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Washington
Analysis | 5 key X factors in the Biden vs. Trump rematch
And that means it’s time for a reset about what lies ahead. I think a good way to look at that is isolating a few key X factors that go a long way to determining who wins in November.
There is no question Democrats have lost ground with Black and Hispanic voters, especially among men; the question is how much — and whether it could be decisive.
Many polls show Trump with twice or even three times as much Black support as he got in 2016 (6 percent, according to Pew data) and 2020 (8 percent). If that actually happened — on top of Hispanics’ clear rightward shift in recent elections — it would significantly imperil Biden’s path to victory.
But you rarely see such a major, quick realignment in the American electorate. And there are reasons to be skeptical that’s what we’re about to see.
Still, it’s not just about whether Black or Hispanic voters support Trump; it’s also whether they intend to vote at all. Depressed turnout in the Democratic coalition could be Biden’s worst enemy.
Repeatedly in recent weeks, polling has shown Americans approve of Trump’s presidency more than they ever did when he was in office.
A case in point Wednesday was a USA Today/Suffolk University poll showing nearly half of registered voters did so. That’s despite then-President Trump’s approval rarely reaching beyond the low-40s and falling sharply in his closing days, after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection.
It’s normal for former presidents’ images to improve when they’re out of office. But that’s usually because they fade away and people forget what they disliked. There will be no fading away for Trump over the next eight months, as Democrats will do everything in their power to remind Americans why they disliked about him in the first place — with a potential assist from Trump’s court cases.
Related is just how much Americans have truly absorbed Trump’s increasingly authoritarian vision. Polling suggests they haven’t — not really. But that will surely change as Democrats seek to drive home Trump’s plans for his potential second term. He has, after all, talked about being a dictator for at least one day. Three-quarters of Republicans say that’s “probably” a good thing.
The question from there would become whether stuff like pardoning Jan. 6 defendants, demanding full presidential immunity and directly targeting his political foes for prosecution are deal-breakers for enough Americans.
But Americans already view Trump as extreme, and it’s not been a deal-breaker so far. A CNN poll last month showed that a full 63 percent of Americans labeled Trump “too extreme”; he still led Biden in a head-to-head matchup.
The White House and the Biden campaign suggest this is a media construct, but it’s something the electorate has been very concerned about for a long time. As many as one-quarter of Biden 2020 voters say he’s too old to serve effectively, and 19 percent say it means he’s “not capable of handling the job of president.”
Biden’s State of the Union address last week didn’t appear to allay concerns as much as the left would like (see below).
The real danger here is not so much that it causes Biden voters to flip to Trump, but that it leads them to stay home or vote third-party. Perhaps the specter of Trump will ultimately be enough for these voters to ultimately pull the lever for Biden, but it’s a very significant complicating factor when voters don’t believe you have what it takes to actually do the job.
This has clearly been Biden’s biggest policy liability. But Republicans gave Biden something to work last month with when they killed a bipartisan deal that could have significant shored up the border.
While early polling suggested Americans weren’t exactly clamoring for such a deal, a Wall Street Journal poll last week that described the legislation showed Americans supported it 59 percent to 34 percent.
Americans still strongly disapprove of Biden on immigration — about 2-to-1. And that poll showed they’re still more likely to blame the chaotic border on Biden’s reversal of Trump’s immigration executive orders (45 percent) than on the failure of the congressional deal (39 percent).
But that’s actually a pretty close margin. Given Americans have overwhelmingly favored the GOP on this issue, it suggests Biden could conceivably chip away at that advantage if he drives this issue home like he did in his State of the Union.
A moment for fading protest votes
As for the actual election results on Tuesday?
Nikki Haley’s vote shares fell a week after she dropped out of the race, but she still took 22 percent in Washington state and 13 percent in Georgia.
The Post’s Scott Clement and Lenny Bronner note the Georgia results are something of a mirage. The latest data show Haley got just 7 percent of Election Day voters, compared to 20 percent of early voters. The early vote was overwhelmingly conducted when Haley was still a candidate, beginning Feb. 19 and ending Friday. (Haley also got 28 percent of absentee voters, a much smaller share of the electorate.)
That said, regardless of when the votes came in, Haley continued to do disproportionately well in metro areas and the suburbs, which loom as a potential problem for Trump. She took around 40 percent in Atlanta-based Fulton and DeKalb counties. She also got 34 percent in Seattle-based King County.
As for Biden, he ceded 7.5 percent of the vote in Washington state to “uncommitted,” the option critics of his stance on the war in Gaza have pushed. That’s a smaller share than he previously ceded in Hawaii (29 percent), Minnesota (19 percent), Michigan (13 percent) and Colorado (9 percent).
Biden’s not-so-momentous post-State of the Union polls
On Friday, I noted that all the hype surrounding Biden’s State of the Union address wasn’t really borne out in an instant CNN poll.
And now, more substantial polling would appear to confirm he got no real bump.
- 33 percent of those who watched at least some of the speech said it improved their view of Biden, the Suffolk poll shows.
- 28 percent said the opposite.
- Independents were about evenly split.
Perhaps more troubling for Biden, a Yahoo/YouGov poll showed no real improvement on the issue many Biden supporters wagered he had mitigated with the speech: his age and mental acuity.
- 29 percent said Biden was fit to serve another term, unchanged from January.
- 51 percent said his age is a “big problem” that affects his fitness, unchanged from January.
- 17 percent who watched said Biden seemed “not as old” as expected.
Such questions can get bogged down in polarization. But tellingly, the poll suggests Biden didn’t even gain with Democrats on these issues. And both polls showed virtually no change in his image numbers.
- Trump’s freewheeling speeches offer a dark vision of a second term (Washington Post)
- Trump takes control of the RNC with mass layoffs, restructuring (Washington Post)
- How Donald Trump switched to defending TikTok (Washington Post)
- Biden aims to repair places left broken by previous economic strategies (Washington Post)
- Five takeaways from the Hur special counsel hearing (Washington Post)
- The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same (New York Times)
- Trump Courts Black Voters Even as He Traffics in Stereotypes (New York Times)
Washington
Washington Commanders announce 2026 training camp schedule
ASHBURN, Va. – The Washington Commanders have released their 2026 Training Camp schedule, with eleven open practices between August 1 and August 19, including five open to all fans and six reserved for season ticket members.
For the fifth straight year, training camp will take place at the team’s football operations headquarters in Ashburn, Virginia.
Open practices for all fans are scheduled for August 1, August 7, August 8, August 18 and August 19.
Season ticket member practices will be held August 3, 4, 5, 10, 11 and 12.
All sessions begin at 8:30 a.m., with gates opening at 7:30 a.m.
Fans can claim free tickets beginning June 23 at 10 a.m. General admission fans may request up to six tickets and one parking pass for a single day of camp. Season ticket members can claim tickets for two member‑exclusive days in addition to one general admission day. All parking will be on site at the BigBear.ai Performance Center and requires a parking pass.
The team plans several themed events throughout camp, including Back Together Weekend on August 1, Military Appreciation Day on August 7 and Kids Day on August 8. Local youth football and community groups will also be hosted throughout the summer.
For more information visit the Washington Commanders online.
The Source: Information in this article comes from the Washington Commanders.
Washington
Algae-filled Washington pool to be drained for repairs after US$14.7 million renovation
The Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Washington’s National Mall is set to be drained again for repairs after algae and peeling paint appeared just weeks after a US$14.7 million renovation, while President Donald Trump threatened prison time for anyone caught damaging the pool.
The DC Water authority issued a permit to drain the 609-metre rectangular pool, it said on Monday, while the repair company said it would fix the pool as part of its warranty.
Peeling paint and algae growth have been visible in the pool since soon after Trump declared the renovation project complete on June 6. Critics have raised concerns about the no-bid contract to recoat the pool before the nation’s 250th anniversary celebrations next month, as well as for the ducks that use its water. Workers from the National Park Service earlier this week poured hydrogen peroxide into the pool to combat the algae.
Trump, without evidence, has blamed vandals for the state of the landmark. On Monday, he echoed a weekend threat by US Attorney Jeanine Pirro to prosecute people accused of attempting to destroy the pool.
“Please remember that there is a 10-year prison sentence for the destruction, or even the attempted destruction, of such things – Which will be fully enforced!” Trump earlier wrote in a social media post. Destruction of federal property can carry a maximum prison sentence of 10 years.
It was not immediately apparent what criminal or civil violation someone might commit reaching into the pool.
Washington
Trae Young, Washington Wizards agree to new 4-year, $212M contract: Source
Half a year can be an eternity in the NBA.
Seven months ago, as Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks headed toward a divorce, Young’s value within the league had never been lower.
On Monday, Young and the Washington Wizards agreed to a new four-year, maximum-salary contract worth approximately $212.9 million, according to a league source. The fourth year of the contract will be a player option.
Young’s first-year salary is estimated to be $49.5 million, which amounts to 30 percent of the projected 2026-27 salary cap of $165 million. During the 2029-30 season, the final year of the contract, Young will earn $56.9 million if he accepts his player option.
Wizards officials would love it, of course, if Young can return to the form that made him an All-NBA Third Team player during the 2021-22 season. But at the very least, they place significant value on knowing that their team’s offense will start with him on most occasions, and that he will be around to shoulder a large portion of the scoring load while the team’s young players, who comprise the team’s long-term nucleus, continue to improve.
Wizards get the No. 1 draft pick. Will it make a difference?
David Aldridge
That Young will receive such large annual salaries no doubt will come as a shock to many observers, especially after Young’s reputation took a beating toward the end of his Hawks tenure. The NBA rumor mill, which is often inaccurate, predicted months ago that any new deal between Young and the Wizards would average no more than $40 million annually.
But in recent weeks, Wizards decision-makers became convinced that, with the NBA’s new anti-tanking measures compelling more teams to compete, Young was going to command maximum-salary contract offers from other franchises through either a straight free-agent signing or a sign-and-trade proposal.
Because the Wizards hold Young’s Bird rights, the Wizards had the latitude to offer Young up to a five-year contract with 8 percent annual raises. But Young’s new four-year deal instead features 5 percent year-over-year raises, the maximum year-over-year raise that any other team could have offered Young as a non-Bird free agent. For Washington, the difference between signing Young to 5 percent raises instead of 8 percent raises will amount to a total savings of $8.9 million over four years.
Wizards officials are not concerned that Young’s new contract will age poorly and prevent them from making future moves to improve their roster. Anthony Davis, who is due to earn $58.5 million in 2026-27, and Young are now Washington’s highest-paid players on its young roster, but the person with the third-largest salary is big man Alex Sarr, who will be paid the relatively small sum of $12.3 million this season. At the earliest, the Wizards do not expect to approach the dreaded first apron until the 2028-29 season, when any new rookie-scale contract extensions for Sarr and Kyshawn George would go into effect.
Plus, Wizards officials reason that Young, who will turn 28 years old in September, will remain in his prime years through the end of his contract. The onerous large contracts that age the worst — potentially Jimmy Butler’s current deal with the Golden State Warriors and Paul George’s current deal with the Philadelphia 76ers, for example — tend to be contracts in which players already are past their primes at the start of their contracts.
Young is by no means a perfect player. Undersized at 6 feet 1, and undeniably more focused on the offensive end of the floor, he tended to be a significant defensive liability throughout his Hawks tenure. That trend could worsen if he begins to lose a step (or two) over the next several years.
At the same time, though, Wizards officials have always known that their lineups would have to feature enough positional size and enough defensive-oriented players to compensate for Young’s shortcomings — in the same way that the defensive liabilities of LaMelo Ball, Jalen Brunson, Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving and Donovan Mitchell (and others) are compensated for by their respective teams.
The Wizards’ decision-makers believe Davis and youngsters Bilal Coulibaly, Davis, George, Sarr and whomever they pick first overall in Tuesday night’s draft will develop into strong enough defenders to help Young.
Young appeared in only five games for Washington last season after his trade from Atlanta for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert. That was a large enough sample size to demonstrate how his gravity and his passing skill could create open shots for his new teammates. George, Tre Johnson and others should receive more wide-open 3-point looks when Young directs the offense, and Sarr and Davis should feast on lobs from Young in pick-and-rolls.
Only 16 players in NBA history have averaged at least 20 points and 10 assists per game in the same season, according to Basketball Reference. Young is one of those players, and he has done it three times, during the 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons. The only other players who have had at least three seasons of at least 20 points and 10 assists per game are James Harden (four times), Kevin Johnson (three times), Magic Johnson (three times), Oscar Robertson (five times), Isiah Thomas (four times) and Russell Westbrook (five times).
The franchise expects Young to make Washington’s offense more efficient and, because opponents will have to take the ball out of their net more often, give Washington’s defense more opportunities to set itself.
July 6 is the first day when new free-agent contracts may be signed and made official.
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