Since January 6, roughly 2,000 ICE agents have been deployed to Minnesota under the pretext of responding to a fraud investigation. In practice, these largely untrained and undisciplined federal agents have been terrorizing Minneapolis residents through illegal and excessive uses of force – often against US citizens – prompting a federal judge to attempt to place limits on the agency’s actions. The Trump administration is encouraging the lawlessness by announcing “absolute immunity” for ICE agents. But if the secretary of homeland security, Kristi Noem, does not heed the court ruling, the consequences may be nothing short of civil war.

In just the past week, ICE agents shot and killed Renee Good, a 37-year-old mother of three, shortly after she returned from dropping her child off at school. They blinded two protesters by shooting them in the face with so-called “less deadly” weapons. They fired teargas bombs around the car of a family carrying six children, sending one child to the emergency room with breathing problems. They violently dragged a woman out of her car and on to the ground screaming. They have shot protesters in the legs. They have forcibly taken thousands of individuals to detention facilities, separating families and casting people into legal limbo – often without regard to their legal status.

Rather than investigate this conduct and the officer who shot Renee Good, the justice department has opened a criminal investigation into the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, and Minneapolis mayor, Jacob Frey, accusing them of conspiring to impede federal agents. Renee Good’s widow is also under investigation, a move that prompted six US attorneys in Minnesota to resign in protest.

As public outrage grows, ICE has escalated its actions, increasingly engaging in what appear to be random acts of violence regardless of immigration status. Governor Walz has placed the Minnesota national guard on standby to support local law enforcement, while Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act – an extraordinary move that would grant him sweeping domestic military powers and potentially sidestep recent supreme court limits on the use of federal troops in law enforcement. One thousand additional ICE agents have been sent to Minnesota, suggesting that Trump is essentially using ICE as a specialized paramilitary force to target protesters and suppress dissent. And the Pentagon has readied the army’s 11th Airborne Division – roughly 1,500 active-duty soldiers – to back up the president’s threat.

This scenario closely mirrors one explored in an October 2024 tabletop exercise conducted by the Center for Ethics and the Rule of Law (CERL), which I direct, at the University of Pennsylvania. In that exercise, a president carried out a highly unpopular law-enforcement operation in Philadelphia and attempted to federalize the Pennsylvania’s national guard. When the governor resisted and the guard remained loyal to the state, the president deployed active-duty troops, resulting in an armed conflict between state and federal forces. While the location and sequence differ, the core danger we identified is now emerging: a violent confrontation between state and federal military forces in a major American city.

While our hypothetical scenario picked a different city and a slightly different sequence of events, the conclusions we reached about the possibility of green-on-green violence are directly applicable to the current situation. First, none of the participants – many of them senior former military and government officials – considered the scenario unrealistic, especially after the supreme court’s decision in Trump v United States, which granted the president criminal immunity for official acts.

Second, we concluded that in a fast-moving emergency of this magnitude, courts would probably be unable or unwilling to intervene in time, leaving state officials without meaningful judicial relief. State officials might file emergency motions to enjoin the use of federal troops, but judges would either fail to respond quickly enough or decline to rule on what they view as a “political question”, leaving the conflict unresolved. This is why Judge Menendez’s ruling is so critical: it may be the last opportunity a federal judge has to intervene before matters spiral completely out of control.

Third, we warned that senior military leaders could face orders to use force not only against state national guard units, but against unarmed civilians – and that they must be prepared to assess the legality of such orders. Any domestic deployment of federal troops must comply with the Department of Defense’s Rules for the Use of Force and with the constitution, including the Bill of Rights. Even under the Insurrection Act, federal troops may not lawfully shoot protesters unless they are literally defending their lives against an imminent threat – yet such conduct is already happening in Minneapolis at the hands of federal agents.

Finally, it is not legal for federal troops to back up ICE agents who are behaving illegally.

Every member of the US military has sworn an oath to defend the constitution. That oath carries legal force. Service members are not only permitted but obligated to refuse patently illegal orders.

That obligation is now under pressure. Senator Mark Kelly is under investigation by the Pentagon for publicly reminding service members in a video he made with five other members of Congress that they may – and in some cases must – refuse illegal orders. But they were essentially correct: troops must refuse to carry out patently illegal orders.

For members of the 11th Airborne Division, this may soon cease to be a theoretical question. Minnesota may be the first test of whether constitutional limits on domestic military force still hold – or whether the United States is about to cross a line from which it cannot easily return.

Federal agents stopped an off-duty officer in Brooklyn Park, Minnesota, stopped her from recording the interaction and drew their guns, a local police chief said.

Immigration agents stopped off-duty officers in Minnesota “solely because of the color of their skin,” a group of local police chiefs alleged, as concern grows over the ongoing immigration enforcement in the state.

American citizens are being stopped “on the streets with no cause and being forced to produce paperwork to determine if they are here legally,” said Mark Bruley, chief of the Brooklyn Park Police Department, which operates in a suburb north of Minneapolis.

He added that police officers “fell victim to this while off duty” and that the stops appear to “target” people of color.

In one encounter, a Brooklyn Park police officer was boxed in by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents who “demanded her paperwork,” Bruley said.

Labor unions, community leaders and faith groups are calling for an economic blackout in Minnesota on Friday to protest the surge of federal immigration agents in the state and mourn Renee Good.

Organizers are urging Minnesotans not to work, shop or go to school. The Trump administration has dispatched some 3,000 federal agents to the state, in what it claims amounts to its largest enforcement operation thus far, amid a broader crackdown on immigration.

More than 2,400 people in Minnesota have been arrested in recent weeks. An Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officer fatally shot Good, 37, in Minneapolis earlier this month.

“There is an unprecedented and outrageous attack being waged against the people of Minnesota. I have never seen anything like it in my life,” said Kieran Knutson, the president of Communications Workers of America (CWA) Local 7250 in Minneapolis. “This is just an outrageous acceleration and escalation of violence toward working-class people.”

The CWA, which represents workers in the state at companies including AT&T, Activision and DirecTV, is one of several local unions organizing and supporting the planned economic blackout.

Others include Unite Here Local 17, Saint Paul Federation of Educators and Minneapolis Federation of Educators Local 59.

Chelsie Glaubitz Gabiou, the president of the Minneapolis Regional Labor Federation, AFL-CIO, said: “Working people, our schools and our communities are under attack. Union members are being detained commuting to and from work, tearing apart families. Parents are being forced to stay home, students held out of school, fearing for their lives, all while the employer class remains silent.”

“I think what generated the idea for this action comes out of the need to figure out what we can meaningfully do to stop it,” said Knutson. “The government in the state of Minnesota has not offered any path towards stopping these attacks, this violence.”

Knutson expressed hope that “the CEOs of all these corporations that are based in Minnesota take notice”.

Large US corporations headquartered in Minnesota include Target, Best Buy, United Healthcare and General Mills. None immediately returned requests for comment.

As the administration continues to send ICE agents to the Minnesota region, Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey has complained in recent days that the city’s police are outmanned and outgunned.

“Can our cops arrest them? From a legal perspective, yes,” he said during an interview on the Bulwark podcast. “From a practical perspective, to state the reality, it does get kind of hard when they drastically outnumber us, and they have bigger guns than we do. We don’t want to create warfare in the street.”

A blackout by workers can send a message, Knutson said. “Those of us in the trade union movement understand the leverage and power that our labor has, and we are going to try and use that, because really there’s nothing else left,” he told the Guardian. “The idea is that we use our collective power to show those that rule this country and those that profit off of our labor that there’s a cost to attacking our communities this way.”

Organizers held a press conference last Tuesday, outside of the Hennepin county government center in Minneapolis, to announce that the event, which will also include a march and rally in the city’s downtown at 2pm local time.

“On Friday, January 23, we are calling for a day of truth and freedom,” said JaNaé Bates Imari, a minister and co-executive director of the multi-faith non-profit Isaiah. “It is a day where every single Minnesotan who loves this state and this notion of truth and freedom will refuse to work, to shop, and to go to school. What we have experienced and are experiencing in the state of Minnesota is not normal.”

The White House did not respond to multiple requests for comment on the planned economic blackout.

A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said: “The fact that those groups want to shut down Minnesota’s economy, which provides law-abiding American citizens an honest living, to fight for illegal alien murderers, rapists, gang members, pedophiles, drug dealers, and terrorists says everything you need to know.”

The spokesperson reiterated the administration’s claim that Good “weaponized” her car before the shooting. This account of the incident has been disputed by local and state leaders in Minnesota, as well as by eyewitnesses. Video footage of the shooting appears to show Good’s vehicle turning away from the officer as he opened fire.

The DHS spokesperson added that “if these community and faith leaders wanted to take a stand for the vulnerable”, they would stand with federal law enforcement officers, whom the spokesperson claimed have faced a sharp increase in assaults and vehicle attacks. They did not provide evidence for this allegation.

“These men and women are moms and dads who risk their lives on a daily basis to protect innocent, law-abiding Americans from the dangerous criminal illegal aliens in their communities,” the spokesperson added.

Under the Trump administration, thousands of people targeted by ICE have no criminal record, and numerous US citizens have also been detained.