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The G7 wants to cap the price of Russian oil. It won’t be easy.

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The G7 wants to cap the price of Russian oil. It won’t be easy.

Because the conflict in Ukraine nears its eighth month with no decision in sight, Western international locations are stepping up efforts to strip Russia of its largest supply of revenue: oil.

The West suspects the Kremlin is bankrolling the invasion with its earnings from the continued sale of fossil fuels, which make up over 40% of its finances.

This is the reason the world’s largest economies making up the Group of Seven (G7) have pledged to place a cap on the worth of Russian oil offered around the globe.

This cover would forestall Russian cargoes from promoting oil that exceeds the still-undefined G7 restrict. Consequently, Russia can be disadvantaged of a good portion of the oil revenues that it could in any other case earn with out the cap.

In response to Russia’s central financial institution, exports of crude oil accounted for €113 billion in 2021, on high of the €70 billion earned from refined merchandise, akin to gasoline and diesel. 

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This 12 months’s numbers are on the same trajectory: within the first six months of the conflict, Russia made €158 billion from fossil gasoline commerce, two-thirds of which (€102 billion) got here from the oil trade, in response to CREA, a analysis centre that tracks Russia’s exports. The European Union was the biggest purchaser.

However the state of affairs will quickly change as 5 December marks the ultimate deadline for EU international locations to ban all imports of Russian seaborne crude. Two months later, on 5 February, they are going to be compelled to cast off all refined petroleum merchandise.

Out of all sanctions imposed by the bloc, this gradual ban on Russian oil is arguably essentially the most radical resolution owing to its probably disruptive influence on the economies of each Russia and Europe. It was additionally topic to fraught negotiations between EU international locations.

The West now plans to transcend nationwide embargoes.

A global worth cap “will assist ship a serious blow for Russian funds and can each hinder Russia’s means to battle its unprovoked conflict in Ukraine and hasten the deterioration of the Russian financial system,” mentioned US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

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However analysts warn the G7 initiative is untested and ridden with dangers and unknowns, a lot of which escape Western management. A botched implementation, they are saying, may reverberate on a world scale.

A looming conflict of cartels

Though interlinked, the EU embargo and the G7 cap are very completely different.

For the EU, the choice was comparatively easy, even when controversial: the 27 international locations, performing as a single market, resolved to cease shopping for provides of Russia’s seaborne oil. (Pipeline flows have been exempted on the request of landlocked international locations.)

The EU ban was a client alternative for a home market whereas the G7 worth cap is one thing else totally.

International locations intend to ban their banking, insurance coverage and delivery companies from offering providers to Russian firms that promote oil at a worth that exceeds the restrict set by the G7.

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For instance: if Russia is promoting its Urals crude oil at $75 a barrel and the G7 cap is about at $50 a barrel, Western firms will solely be allowed to service Russian tankers that carry oil with a price ticket of $50 or beneath. Something above that stage would activate the prohibition.

On this instance, Russia would lose $25 per barrel offered.

However this is the primary catch: Moscow is already promoting its Urals crude at a reduced worth in comparison with the Brent benchmark. The Urals-Brent distinction, which was lower than $2 in January, now hovers round $23 per barrel.

China and India have taken benefit of the low cost, ramping up purchases of Russian crude and undermining the West’s united entrance.

A modest G7 worth cap would due to this fact depart the established order principally intact.

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If the G7 chooses as an alternative to use a extra stringent and stifling cap, Russia may cease promoting barrels altogether, a market disruption that may immediately hit creating international locations.

“There is a solution to adapt the worth cap relying on market developments,” mentioned a senior EU official, who was not allowed to talk on the report. “The G7 cap needs to be set at a stage through which Russia continues to be keen to promote.”

Oil costs change daily and are topic to supply-demand variations available in the market, which stay basically on the mercy of OPEC Plus, the highly effective organisation of oil-exporting nations that features the likes of Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Russia.

On the exact same day the EU permitted the authorized foundation to underpin the G7 cap, OPEC Plus agreed to chop its manufacturing by a larger-than-expected two million barrels a day in a bid to spice up costs. The group cited the unsure world outlook as a motive for the discount.

“We might reasonably be pre-emptive than be sorry,” mentioned Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s power minister.

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The transfer resulted within the costs of Brent and Urals crude instantly going up.

The timing of OPEC’s announcement didn’t go unnoticed in Brussels and in Washington.

“The president [Joe Biden] is disillusioned by the short-sighted resolution by OPEC Plus,” US officers mentioned in a press release. “This resolution may have essentially the most adverse influence on lower- and middle-income international locations which can be already reeling from elevated power costs.”

The coincidence of occasions uncovered the inherent vulnerabilities of the G7 worth cap and set the stage for a possible conflict of cartels.

“Russia is a large oil geopolitical participant and now sits with many allies in OPEC Plus. So the G7 transfer is one to deliver a cartel in opposition to OPEC, who can be scared this may set a precedent,” mentioned Ben McWilliams, an power analyst on the Bruegel assume tank.

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“OPEC is not going to just like the idea of oil worth caps. It is a push in direction of ‘consumers management’ available in the market.” McWilliams informed Euronews. “They could react badly and be pushed in direction of Russia.”

Alternate options to Western dominance

In addition to the inevitable pricing variations and OPEC’s mighty sway, the G7 faces one other yet-unanswered query: can Russia’s oil commerce survive with out Western firms?

Industrial oil tankers want insurance coverage to cowl the prices of incidents past their management, akin to delays, harm to provides, leakage, theft and even conflict.

The G7 believes the dominant place loved by EU and UK-based insurance coverage companies will make it practically unattainable for Russian cargoes to search out protection elsewhere.

As a part of its gradual embargo, the EU imposed a complete ban on offering this sort of service however this can be eased if the G7 manages to introduce the worth cap. European insurers will then be allowed to service Russian tankers provided that their crude barrels don’t exceed the restrict.

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The same prohibition will apply to the supply of delivery providers. Greece has the world’s largest fleet of oil tankers, a lot of which assist Russia promote oil around the globe.

Right here, a brand new impediment emerges: below maritime regulation, ships are allowed to sail below the flag of any nation, no matter who owns the ships.

The apply, often called the “flag of comfort,” allows homeowners to keep away from excessive taxes and stiff rules. Re-flagging is widespread: about 40% of the worldwide fleet is registered in Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands, regardless of these international locations barely proudly owning any vessels themselves.

In its newest raft of sanctions, the EU tried to shut this loophole by increasing its providers ban to any vessel that sails below a non-EU flag and carries Russian oil above the G7 worth cap. However neither Panama, Libera nor the Marshall Islands are a part of the G7 and are due to this fact not obliged to toe the road.

Whereas Western international locations attempt to use their insurance coverage companies and huge maritime fleets as leverage to pressure the Kremlin’s hand, Russian cargoes may discover different suppliers to switch the banned providers.

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This makes the G7’s success contingent upon the participation of non-Western international locations, together with Russia’s high shoppers: India and China. The EU continues to be awaiting the cap’s exact particulars earlier than giving its last inexperienced mild. 

“Washington’s means to cobble a broad coalition in implementing the worth cap, notably to incorporate international locations with main delivery industries akin to Panama and Liberia, and safe express or tacit participation from some large Russian oil consumers led by India can be key signposts for the EU’s willingness to completely again the plan,” mentioned a bunch of analysts on the Eurasia Group, a threat consultancy.

The US Treasury has estimated that capping the worth of Russian oil on the worldwide stage would end in $160 billion (€165 billion) in annual financial savings for the 50 largest rising economies, one thing which may entice different international locations to throw their help behind the G7 initiative.

But when the cap triggers unintended penalties, akin to onerous obstacles for maritime transport, sudden worth shocks or a widespread scarcity of provides, the G7 may make extra enemies than allies. Beijing has mentioned oil is a “vitally vital” world commodity that shouldn’t be put in danger.

“It is extremely optimistic to imagine this [price cap] can work,” Ben McWilliams mentioned. 

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“In actual fact, I do not imagine even the architects assume it’ll work completely. They simply favor a ‘leaky system’ through which Russia can nonetheless make some revenue above the cap reasonably than a state of affairs through which Russia is totally compelled off market.”

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‘SNL’: Colin Jost Forced to Tell Dirty Jokes About Wife Scarlett Johansson as She Watches Backstage: ‘Oh My Gosh, She’s So Genuinely Worried!’

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‘SNL’: Colin Jost Forced to Tell Dirty Jokes About Wife Scarlett Johansson as She Watches Backstage: ‘Oh My Gosh, She’s So Genuinely Worried!’

For several years, the final “Saturday Night Live” episode of the year includes a segment of “Weekend Update” in which co-anchors Colin Jost and Michael Che write jokes that the other must read for the first time on the air. For Jost, this typically has meant Che forces him to say a litany of jokes about race and racism that are horrifically tone deaf and over-the-top — and, in context, often quite funny.

This year, however, Che found a new way to torture Jost: Making him say outrageous things about his wife, Scarlett Johansson — while a camera captured Johansson’s live reactions in the hallway outside of the studio. The actor appeared during the episode’s cold open to welcome host Martin Short into the Five Timers Club, and Che apparently could not resist the chance to have some fun at the couple’s expense.

The bit started with Jost reading that this year, he was going to “read all the jokes in ‘Black voice’ so I don’t get in trouble,” which led into Jost reading a joke about Kamala Harris saying she still supports the idea of slavery reparations. 

“Well, damn girl, me too,” Jost said, barely able to get the words out through his exasperated laughter. “Because white people deserve our money back for all those slaves that ran away.”

That was a mere appetizer for what Jost was required to say about his wife. Just the sight of her face in an image over Jost’s shoulder was enough to have some people in the audience screaming in anticipation of what was to come.

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“I want to dedicate this next joke to my boo, Scarlett Johansson,” Jost said, and then a camera cut to a nervous Johansson, clutching a drink as she watched Jost from a monitor above her.

“No! No!” Jost said, as he realized what was happening. “Oh my gosh, she’s so genuinely worried!”

Then he got to the business of reading, for the first time, the jokes Che had written for him.

“Y’all know Scarlett just celebrated her 40th birthday, which means I’m about to get up out of there!” Jost said, again exploding in guffaws before he could even finish the line. After he regained his composure — and Che reminded him that there was more to the joke — Jost continued. “Shiz! Nah, nah. I’m just playin’,” he said. “We just had a kid together, and y’all ain’t see no pictures of him yet, because he’s Black as hell!” — at which point, a Photoshopped image of Jost and Johansson holding a Black baby appeared over Jost’s shoulder.

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Che certainly had his fair share of comedic humiliation, forced to make jokes about “Moana 2” and Jeffrey Epstein, Jay-Z, and his promise to Diddy that “I will help get you off.” But then the spotlight turned back to Jost, who ended the segment with a joke involving his wife that is so R-rated that it genuinely startled Johansson. Warning: This is not for the faint of heart!

“Costco has removed their roast beef sandwich from its menu, but I ain’t tripping,” Jost said. “I be eating roast beef every night since my wife had the kid!” After the audience, Jost and Che all stopped laughing, Jost read the final lines. “Nah, nah, I just playin’ baby. You know I don’t go downtown! Shiz! That’s gay as hell!”

Martin Short hosted the episode with Hozier as musical guest. You can watch the full segment below:

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Wife of US hostage Keith Siegel pleads for holiday miracle: 'we need to get them back'

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Wife of US hostage Keith Siegel pleads for holiday miracle: 'we need to get them back'

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FIRST ON FOX – Aviva Siegel, the wife of American hostage Kieth Siegel and a former hostage herself, is pleading with everyone and anyone involved in the hostage negotiations to get her husband, and the others, freed from Hamas captivity after they have spent more than 440 days in deplorable conditions. 

“Hamas released a video of Keith, and I just saw the picture,” Aviva told Fox News Digital in an emotional interview in reference to a video Hamas released in April. “He looks terrible. His bones are out, and you can see that he’s lost a lot of weight.

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“He doesn’t look like himself. And I’m just so worried about him, because so [many] days and minutes have passed since that video that we received,” she said. “I just don’t know what kind of Keith that we’re going to get back.”

Keith Samuel Siegel, 64, remains hostage in Gaza by Hamas (Hostage Family Forum)

7 US HOSTAGES STILL HELD BY HAMAS TERRORISTS AS FAMILIES PLEAD FOR THEIR RELEASE: ‘THIS IS URGENT’

“I’m worried about all the hostages, because the conditions that they are in are the worst conditions that any human being could go through,” Aviva said. “I was there. I touched death. I know what it feels being underneath the ground with no oxygen. 

“Keith and I were just left there. We were left there to die,” she added. 

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Aviva and her husband of, at the time 42 years, were brutally abducted from their home in Kibbutz Kfar Aza by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, and held together for 51 days before she was released in the November 2023 hostage exchange after suffering from a stomach infection that left her incredibly ill. 

She has since tirelessly fought for Kieth’s release, meeting with top officials in the U.S. and Israel, traveling to the United States nine times in the last year and becoming a prominent advocate for the hostages. 

“I just hope that he’s with other people from Israel, and if he has them, he’s going to be okay,” Aviva said. “He’s just the person that will make them feel that they’re together. That’s what he did when I was there – he was 100% for me and the hostages that we were with.”

Aviva Siegel

TEL AVIV, ISRAEL – MARCH 30: Released hostage Aviva Siegel, wife of hostage Keith Siegel, speaks during the final weekly ‘bring them home now’ rally on March 30, 2024 in Tel Aviv, Israel. According to the families of hostages forum, this would be the last week a rally is held at ‘hostage square’ citing that the government is not serious about negotiations and instead will be protesting in front of the Knesset from now on.  (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images)

 “If you get kidnapped, get kidnapped with Keith, because he was outstanding to everybody. He was strong for all of us. And I’m sure that he’s keeping strong and keeping his hope to come out,” she said. 

Aviva recounted their last moments together before they were separated ahead of her release, telling Fox News Digital, “When I left him, I told him to be the strongest – that he needs to be strong for me, and I’ll be strong for him.”

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PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY UNDER PRESSURE AMID RISING RESISTANCE, POPULARITY OF IRAN-BACKED TERROR GROUPS

Top security officials from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar have been pushing Israel and Hamas to agree to a cease-fire and the return of hostages. 

Reports on Thursday suggested that negotiators are pushing for a 42-day cease-fire in which 34 of the at least 50 hostages still assessed to be alive, could be exchanged. 

Hamas is also believed to continue to hold at least 38 who were taken hostage and then killed while in captivity, along with at least seven who are believed to have been killed on Oct. 7, 2023 and then taken into Gaza. 

Though all the hostages are believed to have been held in deplorable conditions, the children, women – including the female IDF soldiers – the sick and the elderly have reportedly been front listed to be freed first in exchange for Hamas terrorists currently imprisoned. 

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“I’m keeping my hope and holding on and just waiting – waiting to hug Keith, and waiting for all the families, to get their families back,” Aviva said. “We need to get them back.”

Aviva said she dreams of the moment that she gets to hug her husband again and watch their grandchildren “jump into his arms.” 

“We’ll be the happiest people on Earth,” she said. “All the hostages, I can’t imagine them coming home. It’ll be just the happiest moment for all of the families. We need it to happen.”

Reports in recent weeks suggest there is an increased sense of optimism in bringing home the hostages, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged some caution when speaking with MSNBC Morning Joe on Thursday when he said, “We are encouraged because this should happen, and it should happen because Hamas is at a point where the cavalry it thought might come to the rescue isn’t coming to the rescue, [Hezbollah’s] not coming to the rescue, [Iran’s] not coming to the rescue.”

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“In the absence of that, I think the pressure is on Hamas to finally get to yes,” he added. “But look, I think we also have to be very realistic.  We’ve had these Lucy and the football moments several times over the last months where we thought we were there, and the football gets pulled away.

“The real question is: Is Hamas capable of making a decision and getting to yes?  We’ve been fanning out with every possible partner on this to try to get the necessary pressure exerted on Hamas to say yes,” Blinken added.  

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Trump threatens to take back control of Panama Canal over ‘ridiculous fees’

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Trump threatens to take back control of Panama Canal over ‘ridiculous fees’

Trump also hinted at China’s growing influence around the canal, which connects the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans.

United States President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to demand control of the Panama Canal after accusing Panama of charging excessive rates on US ships passing through one of the busiest waterways in the world.

“Our Navy and Commerce have been treated in a very unfair and injudicious way. The fees being charged by Panama are ridiculous,” Trump posted on his Truth Social platform on Saturday.

“This complete ‘rip-off’ of our Country will immediately stop.”

The US largely built the canal in 1914 and administrated territory surrounding the passage for decades. But Washington fully handed control of the canal to Panama in 1999 after a period of joint administration.

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Trump also hinted at China’s growing influence around the canal, which connects the Atlantic to the Pacific oceans.

“It was solely for Panama to manage, not China, or anyone else,” he said. “We would and will NEVER let it fall into the wrong hands!”

The post was an exceedingly rare example of a US leader saying he could push a sovereign country to hand over territory.

“It was not given for the benefit of others, but merely as a token of cooperation with us and Panama. If the moral and legal principles of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not followed, then we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, in full, and without question,” Trump said.

Trump’s tariff plan

It also underlines an expected shift in US diplomacy under Trump, who has not historically shied away from threatening allies and using rhetoric when dealing with counterparts.

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Last month, Trump said he would impose tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports on day one of his administration and that the measures would remain until the “invasion” of undocumented migrants and drugs came to an end.

“Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long-simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!” he posted on his Truth Social platform.

Authorities in Panama did not immediately react to Trump’s post.

An estimated 5 percent of global maritime traffic passes through the Panama Canal, which allows ships travelling between Asia and the US East Coast to avoid the long, hazardous route around the southern tip of South America.

The Panama Canal Authority reported in October that the waterway had earned record revenues of nearly $5bn in the last fiscal year.

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