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Transactional partners: How 200-year distrust shapes Russia’s response to the Iran conflict

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Transactional partners: How 200-year distrust shapes Russia’s response to the Iran conflict

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In March 2026, as the smoke cleared over Tehran following the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran’s leadership, Russia’s response was strikingly restrained. Despite a 20-year strategic partnership treaty signed with Tehran just last year, Moscow limited its reaction to condemnation and calls for diplomacy. 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia had received no request from Iran for military assistance. “There were no requests from Iran in this case,” Peskov told reporters on March 5th.

For analysts who study the relationship between Moscow and Tehran, the moment felt familiar. “The relationship has always been transactional,” said Ksenia Svetlova, executive director of the Regional Organization for Peace, Economy and Security (ROPES) and an associate fellow at Chatham House. “Russia does what serves its own interests.”

While Iran and Russia have moved closer in recent years — particularly after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — experts say the partnership has never resembled a true alliance. Instead, they say, it reflects a long history of cooperation shaped by convenience, rivalry and shifting geopolitical needs.

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HEGSETH WARNS RUSSIA AS SIGNS POINT TO MOSCOW SHARING INTEL WITH IRAN

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, greets Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi prior to their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Monday, June 23, 2025. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

The Shadow of Turkmenchay

The uneasy relationship between the two powers stretches back nearly two centuries. In 1828, the Treaty of Turkmenchay forced Persia to cede large parts of the Caucasus to the Russian Empire after a military defeat. The treaty remains one of the most painful symbols of foreign domination in Iranian political memory.

In the twentieth century, Russia’s relationship with Iran shifted dramatically. Before the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Moscow maintained relatively stable ties with Iran under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. “It actually had good relations with the Shah who visited Moscow after World War II,” Svetlova said.

“But Communist Russia was very suspicious of Islamist Iran after the 1979 revolution,” said Svetlova. It was a mutual distrust; Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini denounced both Cold War superpowers, calling the United States the “Great Satan” and the Soviet Union the “Lesser Satan.” 

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Even during the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, the Soviet Union maintained ties with Tehran while simultaneously supplying weapons to Iraq. “The Soviet Union was very suspicious of Islamist Iran,” Svetlova said. “Even after the revolution, the relationship could not really be considered an alliance.”

AS UKRAINE WAR DRAGS ON, TRUMP HITS PUTIN BY SQUEEZING RUSSIA’S PROXIES

Iran uses Russia exercises to reposition strike drones in Strait of Hormuz, a defense expert said. (Iranian Army/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The Drone Marriage

In recent years, however, geopolitical pressures pushed the two countries closer together. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 created new military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran. 

Though Russia and Iran have not shared a land border since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, they remain “neighbors” via the Caspian Sea. This “blue border” became a vital artery in 2022 when Iran supplied the Shahed-series drones used in Ukraine, that Russia has used extensively in attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.

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Vice Adm. Robert S. Harward, a retired Navy SEAL and former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, said the partnership has had direct consequences on the battlefield. “Sadly, the world is just now getting a taste of Iranian drones. But there’s one group that already knows them well, the Christians in Ukraine,” Harward said. “Close to 600 Ukrainian churches have been destroyed by Russian attacks, including from the Iranian Shahed drones.”

The remains of a Russian-made, Iran-designed Shahed-136 drone, known in Russia as a Geran-2, are displayed with other recovered drones, glide bombs, missiles and rockets in Kharkiv on July 30, 2025. (Scott Peterson/Getty Images)

Carrie Filipetti, executive director of the Vandenberg Coalition and a former deputy assistant secretary of state, argued that Russia’s continued use of Iranian drones against Ukrainian targets underscores the depth of the military relationship, while its calls for restraint in the current conflict highlight a fundamental contradiction. “If Russia were serious about peace, we would see a ceasefire with Ukraine months ago,” she said. “Yet, Putin continues to attack Ukrainian cities, churches and civilians with Iranian drones day after day.”

And yet, Russia’s dependence on Iranian drones during the early stages of the Ukraine war has also diminished as Moscow built its own production capacity. A report cited by the Washington Post found that Russia has “transitioned from importing Iranian Shahed drones to mass-manufacturing them” under the name Geran-2.

Limits and Intelligence

War Secretary Pete Hegseth said Tuesday that Russia “should not be involved” in the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, as reports that Russia has provided information that could help Iran identify U.S. military assets in the Middle East emerged. Moscow has not publicly confirmed the claims. 

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“I believe Russia is providing Iran intelligence to more effectively target Americans, our allies and partners in the CENTCOM region,” said Lt. Gen. Richard Y. Newton III, a retired Air Force officer who served as assistant vice chief of staff of the U.S. Air Force. “It’s absolutely clear Russia is not our friend.”

IRAN LAUNCHES SATELLITES ON RUSSIAN ROCKETS AS MOSCOW-TEHRAN TIES DEEPEN

Members of the Iranian Navy attend the joint Navy exercise of Iran, China and Russia in the Gulf of Oman, Iran, in this handout image obtained on March 12, 2025.  (Iranian Army/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via Reuters)

“They are doing for the Iranians without spending money, spending troops or spending equipment,” Svetlova added. “They share knowledge. They supplied the Iranians with a target list, basically, through their satellites – American targets, but also air targets in the Gulf and Iraq.”

Harward argued that confronting this growing cooperation requires a broader strategy. “If we want to break the threat of the increasingly dangerous Russian-Iranian alliance, we need to fully decimate Iran’s capabilities to threaten our allies and the United States – and we need to continue to support Ukraine and get Europeans to do their part,” he said.

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Filipetti remains skeptical of Moscow’s role as a mediator. “The idea that Russia would call on the U.S. and Israel to cease military operations against the regime in Iran and suggest that we should negotiate is absurd,” Filipetti said.

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Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) meets with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. ((Photo by Dmitry AZAROV / SPUTNIK / AFP) (Photo by DMITRY AZAROV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images))

Although Russia is falling short of helping Iran in a straightforward military way, experts say the cooperation in the world of intelligence has been profound. 

Ultimately, Newton argued that Russia’s actions should be viewed through the lens of President Vladimir Putin’s broader geopolitical goals. “Putin only does what serves Putin, and right now escalating the war in the Middle East and driving up oil prices only serves his interests so he can continue to fund his war machine against Ukraine,” he said.

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Jessie Mei Li, Karina Lam, Chris Pang and Toby Stephens on the Rich and Restless in Hong Kong Glamour Drama ‘The Season’: ‘They’re All Human Beings Who Are Terrified’

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Jessie Mei Li, Karina Lam, Chris Pang and Toby Stephens on the Rich and Restless in Hong Kong Glamour Drama ‘The Season’: ‘They’re All Human Beings Who Are Terrified’

There are no trailers on a boat. This is the logistical reality that Toby Stephens found himself confronting somewhere in the middle of shooting “The Season,” Hulu‘s new drama about the bad behavior of Hong Kong’s sailing elite – a show that, almost by design, offered its cast nowhere to hide.

“Normally when you’re filming, you can go back there, and at lunchtime you can have a little snoozy,” Stephens says, with the weary affection of a man who has made his peace with it. Instead, he meditated on deck. His castmates photographed him doing it. There was, apparently, a sitar soundtrack.

Six episodes. Fifty days. Humid, floating, relentless. And by all accounts, a genuinely wonderful time.

“Because we had such a fun cast,” says Karina Lam, who plays Fiona Hext, “all that just became so much easier.” Jessie Mei Li, who plays the American Cola despite being resolutely English, agrees. “You just have each other to get through it. And we had so many belly laughs with the crew.”

The warmth is real, but so is the craft that went into making “The Season” – a show that arrives on Hulu on June 17 with all six episodes at once, produced by PCCW Media and SK Global, shot almost entirely on real Hong Kong locations, and built around a cast that spent most of production at sea.

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For Lam, the challenge was language. She has spent 25 years acting in Cantonese and Mandarin – launched her career in Hong Kong, built a parallel life as a singer in Taiwan, was born and raised in Canada – and describes herself as a hybrid in the most literal sense. “I dream in Chinese,” she says. English fluency and English acting, it turns out, are different muscles entirely. “There are certain things you can only express in Cantonese,” she says. The ambiguity of Chinese, the way meaning pools in the spaces between words, resists translation.

Mei Li had the opposite problem. Playing an American in a production staffed by Australians, Brits, a Chilean director and a Hispanic DP, her brain kept mutinying. “Because I like to assimilate when I’m talking to someone, I can’t help but copy them,” she says. The accent kept slipping. “There were just some times where my accent was coming up. I’ll be talking to Chris, and I then suddenly say something in a scene that just sounded Australian.”

Chris Pang, for his part, was wrestling with something thornier than phonetics. His character, Andrew Fung, is written to be obnoxious – cartoonishly, gleefully, exhaustingly so. The question was whether audiences would stick with him. “Andrew is unabashedly and unapologetically an asshole,” Pang says. “He just says the most outlandish, most horrible things. And it’s going to be a mission to find that balance, where you say these things but you still like this guy.” The goal, as he frames it: “an asshole, but one that you can’t help but love.” Director Marialy Rivas, he says, encouraged him to push further than he thought wise. He pushed too far, regularly. “Marialy would give me a take and just be like, just go all out, and I’d go way too far. Like, okay, we’re not using that.”

Stephens, playing Christopher Hext – patriarch, power broker, the kind of man who wears his wealth like armor – was after something quieter. The danger with characters like this, he says, is that they flatten into archetype. “Characters can come across as sort of one-dimensional, kind of evil rich people who are just sort of sociopathic.” What interested him was the gap between the performance of power and whatever lives underneath it. “They’re all masking. They’re all throwing up these things about, I’m rich, I’m powerful, I’ve got this status, but underneath it, they’re all human beings who are all terrified. They feel all of these other things.”

It is, perhaps, also a description of Hong Kong itself – a city that presents one face and contains multitudes. All four cast members return, unprompted, to the idea of the city as something more than backdrop. “Hong Kong seems like a character on its own,” Lam says. She has shot dozens of films here and found herself, through this production’s use of real locations and an outsider’s lens, seeing it differently. “I’ve shot so many Hong Kong produced films here, and it’s never been this way, in this kind of lens.”

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Mei Li goes further. The show moves between worlds – the gleaming marina set of the ultra-wealthy and the more grounded lives of characters outside that orbit – and the city absorbs both. “It’s not just we filmed it in Hong Kong. It’s like, this show is about Hong Kong in so many ways.” Stephens, characteristically, cuts to it: “This show could only take place in Hong Kong.”

The series is created and showrun by Yalun Tu, with Marialy Rivas serving as lead director and executive producer. It is produced by PCCW Media in partnership with SK Global, the company behind “Crazy Rich Asians,” “Thai Cave Rescue” and “Delhi Crime.” International sales are handled by Fremantle with support from De Maio Entertainment. Beyond Hulu, the series will stream on Viu across Asia, the Middle East and South Africa, and on Now TV in Hong Kong.

As for what comes next: Stephens is returning to the U.K. for a period film about two nuns on the run during the dissolution of the monasteries under Henry VIII – “Thelma and Louise in Tudor times,” he calls it – titled “The Reformation of Mother Agnes.” Pang has written a crime thriller, currently titled “Brother Gangster” (“I think it needs to change,” he says), with director Jane Woo attached to helm. Mei Li heads to the Soho Theatre in London this summer for “Tender,” a four-person comedy by Dave Harris – only her second time on stage. “It’s something a bit different,” she says. Lam is due to begin filming in September on a project with a Malaysian director, details undisclosed.

All four have moved on to other projects, other cities, other worlds. But Hong Kong has a way of pulling people back.

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Khamenei’s ‘target-rich’ funeral is Iran’s biggest security gamble, sends message to US: expert

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Khamenei’s ‘target-rich’ funeral is Iran’s biggest security gamble, sends message to US: expert

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Iran’s decision to hold a July funeral for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a high-stakes bet that any emerging peace deal with the United States will hold, potentially creating a “target-rich” gathering of Tehran’s most isolated leaders, a counterterrorism expert warned Sunday.

The multi-day state funeral, announced by Iranian state media on June 13, is scheduled to begin in Tehran on July 4 and end with Khamenei’s burial in the holy city of Mashhad on July 9, Reuters reported.

According to Dr. Omar Mohammed, director of the Antisemitism Research Initiative at the Program on Extremism at George Washington University, the timing serves as a deliberate message to America.

“A mass funeral is the most target-rich event this regime could stage, and now they would not risk one until they are confident it wouldn’t be hit,” Mohammed told Fox News Digital.

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IRAN HOLDS FUNERAL FOR TOP COMMANDERS, NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS KILLED IN ISRAELI OPERATION

A motorist rides past a banner featuring images of Iran’s slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his son Mojtaba Khamenei along a street in Tehran on April 15, 2026. (AFP/Getty Images)

“But it is the staging of this funeral that is the message, and the message is aimed at America as much as at Iranians.”

The announcement also coincided with a major diplomatic breakthrough, coming as President Donald Trump announced that a peace deal with Tehran is expected to be signed Sunday.

“The regime could sign a deal that lets it keep its leverage, then bury its leader as the victor who won it,” Mohammed said.

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“Announcing the funeral Saturday as Pakistan said the final text of a deal was reached and signing is close, is their bet that the ceasefire holds into July.”

Khamenei was killed on Feb. 28 during the opening salvo of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, ending a 36-year tenure leading the Islamic Republic. He was 86.

Experts say the regime is using the four-month delay since the February strikes to completely reframe the narrative of the conflict.

“Khamenei goes into the ground as a man America murdered, so the deal becomes a tactical pause — revenge deferred, not abandoned,” Mohammed observed. “The deeper logic is that you bury the leader as a victor, not a victim.”

“They can now stage the funeral as the war’s victory monument: the martyred Imam laid to rest as the man whose resistance forced America to terms,” Mohammed added.

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“The four-month delay was not only security. It was waiting for a win to bury him.”

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, SUPREME LEADER OF IRAN

Supporters gather in Baghdad’s Sadr district holding Iranian flags and posters of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following the announcement that he was killed in U.S.-Israeli attacks on March 1, 2026. (Murtadha Al-Sudani/Anadolu)

Following three days of public ceremonies in Tehran, the procession will move to the clerical heartland of Qom on July 7 before concluding in Mashhad on July 9.

Analysts note the dates heavily leverage deep Shia religious iconography, falling directly within the holy mourning month of Muharram.

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“This is also a staged passion play, not a schedule because the dates fall within Muharram, the Shia mourning month centered on Imam Hussein’s martyrdom at Karbala, and the burial on July 9 is timed to the eve of another Imam’s martyrdom,” Mohammed said.

“The body goes into the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad — the only one of the 12 Imams buried in Iran, and the holiest site in Iranian Shiism — giving the regime a permanent martyr’s shrine and mobilization site for years.”

Mohammed noted that scheduling the opening ceremonies on the 250th anniversary of America’s Independence Day carries deliberate geopolitical signaling.

“The regime had room to choose which Muharram days and, at a minimum, it’s a message they are happy to broadcast; very possibly it’s the point — while America marks 250 years, Iran opens the funeral of the leader America killed and calls it the beginning of its victory.”

LETHAL ELITE ‘BLACK-CLAD’ KILL SQUAD GUARDS IRAN’S NEW SUPREME LEADER MOJTABA KHAMENEI

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Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is shown in a portrait image. (Fox News)

The highly public, multi-city route presents a massive security vulnerability for Iran’s new leadership.

Khamenei’s son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has remained entirely in hiding due to targeted security threats and reported injury since the war began.

“By every tradition, the son leads the prayers and stands at the grave; it is the act that consecrates the succession,” Mohammed noted.

“But Mojtaba has not appeared in public since the war began, runs the country by courier, and is a designated target — and a funeral is a pre-announced time and place. For a man whose every confirmed sighting is a coordinate, July 9 in Mashhad is the most dangerous appointment of his rule.”

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“The regime is boxed: It needs the son at the father’s grave to crown the dynasty, but putting him there exposes him as never before,” Mohammed concluded.

“If he appears, it’s his first sighting and a gamble; if he doesn’t, the dynasty is consecrated by an absence.”

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Claims Israel’s Beirut strike pushed Trump on Iran announcement

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Claims Israel’s Beirut strike pushed Trump on Iran announcement
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US diplomat Alan Eyre says despite the US-Iran ceasefire announcement, there is no deal until it has been formalised – and likely Israel’s strike on Beirut pushed the US into last minute action.

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