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Very cold weather is coming. US about to get 10th and chilliest polar vortex this winter

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Very cold weather is coming. US about to get 10th and chilliest polar vortex this winter

The coldest burst of Arctic air this season is coming to put an icy exclamation point on America’s winter of repeated polar vortex invasions, meteorologists warn. And it will stay frozen there all next week.

Different weather forces in the Arctic are combining to push the chilly air that usually stays near the North Pole not just into the United States, but also Europe, several meteorologists tell The Associated Press.

This will be the 10th time this winter that the polar vortex — which keeps the coldest of Arctic air penned in at the top of the world — stretches like a rubber band to send some of that big chill south, said Judah Cohen, seasonal forecast director at the private firm Atmospheric and Environmental Research. In a normal winter, it happens maybe two or three times.

Ray King fishes for trout during a steady snowfall at the lake in O’Fallon Park in St. Louis, Mo., Feb. 12, 2025. (Robert Cohen/St. Louis Post-Dispatch via AP, File)

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This winter, with record snow in New Orleans and drought and destructive wildfires in Southern California, has not been normal.

The latest projected cold outbreak should first hit the northern Rockies and northern Plains Saturday and then stick around all next week. The cold will likely concentrate east of the Rockies with only the far American west and central and southern Florida exempted, meteorologists said.

On Tuesday, expect the Lower 48 states to have an average low of 16.6 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 8.6 Celsius), and then plunge to 14 degrees (minus 10 Celsius) on Wednesday, calculated private meteorologist Ryan Maue, a former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration chief scientist.

Meteorologists expect strong winds to make the cold feel even worse. Every U.S. state but Hawaii, California and Florida have some or all parts forecast to have a good chance of windchills of 20 degrees or below sometime next week, the National Weather Service predicted.

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Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri and Iowa will have “probably the most impressive” cold, with temperatures as much as 35 degrees (19 degrees Celsius) below what’s normal for this time of year, said Zack Taylor, a meteorologist at the weather service’s Weather Prediction Center. NOAA weather models predict Wednesday lows below zero in Oklahoma, Colorado, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Some storms — with flooding, heavy snow or even a nor’easter — could hit during next week’s prolonged cold outbreak, but details on those aren’t certain yet, Taylor said.

“Everything, all the stars align, all the wind directions in the atmosphere are dragging the cold polar air out of the Canadian Arctic,” Maue said. “It’s the depths of winter. Everything signals extreme biting, winter cold. Obviously this isn’t the first polar vortex episode of the winter, but it looks to be the most severe.”

Natalie Burke pulls some kids on a sled during a snowfall, Feb. 12, 2025, in Shorewood, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash, File)

Natalie Burke pulls some kids on a sled during a snowfall, Feb. 12, 2025, in Shorewood, Wis. (AP Photo/Morry Gash, File)

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A stretched polar vortex like this one happens lower in the atmosphere and is different than when the polar vortex has sudden warming, weakens and all the cold air escapes south and out of the poles, Cohen said. During stretching events, the polar vortex remains in place and strong, but it also just pulls and bends. Stretch outbreaks are usually slightly milder than the big polar escape events and often hit the United States, not Europe.

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Meteorologists are going to want to study why this stretching is happening so often this year, but it could just be natural randomness, said Laura Ciasto, a meteorologist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center who specializes in the polar vortex.

“What we’re observing right now is interesting, but not unprecedented,” said Martin Stendel, a scientist at the National Center for Climate Research in Denmark.

Another factor adding to the polar vortex stretching is a big blob of high pressure in the upper atmosphere over Greenland. It’s moving west and will push the jet stream — the river of air that moves weather systems such as storms — into a pattern that causes polar air to plunge and stay there, Cohen said.

Human-caused climate change may be making the jet stream wavier and more likely to be stuck in that wavy pattern, one of the factors involved, Stendel said.

There haven’t been many winters like this in the past to help meteorologists forecast what will happen next and when the cold will finally go away, Maue said.

Despite the unusually cold winter across the U.S., the world remains in an overall warming pattern. Earth’s average overall temperature set yet another monthly heat record in January. It was the 18th month of the last 19 that the world hit or passed the internationally agreed upon warming limit of 1.5 C (2.7 F) above pre-industrial times.

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Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

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Follow Seth Borenstein on X at @borenbears

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The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org.

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Map: 7.5-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes the South Pacific Ocean

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Map: 7.5-Magnitude Earthquake Shakes the South Pacific Ocean

Note: Map shows the area with a shake intensity of 4 or greater, which U.S.G.S. defines as “light,” though the earthquake may be felt outside the areas shown.  All times on the map are Eastern. The New York Times

A major, 7.5-magnitude earthquake struck in the South Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, according to the United States Geological Survey.

The temblor happened at 12:37 a.m. Eastern about 103 miles west of Neiafu, Tonga, data from the agency shows.

U.S.G.S. data earlier reported that the magnitude was 7.6.

As seismologists review available data, they may revise the earthquake’s reported magnitude. Additional information collected about the earthquake may also prompt U.S.G.S. scientists to update the shake-severity map.

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Aftershocks in the region

An aftershock is usually a smaller earthquake that follows a larger one in the same general area. Aftershocks are typically minor adjustments along the portion of a fault that slipped at the time of the initial earthquake.

Quakes and aftershocks within 100 miles

Aftershocks can occur days, weeks or even years after the first earthquake. These events can be of equal or larger magnitude to the initial earthquake, and they can continue to affect already damaged locations.

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When quakes and aftershocks occurred

Source: United States Geological Survey | Notes: Shaking categories are based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When aftershock data is available, the corresponding maps and charts include earthquakes within 100 miles and seven days of the initial quake. All times above are Eastern. Shake data is as of Tuesday, March 24 at 1:37 a.m. Eastern. Aftershocks data is as of Tuesday, March 24 at 2:50 a.m. Eastern.

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Iran conflict tests Pakistan amid own border clashes as Islamabad touted as venue for US-Tehran talks

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Iran conflict tests Pakistan amid own border clashes as Islamabad touted as venue for US-Tehran talks

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Pakistan is walking a tightrope as the Iran war intensifies, with that balance growing more precarious with each passing day.

Islamabad has so far pursued cautious diplomacy, condemning the strikes on Iran, while simultaneously urging de-escalation. But analysts warn it cannot remain insulated from competing pressures.

“Pakistan is putting itself forward as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran, but unconvincingly,” Edmund Fitton-Brown, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies told Fox News Digital. “Its own record of staying out of military entanglements is unimpressive.”

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At the forefront of the tensions is a new defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, which states that aggression against one will be treated as a threat to both. Widely seen as one of Pakistan’s most consequential defense agreements, it commits the country to Riyadh, while risking confrontation with Iran.

Shia Muslims holding portraits of Iran’s slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei take part in an anti US-Israel protest in Islamabad on March 6, 2026.  (Aamir Qureshi/ AFP via Getty Images)

Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim state, already has troops stationed in Saudi Arabia for training and defense support and has said there is “no question” of coming to the kingdom’s aid.

“Remember, Pakistan is geographically part of both South Asia and Central Asia, as well as the wider Gulf/MENA region too. Pakistan has always pursued peace, dialogue and order because we know what war does to our region,” Mosharraf Zaidi, spokesperson for foreign media to the Pakistani prime minister, told Fox News Digital.

Within days of the war’s outbreak, the country’s army chief, General Asim Munir, made an “emergency” visit to Saudi Arabia, where top officials discussed joint responses to Iranian strikes. It was the first true test of the pact.

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Relations are strong between the two nations, and Riyadh remains a key economic lifeline for Islamabad. Saudi Arabia has already been making arrangements to support energy supplies, as war-driven fuel disruptions hit import-dependent Pakistan.

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Yet Pakistan’s relationship with Iran is equally critical. 

The two share a 565-mile border along with deep trade ties and significant religious connections. 

Pakistan is home to the world’s second-largest Shiite community after Iran. Pro-Iran regime protests in the wake of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination turned deadly, forcing military intervention and curfews.

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Maintaining ties with Tehran is crucial for containing domestic tensions and staving off an insurgency from the minority Baloch community there.

Iran is also an important economic partner to Pakistan, which has been facing a severe economic crisis. The two conduct significant trade, with a new goal of $10 billion by 2028.

Pakistan’s foreign minister has held “constant conversations” with his Iranian counterpart throughout the conflict. And last week, a Pakistani oil tanker transited the essentially blockaded Strait of Hormuz. Analysts noted it was the first non-Iranian cargo ship to do so since tensions escalated, suggesting that safe passage may have been negotiated. Officials add that more Pakistan-bound oil tankers are likely to cross the strait in the coming days.

A screenshot of a marine traffic terminal showing vessels in the Strait of Hormuz on March 4, 2026. (Kpler/Marine Traffic)

Most of Pakistan’s crude and LNG imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But as the war grinds on, analysts warn Pakistan’s room for neutrality is shrinking. 

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Pakistan recently went against Iran, backing a Gulf-led resolution at the United Nations condemning regional aggression. Russia and China abstained.

Meanwhile, Iran’s foreign minister just called for regional coordination in separate ​calls with Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt.

Shia Muslims holding portraits of Iran’s slain supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei take part in an anti US-Israel protest in Islamabad on March 6, 2026.  (Aamir Qureshi/ AFP via Getty Images)

At the same time, Islamabad must also navigate relations with Washington, yet another key partner.

Under President Donald Trump’s second term, Pakistan has sought closer relations with the U.S., even floating his name for the Nobel Peace Prize.

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Questions are also emerging in Washington. During a White House briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration was coordinating with the Pentagon to assess whether Pakistan is supporting Iran, while describing India as a “good actor.”

India’s positioning has added further pressure, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Israel.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu in New Delhi, India on Feb. 25, 2026. (Photo by Press Information Bureau (PIB)/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“There is no contradiction in being absolutely committed to peace, dialogue and order. The strong relationships Pakistan has with the United States, with Saudi Arabia, with Iran and with China are a testament to Pakistan’s commitment,” the Pakistani prime minister’s spokesperson, Zaidi said.

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So far, Pakistan has effectively positioned itself at the forefront of mediation efforts to end the ongoing conflict, leveraging its ties with all three powerhouses.

Reports indicate that high-level talks between the U.S. and Iran are set for Islamabad as early as this weekend.

“Pakistan wants to matter to the U.S. and to be a better partner than India. Because the Afghan Taliban have alienated Islamabad since 2021, there are few remaining sore points between the U.S. and Pakistan, with the latter able to present as an ally against terrorism,” Fitton-Brown said. “And most regional parties want to see the crisis end sooner rather than later. But nobody wants to see the Islamic Republic strengthened in Iran.”

The spiraling war comes at a critical time for Pakistan’s already stretched military. Tensions with India remain elevated, while border clashes, airstrikes, drone attacks and rising civilian casualties have become the norm with once friendly neighbor Afghanistan.

The nations nosedived into an “all-out war,” just days before the Iran conflict broke out, and the violence shows no signs of easing after fresh Pakistani strikes recently hit the Afghan capital city of Kabul.

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Afghan Taliban fighters patrol near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border in Spin Boldak, Kandahar Province, following exchanges of fire between Pakistani and Afghan forces. (REUTERS/Stringer/File Photo)

“This geography and the region’s history is why Pakistan steadfastly rejects India’s efforts at regional hegemony, it is why Pakistan is pursuing a termination of the Afghan Taliban regime’s support for terrorist groups,” Zaidi said. “We seek a complete cessation of terrorism emanating from territory currently controlled by the Afghan Taliban.”

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With Pakistan already managing tensions on both its eastern border with India and its western frontier with Afghanistan, a destabilized Iran could push that strain further.

“If Islamabad is destabilized, it will be extremely bad news regionally and globally,” Edmund Fitton-Brown told Fox. “The idea of a nuclear power under jihadi rule doesn’t bear thinking about.”

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Von der Leyen clinches Australia trade deal

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Von der Leyen clinches Australia trade deal

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday sealed a free-trade agreement with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, slashing tariffs on most EU goods and farm exports.

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The deal marks another win for Brussels as it races to diversify trade ties and lock in strategic partners amid rising global tensions.

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The pact will save the EU €1 billion a year in duties, the Commission said, with exports projected to climb as much as 33% over the next decade.

Agriculture proved a flashpoint, with EU farmers already pushing back against the Mercosur trade agreement and a legal challenge from MEPs threatening ratification.

Tariffs will eventually fall to zero on products including cheese (over three years), wine, some fruit and vegetables, chocolate and processed foods.

On the toughest issues — beef and sheep, which sank talks in 2023 — Australia agreed to quotas of 30,600 and 25,000 tonnes a year, respectively.

A safeguard mechanism will allow the EU to shield sensitive sectors if a surge in Australian imports harms the bloc’s market.

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Beyond agriculture, the agreement opens access to Australia’s critical raw materials, including aluminium, lithium and manganese.

Brussels also failed to scrap Australia’s luxury car tax. Instead, 75% of EU electric vehicles will be exempt.

The deal is a geostrategic push

The Commission expects strong export gains in key sectors, including dairy (up to 48%), motor vehicles (52%) and chemicals (20%).

Brussels has prioritized the deal as it builds partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, where China’s influence has become central. A security and defence partnership with Canberra was also announced Tuesday.

“The EU and Australia may be geographically far apart but we couldn’t be closer in terms of how we see the world,” von der Leyen said, adding: “With these dynamic new partnerships on security and defence, as well as trade, we are moving even closer together.”

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Since Donald Trump returned to power in 2025, trade agreements have taken on sharper geostrategic weight for the EU as it seeks new markets.

In 2025, Brussels struck deals with Mexico, Switzerland and Indonesia. The Mercosur pact was also signed earlier this year and will be provisionally applied from 1 May despite a European Parliament legal challenge.

More could follow. Talks are ongoing with the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, and countries in Eastern and Southern Africa, von der Leyen told EU ambassadors on 9 March.

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