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What’s South Africa’s new school language law and why is it controversial?

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What’s South Africa’s new school language law and why is it controversial?

A new education law in South Africa is dividing lawmakers and sparking angry emotions in a country with a complex racial and linguistic history.

Last Friday, President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the Basic Education Laws Amendment (BELA) bill into law but suspended the implementation of two hotly contested sections for at least three months for further consultations among opposing government factions.

Authorities insist that the law will make education more equitable. Stark economic inequalities in South Africa have contributed to lower literacy and post-school opportunities for the country’s Black majority. By 2022, even though 34.7 percent of Black teenagers had completed secondary school – up from 9.4 percent in 1996 – only 9.3 percent of Black people had a tertiary education. By comparison, 39.8 percent of the white population had a tertiary education.

“The law that we are signing today further opens the doors of learning. It lays a firm foundation for learning from an early age … It will ensure young children are better prepared for formal schooling,” Ramaphosa said during the signing event in Pretoria.

But critics of the law, mainly from the Afrikaans-speaking community, argue that clauses strengthening the government’s oversight over school language and admission policies would threaten mother-tongue education.

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Here’s what to know about BELA and why some groups disagree with parts of the law:

What’s BELA and why is it controversial?

The new amendment modifies older school laws in the country: the South African Schools Act of 1996 and the Employment of Educators Act of 1998.

It includes new provisions, such as a ban on corporal punishment for children, jail terms for parents who fail to send their children to school, compulsory grade levels for children starting school, and increased scrutiny for homeschooling.

However, Sections 4 and 5, which regulate languages of instruction in school, and school admission policies, are causing upheaval among Afrikaans-speaking minority groups.

The clauses allow schools to develop and choose their languages of instruction out of South Africa’s 11 official languages, as well as their admissions policy. However, it also gives the National Department of Basic Education the final authority, allowing it to override any decisions. Until now, school boards had the highest authority on languages and admissions.

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Authorities in the past have cited how some schools exclude children, especially from Black communities, based on their inability to speak Afrikaans as one reason for the policy update.

Following South Africa’s break from apartheid, Black parents were allowed to send their children to better-funded, previously white-only schools where Afrikaans was often the main instruction language.

Some Black parents, however, claimed their wards were denied placements because they did not speak Afrikaans. Accusations of racism in school placements continue to be an issue: in January 2023, scores of Black parents protested in front of the Laerskool Danie Malan, a school in Pretoria that largely uses Afrikaans and Setswana (another official African language), claiming their children were denied for “racist” reasons. However, the school authorities rejected the claim, and other Black parents confirmed to local media that their children attended the institution.

Members of the South African Teachers Union, the African National Congress, and the Congress of South African Students march against the language and admission policies at a majority Afrikaans-speaking school they claimed were discriminatory in 2018 [File: Gulshan Khan/AFP]

Why are some Afrikaans speakers upset over BELA?

Some Afrikaans speakers say the new law threatens their language and, by extension, their culture and identity. Afrikaans-speaking schools also accuse the authorities of pressuring them to instruct in English.

Afrikaans is a mixture of Dutch vernacular, German and native Khoisan languages, which developed in the 18th century. It is predominantly spoken in South Africa by about 13 percent of the 100 million population. They include people from the multiracial “coloured” community (50 percent) and white descendants of Dutch settlers (40 percent).

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Some Black people (9 percent) and South African Indians (1 percent) also speak Afrikaans, particularly those who lived through apartheid South Africa, when the language was more widely used in business and schools. It is more commonly spoken in the Northern and Western Cape provinces.

Of a total of 23,719 public schools, 2,484 — more than 10 percent — use Afrikaans as their sole or second language of instruction, while the vast majority teach in English. Some Afrikaans speakers argue that giving locally elected officials more power to determine a school’s language will politicise the matter and could lead to fewer schools teaching in Afrikaans. Many also fault the section of the law that allows government officials to override admissions policy.

“There is only a government of national disunity,” one commenter posted on the website of the South African newspaper Daily Maverick on Friday about the divisions within the coalition Government of National Unity (GNU) that have emerged amid the language row.

“By opting to destroy Afrikaans and Afrikaans schools and universities, the ANC and Cyril are making a mockery of unity. This is what happens if the provincial department can unilaterally control the admission of learners and language mediums at schools,” the commenter said, referring to Ramaphosa and his party, the African National Congress (ANC).

Last week, Agriculture Minister John Steenhuisen, who is the leader of the Democratic Alliance (DA), the second-largest party in the GNU, condemned the government’s decision to move ahead with the bill despite reservations among the ANC’s coalition partners.

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The politician, who is Afrikaner, also threatened a tit-for-tat response if the law is eventually signed as is.

“The DA will have to consider all of our options on the way forward … Any leader who tries to ride roughshod over their partners will pay the price – because a time will come when the shoe is on the other foot, and they will need the understanding of those same partners in turn,” he said.

Education Minister Siviwe Garube, a Black member of the DA, did not attend the signing ceremony in Pretoria in a show of defiance.

Youth day
Children at the Hector Pieterson Memorial in Soweto observe the iconic image taken by photographer Sam Nzima on June 16, 1976, when apartheid police shot dead Black schoolchildren protesting against Afrikaans as a medium of instruction in their schools [File: Themba Hadebe/AP Photo]

What is the history of school language controversies in South Africa?

Afrikaans is historically emotive in South Africa, dating back to British colonial rule.

To some, Afrikaans represents self-determination, but to many more, particularly in the Black community, it evokes memories of the brutal days of segregation and apartheid.

Originally, Afrikaans was regarded as an unsophisticated version of Standard Dutch. It was called “kitchen Dutch”, referencing the enslaved Cape populations who spoke it in the kitchen and to their settler masters. In the late 1800s, after the first and second Boer wars that saw Dutch settlers or “Boers” fight their British colonists and win independence, Afrikaans came to be regarded as a language of freedom for the white population. In 1925, it was adopted as an official language.

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During the apartheid years, however, Afrikaans became synonymous with oppression for the majority Black population which faced the worst forms of subjugation under the system. Some scholars note (PDF) that the apartheid government uprooted Black families from urban areas to destitute self-governed “Bantustans” (homelands) partly based on their inability to speak the two official languages at the time, Afrikaans and English.

Most Black schools in South Africa at the time taught in English, as it was regarded as the language for Black emancipation. However, the government attempted to impose both English and Afrikaans as compulsory medium languages in schools starting from 1961.

That move ignited a series of student protests in June 1976 in the majority-Black community of Soweto, where the policy was meant to be implemented first. Between 176 and 700 people were killed when apartheid security forces used deadly force on schoolchildren in what is now known as the Soweto Uprising.

Apartheid authorities rescinded the language policy in July 1976. When Black schools were allowed to choose their medium of education, more than 90 percent opted for English. None chose the other African languages, such as Xhosa or Zulu, which the apartheid government had also pushed: it was seen as a measure to promote tribalism and divide the Black community. In addition to those, the country’s other official languages are Sepedi, Sesotho, Setswana, Siswati, Tshivenda, Xitsonga and Ndebele.

What’s next?

Authorities say the different arms of government will debate Sections 4 and 5 for the next three months. However, barring a resolution, the law will fully be implemented as is, President Ramaphosa said.

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Meanwhile, Afrikaner rights groups such as the AfriForum, have declared they will contest the decision in court. The group has been described as having “racist” leanings, although it denies this.

“Afrikaans has already been eroded in the country’s public universities in a similar way,” Alana Bailey, AfriForum’s cultural affairs head, said in a statement last week.

“The shrinking number of schools that still use Afrikaans as a language of instruction now is the next target. AfriForum is therefore preparing for both national and international legal action to oppose this,” she added.

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How strong are Latin America’s military forces, as they face US threats?

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How strong are Latin America’s military forces, as they face US threats?

Over the weekend, the United States carried out a large-scale military strike against Venezuela and abducted President Nicolas Maduro in a major escalation that sent shockwaves across Latin America.

On Monday morning, US President Donald Trump doubled down, threatening action against the governments of Colombia, Cuba and Mexico unless they “get their act together”, claiming he is countering drug trafficking and securing US interests in the Western Hemisphere.

The remarks revive deep tensions over US interference in Latin America. Many of the governments targeted by Trump have little appetite for Washington’s involvement, but their armed forces lack the capacity to keep the US at arm’s length.

US President Donald Trump issues warnings to Colombia, Cuba and Mexico while speaking to reporters on Air Force One while returning from his Florida estate to Washington, DC, on January 4, 2026 [Jonathan Ernst/Reuters]

Latin America’s military capabilities

The US has the strongest military in the world and spends more on its military than the total budgets of the next 10 largest military spenders combined. In 2025, the US defence budget was $895bn, roughly 3.1 percent of its gross domestic product.

According to the 2025 Global Firepower rankings, Brazil has the most powerful military in Latin America and is ranked 11th globally.

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Mexico ranks 32nd globally, Colombia 46th, Venezuela 50th and Cuba 67th. All of these countries are significantly below the US military in all metrics, including the number of active personnel, military aircraft, combat tanks, naval assets and their military budgets.

In a standard war involving tanks, planes and naval power, the US maintains overwhelming superiority.

The only notable metric that these countries have over the US is their paramilitary forces, which operate alongside the regular armed forces, often using asymmetrical warfare and unconventional tactics against conventional military strategies.

INTERACTIVE - Latin America military capabilities - JAN6, 2026-1767695033
(Al Jazeera)

Paramilitaries across Latin America

Several Latin American countries have long histories of paramilitary and irregular armed groups that have often played a role in the internal security of these countries. These groups are typically armed, organised and politically influential but operate outside the regular military chain of command.

Cuba has the world’s third largest paramilitary force, made up of more than 1.14 million members, as reported by Global Firepower. These groups include state-controlled militias and neighbourhood defence committees. The largest of these, the Territorial Troops Militia, serves as a civilian reserve aimed at assisting the regular army against external threats or during internal crises.

In Venezuela, members of pro-government armed civilian groups known as “colectivos” have been accused of enforcing political control and intimidating opponents. Although not formally part of the armed forces, they are widely seen as operating with state tolerance or support, particularly during periods of unrest under Maduro.

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In Colombia, right-wing paramilitary groups emerged in the 1980s to fight left-wing rebels. Although officially demobilised in the mid-2000s, many later re-emerged as criminal or neo-paramilitary organisations, remaining active in rural areas. The earliest groups were organised with the involvement of the Colombian military following guidance from US counterinsurgency advisers during the Cold War.

In Mexico, heavily armed drug cartels function as de facto paramilitary forces. Groups such as the Zetas, originally formed by former soldiers, possess military-grade weapons and exercise territorial control, often outgunning local police and challenging the state’s authority. The Mexican military has increasingly been deployed in law enforcement roles in response.

History of US interference in Latin America

Over the past two centuries, the US has repeatedly interfered in Latin America.

In the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the so-called Banana Wars saw US forces deployed across Central America to protect corporate interests.

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In 1934, President Franklin D Roosevelt introduced the “Good Neighbor Policy”, pledging nonintervention.

Yet during the Cold War, the US financed operations to overthrow elected governments, often coordinated by the CIA, founded in 1947.

Panama is the only Latin American country the US has formally invaded, which occurred in 1989 under President George HW Bush. “Operation Just Cause” ostensibly was aimed at removing President Manuel Noriega, who was later convicted of drug trafficking and other offences.

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Sportico Top 100: NFL Again Towers Over U.S. Media in 2025

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Sportico Top 100: NFL Again Towers Over U.S. Media in 2025

Imagine, if you will, a scenario in which the newly crowned NFL sack king Myles Garrett is tasked with teaching the Muppets about the fundamentals of football, and you’re maybe about a quarter of the way toward appreciating the league’s almost cartoonish dominance over what remains of the American monoculture. Picture the 6’ 4”, 272-pound collection of fast-twitch muscle fibers bearing down on Dr. Bunsen Honeydew and his eternally harried lab assistant, Beaker, in a hands-on demonstration of the ouchiest branch of Newtonian physics—MEEP!—and you’ve got yourself an analogy that’s been all done up in distressed felt and crushed ping pong balls.

It ends badly for all of Kermit’s showbiz pals. A blindside hit reduces Fozzie Bear to a muddied scrap of area rug, while whatever’s left of Miss Piggy will get hosed off Garrett’s cleats and redirected to the Wilson plant in Ada, Ohio. Up in the balcony, even Statler and Waldorf have stopped cracking wise. Scooter had a family!

If entertainment fare has long been shut out of the annual list of America’s biggest TV and TV-adjacent events—the last time a scripted show found a toehold among the top 100 was in 2019, when the series finale of The Big Bang Theory scared up 18.5 million viewers—the NFL also has made short work of much of its sports competition. Having accounted for 83 of the most-watched transmissions in 2025, the Shield put up its second-best numbers on the books, trailing only its run from two years ago, when it nearly ran the table with 93 entries. (A surging college game helped put this year’s football tally at an even 90 entries.)

For all that, the real hero of the 2025 list may well be Nielsen. As much as the NFL kicked off the season by suggesting that the audience for such tentpole events as the Super Bowl and the Thanksgiving Day slate have been undercounted, an upgrade of the company’s methodology—especially as it pertains to an expanded out-of-home sample—has gone a long way toward putting such concerns on pause. (Executives have been complaining about Nielsen practically since it began its 75-year reign as the currency czar, but no pretender yet has managed to supplant it as the underwriter of the $70 billion-and-change TV ad market.)

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On the day the jaw-dropping ratings for the Thanksgiving games were released, NFL EVP of media distribution Hans Schroeder gave Nielsen props for beefing up its OOH scrutiny, noting that the efforts to track these impressions in all U.S. TV markets helped “capture the viewership in a more accurate way.” CBS’ Chiefs-Cowboys broadcast averaged 57.23 million viewers, smashing the previous regular-season record by 36%. Strip away all the holiday co-viewing that took place across the nation and CBS’ Tryptophan Bowl turnout would have been closer to 35 million.

And while TV execs rarely make an effort to shout out Nielsen, Fox’s Mike Mulvihill wasn’t stinting in his praise. “Nielsen takes a lot of criticism in this business, but you have to give them credit for the fact that through their rollout of out-of-home measurement, the scorekeeping in this business has finally caught up to the reality,” Fox Sports’ president of insights and analytics told reporters during the post-Turkey Day media scrum. “Sports does have [the power] to bring us together and facilitate shared experience, and the numbers finally reflect the reality that’s been in place for many, many years, and it’s a welcome change.”

The impact of the new method of counting the house is perhaps best appreciated by looking back to the 2023 list. While last year’s top 100 was a bit of an outlier, thanks to a frenzied presidential election cycle, the 2023 tally is particularly instructive when you start digging into the back portion. The cutoff for our latest list was 17.39 million viewers, whereas the count from two years ago halted at 15.03 million viewers. Transpose the 2023 data with the current chart and the bottom quarter drops off into the void. In other words, the new-look Nielsen has helped recapture a sufficient volume of impressions that 27 of the broadcasts that made the cut two years ago wouldn’t have been eligible for inclusion in today’s ranking.

If the Nielsen data should go a long way toward ensuring that the NFL will continue to maintain most, if not all, of its legacy TV partnerships—during the post-Thanksgiving huddle, Schroeder made a point of crediting “the power … and reach of broadcast TV” for doing a lot of the heavy lifting—the streaming giants are an increasingly invasive species. Events that were exclusive to streaming platforms accounted for eight of the 100 items on the list, up from three in 2024, and nearly all the trad TV broadcasts were enhanced by a non-linear simulcast. (Peacock and other digital outlets now account for 11% of NBC’s Sunday Night Football deliveries, up from 5% just a few years ago.)

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For all that, an argument can be made for the exclusion of at least one streaming event, as the stateside audience for Netflix’s presentation of the Sept. 13 Canelo Alvarez-Terence Crawford bout was determined without any input from Nielsen. Netflix’s self-reported deliveries are derived via a sort of mysterious alchemy, as the company’s results are a function of the marriage of its own in-house figures and estimates from VideoAmp. As there’s no way to audit these results, the Netflix numbers radiate a heady “trust me, bro” vibe. That said, gatekeeping kept last month’s mandible-shattering Jake Paul fiasco off the list, as Netflix declined to break out the fight’s U.S.-only numbers.

Drop the unverifiable boxing deliveries, and the NFL has bragging rights to 84 of the top 100 events on the list. That quibble aside, sports all but gobbled up the entire chart, as 95 of the items on the list were devoted to football, baseball, basketball, horseracing and boxing. Political events and news programming ran off with 16 of the top spots in 2024, but in the absence of a collar-grabbing quadrennial circus, only three Beltway spectacles carved out space on this year’s chart. The other two non-sports entries were NBC’s presentation of the 99th installment of Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade and ABC/Hulu’s staging of the Oscars.

As far as individual results are concerned, the humbled Kansas City Chiefs grabbed 18 spots on the 2025 list, eclipsing their dynasty-disrupting foes the Philadelphia Eagles (14) and the ever-popular Dallas Cowboys (13). Among the networks, Fox earned top marks with 26 appearances, edging NBC (23) and CBS (22), while Disney siblings ESPN and ABC combined to take 19 of the top slots. The NFL, meanwhile, drummed up 19 of the year’s 20 biggest audiences and 46 of the top 50.

Lastly, Major League Baseball staged a welcome return to the upper reaches of the list, as the final frame of Fox’s epic Dodgers-Blue Jays Fall Classic claimed the No. 25 slot. The power of a World Series Game 7 is hard to overstate, even when one of the teams involved has no stateside representation; by comparison, the 2024 Yankees-Dodgers showdown topped off at No. 84 with 18.15 million viewers. A seventh broadcast featuring the reps of the two largest media markets likely would have crashed the top 10, but New York’s farcical fifth-inning meltdown in Game 5 robbed Fox of a potential ratings bonanza.

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As for the big-time sporting events that failed to secure a berth in 2025, the NBA Finals fell short despite drawing 16.61 million viewers with Game 7, leaving the league out of the winner’s circle for the sixth straight year. Women’s college basketball failed to repeat its top 100 performance of a year ago, although the men’s game returned to the fold care of CBS’ coverage of the Florida-Houston title tilt. The Kentucky Derby also stormed back onto the list after a three-year layoff, as nearly 18 million people in funny hats (including 959,000 streamers) cheered on Sovereignty’s muddy victory, a turnout enhanced by Nielsen’s OOH upgrade.

Lastly, 2025 saw a rare loss for a Super Bowl lead-out, as Fox’s broadcast of the Season 3 premiere of the Rob Lowe-helmed game show The Floor served up a record-low 13.94 million viewers, this despite the 127.71 million sets of eyeballs that were in place during Philly’s big win over KC. While nothing will ever unseat NBC’s remarkable 1996 showing—the one-hour episode of Friends that aired immediately after Super Bowl XXX notched a now-unthinkable 52.93 million viewers—as the keeper of the Muppets flame, ABC could put up some big numbers in 2027 if they were to give Kermit & Co. the coveted post-Super Bowl LXI slot.

Throw a rampaging Myles Garrett into the mix, and ABC might even have a shot at beating its most recent Super Sunday mark, a special installment of Grey’s Anatomy that drew 37.8 million viewers in 2006 after the Steelers topped the Seahawks in Detroit. Bear in mind that Pittsburgh’s victory “only” delivered 90.75 million viewers; given the new Nielsen currency and the league’s unwavering expansionist tendencies, we’ll likely never again see an NFL championship game dip below the 100 million mark.

For anyone out there still trying to compete with the NFL for the hearts and minds of the American consumer, the only valid response to the league’s latest showing can be summed up in a single interjection: MEEP!

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After Maduro, Venezuela power vacuum exposes brutal insiders and enforcers

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After Maduro, Venezuela power vacuum exposes brutal insiders and enforcers

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As Venezuela enters the post-Nicolas Maduro era, former officials and regional experts warn the country may be facing not a democratic transition, but a period of deeper instability and internal conflict between possible successors that some warn could be even worse than Maduro.

Marshall Billingslea, the former assistant secretary for terrorist financing and financial crimes in the U.S. Treasury Department, said Maduro’s removal has exposed a fractured system that was never held together by a single strongman, but by competing criminal power centers now moving independently.

“The cartel has always been a loose association, with each of the mafia bosses having their own centers of gravity,” Billingslea said. “Maduro was the frontman, but he didn’t exercise total control. Now we’re seeing each of those centers spinning off on their own.”

MADURO’S SON GIVES ‘UNCONDITIONAL SUPPORT’ TO NEWLY SWORN IN INTERIM VENEZUELA PRESIDENT

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U.S. State Department “wanted” posters show Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López (left) and senior regime figure Diosdado Cabello, both accused by U.S. authorities of corruption and links to drug trafficking networks. (U.S. State Department )

Billingslea said the capture of Cilia Flores, Maduro’s wife, was as consequential as Maduro’s removal itself.

“The capture of Cilia Flores is a particularly big deal because she was the brains behind the operation and the one who cleared out potential rivals,” he said. “Her removal is equally significant.”

TRUMP ISSUES DIRECT WARNING TO VENEZUELA’S NEW LEADER DELCY RODRÍGUEZ FOLLOWING MADURO CAPTURE

Billingslea outlined what he described as five competing power centers, four within the regime and one outside it. “The removal of Maduro, and particularly the removal of Cilia Flores, leaves a huge power vacuum in the cartel,” he said. “We haven’t yet reached a new equilibrium here.”

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In the interim, he foresees a high risk of internal power struggles, violence and further repression as rival factions maneuver to secure control in a post-Maduro Venezuela. But he notes that the Trump administration anticipates this and is executing a clear-eyed strategy to first secure U.S. core interests, followed by the gradual restoration of democracy, all without needing American “boots on the ground.”

TRUMP VOWS US ‘IN CHARGE’ OF VENEZUELA AS HE REVEALS IF HE’S SPOKEN TO DELCY RODRÍGUEZ

Delcy Rodríguez takes over, but power remains contested

Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s longtime vice president, was quickly installed as interim leader. But her rise has done little to reassure Venezuelans or international observers that meaningful change is coming.

Rodríguez is deeply embedded in the Maduro system and has long played a central role in overseeing Venezuela’s internal intelligence and security apparatus. According to regional reporting, her focus since taking office has been consolidating control within those institutions rather than signaling political reform.

Former U.S. and regional officials say Delcy Rodríguez’s rise has revived long-standing questions about who truly influences her decisions as she moves to consolidate power.

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Venezuela’s Vice President Delcy Rodriguez addresses the media in Caracas, Venezuela, on March 10, 2025.  (Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters)

Those officials point to Rodríguez’s deep ties with Cuban intelligence, which helped build and operate Venezuela’s internal security and surveillance apparatus over the past two decades. Cuban operatives played a central role in shaping how the regime monitored dissent and protected senior leadership, embedding themselves inside Venezuela’s intelligence services.

At the same time, former officials say Rodríguez appears to be testing cooperation with Washington, creating uncertainty over how much leverage the United States actually holds. Some view her limited engagement with U.S. demands as tactical, aimed at buying time while she works to secure loyalty inside the regime and neutralize rival factions.

A former Venezuelan official previously told Fox News Digital that Rodríguez “hates the West” and represents continuity with the Maduro regime, not a break from it.

KRISTI NOEM DELIVERS TRUMP’S ULTIMATUM TO VENEZUELA’S VICE PRESIDENT FOLLOWING MADURO CAPTURE OPERATION

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A U.S. State Department “wanted” poster for senior Venezuelan regime figure Diosdado Cabello Rondon, whom U.S. authorities have accused of ties to narcotics trafficking and narco-terrorism (U.S. State Department )

Cabello mobilizes loyalists

Diosdado Cabello, one of the most feared figures in the country, has emerged as a central player in the post-Maduro scramble for control.

Cabello, who wields influence over the ruling party and interior security, has been rallying armed colectivos and loyalist groups. Those groups have been active in the streets, detaining opponents and reinforcing regime authority through intimidation.

Sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for corruption and alleged ties to drug-trafficking networks, Cabello is widely viewed as a figure capable of consolidating power through force rather than institutions.

Jorge Rodríguez holds the levers of control

Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly and brother of Delcy Rodríguez, remains one of the regime’s most important political operators.

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Rodríguez has served as a key strategist for Maduro, overseeing communications, elections and internal coordination. Recent reporting indicates he continues to work closely with his sister to maintain control over intelligence and security structures, reinforcing the regime’s grip despite Maduro’s removal.

Experts say Rodríguez could play a central role in shaping any managed transition that preserves the system Maduro built.

TRUMP’S VENEZUELA STRIKE SPARKS CONSTITUTIONAL CLASH AS MADURO IS HAULED INTO US

U.S. State Department “wanted” posters show Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López accused by U.S. authorities of conspiracy to distribute cocaine on board an aircraft registered in the U.S.

Padrino López

Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López, long considered the backbone of Maduro’s survival, remains a critical figure as well.

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While Padrino López has not publicly positioned himself as a successor, analysts note that the armed forces are no longer unified behind a single leader. Senior generals are split across competing factions, raising the risk of internal clashes or a shift toward overt military rule if civilian authority weakens further.

Beyond the power struggle among regime elites, Venezuela faces a broader danger.

Large parts of the country are already influenced by criminal syndicates and armed groups. As centralized authority weakens, those actors could exploit the vacuum, expanding control over territory and smuggling routes.

Experts warned that an uncontrolled collapse could unleash forces more violent and less predictable than Maduro’s centralized repression, and the events unfolding now suggest that risk is growing.

Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado waves a national flag during a protest called by the opposition on the eve of the presidential inauguration, in Caracas on Jan. 9, 2025. (Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images)

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Outside the regime, opposition leader María Corina Machado remains the most popular political figure among Venezuelan voters. But popularity alone may not be enough to translate into power.

Machado lacks control over security forces, intelligence agencies or armed groups. As repression intensifies and rival factions maneuver, her ability to convert public support into political authority remains uncertain.

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Police patrol in La Guaira, Venezuela, Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that President Nicolás Maduro had been captured and flown out of the country. (AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)

Maduro’s fall, analysts say, did not dismantle Venezuela’s power structure. It fractured it.

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With armed loyalists in the streets, rival factions competing behind the scenes, and an interim leader struggling to assert authority, Venezuela now faces a dangerous period in which the aftermath of Maduro’s rule could prove more chaotic — and potentially more brutal — than what came before, experts say. For Venezuelans, the question is no longer whether Maduro is gone, but whether anything that replaces him will be better.

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