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Analysis | 5 key X factors in the Biden vs. Trump rematch

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Analysis | 5 key X factors in the Biden vs. Trump rematch


Welcome to The Campaign Moment.

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It’s now definitely, assuredly — if not yet officially — general election time (that will happen later summer at the party conventions). Both President Biden and former president Donald Trump secured enough delegates Tuesday to win their parties’ nominations this summer, meaning we can now call them the “presumptive” nominees.

And that means it’s time for a reset about what lies ahead. I think a good way to look at that is isolating a few key X factors that go a long way to determining who wins in November.

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There is no question Democrats have lost ground with Black and Hispanic voters, especially among men; the question is how much — and whether it could be decisive.

Many polls show Trump with twice or even three times as much Black support as he got in 2016 (6 percent, according to Pew data) and 2020 (8 percent). If that actually happened — on top of Hispanics’ clear rightward shift in recent elections — it would significantly imperil Biden’s path to victory.

But you rarely see such a major, quick realignment in the American electorate. And there are reasons to be skeptical that’s what we’re about to see.

Still, it’s not just about whether Black or Hispanic voters support Trump; it’s also whether they intend to vote at all. Depressed turnout in the Democratic coalition could be Biden’s worst enemy.

Repeatedly in recent weeks, polling has shown Americans approve of Trump’s presidency more than they ever did when he was in office.

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A case in point Wednesday was a USA Today/Suffolk University poll showing nearly half of registered voters did so. That’s despite then-President Trump’s approval rarely reaching beyond the low-40s and falling sharply in his closing days, after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection.

It’s normal for former presidents’ images to improve when they’re out of office. But that’s usually because they fade away and people forget what they disliked. There will be no fading away for Trump over the next eight months, as Democrats will do everything in their power to remind Americans why they disliked about him in the first place — with a potential assist from Trump’s court cases.

Related is just how much Americans have truly absorbed Trump’s increasingly authoritarian vision. Polling suggests they haven’t — not really. But that will surely change as Democrats seek to drive home Trump’s plans for his potential second term. He has, after all, talked about being a dictator for at least one day. Three-quarters of Republicans say that’s “probably” a good thing.

The question from there would become whether stuff like pardoning Jan. 6 defendants, demanding full presidential immunity and directly targeting his political foes for prosecution are deal-breakers for enough Americans.

But Americans already view Trump as extreme, and it’s not been a deal-breaker so far. A CNN poll last month showed that a full 63 percent of Americans labeled Trump “too extreme”; he still led Biden in a head-to-head matchup.

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The White House and the Biden campaign suggest this is a media construct, but it’s something the electorate has been very concerned about for a long time. As many as one-quarter of Biden 2020 voters say he’s too old to serve effectively, and 19 percent say it means he’s “not capable of handling the job of president.”

Biden’s State of the Union address last week didn’t appear to allay concerns as much as the left would like (see below).

The real danger here is not so much that it causes Biden voters to flip to Trump, but that it leads them to stay home or vote third-party. Perhaps the specter of Trump will ultimately be enough for these voters to ultimately pull the lever for Biden, but it’s a very significant complicating factor when voters don’t believe you have what it takes to actually do the job.

This has clearly been Biden’s biggest policy liability. But Republicans gave Biden something to work last month with when they killed a bipartisan deal that could have significant shored up the border.

While early polling suggested Americans weren’t exactly clamoring for such a deal, a Wall Street Journal poll last week that described the legislation showed Americans supported it 59 percent to 34 percent.

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Americans still strongly disapprove of Biden on immigration — about 2-to-1. And that poll showed they’re still more likely to blame the chaotic border on Biden’s reversal of Trump’s immigration executive orders (45 percent) than on the failure of the congressional deal (39 percent).

But that’s actually a pretty close margin. Given Americans have overwhelmingly favored the GOP on this issue, it suggests Biden could conceivably chip away at that advantage if he drives this issue home like he did in his State of the Union.

A moment for fading protest votes

As for the actual election results on Tuesday?

Nikki Haley’s vote shares fell a week after she dropped out of the race, but she still took 22 percent in Washington state and 13 percent in Georgia.

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The Post’s Scott Clement and Lenny Bronner note the Georgia results are something of a mirage. The latest data show Haley got just 7 percent of Election Day voters, compared to 20 percent of early voters. The early vote was overwhelmingly conducted when Haley was still a candidate, beginning Feb. 19 and ending Friday. (Haley also got 28 percent of absentee voters, a much smaller share of the electorate.)

That said, regardless of when the votes came in, Haley continued to do disproportionately well in metro areas and the suburbs, which loom as a potential problem for Trump. She took around 40 percent in Atlanta-based Fulton and DeKalb counties. She also got 34 percent in Seattle-based King County.

As for Biden, he ceded 7.5 percent of the vote in Washington state to “uncommitted,” the option critics of his stance on the war in Gaza have pushed. That’s a smaller share than he previously ceded in Hawaii (29 percent), Minnesota (19 percent), Michigan (13 percent) and Colorado (9 percent).

Biden’s not-so-momentous post-State of the Union polls

On Friday, I noted that all the hype surrounding Biden’s State of the Union address wasn’t really borne out in an instant CNN poll.

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And now, more substantial polling would appear to confirm he got no real bump.

  • 33 percent of those who watched at least some of the speech said it improved their view of Biden, the Suffolk poll shows.
  • 28 percent said the opposite.
  • Independents were about evenly split.

Perhaps more troubling for Biden, a Yahoo/YouGov poll showed no real improvement on the issue many Biden supporters wagered he had mitigated with the speech: his age and mental acuity.

  • 29 percent said Biden was fit to serve another term, unchanged from January.
  • 51 percent said his age is a “big problem” that affects his fitness, unchanged from January.
  • 17 percent who watched said Biden seemed “not as old” as expected.

Such questions can get bogged down in polarization. But tellingly, the poll suggests Biden didn’t even gain with Democrats on these issues. And both polls showed virtually no change in his image numbers.

  • Trump’s freewheeling speeches offer a dark vision of a second term (Washington Post)
  • Trump takes control of the RNC with mass layoffs, restructuring (Washington Post)
  • How Donald Trump switched to defending TikTok (Washington Post)
  • Biden aims to repair places left broken by previous economic strategies (Washington Post)
  • Five takeaways from the Hur special counsel hearing (Washington Post)
  • The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same (New York Times)
  • Trump Courts Black Voters Even as He Traffics in Stereotypes (New York Times)



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Trial for murder at Catholic University stalls after detective charged with misconduct

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Trial for murder at Catholic University stalls after detective charged with misconduct


The murder trial of a man accused of killing a teacher on the campus of Catholic University in 2023 was supposed to start Wednesday. But that case has been thrown into turmoil after defense attorneys say the lead D.C. police detective was removed from the case and charged with misconduct.

New court documents reveal the detective is accused of having sex on the job and recording it on a police-issued cellphone.

In a hearing one of the supervisors admitted was highly unusual, the judge and the defense attorneys wanted to know why the U.S. Attorney’s office did not disclose until last week that the lead detective in the murder of 25-year old Maxwell Emerson was removed from the case just weeks after an arrest was made and placed under investigation for alleged misconduct.

In a motion filed Tuesday, the defense said, in part “The government withheld evidence that its lead detective, Detective Thomas Roy, had engaged in conduct so concerning that the Metropolitan Police Department proposed his termination, removed him as a lead detective, transferred him out of the homicide section and instituted a last chance agreement”.

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The defense attorneys wrote in their motion that Roy neglected his duties in Aug. 2022 “when he engaged in sexual intercourse with another homicide detective in his unit at her home while on duty and recorded two videos of their sexual encounter on an MPD issued cell phone.”

According to the motion filed by the defense, the detective was not placed under investigation until after Jaime Macedo was charged with the murder that occurred on catholic university campus back in July 2023.

News4 reported extensively on the case at the time. Police say Macedo is accused of following Emerson from the Brookland metro station on the morning of July 5. Surveillance video released by police show Emerson at one point walking with his hands raised in the air before the two ended up in a park near Alumni Lane.

Police say the two got into a struggle before Macedo is accused of shooting Emerson one time in the abdomen.

Emerson was a Kentucky teacher visiting D.C. for a conference at the Library of Congress Teacher Institute.

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In the motion filed by the defense, in which they argue the indictment should be dismissed, the attorneys cite an internal affairs document that says, “Detective Roy’s misconduct had cast a shadow over his credibility and reputation as a law enforcement officer.”

It’s unclear when this case may go to trial. The judge still must rule on the motion by the defense.
D.C. police say Roy was disciplined and lost his job in homicide but is still employed as a detective.



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FAA mandates radar separation for helicopters and planes after deadly DC midair collision

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FAA mandates radar separation for helicopters and planes after deadly DC midair collision


Air traffic controllers will use radar, not just visual checks, to ensure that helicopters maintain a safe distance from arriving and departing airplanes in the wake of last year’s fatal midair collision near Washington, D.C., federal officials announced Wednesday.

The Federal Aviation Administration said recent near-misses show that previous guidelines for pilots to maintain visual separation between helicopters and airplanes have failed to provide adequate protection around busy airports.

Under the new guidelines, air traffic controllers must use radar to keep helicopters and airplanes apart by specific lateral or vertical distances. The new requirement applies to more than 150 of the nation’s busiest airports, extending a restriction already put in place at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport.

“Today, we are proactively mitigating risks before they affect the traveling public,” FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said in a news release. “Following the mid-air collision near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA), we looked at similar operations across the national airspace. We identified an overreliance on pilot ‘see and avoid’ operations that contribute to safety events involving helicopters and airplanes.”

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Officials also specifically mentioned a Feb. 27 near-miss in which a police helicopter had to turn to avoid an American Airlines flight that was landing at San Antonio International Airport in Texas. A similar close call happened on March 2, when a helicopter had to turn away from a small aircraft that had been cleared to arrive at California’s Hollywood Burbank Airport, officials said.

The January 2025 collision between an American Airlines jet and an Army Black Hawk helicopter killed 67 people, making it the deadliest plane crash on U.S. soil since 2001. Among other factors contributing to the crash, investigators said controllers in the Reagan tower overly relied on asking pilots to spot aircraft and maintain visual separation.

The night of the crash, the controller approved the Black Hawk’s request to do that twice. However, investigators say the helicopter pilots likely never spotted the American Airlines plane as the jet circled to land on the little-used secondary runway.

Many of the people who died were young figure skaters and their parents and coaches who had just attended a development camp in Wichita, Kansas, after the U.S. Figure Skating Championships were held there.

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Washington faces Detroit on 6-game home skid

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Washington faces Detroit on 6-game home skid


Detroit Pistons (49-19, first in the Eastern Conference) vs. Washington Wizards (16-52, 14th in the Eastern Conference)

Washington; Thursday, 7 p.m. EDT

BOTTOM LINE: Washington takes on Detroit looking to end its six-game home losing streak.

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The Wizards are 11-32 against Eastern Conference opponents. Washington allows 123.8 points to opponents and has been outscored by 11.0 points per game.

The Pistons are 33-11 in conference games. Detroit ranks seventh in the Eastern Conference with 27.0 assists per game led by Cade Cunningham averaging 9.9.

The Wizards’ 13.0 made 3-pointers per game this season are only 0.3 more made shots on average than the 12.7 per game the Pistons give up. The Pistons average 11.0 made 3-pointers per game this season, 2.7 fewer made shots on average than the 13.7 per game the Wizards give up.

The teams meet for the fourth time this season. In the last matchup on March 17 the Pistons won 130-117 led by 36 points from Jalen Duren, while Bub Carrington scored 30 points for the Wizards.

TOP PERFORMERS: Carrington is averaging 10 points and 4.5 assists for the Wizards. Tre Johnson is averaging 1.9 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games.

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Duren is averaging 19 points and 10.6 rebounds for the Pistons. Cunningham is averaging 17.6 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 46.8% over the past 10 games.

LAST 10 GAMES: Wizards: 0-10, averaging 117.6 points, 38.1 rebounds, 23.8 assists, 6.8 steals and 4.6 blocks per game while shooting 48.2% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 129.5 points per game.

Pistons: 5-5, averaging 116.9 points, 44.1 rebounds, 28.3 assists, 9.4 steals and 6.0 blocks per game while shooting 48.7% from the field. Their opponents have averaged 110.9 points.

INJURIES: Wizards: Anthony Davis: out (finger), Cam Whitmore: out for season (shoulder), Alex Sarr: day to day (hamstring), Leaky Black: day to day (ankle), Kyshawn George: out (elbow), D’Angelo Russell: day to day (not injury related), Trae Young: day to day (quad), Bilal Coulibaly: day to day (heel).

Pistons: Cade Cunningham: day to day (back), Isaiah Stewart: out (calf).

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The Associated Press created this story using technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar.



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