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Analysis | 5 key X factors in the Biden vs. Trump rematch

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Analysis | 5 key X factors in the Biden vs. Trump rematch


Welcome to The Campaign Moment.

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It’s now definitely, assuredly — if not yet officially — general election time (that will happen later summer at the party conventions). Both President Biden and former president Donald Trump secured enough delegates Tuesday to win their parties’ nominations this summer, meaning we can now call them the “presumptive” nominees.

And that means it’s time for a reset about what lies ahead. I think a good way to look at that is isolating a few key X factors that go a long way to determining who wins in November.

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There is no question Democrats have lost ground with Black and Hispanic voters, especially among men; the question is how much — and whether it could be decisive.

Many polls show Trump with twice or even three times as much Black support as he got in 2016 (6 percent, according to Pew data) and 2020 (8 percent). If that actually happened — on top of Hispanics’ clear rightward shift in recent elections — it would significantly imperil Biden’s path to victory.

But you rarely see such a major, quick realignment in the American electorate. And there are reasons to be skeptical that’s what we’re about to see.

Still, it’s not just about whether Black or Hispanic voters support Trump; it’s also whether they intend to vote at all. Depressed turnout in the Democratic coalition could be Biden’s worst enemy.

Repeatedly in recent weeks, polling has shown Americans approve of Trump’s presidency more than they ever did when he was in office.

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A case in point Wednesday was a USA Today/Suffolk University poll showing nearly half of registered voters did so. That’s despite then-President Trump’s approval rarely reaching beyond the low-40s and falling sharply in his closing days, after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection.

It’s normal for former presidents’ images to improve when they’re out of office. But that’s usually because they fade away and people forget what they disliked. There will be no fading away for Trump over the next eight months, as Democrats will do everything in their power to remind Americans why they disliked about him in the first place — with a potential assist from Trump’s court cases.

Related is just how much Americans have truly absorbed Trump’s increasingly authoritarian vision. Polling suggests they haven’t — not really. But that will surely change as Democrats seek to drive home Trump’s plans for his potential second term. He has, after all, talked about being a dictator for at least one day. Three-quarters of Republicans say that’s “probably” a good thing.

The question from there would become whether stuff like pardoning Jan. 6 defendants, demanding full presidential immunity and directly targeting his political foes for prosecution are deal-breakers for enough Americans.

But Americans already view Trump as extreme, and it’s not been a deal-breaker so far. A CNN poll last month showed that a full 63 percent of Americans labeled Trump “too extreme”; he still led Biden in a head-to-head matchup.

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The White House and the Biden campaign suggest this is a media construct, but it’s something the electorate has been very concerned about for a long time. As many as one-quarter of Biden 2020 voters say he’s too old to serve effectively, and 19 percent say it means he’s “not capable of handling the job of president.”

Biden’s State of the Union address last week didn’t appear to allay concerns as much as the left would like (see below).

The real danger here is not so much that it causes Biden voters to flip to Trump, but that it leads them to stay home or vote third-party. Perhaps the specter of Trump will ultimately be enough for these voters to ultimately pull the lever for Biden, but it’s a very significant complicating factor when voters don’t believe you have what it takes to actually do the job.

This has clearly been Biden’s biggest policy liability. But Republicans gave Biden something to work last month with when they killed a bipartisan deal that could have significant shored up the border.

While early polling suggested Americans weren’t exactly clamoring for such a deal, a Wall Street Journal poll last week that described the legislation showed Americans supported it 59 percent to 34 percent.

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Americans still strongly disapprove of Biden on immigration — about 2-to-1. And that poll showed they’re still more likely to blame the chaotic border on Biden’s reversal of Trump’s immigration executive orders (45 percent) than on the failure of the congressional deal (39 percent).

But that’s actually a pretty close margin. Given Americans have overwhelmingly favored the GOP on this issue, it suggests Biden could conceivably chip away at that advantage if he drives this issue home like he did in his State of the Union.

A moment for fading protest votes

As for the actual election results on Tuesday?

Nikki Haley’s vote shares fell a week after she dropped out of the race, but she still took 22 percent in Washington state and 13 percent in Georgia.

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The Post’s Scott Clement and Lenny Bronner note the Georgia results are something of a mirage. The latest data show Haley got just 7 percent of Election Day voters, compared to 20 percent of early voters. The early vote was overwhelmingly conducted when Haley was still a candidate, beginning Feb. 19 and ending Friday. (Haley also got 28 percent of absentee voters, a much smaller share of the electorate.)

That said, regardless of when the votes came in, Haley continued to do disproportionately well in metro areas and the suburbs, which loom as a potential problem for Trump. She took around 40 percent in Atlanta-based Fulton and DeKalb counties. She also got 34 percent in Seattle-based King County.

As for Biden, he ceded 7.5 percent of the vote in Washington state to “uncommitted,” the option critics of his stance on the war in Gaza have pushed. That’s a smaller share than he previously ceded in Hawaii (29 percent), Minnesota (19 percent), Michigan (13 percent) and Colorado (9 percent).

Biden’s not-so-momentous post-State of the Union polls

On Friday, I noted that all the hype surrounding Biden’s State of the Union address wasn’t really borne out in an instant CNN poll.

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And now, more substantial polling would appear to confirm he got no real bump.

  • 33 percent of those who watched at least some of the speech said it improved their view of Biden, the Suffolk poll shows.
  • 28 percent said the opposite.
  • Independents were about evenly split.

Perhaps more troubling for Biden, a Yahoo/YouGov poll showed no real improvement on the issue many Biden supporters wagered he had mitigated with the speech: his age and mental acuity.

  • 29 percent said Biden was fit to serve another term, unchanged from January.
  • 51 percent said his age is a “big problem” that affects his fitness, unchanged from January.
  • 17 percent who watched said Biden seemed “not as old” as expected.

Such questions can get bogged down in polarization. But tellingly, the poll suggests Biden didn’t even gain with Democrats on these issues. And both polls showed virtually no change in his image numbers.

  • Trump’s freewheeling speeches offer a dark vision of a second term (Washington Post)
  • Trump takes control of the RNC with mass layoffs, restructuring (Washington Post)
  • How Donald Trump switched to defending TikTok (Washington Post)
  • Biden aims to repair places left broken by previous economic strategies (Washington Post)
  • Five takeaways from the Hur special counsel hearing (Washington Post)
  • The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same (New York Times)
  • Trump Courts Black Voters Even as He Traffics in Stereotypes (New York Times)



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Nats trading MacKenzie Gore to Rangers for prospects, AP source says

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Nats trading MacKenzie Gore to Rangers for prospects, AP source says


All-Star left-hander MacKenzie Gore is headed to the Texas Rangers in a trade that sends five prospects back to the Nationals in the biggest move of new Washington president of baseball operations Paul Toboni’s roster rebuilding efforts, a person with knowledge of the swap told The Associated Press on Thursday.

The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the deal had not yet been announced.

Gore gives the 2023 World Series champions a starter who should be able to help the front end of their rotation along with Jacob deGrom — a two-time Cy Young Award winner who was the American League Comeback Player of the Year in 2025 — and Nathan Eovaldi, who dealt with a rotator cuff strain and had surgery for a sports hernia after compiling a 1.73 ERA in 22 starts.

Gore is under team control for the next two seasons; he can’t become a free agent until after the 2027 World Series. He is scheduled to make $5.6 million in 2026 after a one-year deal with the Nationals that avoided arbitration.

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Gore, who turns 27 next month, is 26-41 with a 4.19 ERA in four major league seasons, the past three with Washington. He was an NL All-Star last season, when he ended up going 5-15 with a 4.17 ERA and a career-best 185 strikeouts in 30 appearances, all starts.

He was the No. 3 overall pick in the 2017 amateur draft by the San Diego Padres and was sent to the Nationals in the 2022 trade that included Juan Soto.

The players Washington is receiving from Texas are Yeremy Cabrera, Gavin Fien, Devin Fitz-Gerald, Abimelec Ortiz, Alejandro Rosario.

Fien is an 18-year-old shortstop who was taken out of high school in the first round of last year’s draft.

Fitz-Gerald is a 20-year-old infielder, Rosario is a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher, Cabrera is a 20-year-old outfielder and Ortiz is a 23-year-old first baseman and outfielder.

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All five are considered among the top 20 prospects in the Rangers’ system.



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Washington Mardi Gras is a party with a purpose: ‘It’s a chance to move projects along.’

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Washington Mardi Gras is a party with a purpose: ‘It’s a chance to move projects along.’


On a weekday evening in early February 2023, Ricky Templet was visiting with friends and colleagues in the lounge of the Waldorf Astoria hotel in Washington, D.C.

Templet, then a Jefferson Parish council member, and his wife, Christine, had checked into the hotel that day to attend events related to Washington Mardi Gras, an eight-decade-old celebration of Louisiana culture that now draws more than 3,000 people to the nation’s capital to mingle with Louisiana’s federal, state and local leaders.

As he waited for Christine to join him, Templet struck up a conversation with David Cresson, then the head of the Coastal Conservation Association of Louisiana, about an artificial reef project in his district.



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The discussion only lasted a few minutes, but it paid off big. Templet said Cresson connected him with a corporate partner that ultimately picked up most of the reef project’s nearly $500,000 tab.

It might have been a chance encounter, but, in many respects, that conversation — and countless others like it — are the reason that Washington Mardi Gras has become a bigger and bigger draw for anyone doing business in the state.







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The Franciscan Missionaries of Our Lady Health System hosted “Joe de Vivre Reception” at the Waldorf Astoria Hotel on Wednesday night, January 22, 2025. The cocktail party, like most invitation-only events that coincide with Washington Mardi Gras, was well attended by partiers who arrived over the weekend and were not delayed by south Louisiana airports closed because of the blizzard.

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“It’s the premier networking event for the state of Louisiana,” Templet said in a phone interview last week. “It’s a chance for all 64 parishes to meet with representatives and their peers, hear about the best new ideas and move projects along.”

At this year’s D.C. Mardi Gras, scheduled for Jan. 27 through Feb. 1, there will be more of those business networking opportunities than ever before as more groups host receptions, schedule panels and set up hospitality suites in the hopes of capturing more of that deal-making magic.



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2025 New Orleans Chamber Washington Mardi Gras Event

New Orleans City Council member Lesli Harris, center, mingles with fellow attendees at a networking event sponsored by the New Orleans Chamber during 2025 Washington Mardi Gras. 




It’s all happening because recent history shows that, despite the event’s boozy and festive atmosphere, it’s a time and place where a critical mass of decision-makers get together to make deals happen. 

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“If you made a list of the thousand most influential politicians and private sector leaders in Louisiana — CEOs, elected officials, lobbyists, subject matter experts, you name it — they are all there,” said Susan Bourgeois, secretary of Louisiana Economic Development, a state agency that is increasing its presence at D.C. Mardi Gras this year. “There’s no denying the effectiveness of attending.”

‘There’s no more target-rich environment’

Templet’s coastal restoration windfall is far from the only successful deal to come out of spur-of-the-moment conversations at Washington Mardi Gras.

What could become the biggest outside investment in Louisiana history, the Meta Hyperion data center in north Louisiana, was partially conceived during interactions at the 2024 gathering, when executives from Entergy, the state’s biggest utility, tipped off leaders at LED that Meta was on the hunt for a location for its massive project.







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Washington Mardi Gras 2025 King Rico Alvendia and Queen Kendall Williams attend the King’s USO concert on Thursday.




On a smaller scale, but still transformational, the $200 million redevelopment of the former Cortana Mall site in Baton Rouge into an Amazon distribution center also traces its roots to Washington Mardi Gras, when execs of the tech company struck up a dialogue with members of the Baton Rouge Area Chamber, according to Adam Knapp, the chamber’s former CEO who now leads Leaders for a Better Louisiana, the state’s business roundtable.

“We scheduled a meeting in the hallways at the Hilton to brainstorm site selection,” Knapp said. “They had some fulfillment centers at that point but hadn’t yet built large distribution facilities in the state.” 

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Hoping to create more moments like that, Louisiana business champions are creating more opportunities for networking. That means an event that began in 1945 as a party for homesick politicos has evolved into a more decentralized business gathering that has programming for plenty of people who may not even attend events produced by The Mystick Krewe of Louisianians, the private social organization that hosts the Saturday-night ball and other parties. 







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King Drew Brees, center, carries his Saint’s helmet scepter at the Washington Mardi Gras Ball at the Washington Hilton on Saturday, January 27, 2024. (Photo by Chris Granger, The Times-Picayune)

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In the Washington Hilton — the event’s epicenter — businesses, nonprofits, chambers and others pay for hospitality suites that welcome visitors and meetings throughout the week. A Friday economic development lunch has become a particularly in-demand gathering.

“Everybody throws a party now,” said Ruth Lawson, president of the Jefferson Chamber, which has hosted a Hilton hospitality suite for nearly two decades. “You could be at a different event every 10 minutes.” 

Three years ago, Greater New Orleans Inc., the south Louisiana regional economic development nonprofit, began co-hosting events at the Hilton as well. Jasmine Brown DeRousselle, who oversees GNO Inc.’s annual brunch, said she’s seen an increase in business events just in the four years she’s attended.



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People line up to enter the Washington Mardi Gras Ball at the Washington Hilton on Saturday, January 27, 2024. (Photo by Chris Granger, The Times-Picayune)




“That’s why we started our series,” she said. “A lot of people didn’t know how to be a part of the moment without being in the krewe.”

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LED is revving up new programming this year, too, debuting what Bourgeois calls a “hospitality suite on steroids” at the Hilton. The space, modeled after a tent the agency set up in downtown New Orleans before last year’s Super Bowl, will host panels on the energy and logistics industries, and a conversation focused on innovation.

Bourgeois, who plans to spend the entire week in D.C., said most of her senior staff is attending the event as well because “there is no more target-rich environment for the work we do.”

Beyond the Hilton

Washington Mardi Gras programming has long since outgrown the Hilton, where one of the lounges is temporarily renamed “The 65th Parish” for the occasion and rumor has it that the weekend sets records for liquor sales.







Washington Mardi Gras

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Purple reigned at the 2025 Washington Mardi Gras celebration,




For the last three years, the New Orleans Chamber has hosted a hospitality suite and reception across the street at The Churchill Hotel. The chamber has a 40-room block to accommodate anyone who wants to be close but not too close to the action across the street. The Thursday night reception, expected to draw several hundred people, attracts elected officials and business leaders from all over the state who want to make connections with their counterparts in New Orleans.

A 10-minute drive away, The Willard Hotel has been home to D.C. Mardi Gras-related events for more than a decade.

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Washington Mardi Gras

The Rebirth Brass Band leads a second line parade at the 2022 Washington Mardi Gras.



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There, Leaders for a Better Louisiana (formerly the Committee of 100) hosts a members-only conference of the state’s top CEOs on Wednesday and Thursday before the Washington Mardi Gras ball. Several hundred members attend daytime policy briefings, meetings on Capitol Hill and plenty of parties. 

“Credit to my predecessors, who saw an opportunity to do more than the economic development lunch,” said Knapp. “So many business leaders are there already that it’s an opportunity to give them more content about big issues.”

Throughout the week, other businesses and organizations host events in Capitol Hill offices, corporate lobbies, embassies and other locations around town. Entergy is a frequent host, as are trade groups representing the state’s energy, petrochemical and port industries. 

It all can test the average human’s capability for schmoozing, but Gray Stream, the Lake Charles-based businessman who is serving as the ceremonial king of this year’s event, said he’s making a point to attend as many events as possible to help promote the state.

He’s also spending big to host a king’s lunch of his own, meaning he and his family have been planning invitations, menus and other details for months.

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“My wife is calling the whole thing ‘Gray’s wedding,’” he said. 

New perspective

Bryan Jones, a lobbyist for the national infrastructure firm HNTB, has a new perspective on the event that he’s attended for roughly 15 years.

A member of the krewe that hosts it, Jones said he and his wife used to treat the gathering like a weekend getaway, leaving the kids home with their parents.







Washington Mardi Gras

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Former U.S. Sen. John Breaux and Bryan Jones, an executive at the infrastructure firm HNTB, prepare to join the festivities at Washington Mardi Gras on Jan, 27, 2024 at the Washington Hilton hotel.




Now that he’s been promoted to HNTB’s Washington, D.C., office, where he oversees the company’s Mid-Atlantic footprint, he has to balance the party with getting home in time to make lunches and help with homework, but he sees the business value more than ever.

“Washington Mardi Gras allows for people to get together outside of Louisiana, have conversations about business and politics, build those relationships and then come back home and see those deals through,” he said. “Some of my closest business relationships over the years have been forged there.”

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Washington Spirit Recalls Forward Emma Gaines-Ramos From Loan

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Washington Spirit Recalls Forward Emma Gaines-Ramos From Loan


Gaines-Ramos returns to DC after half season with Tampa Bay Sun FC 

Washington, D.C. (01/21/2026) – The Washington Spirit has recalled forward Emma Gaines-Ramos from her loan with Tampa Bay Sun FC of the Gainbridge Super League, the club announced today. Gaines-Ramos will join the Spirit for preseason training this month.

“We look forward to having Emma back in training with us,” said General Manager Nathan Minion. “She has really benefited from her time in Tampa and we expect her to continue her development with us.”

Gaines-Ramos tallied over 300 minutes for Tampa Bay through the first half of the side’s 2025-26 season, providing one assist in the process. Gaines-Ramos signed with Washington in January 2025 after an impressive collegiate career at San Diego State. 

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The Spirit will look to build on the side’s second consecutive NWSL Championship appearance in 2026. The team will kick off the regular season at home on Friday, March 13 when it hosts Portland Thorns FC in a rematch of last season’s thrilling home semifinal. Information on 2026 season ticket memberships is available HERE. 

 

About The Washington Spirit

The Washington Spirit is the premier professional women’s soccer team based in Washington, D.C. and plays at Audi Field in Buzzard Point. The Spirit was founded on November 21, 2012 and is an inaugural member of the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) the fastest growing sports league in the US. The club is home to some of the best players in the world who have won championships for both club and country. For more information about the Spirit, visit WashingtonSpirit.com and follow the club on Twitter, Instagram and Facebook.

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