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Ukraine is pushing for EU membership. But what are the real chances?

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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has a transparent message for the European Union: Ukraine needs in.

“Do show that you’re with us. Do show that you’ll not allow us to go. Do show that you’re certainly Europeans,” the president, carrying army apparel, instructed the European Parliament on Tuesday afternoon.

Yesterday, Zelenskyy had signed an official utility asking for EU membership, a step that any European county is allowed to provoke by itself. Upping the ante, Zelenskyy requested a fast-tracked process to make sure his nation joins the bloc as quickly as feasibly attainable.

The transfer from Kyiv follows feedback made by Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Fee, throughout an interview with Euronews, the place she appeared to endorse Ukraine’s bid.

“They belong to us. They’re one among us and we wish them in,” von der Leyen.

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An amazing majority of MEPs additionally backed the thought with a non-binding decision, demanding Ukraine obtain candidate standing according to the EU treaties and a “merit-based” strategy.

“I believe there are moments in time the place you want have the braveness to take nice strides forward, and in the event you have a look at earlier enlargements it was at all times a political determination that needed to do with safety, with freedom,” stated Sophie in ‘t Veld, a Dutch MEP whose liberal occasion has proposed to welcome Zelenskyy’s occasion.

However the path to hitch the bloc is all the pieces however easy.

How do you be part of the EU?

In reality, the so-called accession course of is a posh, arduous and costly enterprise that drags out over a number of years, even a long time, and requires an distinctive dedication from the candidate nation, which is requested to implement a prolonged catalogue of reforms to adjust to EU norms.

Most significantly, the entire course of rests on the political will of the 27 member states. Even when the Fee is the one main the negotiations and conducting the groundwork, it’s as much as the capitals to inexperienced mild each step of the street – by unanimity.

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The necessity for consensus has proved to be a recurrent impediment for enlargement. Bulgaria is presently blocking accession talks with North Macedonia – and, by extension, with Albania – as a result of a longstanding dispute involving historic and linguistic grievances.

In the meantime, the opposite three official candidates – Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey – stay caught in a negotiation limbo with no breakthrough in sight. Within the case of Ankara, the beginning date goes again all the way in which to 1987.

The stalemate displays the low political urge for food for widening the bloc, with consideration principally targeted on inner squabbles associated to the democratic backsliding of some member states.

However given its unprecedented nature, may Russia’s invasion give an additional impetus to Kyiv’s nice expectations?

What now?

The EU’s accession course of is designed to totally align the candidate nation with the bloc’s democratic, financial and social requirements.

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The process is break up into 4 important steps: utility, candidacy, negotiations, and accession.

The primary one, utility, has already taken place after Zelenskyy’s signature. The Fee is anticipated to look at the request and publish a advice, both supporting or rejecting the bid.

The Council can then approve Ukraine’s utility by unanimity, whereas the Parliament must give its consent with a easy majority.

If all of the votes are in favour, Ukraine can be formally thought of a candidate to hitch the EU.

After that, the Fee will give you a framework for negotiations, which additionally must be unanimously endorsed by the 27. Ukraine will probably be requested to start reforms earlier than discussions happen.

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The Fee’s mandate is then used to information the accession talks, that are divided in 35 chapters grouped in six important clusters: fundamentals; inner markets; competitiveness and inclusive development; inexperienced agenda and sustainable connectivity; sources, agriculture and cohesion; and exterior relations.

The method is strictly linear: every chapter opens solely after the earlier is unquestionably closed. Fundamentals, which covers points similar to justice, human rights and public establishments, is the the primary chapter to be opened and likewise the final to be closed, underlining the significance the EU offers to core democratic values.

This emphasis on democracy may pose a significant roadblock for Ukraine’s European path. The nation scores poorly in worldwide indexes: Freedom Home calls it “partly free” whereas the Economist describes it as a “hybrid regime.” Reporters With out Borders says oligarchs’ grip on the media continues to be too “tight.”

“After the [Maidan] revolution in Ukraine, the nation is actually on a pro-democratic and pro-European path. Nevertheless, its democracy continues to be fragile and the rule of regulation continues to be not enforced correctly,” says Jana Juzová, a analysis fellow at EUROPEUM, an unbiased think-tank targeted on European integration.

“By way of democracy, Ukraine is scoring equally and even worse because the Western Balkan international locations. Corruption, functioning and independence of judiciary, and weak democratic establishments are nonetheless among the many most problematic points.”

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For Juzová, the truth that Ukraine doesn’t exert full management over its personal territory – Crimea was illegally annexed by Russia and the Donbas has two separatist provinces – may additional complicate issues.

“The candidates for EU membership will need to have clearly outlined and consolidated borders, territorial integrity,” the researcher instructed Euronews.

“The EU accession course of is by definition purported to be very strict,” she added. “I wouldn’t be too optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects of becoming a member of the EU anytime quickly.”

‘Accession would not occur in a single day’

The principle goal of tortuous negotiations is to deliver the candidate nation as shut as attainable to all EU guidelines, legislations and political buildings.

The Copenhagen standards, established in 1993, are the prime reference all through the entire course of. For instance: a rustic that needs to hitch the bloc should have the ability to “deal with the aggressive stress and market forces” throughout the EU’s single market.

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As soon as discussions round all 35 chapters come to an finish, an accession treaty is drafted. The textual content must be unanimously ratified by the Council and all nationwide parliaments of every member state (decrease and excessive chambers), in addition to by a majority vote within the European Parliament.

On common, profitable negotiations take between 4 and 5 years to finish.

Austria, Finland and Sweden accomplished the duty below two years, whereas Croatia, the final nation to hitch the EU, wanted virtually eight. The pace is set by each the tempo of the candidate’s reforms and by Council’s political curiosity in closing and opening new chapters.

“This isn’t one thing that may occur in a single day. It’s going to take time each due to the present sensible challenges and priorities confronting the EU,” Corina Stratulat, a senior coverage analyst on the Brussels-based European Coverage Centre (EPC), tells Euronews.

“Entrance to the EU is a course of, not an occasion. Based mostly on what we all know to date, this implies time, persistence and a substantial amount of preparation on each side.”

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Stratulat doubts Ukraine is anyplace “shut” to fulfilling the Copenhagen standards and is significantly involved concerning the political dangers inherent in a fast-tracked accession process, an unheard-of choice.

“You’ll be able to have a sooner course of if there may be political will. Nevertheless, if the method stays as it’s now – that’s, advanced and rigorous –, a sooner accession would require all member states to shortly approve all tens of selections related to a rustic,” she says.

“This has not been the case in recent times, even for steps that had been symbolic, like granting candidate standing to an applicant. And there may be additionally the query of how would a fast-track accession for Ukraine be perceived within the Balkan international locations, which have been ready for a very long time and have additionally seen battle and dangers of Russian affect.”

All eyes on the capitals

Declaring Ukraine an official EU candidate within the midst of Russia’s invasion could possibly be seen as a robust proof of dedication and help for a rustic below siege. However its precise energy could possibly be restricted to the realm of political symbolism.

For Ukraine to hitch the bloc within the timeframe requested by Zelenskyy, the entire accession course of must be simplified and overhauled, growing the dangers of a subpar, rushed process that results in water-downed requirements and a sketchy adaptation of EU guidelines.

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In the intervening time, the one specific endorsement has come from a coalition of Japanese European states fashioned by Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. In a plea just like the parliament’s decision, the group requires steps to “instantly grant Ukraine an EU candidate standing.”

Doing so would open Ukraine’s door for the Instrument for Pre-Accession Help (IPA), a monetary programme that helps candidate international locations perform the political, institutional, social and financial reforms wanted to face the advanced negotiations.

IPA’s finances for the interval 2021-2027 is €14.2 billion and is being distributed amongst Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey.

From the Western facet, no downright rejection has been voiced as a result of extraordinarily delicate circumstances and a widely-shared respect for the determine of Zelenskyy, seen as a battle hero.

However in latest days, officers from France, Germany, Spain and the Netherlands have expressed warning, arguing that membership just isn’t the suitable option to handle the current battle.

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Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez stated in an interview with RTVE that accession was a “lengthy” course of with “necessities and reforms” to be met, whereas Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte instructed the nationwide parliament that the subject was “not a great dialogue” to have proper now.

“We’re not going to assist Ukraine that means,” Rutte stated.

Welcoming a brand new member state into the 27-strong membership will inevitably alter the stability of energy within the establishments and tilt the consensus additional eastward.

Extra components like Ukraine’s demographic dimension – over 41 million residents, geographical location – an enormous border shared with Russia – and relative poverty – its GDP per capita is the second-lowest in Europe after Moldova –, are set to weigh closely within the pondering of the capitals.

One other concern looming over leaders is likely to be Article 42 of the EU treaties, which imposes an obligation of “support and help by all means” if some other member state is a “sufferer of an armed aggression.”

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NATO, which has an identical provision of collective defence and shares 21 members with the bloc, has repeatedly stated it won’t deploy any troops inside Ukraine to combat the Russian military nor assist implement a no-fly zone over the nation.

In latest feedback, Charles Michel, president of the European Council, the very best authority the place EU leaders meet to determine the bloc’s political orientation, provided additional insights on how the 27 really feel about Ukraine’s passionate bid.

“Membership is a long-standing request from Ukraine,” stated Michel.

“However there are totally different opinions and sensitivities throughout the EU on enlargement.”

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Tunisian lawyers defiant as government cracks down on all voices

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Tunisian lawyers defiant as government cracks down on all voices

Tunis, Tunisia – Hundreds of black-clad lawyers filled the narrow Boulevard Ben Bnet outside Tunis’s bar association headquarters as they protested the arrests of two of their own.

Thursday was the second day of strikes in a dark week for Tunisian civil society as security forces swept up journalists and activists in what rights groups have characterised as a further crackdown on dissent.

“The regime’s machinery is operating very efficiently, meaning it devours anyone who has a critical perspective on the situation, … lawyers, journalists, bloggers, citizens or associations,” Romdhane Ben Amor of the Ligue Tunisienne pour la defense des droits de l’homme (LTDH, the Tunisian League for the Defence of Human Rights) said.

Ben Amor said President Kais Saied, like populists the world over, sides with those he sees as the people against the elites, encouraging them to blame others for their difficulties.

“So, of course, Kais Saied from now until the elections [scheduled for November] has a long list of individuals, associations, parties and journalists whom he will gradually criminalise to always maintain the sympathy of his electoral base,” Ben Amor said.

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Lawyers protest outside the central court in Tunis [Al Jazeera]

The purge

Saied, a former law professor elected in 2019, swept to power on widespread Tunisian anger and frustration over politics regarded as corrupt and self-serving.

After dismissing parliament in July 2021, Saied began rebuilding Tunisia according to his design, ignoring the acute, unresolved financial crisis that led to its 2011 revolution. He blamed “international plots against Tunisia”, rewrote the constitution and purged his critics in politics and the media.

He oversaw the arrest of leaders of the self-styled Muslim Democratic Ennahdha party, including former parliamentary Speaker Rached Ghannouchi as well as the party’s archrival, Abir Moussi.

He weakened the previously vibrant media, introducing Decree 54, criminalising the publication or broadcast of any information the state subsequently deems false.  And he has battled the judiciary, restructuring it to his own design.

In the protesting throng on Thursday was Lamine Benghazi of Avocats Sans Frontiers (Lawyers Without Borders).

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“The wave of repression we witnessed this week clearly marks a new threshold for Saied and Tunisia,” Benghazi said as the noise of the crowd almost drowned him out.

“Those parts of civil society that avoided the repression that followed the [July 2021 events] now seem to be the primary targets of the authorities. Arrests, raids and investigations on NGOs working on migrant rights have all multiplied over the last few weeks.”

The outlook for Tunisia’s civil society, whose leads were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2015, is grim, he said.

“Our fear is this crackdown will broaden to other groups, especially those working on democracy and rule of law and who are critical of the direction Tunisia is taking. The fact the discussions over the decree governing associations have resumed as civil society is under attack is no coincidence,” he said.

Benghazi referred to a law that parliament – now in a vastly weakened state – has long been discussing. If passed, it would force civil society groups to seek permission from authorities to operate, Amnesty International said in October.

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Arrests denounced

Anger was tangible among the protesters outside the imposing colonial courthouse. Slogans from the 2011 revolution rang out – “The people want to topple the regime” – as demonstrators denounced the treatment of their colleagues.

Sonia Dahmani was seized at the bar association on Saturday by masked police who stormed the building in front of television cameras to arrest her, reportedly in connection to a passing quip she had made about Tunisia on a television programme.

Lawyer Mehdi Zagrouba was taken on Monday after an initial national strike by lawyers to protest Dahmani’s arrest. Witnesses said police again violently entered the bar association, breaking windows and doors before detaining Zagrouba.

Zagrouba had been with Dahmani during her court appearance that day and active in the strike. The Ministry of the Interior charged him with verbally and physically attacking the police, which his defence denied.

Video of Zagrouba’s late-night arrest shows him being taken on a stretcher from the bar association, and sources told Al Jazeera that a photographer covering the event had his camera seized.

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On Wednesday, Zagrouba’s lawyers told a court he had been tortured before he collapsed and was taken to hospital, forcing the hearing’s postponement.

According to the Tunisian bar association, Zagrouba had “traces of physical violence on different parts of his body, which were examined by the investigating judge, confirming that he was tortured during his detention”.

“The Tunisian authorities have managed to subordinate the judiciary … and to effectively turn courts and the prosecutor’s office into tools of oppression,” Said Benarbia, director of the Middle East-North Africa programme at the International Commission of Jurists, told Al Jazeera.

“By targeting independent lawyers, the authorities are dismantling the remaining pillar on which the fair administration of justice stands, …. part of a wider campaign to intimidate and silence the legal profession, one of the last lines of defence against the government’s crackdown,” he added.

In a statement to local radio, the Interior Ministry denied that Zagrouba had been assaulted at any point and threatened to prosecute anyone sharing false information.

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Crackdown after crackdown

On the same evening as Dahmani’s arrest, TV and radio presenter Borhen Bsaies and political commentator Mourad Zeghidi were also arrested under an “anti-fake news” cybercrime law. Bsaies’s lawyer said no proper evidence had been offered to show his client had violated the law.

A judge ruled on Wednesday that both would be held until May 22 on charges of having breached Decree 54.

Bssais and Zeghidi are the latest in a long line of journalists accused of breaching Decree 54 or similar charges.

According to Zied Dabbar, head of the National Union of Tunisian Journalists, at least 60 journalists and commentators have so far been summoned under the law.

Among them is radio host Haythem El Mekki, who is being pursued after saying in April last year that the Sfax morgue was unable to cope with the number of refugee bodies it was receiving.

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Those found guilty of having breached Decree 54 face a fine of 50,000 dinars ($16,000) and a prison sentence of five years. The prison sentence could double to 10 years if the offence involves a public official.

“Tunisian authorities must urgently reverse this significant backsliding on human rights,” said Heba Morayef, Amnesty’s regional director for the Middle East and North Africa. “They must cease this judicial harassment and release all those detained solely for the exercise of their freedom of expression and freedom of association.”

Tunisia is also witnessing an influx of sub-Saharan Africans who arrive hoping to catch a boat to Europe – and a purge of groups defending them.

On May 6, Saied repeated claims, without evidence, to his security council of “plots against Tunisia” pertaining to the presence of sub-Saharan Africans.

On the same day, Saadia Mosbah, president of the anti-racism organisation Mnemty (My Dream) and Mnemty programme coordinator Zied Rouin were jailed on “terrorism” and money laundering charges.

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The following day, Human Rights Watch said, the president and vice president of the United Nations-partnered Tunisian Refugee Council were arrested after inviting Tunisian hotels to bid to accommodate refugees.

This crackdown on their advocates comes as police persecution of the thousands of Black refugees and migrants in Tunisia increases, including deporting them to Libya, which Saied confirmed.

Mosbah remains in custody. Rouin was released shortly after his arrest.

European backing

As Tunisia retreats from the democratic gains of its revolution, it may have lost some of its sheen, but its status as a transit point for tens of thousands of sub-Saharan African refugees means it will remain a priority for European politicians who fear arrivals from “the south” on their shores.

Far-right ItalianPrime Minister Giorgia Meloni has visited Tunisia many times, most recently in April, to meet with Saied to discuss stemming migration in Tunisia before it proceeds north.

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Meloni’s eagerness to support Saied is matched only by that of the European Union, which has made millions of euros in financial aid available to help shore up Tunisia’s economy and border security despite rights abuses by the government being well documented.

Nevertheless, both the EU and the United States Department of State have expressed concern over these latest purges with State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel saying the raids are “inconsistent with what we think are universal rights that are explicitly guaranteed in the Tunisian Constitution and we have been clear about at all levels”.

No mention has been made of any further action.

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Israel moves in on north Gaza Hamas stronghold, pounds Rafah without advancing

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Israel moves in on north Gaza Hamas stronghold, pounds Rafah without advancing
Israel’s tanks pushed into the heart of Jabalia in northern Gaza on Thursday, facing anti-tank rockets and mortar bombs from militants concentrated there, while in the south, its forces pounded Rafah without advancing, Palestinian residents and militants said.
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What to know about how much the aid from a US pier project will help Gaza

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What to know about how much the aid from a US pier project will help Gaza

A U.S.-built pier is in place to bring humanitarian aid to Gaza by sea, but no one will know if the new route will work until a steady stream of deliveries begins reaching starving Palestinians.

The trucks that will roll off the pier project installed Thursday will face intensified fighting, Hamas threats to target any foreign forces and uncertainty about whether the Israeli military will ensure that aid convoys have access and safety from attack by Israeli forces.

TEMPORARY FLOATING PIER FOR GAZA AID COMPLETED, WILL MOVE INTO POSITION ONCE WEATHER LETS UP: PENTAGON

Even if the sea route performs as hoped, U.S, U.N. and aid officials caution, it will bring in a fraction of the aid that’s needed to the embattled enclave.

Here’s a look at what’s ahead for aid arriving by sea:

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WILL THE SEA ROUTE END THE CRISIS IN GAZA?

No, not even if everything with the sea route works perfectly, American and international officials say.

The image provided by U.S, Central Command, shows U.S. Army soldiers assigned to the 7th Transportation Brigade (Expeditionary), U.S. Navy sailors assigned to Amphibious Construction Battalion 1, and Israel Defense Forces placing the Trident Pier on the coast of Gaza Strip on Thursday, May 16, 2024. The temporary pier is part of the Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore capability. The U.S. military finished installing the floating pier on Thursday, with officials poised to begin ferrying badly needed humanitarian aid into the enclave besieged over seven months of intense fighting in the Israel-Hamas war.  (U.S. Central Command via AP)

U.S. military officials hope to start with about 90 truckloads of aid a day through the sea route, growing quickly to about 150 trucks a day.

Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development, and other aid officials have consistently said Gaza needs deliveries of more than 500 truckloads a day — the prewar average — to help a population struggling without adequate food or clean water during seven months of war between Israel and Hamas.

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Israel has hindered deliveries of food, fuel and other supplies through land crossings since Hamas’ deadly attack on Israel launched the conflict in October. The restrictions on border crossings and fighting have brought on a growing humanitarian catastrophe for civilians.

International experts say all 2.3 million of Gaza’s people are experiencing acute levels of food insecurity, 1.1 million of them at “catastrophic” levels. Power and U.N. World Food Program Director Cindy McCain say north Gaza is in famine.

At that stage, saving the lives of children and others most affected requires steady treatment in clinical settings, making a cease-fire critical, USAID officials say.

At full operation, international officials have said, aid from the sea route is expected to reach a half-million people. That’s just over one-fifth of the population.

WHAT ARE THE CHALLENGES FOR THE SEA ROUTE NOW?

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The U.S. plan is for the U.N. to take charge of the aid once it’s brought in. The U.N. World Food Program will then turn it over to aid groups for delivery.

U.N. officials have expressed concern about preserving their neutrality despite the involvement in the sea route by the Israeli military — one of the combatants in the conflict — and say they are negotiating that.

There are still questions on how aid groups will safely operate in Gaza to distribute food to those who need it most, said Sonali Korde, assistant to the administrator for USAID’s Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance, which is helping with logistics.

U.S. and international organizations including the U.S. government’s USAID and the Oxfam, Save the Children and International Rescue Committee nonprofits say Israeli officials haven’t meaningfully improved protections of aid workers since the military’s April 1 attack that killed seven aid workers with the World Central Kitchen organization.

Talks with the Israeli military “need to get to a place where humanitarian aid workers feel safe and secure and able to operate safely. And I don’t think we’re there yet,” Korde told reporters Thursday.

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Meanwhile, fighting is surging in Gaza. It isn’t threatening the new shoreline aid distribution area, Pentagon officials say, but they have made it clear that security conditions could prompt a shutdown of the maritime route, even just temporarily.

The U.S. and Israel have developed a security plan for humanitarian groups coming to a “marshaling yard” next to the pier to pick up the aid, said U.S. Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, deputy commander of the U.S. military’s Central Command. USAID Response Director Dan Dieckhaus said aid groups would follow their own security procedures in distributing the supplies.

Meanwhile, Israeli forces have moved into the border crossing in the southern city of Rafah as part of their offensive, preventing aid from moving through, including fuel.

U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq said that without fuel, delivery of all aid in Gaza can’t happen.

WHAT’S NEEDED?

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U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration, the U.N. and aid groups have pressed Israel to allow more aid through land crossings, saying that’s the only way to ease the suffering of Gaza’s civilians. They’ve also urged Israel’s military to actively coordinate with aid groups to stop Israeli attacks on humanitarian workers.

“Getting aid to people in need into and across Gaza cannot and should not depend on a floating dock far from where needs are most acute,” U.N. deputy spokesman Farhan Haq told reporters Thursday.

“To stave off the horrors of famine, we must use the fastest and most obvious route to reach the people of Gaza — and for that, we need access by land now,” Haq said.

U.S. officials agree that the pier is only a partial solution at best, and say they are pressing Israel for more.

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WHAT DOES ISRAEL SAY?

Israel says it places no limits on the entry of humanitarian aid and blames the U.N. for delays in distributing goods entering Gaza. The U.N. says ongoing fighting, Israeli fire and chaotic security conditions have hindered delivery.

Under pressure from the U.S., Israel has in recent weeks opened a pair of crossings to deliver aid into hard-hit northern Gaza. It said a series of Hamas attacks on the main crossing, Kerem Shalom, have disrupted the flow of goods.

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