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The trajectory of Ukraine's fight against Russia hangs on the outcome of the US election

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The trajectory of Ukraine's fight against Russia hangs on the outcome of the US election

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — There is no doubt that the U.S. election will determine the trajectory of the war in Ukraine.

The status of military aid from Kyiv’s chief international backer is dependent on who becomes president, as is any prospect for a cease-fire that could benefit Ukraine.

Some in Kyiv say the country’s very existence hinges on who wins the White House.

As Americans vote, exhausted and outmanned Ukrainian soldiers are holding defensive lines under constant Russian fire, knowing the results will dictate their future.

The war in Ukraine is one of the most divisive issues of the Nov. 5 election: Former President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, advocate very different views on how much support the U.S. should continue to give Ukraine.

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After a whirlwind Western tour, Kyiv’s leaders have tried to promote their version of what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy calls his “victory plan.” They hope key decisions will be made — including Ukraine’s bid for NATO membership — by the new administration.

For now, they have no choice but to wait.

“We believe that regardless of the last name of the future president of the U.S., the country of the United States will not give up global dominance, global leadership as such. And this is possible only through the support of Ukraine and through the defeat of the Russian Federation,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelenskyy.

Harris would likely continue Biden’s policies

Harris, who has decried President Vladimir Putin’s “brutality,” would likely carry on President Joe Biden’s policy of support, albeit within the strict limits on Ukraine’s ability to strike deep inside Russian territory that have frustrated Kyiv’s leaders.

“President Biden has made it clear from the beginning of this conflict that his top priority has been to avoid an all-out war with Russia. I think that remains the top American priority,” said Malcom Chalmers, deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute in London.

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The U.S. has provided Ukraine more than $59.5 billion in military weapons and assistance since Russia invaded in February 2022. But throughout, Kyiv has been captive to fraught American politics that often undermined its battlefield potential.

Ukraine lost territory and manpower as weapons stocks dwindled during the six months it took the U.S. Congress to pass an aid package. Even promised military assistance has failed to arrive on time or in sufficient quantities.

Ukraine is still hoping for Western approval of strikes inside Russian territory with longer-range weapons supplied by its allies. It also holds hundreds of square kilometers (square miles) in Russia’s Kursk region after an incursion in August.

Still, Biden’s commitment to support Ukraine has never wavered. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced a $400 million package during his recent visit. Zelenskyy said he expects another worth $800 million, the first tranche for Ukraine’s production of long-range capabilities. Still another $8 billion is expected by the end of the year.

But for some, all that is too late.

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“If the amount of aid that was promised but not delivered had been fulfilled, we could have entered negotiations in a stronger position with Russia,” said Gen. Lt. Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of the General Staff.

What to know about the 2024 Election

Trump’s vague vows and praise for Putin

Trump has repeatedly taken issue with U.S. aid to Ukraine, made vague vows to end the war and has praised Putin.

He also is considered highly unpredictable.

Some Ukrainian officials even privately welcome this quality, saying it could bring about results quicker. But so much is unknown about what decisions Trump would make.

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“He has emphasized that he has a very different approach to Ukraine than Kamala Harris. And if what he’s saying now is translated into action, then it’s going to be a very rocky period for Ukraine,” Chalmers said.

“Donald Trump is raising the very distinct probability that the United States will cut off most if not all military aid to Ukraine, which given that the situation on the ground, although deadlocked, is one which Russia currently has the advantage, could tip the balance in Russia’s favor,” he added.

Podolyak said Trump “understands the logic” of Zelenskyy’s plans after meeting with him. “Mr. Trump realized that there is no way to agree on something in this war, because it is necessary to ensure Russia’s compulsion to understand what a war is, what consequences Russia will have in this war. That is, Russia can be forced to do something, but not asked.”

Faced with Trump’s harsh rhetoric, some Ukrainian officials say that despite his stated views, his actions as president at times benefited Ukraine. Some of the toughest sanctions fell on Russia’s elite during his administration. Trump also approved the sale of lethal weapons to Ukraine, something President Barack Obama fell short of doing.

Most Ukrainians fear Trump will halt all military aid to Kyiv, and no other country can match the U.S. support. Ukrainian soldiers remain defiant, saying they’ll continue to hold the line, no matter what.

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But the practical implications would be dire, and Kyiv may be forced to accept devastating cease-fire terms, with a fifth of its territory under Russian control.

“If the aid is stopped, the situation will become more complicated,” Romanenko said. “In this case, the seizure of Ukrainian land will continue, but we do not know how fast, because their offensive potential is not unlimited.”

Zelenskyy’s plans hang in the balance

Zelenskyy has presented his vision for ending the war to both Trump and Harris, arguing for its necessity. He said Ukraine hopes for a post-election response from Washington, particularly on the question of NATO membership, insisting that such an invitation be irreversible.

Both Ukraine and Russia are feeling considerable economic and societal strain to maintain the war effort. For the first time, Zelenskyy has openly discussed the potential for a partial cease-fire. But important questions remain about the fate of Russian-occupied territories.

Russia has allocated a large part of its government budget to defense spending and continues to lose thousands of men. The potential introduction of what Zelenskyy has put at 10,000 North Korean troops signals that Moscow is having issues with mobilizing new conscripts.

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Ukraine’s battered energy infrastructure and struggling mobilization drive is under far more pressure than Russia, however. Kyiv must find a way to de-escalate the intensity of the war and attacks on shipping and energy assets.

“In the end, it’s only going to happen if both sides calculate that they will get a net benefit from doing so,” Chalmers said.

“My concern would be in the uncertainty of the coming months when the Russians may believe that one last push and they can really get much larger concessions from the Ukrainians,” he added.

Zelenskyy’s plans were developed with this reality in mind. It’s why his team insists Russia must be forced to talk rather than convinced to do so. Without nuclear weapons to serve as a deterrent, NATO is the only logical alternative.

“I said, ‘We don’t have nuclear weapons, and we are not in NATO, and we will not be in NATO during the war. That’s why I need this package. And you cannot be against it,’” Zelenskyy said, describing his argument to reporters.

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Follow AP’s coverage of Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/ukraine#

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‘SNL’: Colin Jost Forced to Tell Dirty Jokes About Wife Scarlett Johansson as She Watches Backstage: ‘Oh My Gosh, She’s So Genuinely Worried!’

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‘SNL’: Colin Jost Forced to Tell Dirty Jokes About Wife Scarlett Johansson as She Watches Backstage: ‘Oh My Gosh, She’s So Genuinely Worried!’

For several years, the final “Saturday Night Live” episode of the year includes a segment of “Weekend Update” in which co-anchors Colin Jost and Michael Che write jokes that the other must read for the first time on the air. For Jost, this typically has meant Che forces him to say a litany of jokes about race and racism that are horrifically tone deaf and over-the-top — and, in context, often quite funny.

This year, however, Che found a new way to torture Jost: Making him say outrageous things about his wife, Scarlett Johansson — while a camera captured Johansson’s live reactions in the hallway outside of the studio. The actor appeared during the episode’s cold open to welcome host Martin Short into the Five Timers Club, and Che apparently could not resist the chance to have some fun at the couple’s expense.

The bit started with Jost reading that this year, he was going to “read all the jokes in ‘Black voice’ so I don’t get in trouble,” which led into Jost reading a joke about Kamala Harris saying she still supports the idea of slavery reparations. 

“Well, damn girl, me too,” Jost said, barely able to get the words out through his exasperated laughter. “Because white people deserve our money back for all those slaves that ran away.”

That was a mere appetizer for what Jost was required to say about his wife. Just the sight of her face in an image over Jost’s shoulder was enough to have some people in the audience screaming in anticipation of what was to come.

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NBC

“I want to dedicate this next joke to my boo, Scarlett Johansson,” Jost said, and then a camera cut to a nervous Johansson, clutching a drink as she watched Jost from a monitor above her.

“No! No!” Jost said, as he realized what was happening. “Oh my gosh, she’s so genuinely worried!”

Then he got to the business of reading, for the first time, the jokes Che had written for him.

“Y’all know Scarlett just celebrated her 40th birthday, which means I’m about to get up out of there!” Jost said, again exploding in guffaws before he could even finish the line. After he regained his composure — and Che reminded him that there was more to the joke — Jost continued. “Shiz! Nah, nah. I’m just playin’,” he said. “We just had a kid together, and y’all ain’t see no pictures of him yet, because he’s Black as hell!” — at which point, a Photoshopped image of Jost and Johansson holding a Black baby appeared over Jost’s shoulder.

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Che certainly had his fair share of comedic humiliation, forced to make jokes about “Moana 2” and Jeffrey Epstein, Jay-Z, and his promise to Diddy that “I will help get you off.” But then the spotlight turned back to Jost, who ended the segment with a joke involving his wife that is so R-rated that it genuinely startled Johansson. Warning: This is not for the faint of heart!

“Costco has removed their roast beef sandwich from its menu, but I ain’t tripping,” Jost said. “I be eating roast beef every night since my wife had the kid!” After the audience, Jost and Che all stopped laughing, Jost read the final lines. “Nah, nah, I just playin’ baby. You know I don’t go downtown! Shiz! That’s gay as hell!”

Martin Short hosted the episode with Hozier as musical guest. You can watch the full segment below:

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Wife of US hostage Keith Siegel pleads for holiday miracle: 'we need to get them back'

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Wife of US hostage Keith Siegel pleads for holiday miracle: 'we need to get them back'

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FIRST ON FOX – Aviva Siegel, the wife of American hostage Kieth Siegel and a former hostage herself, is pleading with everyone and anyone involved in the hostage negotiations to get her husband, and the others, freed from Hamas captivity after they have spent more than 440 days in deplorable conditions. 

“Hamas released a video of Keith, and I just saw the picture,” Aviva told Fox News Digital in an emotional interview in reference to a video Hamas released in April. “He looks terrible. His bones are out, and you can see that he’s lost a lot of weight.

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“He doesn’t look like himself. And I’m just so worried about him, because so [many] days and minutes have passed since that video that we received,” she said. “I just don’t know what kind of Keith that we’re going to get back.”

Keith Samuel Siegel, 64, remains hostage in Gaza by Hamas (Hostage Family Forum)

7 US HOSTAGES STILL HELD BY HAMAS TERRORISTS AS FAMILIES PLEAD FOR THEIR RELEASE: ‘THIS IS URGENT’

“I’m worried about all the hostages, because the conditions that they are in are the worst conditions that any human being could go through,” Aviva said. “I was there. I touched death. I know what it feels being underneath the ground with no oxygen. 

“Keith and I were just left there. We were left there to die,” she added. 

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Aviva and her husband of, at the time 42 years, were brutally abducted from their home in Kibbutz Kfar Aza by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, and held together for 51 days before she was released in the November 2023 hostage exchange after suffering from a stomach infection that left her incredibly ill. 

She has since tirelessly fought for Kieth’s release, meeting with top officials in the U.S. and Israel, traveling to the United States nine times in the last year and becoming a prominent advocate for the hostages. 

“I just hope that he’s with other people from Israel, and if he has them, he’s going to be okay,” Aviva said. “He’s just the person that will make them feel that they’re together. That’s what he did when I was there – he was 100% for me and the hostages that we were with.”

Aviva Siegel

TEL AVIV, ISRAEL – MARCH 30: Released hostage Aviva Siegel, wife of hostage Keith Siegel, speaks during the final weekly ‘bring them home now’ rally on March 30, 2024 in Tel Aviv, Israel. According to the families of hostages forum, this would be the last week a rally is held at ‘hostage square’ citing that the government is not serious about negotiations and instead will be protesting in front of the Knesset from now on.  (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)

 “If you get kidnapped, get kidnapped with Keith, because he was outstanding to everybody. He was strong for all of us. And I’m sure that he’s keeping strong and keeping his hope to come out,” she said. 

Aviva recounted their last moments together before they were separated ahead of her release, telling Fox News Digital, “When I left him, I told him to be the strongest – that he needs to be strong for me, and I’ll be strong for him.”

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PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY UNDER PRESSURE AMID RISING RESISTANCE, POPULARITY OF IRAN-BACKED TERROR GROUPS

Top security officials from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar have been pushing Israel and Hamas to agree to a cease-fire and the return of hostages. 

Reports on Thursday suggested that negotiators are pushing for a 42-day cease-fire in which 34 of the at least 50 hostages still assessed to be alive, could be exchanged. 

Hamas is also believed to continue to hold at least 38 who were taken hostage and then killed while in captivity, along with at least seven who are believed to have been killed on Oct. 7, 2023 and then taken into Gaza. 

Though all the hostages are believed to have been held in deplorable conditions, the children, women – including the female IDF soldiers – the sick and the elderly have reportedly been front listed to be freed first in exchange for Hamas terrorists currently imprisoned. 

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“I’m keeping my hope and holding on and just waiting – waiting to hug Keith, and waiting for all the families, to get their families back,” Aviva said. “We need to get them back.”

Aviva said she dreams of the moment that she gets to hug her husband again and watch their grandchildren “jump into his arms.” 

“We’ll be the happiest people on Earth,” she said. “All the hostages, I can’t imagine them coming home. It’ll be just the happiest moment for all of the families. We need it to happen.”

Reports in recent weeks suggest there is an increased sense of optimism in bringing home the hostages, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged some caution when speaking with MSNBC Morning Joe on Thursday when he said, “We are encouraged because this should happen, and it should happen because Hamas is at a point where the cavalry it thought might come to the rescue isn’t coming to the rescue, [Hezbollah’s] not coming to the rescue, [Iran’s] not coming to the rescue.”

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“In the absence of that, I think the pressure is on Hamas to finally get to yes,” he added. “But look, I think we also have to be very realistic.  We’ve had these Lucy and the football moments several times over the last months where we thought we were there, and the football gets pulled away.

“The real question is: Is Hamas capable of making a decision and getting to yes?  We’ve been fanning out with every possible partner on this to try to get the necessary pressure exerted on Hamas to say yes,” Blinken added.  

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Trump threatens to take back control of Panama Canal over ‘ridiculous fees’

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Trump threatens to take back control of Panama Canal over ‘ridiculous fees’

Trump also hinted at China’s growing influence around the canal, which connects the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans.

United States President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to demand control of the Panama Canal after accusing Panama of charging excessive rates on US ships passing through one of the busiest waterways in the world.

“Our Navy and Commerce have been treated in a very unfair and injudicious way. The fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on Saturday.

“This complete ‘rip-off’ of our Country will immediately stop.”

The US largely built the canal in 1914 and administrated territory surrounding the passage for decades. But Washington fully handed control of the canal to Panama in 1999 after a period of joint administration.

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Trump also hinted at China’s growing influence around the canal, which connects the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans.

“It was solely for Panama to manage, not China, or anyone else,” he said. “We would and will NEVER let it fall into the wrong hands!”

The post was an exceedingly rare example of a US leader saying he could push a sovereign country to hand over territory.

“It was not given for the benefit of others, but merely as a token of cooperation with us and Panama. If the moral and legal principles of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, and without question,” Trump said.

Trump’s tariff plan

It also underlines an expected shift in US diplomacy under Trump, who has not historically shied away from threatening allies and using rhetoric when dealing with counterparts.

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Last month, Trump said he would impose tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports on day one of his administration and that the measures would remain until the “invasion” of undocumented migrants and drugs came to an end.

“Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” he posted on his Truth Social platform.

Authorities in Panama did not immediately react to Trump’s post.

An estimated 5 percent of global maritime traffic passes through the Panama Canal, which allows ships travelling between Asia and the US East Coast to avoid the long, hazardous route around the southern tip of South America.

The Panama Canal Authority reported in October that the waterway had earned record revenues of nearly $5bn in the last fiscal year.

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