Welcome to The Campaign Moment.
Washington
Analysis | 5 key X factors in the Biden vs. Trump rematch
And that means it’s time for a reset about what lies ahead. I think a good way to look at that is isolating a few key X factors that go a long way to determining who wins in November.
There is no question Democrats have lost ground with Black and Hispanic voters, especially among men; the question is how much — and whether it could be decisive.
Many polls show Trump with twice or even three times as much Black support as he got in 2016 (6 percent, according to Pew data) and 2020 (8 percent). If that actually happened — on top of Hispanics’ clear rightward shift in recent elections — it would significantly imperil Biden’s path to victory.
But you rarely see such a major, quick realignment in the American electorate. And there are reasons to be skeptical that’s what we’re about to see.
Still, it’s not just about whether Black or Hispanic voters support Trump; it’s also whether they intend to vote at all. Depressed turnout in the Democratic coalition could be Biden’s worst enemy.
Repeatedly in recent weeks, polling has shown Americans approve of Trump’s presidency more than they ever did when he was in office.
A case in point Wednesday was a USA Today/Suffolk University poll showing nearly half of registered voters did so. That’s despite then-President Trump’s approval rarely reaching beyond the low-40s and falling sharply in his closing days, after the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol insurrection.
It’s normal for former presidents’ images to improve when they’re out of office. But that’s usually because they fade away and people forget what they disliked. There will be no fading away for Trump over the next eight months, as Democrats will do everything in their power to remind Americans why they disliked about him in the first place — with a potential assist from Trump’s court cases.
Related is just how much Americans have truly absorbed Trump’s increasingly authoritarian vision. Polling suggests they haven’t — not really. But that will surely change as Democrats seek to drive home Trump’s plans for his potential second term. He has, after all, talked about being a dictator for at least one day. Three-quarters of Republicans say that’s “probably” a good thing.
The question from there would become whether stuff like pardoning Jan. 6 defendants, demanding full presidential immunity and directly targeting his political foes for prosecution are deal-breakers for enough Americans.
But Americans already view Trump as extreme, and it’s not been a deal-breaker so far. A CNN poll last month showed that a full 63 percent of Americans labeled Trump “too extreme”; he still led Biden in a head-to-head matchup.
The White House and the Biden campaign suggest this is a media construct, but it’s something the electorate has been very concerned about for a long time. As many as one-quarter of Biden 2020 voters say he’s too old to serve effectively, and 19 percent say it means he’s “not capable of handling the job of president.”
Biden’s State of the Union address last week didn’t appear to allay concerns as much as the left would like (see below).
The real danger here is not so much that it causes Biden voters to flip to Trump, but that it leads them to stay home or vote third-party. Perhaps the specter of Trump will ultimately be enough for these voters to ultimately pull the lever for Biden, but it’s a very significant complicating factor when voters don’t believe you have what it takes to actually do the job.
This has clearly been Biden’s biggest policy liability. But Republicans gave Biden something to work last month with when they killed a bipartisan deal that could have significant shored up the border.
While early polling suggested Americans weren’t exactly clamoring for such a deal, a Wall Street Journal poll last week that described the legislation showed Americans supported it 59 percent to 34 percent.
Americans still strongly disapprove of Biden on immigration — about 2-to-1. And that poll showed they’re still more likely to blame the chaotic border on Biden’s reversal of Trump’s immigration executive orders (45 percent) than on the failure of the congressional deal (39 percent).
But that’s actually a pretty close margin. Given Americans have overwhelmingly favored the GOP on this issue, it suggests Biden could conceivably chip away at that advantage if he drives this issue home like he did in his State of the Union.
A moment for fading protest votes
As for the actual election results on Tuesday?
Nikki Haley’s vote shares fell a week after she dropped out of the race, but she still took 22 percent in Washington state and 13 percent in Georgia.
The Post’s Scott Clement and Lenny Bronner note the Georgia results are something of a mirage. The latest data show Haley got just 7 percent of Election Day voters, compared to 20 percent of early voters. The early vote was overwhelmingly conducted when Haley was still a candidate, beginning Feb. 19 and ending Friday. (Haley also got 28 percent of absentee voters, a much smaller share of the electorate.)
That said, regardless of when the votes came in, Haley continued to do disproportionately well in metro areas and the suburbs, which loom as a potential problem for Trump. She took around 40 percent in Atlanta-based Fulton and DeKalb counties. She also got 34 percent in Seattle-based King County.
As for Biden, he ceded 7.5 percent of the vote in Washington state to “uncommitted,” the option critics of his stance on the war in Gaza have pushed. That’s a smaller share than he previously ceded in Hawaii (29 percent), Minnesota (19 percent), Michigan (13 percent) and Colorado (9 percent).
Biden’s not-so-momentous post-State of the Union polls
On Friday, I noted that all the hype surrounding Biden’s State of the Union address wasn’t really borne out in an instant CNN poll.
And now, more substantial polling would appear to confirm he got no real bump.
- 33 percent of those who watched at least some of the speech said it improved their view of Biden, the Suffolk poll shows.
- 28 percent said the opposite.
- Independents were about evenly split.
Perhaps more troubling for Biden, a Yahoo/YouGov poll showed no real improvement on the issue many Biden supporters wagered he had mitigated with the speech: his age and mental acuity.
- 29 percent said Biden was fit to serve another term, unchanged from January.
- 51 percent said his age is a “big problem” that affects his fitness, unchanged from January.
- 17 percent who watched said Biden seemed “not as old” as expected.
Such questions can get bogged down in polarization. But tellingly, the poll suggests Biden didn’t even gain with Democrats on these issues. And both polls showed virtually no change in his image numbers.
- Trump’s freewheeling speeches offer a dark vision of a second term (Washington Post)
- Trump takes control of the RNC with mass layoffs, restructuring (Washington Post)
- How Donald Trump switched to defending TikTok (Washington Post)
- Biden aims to repair places left broken by previous economic strategies (Washington Post)
- Five takeaways from the Hur special counsel hearing (Washington Post)
- The Biden-Trump Rerun: A Nation Craving Change Gets More of the Same (New York Times)
- Trump Courts Black Voters Even as He Traffics in Stereotypes (New York Times)
Washington
The Church of Jesus Christ has announced its 384th temple
The state of Washington is getting a seventh temple of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.
The Marysville Washington Temple was announced Sunday night during a devotional in the Marysville Washington Stake by Elder Hugo E. Martinez, a General Authority Seventy in the church’s United States West Area Presidency.
“We are pleased to announce the construction of a temple in Marysville, Washington,” the First Presidency said in a statement. “The specific location and timing of the construction will be announced later. This is a reason for all of us to rejoice and express gratitude for such a significant blessing — one that will allow more frequent access to the ordinances, covenants and power that can only be found in the house of the Lord.”
The other temples in Washington are the Columbia River, Moses Lake, Seattle, Spokane, Tacoma and Vancouver temples.
The church has 214 temples in operation. Plans for another 170 temples have been announced; many of those temples are in various stages of planning and construction.
Sunday’s temple announcement follows the new practice of the church’s First Presidency, which determines where temples will be built — and when and how they will be announced.
The First Presidency directed a General Authority Seventy to announce the first temple in Maine at a fireside there in December.
In January, church President Dallin H. Oaks said the Maine announcement set the pattern for future temple announcements.
“The best place to announce a temple is in that temple district,” he told the Deseret News.
The First Presidency will continue to decide where future temples will be built. It then will “assign someone else to make the announcement in the place where the temple will be built,” he said.
This pattern came to him as a strong impression after he assumed leadership of the church in October, following the death of his friend, President Russell M. Nelson.
This came as a strong impression to him shortly after he assumed the leadership of the church, President Oaks said.
The church remains in the midst of an aggressive temple-building era. President Nelson announced 200 new temples from 2018 to 2025. All but one were announced at general conference.
Five dozen temples are now under construction.
President Oaks now has overseen the announcement of two temples, neither at a general conference.
At the October conference he said that “with the large number of temples now in the very earliest phases of planning and construction, it is appropriate that we slow down the announcement of new temples.”
Ten new temples are scheduled to be dedicated in the next six months.
- May 3: Davao Philippines Temple.
- May 3: Lindon Utah Temple.
- May 31: Bacolod Philippines Temple.
- June 7: Yorba Linda California Temple.
- June 7: Willamette Valley Oregon Temple.
- Aug. 16: Belo Horizonte Brazil Temple.
- Aug. 16: Cleveland Ohio Temple.
- Aug. 30: Phnom Penh Cambodia Temple.
- Oct. 11: Miraflores Guatemala City Guatemala Temple.
- Oct. 18: Managua Nicaragua Temple.
Two-thirds of the 170 temples still to be built are outside the United States.
Temples are distinct from the meetinghouses where Latter-day Saints worship Jesus Christ each Sunday. Temples are closed on Sundays, but they open during the week as sanctuaries where church members go to find peace, make covenants with God and perform proxy ordinances for deceased relatives.
Washington
Washington football displays depth, talent at first spring scrimmage
On a perfect day in Seattle for football, Washington took the field inside Husky Stadium for its first scrimmage of spring practice, and ahead of his third season at the helm, Jedd Fisch seemed pleased with the results.
“Guys played and competed their ass off,” he said after the Huskies ran 120 plays. “That’s the type of day we want to have…We have a lot to work on, but we’re excited that today gave us this opportunity.”
The 120 plays had a little bit of everything, but the biggest thing the Huskies showed during the day was that, despite the inexperience that Fisch’s coaching staff is looking to lean on at several positions, there’s plenty of talent littering the roster. The best example of that is sophomore safety Paul Mencke Jr., who had his best practice in a Husky uniform after Fisch announced on Saturday that senior CJ Christian is out for the year after suffering a torn Achilles tendon during Tuesday’s practice at the Virginia Mason Athletic Center.
“Paul’s done a great job of competing and being physical and playing fast, and you could see over these three years, he’s really grown into understanding now the system, and what’s asked of him as a safety,” Fisch said. “I think there’s a lot of in him that he wants to be like (safeties coach Taylor) Mays. He sees himself as a tall, linear, big hitter. So when you have your coach that is known for that type of play, I think Paul has done a great job.”
Mencke was all over the field. Not only did he lay some big hits, just like his safeties coach did during his time at USC, but the former four-star recruit also tallied a pair of pass breakups, an interception in a 7-on-7 period, and multiple strong tackles to hold ball carriers to limited yards.
While the defense did a good job getting pressure throughout the day and making the quarterbacks hold the ball with different looks on the back end, with safety Alex McLaughlin, linebacker Donovan Robinson, and edge rusher Logan George all among the players credited for a sack, quarterback Demond Williams Jr. got an opportunity to show off how he’s improved ahead of his junior year.
Early on, he showed off his well-known speed and athleticism, making the correct decision on a read option, pulling the ball and scampering for a 25-yard gain before displaying his touch. Throughout the day, his favorite target was junior receiver Rashid Williams, whom he found on several layered throws of 15-plus yards in the various scrimmage periods of practice.
On a day when every able-bodied member of the team was able to get several reps of live action, here are some of the other noteworthy plays from the day.
Spring practice notebook
- Freshman cornerback Jeron Jones was unable to participate in the scrimmage and was spotted working off to the side with the rest of the players rehabbing their injuries.
- The running backs delivered a pair of big blows on the day. First, cornerback Emmanuel Karnley was on the receiving end of a big hit from redshirt freshman Quaid Carr before the former three-star recruit ripped off a 13-yard touchdown run on the next play. Later on, every player on offense had a lot of fun cheering on freshman Ansu Sanoe after he leveled Zaydrius Rainey-Sale, letting the sophomore linebacker hear all about it when the play was whistled dead.
- Sophomore wide receiver Justice Williams put together a strong day with several contested catches, showing off his strong hands and 6-foot-4 frame, including a 25-yard catch and run off a drag route from backup quarterback Elijah Brown.
- Of all the tackles for a loss the Huskies were able to rack up throughout the day, two stood out. First, junior defensive tackle Elinneus Davis burst through the middle of the line to wrap up freshman running back Brian Bonner. Later on, freshman outside linebacker Ramzak Fruean wasn’t even touched as he shot through a gap in the offensive line to track down a play from behind, letting the entire offensive sideline know about the play on his way back to his own bench.
- The Huskies experimented with several defensive line combinations on Saturday, and for the first time this spring, it felt like freshman Derek Colman-Brusa took the majority of his reps alongside someone other than Davis, who he said has taken on an older brother role to help mentor the top-ranked in-state prospect in the 2026 class.
“Elinneus is a phenomenal guy. Great work ethic. He’s kind of taken on that older brother mentor for me. He’s been a great help just to learn plays and learn the scheme. Can’t say enough good things about the guy.”
- Ball State transfer Darin Conley took a handful of reps with the first team, while rotating with Colman-Brusa, who got a lot of work in alongside Sacramento State transfer DeSean Watts.
Washington
Sioux Falls art teachers show ‘incredible’ work at Washington Pavilion
Twenty Sioux Falls School District art teachers have their own original pieces on display at the Washington Pavilion’s University Gallery now through May 31.
The “Teachers as Artists” exhibit showcases their work not just as educators, but as artists inside and outside of the classroom, and highlights how art education builds critical thinking, creative problem-solving and self-expression skills.
Edison Middle School art teacher Meagan Turbak-Fogarty said she dreamt of such a showcase since her first year teaching.
She and Kathy Dang, an art teacher at Marcella LeBeau Elementary School who also serves on the city’s Visual Arts Committee, partnered with the city and Washington Pavilion to bring the showcase to life.
Turbak-Fogarty has taught at Edison for five years and said her passion for art is “instantly felt” on her classroom walls, but that students have asked where they could see her art in the classroom, or what kind of art she creates in her own time.
“I always felt the feeling that I stand in front of all these kids every single day and preach about how much I love art, and how art has changed my life,” Turbak-Fogarty said. “That got me thinking, ‘I want to show them.’”
Some of her works on display at the Pavilion include art she created in her first year teaching, including a large Cheetos bag she created as an example for her eighth grade classroom when they were working on a large chip bag project. Turbak-Fogarty said she loves painting, working with acrylics and unconventional materials.
“I wanted to show my students that art can be anything,” she said. “It doesn’t have to be hanging up in a museum to be considered art.”
Continuing to do her own art while teaching the subject helps keep her inspired, Turbak-Fogarty explained, adding that it helps her push her own creativity when it comes to projects she works on with students.
Samantha Levisay, an art teacher at John Harris Elementary School, showed three pieces in the show — “Moments in Time,” “Midnight Butterfly Garden” and “Whimsy” — with the same mixed media, watercolor and printmaking skills that she teaches in different units at every elementary grade.
Levisay educates her students that “art is everywhere.” She said her favorite memories as an art teacher are “moments when I show students a lesson, and they take it even further.”
“Kids are so creative; I marvel at them all the time,” she said. “They inspire me every day with their endless creativity and imagination.”
Roosevelt High School art teacher Ruth Hillman showed two pieces in the show: “The Potato on the Wall,” a mixed media work, and a collection of her handmade clay charms in a shadow box.
She also wore some of her art — miniature potato earrings made of clay.
Hillman is in her third year at RHS. When she’s not teaching art, she’s also making art, and sells her charms at shows like the Art Collective.
Washington High School art teacher Mollie Potter displayed a three-part painting series at the show that she said were inspired by her English language learner students’ stories, and how teachers help students “take flight,” as represented by balloons, parachutes and kites in her work.
Porter said she is often inspired by her students’ art in the classroom; for example, one former student was obsessed with swans, and Porter said she later created a painting inspired by one of the student’s stories about swans.
At an April 17 reception, Mayor Paul TenHaken emphasized the arts as an “important economic driver in the community,” and said the show honored educators “who are artists in and of themselves,” but who might not have had a chance to display their art outside the classroom before.
“This is a way for us to honor them and show their incredible work,” TenHaken said.
-
New Mexico5 minutes agoLos Alamos Public Schools Students Compete At 2026 New Mexico State Science & Engineering Fair
-
North Carolina11 minutes ago
NC Lottery Pick 3 Day, Pick 3 Evening results for April 19, 2026
-
North Dakota17 minutes agoWindy conditions fuel shop fire in rural Mapleton
-
Ohio23 minutes agoWanda Lou Bailey, Louisville, Ohio
-
Oklahoma29 minutes agoCord Rager’s Return, Consistent Hitting Earns Oklahoma First SEC Sweep of Missouri
-
Oregon35 minutes agoSmall Oregon town residents’ trust shaken as state sues disaster nonprofit founder
-
Pennsylvania41 minutes agoMother, 6 children die in Central Pennsylvania house explosion, state police say
-
Rhode Island47 minutes agoThe Real Housewives of Rhode Island Recap: Wrong Side of the Tracks