Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola narrowly leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s 2026 U.S. Senate race, a potential shakeup in the fairly red state, according to a new poll.
Newsweek reached out to Peltola’s press team via email on Wednesday for comment.
Why It Matters
Democrats are facing a tough Senate map in the 2026 midterms. Even if President Donald Trump’s approval rating fuels a Democratic wave, the party still needs to win control of states that backed him by double digits in the 2024 election to win a majority.
But Peltola, the only Democrat to win statewide in recent years, may be able to make the race against Sullivan competitive. Alaska could become the state that decides control of the Senate in November.
What To Know
Peltola represented Alaska’s at-large congressional district in the House, first winning a special election in 2022, defeating former Governor Sarah Palin to fill the late GOP Representative Don Young’s seat. She was elected to a full term later in 2022 and lost her reelection bid in 2024.
Peltola, who only recently announced her campaign for the Senate, raised $1.5 million in the first 24 hours of her bid.
An Alaska Survey Research poll conducted January 8-11, ahead of Peltola’s official announcement, showed her leading Sullivan by more than 1.5 percentage points. The poll found that 48 percent of participants back Peltola to 46.4 percent for Sullivan. About 5.6 percent of participants are undecided.
The survey of 2,132 Alaska adults, 1,988 of whom are registered to vote, also found that Peltola has a more positive rating than Sullivan, 46 percent to 39 percent. In terms of his job approval rating, 36 percent of participants approve of his work while 44.5 percent disapprove.
Nearly half of the poll’s participants, 46 percent, said they have no party affiliation, while 30 percent identify as Republican and 15.4 percent as Democrat. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
Nate Adams, Sullivan’s campaign spokesperson, told Newsweek: “Senator Sullivan has spent years delivering real results for Alaska: historic investments in our state’s health care, major funding for our Coast Guard, helping protect those who can’t protect themselves and policies that are finally unleashing Alaska’s energy potential. Dan Sullivan delivers for Alaska, and that will be the focus of his campaign. Conversely, his opponent served a term and a half in Congress where she didn’t pass a single bill. Alaskans deserve a senator with a proven record of getting things done, and the contrast couldn’t be clearer in this race.”
Mary Peltola, in her campaign announcement: “My agenda for Alaska will always be fish, family, and freedom. But our future also depends on fixing the rigged system in DC that’s shutting down Alaska, while politicians feather their own nest. DC people will be pissed that I’m focusing on their self-dealing, and sharing what I’ve seen firsthand. They’re going to complain that I’m proposing term limits. But it’s time.”
Senator Dan Sullivan, on X on January 6: “I am so excited about 2026 and all of the opportunities ahead for our great state. The Alaska comeback is happening!”
Alaska Democratic Party Chair Eric Croft, in a statement: “Mary Peltola is our most steadfast champion and a strong voice for Alaskans in every region of our state…Mary has never been afraid to stand up to powerful special interests or her own party to put Alaskans first—and we can’t wait to elect her to represent us in the U.S. Senate this November.”
Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, a Republican, on Alaska Public Media: “We’ve had a pretty solid team here in the Senate for the past 12 years, so we want to figure out how we’re going to keep in the majority. And Dan delivers that.”
What Happens Next
Candidates will spend the coming months making their case to voters, as both parties try to win control of the Senate in the midterms. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the Alaska race “Leans Republican.”
Update 1/14/26, 3:43 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Sullivan’s campaign.
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