2 over all four years. In Georgia, the Census Bureau’s one-year total is more than twice the L2 numbers. People are missed — including people registering for the first time.

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There’s one other point worth making: People who have newly moved are less likely to vote. Here’s other data from the Census Bureau, looking at the 2020 election.

There are a lot of reasons for this: They haven’t registered yet, for one, or they may not know where they are supposed to cast their ballot. People who move frequently are less likely to own homes and skew younger, and younger people vote less often.

In other words, do not use these numbers to make bold predictions about how this consistently close presidential contest will end up. Use them, instead, as a reminder to register and vote.



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Lebanon hopes crunch talks in Washington will halt an Israeli invasion

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Lebanon hopes crunch talks in Washington will halt an Israeli invasion


Beirut, Lebanon – On Tuesday, representatives from Lebanon and Israel met at the US Department of State in Washington, DC – the first session of a two-day round of negotiations that Lebanese negotiators hope will end an invasion of their country.

The negotiations, which started at 9am local time (13:00 GMT), come as Israel’s invasion of Lebanon pushes deeper than at any point since the year 2000 and as Hezbollah and Israel continue to trade attacks. Israel has killed 3,468 people in Lebanon since March 2, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health.

With the war raging on, what do Lebanon and Israel have to discuss and will the talks lead to an end of the Israeli assault?

Here’s everything you need to know.

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What will Israel and Lebanon discuss?

Similar to past meetings, the two sides are ostensibly looking to come to some kind of deal following fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, with strong doubts it will be achieved.

Lebanon’s government is still pushing for a total ceasefire. However, as talks started, Israel was striking various parts of southern Lebanon. Lebanon is also trying to get Israel to withdraw from Lebanese territory in the south, so that more than 1.2 million displaced people can return home, and so the state can resume finding a way to disarm Hezbollah and rebuild areas devastated by Israeli attacks.

Israel is meanwhile looking to get assurances that Lebanon will disarm Hezbollah, a prospect analysts say Israel knows is complicated by the continuation of its military operations and occupation of swaths of southern Lebanon. Instead, Israel appears to be trying to fuel sectarian tensions inside Lebanon, leading to chaos and internal strife.

What has happened so far?

An initial meeting took place in April between Israel and Lebanon’s ambassadors to the United States. A second round took place in May with a larger delegation on both sides.

On Friday, a meeting took place with Lebanese and Israeli military representatives, while Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese group, is not involved in the meetings.

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Israel claimed the two sides found common ground in that they both wanted to see Hezbollah disarmed. Some Israeli officials suggested there may soon be trade agreements and an exchange of tourists between the two countries. Lebanon, however, said it preferred to find a deal closer to the 1949 armistice agreement between the two countries.

In the last meeting, Beirut reportedly outlined the damage done by Israeli attacks since the 2024 ceasefire agreement and presented detailed maps showing homes destroyed or razed by Israel.

Is there a chance for a ceasefire?

That remains to be seen, but for now, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country’s military would continue attacking Lebanon.

On Monday, Netanyahu announced that attacks on Beirut’s southern suburbs would resume, despite a ceasefire. Apart from two targeted attacks, Israel has not struck the suburbs, known as Dahiyeh, since April.

Iran, which has attempted to include Lebanon in a wider ceasefire between themselves, on one side, and Israel and the US on the other, then intervened by threatening to attack northern Israel.

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US President Donald Trump reportedly intervened to stop Israel’s attacks. He announced another ceasefire, after his previous announcement of one between Israel and Lebanon on April 16, after claiming he had gotten the approval of Netanyahu and spoken to Hezbollah.

“There will be no troops going to Beirut, and any troops that are on their way have already been turned back,” Trump announced on his social media platform, Truth Social.

But attacks from Israel and Hezbollah are continuing.

How do Lebanese people feel about the talks?

Not everyone is on the same page.

Some Lebanese support the talks and say they are the only option the state, which has little leverage, has. Among those who believe direct talks are the best way forward are Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

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“There is no option other than negotiation,” Aoun said in a statement on Tuesday.

Others, however, oppose direct talks. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and his allies, Hezbollah, have said indirect talks are preferred and that negotiations cannot be conducted while attacks are ongoing.

How are Iran and the US connected?

Israel and the US attacked Iran on February 28, killing the country’s longtime leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran is Hezbollah’s primary benefactor, and two days after Khamenei’s assassination, Hezbollah fired six rockets towards Israel on 2 March.

Hezbollah’s response brought a huge response from Israel, who have crossed the Litani River – the supposed buzzer zone in southern Lebanon it had created – towards the Zahrani River.

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Despite a 2024 ceasefire, Israel had never stopped attacking Lebanon, while Hezbollah had only responded once in December 2024.

Iran has attempted to include Lebanon in the ceasefire deal it has with the United States and Israel, who say this theatre is not part of the agreement.

Although Trump has now announced a ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel twice, the invasion of southern Lebanon continues.

Are there other actors involved?

Gulf states have also intervened. Saudi Arabia has been working behind the scenes to get Lebanon’s leadership – Aoun, Salam and Berri – on the same page. Meanwhile, analysts say Saudi Arabia and Qatar engaged the Trump administration to stop an escalation in Lebanon.



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Washington Lottery Powerball, Cash Pop results for June 1, 2026

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The Washington Lottery offers several draw games for those aiming to win big.

Here’s a look at June 1, 2026, results for each game:

Winning Powerball numbers from June 1 drawing

02-42-47-57-58, Powerball: 14, Power Play: 3

Check Powerball payouts and previous drawings here.

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Winning Cash Pop numbers from June 1 drawing

11

Check Cash Pop payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Pick 3 numbers from June 1 drawing

8-6-0

Check Pick 3 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Match 4 numbers from June 1 drawing

07-08-09-18

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Check Match 4 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Hit 5 numbers from June 1 drawing

03-10-28-32-33

Check Hit 5 payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Keno numbers from June 1 drawing

04-05-08-14-16-17-23-24-27-28-31-32-38-43-45-47-51-58-65-66

Check Keno payouts and previous drawings here.

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Winning Lotto numbers from June 1 drawing

05-09-10-15-21-26

Check Lotto payouts and previous drawings here.

Winning Powerball Double Play numbers from June 1 drawing

02-07-35-44-57, Powerball: 25

Check Powerball Double Play payouts and previous drawings here.

Feeling lucky? Explore the latest lottery news & results

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Are you a winner? Here’s how to claim your lottery prize

All Washington Lottery retailers can redeem prizes up to $600. For prizes over $600, winners have the option to submit their claim by mail or in person at one of Washington Lottery’s regional offices.

To claim by mail, complete a winner claim form and the information on the back of the ticket, making sure you have signed it, and mail it to:

Washington Lottery Headquarters

PO Box 43050

Olympia, WA 98504-3050

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For in-person claims, visit a Washington Lottery regional office and bring a winning ticket, photo ID, Social Security card and a voided check (optional).

Olympia Headquarters

Everett Regional Office

Federal Way Office

Spokane Department of Imagination

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Vancouver Office

Tri-Cities Regional Office

For additional instructions or to download the claim form, visit the Washington Lottery prize claim page.

When are the Washington Lottery drawings held?

  • Powerball: 7:59 p.m. PT Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.
  • Mega Millions: 8 p.m. PT Tuesday and Friday.
  • Cash Pop: 8 p.m. PT daily.
  • Pick 3: 8 p.m. PT daily.
  • Match 4: 8 p.m. PT daily.
  • Hit 5: 8 p.m. PT daily.
  • Daily Keno: 8 p.m. PT daily.
  • Lotto: 8 p.m. PT Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday.
  • Powerball Double Play: 8:30 p.m. PT Monday, Wednesday and Saturday.

This results page was generated automatically using information from TinBu and a template written and reviewed by a Washington editor. You can send feedback using this form.



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Worker killed by falling tree in Washington County

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Worker killed by falling tree in Washington County


A contract worker was killed by a falling tree on Monday afternoon in Washington County, officials said.

The Washington County Office of the Coroner said in a news release that the contractor was killed after the tree fell on them around 4 p.m. The worker, who was not immediately identified, was hired to cut down a tree at a residence on Lynn Portal Road in Canton Township, and it fell in an unintended direction, killing the person, the coroner said. 

No other information was immediately released on Monday evening. The Greene-Washington Regional Police Department and the coroner are investigating.

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This is a developing story. Please check back for updates. 



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