Russian President Vladimir Putin will mount a counteroffensive to try to retake territory in the Kursk region captured by Ukrainian troops, but Russian forces will encounter “a difficult fight,” Deputy CIA Director David Cohen said on Wednesday.

Cohen told a national security industry conference that the significance of the Ukrainian incursion, which has overrun some 300 square miles (777 square km) of the Russian province, remained to be seen.

PUTIN HITS UKRAINE WITH 200 MISSILES, DRONES IN MASSIVE STRIKES AMID INVASION ON RUSSIAN HOMELAND

Ukrainian forces crashed through Russia’s western border into the Kursk region on Aug. 6 in a surprise offensive that is continuing.

While Kyiv has said it has no intention of annexing the area it has captured, Ukrainian troops are building defensive lines and it appears that they intend to retain “some of that territory for some period of time,” Cohen told the Intelligence and National Security Summit.

“We can be certain that Putin will mount a counteroffensive to try to reclaim that territory,” Cohen said. “I think our expectation is that that will be a difficult fight for the Russians.”

Putin, he said, “is not only going to have to face the fact that there is a front line now within Russian territory that he’s going to have to deal with, he has to deal with reverberations back in his own society that they have lost a piece of Russian territory.”

Ukraine’s success in Kursk “has the potential to change the dynamic” of the conflict “a little bit going forward,” he continued without elaborating.

Ukraine has claimed the capture of 100 settlements in its incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, while Russian forces continue to inch forward in the eastern Donetsk region.

Cohen said that Russia has been making those gains “at extraordinary cost” in troops and equipment and “may or may not” capture the key Ukrainian logistics hub city of Pokrovsk.

“But at the end of the day, none of it is a game changer in a strategic sense” for the Russians, he continued.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the war with Russia would eventually end in dialogue, but that Kyiv had to be in a strong position and that he would present a plan to U.S. President Joe Biden and his two potential successors.

Putin has said any deal needs to start with Ukraine’s acceptance of “realities on the ground,” that would leave Russia with possession of substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions as well as Crimea.

Ukraine says it controls more than 1,200 square km (463 square miles) of the Kursk region.

Prisons in England and Wales are facing a severe overcrowding crisis amid reports that fewer than 100 spaces remain in men’s prisons.

According to the Ministry of Justice, prisons have been operating at more than 99 percent capacity since the start of 2023.

At the end of last week, the prison population stood at 88,234, up by 341 offenders the previous Friday, according to official figures. On Wednesday, UK media cited the Prison Officers’ Association saying only 83 places remained in men’s prisons.

The prison officers’ association has told GMB that the number of spare places in men’s prisons in England and Wales has fallen to just 83.

That’s the lowest figure on record and the closest the prison service has come to running out of space. pic.twitter.com/JZlVOGvdLf

— Good Morning Britain (@GMB) August 28, 2024

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On Friday last week, magistrates courts in England and Wales, lower courts which handle minor criminal cases, were told to delay the hearings of offenders on bail who are likely to be jailed until at least September 10.

The Labour government, which came into power last month in a landslide election, has repeatedly condemned the former governing party, the Conservatives, for neglecting the justice system and says its inaction has led to the current crisis.

As former director of public prosecutions, Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Tuesday that he “could not believe” he had to count available prison places to cope with those who had been arrested for involvement in the far-right riots which targeted Muslim and minority communities earlier this month.

“Not having enough prison places is about as fundamental a failure as you can get. And those people throwing rocks, torching cars, making threats, they didn’t just know the system was broken, they were betting on it, gaming it,” he said.

But why are prisons in England and Wales so overcrowded, and what is being done to remedy the problem?

How fast have prison numbers been rising in England and Wales?

Within Western Europe, the UK has the highest rate of incarceration, with prison numbers sharply rising since the pandemic due to case backlogs, court delays and a new requirement for serious offenders to serve at least two-thirds of their sentences behind bars following a 2023 sentencing bill.

According to figures from the Prison Service, 23 percent of inmates had to share cells due to crowding in 2022-2023.

The Ministry of Justice predicts that the prison population will grow to between 95,000 and 114,000 by 2027 once case backlogs have been cleared.

Official figures from last year showed that magistrates’ courts handled more than 1.33 million criminal cases of varying severity.

Why is England and Wales running out of prison space?

Mark Fairhurst, National Chair of the Professional Trades Union for Prison, Correctional and Secure Psychiatric Workers, confirmed that only 83 places remain in men’s prisons when Al Jazeera spoke to him.

He said prisons are in this situation because over the past “five or six years the previous government was warned they would need at least 96,000 prison spaces” to cater to demand.

“[But] the government failed to act on that advice and failed to supply enough spaces,” he said.

“They didn’t build enough prisons, and they didn’t create enough spaces within existing prisons. On the back of their [the Conservatives’] 14-year tenure in government, they closed 20 public sector prisons with the loss of 10,700 cell spaces. Whereas if they would have invested in those prisons and modernised them, we wouldn’t be in this situation now.”

The recent far-right riots in the UK have further exacerbated the crisis.

Prosecutors have been trying to fast-track those accused of being involved in the riots, in which about 1,000 people were arrested, and 466 have so far been charged after courts sat for 24 hours per day to hear cases of those arrested in the riots.

What is the new government doing to manage the crisis?

Following the riots earlier this month, the government announced Operation Early Dawn, under which defendants waiting to appear in court will be held in police station cells and not summoned to magistrates’ courts until space is available in prisons.

The measure is expected to reduce the number of new inmates in already overcrowded prison facilities.

In July, the new justice secretary, Shabana Mahmood, also announced plans to reduce the minimum time inmates should serve from 50 percent of their sentences to 40 percent.

Then, last Friday, magistrates courts were told to delay hearings for offenders likely to be imprisoned.

“There is now only one way to avert disaster. I do not choose to do this because I want to … but we are taking every protection that is available to us. Let me be clear, this is an emergency measure,” Mahmood said.

“This is not a permanent change. I am unapologetic in my belief that criminals must be punished,” she added.

The changes are expected to come into effect in September, resulting in 5,500 people being released in September and October.

However, Nasrul Ismail, a senior lecturer in criminology at the University of Bristol, told Al Jazeera that the emergency measure to hold defendants in police cells raises “significant concerns regarding cost, rehabilitation, and sustainability”.

“For instance, between February and July 2023, an average of 274 police cells were used daily to cope with the prison capacity crisis, equating to 612 pounds [$806.48] per day – six times higher than the average cost per prison place per day,” Ismail said.

“Police cells are not designed for medium- or long-term imprisonment, making it nearly impossible to provide effective rehabilitation programmes,” he added.

Which sorts of prisoners will have their sentences shortened?

The temporary measure of reducing minimum serving time will not apply to those convicted of sex offences, terrorism, domestic abuse or other violent offences.

Those involved in the recent riots will also not be eligible for shortened sentencing.

A July news release from the Ministry of Justice stated that anyone released will be “strictly monitored.”

What does this mean for society?

Fairhurst said that temporary measures will affect everyone because “what has been swift justice for some will be delayed justice for others”.

“What do the victims of crime think about somebody who, for example, may have been sentenced to 10 years, but they’re actually only going to serve four? That does not create a good public image for government or the prison service,” he said.

“So, I think what is important to note is that this is a temporary measure, which will probably only last for a maximum of 18 months before the government need to come up with some long-term strategy,” he added.

Ismail said other effects on society could also flow from a lack of effective rehabilitation programmes for inmates due to the overcrowding issue.

He added once an inmate had been released early due to the temporary measures, the issue of “severely overstretched” housing and probation systems arises.

“This prompts the urgent need for comprehensive reform across the entire criminal justice system, not just in addressing the lack of prison space,” Ismail said.

What should the government do now?

In the lead-up to July’s general election, the Labour Party’s manifesto included a pledge to deliver 14,000 prison places at a cost of 4 billion pounds ($5.2bn).

However, Fairhurst said this would not address the problem in isolation. “I think we need to reduce the prison population, and I think a good way of doing that would be to scrap the new build prison programme and plough that 4 billion pounds back into public services,” he said.

He argued that using the money to fund probation and mental health services would address the overcrowding crisis and make society “a lot safer” than using it to increase prison places, which would lead to more people being sentenced to fill up the spaces.

Ismail also said the government should take more preventive measures and fund rehabilitation programmes and youth clubs to reduce rates of criminality.