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Analysis | NCAA tournament bracketology: Selection Sunday has finally arrived

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Analysis | NCAA tournament bracketology: Selection Sunday has finally arrived


It’s been a Murphy’s Law couple of days for teams at the edge of the men’s NCAA tournament field. And it’s made the task of selecting the bracket’s 36 at-large teams all the more difficult.

A Saturday filled with unpredictability — from Brown’s upset of top-seeded Princeton in the 11 a.m. Ivy League semifinal to the WAC championship devolving into a game of dodgeball when Texas Arlington grew frustrated with Grand Canyon adding a dunk in the closing seconds — meant everything that could have gone wrong for the teams hoping to snare one of the last few berths in the tournament field almost certainly did.

There were the outright bid snatchers, North Carolina State and Oregon. The Wolfpack won its fifth game in five days, dispatching North Carolina for the program’s first ACC tournament title since 1987. Oregon picked off UCLA, Arizona and Colorado in a three-day span to claim the last Pac-12 title.

There was Florida Atlantic, failing to do the rest of the field a favor and falling to Temple in the American Athletic semifinals. Paired with Dayton’s loss in the Atlantic 10 tournament Thursday, there was no help coming from teams that could turn their conferences into one-bid leagues.

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Even the borderline tournament team in action couldn’t finish the job. Texas A&M fell to Florida, and the Aggies must wait for the committee’s verdict. That hasn’t been a good thing for Buzz Williams’s team the past two years; in 2022, Texas A&M was left out after a late push. Last year, it was arguably the most underseeded team in the field based on the numbers (though not on its subsequent first-round exit).

Among the other possible losers because of the tumult: Oklahoma and Virginia, two teams that didn’t do much wrong but have limited top-end success; Providence, Seton Hall and St. John’s, a parade of Big East teams with their own résumé limitations; and Indiana State, which last Sunday afternoon was a wild card and might now be an afterthought.

(Or it might not. Indiana State is a hard-to-evaluate variable, because its profile doesn’t look much like the power conference teams it is being compared with).

The one thing all of these teams have in common, whether they receive a reprieve or not, is they could have won more. Virginia could have made free throws. Oklahoma could have beaten someone better than Iowa or Kansas State away from home. Indiana State could have won Arch Madness. Pitt could have played a better nonconference schedule. Texas A&M could have avoided silly losses.

There will be caterwauling Sunday night from many schools, but the confluence of events tightened the field and might lead to a play-in game occupying the No. 10 seed line. It’s anyone’s guess whether the tournament will be a classic, but the week leading up to it already is unusual even by the standards of March.

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Sunday’s games to watch

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Ivy League final (New York): No. 2 Yale vs. No. 4 Brown, noon (ESPN2)

Brown (13-17) knocked out top-seeded Princeton in the first of Saturday’s Ivy semifinals, setting off day-long carnage for top seeds. The Bears can earn their first NCAA tournament berth since 1986, and third ever, with a defeat of Yale (21-9), which just lost at home to Brown on March 9.

Bracket impact: One-bid territory, though Yale has a much higher seeding territory than Brown.

SEC final (Nashville): No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 6 Florida, 1 (ESPN)

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Auburn (26-7) faces a path to an SEC title that goes through the No. 7 (South Carolina), No. 9 (Mississippi State) and No. 6 (Florida) seeds. Those are three NCAA tournament teams so it isn’t a clear path, but it didn’t include Tennessee or Kentucky, either. The Gators (24-10) ended Texas A&M’s run yesterday and have quietly stitched together a 13-4 mark since Jan. 20.

Bracket impact: Both are safely in the field, so maybe there are some seeding stakes here. Auburn can make a case for a No. 3 seed if it wins, and Florida might have a case to climb as high as the No. 5 line.

Atlantic 10 final (Brooklyn): No. 5 VCU vs. No. 6 Duquesne, 1 (CBS)

VCU (22-12) has hired six coaches this century. If the Rams win today, all of them will have led the program to an NCAA tournament within their first two years, with Ryan Odom doing it with a season to spare. Duquesne (23-11) is aiming for its first NCAA berth since 1977.

Bracket impact: Only one of these two is getting in, and both would be right around the No. 12 line.

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American Athletic final (Fort Worth): No. 4 UAB vs. No. 11 Temple, 3:15 (ESPN)

UAB (22-11) bounced top-seeded South Florida in the semifinals, while Temple (16-19) won its fourth game in four days by stunning Florida Atlantic. The Owls had won only four games in the 75 days leading up to the American tournament.

Bracket impact: Only one of these two gets in. UAB has the profile of a No. 13 or No. 14 seed, while Temple would be a genuinely difficult team to evaluate. Here’s guessing the Owls would be a No. 15 seed if they complete the five-wins-in-five-days marathon.

Big Ten final (Minneapolis): No. 2 Illinois vs. No. 5 Wisconsin, approx. 3:30 (CBS)

The traditional final game before the selection show pits the Fighting Illini (25-8) and the Badgers (22-12) in a matchup of two teams already in the field.

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Bracket impact: It’s always fair to wonder whether the Big Ten final impacts the field unless a bid snatcher is involved. Illinois is going to be a No. 3 or No. 4 seed, while Wisconsin is going to land right around a No. 5 seed.

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Last four included: Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Texas A&M, Virginia

First four on the outside: Oklahoma, Providence, Pitt, St. John’s

Next four on the outside: Indiana State, Seton Hall, Wake Forest, Ohio State

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Moving in: Long Beach State, N.C. State, Saint Peter’s, Oregon, Yale

Moving out: Fairfield, Oklahoma, Princeton, Providence, UC Davis

Conference call: Big 12 (8), Southeastern (8), Big Ten (6), Mountain West (6), Atlantic Coast (5), Pac-12 (4), Big East (3), American Athletic (2), Atlantic 10 (2), West Coast (2)

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(1) BIG EAST/Connecticut vs. (16) SWAC/Grambling-NORTHEAST/Wagner winner

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(8) Texas vs. (9) Colorado State

(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) AMERICAN ATHLETIC/UAB

(4) Alabama vs. (13) SOUTHERN/Samford

(3) Baylor vs. (14) OHIO VALLEY/Morehead State

(6) San Diego State vs. (11) ACC/N.C. State

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(7) Washington State vs. (10) Texas Christian

(2) Tennessee vs. (15) BIG SOUTH/Longwood

Connecticut with the top overall seed? It would be easy to give the Huskies that nod over Purdue because they won their conference tournament and no one else on the top line did. But Purdue’s set of victories away from home remains impressive. Those two will be the top two seeds, in some order. … Grambling will make the first NCAA tournament appearance in program history after beating Texas Southern in Saturday’s SWAC title game. …

When Virginia Tech won the ACC tournament as a No. 7 seed two years ago, it got a No. 11 seed. N.C. State will probably receive similar treatment, but in a year with less tumult, the Wolfpack would have been a line lower. … Texas Christian’s profile isn’t fabulous, but it does own a victory at Baylor. It also took both games it played from Oklahoma, which suddenly finds itself in a tenuous situation.

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(1) North Carolina vs. (16) MID-EASTERN ATHLETIC/Howard-BIG SKY/Montana State

(8) MOUNTAIN WEST/New Mexico vs. (9) Nebraska

(5) Texas Tech vs. (12) ATLANTIC 10/Virginia Commonwealth

(4) SEC/Auburn vs. (13) AMERICA EAST/Vermont

(3) BIG TEN/Illinois vs. (14) HORIZON/Oakland

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(6) Brigham Young vs. (11) SUN BELT/James Madison

(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) MISSOURI VALLEY/Drake

(2) Arizona vs. (15) BIG WEST/Long Beach State

New Mexico has never made it out of the opening weekend of the tournament in 12 tries since the field expanded to 64 in 1985. Nebraska has never even won a game in seven appearances. … Will the committee bump Auburn up to the No. 3 line if it beats Florida? That’s a hard sell for a team that would own three Quadrant 1 victories (it has two entering the day). …

James Madison could be one of the winners from all the upsets Friday and Saturday. The Dukes are comfortably on the No. 11 line in this projection. … Long Beach State fired Coach Dan Monson on Monday, effective the end of the season. Five days later, he led the 49ers to their first NCAA berth since 2012. …

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(1) Purdue vs. (16) METRO ATLANTIC/Saint Peter’s

(8) Nevada vs. (9) Colorado

(5) Florida vs. (12) WESTERN ATHLETIC/Grand Canyon

(4) Kansas vs. (13) COASTAL/College of Charleston

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(3) Creighton vs. (14) MID-AMERICAN/Akron

(6) Utah State vs. (11) Florida Atlantic/Virginia winner

(7) Clemson vs. (10) Northwestern

(2) Iowa State vs. (15) SUMMIT/South Dakota State

Maybe the committee avoids the rematch of Purdue’s Sweet 16 loss to Saint Peter’s. But heavens knows that game will be referenced no matter who the Boilermakers’ opponent is given their recent run of losses against double-digit seeds. … Grand Canyon makes its third NCAA trip in four years, and at 29-4, this is the Antelopes’ best chance to do some damage in the postseason since moving up to Division I in 2013. …

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Florida Atlantic, with a pair of Quad 4 losses (Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast) and Saturday’s setback against Temple, may have played its way to Dayton. It’s definitely unlikely the Owls exceed the No. 9 seed they had last year during their Final Four run. … Northwestern has a profile that’s sneaky underwhelming — a terrible nonconference schedule, a Quad 4 loss to Chicago State and not a truly noteworthy win away from home. Still, the Wildcats beat five projected tournament teams (Purdue, Illinois, Dayton, Michigan State and Nebraska), and that counts for something.

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(1) Houston vs. (16) ATLANTIC SUN/Stetson

(8) Dayton vs. (9) Mississippi State

(5) WEST COAST/Saint Mary’s vs. (12) SOUTHLAND/McNeese State

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(4) Kentucky vs. (13) IVY/Yale

(3) Duke vs. (14) PATRIOT/Colgate

(6) South Carolina vs. (11) PAC-12/Oregon

(7) Boise State vs. (10) Michigan State/Texas A&M winner

(2) Marquette vs. (15) CONFERENCE USA/Western Kentucky

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Even with a clunker in the Big 12 title game, Houston is ranked No. 1 in three of the team sheet metrics and No. 2 in the other two. The Cougars should anchor the South. … Oregon has used surprising Pac-12 tournament title runs to land a double-digit seed twice before (2013 and 2019) under Dana Altman, and both times the Ducks made the Sweet 16. Something to monitor. …

Who you beat should probably matter a little more than who you lost to. Texas A&M has seven Quad 1 victories, including five over teams projected to land a No. 5 seed or better. That should offset the four Quad 3 losses. … Western Kentucky Coach Steve Lutz is now 7-0 in conference tournaments. He led Texas A&M Corpus Christi to Southland titles the past two years, and now has the Hilltoppers back in the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013. That ends the program’s longest NCAA drought since 1940-60.



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Ted Sarandos Goes to Washington: What Matters as Netflix’s Chief Spars With Skeptical Lawmakers

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Ted Sarandos Goes to Washington: What Matters as Netflix’s Chief Spars With Skeptical Lawmakers


Inside the Capitol Building on Tuesday during Ted Sarandos’ appearance before the U.S. Senate’s antitrust subcommittee sat the Monopoly man, complete with a white mustache, top hat and red bowtie. The message, shared by some consumers and large swaths of Hollywood, to lawmakers was unmistakable: Netflix is poised to become an entertainment behemoth if it’s allowed to complete a $82.7 billion deal for Warner Bros. and HBO.

Just ahead of him was a cadre of Warner Bros. Discovery executives and lawyers in attendance to observe Sarandos’ testimony on the impact of the merger. The battle for the company will almost surely be fought in court, but the hearing turned into something of a legal session, with both Democratic and Republican senators pressing the executive on finer points of the acquisition as they relate to antitrust laws. Of specific interest was the market Netflix operates in, who it competes against and concerns that another media megamerger could undercut labor — key issues that may decide the fate of the deal if the Justice Department sues.

Sarandos appeared confident but friendly and answered questions directly, though he hedged when asked whether he would commit to restoring “full residuals.”

“It’s a very complicated answer,” Sarandos replied. His performance saw Netflix stock remain relatively flat as it continues to decline since the announcement of the deal.

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He pushed a narrative that Netflix buying Warner Bros. will help save a storied Hollywood studio from the “deep-pocked tech companies trying to run away with the TV business.” Those tech firms, he said, are Netflix’s true competitors, name-checking YouTube at several points during his testimony. “YouTube is not just cat videos anymore,” he explained. “YouTube is TV.”

That message was echoed by Warner Bros. Discovery chief revenue officer Bruce Campbell, who went a step further in arguing that Netflix can’t be pigeonholed to film and TV. “Consumers are experiencing a flood of options, including expanded social media platforms, digital and interactive games, and dozens of other entertainment options that compete for consumers’ interest and attention,” he said in his opening remarks.

Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT), chairman of the subcommittee, immediately zeroed in on the issue, saying that YouTube doesn’t produce original content and that the Google-owned company is “not in the same business.”

“They are a subscription service that has ad free and subscriptions options. It’s the exact same content,” Sarandos replied. “When we talk about competition, we’re competing for the same viewers, the same ad dollars and, sometimes, it’s the exact same programming.” The executive referenced the box office success of indie pic Iron Lung from Mark Fischbach (aka Markiplier) of YouTube gaming fame. The movie made nearly $17.9 million domestically and $21 million globally over the Jan. 30-Feb. 1 weekend.

“I’m struggling to grasp how it’s the same exact content,” Lee replied.

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Sarandos didn’t back down, responding that half of all YouTube engagement happens in the living room on the TV. “It’s a zero sum game,” he said. “If you’re watching YouTube, you’re not watching HBO. You’re not watching Netflix.”

If it does get to court, the biggest battleground will be defining the market in which Netflix is a competitor. The company will look to define it as broadly as possible, likely arguing that it competes against the YouTubes and TikToks of the world. By Netflix’s thinking, it’s a competition for time and attention rather than for viewers solely looking to watch movies and TV shows.

The Justice Department, meanwhile, will look to keep the confines of the fight to streaming. A Netflix, Warner Bros. Discovery rollup would give the combined company more than 30 percent of the streaming market according to some measures, a key threshold typically viewed as problematic under antitrust law. Still, it’s a far cry from the 50 percent marketshare benchmark that triggers a presumption of monopoly power by the courts.

At several points in the hearing, Sarandos stressed that Netflix has roughly 9 percent of total TV viewing, behind YouTube and Disney. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) challenged the assertion. “That’s defining the market how you want,” he said. “In the streaming market, what percent do you have of the market.”

Sarandos shot back, “For us, that would be a fantasy construct.”

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When only including streaming services, Netflix accounts for roughly 19 percent of viewing. That figure would increase to around 21 percent if it’s allowed to purchase Warner Bros.

Another avenue the government could pursue to block the deal is a monopsony theory, or whether the combined company would have too much power over creators and talent. Sarandos and Campbell were the only streaming executives who testified, but they were treated as stand-ins for the entire media and entertainment industries, which have seen significant consolidation over the last two decades, slowly whittling away at labor’s leverage.

In a sharp exchange, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) asked Sarandos to commit to restoring “full residuals.” Sarandos, appearing slightly flustered, said it’s “very complicated” and that “we prepay,” to which Hawley interjected to say “that’s usually a way of saying no.”

Netflix said in a statement it already pays residuals. “According to the WGA, residuals have reached an all time high of $493.9M (up 5% from ‘20 to ‘23) — streaming accounts for ~45%, of which the lions’ share comes from Netflix,” it said.

Sen. Peter Welch (D-VT) pressed Sarandos, who committed to a 45-day theatrical window, on the fewer paths creators will have for the acquisition of their content with one less company in play.

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Sarandos said Netflix has multiple purchasing arms within the company, including for family, comedy and drama content. “You can pitch to all three teams,” he explained. “One may pass and one may take it.” If the deal is greenlit, the executive said buying entities within Warner Bros. and Netflix will remain independent.

Some of the most aggressive questions came from Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-MO), who pressed Sarandos and Campbell on the companies “promoting DEI and wokeness” while pointing to content that portray vikings and Cleopatra as Black — content that some conservatives have used as examples of Hollywood pushing a political agenda. “Why in the world would we give the seal of approval to make you the largest behemoth in the planet related to content,” he said. “It seems as though you’ve engaged in not only creating content but the wokest content in the history of the world.”

Sarandos asserted that Netflix caters to all viewers, who are an even 40% split of conservatives and liberals.

One notable person absent from the hearing: Paramount CEO David Ellison, who met with lawmakers privately but declined to make an appearance as he pursues a hostile bid for all of Warner Bros. Discovery, according to Booker. The lawmaker said he has “serious concerns” with Paramount’s involvement in the deal due to allegations of “political favoritism” by President Donald Trump.

“Does that strike you as improper,” Booker asked Campbell, referencing Ellison’s meeting with Trump, after which a deal was reached to resolve a lawsuit over a 60 Minutes interview with former vice president Kamala Harris.

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“It was unusual, yes,” Campbell said.



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Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos stays silent as employees brace for cuts

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Washington Post owner Jeff Bezos stays silent as employees brace for cuts


While Washington Post employees remain in the dark about an impending round of cuts that could dramatically reshape the publication, the man that many hoped could soften or stop the blow, owner Jeff Bezos, has remained silent.

So far, three staff-organized letters sent by Post employees to Bezos imploring him to protect the Post’s robust coverage have gone unanswered.

The first plea went to Bezos on 25 January, when about 60 people signed a letter asking him to protect the company’s foreign news operation, which is rumored to be a major target of cost-cutting.

Two days later, employees sent Bezos a letter asking him to preserve the newspaper’s local coverage, which is also said to be at risk for heavy cuts.

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“Should you allow Post management to lay off the local staff, which has been cut in half in the last five years, the effect on this region and the people in it will be immeasurable,” the staffers wrote. “We care deeply about the DC area, and we know you do, too.”

At the end of last week, the publication’s White House reporters sent a letter to Bezos urging him to avoid cutting coverage areas central to its readership. Post staffers have also filmed and posted videos on social media urging Bezos to “#savethepost”.

While Post chief executive Will Lewis has been included on at least one of the emails, the letters have been addressed to Bezos, who some staffers hope might be more persuadable. (Matt Murray, the Post’s top editor, has had private discussions with several Post journalists in recent weeks, according to a source with knowledge of the situation.)

“As the Post’s [owner], Bezos is ultimately making the call on these cuts,” said a Post staffer who signed one of the letters but was not authorized to comment. “He also has enough money to do whatever he chooses here. Reporters across the newsroom want to be sure he understands the magnitude of the devastating cuts that we all expect are coming.”

Emails sent by the Guardian to Bezos and a representative at the company he founded, Amazon, have not been returned. A Post spokesperson declined to comment on the rumored cuts.

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The Post staffer described the mood at the paper as “funereal”, with many expecting the cuts to come in the next few days – though the publication still has not acknowledged or confirmed that anything is happening. A rally to protest the cuts has been scheduled for outside the Post’s headquarters on Thursday.

On Monday, the union representing most Post employees called out Bezos in a series of posts on Twitter/X. “If @JeffBezos follows through with his reported plan to decimate the Post’s newsroom, it will be a huge indictment of his supposed business prowess,” the account wrote. “How else to explain his failure to monetize some of the world’s most award-winning, agenda-setting journalism?”

Some Post staffers also noted that Bezos has not yet commented on the 14 January raid of a Post reporter’s home, even though many groups that advocate for journalists decried the government’s tactics as unprecedented and dangerous. Cameron Barr, a former managing editor of the Post, called out Bezos for his silence in a post on LinkedIn, writing: “It’s not just the chest-thumping overreach of the Trump administration that will crush American freedoms – it’s the silence of its enablers.”

Amazon and Bezos have also faced criticism for spending approximately $75m to acquire and promote a documentary about Melania Trump – particularly after Bezos faced accusations of cozying up to Trump by killing the Post’s planned endorsement last fall of Kamala Harris for president.

Glenn Kessler, who ended a 27-year-long career at the Post last year, expressed cautious optimism about the campaign to reach Bezos. “That kind of pushback might have an impact,” he said. “We don’t really know until we see what the actual result is.”

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Kessler said he and a few other reporters had lunch with Bezos, who purchased the paper in 2013, after Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 election. “He wanted to hear war stories and that sort of thing,” he recalled. “He was quite interested in what people did. He had this great laugh, and he seemed quite engaged.”

But Kessler was heavily critical of Bezos’s handling of the Harris endorsement and his decision to refocus the section’s opinion page to prioritize writing “in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets”, decisions that led to the resignation of a top editor and quickly cost the Post hundreds of thousands of subscribers.

“Even before these cuts, you can question the quality of Bezos’s stewardship,” Kessler said. “The sense I get is that he’s not nearly as engaged with the Post as he once was. If you’re not really that engaged or invested in the thing that you own, the easiest thing to do is to cut back the money you’re losing on it.”

“I think it’s hard to overestimate how excited the journalists and editors were when Bezos bought the company,” recalled political journalist Chris Cillizza, who worked at the Post from 2006 to 2017. “The richest man in the world buys the company and he says all the right things. I think people were slower to see that something had changed because they wanted to believe so badly that the original sense we had of Bezos was it.”

Cillizza remembered being skeptical when Bezos said he intended the Post to be profitable. “I remember thinking to myself even then, in 2013: ‘Man, that’s going to be tough.’”

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While Bezos has stayed silent about potential cuts to the Post, and ignored an effort by the union last year to get him to visit the newspaper, he was more visibly engaged with one of his other companies on Monday, the spaceflight startup Blue Origin.

Bezos was on hand to meet secretary of defense Pete Hegseth, who last November called the Post’s reporting “fake news”, during a visit to the company’s facility in Florida. “Great to see you,” Bezos told Hegseth. “Welcome – it’s an honor to have you.”



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Mavericks’ P.J. Washington in concussion protocol, set to miss meeting with Celtics

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Mavericks’ P.J. Washington in concussion protocol, set to miss meeting with Celtics


The Mavericks will be without P.J. Washington for their Tuesday meeting with the Boston Celtics.

Dallas officially listed Washington as out for Tuesday’s game. According to the team’s injury report, Washington is in concussion protocol.

Washington left Saturday’s game against the Houston Rockets in the fourth quarter after taking an elbow to the head from teammate Naji Marshall. The veteran forward sat on the bench for a brief period, but was rubbing his forehead before he walked back to the locker room.

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Guard Brandon Williams, who also left Saturday’s game early, was listed as questionable on the injury report with a right lower leg contusion.

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Two-way players Ryan Nembhard and Miles Kelly are listed as probable, while Moussa Cisse is questionable. Tip-off for Tuesday’s Mavericks-Celtics game is scheduled for 7 p.m. at American Airlines Center.

Find more Mavericks coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.





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